小师弟的个人主页 - 老虎社区

小师弟

小师弟

千军万马，谁称王～

IP属地：北京

32关注

507粉丝

20主题

0勋章

11-15

$Luminar Technologies, Inc.(LAZR)$ 没有量

11-14

$Luminar Technologies, Inc.(LAZR)$ 真烦，1.2追的

11-11

$Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$ 难过，你咋还跌了呢

10-31

$Aurora Innovation(AUR)$ 止不住？？？你要跌多少

10-23

$Lumen Technologies(LUMN)$ 高位追的还有解套的机会吗

10-22

$Lumen Technologies(LUMN)$ 又是被埋的[流泪]

10-17

啥意思没看懂，课代表有吗[流泪]

证监会发布文远知行美股发行上市备案通知书

10-16

$PHOENIX MOTOR INC.(PEV)$ 无语啊

10-07

$宏光半导体(06908)$ 来回被收割，呵呵

10-04

$闪送(FLX)$ 一般开盘涨的，都中不了

10-04

$休斯敦能源(HUSA)$ 没缘分睡觉💤

10-01

$HomesToLife(HTLM)$ 果然容易中签的都不咋地

10-01

$HomesToLife(HTLM)$ 中了100股[捂脸]

09-30

$高途(GOTU)$ 追高了[流泪] [流泪] 4.5

08-21

A股跌，别带上全球股市哈，上次大跌到现在基本都回去了，A呢。一路跌

抱歉，原内容已删除

08-12

$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 祝福A股长虹，某国像A股一样繁荣富强，

07-24

起码比癌股要强

美股的辉煌，还能靠超级巨头撑多久？

04-24

$Inotiv, Inc.(NOTV)$ 没人[流泪]

01-17

$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ 使劲跌，让做空的人赚，国内A股已经跌惨了，特色股灾，但是还是一切向好，稳定增长，赞赞赞

