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冰奈儿l
股市之王
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冰奈儿l
2021-02-01
又是毫不知耻的没有依据的消息。
逼空大军转战白银!背后操盘者真的是散户吗?
冰奈儿l
2021-01-07
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
我看你们只懂趋势和箱体向上,连三浪理论都不懂,还说整体看好。有苦头吃的。
冰奈儿l
2020-09-11
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
告诉我你们这群机构为什么要放慢波动速度,目的是不是杀期权,明明可以快速反弹,然后直接崩,偏要这样墨迹。
冰奈儿l
2020-09-11
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
之前叫的最欢的那几个多头消失了,你们发现没有。哈哈😄
冰奈儿l
2020-09-11
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
这是杀期权才涨的,真是一群棒子机构。
冰奈儿l
2020-09-10
他看上谁,谁就一定的反的。
真香!巴菲特又一次对科技股出手了
冰奈儿l
2020-09-10
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
听你们吹,怎么被收割的都不知道,而且都是一些无知的散户发帖,更是害人。
冰奈儿l
2020-09-09
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
在老虎都6,7年,见到各种形形**的散户,除了靠运气还是靠运气,最后走人。
冰奈儿l
2020-09-09
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
我要让之前做多的狂妄份子认清一下,做多有做空的波动大嘛!跌起来快还是涨起来快。赚大钱就得空。
冰奈儿l
2020-09-09
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
你们连什么时候搏反弹都不知道,合适崩盘都不知道,赚的还是得亏,简直浪费时间。
冰奈儿l
2020-09-08
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
恐惧来的时候,谈价值投资是不是很好笑,人只能是人。
冰奈儿l
2020-09-05
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
哈哈,炒了近10年,总算把股市所有波动和未来涨跌情况了解清楚。以后该是成为富豪的时候了。
冰奈儿l
2020-09-04
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
想什么呢!哈哈😄
冰奈儿l
2020-09-02
$跟谁学(GSX)$
这庄真是蠢猪,拉起来给懂股票的人送钱。
冰奈儿l
2020-09-02
$跟谁学(GSX)$
早不调查,晚不调查。都是些做什么的。
冰奈儿l
2020-09-02
$跟谁学(GSX)$
等待一波百分之八十跌幅的到来。
冰奈儿l
2020-09-01
$Zoom(ZM)$
你们这群机构能不能不要这么贪婪,想说又不想说,我只要告诉所有散户你们的鬼把戏,你们还圈毛线的钱。
冰奈儿l
2020-09-01
$Zoom(ZM)$
一群混蛋机构,把一个虚拟的股票数字乱拉,用少部分股票就能拉动整体市值,然后把整体市值反应一个公司值多少钱。
冰奈儿l
2020-08-20
$柯达(KODK)$
哈哈,我看了这些发了帖子的我就想笑,炒股都是靠猜测,既然是猜测就是赌,无论赚还是亏,到最后基本都得离开这个市场。
冰奈儿l
2020-08-20
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
大超个屁,骗韭菜。任何票都跟规律走的,而不是任何消息,消息只服务于机构的安排。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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17:47","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"逼空大军转战白银!背后操盘者真的是散户吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103378464","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运?","content":"<blockquote>二月伊始,散户逼空、机构买单的大戏是否又将上演?大规模做空背后,背后的主谋又真的仅仅是散户吗?未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运?</blockquote><p>股市战场的逼空尚未落下帷幕,美国散户又在期货市场开掘了新的阵地。</p><p>故事的开端如出一辙。上周,同样是“赌徒论坛” WallStreetBets上,一位用户发帖号召散户“发动一场全球最大的白银逼空”,并豪言要将银价从25美元拉到1000美元高位,引来应者云集。</p><p>一时间现货、期货银价双双大涨,全球最大的白银ETF——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a> Silver Trust也迎来巨额资金流入。白银市场涨势甚至蔓延到全球其他国家,国内期市、澳大利亚银矿股均受到波及。</p><p>二月伊始,散户逼空、机构买单的大戏是否又将上演?大规模做空背后,背后的主谋又真的仅仅是散户吗?未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运?</p><p><b>一篇帖子引发银价暴涨</b></p><p>华尔街见闻在此前文章中提到,就在GameStop逼空引得市场高度关注之际,WallStreetBets论坛上一名ID为“jjalj30”的用户,发帖号召散户将下一轮逼空火力聚焦在白银上:</p><blockquote>“jjalj30”表示,白银市场目前是全球最受操纵的市场之一。数十家银行通过操纵黄金和白银价格来掩盖实际的通货膨胀。无论是在工业领域还是在货币领域,目前全球央行的放水行动都该推高白银价格。 <b>经过通胀调整后的白银价格应该是1000美元/盎司,而不是现在的25美元/盎司。</b>“jjalj30”认为,散户投资者可以通过持续买入白银ETF(SLV)来进行逼空,推高白银价格。 <b>即使散户投资者不在乎收益,想想类似<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>(此前因白银价格操作支付巨额罚单)这样的大行可能因为逼空而破产,这就足以激动人心。</b></blockquote><p>随后,用户名为“TheHappyHawaiian”的投资者也表达了类似观点,<b>认为可以通过抬高银价迫使更多白银期货合约进行实物交割,从而挤压空头。</b></p><blockquote>“TheHappyHawaiian”表示,市场上通过裸卖空操纵白银价格主要是以摩根大通为代表的几家华尔街大行。目前白银期货市场上账面交易的白银与实物白银的平均比率为250:1,这意味着多数交易是通过现金结算而不是实物交割完成交易。只要散户投资者能迫使更多的期货合约进行实物交割,就能挤压白银空头。</blockquote><p><b>近期狂热市场氛围的推动下,帖子一出效果立竿见影。一众投资者几乎是熟能生巧一般地,今天将现货白银价格猛推至日内暴涨逾10%,一度站上30美元/盎司,并创下去年8月11日以来新高;</b>期货开盘也上涨7%,飙升至29.095美元高点。与此同时,金银比也来到2014年来最低水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544a19ab8a6d5f1fb2f5c9da49f248cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><i>现货白银日内短暂突破30美元/盎司</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b32c45cb4746091e927b69e81d46cb84\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>现货白银创下去年8月来新高</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1bc64e4ba9416dad89d3336847b6eb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Comex白银期货猛飙</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c022e64b306cc738f116b32b3af669a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>金银比为2014来最低</i></p><p>而事实上早在上周五,白银价格就已经出现大幅波动,白银期货盘中涨幅一度突破6%,而黄金期货同期涨幅仅约0.5%。</p><p><b>强劲的涨势甚至蔓延到全球其他国家。