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2023-02-03
大利好
美国财政部将特斯拉、通用、大众和福特汽车的电动汽车税收抵免上限提高到8万美元
挂空挡
2020-04-08
$黄金主连(GCmain)$
黄金的走势真特么让人看不懂!
挂空挡
2020-03-19
美国政府花了这么多钱赈灾,等疫情过后绝对会从别的国家头上扒回来!
抱歉,原内容已删除
挂空挡
2020-03-14
$黄金主连(GCmain)$
完蛋啦!大盘往下跌的情形我只在港片《大时代》里面见过,现在真是见到真儿张了!
挂空挡
2020-03-13
沪市2300多支股票下跌,还什么韧性!狗屁文章纯属幸福差事!啊呸!
市场综述:海外避险情绪高涨!港A两市韧性尽显
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2020-02-06
都是美国人民的好总统的功劳,只不过吃像不好看
抱歉,原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a>黄金的走势真特么让人看不懂!","text":"$黄金主连(GCmain)$黄金的走势真特么让人看不懂!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921462417","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3513635845857293","authorId":"3513635845857293","name":"堕落王者流浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64361c2edccb2a3e01f30188dc00f91a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"有什么看不懂的,反正我是看涨,美元开启无限印钞,美元贬值,黄金其实并不是升值而是保值,钱放在手里无限贬值,放在黄金上还能保值升值,大方向上看涨就完了,没那么多说头的","text":"有什么看不懂的,反正我是看涨,美元开启无限印钞,美元贬值,黄金其实并不是升值而是保值,钱放在手里无限贬值,放在黄金上还能保值升值,大方向上看涨就完了,没那么多说头的","html":"有什么看不懂的,反正我是看涨,美元开启无限印钞,美元贬值,黄金其实并不是升值而是保值,钱放在手里无限贬值,放在黄金上还能保值升值,大方向上看涨就完了,没那么多说头的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967508395,"gmtCreate":1584628013317,"gmtModify":1704355381209,"author":{"id":"3481146912567379","authorId":"3481146912567379","name":"挂空挡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8513d9293329a7fe9feceb08fbb53649","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美国政府花了这么多钱赈灾,等疫情过后绝对会从别的国家头上扒回来!","listText":"美国政府花了这么多钱赈灾,等疫情过后绝对会从别的国家头上扒回来!","text":"美国政府花了这么多钱赈灾,等疫情过后绝对会从别的国家头上扒回来!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967508395","repostId":"2020645161","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964962818,"gmtCreate":1584117627334,"gmtModify":1704353210174,"author":{"id":"3481146912567379","authorId":"3481146912567379","name":"挂空挡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8513d9293329a7fe9feceb08fbb53649","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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完蛋啦!大盘往下跌的情形我只在港片《大时代》里面见过,现在真是见到真儿张了!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964962818","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964009565,"gmtCreate":1584091308957,"gmtModify":1704352992419,"author":{"id":"3481146912567379","authorId":"3481146912567379","name":"挂空挡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8513d9293329a7fe9feceb08fbb53649","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"沪市2300多支股票下跌,还什么韧性!狗屁文章纯属幸福差事!啊呸!","listText":"沪市2300多支股票下跌,还什么韧性!狗屁文章纯属幸福差事!