2023-08-14

$A50指数主连 2308(CNmain)$ 单方面屠杀？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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真烦，1.2追的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAZR\">$Luminar Technologies, Inc.(LAZR)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; 真烦，1.2追的","text":"$Luminar Technologies, Inc.(LAZR)$ 真烦，1.2追的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370688542175240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":369961731580288,"gmtCreate":1731340385730,"gmtModify":1731340387026,"author":{"id":"3491893324400809","authorId":"3491893324400809","name":"小师弟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a89d64ba515fda95341bb784b2a7f97","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491893324400809","authorIdStr":"3491893324400809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CIFR\">$Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$&nbsp;</a> 难过，你咋还跌了呢","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CIFR\">$Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$&nbsp;</a> 难过，你咋还跌了呢","text":"$Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$ 难过，你咋还跌了呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369961731580288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":80,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366017836687504,"gmtCreate":1730386085160,"gmtModify":1730386086781,"author":{"id":"3491893324400809","authorId":"3491893324400809","name":"小师弟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a89d64ba515fda95341bb784b2a7f97","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491893324400809","authorIdStr":"3491893324400809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AUR\">$Aurora Innovation(AUR)$</a> 止不住？？？你要跌多少","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AUR\">$Aurora Innovation(AUR)$</a> 止不住？？？你要跌多少","text":"$Aurora Innovation(AUR)$ 止不住？？？你要跌多少","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366017836687504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362984492212552,"gmtCreate":1729660697687,"gmtModify":1729660699033,"author":{"id":"3491893324400809","authorId":"3491893324400809","name":"小师弟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a89d64ba515fda95341bb784b2a7f97","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491893324400809","authorIdStr":"3491893324400809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUMN\">$Lumen Technologies(LUMN)$&nbsp;</a> 高位追的还有解套的机会吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUMN\">$Lumen Technologies(LUMN)$&nbsp;</a> 高位追的还有解套的机会吗","text":"$Lumen Technologies(LUMN)$ 高位追的还有解套的机会吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362984492212552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362658379157696,"gmtCreate":1729581486581,"gmtModify":1729581490876,"author":{"id":"3491893324400809","authorId":"3491893324400809","name":"小师弟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a89d64ba515fda95341bb784b2a7f97","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491893324400809","authorIdStr":"3491893324400809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUMN\">$Lumen Technologies(LUMN)$&nbsp;</a> 又是被埋的[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUMN\">$Lumen Technologies(LUMN)$&nbsp;</a> 又是被埋的[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$Lumen Technologies(LUMN)$ 