</b>中国国内商品期市上,沪银主力合约涨幅一度扩大至8%,刷新去年9月以来高位。澳大利亚银矿股周一早间股价也大幅飙升, Argent Minerals上涨近60%,Investigator Resources涨近50%,Boab Metal涨20%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c070cbb74d6465b3da84a0fcb64d844\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>全球最大白银ETF也迎来资金大幅流入。市场数据显示,白银ETF(SLV)上周五单日流入资金高达10亿美元,这几乎是这个已有15年历史ETF此前最高流入记录的2倍。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e2e9cb0ccad6244d34bf3ed1dbe0def\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>银市疯狂之下,零售网站上的银条、银币也随之供不应求。据彭博报道,包括Money Metals、SD Bullion、JM Bullion和Apmex在内的诸多零售商均表示,鉴于白银当前的疯狂需求,它们在亚洲市场开盘前无法处理订单,已暂停销售白银产品。</p><p>SD Bullion首席执行官在其文章中表示,<b>周五收盘前的24小时内,SD Bullion卖出白银数量,几乎是平时周日开盘前整个周末卖出数量的近10倍。</b></p><p>报道援引特拉华州Argent Asset Group首席执行官Robert Higgins称,他整天都在处理交易电话,人们都在拼命购买黄金和白银,当前现货市场“非常、非常吃紧”。</p><p><b>但是,真的是散户?</b></p><p>幕后主谋真的只是散户吗?事实上,每一场逼空大戏背后,似乎都离不开机构的推波助澜。</p><p>不少分析师认为,从论坛上的帖子来看,逼空的手法和策略的专业度并不似散户所为。纽约天骄基金公司总裁郭亚夫告诉对上海证券报表示:</p><blockquote>我认真研读了他们号召做多白银的帖子,从内容上看,绝对不是普通散户可以写出来的内容,帖子里甚至提到了摩根大通的空头仓位。 <b>如果说没有机构影子的话,至少也有在金融机构工作的人以个人名义参与了。</b></blockquote><p>FXTM富拓特约分析师黄俊也称:“<b>有很多机构一直在里面,比如一些基金和白银矿商。</b>”</p><p>也许能印证这一观点的是,<b>上述提及“TheHappyHawaiian”用户的发帖全文中,甚至给出了颇具专业性的“操作模板”。</b>具体操作上,他写道:</p><blockquote>我将把50%的资金直接投资于SLV ETF,另外50%投资于4月16日到期的SLV看涨期权,行权价35美元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d875f71eb18b37c0b2ddd3d1c96b97\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">SLV的持仓量增加将引发白银价格上涨,当SLV接近35美元时,就会产生空头挤压。如果出现轧空,4月底SLV的目标价将达到75美元。更为审慎的做法是购买SLV期权和PSLV股票。</blockquote><p>不仅如此,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>财经指出,<b>该文还解释了为何在PSLV和SLV两大白银ETF中,SLV是更好的标的</b>,因为SLV自身没有什么空头,但SLV内部有很多套利盘,这些套利盘与白银的现货、期货市场相联,打掉SLV就可以让Comex交易所里面大量聚集的白银空头集体崩溃。</p><p>该文表示,现在摩根大通手上已经没什么空头了,所以现在拉白银不会遇到太大阻力。此外,SLV还有其他优势,包括:有更多经纪商提供这一标的的交易、流动性更好、有相关期权交易。</p><p><b>白银后市如何?</b></p><p>那么,最牵动市场神经的问题是:白银这一波到底还能涨多久?</p><p>市场上分析师的普遍观点似乎是,短期小幅看多,但放长远看,这轮涨势就可能只是暂时的了。</p><p><b>就在撰写文章当口,现货白银价格已于周一4:10左右短暂来到30美元/盎司以上。值得注意的是,这一点位已突破<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>此前所估30美元的12个月目标价。</b></p><p>澳洲交易商Guardian Vaults分析师John Feeney表示,Reddit论坛上的联合行动确实可以大幅影响个别股票的价格,但如果把白银和个人公司的市值相比较,不认为他们有能力显著推动白银进入逼空状态。<b>白银的市值非常大,而论坛上的人想要的是快速上涨,因此个人不会看涨太多。</b></p><p>有分析师指出,<b>最重要的一点是,贵金属市场与股票市场存在根本差异,尝试挤爆白银空头很可能波及外汇市场,一旦如此,各国央行绝对会出手干预。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCAP\">嘉盛集团</a>Joe Perry表示:</p><blockquote>贵金属通常扮演对冲通胀的角色,在美元时常走弱的背景下,贵金属走高。白银ETF和现货白银/美元都不是股票,如果人们尝试挤爆白银空头,可能影响美元与全球交易量最大的市场,即外汇市场,这是贵金属与股票之间的主要差别。作为贵金属的白银如果遭到针对性的空头回补,可能影响美元的走势。但如果确有其事,不要以为各国央行会袖手旁观。美元下跌的原因可能很多,但针对贵金属的“游戏”不会是其中之一。</blockquote><p>但也有机构持不同观点。作为一种避险资产,也是一种用于生产<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>电池板等产品的工业金属,不少机构近期原本就强烈看好白银。Metals Focus分析师Philip Newman就曾表示,2021年或将看到黄金和钯金的价格再创新高,但白银的升幅将是最大的。</p><p>从技术面看,市场分析师Jesse Colombo周日在福布斯网站发文称,<b>如果白银能够在强劲的交易量下向上突破30美元,则后续看涨的可能性将大幅增加,下一个目标价位将是35美元/盎司。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2afce75bc1cca3a69ed1fc3178148a\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>逼空大军转战白银!背后操盘者真的是散户吗?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n逼空大军转战白银!背后操盘者真的是散户吗?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-01 17:47 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619090><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>二月伊始,散户逼空、机构买单的大戏是否又将上演?大规模做空背后,背后的主谋又真的仅仅是散户吗?未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运?股市战场的逼空尚未落下帷幕,美国散户又在期货市场开掘了新的阵地。故事的开端如出一辙。上周,同样是“赌徒论坛” WallStreetBets上,一位用户发帖号召散户“发动一场全球最大的白银逼空”,并豪言要将银价从25美元拉到1000美元高位,引来应者云集。一时间现货、期货银价双双...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619090\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58095e3601987d1105ddaad4a3be8aeb","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619090","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1103378464","content_text":"二月伊始,散户逼空、机构买单的大戏是否又将上演?大规模做空背后,背后的主谋又真的仅仅是散户吗?未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运?股市战场的逼空尚未落下帷幕,美国散户又在期货市场开掘了新的阵地。故事的开端如出一辙。上周,同样是“赌徒论坛” WallStreetBets上,一位用户发帖号召散户“发动一场全球最大的白银逼空”,并豪言要将银价从25美元拉到1000美元高位,引来应者云集。一时间现货、期货银价双双大涨,全球最大的白银ETF——iShares Silver Trust也迎来巨额资金流入。白银市场涨势甚至蔓延到全球其他国家,国内期市、澳大利亚银矿股均受到波及。二月伊始,散户逼空、机构买单的大戏是否又将上演?大规模做空背后,背后的主谋又真的仅仅是散户吗?未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运?一篇帖子引发银价暴涨华尔街见闻在此前文章中提到,就在GameStop逼空引得市场高度关注之际,WallStreetBets论坛上一名ID为“jjalj30”的用户,发帖号召散户将下一轮逼空火力聚焦在白银上:“jjalj30”表示,白银市场目前是全球最受操纵的市场之一。