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西部牛仔梦
天马行空的闯出自己的一片天!不喜欢投机,却又不甘于平庸
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西部牛仔梦
08-02
人少的地方少去,黑夜不要出去,这就是欧洲的大城市。
西部牛仔梦
2023-03-23
电车真香
30万以下,谁还买油车?
西部牛仔梦
2022-07-27
Nice translation, very impressive
抱歉,原内容已删除
西部牛仔梦
2022-05-16
这是收智商税吗?
法拉第未来盘前涨7.72%,CEO称有信心实现第三季度交付
西部牛仔梦
2021-11-27
两只大狼狗咬起来了好久没炒股,剩下几千刀搞了大麻股亏损至快清零了,索性半年多没看这些东西。今天突然看朋友圈,两个曾经的大V, 论坛彼此唱双簧。在股市里一个天天哭惨,另一个曾经气吞万里如虎的高手,突然间如狗一样就互相咬了起来,煞是好看。[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] ,我等小民幸运之至,聆听这投资教训课堂![开心] [开心] [开心] ,孤身走我路!
西部牛仔梦
2020-08-21
$拼多多(PDD)$
活跃用户,我也算吗?莫名奇妙的看个体育新闻就给我装软件,创始人咋回事,钱捞足跑路了吗?
西部牛仔梦
2020-08-21
$拼多多(PDD)$
拼多多一日不死,产业结构升级难以成功。其联动早该进去历史尘埃的劣质品制造企业依赖中西部市场苟延残喘。补贴的不正当竞争模式对于市场规律有明显破坏作用,使市场对于产品失去自然选择性。
西部牛仔梦
2020-07-31
这踏马什么翻译水平?
Merck raised 2020 adj. EPS guidance to $5.63-$5.78 from $5.17-$5.37
西部牛仔梦
2020-06-01
$拼多多(PDD)$
麻痹,最近下载拼多多,领现金助力,十块钱买了助力红包,结果给我助力两毛钱。这个垃圾,到处诈骗,之前家里买了猪蹄20元,买回来直接倒垃圾桶!就是个垃圾。
西部牛仔梦
2020-05-23
$拼多多(PDD)$
真心建议拼多多换波音!这样国家的十四五规划都不用做了,把他们厂的技术吃透了,军工,大飞机,发动机,集成电路,产业管理全部实现升级换代。波音是美帝核心资产,争取拿下,现在换了好像还能弄点流动资金。[开心]
西部牛仔梦
2020-05-19
$拼多多(PDD)$
曾经沧海难为水,除却巫山不是云!在大风大浪中存活下来,即便度日如鲁滨逊,但终收获安康富贵。
西部牛仔梦
2020-05-14
$波音(BA)$
拿拼多多换波音,跑步🏃实现国防,发动机电子集成大工业现代化,中国梦提前五十年实现![愤怒] [愤怒] [愤怒] [愤怒] [愤怒]
西部牛仔梦
2020-05-05
$拼多多(PDD)$
不信这玩意还能逆了天,F words loaded
西部牛仔梦
2020-05-04
$拼多多(PDD)$
拼多多不断勃起,迟早会因为精水不济而亡。
西部牛仔梦
2020-04-16
$拼多多(PDD)$
颠覆了我的认知,😀,人造肉,大麻我都见过,拼多多我也用过,300亿人民币的收入创造500亿美金的价值,还未实现盈利![捂脸]
西部牛仔梦
2020-04-02
$李维斯(LEVI)$
感觉这股玩的人好少,好冷清。私自觉得这是个好公司,牛仔服走大众路线,不夸张不炫耀,老少皆宜,质量也挺好。在美国的时候买了好多条,打折两条70刀,个子高的不愁选不到适合自己的裤子。不过美国年轻妹子穿那种瑜伽紧身裤的也超级多,只限妹子+年轻😀。以上几乎含括了所有美国的裤子文化😂(各式dealer不在其中)!疫情期间记着穿裤子啊😀
西部牛仔梦
2020-03-12
这样跌要防止战争了啊[笑哭] ,全美财富大半集中在股市,401K😇
西部牛仔梦
2020-03-11
美股现在涨跌幅都是500点起跳,难度系数这么高啊[笑哭]
西部牛仔梦
2020-03-09
美股跌停了[开心]
西部牛仔梦
2020-01-10
$拼多多(PDD)$
PDD怎么啦?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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Day后说出这句话时,引来了铺天盖地的诘责。人们“批评”斌哥看起来每天在APP里发红包,跟用户打成一片,实际上很早就何不食肉糜,脱离群众,完全无视了中国广大普通消费者的经济条件和用车环境。</p><p>内向的斌哥不语,默默承担了这些“骂声”,这不是因为他软弱,而是因为他早已看穿一切。</p><p><strong>不到一年,中国汽车市场燃油车和新能源车翻天覆地的销量变化,就是有力铁证。</strong></p><p>根据乘联会的统计,2022年中国乘用车累计零售2,054.3万台。其中,常规燃油车(纯燃油车)销量1486.8万台,同比下降13%,这个数字在过去三年分别是1,716万台(2021年)、1,818万台(2020年)和1,968万台(2019年)。新能源车零售567.4万台,同比增长90.0%,全年新能源汽车渗透率为27.6%。</p><p>另一个数据来源中汽协的统计中,结果同样惊人。2021年中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>车销量688.7万台,其中纯电车536.5万台,插电式混合动力汽车151.8万台,燃料电池汽车0.3万台,市场占有率25.6%,提前三年,在疫情反弹、芯片短缺、原材料价格上涨等多重不利因素影响下,实现了《新能源汽车产业发展规划(2021—2035年)》中提出的“到2025年,新能源汽车新车销量占比达到20%左右”的目标。</p><p>要知道,在2021年的时候,中国新能源汽车的渗透率只有14.8%。短短一年,这个渗透率,提升了10%。</p><p><strong>新能源车对市场的推土机式平趟,一点减速的意思都没有。</strong></p><p>今年前两个月,据中汽协数据,乘用车整体销量为312.1万台,其中,新能源乘用车销量93.3万台,市场占有率25.7%,渗透率26.6%,这意味着过去两个月每卖出四台新车,就有一台是新能源车,要么是纯电动,要么是插电式混动。在三个明星品牌——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>和五菱的引领下,今年中国新能源车的整体销量将有望突破800万台,渗透率超过40%。</p><p>去年,中国新能源乘用车厂商零售销量排名的TOP15企业分别是:比亚迪(市场份额为31.7%)、上汽通用五菱(7.8%)、特斯拉中国(7.8%)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">吉利汽车</a>(5.4%)、广汽埃安(4.8%)、奇瑞汽车(3.9%)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000625\">长安汽车</a>(3.7%)、哪咤汽车(2.6%)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>(2.3%)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">长城汽车</a>(2.2%)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>汽车(2.2%)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>(2.1%)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09863\">零跑汽车</a>(2%)、一汽大众(1.8%)、上汽大众(1.6%)。</p><p>细心的你一定发现了,油车时代躺着就能赚大钱的合资品牌,除了德国大众还在勉力支撑,其它的诸如丰田、本田、日产、别克、福特、马自达等,在面对中国品牌新能源车的骑脸输出时,别说还手,连最基本的招架之力都没有,<strong>可谓二十年内功,一夜就破防。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/350250d14bac48bc987458ac8e143299\"/></p><p><strong>2022年,合资品牌与中国品牌在主线战场,即30万以下价格区间内的正面对抗已经结束。</strong>2023年,合资品牌要做的是在牲口都不如的外部环境中,尽智竭力地活下去。中国品牌一边打扫战场,一边准备内战。</p><p>按照当下中国新能源车市场的竞争强度和淘汰速率,十年后还能留在中国市场,正常运营的合资品牌,数量不超过一只手。</p><p>为什么?<strong>因为30万以下,中国人确实不把合资品牌纯油车,当成首选项了。</strong></p><p label=\"大标题\"><span><span><em https:=\"\"></em><span>不是不报,时候未到</span><em https:=\"\"></em></span></span></p><p>初见这个判断,你肯定会发出质疑:“怪不得塞车”的马自达的确是销声匿迹,但“马路三大妈”轩逸、卡罗拉和雷凌在全国各个城市街面上的可见度,也没比过去低多少。