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iHUGH
10-12
中国政策组合拳引爆全球市场
查看详情:
中国政策组合拳引爆全球市场
中国政策组合拳引爆全球市场:中概股与港股投资热潮来袭 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户
中国政策组合拳引爆全球市场
iHUGH
2021-06-11
Tiger is here
以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响
iHUGH
2021-01-28
$高斯电子(KOSS)$
$AMC院线(AMC)$
$游戏驿站(GME)$
买的再低,都没赚到钱,永远都拿不住,华尔街赌场,名不虚传[微笑] [微笑]
iHUGH
2021-01-25
$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$
这股票真跟过山车一样,大起大落
iHUGH
2021-01-02
2020初入股市,2021继续努力
iHUGH
2020-12-02
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@坡上之云阿龙:给大家讲个故事,看懂了自然就懂美股了
iHUGH
2020-12-02
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@坡上之云阿龙:给大家讲个故事,看懂了自然就懂美股了
iHUGH
2020-11-20
$逸仙电商(YSG)$
好梦
iHUGH
2020-11-16
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@小虎AV:11月10日,白宫新闻秘书凯莉·麦克纳尼提及有关“选举舞弊”的证据。她表示,有234页选民证词可以佐证这一“事实”。她称密歇根州一个县的一批选票中,有60%的人签名相同。此外还有重复计票、出现“死人票”、投票监督员受到威胁等情况。九$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 各州必须在12月8日之前解决选举纠纷,包括重新计票和就结果进行法庭辩论。选举人团的成员将于12月14日开会以最终确定结果。 另外,美国现任总统特朗普发推预告称,“选票腐败将于今晚9时(北京时间11日上午10时)在福克斯的肖恩·汉尼蒂节目中被揭露”。但是直至周三下午2时,美国方面仍没有传来选举腐败的消息。 当地时间周二早些时候,特朗普曾连发两条推文,他在推文中说,“我们正取得巨大进展,下周开始结果会出来,让美国再次伟大!”他在另一条推文中写道:“我们会赢!” 当地时间11月7日晚,特朗普在推特上引述法律学者说法发文:我们看到许多宣誓证词,称“存在选举舞弊”。$Twitter(TWTR)$
iHUGH
2020-11-04
老虎真没诚意,利息最高,退款最少
@小虎通知:老虎证券退还蚂蚁集团申购手续费,另额外赠送30天免佣卡
iHUGH
2020-04-20
一年没用APP,模拟资产涨了近400%???
iHUGH
2020-04-20
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@小虎老师:手把手教你如何用期权做空瑞幸
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://tigr.link/to?data=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuaXRpZ2VydXAuY29tL2hhbnMvbWFya2V0aW5nL2NoaW5hY29uY2VwdD9vcz1hbmRyb2lkJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09dGlnZXJfY29tbXVuaXR5Jm9yaWdpbmFsX21vZHVsZT1oNV9tYXRlcmlhbCZza2luPTEmYWN0aW9uSUQ9MmNjZTI0NGUxMzljNzI2ZjE1ZWFmYTgwN2U5YWVmNmEmZWRpdGlvbj1mdWxsJnNoYXJlSUQ9YTUxNmY1MjFiMjg4OWU2YzIwNzQ1NjhjZGFhYzc5YjUmaW52aXRlPUpTUEhaJmxhbmc9emhfQ04mcGxhdGZvcm09YW5kcm9pZA==\">中国政策组合拳引爆全球市场</a> 中国政策组合拳引爆全球市场:中概股与港股投资热潮来袭 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","listText":"查看详情:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/to?data=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuaXRpZ2VydXAuY29tL2hhbnMvbWFya2V0aW5nL2NoaW5hY29uY2VwdD9vcz1hbmRyb2lkJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09dGlnZXJfY29tbXVuaXR5Jm9yaWdpbmFsX21vZHVsZT1oNV9tYXRlcmlhbCZza2luPTEmYWN0aW9uSUQ9MmNjZTI0NGUxMzljNzI2ZjE1ZWFmYTgwN2U5YWVmNmEmZWRpdGlvbj1mdWxsJnNoYXJlSUQ9YTUxNmY1MjFiMjg4OWU2YzIwNzQ1NjhjZGFhYzc5YjUmaW52aXRlPUpTUEhaJmxhbmc9emhfQ04mcGxhdGZvcm09YW5kcm9pZA==\">中国政策组合拳引爆全球市场</a> 