数十家银行通过操纵黄金和白银价格来掩盖实际的通货膨胀。无论是在工业领域还是在货币领域,目前全球央行的放水行动都该推高白银价格。 经过通胀调整后的白银价格应该是1000美元/盎司,而不是现在的25美元/盎司。“jjalj30”认为,散户投资者可以通过持续买入白银ETF(SLV)来进行逼空,推高白银价格。 即使散户投资者不在乎收益,想想类似摩根大通(此前因白银价格操作支付巨额罚单)这样的大行可能因为逼空而破产,这就足以激动人心。随后,用户名为“TheHappyHawaiian”的投资者也表达了类似观点,认为可以通过抬高银价迫使更多白银期货合约进行实物交割,从而挤压空头。“TheHappyHawaiian”表示,市场上通过裸卖空操纵白银价格主要是以摩根大通为代表的几家华尔街大行。目前白银期货市场上账面交易的白银与实物白银的平均比率为250:1,这意味着多数交易是通过现金结算而不是实物交割完成交易。只要散户投资者能迫使更多的期货合约进行实物交割,就能挤压白银空头。近期狂热市场氛围的推动下,帖子一出效果立竿见影。一众投资者几乎是熟能生巧一般地,今天将现货白银价格猛推至日内暴涨逾10%,一度站上30美元/盎司,并创下去年8月11日以来新高;期货开盘也上涨7%,飙升至29.095美元高点。与此同时,金银比也来到2014年来最低水平。现货白银日内短暂突破30美元/盎司现货白银创下去年8月来新高Comex白银期货猛飙金银比为2014来最低而事实上早在上周五,白银价格就已经出现大幅波动,白银期货盘中涨幅一度突破6%,而黄金期货同期涨幅仅约0.5%。强劲的涨势甚至蔓延到全球其他国家。中国国内商品期市上,沪银主力合约涨幅一度扩大至8%,刷新去年9月以来高位。澳大利亚银矿股周一早间股价也大幅飙升, Argent Minerals上涨近60%,Investigator Resources涨近50%,Boab Metal涨20%。全球最大白银ETF也迎来资金大幅流入。市场数据显示,白银ETF(SLV)上周五单日流入资金高达10亿美元,这几乎是这个已有15年历史ETF此前最高流入记录的2倍。银市疯狂之下,零售网站上的银条、银币也随之供不应求。据彭博报道,包括Money Metals、SD Bullion、JM Bullion和Apmex在内的诸多零售商均表示,鉴于白银当前的疯狂需求,它们在亚洲市场开盘前无法处理订单,已暂停销售白银产品。SD Bullion首席执行官在其文章中表示,周五收盘前的24小时内,SD Bullion卖出白银数量,几乎是平时周日开盘前整个周末卖出数量的近10倍。报道援引特拉华州Argent Asset Group首席执行官Robert Higgins称,他整天都在处理交易电话,人们都在拼命购买黄金和白银,当前现货市场“非常、非常吃紧”。但是,真的是散户?幕后主谋真的只是散户吗?事实上,每一场逼空大戏背后,似乎都离不开机构的推波助澜。不少分析师认为,从论坛上的帖子来看,逼空的手法和策略的专业度并不似散户所为。纽约天骄基金公司总裁郭亚夫告诉对上海证券报表示:我认真研读了他们号召做多白银的帖子,从内容上看,绝对不是普通散户可以写出来的内容,帖子里甚至提到了摩根大通的空头仓位。 如果说没有机构影子的话,至少也有在金融机构工作的人以个人名义参与了。FXTM富拓特约分析师黄俊也称:“有很多机构一直在里面,比如一些基金和白银矿商。”也许能印证这一观点的是,上述提及“TheHappyHawaiian”用户的发帖全文中,甚至给出了颇具专业性的“操作模板”。具体操作上,他写道:我将把50%的资金直接投资于SLV ETF,另外50%投资于4月16日到期的SLV看涨期权,行权价35美元。SLV的持仓量增加将引发白银价格上涨,当SLV接近35美元时,就会产生空头挤压。如果出现轧空,4月底SLV的目标价将达到75美元。更为审慎的做法是购买SLV期权和PSLV股票。不仅如此,新浪财经指出,该文还解释了为何在PSLV和SLV两大白银ETF中,SLV是更好的标的,因为SLV自身没有什么空头,但SLV内部有很多套利盘,这些套利盘与白银的现货、期货市场相联,打掉SLV就可以让Comex交易所里面大量聚集的白银空头集体崩溃。该文表示,现在摩根大通手上已经没什么空头了,所以现在拉白银不会遇到太大阻力。此外,SLV还有其他优势,包括:有更多经纪商提供这一标的的交易、流动性更好、有相关期权交易。白银后市如何?那么,最牵动市场神经的问题是:白银这一波到底还能涨多久?市场上分析师的普遍观点似乎是,短期小幅看多,但放长远看,这轮涨势就可能只是暂时的了。就在撰写文章当口,现货白银价格已于周一4:10左右短暂来到30美元/盎司以上。值得注意的是,这一点位已突破高盛此前所估30美元的12个月目标价。澳洲交易商Guardian Vaults分析师John Feeney表示,Reddit论坛上的联合行动确实可以大幅影响个别股票的价格,但如果把白银和个人公司的市值相比较,不认为他们有能力显著推动白银进入逼空状态。白银的市值非常大,而论坛上的人想要的是快速上涨,因此个人不会看涨太多。有分析师指出,最重要的一点是,贵金属市场与股票市场存在根本差异,尝试挤爆白银空头很可能波及外汇市场,一旦如此,各国央行绝对会出手干预。嘉盛集团Joe Perry表示:贵金属通常扮演对冲通胀的角色,在美元时常走弱的背景下,贵金属走高。白银ETF和现货白银/美元都不是股票,如果人们尝试挤爆白银空头,可能影响美元与全球交易量最大的市场,即外汇市场,这是贵金属与股票之间的主要差别。作为贵金属的白银如果遭到针对性的空头回补,可能影响美元的走势。但如果确有其事,不要以为各国央行会袖手旁观。美元下跌的原因可能很多,但针对贵金属的“游戏”不会是其中之一。但也有机构持不同观点。作为一种避险资产,也是一种用于生产太阳能电池板等产品的工业金属,不少机构近期原本就强烈看好白银。Metals Focus分析师Philip Newman就曾表示,2021年或将看到黄金和钯金的价格再创新高,但白银的升幅将是最大的。从技术面看,市场分析师Jesse Colombo周日在福布斯网站发文称,如果白银能够在强劲的交易量下向上突破30美元,则后续看涨的可能性将大幅增加,下一个目标价位将是35美元/盎司。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338712770,"gmtCreate":1609967740290,"gmtModify":1703741707302,"author":{"id":"3486528645019346","authorId":"3486528645019346","name":"冰奈儿l","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c32639ea68c2118a2e3f6ce0c04f26b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486528645019346","authorIdStr":"3486528645019346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>我看你们只懂趋势和箱体向上,连三浪理论都不懂,还说整体看好。有苦头吃的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>我看你们只懂趋势和箱体向上,连三浪理论都不懂,还说整体看好。有苦头吃的。","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$我看你们只懂趋势和箱体向上,连三浪理论都不懂,还说整体看好。有苦头吃的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338712770","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3513950802823958","authorId":"3513950802823958","name":"blood","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb8f62709be0ccaa582a0c0cafc5e6b8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3513950802823958","authorIdStr":"3513950802823958"},"content":"技术流就图一乐,你来分析看看特斯拉蔚来九城","text":"技术流就图一乐,你来分析看看特斯拉蔚来九城","html":"技术流就图一乐,你来分析看看特斯拉蔚来九城"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976436217,"gmtCreate":1599808488739,"gmtModify":1703819776894,"author":{"id":"3486528645019346","authorId":"3486528645019346","name":"冰奈儿l","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c32639ea68c2118a2e3f6ce0c04f26b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486528645019346","authorIdStr":"3486528645019346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ </a>告诉我你们这群机构为什么要放慢波动速度,目的是不是杀期权,明明可以快速反弹,然后直接崩,偏要这样墨迹。