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不会飞的猪
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不会飞的猪
2021-08-12
控制土地出让金,为开发商创造更多利润,不限制售价。这个政策妥妥为富人保驾护航
抱歉,原内容已删除
不会飞的猪
2021-08-04
$New Oriental Education & Technology(EDU)$
老俞压力山大,都做不成反应了,哪怕先裁一拨人也好
不会飞的猪
2021-07-30
$Cassava Sciences Inc(SAVA)$
没必要笑死[握手] 我们就事实探讨而已,你先去看他文中写什么,他甚至说没有一家机构持有SAVA股票!就公开数据可以知道SAVA机构持股32%,共265家机构,最大是Blackrock贝莱德,其次是Invesco景顺这两家国内都知道的头牌机构
不会飞的猪
2021-07-30
$Cassava Sciences Inc(SAVA)$
Adam 2014年因恶意操纵股市被起诉过
不会飞的猪
2021-07-24
$Cassava Sciences Inc(SAVA)$
最后半小时给空头回补了
不会飞的猪
2021-07-10
$Cassava Sciences Inc(SAVA)$
洗洗更健康
不会飞的猪
2021-07-08
$KE Holdings Inc.(BEKE)$
破发是大概率的,估计和滴滴一样,会被人举报
不会飞的猪
2021-07-05
$Kanzhun Limited(BZ)$
新股可以做空吗?
不会飞的猪
2021-07-05
$Autohome(ATHM)$
不妙啊,CFO请辞,出问题了?
不会飞的猪
2021-07-02
$Autohome(ATHM)$
谁知道为啥一直跌吗
不会飞的猪
2021-07-01
$Venus Concept Inc.(VERO)$
没人吗,疫情重灾股,疫情前9元,过去一年增发股票,改善债务结构,营收预期提升,CEO,CFO最近买入,就这毛票机构持股59%,严重看涨[开心]
不会飞的猪
2021-07-01
好文!滴滴的出路在于收购几家送餐快递和美团死磕,天天讲故事蒙风投也就罢了,别割小韭菜
换帽子上市,滴滴的估值能撑多久? | 甲子光年
不会飞的猪
2021-07-01
$Vertex(VTNR)$
[龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] 12.5加仓
不会飞的猪
2021-06-30
$Vertex(VTNR)$
前期洗盘真它妈让人纠结,还好没卖
不会飞的猪
2021-06-30
$Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.(YMM)$
吹捧的软文层出不穷,股价断崖下跌,风投一直在抛,到底发生什么事了
不会飞的猪
2021-06-24
$Vertex(VTNR)$
没人啊,都睡觉去了吗?
不会飞的猪
2021-06-04
$KE Holdings Inc.(BEKE)$
最近没动静啊,是不是老左走了,底下各路小鬼开始忙着争权夺利相爱相杀[捂脸] 没有低只有更低,破发是大概率了
不会飞的猪
2021-06-04
BIOGEN星期一被FDA批准的话SAVA至少涨15%,被拒的话至少跌10%,要不要赌,要不要持股过周一是个难题?
不会飞的猪
2021-06-04
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
特斯拉先发优势将不复存在。马斯克的傲慢和偏执成就了它也将拖累它。
不会飞的猪
2021-06-04
$UiPath(PATH)$
真正的高成长股!但太贵了,估值太高了,下不了手[捂脸]
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">$Autohome(ATHM)$</a>谁知道为啥一直跌吗","text":"$Autohome(ATHM)$谁知道为啥一直跌吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156480360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":158273311,"gmtCreate":1625153050333,"gmtModify":1625153050333,"author":{"id":"3482595947136213","authorId":"3482595947136213","name":"不会飞的猪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ad190f0fd617509ad800a89f700229","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3482595947136213","authorIdStr":"3482595947136213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VERO\">$Venus Concept Inc.(VERO)$</a>没人吗,疫情重灾股,疫情前9元,过去一年增发股票,改善债务结构,营收预期提升,CEO,CFO最近买入,就这毛票机构持股59%,严重看涨[开心] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VERO\">$Venus Concept Inc.(VERO)$</a>没人吗,疫情重灾股,疫情前9元,过去一年增发股票,改善债务结构,营收预期提升,CEO,CFO最近买入,就这毛票机构持股59%,严重看涨[开心] ","text":"$Venus Concept Inc.(VERO)$没人吗,疫情重灾股,疫情前9元,过去一年增发股票,改善债务结构,营收预期提升,CEO,CFO最近买入,就这毛票机构持股59%,严重看涨[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158273311","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":158818058,"gmtCreate":1625143250774,"gmtModify":1625143250774,"author":{"id":"3482595947136213","authorId":"3482595947136213","name":"不会飞的猪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ad190f0fd617509ad800a89f700229","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3482595947136213","authorIdStr":"3482595947136213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好文!滴滴的出路在于收购几家送餐快递和美团死磕,天天讲故事蒙风投也就罢了,别割小韭菜","listText":"好文!滴滴的出路在于收购几家送餐快递和美团死磕,天天讲故事蒙风投也就罢了,别割小韭菜","text":"好文!滴滴的出路在于收购几家送餐快递和美团死磕,天天讲故事蒙风投也就罢了,别割小韭菜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158818058","repostId":"2148823372","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2148823372","pubTimestamp":1625137966,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2148823372?