蔡头的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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0勋章

2023-12-10

寒冬来临，后会无期$A50指数主连 2312(CNmain)$ 这就是未来的港股，恶化的投资环境，越来越差的流动性，无法形成任何合力。只会一直阴跌到无底洞。

2022-02-22

[微笑]

@阿尔法工场:$华宝国际(00336)$ 电白，对大多数人来说，是个陌生的地名。但这座西南沿海的边陲小镇，却造就了上百位亿万富豪。然而，比起电白商人的美誉，人们提起电白，总会下意识想到一些不太光彩的字眼。令人无奈的偏见背后，是电白作为一个“成瘾”重镇的艰难之路。

2021-10-14

支持，可以交易的时候再通知一下

@出没在交易圈的情报员:MSCI中国A50互联互通指数期货即将上线

2021-05-28

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-28

垄断了都还亏钱

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-19

这抄底太刺激了[难过] ，平仓好好睡觉

2021-05-14

CPI真这么高又是一波大跌

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-30

今年争取拿个前五吧

@炒股大赛:号外！实盘赛战报：老虎证券用户几乎囊括全球期货赛前10位置

2021-02-25

那些写公众号文章的，要真能赚钱还用干这个带你赚钱，如果他要靠写文章赚钱，你就当个娱乐新闻好了

2020-10-17

明年再见[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2020-10-06

想去卖长线期权，但是又要百分百保证金[捂脸]

2020-09-18

那个独山县不是花了400亿吗[开心] [开心]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-09-07

去和美国说才行啊，跟我们说有啥用

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-09-04

做空头真危险，不过回报还不错

2020-08-27

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@英为财情:【期权漫谈】什么是隐含波动率百分位表？

2020-08-22

cme的第一名很厉害，这个月估计追不上了

2020-08-21

最近行情真看不准，能空仓就空仓，不能空仓弄个对冲的组合吧

2020-08-06

预测一下，美股最迟3个月内会有一波持续2.3周共约10%的大跌，统计而已。原因不明

2020-08-04

1.美元和美股不是负相关的，只是在某些政治风险或者经济斗争的时候资金市场用美元作为避险，本身股市也会下跌造成的错觉2，美股或许和美债的关联程度更高一些，但是20到21年美联储基本保持0利率，所以美债的吸引力也下降，相关度也降低3，还是维持看法，宽松政策，美股中长期看涨