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ </a>告诉我你们这群机构为什么要放慢波动速度,目的是不是杀期权,明明可以快速反弹,然后直接崩,偏要这样墨迹。","text":"$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 告诉我你们这群机构为什么要放慢波动速度,目的是不是杀期权,明明可以快速反弹,然后直接崩,偏要这样墨迹。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976436217","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976527387,"gmtCreate":1599782511649,"gmtModify":1703819704588,"author":{"id":"3486528645019346","authorId":"3486528645019346","name":"冰奈儿l","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c32639ea68c2118a2e3f6ce0c04f26b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486528645019346","authorIdStr":"3486528645019346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>之前叫的最欢的那几个多头消失了,你们发现没有。哈哈😄","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>之前叫的最欢的那几个多头消失了,你们发现没有。哈哈😄","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$之前叫的最欢的那几个多头消失了,你们发现没有。哈哈😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976527387","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976527002,"gmtCreate":1599782418106,"gmtModify":1703819704415,"author":{"id":"3486528645019346","authorId":"3486528645019346","name":"冰奈儿l","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c32639ea68c2118a2e3f6ce0c04f26b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486528645019346","authorIdStr":"3486528645019346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>这是杀期权才涨的,真是一群棒子机构。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>这是杀期权才涨的,真是一群棒子机构。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$这是杀期权才涨的,真是一群棒子机构。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976527002","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976243307,"gmtCreate":1599746447609,"gmtModify":1703819587177,"author":{"id":"3486528645019346","authorId":"3486528645019346","name":"冰奈儿l","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c32639ea68c2118a2e3f6ce0c04f26b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486528645019346","authorIdStr":"3486528645019346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"他看上谁,谁就一定的反的。","listText":"他看上谁,谁就一定的反的。","text":"他看上谁,谁就一定的反的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976243307","repostId":"1151052794","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151052794","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1599729681,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151052794?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-10 17:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"真香!巴菲特又一次对科技股出手了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151052794","media":"格隆汇","summary":"在美股动荡不安之际,巴菲特的再一次“搞事”吸引了市场的注意。\n特别的是,这一次,他将手伸向了意料之外的地方——科技独角兽的IPO。\nSnowflake,一家在硅谷成长速度飞速的云计算服务公司,本就备受","content":"<p>在美股动荡不安之际,巴菲特的再一次“搞事”吸引了市场的注意。</p>\n<p>特别的是,这一次,<b>他将手伸向了意料之外的地方——科技独角兽的IPO</b>。</p>\n<p>Snowflake,<b>一家在硅谷成长速度飞速的云计算服务公司</b>,本就备受期待,这次更是得到了更多的瞩目。</p>\n<p>成立于2012年,致力于提供云原生数据仓库,为企业存储大规模的信息,用以机器学习算法等应用的处理。目前客户包括Capital One、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNE\">索尼</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>等企业。</p>\n<p>近日,该公司更新了招股书,根据披露信息,由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>作为联合承销商,其发行价在75-85美元,计划发行2800万股,募集资金超20亿美元,预计下周在纽交所上市。<b>若完全行使超配权,最高可募资27亿美元,估值或达到237亿美元</b>。</p>\n<p>其中,<b>巴菲特旗下的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>·哈撒韦公司计划在Snowflake上市时投资5.7亿美元(约合39亿元人民币)以上</b>。</p>\n<p>巴菲特这一次的大动作可谓是“一石激起千层浪”,令人在意,毕竟他曾直言“看不懂”科技股,而本次押注Snowflake的背后在一定程度<b>上展现了他近年来在投资方向以及心态上的一些转变</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f041c44994e8d9132dc9695da452e3ca\" tg-width=\"200\" tg-height=\"200\"></p>\n<p><b>曾对科技股“敬而远之”?</b></p>\n<p>众所周知,巴菲特一向对科技股“敬而远之”,且不轻易参与新股IPO,<b>一般习惯于投资他的能力圈内了解的企业</b>。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <b>在54年中,我认为伯克希尔没有买过新发行的股票</b>...围绕IPO交易的炒作以及这种公司有着推高股价的强大动机,是远离IPO的令人信服的理由。”——巴菲特(去年5月采访)\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>坚持投资他了解的公司去贯彻其价值投资的逻辑已成为巴菲特的核心投资要义。</b></p>\n<p>而在这一要义之下,科技股并不是巴菲特擅长的领域,更何况其过往经验加重了这一“心理阴影”。</p>\n<p>巴菲特曾为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>打破了“不投资科技股”的原则,在2011年斥资超百亿美元IBM并成为第一大股东,出于对其转型移动端和云计算的乐观预期。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “已建立了一种稳健的商业模式,使其能够预测未来5年的收益,以及避免行业的正常波动。”