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 19:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"换帽子上市,滴滴的估值能撑多久? | 甲子光年","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148823372","media":"和讯网","summary":"滴滴最终发行了3.17亿股ADS,比原定2.88亿股的发行规模扩大了10%。上市,对一家公司来说是值得宣传的节点。但滴滴既没有对外进行媒体发布会,也没有举行上市敲钟仪式。2020年,橙心优选上线,滴滴又加入了社区电商的混战。此外,滴滴从没走出过监管的关注。更大的战役发生在2018年。在自动驾驶的浪潮下,滴滴找到了一个在今天更高估值的“新帽子”。","content":"<html><body><p>原标题:换帽子上市,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>的估值能撑多久? | 甲子光年 来源:和讯网</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202171/85/w1080h605/20210701/e7c3-krwipas3301731.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>别管是多好听的故事,讲了太久就不迷人了。</p><p>作者 | 高雅</p><p>制图 | 易思琳</p><p>编辑 | 杨杨</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202171/95/w768h127/20210701/afec-krwipas3301730.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>昨晚,滴滴成功上市了。这是今年互联网最受关注的 IPO 之一, 截至目前,44亿美元的募资额是今年中国互联网公司在美募资的最高纪录,此前在美上市的中国公司里,募资规模大于这个数字的,只有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>。</p><p>滴滴最终发行了3.17亿股ADS,比原定2.88亿股的发行规模扩大了10%。滴滴招股价为14美元/ADS,昨晚以16.65美元/ADS高开,开盘涨幅超过了20%,市值突破800亿美元。不过对看好滴滴的人来说,这个价位还是被低估了,去年在私下交易渠道里,滴滴估值就已经超过了千亿。</p><p>上市,对一家公司来说是值得宣传的节点。但滴滴既没有对外进行媒体发布会,也没有举行上市敲钟仪式。与内部的安静产生鲜明对比的,是滴滴赚足了外界的眼球。递交招股书之后,就有分析师猜测其估值可能会超过700亿美元,最终定价在13~14美元/ADS时,不少人认为定低了,因为以最高价算,滴滴市值为670亿美元,而定价发布当天,Uber的市值也有951亿美元。</p><p><font>高开因此也在意料之中。</font>上市前就有报道称,多家投资者意向认购超12.5亿美元,认购数约占本次所发行ADS的31.2%。</p><p>但高开之后则大幅下跌,滴滴收盘于14.2美元/ADS,相较发行价上涨1.43%。</p><p><font>资本市场对滴滴的看法分为两极,</font>令人期待的一面,滴滴已经是全球最大的出行平台,渗透进了“行”的方方面面,从“打车”开始,延伸到了“出行”,更有自动驾驶、共享出行、社区团购等为重新定义滴滴的估值添砖加瓦。</p><p>而不被看好的原因,则是华尔街已经听腻了长跑故事,一位投资人向「甲子光年」表示,“市场已经不买账了,对于只讲故事、长久不能盈利的公司。”网约车的盈利问题、监管问题、反垄断问题也在为衡量滴滴重新设定度量标准。</p><p>这一次,「甲子光年」拆解了滴滴的招股书,得出以下几个观点:</p><p>自动驾驶的新帽子抬高了滴滴的估值;</p><p>在中国出行市场上,滴滴现阶段的挑战来自B端市场;</p><p>网约车的亏损源,主要是海外市场的开拓;</p><p>平台流量和网约车的真实道路数据是滴滴做自动驾驶的先天优势;</p><p>滴滴与正在上市的哈啰、嘀嗒相比,各业务占比、体量和发展方向都不同;</p><p>软银退出滴滴的原因,可能是今天资方对不赚钱的公司越发缺乏耐心。</p><p><font>1.</font><font>滴滴的新帽子</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202171/148/w939h9/20210701/3b00-krwipas3301765.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>滴滴在招股书中讲了一个颇具情怀的好故事。它从2012年北京雪夜里打不到车的程维(滴滴出行CEO)开始叙述,勾勒了一个想要让人们更容易打到车、早点回到家的创业初心。</p><p>时至今日,滴滴已经成长了9年,从最初的“嘀嘀打车”到今天的“滴滴出行”,滴滴已经成为了全球最大的出行科技平台【1】,业务也从最初的出租车预约服务逐渐扩张到今天的共享单车、拼车、顺风车、自动驾驶、货运业务等,还包括社区电商橙心优选。</p><p>招股书中将滴滴的业务分为了4个核心战略板块,分别是共享出行平台、车服网络、电动车以及自动驾驶。但实际上滴滴还要更大一些,比如在招股书中没提到的橙心优选,在上市之前就被滴滴分拆了出来,独立发展、自负盈亏。</p><p><font>在成长的9年里,滴滴的战争从未停歇过,主要围绕市场和监管。</font></p><p>首先是烧钱换市场。2015年滴滴收购快的,此前双方之间的烧钱大战烧掉了二三十亿元;2016年,为争夺更大的市场,滴滴收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">优步</a>中国,老大吃下老二;2018年起,中国市场已经不再能满足滴滴的胃口,滴滴将和优步的战场扩张到了巴西、墨西哥、印度和南非等地区。同年,滴滴进军了共享单车市场,一场资本博弈开始上演。2020年,橙心优选上线,滴滴又加入了社区电商的混战。</p><p>此外,滴滴从没走出过监管的关注。作为“互联网+”的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300005\">探路者</a>,包括网约车的合法性、橙心优选的价格倾销、反垄断被约谈等等,滴滴都是“当头炮”。</p><p>更大的战役发生在2018年。滴滴在招股书中写道:2018年对我们来说是“至暗时刻”,两起安全事故的发生让我们认识到自己的平台不一样,从那以后,我们把重点从增长转到了消费者和司机的安全与福利上。此后,参与社区反馈、加强司机背景调查、安装安全设备等,成了滴滴的责任。</p><p><font>而滴滴还可能被重新定义。</font>滴滴在招股书中将着重点放在未来,“基于可再生能源和自动驾驶增强的共享移动网络的新移动范式是未来。”按需共享的出行网络、汽车解决方案、电动化出行和自动驾驶是滴滴认定未来出行的必然趋势和发力方向。</p><p>在自动驾驶的浪潮下,滴滴找到了一个在今天更高估值的“新帽子”。</p><p><font>2.</font><font>B端的新战争</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202171/148/w939h9/20210701/3b00-krwipas3301764.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>如果谁有能力去做智能出行,那一定有滴滴的一票。合并快的、收购优步中国之后,滴滴出行在中国网约车市场的占有率超过了90%,而且长期处于绝对垄断地位。</p><p>然而<font>网约车仍是一片红海</font>。根据交通部的最新数据,网约车平台注册数达210余家企业。「甲子光年」了解到,这些企业身后一般都有大公司支撑,多数为车企或互联网平台,比如美团打车、高德打车、T3出行等。一位共享出行的投资人告诉「甲子光年」,这个市场的准入门槛较低,每个城市都有自己的网络效应,“进入需要有资金支持,而做好需要有自己的流量。”大企业布局网约车更在于转型需求,获得汽车服务和自动驾驶的道路大数据。</p><p>此外,<font>网约车的市场空间仍有待开发</font>。另一家处于IPO进程中的出行平台“嘀嗒”在招股书中援引了弗若斯特沙利文的数据,指出传统出租车扬招的占出行市场的份额为96.3%,仍占行业主导地位。