更何况,还有“比较高级”的朗逸、宝来,常年游荡在火车站、地铁站附近趴活。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1beb1f46c83b4b1a90a689a0c101e064\"/></p><p>我们用2022年,中国市场轿车和SUV的上险量——这个相对贴合现实的数据——来解答。</p><p>首先看轿车。在轿车上险量前十名中,紧凑车型占据六席。从级别份额上看,轿车依然占比最大,达到25.1%,相比2021年的26.4%,出现了一定萎缩。值得注意的是,紧凑型轿车的市场份额过去四年一直处于下行通道,从31.7%(2019年)到28.9%(2020年),再到26.4%(2021年),这是合资品牌在中国的核心销售基盘。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/894a4396a4ab4312a5611892d125c089\"/><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">数据来源:</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">汽车之家</a></span></p><p><strong>紧凑卖不狠,地位就不稳。</strong></p><p>这些合资品牌紧凑轿车让渡出的份额,一方面被比亚迪秦和海豚吞进肚里,比亚迪秦以环比翻倍,全年33.1万台的成绩,位列2022年轿车销量排名第四;另一方面流向了微型轿车和中大型轿车。微型轿车的份额从2019年的不到1%,迅速增长到2022年的5%,中型轿车的份额从2019年的10.6%,增长到2022年的12.1%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/598ffc7f30c0461384764570943e9a2d\"/><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">数据来源:</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">汽车之家(除SUV、MPV后的整体市场份额)</span></p><p>微型轿车在合资品牌2019年彻底放弃后,成为了五菱宏光MINIEV这台纯电小车表演的舞台,40.98万台的上险量让合资品牌既眼红又无奈。中型轿车,除了凯美瑞、雅阁外,天籁、帕萨特、迈腾等中国人眼熟的车型一概落榜,原因很简单,比亚迪汉在“性价比”层面对合资品牌实施了降维打击。</p><p>通过上险量,我们不难发现,10万以下轿车市场,中国品牌纯电车型一骑绝尘;10万到25万轿车市场,比亚迪依靠“油电同价”战略,干掉了竞争力一般的合资品牌车型,只剩下几块公认难啃的硬骨头;25万轿车市场,合资品牌仅有两台日系车硕果仅存,在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">豪华</a>品牌入门车型价格下探的情况下,该细分市场的生存空间进一步挤压。</p><p><strong>一个比亚迪汉就能让合资品牌中级车瑟瑟发抖,节节败退,如果中国品牌全军出击呢?</strong></p><p>以前,花25万能买到的,无非就是凯美瑞、雅阁、迈腾这些合资品牌的老古董。合资品牌用横置发动机、铁皮车身随便攒一攒,就要掏空一个中国人辛勤工作两年产生的剩余价值,<strong>这是拿咱这儿当全球慈善总会了。</strong></p><p>但如今,这个预算可以让你挑花眼:要面子,选豪华品牌的宝马i3、特斯拉 Model 3;要性价比,选中国品牌的比亚迪汉、小鹏P7i、飞凡F7、零跑C01、哪咤S等,哪一台不比眼里只有暴利的合资品牌强?</p><p>中国人确实对轿车不怎么感冒,但不代表中国人不会挑轿车:2022年,中国品牌轿车的市场份额拉升到了18.7%,合资品牌轿车的市场份额被压缩至23.2%,中国品牌轿车完成对合资品牌轿车的超越,指日可待。</p><p>与“革命尚未成功”的中国品牌轿车不同,中国品牌SUV很早就实现了对合资品牌SUV的鲸吞。2019年时,中国品牌SUV就占据了21.5%的市场份额,到2022年,这个数字已经变成了22.3%,远超合资品牌的14.7%。</p><p><img arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/237376e739ad478a9441fac2daabf0a8\" top=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">数据来源:</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">汽车之家(除轿车、MPV后的整体市场份</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">额)</span></p><p>具体来看,紧凑型(24%)是2022年中国SUV市场的绝对销量主力,依靠这一级距的统治级表现,中国品牌将合资品牌打得找不着北。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a727f68420a44c390f4b570e46a379d\"/></p><p>数据来源:汽车之家</p><p>在特斯拉Model Y之后,比亚迪宋PLUS新能源以27.38万台的上险量,干掉了东风本田CR-V、一汽丰田荣放这两台传统强势合资SUV。同时,比亚迪在两台日系车身后埋伏了元PLUS,在大众途观身后埋伏了唐,随时启动“背刺”计划。今年前两个月,比亚迪宋在销量上超越了特斯拉Model Y,登上王座;元PLUS干掉本田CR-V,唐干掉大众途观。在排名前十的SUV中,中国品牌车型占据六席,豪华品牌占据三席,合资品牌只剩下本田CR-V了。</p><p>在当下的中国汽车市场,合资品牌仅存的用户吸引力和号召力,也就剩MPV了。不过,这种情况也不会持续太久:2022年,别克GL8、丰田塞那、本田奥德赛一息尚存。今年前2个月,腾势D9已经卖得比丰田塞那多,传祺M8和别克GL8的销量差距,也越拉越近。</p><p>在最近疯狂降价的车企中,合资品牌表现出了前所未有的紧迫和急躁,无论是参与车型还是降价幅度,都远超微微降价以表心意的中国品牌,<strong>一种末日气氛笼罩在合资品牌头上。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/804b51b423f84480a04c7acae19fbc77\"/></p><p>图片来源:广汽本田经销商</p><p>从2020年开始,已经先后有长安<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQF.UK\">雷诺</a>,长安DS,长安铃木,一汽马自达,广汽菲克Jeep,广汽讴歌等合资汽车公司结束了中国业务,最近因降价套路多而爆红的东风雪铁龙有很大可能在库存清完后,连夜关门跑路。</p><p>对此,奥纬咨询董事合伙人张君毅认为,合资品牌在电动车推进上落后于国内自主品牌,导致其价格对消费者的吸引力越来越弱。在快速反应市场异动方面,合资品牌相对落后。今后在30万以下的车型里,自主品牌的地位会越来越高。</p><p>去年,根据乘联会的统计,比亚迪超过一汽-大众,成为中国市场最畅销的乘用车品牌。这是中国品牌从1984年首家合资车企北京吉普成立以来,首次战胜合资品牌。并且,从2022年9月开始,中国品牌的市场份额持续突破50%,压合资品牌一头。</p><p><strong>打退这股合资品牌精锐部队,中国品牌花了整整38年。</strong></p><p label=\"大标题\"><span><span><em https:=\"\"></em><span>下一战:30万</span><em https:=\"\"></em></span></span></p><p>在30万以下市场,中国品牌依靠驱动能源形式的变化,无论是舆论还是销量,都取得了阶段性胜利,我们有资格痛饮一杯庆功酒。但30万以上的高端市场,豪华品牌没有被摧枯拉朽地中国品牌连根拔起,只是稳定的根基出现了小小松动。在这片战场,中国品牌一探头,就挨打,而且是毒打。</p><p>2022年,豪华轿车市场,销量前六名被宝马、奔驰、奥迪瓜分,第七名是沃尔沃S90。蔚来ET7以2.3万台的销量排名第八,但体量只有排名第一宝马5系(17.1万台)的七分之一,即便早已被中国消费者开除出豪华品牌队伍的奥迪A4,也以压倒性优势,轻松战胜蔚来ET5。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa35da05b39e4b8db9004ee851f42888\"/><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">数据来源:</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">乘联会</span></p><p>今年前两个月,蔚来ET7跌出前十,ET5升至第六,成为豪华轿车市场的独苗。</p><p><strong>但你想想,除了蔚来之外,还有多少中国品牌造出来的轿车,是自我标榜越级豪华,拳打宝马5系、脚踢奔驰E的?