又是被埋的[流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d9cfd9a42427693af8913535428bb9","width":"1290","height":"2796"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362658379157696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360977708093680,"gmtCreate":1729164838877,"gmtModify":1729164840833,"author":{"id":"3491893324400809","authorId":"3491893324400809","name":"小师弟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a89d64ba515fda95341bb784b2a7f97","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491893324400809","authorIdStr":"3491893324400809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"啥意思没看懂，课代表有吗[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"啥意思没看懂，课代表有吗[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"啥意思没看懂，课代表有吗[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360977708093680","repostId":"1195011860","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195011860","pubTimestamp":1729164128,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195011860?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-17 19:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"证监会发布文远知行美股发行上市备案通知书","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195011860","media":"中国证监会","summary":"拟发行不超过159,045,000股普通股。","content":"<html><head></head><body><h4 id=\"id_144369298\" style=\"text-align: left;\">关于WeRide Inc.（文远知行公司）境外发行上市备案通知书</h4><p>WeRide Inc.（文远知行公司） ：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">你公司通过境内运营实体广州景骐科技有限公司提交的境外首次公开发行备案材料收悉。根据《中华人民共和国证券法》《境内企业境外发行证券和上市管理试行办法》等规定，我会对备案事项通知如下：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一、你公司拟发行不超过159,045,000股普通股并在美国纳斯达克证券交易所上市。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">二、自本备案通知书出具之日起至本次境外发行上市结束前，你公司如发生重大事项，应根据境内企业境外发行上市有关规定，通过中国证监会备案管理信息系统报告。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三、你公司完成境外发行上市后15个工作日内，应通过中国证监会备案管理信息系统报告发行上市情况。你公司在境外发行上市过程中应严格遵守境内外有关法律、法规和规则。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">四、你公司自本备案通知书出具之日起12个月内未完成境外发行上市，拟继续推进的，应当更新备案材料。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本备案通知书仅对企业境外发行上市备案信息予以确认，不表明中国证监会对该企业证券的投资价值或者投资者的收益作出实质性判断或者保证，也不表明中国证监会对企业备案材料的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证或者认定。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> </p><p style=\"text-align: right;\">                               中国证监会国际合作司</p><p style=\"text-align: right;\">                                  2024年10月17日</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1573813229493","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>证监会发布文远知行美股发行上市备案通知书</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://www.csrc.gov.cn/csrc/c105984/c7512928/content.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7192d65860af906b679f55d20dc14c12","relate_stocks":{"WRD":"文远知行"},"source_url":"http://www.csrc.gov.cn/csrc/c105984/c7512928/content.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195011860","content_text":"关于WeRide Inc.（文远知行公司）境外发行上市备案通知书WeRide Inc.（文远知行公司） 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祝福A股长虹，某国像A股一样繁荣富强，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/337592663929096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331050011414712,"gmtCreate":1721829683493,"gmtModify":1721829685341,"author":{"id":"3491893324400809","authorId":"3491893324400809","name":"小师弟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a89d64ba515fda95341bb784b2a7f97","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491893324400809","authorIdStr":"3491893324400809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"起码比癌股要强","listText":"起码比癌股要强","text":"起码比癌股要强","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331050011414712","repostId":"2453087364","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2453087364","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1721792700,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2453087364?