啊呸!","text":"沪市2300多支股票下跌,还什么韧性!狗屁文章纯属幸福差事!啊呸!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964009565","repostId":"1126265368","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126265368","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1584089939,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126265368?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-13 16:58","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"市场综述:海外避险情绪高涨!港A两市韧性尽显","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126265368","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"在外盘一片恐慌之际,港股和A股却展现自身韧性,充分凸显出抗跌特质,从而有望成为国际资本避风港湾。港股今日港股市场开盘大跌,午后现直线拉涨,恒指国指盘中几乎飘红,市场探底回升十分明显。截至收盘,恒指跌1","content":"<p><span>在外盘一片恐慌之际,港股和A股却展现自身韧性,充分凸显出抗跌特质,</span>从而<span>有望成为国际资本避风港湾。</span></p><p><span><b>港股</b></span></p><p><span>今日港股市场开盘大跌,午后现直线拉涨,恒指国指盘中几乎飘红,市场探底回升十分明显。</span></p><p><span>截至收盘,恒指跌1.14%,报24032.91点。国指跌0.78%,报9650点。主板成交量放大至2024.34亿港元,港股通大幅净流入168.8亿港元。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bfd0ad94d8f441337acb78f1e597e11\" /><span>上午盘行业板块全部下跌,午后医疗设备股拉升领涨,半导体、石油股、手游股、手机概念股纷纷止跌拉涨,生物科技、电信股领跌,濠赌股依旧弱势。</span></p><p><span>个股方面,舜宇收涨近2%为最佳恒指成份股;三桶油集体飘红,中海油涨1.54%;腾讯小幅收涨,早盘一度大跌超7%;申洲国际仍大跌6.66%;电能实业、长和、长江基建集团跌逾5%。本周全球股市经历暴跌,美国等多国股指发生熔断创下历史记录。本周恒指大跌8.08%,国指周跌7.72%。</span></p><p><span><b>A股</b></span></p><p><span>两市主要指数低开高走,沪指早间低开逾4%后回升,收跌1.23%报2887.43点;深成指跌1%报10831.13点,早间低开逾5%的创业板午后曾翻红,收跌0.75%报2030.58点。两市成交额逾9600亿,2887股下跌,839股上涨;北上资金净流出130亿。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf4d09b5893a954cc816077ea527f7e7\" /><span>盘面上,土地流转概念股现涨停潮,海南橡胶、中华企业等17股涨停;特高压概念再度大涨,变特电工、中国西电等十多股涨停;光刻机概念全天强势,江化微、智光电气等多股涨停。口罩防护概念重挫,道恩股份、国恩股份等近十股跌停;医废处理、黄金、抗流感等概念大跌。</span></p><p><span><b>美股</b></span></p><p><span>美股期指持续走高,截至目前,道指期货涨2.65%,纳指期货涨3.32%,标普50指数期货涨2.90%。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a66597f96d792d5baced4277a83fb4d5\" /><span><b>欧股</b></span></p><p><span>欧洲主要股指涨幅缩窄,截止发稿,英国富时100指数涨2.13%,欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.26%,德国DAX指数涨0.83%。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8441c0c9c75973259b7912e4f308a87\" /><span><b>原油</b></span></p><p><span>美、布两油短线拉升,WTI原油涨3.65%,报32.63美元/桶;布伦特原油涨3.49%,报34.38美元/桶。</span></p><p><span>原油市场,油价受到全球股市大跌的拖累,短线面临进一步下行风险。</span></p><p><span><b>黄金</b></span></p><p>现货黄金短线小幅上涨,截至发稿,金价报1587.76美元/盎司,涨幅0.61%。</p><p><span>受到美元走强和多数大宗商品下跌的拖累,技术面看空信号进一步加强,后市下行风险仍存。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场综述:海外避险情绪高涨!港A两市韧性尽显</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场综述:海外避险情绪高涨!