——IBM\n</blockquote>\n<p>然而,这一老牌科技巨头显然打了自己的脸,其转型过程坎坷,IBM并没有及时稳住经营,提升业绩,使得巴菲特大失所望,<b>在股价比首次投资时低了约30%的时候,便及时进行断舍离,抛售了IBM的所有股票,此后对科技股的态度便更为谨慎</b>。</p>\n<p>虽然投资IBM的过往并不愉快,但俗话说的好,不要为了一棵树放弃整个森林,巴菲特与科技股的缘分并没有止步于此。</p>\n<p><b>对科技股“真香”了?</b></p>\n<p>要知道<b>真香定律从不缺席</b>,巴菲特也难逃这一“魔咒”。</p>\n<p>随着科技革命的热风不断吹起,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等科技巨头在这一新时代下大显身手,接二连三成就了属于自己的高光时刻。</p>\n<p>人们这时才发现了<b>这位名声显赫的股神或许也有看走眼的时候</b>。</p>\n<p>好在在伯克希尔的两位投资掌门人Todd Combs 和Ted Weschler的“倾情安利”之下,<b>2016年旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司开始建仓苹果股票,并在此后不断增持</b>。</p>\n<p>而这一破天荒的举动已经让他尝到了科技硕果带来的甜头。</p>\n<p>新冠疫情席卷全球之后,全球经济受到明显重创,但头部科技标的利用线上业务的需求释放而逐步恢复稳定,其中,苹果便是如此,最新财报大超市场预期,股价市值势如破竹,一举迈入2万亿美元俱乐部,今年以来其股价累计涨幅超过60%以上。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “苹果公司可能是我所知道的世界上最好的企业。”——巴菲特\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8c85c4a48400c69a0d31128ac4fe37\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"334\"></p>\n<p>(来源:Choice)</p>\n<p>而<b>押注苹果的巴菲特自然赚得盆满钵满</b>。</p>\n<p>在最新释出的全球最赚钱的100家企业榜单中,<b>巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒伟坐稳榜首,第二财季净利润达到262.95亿美元,可以说苹果带来的账面收益自然功不可没</b>,日本软银(116.07亿美元)、苹果(112.53亿美元)紧随其后。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “截止今年二季度末伯克希尔持仓股中,科技股市值第一次超越金融,科技股总市值约占38.24%,金融股占35.22%...\n <b>而在巴菲特持仓前十榜单里,苹果排名第一</b>。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48cf8540aeae14b6a7fa0461bc26f5df\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"703\"></p>\n<p>(来源:推特)</p>\n<p>可以发现,虽然巴菲特直言“看不懂”科技股,但这也不妨碍其通过上市公司基本面与业绩上涨潜力去实施价值投资。</p>\n<p>没有人可以预见未来真正会发生什么,但是你可以通过对现状的选择去影响未来的走势,尤其是当你发现这一走势是有预期的。</p>\n<p>而本次斥资5.7亿美元看好Snowflake,或也是<b>看到了其背后云服务市场的蛋糕潜力</b>。</p>\n<p>现如今,第四次工业革命旗帜飞扬,科技日新月异刷新人们的认知,尤其在疫情发生之后,在线服务的需求激增已加快了新技术对日常的渗透,蓝海显现,那么入局其中的企业势必可以分到一杯羹。</p>\n<p>云计算便成为一个不错的选择,它是目前疫情时期所有数字化活动的重要支撑动能。2019年包括基础设施即服务(IaaS)、平台即服务(PaaS)和软件即服务(SaaS)等在内的全球公共云服务市场总收入达到2427亿美元,预计2020年全球公有云服务市场将增长 6.3%,总额将达到 2579 亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1884241f814ed380505181c7e7bbaecb\" tg-width=\"473\" tg-height=\"338\"></p>\n<p>(来源:Gartner)</p>\n<p>根据招股书披露的财报显示,2020财年,Snowflake的营收为2.65亿美元,同比增长174%;截至今年7月末,其营收达到2.42亿美元,同比增长133%,预计全年营收或将超5亿美元;同时,Snowflake净亏损有所收窄,今年1月底,公司净亏损达到3.485亿美元,截止到今年7月末,净亏损降至1.772亿美元;且截止到今年7月末,毛利率由去年1月的46.5%升至61.6%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f0e0032d9e3d56ed848418e5f39b5cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"224\">(来源:官方招股书)</p>\n<p>作为拥有近1500亿美元现金的伯克希尔哈撒韦来说,<b>用5.7亿美元去投资一个颇具前景的行业中受到看好的硅谷独角兽算是一次性价比较高的买卖</b>。</p>\n<p><b>科技股泡沫并不可怕?</b></p>\n<p>但是,<b>我们无法忽视目前美股高涨之下的泡沫</b>,尤其是这一现象在科技股上表现更为明显。</p>\n<p>在美联储的“大放水”之下,市场流动性过于充裕,美股此前持续走牛了一段时间,其间科技股频频创出新高更是推高了人们对这一板块的期待。</p>\n<p>而这一现象或许只是假象,毕竟目前疫情对美国这一重灾区冲击过甚,<b>资本市场与基本经济面已产生严重的断裂</b>,背离之势尽显。</p>\n<p>那么,这一不断冲高之下,<b>有的只是受乐观驱动而无限膨胀的泡沫,当避险情绪占上风之后,股市容易遭受逆转,上演跌宕起伏的过山车行情</b>,此前美股连续三日收跌便是例子。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a31a7750aeaa7fd3a8a36a4ea34adad\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"507\"></p>\n<p>(来源:FactSet)</p>\n<blockquote>\n “在连跌三个交易日之后,美国六大主要科技公司市值损失超过了1万亿美元,\n <b>其中,苹果的损失最大,达到3180亿美元</b>,按照5.73%的持股比例,过去三个交易日巴菲特因其损失的账面金额超过182亿美元(折合人民币1246亿元)。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p>显然,科技股此前的颓势是在多重利空释出之下,<b>受到了市场对其估值触及天花板引发的忧虑反噬</b>。</p>\n<p>而在泡沫有所挤压过后,<b>基于头部科技股的成长前景,其在这一盘整时期的业绩韧性依旧存有,投资者也在等着市场大跌抄底的机会</b>,这也就是为什么隔夜美股会反弹,明星科技股扬眉吐气的重要原因。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14effce555d7cdbef283f8b9c14520be\" tg-width=\"754\" tg-height=\"373\"></p>\n<p>(来源:Choice)</p>\n<p>也许泡沫并不可怕,可怕的是回避泡沫而继续头脑发热跟风投资,而选好价值标的并进行长期跟踪才是巴菲特的生存之道。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdf8f059c7ddbffde8c8d88900ebca\" tg-width=\"198\" tg-height=\"165\"></p>\n<p><b>结语</b></p>\n<p>2020年,新冠疫情席卷全球,巴菲特在这一特殊时期迎来了自己的鲐背之年。</p>\n<p>而回顾这大半年,可以发现<b>巴菲特的投资方向并不是一成不变的</b>,他在一边了解市场新趋势一边转变,并在寻找新类型新方向的投资。</p>\n<p>无论是清仓航空股,减持银行股,进行人生中第一笔对黄金股的投资,又或是本次对Snowflake进行投资,都不是一种“打脸”,而是基于审时度势的选择。</p>\n<p>有趣的是,巴菲特助力Snowflake是在近期美股科技股遭大规模抛售的背景下进行的,其也许依旧身体力行向外界透露着这一信号,<b>别人贪婪是我恐惧,别人恐惧时我贪婪</b>。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n真香!巴菲特又一次对科技股出手了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-09-10 17:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>在美股动荡不安之际,巴菲特的再一次“搞事”吸引了市场的注意。</p>\n<p>特别的是,这一次,<b>他将手伸向了意料之外的地方——科技独角兽的IPO</b>。</p>\n<p>Snowflake,<b>一家在硅谷成长速度飞速的云计算服务公司</b>,本就备受期待,这次更是得到了更多的瞩目。