中国政策组合拳引爆全球市场:中概股与港股投资热潮来袭 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","text":"查看详情:中国政策组合拳引爆全球市场 中国政策组合拳引爆全球市场:中概股与港股投资热潮来袭 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff98eccfaff055c5a7c86bee57069e0c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359309212430624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":181604555,"gmtCreate":1623387939477,"gmtModify":1623387939477,"author":{"id":"3487144523952263","authorId":"3487144523952263","name":"iHUGH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85b0a58d4895e59f2b53013077f99115","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487144523952263","authorIdStr":"3487144523952263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181604555","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11:</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07:</b>走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09:</b>油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是<b>从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示:</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11:粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07:走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09:油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示:美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":318051001,"gmtCreate":1611838010503,"gmtModify":1703754599144,"author":{"id":"3487144523952263","authorId":"3487144523952263","name":"iHUGH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85b0a58d4895e59f2b53013077f99115","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487144523952263","authorIdStr":"3487144523952263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">$高斯电子(KOSS)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>买的再低,都没赚到钱,永远都拿不住,华尔街赌场,名不虚传[微笑] [微笑] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">$高斯电子(KOSS)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>买的再低,都没赚到钱,永远都拿不住,华尔街赌场,名不虚传[微笑] [微笑] ","text":"$高斯电子(KOSS)$$AMC院线(AMC)$$游戏驿站(GME)$买的再低,都没赚到钱,永远都拿不住,华尔街赌场,名不虚传[微笑] [微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe086ebd095bd6fa7a639f2bfefd6125","width":"1080","height":"1920"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efaf61cd8ee0fa2b9ea107ec4d1cceea","width":"1080","height":"1920"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77f24266f3b98b0d9117bc67385fd61","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318051001","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3501159589044901","authorId":"3501159589044901","name":"四叶小草","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