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-24 11:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股的辉煌，还能靠超级巨头撑多久？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2453087364","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"近几年来，少数几家“超级大盘股”成为带动市场上涨的中流砥柱。标普500指数中的前十大“超级大盘股”占据了指数超过三分之一的比重。股票回购的影响最后，公司股票回购行为，规模预计接近1万亿美元并在2024年超越这一数字，可能对现有市场领导者的地位构成压力。标准普尔500指数回报与股票年度回购变化比例只要公司持续成为自家股票的最大买家，超级大盘股公司就能够保持市场主导地位。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>近几年来，少数几家“超级大盘股”成为带动市场上涨的中流砥柱。</p><p><strong>问题是，这些超级大盘股还能保持这一状态吗？</strong>这个问题很关键，因为Apollo提供的图表已经显示，上市公司数量持续下降。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d2e86ee37d4eb3846fcf1b399d6d68\" title=\"美国上市公司数量\"/><span>美国上市公司数量</span></p><p>数量下降背后的原因有很多，包括合并收购、破产、杠杆收购以及私募股权操作。例如，Twitter（现称X）曾是一家上市公司，在埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)将其私有化之前是上市公司。随着上市公司数量减少，虽然市场上的资金在增加，但机会却减少了。</p><p>这种现象对于需要在短时间内部署大量资金大型机构而言尤其明显。如今，在罗素2000指数中，近40%的公司目前处于亏损状态，进一步限制了资金的选择范围。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2743f1427164daf8b2dd11227a98e35\" title=\"罗素2000指数中负收益公司的百分比\"/><span>罗素2000指数中负收益公司的百分比</span></p><p>然而，将市场资本集中于少数几家公司的情况并非没有先例。在20世纪60年代和70年代，有“Nifty 50”（漂亮50）；到了90年代末，有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>系统这样的互联网宠儿。而今，与“人工智能(AI)”相关的公司成为了焦点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e4081d14a6e4f508172c66dfa0d1b4f\" title=\"美国股票市场集中度\"/><span>美国股票市场集中度</span></p><p>如上图所示，过去的领头羊并不是今日的佼佼者。值得注意的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>在2024年首次被列为“超级大盘股”公司之一。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef3b8f7da103422f9e691ea9787ba0a9\" title=\"市值最大的股票\"/><span>市值最大的股票</span></p><p>然而，投资者必须考虑<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>和$亚马逊(AMZN)在未来十年是否还能保持领导地位。就像昔日的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">美国电话电报</a>公司(AT&amp;T)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>曾是华尔街的宠儿一样，今天的科技股也可能成为历史的遗迹。</p><h2 id=\"id_53974116\">盈利能力的增长</h2><p>盈利能力的增长是解答上述问题的一个核心因素。显而易见，当企业的盈利呈现增长态势时，投资者愿意支付更高的价格。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a748a0f6add48b185eac6342147f0e2\" title=\"标准普尔500指数盈利水平按年的变化率\"/><span>标准普尔500指数盈利水平按年的变化率</span></p><p>然而，2023年的状况是，所有盈利增长均源自指数中排名前七的“超级市值”股票。若不计这七只股票，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数实际上将面临盈利负增长的局面。</p><p>这种情形很可能导致市场表现更为疲软。值得注意的是，尽管分析师们乐观预测，除了这七家公司之外的493家股票的盈利增长会在2024年末加速，但鉴于经济数据放缓的趋势，这些期望可能最终落空。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc606071ea934818be587ee521b75539\" title=\"美股七巨头的盈利增长\"/><span>美股七巨头的盈利增长</span></p><p>在接下来的十年里，诸如微软、苹果和谷歌母公司Alphabet等企业将面临如何保持营收快速增长以维持高盈利增长率的挑战。鉴于英伟达作为一家新兴公司在快速成长的行业中，它能够显著增加营收，从而支撑其较高的估值倍数。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c15614826664c2f95e46f86c55ab805\" title=\"总营收\"/><span>总营收</span></p><p>然而，因为大数定律，苹果作为成熟企业，无法实现如此高速的营收增长。为了更直观地说明这个问题，我加入了一个五年平均营收增长率的指标。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fdd3b40744e4e3b8379320bcaadae66\" title=\"总营收\"/><span>总营收</span></p><p>这就是华尔街谚语“树不会长到天上去”的由来。在投资领域，这句话警示着那些高增长却逐渐成熟的公司所面临的风险。在某些情况下，公司基于不切实际的预期，认为即便公司规模扩大，仍能保持相同的高速增长，因而获得过高的估值。