</p>\n<p>成立于2012年,致力于提供云原生数据仓库,为企业存储大规模的信息,用以机器学习算法等应用的处理。目前客户包括Capital One、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNE\">索尼</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>等企业。</p>\n<p>近日,该公司更新了招股书,根据披露信息,由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>作为联合承销商,其发行价在75-85美元,计划发行2800万股,募集资金超20亿美元,预计下周在纽交所上市。<b>若完全行使超配权,最高可募资27亿美元,估值或达到237亿美元</b>。</p>\n<p>其中,<b>巴菲特旗下的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>·哈撒韦公司计划在Snowflake上市时投资5.7亿美元(约合39亿元人民币)以上</b>。</p>\n<p>巴菲特这一次的大动作可谓是“一石激起千层浪”,令人在意,毕竟他曾直言“看不懂”科技股,而本次押注Snowflake的背后在一定程度<b>上展现了他近年来在投资方向以及心态上的一些转变</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f041c44994e8d9132dc9695da452e3ca\" tg-width=\"200\" tg-height=\"200\"></p>\n<p><b>曾对科技股“敬而远之”?</b></p>\n<p>众所周知,巴菲特一向对科技股“敬而远之”,且不轻易参与新股IPO,<b>一般习惯于投资他的能力圈内了解的企业</b>。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <b>在54年中,我认为伯克希尔没有买过新发行的股票</b>...围绕IPO交易的炒作以及这种公司有着推高股价的强大动机,是远离IPO的令人信服的理由。”——巴菲特(去年5月采访)\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>坚持投资他了解的公司去贯彻其价值投资的逻辑已成为巴菲特的核心投资要义。</b></p>\n<p>而在这一要义之下,科技股并不是巴菲特擅长的领域,更何况其过往经验加重了这一“心理阴影”。</p>\n<p>巴菲特曾为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>打破了“不投资科技股”的原则,在2011年斥资超百亿美元IBM并成为第一大股东,出于对其转型移动端和云计算的乐观预期。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “已建立了一种稳健的商业模式,使其能够预测未来5年的收益,以及避免行业的正常波动。”——IBM\n</blockquote>\n<p>然而,这一老牌科技巨头显然打了自己的脸,其转型过程坎坷,IBM并没有及时稳住经营,提升业绩,使得巴菲特大失所望,<b>在股价比首次投资时低了约30%的时候,便及时进行断舍离,抛售了IBM的所有股票,此后对科技股的态度便更为谨慎</b>。</p>\n<p>虽然投资IBM的过往并不愉快,但俗话说的好,不要为了一棵树放弃整个森林,巴菲特与科技股的缘分并没有止步于此。</p>\n<p><b>对科技股“真香”了?</b></p>\n<p>要知道<b>真香定律从不缺席</b>,巴菲特也难逃这一“魔咒”。</p>\n<p>随着科技革命的热风不断吹起,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等科技巨头在这一新时代下大显身手,接二连三成就了属于自己的高光时刻。</p>\n<p>人们这时才发现了<b>这位名声显赫的股神或许也有看走眼的时候</b>。</p>\n<p>好在在伯克希尔的两位投资掌门人Todd Combs 和Ted Weschler的“倾情安利”之下,<b>2016年旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司开始建仓苹果股票,并在此后不断增持</b>。</p>\n<p>而这一破天荒的举动已经让他尝到了科技硕果带来的甜头。</p>\n<p>新冠疫情席卷全球之后,全球经济受到明显重创,但头部科技标的利用线上业务的需求释放而逐步恢复稳定,其中,苹果便是如此,最新财报大超市场预期,股价市值势如破竹,一举迈入2万亿美元俱乐部,今年以来其股价累计涨幅超过60%以上。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “苹果公司可能是我所知道的世界上最好的企业。”——巴菲特\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8c85c4a48400c69a0d31128ac4fe37\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"334\"></p>\n<p>(来源:Choice)</p>\n<p>而<b>押注苹果的巴菲特自然赚得盆满钵满</b>。</p>\n<p>在最新释出的全球最赚钱的100家企业榜单中,<b>巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒伟坐稳榜首,第二财季净利润达到262.95亿美元,可以说苹果带来的账面收益自然功不可没</b>,日本软银(116.07亿美元)、苹果(112.53亿美元)紧随其后。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “截止今年二季度末伯克希尔持仓股中,科技股市值第一次超越金融,科技股总市值约占38.24%,金融股占35.22%...\n <b>而在巴菲特持仓前十榜单里,苹果排名第一</b>。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48cf8540aeae14b6a7fa0461bc26f5df\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"703\"></p>\n<p>(来源:推特)</p>\n<p>可以发现,虽然巴菲特直言“看不懂”科技股,但这也不妨碍其通过上市公司基本面与业绩上涨潜力去实施价值投资。</p>\n<p>没有人可以预见未来真正会发生什么,但是你可以通过对现状的选择去影响未来的走势,尤其是当你发现这一走势是有预期的。</p>\n<p>而本次斥资5.7亿美元看好Snowflake,或也是<b>看到了其背后云服务市场的蛋糕潜力</b>。</p>\n<p>现如今,第四次工业革命旗帜飞扬,科技日新月异刷新人们的认知,尤其在疫情发生之后,在线服务的需求激增已加快了新技术对日常的渗透,蓝海显现,那么入局其中的企业势必可以分到一杯羹。</p>\n<p>云计算便成为一个不错的选择,它是目前疫情时期所有数字化活动的重要支撑动能。2019年包括基础设施即服务(IaaS)、平台即服务(PaaS)和软件即服务(SaaS)等在内的全球公共云服务市场总收入达到2427亿美元,预计2020年全球公有云服务市场将增长 6.3%,总额将达到 2579 亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1884241f814ed380505181c7e7bbaecb\" tg-width=\"473\" tg-height=\"338\"></p>\n<p>(来源:Gartner)</p>\n<p>根据招股书披露的财报显示,2020财年,Snowflake的营收为2.65亿美元,同比增长174%;截至今年7月末,其营收达到2.42亿美元,同比增长133%,预计全年营收或将超5亿美元;同时,Snowflake净亏损有所收窄,今年1月底,公司净亏损达到3.485亿美元,截止到今年7月末,净亏损降至1.772亿美元;且截止到今年7月末,毛利率由去年1月的46.5%升至61.6%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f0e0032d9e3d56ed848418e5f39b5cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"224\">(来源:官方招股书)</p>\n<p>作为拥有近1500亿美元现金的伯克希尔哈撒韦来说,<b>用5.7亿美元去投资一个颇具前景的行业中受到看好的硅谷独角兽算是一次性价比较高的买卖</b>。</p>\n<p><b>科技股泡沫并不可怕?</b></p>\n<p>但是,<b>我们无法忽视目前美股高涨之下的泡沫</b>,尤其是这一现象在科技股上表现更为明显。</p>\n<p>在美联储的“大放水”之下,市场流动性过于充裕,美股此前持续走牛了一段时间,其间科技股频频创出新高更是推高了人们对这一板块的期待。</p>\n<p>而这一现象或许只是假象,毕竟目前疫情对美国这一重灾区冲击过甚,<b>资本市场与基本经济面已产生严重的断裂</b>,背离之势尽显。</p>\n<p>那么,这一不断冲高之下,<b>有的只是受乐观驱动而无限膨胀的泡沫,当避险情绪占上风之后,股市容易遭受逆转,上演跌宕起伏的过山车行情</b>,此前美股连续三日收跌便是例子。