de664e2c91e11d666cdf57db4b04253","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3501159589044901","authorIdStr":"3501159589044901"},"content":"为什么没赚钱啊","text":"为什么没赚钱啊","html":"为什么没赚钱啊"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319568848,"gmtCreate":1611590188884,"gmtModify":1703751418058,"author":{"id":"3487144523952263","authorId":"3487144523952263","name":"iHUGH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85b0a58d4895e59f2b53013077f99115","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487144523952263","authorIdStr":"3487144523952263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>这股票真跟过山车一样,大起大落","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>这股票真跟过山车一样,大起大落","text":"$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$这股票真跟过山车一样,大起大落","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319568848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331872440,"gmtCreate":1609558077080,"gmtModify":1703739738530,"author":{"id":"3487144523952263","authorId":"3487144523952263","name":"iHUGH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85b0a58d4895e59f2b53013077f99115","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487144523952263","authorIdStr":"3487144523952263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"2020初入股市,2021继续努力","listText":"2020初入股市,2021继续努力","text":"2020初入股市,2021继续努力","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9a10f0157dd9fa8a1a51c347ef5c441","width":"1080","height":"2400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331872440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398568597,"gmtCreate":1606921011719,"gmtModify":1703845417361,"author":{"id":"3487144523952263","authorId":"3487144523952263","name":"iHUGH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85b0a58d4895e59f2b53013077f99115","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487144523952263","authorIdStr":"3487144523952263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398568597","repostId":"398639145","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":398639145,"gmtCreate":1606885094987,"gmtModify":1728102291359,"author":{"id":"84591292386623","authorId":"84591292386623","name":"坡上之云阿龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23192029e6cace475a85ecd015bbf903","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84591292386623","authorIdStr":"84591292386623"},"themes":[],"title":"给大家讲个故事,看懂了自然就懂美股了","htmlText":"当时,我在一家餐厅打工,上菜的时候,看见老头正在搭讪一个同龄老太太。老太太回答他:“那我长得像谁啊?”老头说:“我老婆。”没想到都一把年纪啦!还这么老不正经,真猥琐!老太太也被气到了,连忙说:“你别胡说,我可是有老伴儿的”。说完起身就走。