2020-07-31

美元该升了，股指还不调整吗，轻仓开点空单

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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下面我简单介绍一下这个指数： MSCI中国A50互联互通指数是港交所与国际知名指数公司MSCI联合推出的涉及A股的指数产品。该指数广泛覆盖了11个行业，通过抽取各个行业具有代表性的权重个股作为指数构成因子，来反映A股整体走势情况。 与富时中国A50指数比较 不同于富时中国A50指数代表的是中国内地市场总市值最大的50家公司的表现，MSCI中国A50互联互通指数则是平衡了11个行业板块，先从MSCI中国A股指数（母指数）的大盘股中分别选出来自11个行业中两家规模最大的公司，再根据指数权重从母指数中选择剩余的公司，直到总数达到50家。最后，再根据母指数的流通股市值权重，对所选公司股票进行加权及平衡行业权重分配。 根据截至7月30日的数据，目前指数中的板块权重分别是：金融（18.2%）、工业（17.45%）、消费必需品（15.89%）、IT（13.41%）、医疗保健（11.05%）、材料（9.28%）、可选消费（8.03%）、房地产（2%）、能源（1.65%）、通讯服务（1.21%）。前十大成分股分别为：宁德时代、贵州茅台、隆基股份、万华化学、招商银行、立讯精密、五粮液、比亚迪、京东方和中国中免。相比之下，MSCI的版本显然涵盖了更多反映中国未来发展动能的新经济公司，尤其是近年来后来居上市场热烈追捧的公司。而富时中国A50指数，金融股权重高达37.74%，近期受到地产行业不景气的影响，往往地产公司一有负面新闻就容易使得该股指出现剧烈波动。 由于指数编制的思路不同，造成富时A50与MSCI指数在A股走势阶段表现也会有差异。在A股处于整体强势阶段，各个行业公司股价表现积极，MSCI指数往往会走势略强于富时指数。而A股处于相对弱势时，大盘","listText":"2021年10月18日MSCI中国A50互联互通指数将正式上线交易，跟踪这一指数的期货合约也将在近期开通交易，对这个指数感兴趣的各位可以小期待一下。 下面我简单介绍一下这个指数： MSCI中国A50互联互通指数是港交所与国际知名指数公司MSCI联合推出的涉及A股的指数产品。该指数广泛覆盖了11个行业，通过抽取各个行业具有代表性的权重个股作为指数构成因子，来反映A股整体走势情况。 与富时中国A50指数比较 不同于富时中国A50指数代表的是中国内地市场总市值最大的50家公司的表现，MSCI中国A50互联互通指数则是平衡了11个行业板块，先从MSCI中国A股指数（母指数）的大盘股中分别选出来自11个行业中两家规模最大的公司，再根据指数权重从母指数中选择剩余的公司，直到总数达到50家。最后，再根据母指数的流通股市值权重，对所选公司股票进行加权及平衡行业权重分配。 根据截至7月30日的数据，目前指数中的板块权重分别是：金融（18.2%）、工业（17.45%）、消费必需品（15.89%）、IT（13.41%）、医疗保健（11.05%）、材料（9.28%）、可选消费（8.03%）、房地产（2%）、能源（1.65%）、通讯服务（1.21%）。前十大成分股分别为：宁德时代、贵州茅台、隆基股份、万华化学、招商银行、立讯精密、五粮液、比亚迪、京东方和中国中免。相比之下，MSCI的版本显然涵盖了更多反映中国未来发展动能的新经济公司，尤其是近年来后来居上市场热烈追捧的公司。而富时中国A50指数，金融股权重高达37.74%，近期受到地产行业不景气的影响，往往地产公司一有负面新闻就容易使得该股指出现剧烈波动。 由于指数编制的思路不同，造成富时A50与MSCI指数在A股走势阶段表现也会有差异。在A股处于整体强势阶段，各个行业公司股价表现积极，MSCI指数往往会走势略强于富时指数。而A股处于相对弱势时，大盘","text":"2021年10月18日MSCI中国A50互联互通指数将正式上线交易，跟踪这一指数的期货合约也将在近期开通交易，对这个指数感兴趣的各位可以小期待一下。 下面我简单介绍一下这个指数： MSCI中国A50互联互通指数是港交所与国际知名指数公司MSCI联合推出的涉及A股的指数产品。该指数广泛覆盖了11个行业，通过抽取各个行业具有代表性的权重个股作为指数构成因子，来反映A股整体走势情况。 与富时中国A50指数比较 不同于富时中国A50指数代表的是中国内地市场总市值最大的50家公司的表现，MSCI中国A50互联互通指数则是平衡了11个行业板块，先从MSCI中国A股指数（母指数）的大盘股中分别选出来自11个行业中两家规模最大的公司，再根据指数权重从母指数中选择剩余的公司，直到总数达到50家。最后，再根据母指数的流通股市值权重，对所选公司股票进行加权及平衡行业权重分配。 根据截至7月30日的数据，目前指数中的板块权重分别是：金融（18.2%）、工业（17.45%）、消费必需品（15.89%）、IT（13.41%）、医疗保健（11.05%）、材料（9.28%）、可选消费（8.03%）、房地产（2%）、能源（1.65%）、通讯服务（1.21%）。前十大成分股分别为：宁德时代、贵州茅台、隆基股份、万华化学、招商银行、立讯精密、五粮液、比亚迪、京东方和中国中免。相比之下，MSCI的版本显然涵盖了更多反映中国未来发展动能的新经济公司，尤其是近年来后来居上市场热烈追捧的公司。而富时中国A50指数，金融股权重高达37.74%，近期受到地产行业不景气的影响，往往地产公司一有负面新闻就容易使得该股指出现剧烈波动。 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，平仓好好睡觉","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e0c37afb585a89e71e85e0c33441649","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197128145","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":198203180,"gmtCreate":1620958758640,"gmtModify":1620958758640,"author":{"id":"3486064721650522","authorId":"3486064721650522","name":"蔡头","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486064721650522","idStr":"3486064721650522