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a31a7750aeaa7fd3a8a36a4ea34adad\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"507\"></p>\n<p>(来源:FactSet)</p>\n<blockquote>\n “在连跌三个交易日之后,美国六大主要科技公司市值损失超过了1万亿美元,\n <b>其中,苹果的损失最大,达到3180亿美元</b>,按照5.73%的持股比例,过去三个交易日巴菲特因其损失的账面金额超过182亿美元(折合人民币1246亿元)。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p>显然,科技股此前的颓势是在多重利空释出之下,<b>受到了市场对其估值触及天花板引发的忧虑反噬</b>。</p>\n<p>而在泡沫有所挤压过后,<b>基于头部科技股的成长前景,其在这一盘整时期的业绩韧性依旧存有,投资者也在等着市场大跌抄底的机会</b>,这也就是为什么隔夜美股会反弹,明星科技股扬眉吐气的重要原因。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14effce555d7cdbef283f8b9c14520be\" tg-width=\"754\" tg-height=\"373\"></p>\n<p>(来源:Choice)</p>\n<p>也许泡沫并不可怕,可怕的是回避泡沫而继续头脑发热跟风投资,而选好价值标的并进行长期跟踪才是巴菲特的生存之道。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdf8f059c7ddbffde8c8d88900ebca\" tg-width=\"198\" tg-height=\"165\"></p>\n<p><b>结语</b></p>\n<p>2020年,新冠疫情席卷全球,巴菲特在这一特殊时期迎来了自己的鲐背之年。</p>\n<p>而回顾这大半年,可以发现<b>巴菲特的投资方向并不是一成不变的</b>,他在一边了解市场新趋势一边转变,并在寻找新类型新方向的投资。</p>\n<p>无论是清仓航空股,减持银行股,进行人生中第一笔对黄金股的投资,又或是本次对Snowflake进行投资,都不是一种“打脸”,而是基于审时度势的选择。</p>\n<p>有趣的是,巴菲特助力Snowflake是在近期美股科技股遭大规模抛售的背景下进行的,其也许依旧身体力行向外界透露着这一信号,<b>别人贪婪是我恐惧,别人恐惧时我贪婪</b>。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1b9fef028787bba142fa31212ae49d2","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151052794","content_text":"在美股动荡不安之际,巴菲特的再一次“搞事”吸引了市场的注意。\n特别的是,这一次,他将手伸向了意料之外的地方——科技独角兽的IPO。\nSnowflake,一家在硅谷成长速度飞速的云计算服务公司,本就备受期待,这次更是得到了更多的瞩目。\n成立于2012年,致力于提供云原生数据仓库,为企业存储大规模的信息,用以机器学习算法等应用的处理。目前客户包括Capital One、索尼、Adobe等企业。\n近日,该公司更新了招股书,根据披露信息,由高盛和摩根士丹利作为联合承销商,其发行价在75-85美元,计划发行2800万股,募集资金超20亿美元,预计下周在纽交所上市。若完全行使超配权,最高可募资27亿美元,估值或达到237亿美元。\n其中,巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司计划在Snowflake上市时投资5.7亿美元(约合39亿元人民币)以上。\n巴菲特这一次的大动作可谓是“一石激起千层浪”,令人在意,毕竟他曾直言“看不懂”科技股,而本次押注Snowflake的背后在一定程度上展现了他近年来在投资方向以及心态上的一些转变。\n\n曾对科技股“敬而远之”?\n众所周知,巴菲特一向对科技股“敬而远之”,且不轻易参与新股IPO,一般习惯于投资他的能力圈内了解的企业。\n\n “\n 在54年中,我认为伯克希尔没有买过新发行的股票...围绕IPO交易的炒作以及这种公司有着推高股价的强大动机,是远离IPO的令人信服的理由。”——巴菲特(去年5月采访)\n\n坚持投资他了解的公司去贯彻其价值投资的逻辑已成为巴菲特的核心投资要义。\n而在这一要义之下,科技股并不是巴菲特擅长的领域,更何况其过往经验加重了这一“心理阴影”。\n巴菲特曾为IBM打破了“不投资科技股”的原则,在2011年斥资超百亿美元IBM并成为第一大股东,出于对其转型移动端和云计算的乐观预期。\n\n “已建立了一种稳健的商业模式,使其能够预测未来5年的收益,以及避免行业的正常波动。”——IBM\n\n然而,这一老牌科技巨头显然打了自己的脸,其转型过程坎坷,IBM并没有及时稳住经营,提升业绩,使得巴菲特大失所望,在股价比首次投资时低了约30%的时候,便及时进行断舍离,抛售了IBM的所有股票,此后对科技股的态度便更为谨慎。\n虽然投资IBM的过往并不愉快,但俗话说的好,不要为了一棵树放弃整个森林,巴菲特与科技股的缘分并没有止步于此。\n对科技股“真香”了?\n要知道真香定律从不缺席,巴菲特也难逃这一“魔咒”。\n随着科技革命的热风不断吹起,苹果、亚马逊等科技巨头在这一新时代下大显身手,接二连三成就了属于自己的高光时刻。\n人们这时才发现了这位名声显赫的股神或许也有看走眼的时候。\n好在在伯克希尔的两位投资掌门人Todd Combs 和Ted Weschler的“倾情安利”之下,2016年旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司开始建仓苹果股票,并在此后不断增持。\n而这一破天荒的举动已经让他尝到了科技硕果带来的甜头。\n新冠疫情席卷全球之后,全球经济受到明显重创,但头部科技标的利用线上业务的需求释放而逐步恢复稳定,其中,苹果便是如此,最新财报大超市场预期,股价市值势如破竹,一举迈入2万亿美元俱乐部,今年以来其股价累计涨幅超过60%以上。\n\n “苹果公司可能是我所知道的世界上最好的企业。”——巴菲特\n\n\n(来源:Choice)\n而押注苹果的巴菲特自然赚得盆满钵满。\n在最新释出的全球最赚钱的100家企业榜单中,巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒伟坐稳榜首,第二财季净利润达到262.95亿美元,可以说苹果带来的账面收益自然功不可没,日本软银(116.07亿美元)、苹果(112.53亿美元)紧随其后。\n\n “截止今年二季度末伯克希尔持仓股中,科技股市值第一次超越金融,科技股总市值约占38.24%,金融股占35.22%...\n 而在巴菲特持仓前十榜单里,苹果排名第一。”——公开数据\n\n\n(来源:推特)\n可以发现,虽然巴菲特直言“看不懂”科技股,但这也不妨碍其通过上市公司基本面与业绩上涨潜力去实施价值投资。\n没有人可以预见未来真正会发生什么,但是你可以通过对现状的选择去影响未来的走势,尤其是当你发现这一走势是有预期的。\n而本次斥资5.7亿美元看好Snowflake,或也是看到了其背后云服务市场的蛋糕潜力。\n现如今,第四次工业革命旗帜飞扬,科技日新月异刷新人们的认知,尤其在疫情发生之后,在线服务的需求激增已加快了新技术对日常的渗透,蓝海显现,那么入局其中的企业势必可以分到一杯羹。\n云计算便成为一个不错的选择,它是目前疫情时期所有数字化活动的重要支撑动能。2019年包括基础设施即服务(IaaS)、平台即服务(PaaS)和软件即服务(SaaS)等在内的全球公共云服务市场总收入达到2427亿美元,预计2020年全球公有云服务市场将增长 6.3%,总额将达到 2579 亿美元。\n\n(来源:Gartner)\n根据招股书披露的财报显示,2020财年,Snowflake的营收为2.65亿美元,同比增长174%;截至今年7月末,其营收达到2.42亿美元,同比增长133%,预计全年营收或将超5亿美元;同时,Snowflake净亏损有所收窄,今年1月底,公司净亏损达到3.485亿美元,截止到今年7月末,净亏损降至1.772亿美元;且截止到今年7月末,毛利率由去年1月的46.5%升至61.6%。\n(来源:官方招股书)\n作为拥有近1500亿美元现金的伯克希尔哈撒韦来说,用5.7亿美元去投资一个颇具前景的行业中受到看好的硅谷独角兽算是一次性价比较高的买卖。\n科技股泡沫并不可怕?\n但是,我们无法忽视目前美股高涨之下的泡沫,尤其是这一现象在科技股上表现更为明显。\n在美联储的“大放水”之下,市场流动性过于充裕,美股此前持续走牛了一段时间,其间科技股频频创出新高更是推高了人们对这一板块的期待。\n而这一现象或许只是假象,毕竟目前疫情对美国这一重灾区冲击过甚,资本市场与基本经济面已产生严重的断裂,背离之势尽显。\n那么,这一不断冲高之下,有的只是受乐观驱动而无限膨胀的泡沫,当避险情绪占上风之后,股市容易遭受逆转,上演跌宕起伏的过山车行情,此前美股连续三日收跌便是例子。\n\n(来源:FactSet)\n\n “在连跌三个交易日之后,美国六大主要科技公司市值损失超过了1万亿美元,\n 其中,苹果的损失最大,达到3180亿美元,按照5.73%的持股比例,过去三个交易日巴菲特因其损失的账面金额超过182亿美元(折合人民币1246亿元)。”——公开数据\n\n显然,科技股此前的颓势是在多重利空释出之下,受到了市场对其估值触及天花板引发的忧虑反噬。\n而在泡沫有所挤压过后,基于头部科技股的成长前景,其在这一盘整时期的业绩韧性依旧存有,投资者也在等着市场大跌抄底的机会,这也就是为什么隔夜美股会反弹,明星科技股扬眉吐气的重要原因。\n\n(来源:Choice)\n也许泡沫并不可怕,可怕的是回避泡沫而继续头脑发热跟风投资,而选好价值标的并进行长期跟踪才是巴菲特的生存之道。