老头贼心不死,赶紧挡住老太太,说:“你先别走,听我讲个故事,是我们那个年代的故事。”出于好奇,老太太便坐了下来。老头说,我有一个发小叫柱子,当年柱子才15岁。那年代没什么吃的,柱子用弹弓打了一只鸽子,拿回来炖了汤。结果隔壁村的刘小妹跑过来,慌慌张张,应该是家里出什么事了。柱子说,大妹子,别着急,先喝口汤吧。刘小妹喝了口汤,终于镇定了些。然后她说,你有没有看见我家的鸽子?柱子吓得一哆嗦,不敢告诉她真相,便安慰她说,你别难过,鸽子一定是迷路了,过几天就会回来。第二天,刘小妹又来了,突然看到天上有一个白色的东西飞过。刘小妹惊喜地说,啊,我的鸽子!柱子说,那是我的白裤衩,被风吹走了。小妹叹了口气,眼神黯淡了下来。看着小妹这样,柱子更愧疚了,于是给她烧了个土豆。接下来的每一天,小妹都会来找她的鸽子,柱子每次都会做点吃的安抚她,小妹每次都吃得很满足。柱子开始期待给小妹做饭,他喜欢上了小妹,他就更愧疚了。有一天,小妹刚进门,就看见柱子站在院子里等她。柱子兴奋地大喊,小妹,你的鸽子飞回来了!小妹还没回话,柱子就从身后掏出了一只灰鸽。小妹说,我的鸽子是白的。柱子说,这几天太阳多毒啊,准是你的白鸽子被晒黑了。小妹大喝,你当我傻啊!无奈,柱子只好招了,承认鸽子是被他吃掉的,他愿意补偿她。小妹说,那你一辈子都给我做饭吧。于是,他们就开始处对象了。结婚几年之后,柱子才知道,小妹一直在骗他。那只鸽子本来就是小妹准备拿来吃的,还没来得及杀,它就飞跑了。小妹喝下那碗汤的时候,就知道那是自己的鸽子,但是柱子的厨艺太好了。——后来她每天假装去找鸽子,其实是蹭吃蹭喝,结果喜欢上","listText":"当时,我在一家餐厅打工,上菜的时候,看见老头正在搭讪一个同龄老太太。老太太回答他:“那我长得像谁啊?”老头说:“我老婆。”没想到都一把年纪啦!还这么老不正经,真猥琐!老太太也被气到了,连忙说:“你别胡说,我可是有老伴儿的”。说完起身就走。老头贼心不死,赶紧挡住老太太,说:“你先别走,听我讲个故事,是我们那个年代的故事。”出于好奇,老太太便坐了下来。老头说,我有一个发小叫柱子,当年柱子才15岁。那年代没什么吃的,柱子用弹弓打了一只鸽子,拿回来炖了汤。结果隔壁村的刘小妹跑过来,慌慌张张,应该是家里出什么事了。柱子说,大妹子,别着急,先喝口汤吧。刘小妹喝了口汤,终于镇定了些。然后她说,你有没有看见我家的鸽子?柱子吓得一哆嗦,不敢告诉她真相,便安慰她说,你别难过,鸽子一定是迷路了,过几天就会回来。第二天,刘小妹又来了,突然看到天上有一个白色的东西飞过。刘小妹惊喜地说,啊,我的鸽子!柱子说,那是我的白裤衩,被风吹走了。小妹叹了口气,眼神黯淡了下来。看着小妹这样,柱子更愧疚了,于是给她烧了个土豆。接下来的每一天,小妹都会来找她的鸽子,柱子每次都会做点吃的安抚她,小妹每次都吃得很满足。柱子开始期待给小妹做饭,他喜欢上了小妹,他就更愧疚了。有一天,小妹刚进门,就看见柱子站在院子里等她。柱子兴奋地大喊,小妹,你的鸽子飞回来了!小妹还没回话,柱子就从身后掏出了一只灰鸽。小妹说,我的鸽子是白的。柱子说,这几天太阳多毒啊,准是你的白鸽子被晒黑了。小妹大喝,你当我傻啊!无奈,柱子只好招了,承认鸽子是被他吃掉的,他愿意补偿她。小妹说,那你一辈子都给我做饭吧。于是,他们就开始处对象了。结婚几年之后,柱子才知道,小妹一直在骗他。那只鸽子本来就是小妹准备拿来吃的,还没来得及杀,它就飞跑了。小妹喝下那碗汤的时候,就知道那是自己的鸽子,但是柱子的厨艺太好了。——后来她每天假装去找鸽子,其实是蹭吃蹭喝,结果喜欢上","text":"当时,我在一家餐厅打工,上菜的时候,看见老头正在搭讪一个同龄老太太。老太太回答他:“那我长得像谁啊?”老头说:“我老婆。”没想到都一把年纪啦!还这么老不正经,真猥琐!老太太也被气到了,连忙说:“你别胡说,我可是有老伴儿的”。说完起身就走。老头贼心不死,赶紧挡住老太太,说:“你先别走,听我讲个故事,是我们那个年代的故事。”出于好奇,老太太便坐了下来。老头说,我有一个发小叫柱子,当年柱子才15岁。那年代没什么吃的,柱子用弹弓打了一只鸽子,拿回来炖了汤。结果隔壁村的刘小妹跑过来,慌慌张张,应该是家里出什么事了。柱子说,大妹子,别着急,先喝口汤吧。刘小妹喝了口汤,终于镇定了些。然后她说,你有没有看见我家的鸽子?柱子吓得一哆嗦,不敢告诉她真相,便安慰她说,你别难过,鸽子一定是迷路了,过几天就会回来。第二天,刘小妹又来了,突然看到天上有一个白色的东西飞过。刘小妹惊喜地说,啊,我的鸽子!柱子说,那是我的白裤衩,被风吹走了。小妹叹了口气,眼神黯淡了下来。看着小妹这样,柱子更愧疚了,于是给她烧了个土豆。接下来的每一天,小妹都会来找她的鸽子,柱子每次都会做点吃的安抚她,小妹每次都吃得很满足。柱子开始期待给小妹做饭,他喜欢上了小妹,他就更愧疚了。有一天,小妹刚进门,就看见柱子站在院子里等她。柱子兴奋地大喊,小妹,你的鸽子飞回来了!小妹还没回话,柱子就从身后掏出了一只灰鸽。小妹说,我的鸽子是白的。柱子说,这几天太阳多毒啊,准是你的白鸽子被晒黑了。小妹大喝,你当我傻啊!无奈,柱子只好招了,承认鸽子是被他吃掉的,他愿意补偿她。小妹说,那你一辈子都给我做饭吧。于是,他们就开始处对象了。结婚几年之后,柱子才知道,小妹一直在骗他。那只鸽子本来就是小妹准备拿来吃的,还没来得及杀,它就飞跑了。小妹喝下那碗汤的时候,就知道那是自己的鸽子,但是柱子的厨艺太好了。