</p><p>举个例子，如果一家公司当前的年营收为100亿美元，且增长率为200%，很容易想象它能在几年内实现<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>的营收。</p><p>然而，公司规模越大，维持高增长率就越困难。比如，一家占有1%市场份额的公司，很容易将份额翻倍至2%。但当一家公司的市场份额达到80%时，想要销量翻番就需要开拓新市场或进入自己尚不占优势的领域。此外，随着公司规模的扩大，通常会出现效率下降和创新力减弱的现象，这是规模不经济效应的体现。</p><p>正因为如此，许多当前市值权重最高的股票，十年后可能不再是榜单上的常客。就像AT&amp;T已成为过去“新技术”的遗迹，或许几年后，当智慧手机不再成为必需品时，苹果也将遭遇相似的命运。</p><h2 id=\"id_1837711550\">被动投资的影响</h2><p>在过去的二十年中，被动投资的兴起对金融市场带来了有趣的变革。标普500指数中的前十大“超级大盘股”占据了指数超过三分之一的比重。</p><p>换句话说，这前十名股票的1%涨幅，相当于其余90%股票同样涨幅的总和。当投资者购买被动型ETF的股份时，ETF必须购入其基础公司的所有股票。鉴于过去一年大量资金流入ETF，尤其是流入这前十名股票，市场表面的稳定也就不足为奇了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deff6e2a42fa4e558f7499cff4dec177\" title=\"前十大股票的市值权重\"/><span>前十大股票的市值权重</span></p><p>毋庸置疑，这种强制性的资金注入到市值最大的股票中，使得市场表现看起来比实际情况更为强劲。这也是为什么标普500的市值加权指数 (NYSE:RSP)在近年超越了等权重指数的表现。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fef23bc31ed4ac381bf460187ebb13c\" title=\"市值加权指数VS等权指数的差距\"/><span>市值加权指数VS等权指数的差距</span></p><p>然而，投资者常常忽视这把双刃剑的另一面。以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(NASDAQ:TSLA)为例，假设在英伟达（Nvidia）进入前十之前，特斯拉在标普500指数中的权重为5%。随着英伟达股价的快速上涨，其市值增加，而特斯拉股价下跌导致其在指数中的权重降低。因此，所有跟踪指数的基金、被动基金管理者、投资组织者者等，不得不增加英伟达的持股比例，同时减少特斯拉的持有量。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f8a28398364c4cb949a8651606cdc2\" title=\"英伟达vs特斯拉市值\"/><span>英伟达vs特斯拉市值</span></p><p>未来，无论哪些新一代的公司赢得华尔街的青睐，当前的领头羊可能就会跌出前十，因为“被动”资金流需要卖出今天的领导者，以便买入更多明日之星。这种机制下，市场权重的调整将是一个持续的过程，反映出被动投资对市场动态的深刻影响。</p><h2 id=\"id_3491927420\">股票回购的影响</h2><p>最后，公司股票回购行为，规模预计接近1万亿美元并在2024年超越这一数字，可能对现有市场领导者的地位构成压力。这是因为具备雄厚现金实力执行巨额回购计划的大公司，如苹果、微软、谷歌母公司Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)及英伟达，主导着回购市场。以苹果为例，其一家公司在2024年的回购总额中就占了超过10%的份额。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d56f8f0581f40a2b13c3f2988544902\" title=\"标准普尔500指数年度回购规模\"/><span>标准普尔500指数年度回购规模</span></p><p>如果你还未意识到股票回购对于维持大公司市场主导地位的重要性，下面的数学计算或许能帮助理解：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>养老金和共同基金 = 净卖出2.7万亿美元</p></li><li><p>家庭和外资 = 净买入2.4万亿美元</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>小计 = 净卖出0.3万亿美元</p></li></ul></li><li><p>公司（回购）= 净买入5.5万亿美元</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>净总计 = 净买入5.2万亿美元</p></li></ul></li></ul><p>换句话说，自2000年以来，公司在净股权购买方面贡献了100%的资金。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6df85cf7af464c3b9456a260c27e2a92\" title=\"2000年以来美国股票的净买盘\"/><span>2000年以来美国股票的净买盘</span></p><p>因此，公司股票回购活动的起伏与市场表现高度相关，这一点不应让人感到意外。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bae3b5a8fea4caba2ecccf5627bbc76\" title=\"标准普尔500指数回报与股票年度回购变化比例\"/><span>标准普尔500指数回报与股票年度回购变化比例</span></p><p>只要公司持续成为自家股票的最大买家，超级大盘股公司就能够保持市场主导地位。当然，当前的回购速度终将结束，原因可能包括：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>税法的变更</p></li><li><p>禁止股票回购（过去因操纵市场而被禁止）</p></li><li><p>盈利能力逆转，使得回购变得艰难</p></li><li><p>经济衰退或信贷事件迫使公司采取防御姿态（如2000年、2008年、2022年）</p></li></ul><p>不论出于何种原因，回购计划的反转可能会严重削弱现有领头羊股票的市场控制力。</p><p>我无法预知触发这种反转的具体事件或时间点，但可以肯定的是，一旦回购活动终止，由于大公司股票回购为这些顶级股票提供了全部的净股权购买资金，超级大盘股公司的统治地位将受到冲击。</p><h2 id=\"id_1073639172\">结论</h2><p>当前“超级大盘股”的主导地位实属预料之中。正如前文所述，这些企业是标普500指数大部分的盈利增长和营收来源，同时也是自家股票的主要买家。过去十年间，它们恰好处于历次技术革命的核心，包括当前的人工智能浪潮。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5028f5cb79304996a4d119f14c6e5109\" title=\"资产泡沫历史\"/><span>资产泡沫历史</span></p><p>然而，鉴于科技与经济瞬息万变的本质，可以预见，过去十年的领军企业未必能继续引领下一个十年。对于投资者而言，理解每个市场周期的内在规律并据此做出投资决策至关重要。然而，那些在近百年来极端估值水平下购入股票，期待这些股票在未来十年依然独领风骚的投资者，可能会遭受打击。</p><p>虽然多种因素支撑着当前的长期牛市行情，然而历史经验表明，盲目投资往往导致不尽如人意的结果。</p><p>投资应当顺应时代的变迁！</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股的辉煌，还能靠超级巨头撑多久？