\n\n结语\n2020年,新冠疫情席卷全球,巴菲特在这一特殊时期迎来了自己的鲐背之年。\n而回顾这大半年,可以发现巴菲特的投资方向并不是一成不变的,他在一边了解市场新趋势一边转变,并在寻找新类型新方向的投资。\n无论是清仓航空股,减持银行股,进行人生中第一笔对黄金股的投资,又或是本次对Snowflake进行投资,都不是一种“打脸”,而是基于审时度势的选择。\n有趣的是,巴菲特助力Snowflake是在近期美股科技股遭大规模抛售的背景下进行的,其也许依旧身体力行向外界透露着这一信号,别人贪婪是我恐惧,别人恐惧时我贪婪。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976298269,"gmtCreate":1599729227151,"gmtModify":1703819498743,"author":{"id":"3486528645019346","authorId":"3486528645019346","name":"冰奈儿l","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c32639ea68c2118a2e3f6ce0c04f26b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486528645019346","authorIdStr":"3486528645019346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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</a>在老虎都6,7年,见到各种形形**的散户,除了靠运气还是靠运气,最后走人。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ </a>在老虎都6,7年,见到各种形形**的散户,除了靠运气还是靠运气,最后走人。","text":"$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 在老虎都6,7年,见到各种形形**的散户,除了靠运气还是靠运气,最后走人。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976801022","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3481255312417370","authorId":"3481255312417370","name":"老蒋哥哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d963c596c12aecfa4be2b3e3df433b","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3481255312417370","authorIdStr":"3481255312417370"},"content":"哈哈哈...只要不卖就不亏....","text":"哈哈哈...只要不卖就不亏....","html":"哈哈哈...只要不卖就不亏...."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976166726,"gmtCreate":1599640763365,"gmtModify":1703819145574,"author":{"id":"3486528645019346","authorId":"3486528645019346","name":"冰奈儿l","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c32639ea68c2118a2e3f6ce0c04f26b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486528645019346","authorIdStr":"3486528645019346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ </a>我要让之前做多的狂妄份子认清一下,做多有做空的波动大嘛!跌起来快还是涨起来快。赚大钱就得空。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ </a>我要让之前做多的狂妄份子认清一下,做多有做空的波动大嘛!跌起来快还是涨起来快。赚大钱就得空。","text":"$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 我要让之前做多的狂妄份子认清一下,做多有做空的波动大嘛!跌起来快还是涨起来快。赚大钱就得空。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976166726","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976322041,"gmtCreate":1599610002883,"gmtModify":1703819026001,"author":{"id":"3486528645019346","authorId":"3486528645019346","name":"冰奈儿l","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c32639ea68c2118a2e3f6ce0c04f26b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486528645019346","authorIdStr":"3486528645019346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>你们连什么时候搏反弹都不知道,合适崩盘都不知道,赚的还是得亏,简直浪费时间。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>你们连什么时候搏反弹都不知道,合适崩盘都不知道,赚的还是得亏,简直浪费时间。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$你们连什么时候搏反弹都不知道,合适崩盘都不知道,赚的还是得亏,简直浪费时间。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976322041","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2975,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976919901,"gmtCreate":1599567737803,"gmtModify":1703818841840,"author":{"id":"3486528645019346","authorId":"3486528645019346","name":"冰奈儿l","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c32639ea68c2118a2e3f6ce0c04f26b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486528645019346","authorIdStr":"3486528645019346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>恐惧来的时候,谈价值投资是不是很好笑,人只能是人。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>恐惧来的时候,谈价值投资是不是很好笑,人只能是人。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$恐惧来的时候,谈价值投资是不是很好笑,人只能是人。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976919901","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"content":"如果你认为有价值,那就不用怕了","text":"如果你认为有价值,那就不用怕了","html":"如果你认为有价值,那就不用怕了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":978580861,"gmtCreate":1599270393653,"gmtModify":1703818294645,"author":{"id":"3486528645019346","authorId":"3486528645019346","name":"冰奈儿l","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c32639ea68c2118a2e3f6ce0c04f26b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486528645019346","authorIdStr":"3486528645019346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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