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202171/301/w1080h821/20210701/d879-krwipas3301833.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>滴滴也并非毫无压力,竞争对手的新机会存在于B端。</font>一位出行服务SaaS企业的CEO告诉「甲子光年」,滴滴已经牢牢握住了C端流量优势,基本无法攻破。而他们的机会在于,当C端单一的流量满足不了出行用户的需求时,只有通过B端聚合才能达到目的。</p><p>从去年开始,滴滴企业级不再只是关注用车服务,而是把服务扩展到了差旅和费控上,曾和滴滴是合作伙伴关系的服务商们,变为了滴滴的竞争对手,导致“在企业服务上,滴滴没有伙伴,只有竞争对手。”</p><p>此外,上述人士向「甲子光年」透露,“滴滴的企业级分销是比较强势的,他们不会留比较高的利润比例给到合作伙伴,但其他B端服务商们会这么做。”</p><p><font>3.</font><font>有流量就有钱袋子</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202171/148/w939h9/20210701/3b00-krwipas3301765.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>总体来看,滴滴仍是亏损的。</font>招股书显示,2018 年、2019 年和2020年,滴滴净亏损分别为人民币150 亿元、人民币97亿元和人民币106亿元,实现扭亏为盈要到2021年第一季度,主要依靠投资收益的大幅增加,才有了5.483亿元的利润。<font>但至少在网约车市场上,滴滴在9年抗战中已经摸到了互联网赚钱的法则。</font></p><p>2020年,中国出行业务即网约车为滴滴贡献了最多营收,占比达94.3%。盈利模式主要是抽佣,按照<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">申万宏源</a>(000166,股吧)研究所此前的分析,滴滴抽佣比例大约为20%。落到数据上看,2020年,中国网约车业务息税摊销前利润率仅为3.1%。</p><p>单纯从这个角度看,网约车业务既烧钱又存在安全和法制的制肘,还不容易盈利,是个辛苦活。但事实上,<font>在互联网模式里,有流量的企业就等于拥有了钱袋子。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202171/226/w1080h746/20210701/a1dc-krwipas3301887.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>一方面,用大数据杀熟、把车辆分级、在用车高峰期涨价、青桔涨价等方式,都是互联网的变现方式;另一方面,流量库也便于新平台的导流。</p><p>2020年底,人民日报发文:“别只惦记着几捆白菜、几斤水果的流量,科技创新的星辰大海、未来的无限可能性,其实更令人心潮澎湃”。正是指向了橙心优选、叮咚买菜等社区团购。彼时,滴滴出行平台月活跃用户突破4亿,滴滴CEO程维也正式宣布将从出行领域进入社区电商市场。</p><p><font>然而,即使在网约车业务上,滴滴也远没有走出烧钱阶段,竞争者仍是老对手Uber。</font>2018~2020年,滴滴在中国市场的营收分别为1332.07亿元(约208.2亿美元)、1479.4亿元(约231.23亿美元)和1336.45亿元(约208.89亿美元),同期Uber则为92.88亿美元、107.07亿美元和60.89亿美元。滴滴已经拉开了和Uber的差距。</p><p>但是,滴滴自2018年起就开始出海了。滴滴在这部分还处于探索的初级阶段,而较早开始国际化的Uber已经覆盖了80多个国家的10,000个城区。据招股书,目前滴滴已经在海外14个国家上线,选定了墨西哥、巴西、印度和南非等国家,主要提供的业务包括出行和外卖。</p><p>2020年,滴滴的国际业务占总营收的比例不到2%,2018年的比例是0.3%。细化到订单量上,2018年为2.83亿单,2020年则为13.48亿单。根据招股书,滴滴计划将约30%的募资用于扩大中国以外国际市场的业务。</p><p><font>4.</font><font>自动驾驶的滴滴优势</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202171/148/w939h9/20210701/3b00-krwipas3301765.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>除了出海,滴滴亏损的更大原因在于对自动驾驶、共享出行的投入。</p><p><font>共享出行、自动驾驶在今天仍然被认为是很大的市场。</font><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HELO\">哈啰出行</a>的早期投资人李志超告诉「甲子光年」,当下出行智能化、共享化的根本原因是司机资源和出行运力的不足,尽管共享出行、自动驾驶已探索近10年,但在今天仍有很大的空间。</p><p>根据市场咨询机构CIC(China Insights Consultancy)对海内外共享出行市场的分析,中国市场2020年共享出行支出占消费者总出行支出的4.1%,预计到2040年这一比例将上升到35.9%;在国际市场上,共享出行和电动汽车的市场渗透率预计将从2020年的2%和1%分别增加到2040年的23.6%和29.3%。</p><p>滴滴在招股书中也这么说:随着城市人口越来越密集,方便、高效且负担得起的出行需求越来越难以满足,许多城市对不断增长的私家车拥有量所需的道路和停车基础设施无法提供支持。与此同时,消费升级和年轻一代不断变化的偏好正在将需求转向共享出行。</p><p>2016年起,滴滴开始布局自动驾驶,相较于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、AutoX、小马智行等玩家,滴滴自动驾驶起步较晚。<font>但是做出行,滴滴先天就有优势:其一是大数据的可获得性,其二是平台流量优势有助于加速商业化落地。</font></p><p>一方面在网约车上的运营经验和真实道路数据,可以帮助滴滴对车内安全数据、车外行车数据进行同步收集,覆盖到目前大部分的真实路测场景中,进一步帮助自动驾驶的算法快速迭代。另一方面,滴滴的平台优势也有助于Robotaxi的推动,以其流量优势,滴滴已经在平台的布局上先行了一步,只要技术达标,商业化落地的速度将大大提升。</p><p>关于技术上的进展,滴滴自动驾驶CMO孟醒曾向「甲子光年」分享过其在自动驾驶降本增效上的成绩:其自动驾驶硬件平台滴滴双子星,在保持和上代价格一致的情况下,传感器能力增加了接近4倍,清晰度、分辨率、算力增加了1.5倍。</p><p><font>5.</font><font>抢得“共享出行第一股”</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202171/148/w939h9/20210701/3b00-krwipas3301765.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>除滴滴外,出行平台嘀嗒和哈啰也在今年4月传出上市消息。</p><p>一名分析师向「甲子光年」解释说,年初说Grab要在美股跑起来了,在美股投资人眼里,Grab和滴滴一样,都是亚太地区的Uber。“如果它成功上市的话,那国内的这波故事就性感不起来了。”</p><p>Grab是东南亚最大的网约车和餐饮配送企业。今年4月13日,Grab宣布将在未来几个月通过SPAC的方式实现在美国纽交所上市。相比于能够同时提供出行、金融、外卖服务的Grab,国内的共享出行概念股在主营业务方面都略显单薄。这很可能是滴滴们集体加快资本进程的原因。</p><p>争夺“共享出行第一股”,滴滴来得最晚,但仅20天就结束战斗。事实上,这三家企业的业务虽然有类似之处,却各有侧重,上市的具体原因也各有不同。</p><p><font>首先,出发点不同。