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"CPI真这么高又是一波大跌","listText":"CPI真这么高又是一波大跌","text":"CPI真这么高又是一波大跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198203180","repostId":"1148551338","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"content":"这预测是根据经济增长峰值来的吧，CPI冲击已经两轮了，即使有第三轮的冲击、时间间隔短，冲击波大于前两轮的概率小，第一轮是美国内，第二轮国内加供应链上游，同时打通了下游，CPI与零售已经很阔了，第三轮除非有大于印度疫情的事件，","text":"这预测是根据经济增长峰值来的吧，CPI冲击已经两轮了，即使有第三轮的冲击、时间间隔短，冲击波大于前两轮的概率小，第一轮是美国内，第二轮国内加供应链上游，同时打通了下游，CPI与零售已经很阔了，第三轮除非有大于印度疫情的事件，","html":"这预测是根据经济增长峰值来的吧，CPI冲击已经两轮了，即使有第三轮的冲击、时间间隔短，冲击波大于前两轮的概率小，第一轮是美国内，第二轮国内加供应链上游，同时打通了下游，CPI与零售已经很阔了，第三轮除非有大于印度疫情的事件，"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":103293119,"gmtCreate":1619784426031,"gmtModify":1619784426031,"author":{"id":"3486064721650522","authorId":"3486064721650522","name":"蔡头","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486064721650522","idStr":"3486064721650522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"今年争取拿个前五吧","listText":"今年争取拿个前五吧","text":"今年争取拿个前五吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103293119","repostId":"376396198","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":376396198,"gmtCreate":1619087060010,"gmtModify":1619151237963,"author":{"id":"3515046971821173","authorId":"3515046971821173","name":"炒股大赛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e862cecce5cc5eb9185192c5f2fcc60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3515046971821173","idStr":"3515046971821173"},"themes":[],"title":"号外！实盘赛战报：老虎证券用户几乎囊括全球期货赛前10位置","htmlText":"咱们老虎证券的用户真的是藏龙卧虎！ 我们前几周刚刚播报说老虎的用户占据了第8届全球衍生品大赛重量组+轻量组双料冠军的位置，两周不到的时间过去了，现在的战况出现了更大的变化！ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/341972719\" target=\"_blank\">回顾：第八届全球衍生品大赛火热进行中，老虎证券占据轻量组、重量组双料第一！</a> 现在的战况是，这届全球期货大赛轻量组前10的宝座几乎被我们老虎证券的用户全部囊括： 哈，这届的对手不行啊，估计很多轻量组老虎证券的参赛选手会发出这样的感叹，这场全球范围内招揽参赛选手的期货实盘大赛，起码在亚太范围内，老虎用户的战绩可以说是压倒性的，以至于轻量组盘面的盈利金额之争变成了老虎的内部对决 我们仔细看一下榜单，目前排名第一的轻量组冠军位置的人位老虎证券用户&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3577587973708044\">@voga</a> ，他目前的账户总权益为1万7千多美元，当日净盈利1万1千多美元， 第二名，祺崽子，当日总权益为3千多美元，但他的净盈利达到了1千6百多美元，占比超过了1半， 第三名，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3452663264109395\">@潘建海</a> ，当日总权益为4万5千9百多美元，净盈利为2万1千多美元，占比稍逊于第二名，祺崽子。 （大家注意，因为我们无法绝对保证客户昵称就是对应的是社区昵称，所以at到的人也不一定就是该参赛用户） 其实关于排名规则，我们每次大赛播报的时候都会说，排名所用的最终分数并不仅仅计算你的净利润和总权益的占比，还要看你的最大回撤是不是少，累计盈利会有多少等等吧。 这三位都在各项计分维度上表现的最为出色，恭","listText":"咱们老虎证券的用户真的是藏龙卧虎！ 我们前几周刚刚播报说老虎的用户占据了第8届全球衍生品大赛重量组+轻量组双料冠军的位置，两周不到的时间过去了，现在的战况出现了更大的变化！ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/341972719\" target=\"_blank\">回顾：第八届全球衍生品大赛火热进行中，老虎证券占据轻量组、重量组双料第一！</a> 现在的战况是，这届全球期货大赛轻量组前10的宝座几乎被我们老虎证券的用户全部囊括： 哈，这届的对手不行啊，估计很多轻量组老虎证券的参赛选手会发出这样的感叹，这场全球范围内招揽参赛选手的期货实盘大赛，起码在亚太范围内，老虎用户的战绩可以说是压倒性的，以至于轻量组盘面的盈利金额之争变成了老虎的内部对决 我们仔细看一下榜单，目前排名第一的轻量组冠军位置的人位老虎证券用户&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3577587973708044\">@voga</a> ，他目前的账户总权益为1万7千多美元，当日净盈利1万1千多美元， 第二名，祺崽子，当日总权益为3千多美元，但他的净盈利达到了1千6百多美元，占比超过了1半， 第三名，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3452663264109395\">@潘建海</a> ，当日总权益为4万5千9百多美元，净盈利为2万1千多美元，占比稍逊于第二名，祺崽子。 （大家注意，因为我们无法绝对保证客户昵称就是对应的是社区昵称，所以at到的人也不一定就是该参赛用户） 其实关于排名规则，我们每次大赛播报的时候都会说，排名所用的最终分数并不仅仅计算你的净利润和总权益的占比，还要看你的最大回撤是不是少，累计盈利会有多少等等吧。 这三位都在各项计分维度上表现的最为出色，恭","text":"咱们老虎证券的用户真的是藏龙卧虎！ 我们前几周刚刚播报说老虎的用户占据了第8届全球衍生品大赛重量组+轻量组双料冠军的位置，两周不到的时间过去了，现在的战况出现了更大的变化！ 回顾：第八届全球衍生品大赛火热进行中，老虎证券占据轻量组、重量组双料第一！ 现在的战况是，这届全球期货大赛轻量组前10的宝座几乎被我们老虎证券的用户全部囊括： 哈，这届的对手不行啊，估计很多轻量组老虎证券的参赛选手会发出这样的感叹，这场全球范围内招揽参赛选手的期货实盘大赛，起码在亚太范围内，老虎用户的战绩可以说是压倒性的，以至于轻量组盘面的盈利金额之争变成了老虎的内部对决 我们仔细看一下榜单，目前排名第一的轻量组冠军位置的人位老虎证券用户 @voga ，他目前的账户总权益为1万7千多美元，当日净盈利1万1千多美元， 第二名，祺崽子，当日总权益为3千多美元，但他的净盈利达到了1千6百多美元，占比超过了1半， 第三名，@潘建海 ，当日总权益为4万5千9百多美元，净盈利为2万1千多美元，占比稍逊于第二名，祺崽子。 （大家注意，因为我们无法绝对保证客户昵称就是对应的是社区昵称，所以at到的人也不一定就是该参赛用户） 其实关于排名规则，我们每次大赛播报的时候都会说，排名所用的最终分数并不仅仅计算你的净利润和总权益的占比，还要看你的最大回撤是不是少，累计盈利会有多少等等吧。 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[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/975990708","repostId":"1196873973","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2084,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":978734081,"gmtCreate":1599466048943,"gmtModify":1703818559668,"author":{"id":"3486064721650522","authorId":"3486064721650522","name":"蔡头","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486064721650522","idStr":"3486064721650522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"去和美国说才行啊，跟我们说有啥用","listText":"去和美国说才行啊，跟我们说有啥用","text":"去和美国说才行啊，跟我们说有啥用","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978734081","repostId":"1100571611","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":978856773,"gmtCreate":1599193890992,"gmtModify":1704221952388,"author":{"id":"3486064721650522","authorId":"3486064721650522","name":"蔡头","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486064721650522","idStr":"3486064721650522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"做空头真危险，不过回报还不错","listText":"做空头真危险，不过回报还不错","text":"做空头真危险，不过回报还不错","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2297cc75563a68958d548301dc1e7ac8","width":"1125","height":"2436"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1c16a06bd18ba03a2dcfa3be1a1c21","width":"1125","height":"2436"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50bebb7ba914ed1fed2e8018fd39d3f5","width":"1124","height":"1933"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978856773","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1976,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":973605067,"gmtCreate":1598524726059,"gmtModify":1704219284538,"author":{"id":"3486064721650522","authorId":"3486064721650522","name":"蔡头","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486064721650522","idStr":"3486064721650522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/973605067","repostId":"973863936