销量一摊到眼前,全露馅了。</strong></p><p>在豪华SUV市场,中国品牌就更惨,2022年只有理想ONE一款车型进入前十,排名第五,与BBA主流车型14万的销量相比,差距肉眼可见。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41b5fb7da222432d8b10f930c32fdb8b\"/><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">数据来源:</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">乘联会</span></p><p>今年前两个月,理想L9直逼宝马X5,L8紧追奥迪Q5L,扛起了中国品牌高端化的大旗。</p><p>但同样还是前面那个问题,除了理想,还有多少中国品牌推出的SUV,是主打一个“碾压传统豪华,颠覆既有认知”。在新能源和无限加长前置定语的双重护体下,还是只能在真刀真枪的战斗后,现出“菜鸡”原形。<strong>在各种PPT上将特斯拉Model Y按在地上摩擦,结果全年交付量连Model Y的零头都不到。</strong></p><p>所以,如今的中国汽车市场呈现出的态势是:<strong>30万以下,确实没什么人考虑油车;可30万以上,大部分人的首选还是油车。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f638bfb059c49558f48e1bdc4c88d09\"/></p><p>那,中国品牌新能源车什么时候,才能在30万以上价格区间,对德系豪华品牌,复现30万以下,对合资品牌的碾压式粉碎打击呢?</p><p><strong>答案是:五年后的某一个月。</strong></p><p>原因有三:首先,中国汽车消费人口的年龄特征正在发生重大变革,据汽车之家对真实车主的统计,2017年至2022年期间,31-40岁的购车人群占比连年下滑,21-30岁的购车人群在短短五年间增长了11%。购车人群的用户结构重心不断向30岁以下的年轻人群转移,现在的年轻人在购买第一台车时,更愿意选择中国品牌,<strong>十年后,当他们来到功成名就的35岁,准备增购、换购时,同样也会更青睐中国品牌。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c0217a2a73422db830891fabf42547\"/></p><p>其次,女性用户比例不断增加。众所周知,如今女性群体的社会地位、话语权和对消费市场的影响力与日俱增,<strong>且女性拥有50-200万可投资产的比例从2017年的25.9%上升至2021年的33.4%。</strong>更独立、更有钱、更理智的中国女性用户,已经纷纷跳出“品牌溢价牢笼”,她们更愿意选择“一台我喜欢的中国车”,而不是“刻板印象里的外国好车”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1c6935f343944e3a104727a6678bfd8\"/></p><p>最后,中华民族自信空前强烈。无论是产品技术的创新,还是服务体系,用户体验上的迭代。<strong>中国品牌都远比合资品牌步子迈得大。</strong>燃油车时代由合资品牌搭建的评价体系,在新能源车时代彻底失效,智能化超越品牌,成为产生新溢价的核心竞争力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc7f05a518c04cdaa477e49bfc6615a3\"/></p><p label=\"大标题\"><span><span><em https:=\"\"></em><span>写在最后</span><em https:=\"\"></em></span></span></p><p>2023年,是中国汽车市场淘汰赛启动的一年,是中国品牌全方位战胜传统合资品牌的一年,也是极少数中国品牌完成对德系豪华品牌超越的一年。</p><p>合资品牌近段时间针对燃油车的“回光返照式”降价,让笔者感觉到合资品牌在中国,很快就要成为“时代的眼泪”了。</p><p>10万以下,过去瞧不太上,现在高攀不起;10万到25万,SUV退路已断,轿车老家被偷;25万以上,都不用中国品牌动手,下探的豪华品牌会被格杀勿论,寸草不留。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed7d9fd20e6e4cbfa0d7e3db6b0d200e\"/></p><p>合资品牌如今的境地是:<strong>中国市场这么大,没有一处是我家。</strong></p><p>这其实一点也不怪中国人不念旧情。毕竟,躺赚了快40年的合资品牌向来只把庞大的中国市场看成提款机和快活林,只求大量攫取利润,绝不分享核心科技。既然从没把中国市场当成过家,现在被忍让多年的主人扫地出门,又有什么可抱怨的呢?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04f235bba0394c3184d1701ee6cbefd4\"/></p><p border-box=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" start=\"\">如对本稿件有异议或投诉,请联系tougao@huxiu.com</p><p border-box=\"\" center=\"\" flex=\"\" helvetica=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" space-between=\"\" start=\"\"><span></span><span>End</span></p></div></body></html>","source":"weixin_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>30万以下,谁还买油车?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n30万以下,谁还买油车?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-23 09:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c18c34ce7a24441bf1ece3402cf170e\"/></p><p><span label=\"备注\">出品|虎嗅汽车组</span></p><p><span label=\"备注\">作者|李文博</span></p><p><span label=\"备注\">编辑|周到</span></p><p><span label=\"备注\">头图|《九品芝麻官》</span></p><p>“完全不理解,怎么现在还有人买油车?”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fff78a76f3fb48ccaeee35c9fd92d3c6\"/></p><p>当<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>创始人、董事长、CEO李斌在2021 NIO Day后说出这句话时,引来了铺天盖地的诘责。人们“批评”斌哥看起来每天在APP里发红包,跟用户打成一片,实际上很早就何不食肉糜,脱离群众,完全无视了中国广大普通消费者的经济条件和用车环境。</p><p>内向的斌哥不语,默默承担了这些“骂声”,这不是因为他软弱,而是因为他早已看穿一切。</p><p><strong>不到一年,中国汽车市场燃油车和新能源车翻天覆地的销量变化,就是有力铁证。</strong></p><p>根据乘联会的统计,2022年中国乘用车累计零售2,054.3万台。其中,常规燃油车(纯燃油车)销量1486.8万台,同比下降13%,这个数字在过去三年分别是1,716万台(2021年)、1,818万台(2020年)和1,968万台(2019年)。新能源车零售567.4万台,同比增长90.0%,全年新能源汽车渗透率为27.6%。</p><p>另一个数据来源中汽协的统计中,结果同样惊人。2021年中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>车销量688.7万台,其中纯电车536.5万台,插电式混合动力汽车151.8万台,燃料电池汽车0.3万台,市场占有率25.6%,提前三年,在疫情反弹、芯片短缺、原材料价格上涨等多重不利因素影响下,实现了《新能源汽车产业发展规划(2021—2035年)》中提出的“到2025年,新能源汽车新车销量占比达到20%左右”的目标。</p><p>要知道,在2021年的时候,中国新能源汽车的渗透率只有14.8%。短短一年,这个渗透率,提升了10%。</p><p><strong>新能源车对市场的推土机式平趟,一点减速的意思都没有。</strong></p><p>今年前两个月,据中汽协数据,乘用车整体销量为312.1万台,其中,新能源乘用车销量93.3万台,市场占有率25.7%,渗透率26.6%,这意味着过去两个月每卖出四台新车,就有一台是新能源车,要么是纯电动,要么是插电式混动。