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-24 11:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>近几年来，少数几家“超级大盘股”成为带动市场上涨的中流砥柱。</p><p><strong>问题是，这些超级大盘股还能保持这一状态吗？</strong>这个问题很关键，因为Apollo提供的图表已经显示，上市公司数量持续下降。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d2e86ee37d4eb3846fcf1b399d6d68\" title=\"美国上市公司数量\"/><span>美国上市公司数量</span></p><p>数量下降背后的原因有很多，包括合并收购、破产、杠杆收购以及私募股权操作。例如，Twitter（现称X）曾是一家上市公司，在埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)将其私有化之前是上市公司。随着上市公司数量减少，虽然市场上的资金在增加，但机会却减少了。</p><p>这种现象对于需要在短时间内部署大量资金大型机构而言尤其明显。如今，在罗素2000指数中，近40%的公司目前处于亏损状态，进一步限制了资金的选择范围。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2743f1427164daf8b2dd11227a98e35\" title=\"罗素2000指数中负收益公司的百分比\"/><span>罗素2000指数中负收益公司的百分比</span></p><p>然而，将市场资本集中于少数几家公司的情况并非没有先例。在20世纪60年代和70年代，有“Nifty 50”（漂亮50）；到了90年代末，有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>系统这样的互联网宠儿。而今，与“人工智能(AI)”相关的公司成为了焦点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e4081d14a6e4f508172c66dfa0d1b4f\" title=\"美国股票市场集中度\"/><span>美国股票市场集中度</span></p><p>如上图所示，过去的领头羊并不是今日的佼佼者。值得注意的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>在2024年首次被列为“超级大盘股”公司之一。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef3b8f7da103422f9e691ea9787ba0a9\" title=\"市值最大的股票\"/><span>市值最大的股票</span></p><p>然而，投资者必须考虑<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>和$亚马逊(AMZN)在未来十年是否还能保持领导地位。就像昔日的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">美国电话电报</a>公司(AT&amp;T)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>曾是华尔街的宠儿一样，今天的科技股也可能成为历史的遗迹。</p><h2 id=\"id_53974116\">盈利能力的增长</h2><p>盈利能力的增长是解答上述问题的一个核心因素。显而易见，当企业的盈利呈现增长态势时，投资者愿意支付更高的价格。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a748a0f6add48b185eac6342147f0e2\" title=\"标准普尔500指数盈利水平按年的变化率\"/><span>标准普尔500指数盈利水平按年的变化率</span></p><p>然而，2023年的状况是，所有盈利增长均源自指数中排名前七的“超级市值”股票。若不计这七只股票，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数实际上将面临盈利负增长的局面。</p><p>这种情形很可能导致市场表现更为疲软。值得注意的是，尽管分析师们乐观预测，除了这七家公司之外的493家股票的盈利增长会在2024年末加速，但鉴于经济数据放缓的趋势，这些期望可能最终落空。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc606071ea934818be587ee521b75539\" title=\"美股七巨头的盈利增长\"/><span>美股七巨头的盈利增长</span></p><p>在接下来的十年里，诸如微软、苹果和谷歌母公司Alphabet等企业将面临如何保持营收快速增长以维持高盈利增长率的挑战。鉴于英伟达作为一家新兴公司在快速成长的行业中，它能够显著增加营收，从而支撑其较高的估值倍数。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c15614826664c2f95e46f86c55ab805\" title=\"总营收\"/><span>总营收</span></p><p>然而，因为大数定律，苹果作为成熟企业，无法实现如此高速的营收增长。为了更直观地说明这个问题，我加入了一个五年平均营收增长率的指标。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fdd3b40744e4e3b8379320bcaadae66\" title=\"总营收\"/><span>总营收</span></p><p>这就是华尔街谚语“树不会长到天上去”的由来。在投资领域，这句话警示着那些高增长却逐渐成熟的公司所面临的风险。在某些情况下，公司基于不切实际的预期，认为即便公司规模扩大，仍能保持相同的高速增长，因而获得过高的估值。</p><p>举个例子，如果一家公司当前的年营收为100亿美元，且增长率为200%，很容易想象它能在几年内实现<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>的营收。</p><p>然而，公司规模越大，维持高增长率就越困难。比如，一家占有1%市场份额的公司，很容易将份额翻倍至2%。但当一家公司的市场份额达到80%时，想要销量翻番就需要开拓新市场或进入自己尚不占优势的领域。此外，随着公司规模的扩大，通常会出现效率下降和创新力减弱的现象，这是规模不经济效应的体现。</p><p>正因为如此，许多当前市值权重最高的股票，十年后可能不再是榜单上的常客。就像AT&amp;T已成为过去“新技术”的遗迹，或许几年后，当智慧手机不再成为必需品时，苹果也将遭遇相似的命运。</p><h2 id=\"id_1837711550\">被动投资的影响</h2><p>在过去的二十年中，被动投资的兴起对金融市场带来了有趣的变革。标普500指数中的前十大“超级大盘股”占据了指数超过三分之一的比重。</p><p>换句话说，这前十名股票的1%涨幅，相当于其余90%股票同样涨幅的总和。当投资者购买被动型ETF的股份时，ETF必须购入其基础公司的所有股票。鉴于过去一年大量资金流入ETF，尤其是流入这前十名股票，市场表面的稳定也就不足为奇了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deff6e2a42fa4e558f7499cff4dec177\" title=\"前十大股票的市值权重\"/><span>前十大股票的市值权重</span></p><p>毋庸置疑，这种强制性的资金注入到市值最大的股票中，使得市场表现看起来比实际情况更为强劲。这也是为什么标普500的市值加权指数 (NYSE:RSP)在近年超越了等权重指数的表现。