</font>哈啰起于共享单车,滴滴始于出租车预约,而来的更晚的嘀嗒则直接切入了顺风车这个细分市场,在滴滴顺风车遇到困难时仍过得顺风顺水。也因此,三者分别成为了中国市场上共享单车、网约车和顺风车占有率的第一名。</p><p>三者都有网约车和顺风车业务,都想覆盖到出行领域的方方面面。但技术的出发点不同,哈啰工作人员向「甲子光年」解释,哈啰做“大脑”【2】最开始解决的是海量物联终端(共享车辆、共享电池、电柜)的运营,后来再延伸到四轮业务的司乘匹配场景。而滴滴最开始做大脑是解决车主和乘客之间的司乘匹配问题。</p><p>嘀嗒成立得最晚,业务规模也更小一些,没有做共享单车的业务,也没有介入烧钱大战。2018~2020年,嘀嗒净亏损分别为16.77亿、7.56亿、21.94亿元。</p><p>在嘀嗒之后提交招股书的是哈啰,也选择了在美股上市,但直到今天仍没有确切的上市时间。据市场相关人士分析,没有出海业务的中概股们,美股投资人并不熟悉,路演结果不好可能是上市时间长的原因。但是,哈啰早已冲出了共享单车的业务,在招股书中哈啰强调自己是“本地生活服务提供商”。</p><p>不过,哈啰的财务略显窘迫。业务范围逐步扩大的同时,成本居高不下,收入也只能缓慢爬坡。哈啰三年亏损了48个亿,两轮车占全部亏损的九成。虽然亏损在逐年缩窄,但哈啰目前“长战线、新业务”的战略模式下,二轮车净利转正无望,新业务又急待大量现金投入。</p><p>滴滴则明显不同。截止2021年3月31日,滴滴账面持有234.68亿元(35.82亿美元)现金及现金等价物,还有239.66亿元(36.58亿美元)短期投资,资金不是滴滴IPO的最重要原因。但是,截至今天滴滴已经融资21轮,已有上百家投资机构(和个人)站在滴滴身后,包括软银、Uber、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、阿里巴巴等。</p><p><font>投资人已经等了太久了。</font>软银是滴滴最大股东,上市前持有滴滴21.5%的股票。招股书显示,软银委派的董事会成员松井健太郎(Kentaro Matsui)和他背后的软银将在招股书生效后辞任滴滴董事,除了软银,博裕资本董事总经理陈峙屹(Zhiyi Chen)也将同时退出董事会。</p><p>还有很多仗要打。滴滴还面临着诸多的难题,比如反垄断监管的加强可能对滴滴的发展造成影响、网约车业务不仅增长缓慢,还面临着监管部门降低抽薪的要求......给投资人松松绑,拿到二级市场的安全卡,站上纳斯达克的滴滴以新的身份,踏上了新的征程。</p><p>【1】滴滴在招股书中引用了CIC的数据,显示滴滴是全球最大的出行平台。</p><p>【2】哈啰大脑是哈啰出行自主研发的一套行业领先的智慧系统,最早应用于海量互联的哈啰单车智慧运营。</p><p>END.</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider20210701/160/w1024h1536/20210701/255a-krwipas3302102.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><div></div><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202171/434/w1080h154/20210701/593e-krwipas3302050.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>本文首发于微信公众号:甲子光年。文章内容属作者个人观点,不代表和讯网立场。投资者据此操作,风险请自担。</p><p>(责任编辑:李显杰 )</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n换帽子上市,滴滴的估值能撑多久? | 甲子光年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-01 19:12 北京时间 <a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-07-01/doc-ikqcfnca4410717.shtml><strong>和讯网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题:换帽子上市,滴滴的估值能撑多久? | 甲子光年 来源:和讯网别管是多好听的故事,讲了太久就不迷人了。作者 | 高雅制图 | 易思琳编辑 | 杨杨昨晚,滴滴成功上市了。这是今年互联网最受关注的 IPO 之一, 截至目前,44亿美元的募资额是今年中国互联网公司在美募资的最高纪录,此前在美上市的中国公司里,募资规模大于这个数字的,只有阿里巴巴。滴滴最终发行了3.17亿股ADS,比原定2.88亿股...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-07-01/doc-ikqcfnca4410717.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-07-01/doc-ikqcfnca4410717.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148823372","content_text":"原标题:换帽子上市,滴滴的估值能撑多久? | 甲子光年 来源:和讯网别管是多好听的故事,讲了太久就不迷人了。作者 | 高雅制图 | 易思琳编辑 | 杨杨昨晚,滴滴成功上市了。这是今年互联网最受关注的 IPO 之一, 截至目前,44亿美元的募资额是今年中国互联网公司在美募资的最高纪录,此前在美上市的中国公司里,募资规模大于这个数字的,只有阿里巴巴。滴滴最终发行了3.17亿股ADS,比原定2.88亿股的发行规模扩大了10%。滴滴招股价为14美元/ADS,昨晚以16.65美元/ADS高开,开盘涨幅超过了20%,市值突破800亿美元。不过对看好滴滴的人来说,这个价位还是被低估了,去年在私下交易渠道里,滴滴估值就已经超过了千亿。上市,对一家公司来说是值得宣传的节点。但滴滴既没有对外进行媒体发布会,也没有举行上市敲钟仪式。与内部的安静产生鲜明对比的,是滴滴赚足了外界的眼球。递交招股书之后,就有分析师猜测其估值可能会超过700亿美元,最终定价在13~14美元/ADS时,不少人认为定低了,因为以最高价算,滴滴市值为670亿美元,而定价发布当天,Uber的市值也有951亿美元。高开因此也在意料之中。上市前就有报道称,多家投资者意向认购超12.5亿美元,认购数约占本次所发行ADS的31.2%。但高开之后则大幅下跌,滴滴收盘于14.2美元/ADS,相较发行价上涨1.43%。资本市场对滴滴的看法分为两极,令人期待的一面,滴滴已经是全球最大的出行平台,渗透进了“行”的方方面面,从“打车”开始,延伸到了“出行”,更有自动驾驶、共享出行、社区团购等为重新定义滴滴的估值添砖加瓦。而不被看好的原因,则是华尔街已经听腻了长跑故事,一位投资人向「甲子光年」表示,“市场已经不买账了,对于只讲故事、长久不能盈利的公司。”网约车的盈利问题、监管问题、反垄断问题也在为衡量滴滴重新设定度量标准。这一次,「甲子光年」拆解了滴滴的招股书,得出以下几个观点:自动驾驶的新帽子抬高了滴滴的估值;在中国出行市场上,滴滴现阶段的挑战来自B端市场;网约车的亏损源,主要是海外市场的开拓;平台流量和网约车的真实道路数据是滴滴做自动驾驶的先天优势;滴滴与正在上市的哈啰、嘀嗒相比,各业务占比、体量和发展方向都不同;软银退出滴滴的原因,可能是今天资方对不赚钱的公司越发缺乏耐心。1.滴滴的新帽子滴滴在招股书中讲了一个颇具情怀的好故事。它从2012年北京雪夜里打不到车的程维(滴滴出行CEO)开始叙述,勾勒了一个想要让人们更容易打到车、早点回到家的创业初心。时至今日,滴滴已经成长了9年,从最初的“嘀嘀打车”到今天的“滴滴出行”,滴滴已经成为了全球最大的出行科技平台【1】,业务也从最初的出租车预约服务逐渐扩张到今天的共享单车、拼车、顺风车、自动驾驶、货运业务等,还包括社区电商橙心优选。招股书中将滴滴的业务分为了4个核心战略板块,分别是共享出行平台、车服网络、电动车以及自动驾驶。但实际上滴滴还要更大一些,比如在招股书中没提到的橙心优选,在上市之前就被滴滴分拆了出来,独立发展、自负盈亏。在成长的9年里,滴滴的战争从未停歇过,主要围绕市场和监管。