在三个明星品牌——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>和五菱的引领下,今年中国新能源车的整体销量将有望突破800万台,渗透率超过40%。</p><p>去年,中国新能源乘用车厂商零售销量排名的TOP15企业分别是:比亚迪(市场份额为31.7%)、上汽通用五菱(7.8%)、特斯拉中国(7.8%)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">吉利汽车</a>(5.4%)、广汽埃安(4.8%)、奇瑞汽车(3.9%)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000625\">长安汽车</a>(3.7%)、哪咤汽车(2.6%)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>(2.3%)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">长城汽车</a>(2.2%)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>汽车(2.2%)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>(2.1%)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09863\">零跑汽车</a>(2%)、一汽大众(1.8%)、上汽大众(1.6%)。</p><p>细心的你一定发现了,油车时代躺着就能赚大钱的合资品牌,除了德国大众还在勉力支撑,其它的诸如丰田、本田、日产、别克、福特、马自达等,在面对中国品牌新能源车的骑脸输出时,别说还手,连最基本的招架之力都没有,<strong>可谓二十年内功,一夜就破防。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/350250d14bac48bc987458ac8e143299\"/></p><p><strong>2022年,合资品牌与中国品牌在主线战场,即30万以下价格区间内的正面对抗已经结束。</strong>2023年,合资品牌要做的是在牲口都不如的外部环境中,尽智竭力地活下去。中国品牌一边打扫战场,一边准备内战。</p><p>按照当下中国新能源车市场的竞争强度和淘汰速率,十年后还能留在中国市场,正常运营的合资品牌,数量不超过一只手。</p><p>为什么?<strong>因为30万以下,中国人确实不把合资品牌纯油车,当成首选项了。</strong></p><p label=\"大标题\"><span><span><em https:=\"\"></em><span>不是不报,时候未到</span><em https:=\"\"></em></span></span></p><p>初见这个判断,你肯定会发出质疑:“怪不得塞车”的马自达的确是销声匿迹,但“马路三大妈”轩逸、卡罗拉和雷凌在全国各个城市街面上的可见度,也没比过去低多少。更何况,还有“比较高级”的朗逸、宝来,常年游荡在火车站、地铁站附近趴活。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1beb1f46c83b4b1a90a689a0c101e064\"/></p><p>我们用2022年,中国市场轿车和SUV的上险量——这个相对贴合现实的数据——来解答。</p><p>首先看轿车。在轿车上险量前十名中,紧凑车型占据六席。从级别份额上看,轿车依然占比最大,达到25.1%,相比2021年的26.4%,出现了一定萎缩。值得注意的是,紧凑型轿车的市场份额过去四年一直处于下行通道,从31.7%(2019年)到28.9%(2020年),再到26.4%(2021年),这是合资品牌在中国的核心销售基盘。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/894a4396a4ab4312a5611892d125c089\"/><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">数据来源:</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">汽车之家</a></span></p><p><strong>紧凑卖不狠,地位就不稳。</strong></p><p>这些合资品牌紧凑轿车让渡出的份额,一方面被比亚迪秦和海豚吞进肚里,比亚迪秦以环比翻倍,全年33.1万台的成绩,位列2022年轿车销量排名第四;另一方面流向了微型轿车和中大型轿车。微型轿车的份额从2019年的不到1%,迅速增长到2022年的5%,中型轿车的份额从2019年的10.6%,增长到2022年的12.1%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/598ffc7f30c0461384764570943e9a2d\"/><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">数据来源:</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">汽车之家(除SUV、MPV后的整体市场份额)</span></p><p>微型轿车在合资品牌2019年彻底放弃后,成为了五菱宏光MINIEV这台纯电小车表演的舞台,40.98万台的上险量让合资品牌既眼红又无奈。中型轿车,除了凯美瑞、雅阁外,天籁、帕萨特、迈腾等中国人眼熟的车型一概落榜,原因很简单,比亚迪汉在“性价比”层面对合资品牌实施了降维打击。</p><p>通过上险量,我们不难发现,10万以下轿车市场,中国品牌纯电车型一骑绝尘;10万到25万轿车市场,比亚迪依靠“油电同价”战略,干掉了竞争力一般的合资品牌车型,只剩下几块公认难啃的硬骨头;25万轿车市场,合资品牌仅有两台日系车硕果仅存,在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">豪华</a>品牌入门车型价格下探的情况下,该细分市场的生存空间进一步挤压。</p><p><strong>一个比亚迪汉就能让合资品牌中级车瑟瑟发抖,节节败退,如果中国品牌全军出击呢?</strong></p><p>以前,花25万能买到的,无非就是凯美瑞、雅阁、迈腾这些合资品牌的老古董。合资品牌用横置发动机、铁皮车身随便攒一攒,就要掏空一个中国人辛勤工作两年产生的剩余价值,<strong>这是拿咱这儿当全球慈善总会了。</strong></p><p>但如今,这个预算可以让你挑花眼:要面子,选豪华品牌的宝马i3、特斯拉 Model 3;要性价比,选中国品牌的比亚迪汉、小鹏P7i、飞凡F7、零跑C01、哪咤S等,哪一台不比眼里只有暴利的合资品牌强?</p><p>中国人确实对轿车不怎么感冒,但不代表中国人不会挑轿车:2022年,中国品牌轿车的市场份额拉升到了18.7%,合资品牌轿车的市场份额被压缩至23.2%,中国品牌轿车完成对合资品牌轿车的超越,指日可待。</p><p>与“革命尚未成功”的中国品牌轿车不同,中国品牌SUV很早就实现了对合资品牌SUV的鲸吞。2019年时,中国品牌SUV就占据了21.5%的市场份额,到2022年,这个数字已经变成了22.3%,远超合资品牌的14.7%。</p><p><img arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/237376e739ad478a9441fac2daabf0a8\" top=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">数据来源:</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">汽车之家(除轿车、MPV后的整体市场份</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">额)</span></p><p>具体来看,紧凑型(24%)是2022年中国SUV市场的绝对销量主力,依靠这一级距的统治级表现,中国品牌将合资品牌打得找不着北。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a727f68420a44c390f4b570e46a379d\"/></p><p>数据来源:汽车之家</p><p>在特斯拉Model Y之后,比亚迪宋PLUS新能源以27.38万台的上险量,干掉了东风本田CR-V、一汽丰田荣放这两台传统强势合资SUV。同时,比亚迪在两台日系车身后埋伏了元PLUS,在大众途观身后埋伏了唐,随时启动“背刺”计划。今年前两个月,比亚迪宋在销量上超越了特斯拉Model Y,登上王座;元PLUS干掉本田CR-V,唐干掉大众途观。在排名前十的SUV中,中国品牌车型占据六席,豪华品牌占据三席,合资品牌只剩下本田CR-V了。</p><p>在当下的中国汽车市场,合资品牌仅存的用户吸引力和号召力,也就剩MPV了。不过,这种情况也不会持续太久:2022年,别克GL8、丰田塞那、本田奥德赛一息尚存。今年前2个月,腾势D9已经卖得比丰田塞那多,传祺M8和别克GL8的销量差距,也越拉越近。