","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":973863936,"gmtCreate":1598510930625,"gmtModify":1704219209480,"author":{"id":"3489725211341675","authorId":"3489725211341675","name":"英为财情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/90beb74040cb78811d8df6ccd44be346","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3489725211341675","idStr":"3489725211341675"},"themes":[],"title":"【期权漫谈】什么是隐含波动率百分位表？","htmlText":"期权交易的最困难部分大概是如何判断隐含波动率走向了。原因很简单，因为隐含波动率本身就是一个主观性的东西。什么时候应该买隐含波动率？也就是说买期权。什么时候应该卖出隐含波动率？也就是说卖出期权，收取保险费。这可能对于初学者来说是一个比较困难的抉择。下面给大家介绍一个简单易行的期权交易辅助决策工具叫做隐含波动率百分位表(IV Percentile)。表中所采用的隐含波动率是标的产品30天平值期权隐含波动率，就是在过去的一年中期权市场有多少天，30天平值期权是交易在某一个特定的隐含波动率水平之下。计算公式非常简单：特定隐含波动率在一年中的交易天数除以252天。用上面的公式，我们就得到以下芝加哥商品交易所黄金期权(OG)， 过去12年截止到今年5月19日的期权百分位表记录。简单解释一下表格：表格显示在过去的12年中，芝商所的黄金期权最高隐含波动率是60.34%。最低隐含波动率是7.48%。30天黄金平值期权在过去12年中90%的时间内交易在隐含波动率24.28%以下、10%的时间内交易在9.57 %以下、50%的时间内交易在15.05%以下。有了上面的统计数据，对于我们在现在的黄金市场中选择是买入还是卖出黄金期权就有了极大的帮助。根据下面这一张来自芝商所期货期权风险管理平台QuikStrike的黄金期权期限结构和期货升贴水关系图，我们可以看到现在30天黄金平值期权的隐含波动率是在22.40%以上。(图中红圈内)根据上面的黄金隐含波动率期货期权百分位表，在22.4%这个隐含波动率的水平上卖出黄金期权应该是概率非常大的正确决定。换句话说，在这个隐含波动率的水平上买入黄金的期权保险费太贵了，不值得。芝商所黄金期权(OG) 市场是世界上最大的黄金期权市场, 为投资者提供了最佳流通性。芝商所黄金期权市场可以分为两部分，第一就是我们所说的标准期权(OG)，第二就是我们所说的短期每周期权(OG1","listText":"期权交易的最困难部分大概是如何判断隐含波动率走向了。原因很简单，因为隐含波动率本身就是一个主观性的东西。什么时候应该买隐含波动率？也就是说买期权。什么时候应该卖出隐含波动率？也就是说卖出期权，收取保险费。这可能对于初学者来说是一个比较困难的抉择。下面给大家介绍一个简单易行的期权交易辅助决策工具叫做隐含波动率百分位表(IV Percentile)。表中所采用的隐含波动率是标的产品30天平值期权隐含波动率，就是在过去的一年中期权市场有多少天，30天平值期权是交易在某一个特定的隐含波动率水平之下。计算公式非常简单：特定隐含波动率在一年中的交易天数除以252天。用上面的公式，我们就得到以下芝加哥商品交易所黄金期权(OG)， 过去12年截止到今年5月19日的期权百分位表记录。简单解释一下表格：表格显示在过去的12年中，芝商所的黄金期权最高隐含波动率是60.34%。最低隐含波动率是7.48%。30天黄金平值期权在过去12年中90%的时间内交易在隐含波动率24.28%以下、10%的时间内交易在9.57 %以下、50%的时间内交易在15.05%以下。有了上面的统计数据，对于我们在现在的黄金市场中选择是买入还是卖出黄金期权就有了极大的帮助。根据下面这一张来自芝商所期货期权风险管理平台QuikStrike的黄金期权期限结构和期货升贴水关系图，我们可以看到现在30天黄金平值期权的隐含波动率是在22.40%以上。(图中红圈内)根据上面的黄金隐含波动率期货期权百分位表，在22.4%这个隐含波动率的水平上卖出黄金期权应该是概率非常大的正确决定。换句话说，在这个隐含波动率的水平上买入黄金的期权保险费太贵了，不值得。芝商所黄金期权(OG) 市场是世界上最大的黄金期权市场, 为投资者提供了最佳流通性。芝商所黄金期权市场可以分为两部分，第一就是我们所说的标准期权(OG)，第二就是我们所说的短期每周期权(OG1","text":"期权交易的最困难部分大概是如何判断隐含波动率走向了。原因很简单，因为隐含波动率本身就是一个主观性的东西。什么时候应该买隐含波动率？也就是说买期权。什么时候应该卖出隐含波动率？也就是说卖出期权，收取保险费。这可能对于初学者来说是一个比较困难的抉择。下面给大家介绍一个简单易行的期权交易辅助决策工具叫做隐含波动率百分位表(IV Percentile)。表中所采用的隐含波动率是标的产品30天平值期权隐含波动率，就是在过去的一年中期权市场有多少天，30天平值期权是交易在某一个特定的隐含波动率水平之下。计算公式非常简单：特定隐含波动率在一年中的交易天数除以252天。用上面的公式，我们就得到以下芝加哥商品交易所黄金期权(OG)， 过去12年截止到今年5月19日的期权百分位表记录。简单解释一下表格：表格显示在过去的12年中，芝商所的黄金期权最高隐含波动率是60.34%。最低隐含波动率是7.48%。30天黄金平值期权在过去12年中90%的时间内交易在隐含波动率24.28%以下、10%的时间内交易在9.57 %以下、50%的时间内交易在15.05%以下。有了上面的统计数据，对于我们在现在的黄金市场中选择是买入还是卖出黄金期权就有了极大的帮助。根据下面这一张来自芝商所期货期权风险管理平台QuikStrike的黄金期权期限结构和期货升贴水关系图，我们可以看到现在30天黄金平值期权的隐含波动率是在22.40%以上。(图中红圈内)根据上面的黄金隐含波动率期货期权百分位表，在22.4%这个隐含波动率的水平上卖出黄金期权应该是概率非常大的正确决定。换句话说，在这个隐含波动率的水平上买入黄金的期权保险费太贵了，不值得。芝商所黄金期权(OG) 市场是世界上最大的黄金期权市场, 为投资者提供了最佳流通性。