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fef23bc31ed4ac381bf460187ebb13c\" title=\"市值加权指数VS等权指数的差距\"/><span>市值加权指数VS等权指数的差距</span></p><p>然而，投资者常常忽视这把双刃剑的另一面。以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(NASDAQ:TSLA)为例，假设在英伟达（Nvidia）进入前十之前，特斯拉在标普500指数中的权重为5%。随着英伟达股价的快速上涨，其市值增加，而特斯拉股价下跌导致其在指数中的权重降低。因此，所有跟踪指数的基金、被动基金管理者、投资组织者者等，不得不增加英伟达的持股比例，同时减少特斯拉的持有量。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f8a28398364c4cb949a8651606cdc2\" title=\"英伟达vs特斯拉市值\"/><span>英伟达vs特斯拉市值</span></p><p>未来，无论哪些新一代的公司赢得华尔街的青睐，当前的领头羊可能就会跌出前十，因为“被动”资金流需要卖出今天的领导者，以便买入更多明日之星。这种机制下，市场权重的调整将是一个持续的过程，反映出被动投资对市场动态的深刻影响。</p><h2 id=\"id_3491927420\">股票回购的影响</h2><p>最后，公司股票回购行为，规模预计接近1万亿美元并在2024年超越这一数字，可能对现有市场领导者的地位构成压力。这是因为具备雄厚现金实力执行巨额回购计划的大公司，如苹果、微软、谷歌母公司Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)及英伟达，主导着回购市场。以苹果为例，其一家公司在2024年的回购总额中就占了超过10%的份额。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d56f8f0581f40a2b13c3f2988544902\" title=\"标准普尔500指数年度回购规模\"/><span>标准普尔500指数年度回购规模</span></p><p>如果你还未意识到股票回购对于维持大公司市场主导地位的重要性，下面的数学计算或许能帮助理解：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>养老金和共同基金 = 净卖出2.7万亿美元</p></li><li><p>家庭和外资 = 净买入2.4万亿美元</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>小计 = 净卖出0.3万亿美元</p></li></ul></li><li><p>公司（回购）= 净买入5.5万亿美元</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>净总计 = 净买入5.2万亿美元</p></li></ul></li></ul><p>换句话说，自2000年以来，公司在净股权购买方面贡献了100%的资金。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6df85cf7af464c3b9456a260c27e2a92\" title=\"2000年以来美国股票的净买盘\"/><span>2000年以来美国股票的净买盘</span></p><p>因此，公司股票回购活动的起伏与市场表现高度相关，这一点不应让人感到意外。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bae3b5a8fea4caba2ecccf5627bbc76\" title=\"标准普尔500指数回报与股票年度回购变化比例\"/><span>标准普尔500指数回报与股票年度回购变化比例</span></p><p>只要公司持续成为自家股票的最大买家，超级大盘股公司就能够保持市场主导地位。当然，当前的回购速度终将结束，原因可能包括：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>税法的变更</p></li><li><p>禁止股票回购（过去因操纵市场而被禁止）</p></li><li><p>盈利能力逆转，使得回购变得艰难</p></li><li><p>经济衰退或信贷事件迫使公司采取防御姿态（如2000年、2008年、2022年）</p></li></ul><p>不论出于何种原因，回购计划的反转可能会严重削弱现有领头羊股票的市场控制力。</p><p>我无法预知触发这种反转的具体事件或时间点，但可以肯定的是，一旦回购活动终止，由于大公司股票回购为这些顶级股票提供了全部的净股权购买资金，超级大盘股公司的统治地位将受到冲击。</p><h2 id=\"id_1073639172\">结论</h2><p>当前“超级大盘股”的主导地位实属预料之中。正如前文所述，这些企业是标普500指数大部分的盈利增长和营收来源，同时也是自家股票的主要买家。过去十年间，它们恰好处于历次技术革命的核心，包括当前的人工智能浪潮。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5028f5cb79304996a4d119f14c6e5109\" title=\"资产泡沫历史\"/><span>资产泡沫历史</span></p><p>然而，鉴于科技与经济瞬息万变的本质，可以预见，过去十年的领军企业未必能继续引领下一个十年。对于投资者而言，理解每个市场周期的内在规律并据此做出投资决策至关重要。然而，那些在近百年来极端估值水平下购入股票，期待这些股票在未来十年依然独领风骚的投资者，可能会遭受打击。</p><p>虽然多种因素支撑着当前的长期牛市行情，然而历史经验表明，盲目投资往往导致不尽如人意的结果。</p><p>投资应当顺应时代的变迁！</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d03920eefba43ec949fdfd4f270dda1","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3NjkxMTk0NQ==&mid=2247526951&idx=1&sn=48bd9834ba7eb4265cc85689c6e5a3bd&chksm=eaaa01f0342e0781acf8e2be5cfeeea00e7b0251e011eb920625c944d2738c202be6866694ac&scene=0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2453087364","content_text":"近几年来，少数几家“超级大盘股”成为带动市场上涨的中流砥柱。问题是，这些超级大盘股还能保持这一状态吗？这个问题很关键，因为Apollo提供的图表已经显示，上市公司数量持续下降。美国上市公司数量数量下降背后的原因有很多，包括合并收购、破产、杠杆收购以及私募股权操作。例如，Twitter（现称X）曾是一家上市公司，在埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)将其私有化之前是上市公司。随着上市公司数量减少，虽然市场上的资金在增加，但机会却减少了。这种现象对于需要在短时间内部署大量资金大型机构而言尤其明显。如今，在罗素2000指数中，近40%的公司目前处于亏损状态，进一步限制了资金的选择范围。罗素2000指数中负收益公司的百分比然而，将市场资本集中于少数几家公司的情况并非没有先例。在20世纪60年代和70年代，有“Nifty 50”（漂亮50）；到了90年代末，有思科系统这样的互联网宠儿。