首先是烧钱换市场。2015年滴滴收购快的,此前双方之间的烧钱大战烧掉了二三十亿元;2016年,为争夺更大的市场,滴滴收购优步中国,老大吃下老二;2018年起,中国市场已经不再能满足滴滴的胃口,滴滴将和优步的战场扩张到了巴西、墨西哥、印度和南非等地区。同年,滴滴进军了共享单车市场,一场资本博弈开始上演。2020年,橙心优选上线,滴滴又加入了社区电商的混战。此外,滴滴从没走出过监管的关注。作为“互联网+”的探路者,包括网约车的合法性、橙心优选的价格倾销、反垄断被约谈等等,滴滴都是“当头炮”。更大的战役发生在2018年。滴滴在招股书中写道:2018年对我们来说是“至暗时刻”,两起安全事故的发生让我们认识到自己的平台不一样,从那以后,我们把重点从增长转到了消费者和司机的安全与福利上。此后,参与社区反馈、加强司机背景调查、安装安全设备等,成了滴滴的责任。而滴滴还可能被重新定义。滴滴在招股书中将着重点放在未来,“基于可再生能源和自动驾驶增强的共享移动网络的新移动范式是未来。”按需共享的出行网络、汽车解决方案、电动化出行和自动驾驶是滴滴认定未来出行的必然趋势和发力方向。在自动驾驶的浪潮下,滴滴找到了一个在今天更高估值的“新帽子”。2.B端的新战争如果谁有能力去做智能出行,那一定有滴滴的一票。合并快的、收购优步中国之后,滴滴出行在中国网约车市场的占有率超过了90%,而且长期处于绝对垄断地位。然而网约车仍是一片红海。根据交通部的最新数据,网约车平台注册数达210余家企业。「甲子光年」了解到,这些企业身后一般都有大公司支撑,多数为车企或互联网平台,比如美团打车、高德打车、T3出行等。一位共享出行的投资人告诉「甲子光年」,这个市场的准入门槛较低,每个城市都有自己的网络效应,“进入需要有资金支持,而做好需要有自己的流量。”大企业布局网约车更在于转型需求,获得汽车服务和自动驾驶的道路大数据。此外,网约车的市场空间仍有待开发。另一家处于IPO进程中的出行平台“嘀嗒”在招股书中援引了弗若斯特沙利文的数据,指出传统出租车扬招的占出行市场的份额为96.3%,仍占行业主导地位。滴滴也并非毫无压力,竞争对手的新机会存在于B端。一位出行服务SaaS企业的CEO告诉「甲子光年」,滴滴已经牢牢握住了C端流量优势,基本无法攻破。而他们的机会在于,当C端单一的流量满足不了出行用户的需求时,只有通过B端聚合才能达到目的。从去年开始,滴滴企业级不再只是关注用车服务,而是把服务扩展到了差旅和费控上,曾和滴滴是合作伙伴关系的服务商们,变为了滴滴的竞争对手,导致“在企业服务上,滴滴没有伙伴,只有竞争对手。”此外,上述人士向「甲子光年」透露,“滴滴的企业级分销是比较强势的,他们不会留比较高的利润比例给到合作伙伴,但其他B端服务商们会这么做。”3.有流量就有钱袋子总体来看,滴滴仍是亏损的。招股书显示,2018 年、2019 年和2020年,滴滴净亏损分别为人民币150 亿元、人民币97亿元和人民币106亿元,实现扭亏为盈要到2021年第一季度,主要依靠投资收益的大幅增加,才有了5.483亿元的利润。但至少在网约车市场上,滴滴在9年抗战中已经摸到了互联网赚钱的法则。2020年,中国出行业务即网约车为滴滴贡献了最多营收,占比达94.3%。盈利模式主要是抽佣,按照申万宏源(000166,股吧)研究所此前的分析,滴滴抽佣比例大约为20%。落到数据上看,2020年,中国网约车业务息税摊销前利润率仅为3.1%。单纯从这个角度看,网约车业务既烧钱又存在安全和法制的制肘,还不容易盈利,是个辛苦活。但事实上,在互联网模式里,有流量的企业就等于拥有了钱袋子。一方面,用大数据杀熟、把车辆分级、在用车高峰期涨价、青桔涨价等方式,都是互联网的变现方式;另一方面,流量库也便于新平台的导流。2020年底,人民日报发文:“别只惦记着几捆白菜、几斤水果的流量,科技创新的星辰大海、未来的无限可能性,其实更令人心潮澎湃”。正是指向了橙心优选、叮咚买菜等社区团购。彼时,滴滴出行平台月活跃用户突破4亿,滴滴CEO程维也正式宣布将从出行领域进入社区电商市场。然而,即使在网约车业务上,滴滴也远没有走出烧钱阶段,竞争者仍是老对手Uber。2018~2020年,滴滴在中国市场的营收分别为1332.07亿元(约208.2亿美元)、1479.4亿元(约231.23亿美元)和1336.45亿元(约208.89亿美元),同期Uber则为92.88亿美元、107.07亿美元和60.89亿美元。滴滴已经拉开了和Uber的差距。但是,滴滴自2018年起就开始出海了。滴滴在这部分还处于探索的初级阶段,而较早开始国际化的Uber已经覆盖了80多个国家的10,000个城区。据招股书,目前滴滴已经在海外14个国家上线,选定了墨西哥、巴西、印度和南非等国家,主要提供的业务包括出行和外卖。2020年,滴滴的国际业务占总营收的比例不到2%,2018年的比例是0.3%。细化到订单量上,2018年为2.83亿单,2020年则为13.48亿单。根据招股书,滴滴计划将约30%的募资用于扩大中国以外国际市场的业务。4.自动驾驶的滴滴优势除了出海,滴滴亏损的更大原因在于对自动驾驶、共享出行的投入。共享出行、自动驾驶在今天仍然被认为是很大的市场。哈啰出行的早期投资人李志超告诉「甲子光年」,当下出行智能化、共享化的根本原因是司机资源和出行运力的不足,尽管共享出行、自动驾驶已探索近10年,但在今天仍有很大的空间。根据市场咨询机构CIC(China Insights Consultancy)对海内外共享出行市场的分析,中国市场2020年共享出行支出占消费者总出行支出的4.1%,预计到2040年这一比例将上升到35.9%;在国际市场上,共享出行和电动汽车的市场渗透率预计将从2020年的2%和1%分别增加到2040年的23.6%和29.3%。滴滴在招股书中也这么说:随着城市人口越来越密集,方便、高效且负担得起的出行需求越来越难以满足,许多城市对不断增长的私家车拥有量所需的道路和停车基础设施无法提供支持。与此同时,消费升级和年轻一代不断变化的偏好正在将需求转向共享出行。2016年起,滴滴开始布局自动驾驶,相较于百度、AutoX、小马智行等玩家,滴滴自动驾驶起步较晚。但是做出行,滴滴先天就有优势:其一是大数据的可获得性,其二是平台流量优势有助于加速商业化落地。一方面在网约车上的运营经验和真实道路数据,可以帮助滴滴对车内安全数据、车外行车数据进行同步收集,覆盖到目前大部分的真实路测场景中,进一步帮助自动驾驶的算法快速迭代。另一方面,滴滴的平台优势也有助于Robotaxi的推动,以其流量优势,滴滴已经在平台的布局上先行了一步,只要技术达标,商业化落地的速度将大大提升。关于技术上的进展,滴滴自动驾驶CMO孟醒曾向「甲子光年」分享过其在自动驾驶降本增效上的成绩:其自动驾驶硬件平台滴滴双子星,在保持和上代价格一致的情况下,传感器能力增加了接近4倍,清晰度、分辨率、算力增加了1.5倍。5.抢得“共享出行第一股”除滴滴外,出行平台嘀嗒和哈啰也在今年4月传出上市消息。一名分析师向「甲子光年」解释说,年初说Grab要在美股跑起来了,在美股投资人眼里,Grab和滴滴一样,都是亚太地区的Uber。“如果它成功上市的话,那国内的这波故事就性感不起来了。”Grab是东南亚最大的网约车和餐饮配送企业。今年4月13日,Grab宣布将在未来几个月通过SPAC的方式实现在美国纽交所上市。相比于能够同时提供出行、金融、外卖服务的Grab,国内的共享出行概念股在主营业务方面都略显单薄。这很可能是滴滴们集体加快资本进程的原因。争夺“共享出行第一股”,滴滴来得最晚,但仅20天就结束战斗。事实上,这三家企业的业务虽然有类似之处,却各有侧重,上市的具体原因也各有不同。首先,出发点不同。哈啰起于共享单车,滴滴始于出租车预约,而来的更晚的嘀嗒则直接切入了顺风车这个细分市场,在滴滴顺风车遇到困难时仍过得顺风顺水。也因此,三者分别成为了中国市场上共享单车、网约车和顺风车占有率的第一名。三者都有网约车和顺风车业务,都想覆盖到出行领域的方方面面。但技术的出发点不同,哈啰工作人员向「甲子光年」解释,哈啰做“大脑”【2】最开始解决的是海量物联终端(共享车辆、共享电池、电柜)的运营,后来再延伸到四轮业务的司乘匹配场景。而滴滴最开始做大脑是解决车主和乘客之间的司乘匹配问题。嘀嗒成立得最晚,业务规模也更小一些,没有做共享单车的业务,也没有介入烧钱大战。2018~2020年,嘀嗒净亏损分别为16.77亿、7.56亿、21.94亿元。在嘀嗒之后提交招股书的是哈啰,也选择了在美股上市,但直到今天仍没有确切的上市时间。据市场相关人士分析,没有出海业务的中概股们,美股投资人并不熟悉,路演结果不好可能是上市时间长的原因。