——后来她每天假装去找鸽子,其实是蹭吃蹭喝,结果喜欢上","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bac857212822d4eeda04deefed4216b","width":"1242","height":"2208"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398639145","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1368,"auth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href=\"https://tigr.link/to?data=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuaXRpZ2VydXAuY29tL2hhbnMvbWFya2V0aW5nL2NoaW5hY29uY2VwdD9vcz1hbmRyb2lkJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09dGlnZXJfY29tbXVuaXR5Jm9yaWdpbmFsX21vZHVsZT1oNV9tYXRlcmlhbCZza2luPTEmYWN0aW9uSUQ9MmNjZTI0NGUxMzljNzI2ZjE1ZWFmYTgwN2U5YWVmNmEmZWRpdGlvbj1mdWxsJnNoYXJlSUQ9YTUxNmY1MjFiMjg4OWU2YzIwNzQ1NjhjZGFhYzc5YjUmaW52aXRlPUpTUEhaJmxhbmc9emhfQ04mcGxhdGZvcm09YW5kcm9pZA==\">中国政策组合拳引爆全球市场</a> 中国政策组合拳引爆全球市场:中概股与港股投资热潮来袭 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","listText":"查看详情:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/to?data=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuaXRpZ2VydXAuY29tL2hhbnMvbWFya2V0aW5nL2NoaW5hY29uY2VwdD9vcz1hbmRyb2lkJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09dGlnZXJfY29tbXVuaXR5Jm9yaWdpbmFsX21vZHVsZT1oNV9tYXRlcmlhbCZza2luPTEmYWN0aW9uSUQ9MmNjZTI0NGUxMzljNzI2ZjE1ZWFmYTgwN2U5YWVmNmEmZWRpdGlvbj1mdWxsJnNoYXJlSUQ9YTUxNmY1MjFiMjg4OWU2YzIwNzQ1NjhjZGFhYzc5YjUmaW52aXRlPUpTUEhaJmxhbmc9emhfQ04mcGxhdGZvcm09YW5kcm9pZA==\">中国政策组合拳引爆全球市场</a> 中国政策组合拳引爆全球市场:中概股与港股投资热潮来袭 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","text":"查看详情:中国政策组合拳引爆全球市场 中国政策组合拳引爆全球市场:中概股与港股投资热潮来袭 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff98eccfaff055c5a7c86bee57069e0c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359309212430624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":181604555,"gmtCreate":1623387939477,"gmtModify":1623387939477,"author":{"id":"3487144523952263","authorId":"3487144523952263","name":"iHUGH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85b0a58d4895e59f2b53013077f99115","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3487144523952263","idStr":"3487144523952263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181604555","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11:</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07:</b>走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09:</b>油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是<b>从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示:</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11:粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07:走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09:油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示:美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319568848,"gmtCreate":1611590188884,"gmtModify":1703751418058,"author":{"id":"3487144523952263","authorId":"3487144523952263","name":"iHUGH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