</p><p>在最近疯狂降价的车企中,合资品牌表现出了前所未有的紧迫和急躁,无论是参与车型还是降价幅度,都远超微微降价以表心意的中国品牌,<strong>一种末日气氛笼罩在合资品牌头上。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/804b51b423f84480a04c7acae19fbc77\"/></p><p>图片来源:广汽本田经销商</p><p>从2020年开始,已经先后有长安<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQF.UK\">雷诺</a>,长安DS,长安铃木,一汽马自达,广汽菲克Jeep,广汽讴歌等合资汽车公司结束了中国业务,最近因降价套路多而爆红的东风雪铁龙有很大可能在库存清完后,连夜关门跑路。</p><p>对此,奥纬咨询董事合伙人张君毅认为,合资品牌在电动车推进上落后于国内自主品牌,导致其价格对消费者的吸引力越来越弱。在快速反应市场异动方面,合资品牌相对落后。今后在30万以下的车型里,自主品牌的地位会越来越高。</p><p>去年,根据乘联会的统计,比亚迪超过一汽-大众,成为中国市场最畅销的乘用车品牌。这是中国品牌从1984年首家合资车企北京吉普成立以来,首次战胜合资品牌。并且,从2022年9月开始,中国品牌的市场份额持续突破50%,压合资品牌一头。</p><p><strong>打退这股合资品牌精锐部队,中国品牌花了整整38年。</strong></p><p label=\"大标题\"><span><span><em https:=\"\"></em><span>下一战:30万</span><em https:=\"\"></em></span></span></p><p>在30万以下市场,中国品牌依靠驱动能源形式的变化,无论是舆论还是销量,都取得了阶段性胜利,我们有资格痛饮一杯庆功酒。但30万以上的高端市场,豪华品牌没有被摧枯拉朽地中国品牌连根拔起,只是稳定的根基出现了小小松动。在这片战场,中国品牌一探头,就挨打,而且是毒打。</p><p>2022年,豪华轿车市场,销量前六名被宝马、奔驰、奥迪瓜分,第七名是沃尔沃S90。蔚来ET7以2.3万台的销量排名第八,但体量只有排名第一宝马5系(17.1万台)的七分之一,即便早已被中国消费者开除出豪华品牌队伍的奥迪A4,也以压倒性优势,轻松战胜蔚来ET5。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa35da05b39e4b8db9004ee851f42888\"/><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">数据来源:</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">乘联会</span></p><p>今年前两个月,蔚来ET7跌出前十,ET5升至第六,成为豪华轿车市场的独苗。</p><p><strong>但你想想,除了蔚来之外,还有多少中国品牌造出来的轿车,是自我标榜越级豪华,拳打宝马5系、脚踢奔驰E的?销量一摊到眼前,全露馅了。</strong></p><p>在豪华SUV市场,中国品牌就更惨,2022年只有理想ONE一款车型进入前十,排名第五,与BBA主流车型14万的销量相比,差距肉眼可见。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41b5fb7da222432d8b10f930c32fdb8b\"/><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">数据来源:</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">乘联会</span></p><p>今年前两个月,理想L9直逼宝马X5,L8紧追奥迪Q5L,扛起了中国品牌高端化的大旗。</p><p>但同样还是前面那个问题,除了理想,还有多少中国品牌推出的SUV,是主打一个“碾压传统豪华,颠覆既有认知”。在新能源和无限加长前置定语的双重护体下,还是只能在真刀真枪的战斗后,现出“菜鸡”原形。<strong>在各种PPT上将特斯拉Model Y按在地上摩擦,结果全年交付量连Model Y的零头都不到。</strong></p><p>所以,如今的中国汽车市场呈现出的态势是:<strong>30万以下,确实没什么人考虑油车;可30万以上,大部分人的首选还是油车。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f638bfb059c49558f48e1bdc4c88d09\"/></p><p>那,中国品牌新能源车什么时候,才能在30万以上价格区间,对德系豪华品牌,复现30万以下,对合资品牌的碾压式粉碎打击呢?</p><p><strong>答案是:五年后的某一个月。</strong></p><p>原因有三:首先,中国汽车消费人口的年龄特征正在发生重大变革,据汽车之家对真实车主的统计,2017年至2022年期间,31-40岁的购车人群占比连年下滑,21-30岁的购车人群在短短五年间增长了11%。购车人群的用户结构重心不断向30岁以下的年轻人群转移,现在的年轻人在购买第一台车时,更愿意选择中国品牌,<strong>十年后,当他们来到功成名就的35岁,准备增购、换购时,同样也会更青睐中国品牌。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c0217a2a73422db830891fabf42547\"/></p><p>其次,女性用户比例不断增加。众所周知,如今女性群体的社会地位、话语权和对消费市场的影响力与日俱增,<strong>且女性拥有50-200万可投资产的比例从2017年的25.9%上升至2021年的33.4%。</strong>更独立、更有钱、更理智的中国女性用户,已经纷纷跳出“品牌溢价牢笼”,她们更愿意选择“一台我喜欢的中国车”,而不是“刻板印象里的外国好车”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1c6935f343944e3a104727a6678bfd8\"/></p><p>最后,中华民族自信空前强烈。无论是产品技术的创新,还是服务体系,用户体验上的迭代。<strong>中国品牌都远比合资品牌步子迈得大。</strong>燃油车时代由合资品牌搭建的评价体系,在新能源车时代彻底失效,智能化超越品牌,成为产生新溢价的核心竞争力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc7f05a518c04cdaa477e49bfc6615a3\"/></p><p label=\"大标题\"><span><span><em https:=\"\"></em><span>写在最后</span><em https:=\"\"></em></span></span></p><p>2023年,是中国汽车市场淘汰赛启动的一年,是中国品牌全方位战胜传统合资品牌的一年,也是极少数中国品牌完成对德系豪华品牌超越的一年。</p><p>合资品牌近段时间针对燃油车的“回光返照式”降价,让笔者感觉到合资品牌在中国,很快就要成为“时代的眼泪”了。</p><p>10万以下,过去瞧不太上,现在高攀不起;10万到25万,SUV退路已断,轿车老家被偷;25万以上,都不用中国品牌动手,下探的豪华品牌会被格杀勿论,寸草不留。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed7d9fd20e6e4cbfa0d7e3db6b0d200e\"/></p><p>合资品牌如今的境地是:<strong>中国市场这么大,没有一处是我家。</strong></p><p>这其实一点也不怪中国人不念旧情。毕竟,躺赚了快40年的合资品牌向来只把庞大的中国市场看成提款机和快活林,只求大量攫取利润,绝不分享核心科技。既然从没把中国市场当成过家,现在被忍让多年的主人扫地出门,又有什么可抱怨的呢?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04f235bba0394c3184d1701ee6cbefd4\"/></p><p border-box=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" start=\"\">如对本稿件有异议或投诉,请联系tougao@huxiu.com</p><p border-box=\"\" center=\"\" flex=\"\" helvetica=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" space-between=\"\" start=\"\"><span></span><span>End</span></p></div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU2328871848.