但是,哈啰早已冲出了共享单车的业务,在招股书中哈啰强调自己是“本地生活服务提供商”。不过,哈啰的财务略显窘迫。业务范围逐步扩大的同时,成本居高不下,收入也只能缓慢爬坡。哈啰三年亏损了48个亿,两轮车占全部亏损的九成。虽然亏损在逐年缩窄,但哈啰目前“长战线、新业务”的战略模式下,二轮车净利转正无望,新业务又急待大量现金投入。滴滴则明显不同。截止2021年3月31日,滴滴账面持有234.68亿元(35.82亿美元)现金及现金等价物,还有239.66亿元(36.58亿美元)短期投资,资金不是滴滴IPO的最重要原因。但是,截至今天滴滴已经融资21轮,已有上百家投资机构(和个人)站在滴滴身后,包括软银、Uber、腾讯、阿里巴巴等。投资人已经等了太久了。软银是滴滴最大股东,上市前持有滴滴21.5%的股票。招股书显示,软银委派的董事会成员松井健太郎(Kentaro Matsui)和他背后的软银将在招股书生效后辞任滴滴董事,除了软银,博裕资本董事总经理陈峙屹(Zhiyi Chen)也将同时退出董事会。还有很多仗要打。滴滴还面临着诸多的难题,比如反垄断监管的加强可能对滴滴的发展造成影响、网约车业务不仅增长缓慢,还面临着监管部门降低抽薪的要求......给投资人松松绑,拿到二级市场的安全卡,站上纳斯达克的滴滴以新的身份,踏上了新的征程。【1】滴滴在招股书中引用了CIC的数据,显示滴滴是全球最大的出行平台。【2】哈啰大脑是哈啰出行自主研发的一套行业领先的智慧系统,最早应用于海量互联的哈啰单车智慧运营。END.本文首发于微信公众号:甲子光年。文章内容属作者个人观点,不代表和讯网立场。投资者据此操作,风险请自担。(责任编辑:李显杰 )","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":151686673,"gmtCreate":1625084236692,"gmtModify":1625084236692,"author":{"id":"3482595947136213","authorId":"3482595947136213","name":"不会飞的猪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ad190f0fd617509ad800a89f700229","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3482595947136213","authorIdStr":"3482595947136213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VTNR\">$Vertex(VTNR)$</a>[龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] 12.5加仓","listText":"<a 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还好这个财报没有惊吓,一个字——稳。囤积大量货说是为美国开卖和饮料浓缩萃取做准备。不知道其他大麻股也像HEXO一样屯这么多货吗?就担心卖不出去[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":23,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/905289401","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3488323614139911","authorId":"3488323614139911","name":"花农不种花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe233c9955fe2082f6a8fbae828d4295","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3488323614139911","idStr":"3488323614139911"},"content":"亏损翻倍,但是销售额增加8到9倍,而且企业规模和市场都在扩张,我觉得应该是比较好的财报。我是小白,别听我的。","text":"亏损翻倍,但是销售额增加8到9倍,而且企业规模和市场都在扩张,我觉得应该是比较好的财报。我是小白,别听我的。","html":"亏损翻倍,但是销售额增加8到9倍,而且企业规模和市场都在扩张,我觉得应该是比较好的财报。我是小白,别听我的。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":905576092,"gmtCreate":1560475462216,"gmtModify":1704700294507,"author":{"id":"3482595947136213","authorId":"3482595947136213","name":"不会飞的猪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ad190f0fd617509ad800a89f700229","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3482595947136213","idStr":"3482595947136213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$HEXO Corp.(HEXO)$ 看完分析师会议记录,焦点集中在公司说下一季收入会翻倍,但CEO没给出具体措施怎样保证翻倍。这个财报不差,上一季已经说明这一季财报不会出彩,增长9%算是可接受范围,魁省大麻专卖原计划开20家店但截止4月30只开13家这是主因,最近已经加快开店速度。单价下降是因为竞争激烈主要是其他150家小规模大麻商无序竞争,CEO解释也合理和他们没规模效应生存不了多久,但有一点没人提到,黑市上安省大麻批发价格才3块多,其实我觉得这才是主因。不过从会议里可以看出HEXO非常有潜力,明年的400mill收入不包括明年可能在美国8个州开卖和和饮料食品可能带来的收入。亏损加剧是非常正常的事,公司员工翻了3倍主要集中招聘研发部门食品专家博士已经招了25个,目标是招100个。没有一家大麻公司积累这么雄厚的技术力量!公司战略非常清晰,食品饮料化妆品市场锁定500强合作,因为HEXO相信自己他们自己开发的巧克力口感味道销售渠道肯定不如那些大公司像雀巢欧莱雅等。欧洲医用大麻在希腊的合作公司有英法等国牌照,未来会加大投入,保证明年会赚钱。感觉这是真正在做事的公司,不是在讲故事。","listText":"$HEXO Corp.(HEXO)$ 看完分析师会议记录,焦点集中在公司说下一季收入会翻倍,但CEO没给出具体措施怎样保证翻倍。这个财报不差,上一季已经说明这一季财报不会出彩,增长9%算是可接受范围,魁省大麻专卖原计划开20家店但截止4月30只开13家这是主因,最近已经加快开店速度。单价下降是因为竞争激烈主要是其他150家小规模大麻商无序竞争,CEO解释也合理和他们没规模效应生存不了多久,但有一点没人提到,黑市上安省大麻批发价格才3块多,其实我觉得这才是主因。不过从会议里可以看出HEXO非常有潜力,明年的400mill收入不包括明年可能在美国8个州开卖和和饮料食品可能带来的收入。亏损加剧是非常正常的事,公司员工翻了3倍主要集中招聘研发部门食品专家博士已经招了25个,目标是招100个。没有一家大麻公司积累这么雄厚的技术力量!公司战略非常清晰,食品饮料化妆品市场锁定500强合作,因为HEXO相信自己他们自己开发的巧克力口感味道销售渠道肯定不如那些大公司像雀巢欧莱雅等。欧洲医用大麻在希腊的合作公司有英法等国牌照,未来会加大投入,保证明年会赚钱。感觉这是真正在做事的公司,不是在讲故事。","text":"$HEXO Corp.(HEXO)$ 看完分析师会议记录,焦点集中在公司说下一季收入会翻倍,但CEO没给出具体措施怎样保证翻倍。这个财报不差,上一季已经说明这一季财报不会出彩,增长9%算是可接受范围,魁省大麻专卖原计划开20家店但截止4月30只开13家这是主因,最近已经加快开店速度。