85b0a58d4895e59f2b53013077f99115","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3487144523952263","idStr":"3487144523952263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>这股票真跟过山车一样,大起大落","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>这股票真跟过山车一样,大起大落","text":"$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$这股票真跟过山车一样,大起大落","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319568848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398568597,"gmtCreate":1606921011719,"gmtModify":1703845417361,"author":{"id":"3487144523952263","authorId":"3487144523952263","name":"iHUGH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85b0a58d4895e59f2b53013077f99115","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3487144523952263","idStr":"3487144523952263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398568597","repostId":"398639145","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":398639145,"gmtCreate":1606885094987,"gmtModify":1728102291359,"author":{"id":"84591292386623","authorId":"84591292386623","name":"坡上之云阿龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23192029e6cace475a85ecd015bbf903","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"84591292386623","idStr":"84591292386623"},"themes":[],"title":"给大家讲个故事,看懂了自然就懂美股了","htmlText":"当时,我在一家餐厅打工,上菜的时候,看见老头正在搭讪一个同龄老太太。老太太回答他:“那我长得像谁啊?”老头说:“我老婆。”没想到都一把年纪啦!还这么老不正经,真猥琐!老太太也被气到了,连忙说:“你别胡说,我可是有老伴儿的”。说完起身就走。老头贼心不死,赶紧挡住老太太,说:“你先别走,听我讲个故事,是我们那个年代的故事。”出于好奇,老太太便坐了下来。老头说,我有一个发小叫柱子,当年柱子才15岁。那年代没什么吃的,柱子用弹弓打了一只鸽子,拿回来炖了汤。结果隔壁村的刘小妹跑过来,慌慌张张,应该是家里出什么事了。柱子说,大妹子,别着急,先喝口汤吧。刘小妹喝了口汤,终于镇定了些。然后她说,你有没有看见我家的鸽子?柱子吓得一哆嗦,不敢告诉她真相,便安慰她说,你别难过,鸽子一定是迷路了,过几天就会回来。第二天,刘小妹又来了,突然看到天上有一个白色的东西飞过。刘小妹惊喜地说,啊,我的鸽子!柱子说,那是我的白裤衩,被风吹走了。小妹叹了口气,眼神黯淡了下来。看着小妹这样,柱子更愧疚了,于是给她烧了个土豆。接下来的每一天,小妹都会来找她的鸽子,柱子每次都会做点吃的安抚她,小妹每次都吃得很满足。柱子开始期待给小妹做饭,他喜欢上了小妹,他就更愧疚了。有一天,小妹刚进门,就看见柱子站在院子里等她。柱子兴奋地大喊,小妹,你的鸽子飞回来了!小妹还没回话,柱子就从身后掏出了一只灰鸽。小妹说,我的鸽子是白的。柱子说,这几天太阳多毒啊,准是你的白鸽子被晒黑了。小妹大喝,你当我傻啊!无奈,柱子只好招了,承认鸽子是被他吃掉的,他愿意补偿她。小妹说,那你一辈子都给我做饭吧。于是,他们就开始处对象了。结婚几年之后,柱子才知道,小妹一直在骗他。那只鸽子本来就是小妹准备拿来吃的,还没来得及杀,它就飞跑了。小妹喝下那碗汤的时候,就知道那是自己的鸽子,但是柱子的厨艺太好了。——后来她每天假装去找鸽子,其实是蹭吃蹭喝,结果喜欢上","listText":"当时,我在一家餐厅打工,上菜的时候,看见老头正在搭讪一个同龄老太太。老太太回答他:“那我长得像谁啊?”老头说:“我老婆。”没想到都一把年纪啦!还这么老不正经,真猥琐!老太太也被气到了,连忙说:“你别胡说,我可是有老伴儿的”。说完起身就走。老头贼心不死,赶紧挡住老太太,说:“你先别走,听我讲个故事,是我们那个年代的故事。”出于好奇,老太太便坐了下来。老头说,我有一个发小叫柱子,当年柱子才15岁。那年代没什么吃的,柱子用弹弓打了一只鸽子,拿回来炖了汤。结果隔壁村的刘小妹跑过来,慌慌张张,应该是家里出什么事了。柱子说,大妹子,别着急,先喝口汤吧。刘小妹喝了口汤,终于镇定了些。然后她说,你有没有看见我家的鸽子?柱子吓得一哆嗦,不敢告诉她真相,便安慰她说,你别难过,鸽子一定是迷路了,过几天就会回来。第二天,刘小妹又来了,突然看到天上有一个白色的东西飞过。刘小妹惊喜地说,啊,我的鸽子!柱子说,那是我的白裤衩,被风吹走了。小妹叹了口气,眼神黯淡了下来。看着小妹这样,柱子更愧疚了,于是给她烧了个土豆。