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China A Shares Growth AS SGD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4581":"高盛持仓","NIO.SI":"蔚来","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","BK1582":"深圳本地概念股","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0196":"行业龙头","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","002594":"比亚迪","LU1969619763.USD":"EASTSPRING INV CHINA A SHARES GROWTH \"A\" 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Day后说出这句话时,引来了铺天盖地的诘责。人们“批评”斌哥看起来每天在APP里发红包,跟用户打成一片,实际上很早就何不食肉糜,脱离群众,完全无视了中国广大普通消费者的经济条件和用车环境。内向的斌哥不语,默默承担了这些“骂声”,这不是因为他软弱,而是因为他早已看穿一切。不到一年,中国汽车市场燃油车和新能源车翻天覆地的销量变化,就是有力铁证。根据乘联会的统计,2022年中国乘用车累计零售2,054.3万台。其中,常规燃油车(纯燃油车)销量1486.8万台,同比下降13%,这个数字在过去三年分别是1,716万台(2021年)、1,818万台(2020年)和1,968万台(2019年)。新能源车零售567.4万台,同比增长90.0%,全年新能源汽车渗透率为27.6%。另一个数据来源中汽协的统计中,结果同样惊人。2021年中国新能源车销量688.7万台,其中纯电车536.5万台,插电式混合动力汽车151.8万台,燃料电池汽车0.3万台,市场占有率25.6%,提前三年,在疫情反弹、芯片短缺、原材料价格上涨等多重不利因素影响下,实现了《新能源汽车产业发展规划(2021—2035年)》中提出的“到2025年,新能源汽车新车销量占比达到20%左右”的目标。要知道,在2021年的时候,中国新能源汽车的渗透率只有14.8%。短短一年,这个渗透率,提升了10%。新能源车对市场的推土机式平趟,一点减速的意思都没有。今年前两个月,据中汽协数据,乘用车整体销量为312.1万台,其中,新能源乘用车销量93.3万台,市场占有率25.7%,渗透率26.6%,这意味着过去两个月每卖出四台新车,就有一台是新能源车,要么是纯电动,要么是插电式混动。在三个明星品牌——特斯拉、比亚迪和五菱的引领下,今年中国新能源车的整体销量将有望突破800万台,渗透率超过40%。去年,中国新能源乘用车厂商零售销量排名的TOP15企业分别是:比亚迪(市场份额为31.7%)、上汽通用五菱(7.8%)、特斯拉中国(7.8%)、吉利汽车(5.4%)、广汽埃安(4.8%)、奇瑞汽车(3.9%)、长安汽车(3.7%)、哪咤汽车(2.6%)、理想汽车(2.3%)、长城汽车(2.2%)、蔚来汽车(2.2%)、小鹏汽车(2.1%)、零跑汽车(2%)、一汽大众(1.8%)、上汽大众(1.6%)。细心的你一定发现了,油车时代躺着就能赚大钱的合资品牌,除了德国大众还在勉力支撑,其它的诸如丰田、本田、日产、别克、福特、马自达等,在面对中国品牌新能源车的骑脸输出时,别说还手,连最基本的招架之力都没有,可谓二十年内功,一夜就破防。2022年,合资品牌与中国品牌在主线战场,即30万以下价格区间内的正面对抗已经结束。2023年,合资品牌要做的是在牲口都不如的外部环境中,尽智竭力地活下去。中国品牌一边打扫战场,一边准备内战。按照当下中国新能源车市场的竞争强度和淘汰速率,十年后还能留在中国市场,正常运营的合资品牌,数量不超过一只手。为什么?因为30万以下,中国人确实不把合资品牌纯油车,当成首选项了。不是不报,时候未到初见这个判断,你肯定会发出质疑:“怪不得塞车”的马自达的确是销声匿迹,但“马路三大妈”轩逸、卡罗拉和雷凌在全国各个城市街面上的可见度,也没比过去低多少。更何况,还有“比较高级”的朗逸、宝来,常年游荡在火车站、地铁站附近趴活。我们用2022年,中国市场轿车和SUV的上险量——这个相对贴合现实的数据——来解答。首先看轿车。在轿车上险量前十名中,紧凑车型占据六席。从级别份额上看,轿车依然占比最大,达到25.1%,相比2021年的26.4%,出现了一定萎缩。值得注意的是,紧凑型轿车的市场份额过去四年一直处于下行通道,从31.7%(2019年)到28.9%(2020年),再到26.4%(2021年),这是合资品牌在中国的核心销售基盘。数据来源:汽车之家紧凑卖不狠,地位就不稳。这些合资品牌紧凑轿车让渡出的份额,一方面被比亚迪秦和海豚吞进肚里,比亚迪秦以环比翻倍,全年33.1万台的成绩,位列2022年轿车销量排名第四;另一方面流向了微型轿车和中大型轿车。微型轿车的份额从2019年的不到1%,迅速增长到2022年的5%,中型轿车的份额从2019年的10.6%,增长到2022年的12.1%。数据来源:汽车之家(除SUV、MPV后的整体市场份额)微型轿车在合资品牌2019年彻底放弃后,成为了五菱宏光MINIEV这台纯电小车表演的舞台,40.98万台的上险量让合资品牌既眼红又无奈。中型轿车,除了凯美瑞、雅阁外,天籁、帕萨特、迈腾等中国人眼熟的车型一概落榜,原因很简单,比亚迪汉在“性价比”层面对合资品牌实施了降维打击。通过上险量,我们不难发现,10万以下轿车市场,中国品牌纯电车型一骑绝尘;10万到25万轿车市场,比亚迪依靠“油电同价”战略,干掉了竞争力一般的合资品牌车型,只剩下几块公认难啃的硬骨头;25万轿车市场,合资品牌仅有两台日系车硕果仅存,在豪华品牌入门车型价格下探的情况下,该细分市场的生存空间进一步挤压。一个比亚迪汉就能让合资品牌中级车瑟瑟发抖,节节败退,如果中国品牌全军出击呢?以前,花25万能买到的,无非就是凯美瑞、雅阁、迈腾这些合资品牌的老古董。合资品牌用横置发动机、铁皮车身随便攒一攒,就要掏空一个中国人辛勤工作两年产生的剩余价值,这是拿咱这儿当全球慈善总会了。但如今,这个预算可以让你挑花眼:要面子,选豪华品牌的宝马i3、特斯拉 Model 3;要性价比,选中国品牌的比亚迪汉、小鹏P7i、飞凡F7、零跑C01、哪咤S等,哪一台不比眼里只有暴利的合资品牌强?中国人确实对轿车不怎么感冒,但不代表中国人不会挑轿车:2022年,中国品牌轿车的市场份额拉升到了18.7%,合资品牌轿车的市场份额被压缩至23.2%,中国品牌轿车完成对合资品牌轿车的超越,指日可待。与“革命尚未成功”的中国品牌轿车不同,中国品牌SUV很早就实现了对合资品牌SUV的鲸吞。2019年时,中国品牌SUV就占据了21.5%的市场份额,到2022年,这个数字已经变成了22.3%,远超合资品牌的14.7%。数据来源:汽车之家(除轿车、MPV后的整体市场份额)具体来看,紧凑型(24%)是2022年中国SUV市场的绝对销量主力,依靠这一级距的统治级表现,中国品牌将合资品牌打得找不着北。数据来源:汽车之家在特斯拉Model Y之后,比亚迪宋PLUS新能源以27.38万台的上险量,干掉了东风本田CR-V、一汽丰田荣放这两台传统强势合资SUV。同时,比亚迪在两台日系车身后埋伏了元PLUS,在大众途观身后埋伏了唐,随时启动“背刺”计划。今年前两个月,比亚迪宋在销量上超越了特斯拉Model Y,登上王座;元PLUS干掉本田CR-V,唐干掉大众途观。在排名前十的SUV中,中国品牌车型占据六席,豪华品牌占据三席,合资品牌只剩下本田CR-V了。在当下的中国汽车市场,合资品牌仅存的用户吸引力和号召力,也就剩MPV了。不过,这种情况也不会持续太久:2022年,别克GL8、丰田塞那、本田奥德赛一息尚存。今年前2个月,腾势D9已经卖得比丰田塞那多,传祺M8和别克GL8的销量差距,也越拉越近。在最近疯狂降价的车企中,合资品牌表现出了前所未有的紧迫和急躁,无论是参与车型还是降价幅度,都远超微微降价以表心意的中国品牌,一种末日气氛笼罩在合资品牌头上。图片来源:广汽本田经销商从2020年开始,已经先后有长安雷诺,长安DS,长安铃木,一汽马自达,广汽菲克Jeep,广汽讴歌等合资汽车公司结束了中国业务,最近因降价套路多而爆红的东风雪铁龙有很大可能在库存清完后,连夜关门跑路。对此,奥纬咨询董事合伙人张君毅认为,合资品牌在电动车推进上落后于国内自主品牌,导致其价格对消费者的吸引力越来越弱。在快速反应市场异动方面,合资品牌相对落后。今后在30万以下的车型里,自主品牌的地位会越来越高。去年,根据乘联会的统计,比亚迪超过一汽-大众,成为中国市场最畅销的乘用车品牌。这是中国品牌从1984年首家合资车企北京吉普成立以来,首次战胜合资品牌。并且,从2022年9月开始,中国品牌的市场份额持续突破50%,压合资品牌一头。打退这股合资品牌精锐部队,中国品牌花了整整38年。下一战:30万在30万以下市场,中国品牌依靠驱动能源形式的变化,无论是舆论还是销量,都取得了阶段性胜利,我们有资格痛饮一杯庆功酒。但30万以上的高端市场,豪华品牌没有被摧枯拉朽地中国品牌连根拔起,只是稳定的根基出现了小小松动。在这片战场,中国品牌一探头,就挨打,而且是毒打。2022年,豪华轿车市场,销量前六名被宝马、奔驰、奥迪瓜分,第七名是沃尔沃S90。蔚来ET7以2.3万台的销量排名第八,但体量只有排名第一宝马5系(17.1万台)的七分之一,即便早已被中国消费者开除出豪华品牌队伍的奥迪A4,也以压倒性优势,轻松战胜蔚来ET5。数据来源:乘联会今年前两个月,蔚来ET7跌出前十,ET5升至第六,成为豪华轿车市场的独苗。但你想想,除了蔚来之外,还有多少中国品牌造出来的轿车,是自我标榜越级豪华,拳打宝马5系、脚踢奔驰E的?