芝商所黄金期权市场可以分为两部分，第一就是我们所说的标准期权(OG)，第二就是我们所说的短期每周期权(OG1","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fd1f52217989f0ae7776775bb8c40c","width":"500","height":"334"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/973863936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979829420,"gmtCreate":1598089583260,"gmtModify":1704217877566,"author":{"id":"3486064721650522","authorId":"3486064721650522","name":"蔡头","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486064721650522","idStr":"3486064721650522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"cme的第一名很厉害，这个月估计追不上了","listText":"cme的第一名很厉害，这个月估计追不上了","text":"cme的第一名很厉害，这个月估计追不上了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0d3a614bc7bb8d373751b063ef6308","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979829420","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979304843,"gmtCreate":1597995244882,"gmtModify":1704217541389,"author":{"id":"3486064721650522","authorId":"3486064721650522","name":"蔡头","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486064721650522","idStr":"3486064721650522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最近行情真看不准，能空仓就空仓，不能空仓弄个对冲的组合吧","listText":"最近行情真看不准，能空仓就空仓，不能空仓弄个对冲的组合吧","text":"最近行情真看不准，能空仓就空仓，不能空仓弄个对冲的组合吧","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/596ba2f04dd25e4832b2160161ed60a1","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979304843","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546699087274420","authorId":"3546699087274420","name":"曾经沧海01","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3546699087274420","idStr":"3546699087274420"},"content":"厉害啊! 我也是做空美股2年了。可是它一直涨,唉! 有机会交流一下2哦","text":"厉害啊! 我也是做空美股2年了。可是它一直涨,唉! 有机会交流一下2哦","html":"厉害啊! 我也是做空美股2年了。可是它一直涨,唉! 有机会交流一下2哦"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944075844,"gmtCreate":1596724965488,"gmtModify":1704213367982,"author":{"id":"3486064721650522","authorId":"3486064721650522","name":"蔡头","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486064721650522","idStr":"3486064721650522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"预测一下，美股最迟3个月内会有一波持续2.3周共约10%的大跌，统计而已。原因不明","listText":"预测一下，美股最迟3个月内会有一波持续2.3周共约10%的大跌，统计而已。原因不明","text":"预测一下，美股最迟3个月内会有一波持续2.3周共约10%的大跌，统计而已。原因不明","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944075844","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":945834996,"gmtCreate":1596513655915,"gmtModify":1704212480429,"author":{"id":"3486064721650522","authorId":"3486064721650522","name":"蔡头","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486064721650522","idStr":"3486064721650522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1.美元和美股不是负相关的，只是在某些政治风险或者经济斗争的时候资金市场用美元作为避险，本身股市也会下跌造成的错觉2，美股或许和美债的关联程度更高一些，但是20到21年美联储基本保持0利率，所以美债的吸引力也下降，相关度也降低3，还是维持看法，宽松政策，美股中长期看涨","listText":"1.美元和美股不是负相关的，只是在某些政治风险或者经济斗争的时候资金市场用美元作为避险，本身股市也会下跌造成的错觉2，美股或许和美债的关联程度更高一些，但是20到21年美联储基本保持0利率，所以美债的吸引力也下降，相关度也降低3，还是维持看法，宽松政策，美股中长期看涨","text":"1.