而今，与“人工智能(AI)”相关的公司成为了焦点。美国股票市场集中度如上图所示，过去的领头羊并不是今日的佼佼者。值得注意的是，英伟达在2024年首次被列为“超级大盘股”公司之一。市值最大的股票然而，投资者必须考虑微软、苹果、谷歌和$亚马逊(AMZN)在未来十年是否还能保持领导地位。就像昔日的美国电话电报公司(AT&T)和通用汽车曾是华尔街的宠儿一样，今天的科技股也可能成为历史的遗迹。盈利能力的增长盈利能力的增长是解答上述问题的一个核心因素。显而易见，当企业的盈利呈现增长态势时，投资者愿意支付更高的价格。标准普尔500指数盈利水平按年的变化率然而，2023年的状况是，所有盈利增长均源自指数中排名前七的“超级市值”股票。若不计这七只股票，标普500指数实际上将面临盈利负增长的局面。这种情形很可能导致市场表现更为疲软。值得注意的是，尽管分析师们乐观预测，除了这七家公司之外的493家股票的盈利增长会在2024年末加速，但鉴于经济数据放缓的趋势，这些期望可能最终落空。美股七巨头的盈利增长在接下来的十年里，诸如微软、苹果和谷歌母公司Alphabet等企业将面临如何保持营收快速增长以维持高盈利增长率的挑战。鉴于英伟达作为一家新兴公司在快速成长的行业中，它能够显著增加营收，从而支撑其较高的估值倍数。总营收然而，因为大数定律，苹果作为成熟企业，无法实现如此高速的营收增长。为了更直观地说明这个问题，我加入了一个五年平均营收增长率的指标。总营收这就是华尔街谚语“树不会长到天上去”的由来。在投资领域，这句话警示着那些高增长却逐渐成熟的公司所面临的风险。在某些情况下，公司基于不切实际的预期，认为即便公司规模扩大，仍能保持相同的高速增长，因而获得过高的估值。举个例子，如果一家公司当前的年营收为100亿美元，且增长率为200%，很容易想象它能在几年内实现数百亿的营收。然而，公司规模越大，维持高增长率就越困难。比如，一家占有1%市场份额的公司，很容易将份额翻倍至2%。但当一家公司的市场份额达到80%时，想要销量翻番就需要开拓新市场或进入自己尚不占优势的领域。此外，随着公司规模的扩大，通常会出现效率下降和创新力减弱的现象，这是规模不经济效应的体现。正因为如此，许多当前市值权重最高的股票，十年后可能不再是榜单上的常客。就像AT&T已成为过去“新技术”的遗迹，或许几年后，当智慧手机不再成为必需品时，苹果也将遭遇相似的命运。被动投资的影响在过去的二十年中，被动投资的兴起对金融市场带来了有趣的变革。标普500指数中的前十大“超级大盘股”占据了指数超过三分之一的比重。换句话说，这前十名股票的1%涨幅，相当于其余90%股票同样涨幅的总和。当投资者购买被动型ETF的股份时，ETF必须购入其基础公司的所有股票。鉴于过去一年大量资金流入ETF，尤其是流入这前十名股票，市场表面的稳定也就不足为奇了。前十大股票的市值权重毋庸置疑，这种强制性的资金注入到市值最大的股票中，使得市场表现看起来比实际情况更为强劲。这也是为什么标普500的市值加权指数 (NYSE:RSP)在近年超越了等权重指数的表现。市值加权指数VS等权指数的差距然而，投资者常常忽视这把双刃剑的另一面。以特斯拉(NASDAQ:TSLA)为例，假设在英伟达（Nvidia）进入前十之前，特斯拉在标普500指数中的权重为5%。随着英伟达股价的快速上涨，其市值增加，而特斯拉股价下跌导致其在指数中的权重降低。因此，所有跟踪指数的基金、被动基金管理者、投资组织者者等，不得不增加英伟达的持股比例，同时减少特斯拉的持有量。英伟达vs特斯拉市值未来，无论哪些新一代的公司赢得华尔街的青睐，当前的领头羊可能就会跌出前十，因为“被动”资金流需要卖出今天的领导者，以便买入更多明日之星。这种机制下，市场权重的调整将是一个持续的过程，反映出被动投资对市场动态的深刻影响。股票回购的影响最后，公司股票回购行为，规模预计接近1万亿美元并在2024年超越这一数字，可能对现有市场领导者的地位构成压力。这是因为具备雄厚现金实力执行巨额回购计划的大公司，如苹果、微软、谷歌母公司Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)及英伟达，主导着回购市场。以苹果为例，其一家公司在2024年的回购总额中就占了超过10%的份额。标准普尔500指数年度回购规模如果你还未意识到股票回购对于维持大公司市场主导地位的重要性，下面的数学计算或许能帮助理解：养老金和共同基金 = 净卖出2.7万亿美元家庭和外资 = 净买入2.4万亿美元小计 = 净卖出0.3万亿美元公司（回购）= 净买入5.5万亿美元净总计 = 净买入5.2万亿美元换句话说，自2000年以来，公司在净股权购买方面贡献了100%的资金。2000年以来美国股票的净买盘因此，公司股票回购活动的起伏与市场表现高度相关，这一点不应让人感到意外。标准普尔500指数回报与股票年度回购变化比例只要公司持续成为自家股票的最大买家，超级大盘股公司就能够保持市场主导地位。当然，当前的回购速度终将结束，原因可能包括：税法的变更禁止股票回购（过去因操纵市场而被禁止）盈利能力逆转，使得回购变得艰难经济衰退或信贷事件迫使公司采取防御姿态（如2000年、2008年、2022年）不论出于何种原因，回购计划的反转可能会严重削弱现有领头羊股票的市场控制力。我无法预知触发这种反转的具体事件或时间点，但可以肯定的是，一旦回购活动终止，由于大公司股票回购为这些顶级股票提供了全部的净股权购买资金，超级大盘股公司的统治地位将受到冲击。结论当前“超级大盘股”的主导地位实属预料之中。正如前文所述，这些企业是标普500指数大部分的盈利增长和营收来源，同时也是自家股票的主要买家。过去十年间，它们恰好处于历次技术革命的核心，包括当前的人工智能浪潮。资产泡沫历史然而，鉴于科技与经济瞬息万变的本质，可以预见，过去十年的领军企业未必能继续引领下一个十年。对于投资者而言，理解每个市场周期的内在规律并据此做出投资决策至关重要。然而，那些在近百年来极端估值水平下购入股票，期待这些股票在未来十年依然独领风骚的投资者，可能会遭受打击。虽然多种因素支撑着当前的长期牛市行情，然而历史经验表明，盲目投资往往导致不尽如人意的结果。投资应当顺应时代的变迁！","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":298759580622848,"gmtCreate":1713948208954,"gmtModify":1713948209883,"author":{"id":"3491893324400809","authorId":"3491893324400809","name":"小师弟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a89d64ba515fda95341bb784b2a7f97","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491893324400809","authorIdStr":"3491893324400809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=1549554122940564894><strong>央视新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今天（9月29日）下午，国务院联防联控机制召开新闻发布会，国家卫生健康委新闻发言人、宣传司副司长米锋介绍，国庆假期临近，人员流动和聚集增加，疫情传播风险加大。要毫不动摇坚持“外防输入、内防反弹”总策略和“动态清零”总方针，严格落实第九版防控方案和九不准要求，科学精准抓好疫情防控工作。坚决防止简单化、一刀切和层层加码，引导人员安全、有序流动。要始终做好个人防护，坚持戴口罩、勤洗手、多通风、少聚集，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=1549554122940564894\">Web 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