单价下降是因为竞争激烈主要是其他150家小规模大麻商无序竞争,CEO解释也合理和他们没规模效应生存不了多久,但有一点没人提到,黑市上安省大麻批发价格才3块多,其实我觉得这才是主因。不过从会议里可以看出HEXO非常有潜力,明年的400mill收入不包括明年可能在美国8个州开卖和和饮料食品可能带来的收入。亏损加剧是非常正常的事,公司员工翻了3倍主要集中招聘研发部门食品专家博士已经招了25个,目标是招100个。没有一家大麻公司积累这么雄厚的技术力量!公司战略非常清晰,食品饮料化妆品市场锁定500强合作,因为HEXO相信自己他们自己开发的巧克力口感味道销售渠道肯定不如那些大公司像雀巢欧莱雅等。欧洲医用大麻在希腊的合作公司有英法等国牌照,未来会加大投入,保证明年会赚钱。感觉这是真正在做事的公司,不是在讲故事。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/905576092","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3485338771748296","authorId":"3485338771748296","name":"圣地麦加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fed6d6407affa945a1b6bdcaf275c8","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3485338771748296","idStr":"3485338771748296"},"content":"这个圣路易斯还是比较务实的,对于我们来说,他最不应该在上个月卖出大量股票,现在看他做的对。他现在回购,相当于赚了20%多。 [喷血]","text":"这个圣路易斯还是比较务实的,对于我们来说,他最不应该在上个月卖出大量股票,现在看他做的对。他现在回购,相当于赚了20%多。 [喷血]","html":"这个圣路易斯还是比较务实的,对于我们来说,他最不应该在上个月卖出大量股票,现在看他做的对。他现在回购,相当于赚了20%多。 [喷血]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":134247773,"gmtCreate":1622245636892,"gmtModify":1622245636892,"author":{"id":"3482595947136213","authorId":"3482595947136213","name":"不会飞的猪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ad190f0fd617509ad800a89f700229","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3482595947136213","idStr":"3482595947136213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">$LIZHI Inc(LIZI)$</a>和知乎营收差不多,知乎亏损负现金流,荔枝连续两季盈利正现金流,当然增速比知乎差多了,但是对比前几年营收增速下降,上季有所改善。PS知乎接近15,荔枝仅仅是1.3,不是荔枝低估就是知乎高估","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">$LIZHI Inc(LIZI)$</a>和知乎营收差不多,知乎亏损负现金流,荔枝连续两季盈利正现金流,当然增速比知乎差多了,但是对比前几年营收增速下降,上季有所改善。PS知乎接近15,荔枝仅仅是1.3,不是荔枝低估就是知乎高估","text":"$LIZHI Inc(LIZI)$和知乎营收差不多,知乎亏损负现金流,荔枝连续两季盈利正现金流,当然增速比知乎差多了,但是对比前几年营收增速下降,上季有所改善。PS知乎接近15,荔枝仅仅是1.3,不是荔枝低估就是知乎高估","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134247773","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3547115658199897","authorId":"3547115658199897","name":"这次要长期持有","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0235ab6413d42bda66325904d5b1ebc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3547115658199897","idStr":"3547115658199897"},"content":"虽然我看好荔枝能涨,但是不同意荔枝跟知乎比。国内知乎只有一个,而荔枝至少有两三个(喜马拉雅就比荔枝用户多)","text":"虽然我看好荔枝能涨,但是不同意荔枝跟知乎比。国内知乎只有一个,而荔枝至少有两三个(喜马拉雅就比荔枝用户多)","html":"虽然我看好荔枝能涨,但是不同意荔枝跟知乎比。国内知乎只有一个,而荔枝至少有两三个(喜马拉雅就比荔枝用户多)"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365423149,"gmtCreate":1614772789181,"gmtModify":1703480907312,"author":{"id":"3482595947136213","authorId":"3482595947136213","name":"不会飞的猪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ad190f0fd617509ad800a89f700229","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3482595947136213","idStr":"3482595947136213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">$Rocket Companies(RKT)$</a>空头是很执拗的,卖空前看一看基本面吧,值得去冒险吗?即使RKT涨到60,市盈率也不过15倍,对一家不论盈利还是营收同比倍增的股票来说,15倍低得可怜。低成本持有的别急着卖,坐等空头抬轿子。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">$Rocket Companies(RKT)$</a>空头是很执拗的,卖空前看一看基本面吧,值得去冒险吗?即使RKT涨到60,市盈率也不过15倍,对一家不论盈利还是营收同比倍增的股票来说,15倍低得可怜。低成本持有的别急着卖,坐等空头抬轿子。","text":"$Rocket Companies(RKT)$空头是很执拗的,卖空前看一看基本面吧,值得去冒险吗?即使RKT涨到60,市盈率也不过15倍,对一家不论盈利还是营收同比倍增的股票来说,15倍低得可怜。低成本持有的别急着卖,坐等空头抬轿子。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365423149","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3561073671533659","authorId":"3561073671533659","name":"山手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8631fdfc1024e231c1f2e39c29c857","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3561073671533659","idStr":"3561073671533659"},"content":"这次财报的业绩是空前的,估计以后也不可能出现了,另外金利上升,业绩会马上下降.所以被做空.","text":"这次财报的业绩是空前的,估计以后也不可能出现了,另外金利上升,业绩会马上下降.