美元和美股不是负相关的，只是在某些政治风险或者经济斗争的时候资金市场用美元作为避险，本身股市也会下跌造成的错觉2，美股或许和美债的关联程度更高一些，但是20到21年美联储基本保持0利率，所以美债的吸引力也下降，相关度也降低3，还是维持看法，宽松政策，美股中长期看涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/945834996","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":942517624,"gmtCreate":1596162570568,"gmtModify":1704211564952,"author":{"id":"3486064721650522","authorId":"3486064721650522","name":"蔡头","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486064721650522","idStr":"3486064721650522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美元该升了，股指还不调整吗，轻仓开点空单","listText":"美元该升了，股指还不调整吗，轻仓开点空单","text":"美元该升了，股指还不调整吗，轻仓开点空单","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/302581bc9fe071e57681cddd96ef96e0","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/942517624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":932878110,"gmtCreate":1572860014230,"gmtModify":1704724971350,"author":{"id":"3486064721650522","authorId":"3486064721650522","name":"蔡头","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486064721650522","authorIdStr":"3486064721650522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"记录一下自己的操作，就随便看看，有没专做指数的朋友交流一下.纯粹技术操作，基本不参考消息，不赌博，按操作系统做去年6到11月亏损，11到19年5月亏损平衡，6月开始盈利。今天开冬令时，买入4分一仓位，完成建仓2天止盈","listText":"记录一下自己的操作，就随便看看，有没专做指数的朋友交流一下.纯粹技术操作，基本不参考消息，不赌博，按操作系统做去年6到11月亏损，11到19年5月亏损平衡，6月开始盈利。今天开冬令时，买入4分一仓位，完成建仓2天止盈","text":"记录一下自己的操作，就随便看看，有没专做指数的朋友交流一下.纯粹技术操作，基本不参考消息，不赌博，按操作系统做去年6到11月亏损，11到19年5月亏损平衡，6月开始盈利。今天开冬令时，买入4分一仓位，完成建仓2天止盈","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2184974b1ba7efb17800148c92b7d5e","width":"750","height":"1334"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/932878110","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3473158923837916","authorId":"3473158923837916","name":"从零到负一","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72b9c3f8b48d7ef8b38911e8cb161f01","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3473158923837916","authorIdStr":"3473158923837916"},"content":"有了交易系统就一定要执行，这个阶段坚持交易系统和心态管理比进一步优化更有效！一个韭菜的小建议[得意]","text":"有了交易系统就一定要执行，这个阶段坚持交易系统和心态管理比进一步优化更有效！一个韭菜的小建议[得意]","html":"有了交易系统就一定要执行，这个阶段坚持交易系统和心态管理比进一步优化更有效！一个韭菜的小建议[得意]"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":361769157,"gmtCreate":1614262886579,"gmtModify":1614262886579,"author":{"id":"3486064721650522","authorId":"3486064721650522","name":"蔡头","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486064721650522","authorIdStr":"3486064721650522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"那些写公众号文章的，要真能赚钱还用干这个带你赚钱，如果他要靠写文章赚钱，你就当个娱乐新闻好了","listText":"那些写公众号文章的，要真能赚钱还用干这个带你赚钱，如果他要靠写文章赚钱，你就当个娱乐新闻好了","text":"那些写公众号文章的，要真能赚钱还用干这个带你赚钱，如果他要靠写文章赚钱，你就当个娱乐新闻好了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49bd3720a0bb64f2d3e9b21d821b79b4","width":"1575","height":"2100"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361769157","isVote":1,"tweetTy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