销量一摊到眼前,全露馅了。在豪华SUV市场,中国品牌就更惨,2022年只有理想ONE一款车型进入前十,排名第五,与BBA主流车型14万的销量相比,差距肉眼可见。数据来源:乘联会今年前两个月,理想L9直逼宝马X5,L8紧追奥迪Q5L,扛起了中国品牌高端化的大旗。但同样还是前面那个问题,除了理想,还有多少中国品牌推出的SUV,是主打一个“碾压传统豪华,颠覆既有认知”。在新能源和无限加长前置定语的双重护体下,还是只能在真刀真枪的战斗后,现出“菜鸡”原形。在各种PPT上将特斯拉Model Y按在地上摩擦,结果全年交付量连Model Y的零头都不到。所以,如今的中国汽车市场呈现出的态势是:30万以下,确实没什么人考虑油车;可30万以上,大部分人的首选还是油车。那,中国品牌新能源车什么时候,才能在30万以上价格区间,对德系豪华品牌,复现30万以下,对合资品牌的碾压式粉碎打击呢?答案是:五年后的某一个月。原因有三:首先,中国汽车消费人口的年龄特征正在发生重大变革,据汽车之家对真实车主的统计,2017年至2022年期间,31-40岁的购车人群占比连年下滑,21-30岁的购车人群在短短五年间增长了11%。购车人群的用户结构重心不断向30岁以下的年轻人群转移,现在的年轻人在购买第一台车时,更愿意选择中国品牌,十年后,当他们来到功成名就的35岁,准备增购、换购时,同样也会更青睐中国品牌。其次,女性用户比例不断增加。众所周知,如今女性群体的社会地位、话语权和对消费市场的影响力与日俱增,且女性拥有50-200万可投资产的比例从2017年的25.9%上升至2021年的33.4%。更独立、更有钱、更理智的中国女性用户,已经纷纷跳出“品牌溢价牢笼”,她们更愿意选择“一台我喜欢的中国车”,而不是“刻板印象里的外国好车”。最后,中华民族自信空前强烈。无论是产品技术的创新,还是服务体系,用户体验上的迭代。中国品牌都远比合资品牌步子迈得大。燃油车时代由合资品牌搭建的评价体系,在新能源车时代彻底失效,智能化超越品牌,成为产生新溢价的核心竞争力。写在最后2023年,是中国汽车市场淘汰赛启动的一年,是中国品牌全方位战胜传统合资品牌的一年,也是极少数中国品牌完成对德系豪华品牌超越的一年。合资品牌近段时间针对燃油车的“回光返照式”降价,让笔者感觉到合资品牌在中国,很快就要成为“时代的眼泪”了。10万以下,过去瞧不太上,现在高攀不起;10万到25万,SUV退路已断,轿车老家被偷;25万以上,都不用中国品牌动手,下探的豪华品牌会被格杀勿论,寸草不留。合资品牌如今的境地是:中国市场这么大,没有一处是我家。这其实一点也不怪中国人不念旧情。毕竟,躺赚了快40年的合资品牌向来只把庞大的中国市场看成提款机和快活林,只求大量攫取利润,绝不分享核心科技。既然从没把中国市场当成过家,现在被忍让多年的主人扫地出门,又有什么可抱怨的呢?如对本稿件有异议或投诉,请联系tougao@huxiu.comEnd","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":682601880,"gmtCreate":1658929941245,"gmtModify":1658929941245,"author":{"id":"3488224836683015","authorId":"3488224836683015","name":"西部牛仔梦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be4b6d4f8d9fd8f7eebfac280045671","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3488224836683015","authorIdStr":"3488224836683015"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice translation, very impressive","listText":"Nice translation, very impressive","text":"Nice translation, very 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15:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>法拉第未来盘前涨7.72%,法拉第未来全球CEO毕福康表示仍然有信心在今年第三季度交付FF 91。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d6963ee3d6fd5d978fda242f99a46c1\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da02b327d14fbb528d302ef2b9995bf1","relate_stocks":{"FFIE":"Faraday Future"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161647264","content_text":"法拉第未来盘前涨7.72%,法拉第未来全球CEO毕福康表示仍然有信心在今年第三季度交付FF 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EPS guidance to $5.63-$5.78 from $5.17-$5.37","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2055654608","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"MW Merck raised 2020 adj. EPS guidance to $5.63-$5.78 from $5.17-$5.37\n\n\n \n\n\n (END) Dow Jones Newsw","content":"<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW Merck raised 2020 adj. EPS guidance to $5.63-$5.78 from $5.17-$5.37\n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n July 31, 2020 06:50 ET (10:50 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Merck raised 2020 adj. EPS guidance to $5.63-$5.78 from $5.17-$5.37</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMerck raised 2020 adj. EPS guidance to $5.63-$5.78 from $5.17-$5.37\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-07-31 18:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW Merck raised 2020 adj. EPS guidance to $5.63-$5.78 from $5.17-$5.37\n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n July 31, 2020 06:50 ET (10:50 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRK":"默沙东"},"source_url":"http://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2055654608","content_text":"MW Merck raised 2020 adj. 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>拿拼多多换波音,跑步🏃实现国防,发动机电子集成大工业现代化,中国梦提前五十年实现![愤怒] [愤怒] [愤怒] [愤怒] [愤怒] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>拿拼多多换波音,跑步🏃实现国防,发动机电子集成大工业现代化,中国梦提前五十年实现![愤怒] [愤怒] [愤怒] [愤怒] [愤怒] ","text":"$波音(BA)$拿拼多多换波音,跑步🏃实现国防,发动机电子集成大工业现代化,中国梦提前五十年实现![愤怒] [愤怒] [愤怒] [愤怒] [愤怒]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/950407644","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3494318691429514","authorId":"3494318691429514","name":"强烈关注波动率","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71af0285bb72b08502a3317f47519185","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3494318691429514","authorIdStr":"3494318691429514"},"content":"离开拼多多这世界有影响吗?","text":"离开拼多多这世界有影响吗?","html":"离开拼多多这世界有影响吗?