所以被做空.","html":"这次财报的业绩是空前的,估计以后也不可能出现了,另外金利上升,业绩会马上下降.所以被做空."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317459658,"gmtCreate":1612477954874,"gmtModify":1703762414509,"author":{"id":"3482595947136213","authorId":"3482595947136213","name":"不会飞的猪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ad190f0fd617509ad800a89f700229","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3482595947136213","idStr":"3482595947136213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$</a>不合理啊,才涨这么一点,明天不冲上90都是入场机会,FB每用户贡献将近10元收入,PINS才美国用户才不到6元,国际用户更是少的可怜才0.35元,最大用户市场在国外是美国用户数三倍多,好好开发,只要保持国际市场用户数增长和每用户营收增长,年底在翻倍是大概率的事","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$</a>不合理啊,才涨这么一点,明天不冲上90都是入场机会,FB每用户贡献将近10元收入,PINS才美国用户才不到6元,国际用户更是少的可怜才0.35元,最大用户市场在国外是美国用户数三倍多,好好开发,只要保持国际市场用户数增长和每用户营收增长,年底在翻倍是大概率的事","text":"$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$不合理啊,才涨这么一点,明天不冲上90都是入场机会,FB每用户贡献将近10元收入,PINS才美国用户才不到6元,国际用户更是少的可怜才0.35元,最大用户市场在国外是美国用户数三倍多,好好开发,只要保持国际市场用户数增长和每用户营收增长,年底在翻倍是大概率的事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317459658","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3482595947136213","authorId":"3482595947136213","name":"不会飞的猪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ad190f0fd617509ad800a89f700229","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3482595947136213","idStr":"3482595947136213"},"content":"去公司网站上看,打鸡血似的增长率,用户增长更是达到可怕的37%,美国市场基本就这样了,国际市场可是达到46%,美国用户不到1亿,国际用户超3亿,挖一挖变现很容易的。收入构成广告主体,明年要进一步拓展网购体验,又是一个强劲增长点,现在合作对象从亚马孙Shopify,esty 还在增加中...年底千亿市值可期","text":"去公司网站上看,打鸡血似的增长率,用户增长更是达到可怕的37%,美国市场基本就这样了,国际市场可是达到46%,美国用户不到1亿,国际用户超3亿,挖一挖变现很容易的。收入构成广告主体,明年要进一步拓展网购体验,又是一个强劲增长点,现在合作对象从亚马孙Shopify,esty 还在增加中...年底千亿市值可期","html":"去公司网站上看,打鸡血似的增长率,用户增长更是达到可怕的37%,美国市场基本就这样了,国际市场可是达到46%,美国用户不到1亿,国际用户超3亿,挖一挖变现很容易的。收入构成广告主体,明年要进一步拓展网购体验,又是一个强劲增长点,现在合作对象从亚马孙Shopify,esty 还在增加中...年底千亿市值可期"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":433126,"gmtCreate":1552944147354,"gmtModify":1704793531055,"author":{"id":"3482595947136213","authorId":"3482595947136213","name":"不会飞的猪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ad190f0fd617509ad800a89f700229","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3482595947136213","idStr":"3482595947136213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$HEXO Corp.(HEXO)$看来明天要跳空一路狂奔! TLRY销售量比hexo 低,亏损加剧,就这样市值还比hexo大3倍。扣除tlry流通盘小的特性,hexo 应当轻松翻倍。","listText":"$HEXO Corp.(HEXO)$看来明天要跳空一路狂奔! TLRY销售量比hexo 低,亏损加剧,就这样市值还比hexo大3倍。扣除tlry流通盘小的特性,hexo 应当轻松翻倍。","text":"$HEXO Corp.(HEXO)$看来明天要跳空一路狂奔! TLRY销售量比hexo 低,亏损加剧,就这样市值还比hexo大3倍。扣除tlry流通盘小的特性,hexo 应当轻松翻倍。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/433126","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3485338771748296","authorId":"3485338771748296","name":"圣地麦加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fed6d6407affa945a1b6bdcaf275c8","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3485338771748296","idStr":"3485338771748296"},"content":"太猛了。受不了了。[笑哭]","text":"太猛了。受不了了。[笑哭]","html":"太猛了。受不了了。[笑哭]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":905439173,"gmtCreate":1560487718592,"gmtModify":1704700330766,"author":{"id":"3482595947136213","authorId":"3482595947136213","name":"不会飞的猪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ad190f0fd617509ad800a89f700229","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3482595947136213","idStr":"3482595947136213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$HEXO Corp.(HEXO)$ 美银分析师维持10元目标价不变,仍然认为HEXO是最有价值大麻股。明天当涨","listText":"$HEXO Corp.(HEXO)$ 美银分析师维持10元目标价不变,仍然认为HEXO是最有价值大麻股。明天当涨","text":"$HEXO Corp.(HEXO)$ 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