接下来的每一天,小妹都会来找她的鸽子,柱子每次都会做点吃的安抚她,小妹每次都吃得很满足。柱子开始期待给小妹做饭,他喜欢上了小妹,他就更愧疚了。有一天,小妹刚进门,就看见柱子站在院子里等她。柱子兴奋地大喊,小妹,你的鸽子飞回来了!小妹还没回话,柱子就从身后掏出了一只灰鸽。小妹说,我的鸽子是白的。柱子说,这几天太阳多毒啊,准是你的白鸽子被晒黑了。小妹大喝,你当我傻啊!无奈,柱子只好招了,承认鸽子是被他吃掉的,他愿意补偿她。小妹说,那你一辈子都给我做饭吧。于是,他们就开始处对象了。结婚几年之后,柱子才知道,小妹一直在骗他。那只鸽子本来就是小妹准备拿来吃的,还没来得及杀,它就飞跑了。小妹喝下那碗汤的时候,就知道那是自己的鸽子,但是柱子的厨艺太好了。——后来她每天假装去找鸽子,其实是蹭吃蹭喝,结果喜欢上","text":"当时,我在一家餐厅打工,上菜的时候,看见老头正在搭讪一个同龄老太太。老太太回答他:“那我长得像谁啊?”老头说:“我老婆。”没想到都一把年纪啦!还这么老不正经,真猥琐!老太太也被气到了,连忙说:“你别胡说,我可是有老伴儿的”。说完起身就走。老头贼心不死,赶紧挡住老太太,说:“你先别走,听我讲个故事,是我们那个年代的故事。”出于好奇,老太太便坐了下来。老头说,我有一个发小叫柱子,当年柱子才15岁。那年代没什么吃的,柱子用弹弓打了一只鸽子,拿回来炖了汤。结果隔壁村的刘小妹跑过来,慌慌张张,应该是家里出什么事了。柱子说,大妹子,别着急,先喝口汤吧。刘小妹喝了口汤,终于镇定了些。然后她说,你有没有看见我家的鸽子?柱子吓得一哆嗦,不敢告诉她真相,便安慰她说,你别难过,鸽子一定是迷路了,过几天就会回来。第二天,刘小妹又来了,突然看到天上有一个白色的东西飞过。刘小妹惊喜地说,啊,我的鸽子!柱子说,那是我的白裤衩,被风吹走了。小妹叹了口气,眼神黯淡了下来。看着小妹这样,柱子更愧疚了,于是给她烧了个土豆。接下来的每一天,小妹都会来找她的鸽子,柱子每次都会做点吃的安抚她,小妹每次都吃得很满足。柱子开始期待给小妹做饭,他喜欢上了小妹,他就更愧疚了。有一天,小妹刚进门,就看见柱子站在院子里等她。柱子兴奋地大喊,小妹,你的鸽子飞回来了!小妹还没回话,柱子就从身后掏出了一只灰鸽。小妹说,我的鸽子是白的。柱子说,这几天太阳多毒啊,准是你的白鸽子被晒黑了。小妹大喝,你当我傻啊!无奈,柱子只好招了,承认鸽子是被他吃掉的,他愿意补偿她。小妹说,那你一辈子都给我做饭吧。于是,他们就开始处对象了。结婚几年之后,柱子才知道,小妹一直在骗他。那只鸽子本来就是小妹准备拿来吃的,还没来得及杀,它就飞跑了。小妹喝下那碗汤的时候,就知道那是自己的鸽子,但是柱子的厨艺太好了。——后来她每天假装去找鸽子,其实是蹭吃蹭喝,结果喜欢上","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bac857212822d4eeda04deefed4216b","width":"1242","height":"2208"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398639145","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398568266,"gmtCreate":1606921004155,"gmtModify":1703845417189,"author":{"id":"3487144523952263","authorId":"3487144523952263","name":"iHUGH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85b0a58d4895e59f2b53013077f99115","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3487144523952263","idStr":"3487144523952263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398568266","repostId":"398639145","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":398639145,"gmtCreate":1606885094987,"gmtModify":1728102291359,"author":{"id":"84591292386623","authorId":"8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当地时间11月7日晚,特朗普在推特上引述法律学者说法发文:我们看到许多宣誓证词,称“存在选举舞弊”。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a> ","text":"11月10日,白宫新闻秘书凯莉·麦克纳尼提及有关“选举舞弊”的证据。她表示,有234页选民证词可以佐证这一“事实”。她称密歇根州一个县的一批选票中,有60%的人签名相同。此外还有重复计票、出现“死人票”、投票监督员受到威胁等情况。九$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 各州必须在12月8日之前解决选举纠纷,包括重新计票和就结果进行法庭辩论。选举人团的成员将于12月14日开会以最终确定结果。 另外,美国现任总统特朗普发推预告称,“选票腐败将于今晚9时(北京时间11日上午10时)在福克斯的肖恩·汉尼蒂节目中被揭露”。但是直至周三下午2时,美国方面仍没有传来选举腐败的消息。 当地时间周二早些时候,特朗普曾连发两条推文,他在推文中说,“我们正取得巨大进展,下周开始结果会出来,让美国再次伟大!”他在另一条推文中写道:“我们会赢!” 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