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927907693,"gmtCreate":1588688773512,"gmtModify":1704178075079,"author":{"id":"3488224836683015","authorId":"3488224836683015","name":"西部牛仔梦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be4b6d4f8d9fd8f7eebfac280045671","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3488224836683015","authorIdStr":"3488224836683015"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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今晚阿里不知何去何从","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3646ff0dd11a19a7fd804454b3df95dc","width":"1080","height":"1620"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/905504648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":450486,"gmtCreate":1554044470163,"gmtModify":1704795808028,"author":{"id":"3488224836683015","authorId":"3488224836683015","name":"西部牛仔梦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be4b6d4f8d9fd8f7eebfac280045671","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3488224836683015","authorIdStr":"3488224836683015"},"themes":[],"title":"期权,刺激好毒,浪里挣扎","htmlText":"戒不了的期权,有毒!去年四月开始接触美股,没有模拟,没有A股磨砺,直接开干。初次入金2000,当初盯着每天几十刀变幻的伙食费心累不已。多面撒网赶上第一轮贸易摩擦之后恢复期,侥幸得了几只三d打印股在劲头上挣了点钱。之后加本金到8000刀,月净赚2000刀。五月初又赶上当时的推特,无知者无畏,开通期权,满仓推特,一天翻倍,如有神助。感觉自己特别牛逼,又听什么巴菲特说关注自己专业领域生活见闻,遂70%仓位入手abbv.98的call,想法是这个公司有个治痛经的药在审核。恰逢贸易战二轮摩擦,治智障的药也没用啦,abbv暴跌到70多,直到今天尚未完全恢复元气。期间有买陈一舟人人七块钱的put.看这个垃圾也不行,谁想**拆骨,导致期权直接报废,损失2000刀。当时的心情和人,与行尸走肉无异,血汗钱啊。不甘心,继续入金,有些许回本,但是贸易战愈演愈烈,又重仓了pgnx,消息面没问题,狗日研发成功竟然稀释股权,现在还在垃圾着。两次雷踩着点数上,让人生有了大起大落的感觉。曾经沧海,过河卒子,没办法。继续加本金,有时候和我做科研一样,总不轻易认输,不认为行不通。说实话这一年来,期权全是满仓的,最近这个大V是踩pfe的。今天恰好美股一年,未来依旧期权,但有个小策略不至于完全死亡,每周出点金,留点根救命。","listText":"戒不了的期权,有毒!去年四月开始接触美股,没有模拟,没有A股磨砺,直接开干。初次入金2000,当初盯着每天几十刀变幻的伙食费心累不已。多面撒网赶上第一轮贸易摩擦之后恢复期,侥幸得了几只三d打印股在劲头上挣了点钱。之后加本金到8000刀,月净赚2000刀。五月初又赶上当时的推特,无知者无畏,开通期权,满仓推特,一天翻倍,如有神助。感觉自己特别牛逼,又听什么巴菲特说关注自己专业领域生活见闻,遂70%仓位入手abbv.98的call,想法是这个公司有个治痛经的药在审核。恰逢贸易战二轮摩擦,治智障的药也没用啦,abbv暴跌到70多,直到今天尚未完全恢复元气。期间有买陈一舟人人七块钱的put.看这个垃圾也不行,谁想**拆骨,导致期权直接报废,损失2000刀。当时的心情和人,与行尸走肉无异,血汗钱啊。不甘心,继续入金,有些许回本,但是贸易战愈演愈烈,又重仓了pgnx,消息面没问题,狗日研发成功竟然稀释股权,现在还在垃圾着。两次雷踩着点数上,让人生有了大起大落的感觉。曾经沧海,过河卒子,没办法。继续加本金,有时候和我做科研一样,总不轻易认输,不认为行不通。说实话这一年来,期权全是满仓的,最近这个大V是踩pfe的。今天恰好美股一年,未来依旧期权,但有个小策略不至于完全死亡,每周出点金,留点根救命。","text":"戒不了的期权,有毒!去年四月开始接触美股,没有模拟,没有A股磨砺,直接开干。初次入金2000,当初盯着每天几十刀变幻的伙食费心累不已。多面撒网赶上第一轮贸易摩擦之后恢复期,侥幸得了几只三d打印股在劲头上挣了点钱。之后加本金到8000刀,月净赚2000刀。五月初又赶上当时的推特,无知者无畏,开通期权,满仓推特,一天翻倍,如有神助。感觉自己特别牛逼,又听什么巴菲特说关注自己专业领域生活见闻,遂70%仓位入手abbv.98的call,想法是这个公司有个治痛经的药在审核。恰逢贸易战二轮摩擦,治智障的药也没用啦,abbv暴跌到70多,直到今天尚未完全恢复元气。期间有买陈一舟人人七块钱的put.看这个垃圾也不行,谁想**拆骨,导致期权直接报废,损失2000刀。当时的心情和人,与行尸走肉无异,血汗钱啊。不甘心,继续入金,有些许回本,但是贸易战愈演愈烈,又重仓了pgnx,消息面没问题,狗日研发成功竟然稀释股权,现在还在垃圾着。两次雷踩着点数上,让人生有了大起大落的感觉。曾经沧海,过河卒子,没办法。继续加本金,有时候和我做科研一样,总不轻易认输,不认为行不通。说实话这一年来,期权全是满仓的,最近这个大V是踩pfe的。今天恰好美股一年,未来依旧期权,但有个小策略不至于完全死亡,每周出点金,留点根救命。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35db622069391e4e634b19a5778efb19"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/450486","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3489449645995884","authorId":"3489449645995884","name":"落魄的小股民丶","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7bdb879d2693c3a8b31b44bff58f1a3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3489449645995884","authorIdStr":"3489449645995884"},"content":"本金翻倍了还行,不过满仓期权就是赌,一着不慎就没了,这就不好说什么了","text":"本金翻倍了还行,不过满仓期权就是赌,一着不慎就没了,这就不好说什么了","html":"本金翻倍了还行,不过满仓期权就是赌,一着不慎就没了,这就不好说什么了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927907693,"gmtCreate":1588688773512,"gmtModify":1704178075079,"author":{"id":"3488224836683015","authorId":"3488224836683015","name":"西部牛仔梦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be4b6d4f8d9fd8f7eebfac280045671","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3488224836683015","authorIdStr":"3488224836683015"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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