港A两市韧性尽显\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-03-13 16:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><span>在外盘一片恐慌之际,港股和A股却展现自身韧性,充分凸显出抗跌特质,</span>从而<span>有望成为国际资本避风港湾。</span></p><p><span><b>港股</b></span></p><p><span>今日港股市场开盘大跌,午后现直线拉涨,恒指国指盘中几乎飘红,市场探底回升十分明显。</span></p><p><span>截至收盘,恒指跌1.14%,报24032.91点。国指跌0.78%,报9650点。主板成交量放大至2024.34亿港元,港股通大幅净流入168.8亿港元。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bfd0ad94d8f441337acb78f1e597e11\" /><span>上午盘行业板块全部下跌,午后医疗设备股拉升领涨,半导体、石油股、手游股、手机概念股纷纷止跌拉涨,生物科技、电信股领跌,濠赌股依旧弱势。</span></p><p><span>个股方面,舜宇收涨近2%为最佳恒指成份股;三桶油集体飘红,中海油涨1.54%;腾讯小幅收涨,早盘一度大跌超7%;申洲国际仍大跌6.66%;电能实业、长和、长江基建集团跌逾5%。本周全球股市经历暴跌,美国等多国股指发生熔断创下历史记录。本周恒指大跌8.08%,国指周跌7.72%。</span></p><p><span><b>A股</b></span></p><p><span>两市主要指数低开高走,沪指早间低开逾4%后回升,收跌1.23%报2887.43点;深成指跌1%报10831.13点,早间低开逾5%的创业板午后曾翻红,收跌0.75%报2030.58点。两市成交额逾9600亿,2887股下跌,839股上涨;北上资金净流出130亿。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf4d09b5893a954cc816077ea527f7e7\" /><span>盘面上,土地流转概念股现涨停潮,海南橡胶、中华企业等17股涨停;特高压概念再度大涨,变特电工、中国西电等十多股涨停;光刻机概念全天强势,江化微、智光电气等多股涨停。口罩防护概念重挫,道恩股份、国恩股份等近十股跌停;医废处理、黄金、抗流感等概念大跌。</span></p><p><span><b>美股</b></span></p><p><span>美股期指持续走高,截至目前,道指期货涨2.65%,纳指期货涨3.32%,标普50指数期货涨2.90%。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a66597f96d792d5baced4277a83fb4d5\" /><span><b>欧股</b></span></p><p><span>欧洲主要股指涨幅缩窄,截止发稿,英国富时100指数涨2.13%,欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.26%,德国DAX指数涨0.83%。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8441c0c9c75973259b7912e4f308a87\" /><span><b>原油</b></span></p><p><span>美、布两油短线拉升,WTI原油涨3.65%,报32.63美元/桶;布伦特原油涨3.49%,报34.38美元/桶。</span></p><p><span>原油市场,油价受到全球股市大跌的拖累,短线面临进一步下行风险。</span></p><p><span><b>黄金</b></span></p><p>现货黄金短线小幅上涨,截至发稿,金价报1587.76美元/盎司,涨幅0.61%。</p><p><span>受到美元走强和多数大宗商品下跌的拖累,技术面看空信号进一步加强,后市下行风险仍存。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","HSI":"恒生指数","SPY":"标普500ETF","000001.SH":"上证指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126265368","content_text":"在外盘一片恐慌之际,港股和A股却展现自身韧性,充分凸显出抗跌特质,从而有望成为国际资本避风港湾。港股今日港股市场开盘大跌,午后现直线拉涨,恒指国指盘中几乎飘红,市场探底回升十分明显。截至收盘,恒指跌1.14%,报24032.91点。国指跌0.78%,报9650点。主板成交量放大至2024.34亿港元,港股通大幅净流入168.8亿港元。上午盘行业板块全部下跌,午后医疗设备股拉升领涨,半导体、石油股、手游股、手机概念股纷纷止跌拉涨,生物科技、电信股领跌,濠赌股依旧弱势。个股方面,舜宇收涨近2%为最佳恒指成份股;三桶油集体飘红,中海油涨1.54%;腾讯小幅收涨,早盘一度大跌超7%;申洲国际仍大跌6.66%;电能实业、长和、长江基建集团跌逾5%。本周全球股市经历暴跌,美国等多国股指发生熔断创下历史记录。本周恒指大跌8.08%,国指周跌7.72%。A股两市主要指数低开高走,沪指早间低开逾4%后回升,收跌1.23%报2887.43点;深成指跌1%报10831.13点,早间低开逾5%的创业板午后曾翻红,收跌0.75%报2030.58点。两市成交额逾9600亿,2887股下跌,839股上涨;北上资金净流出130亿。盘面上,土地流转概念股现涨停潮,海南橡胶、中华企业等17股涨停;特高压概念再度大涨,变特电工、中国西电等十多股涨停;光刻机概念全天强势,江化微、智光电气等多股涨停。口罩防护概念重挫,道恩股份、国恩股份等近十股跌停;医废处理、黄金、抗流感等概念大跌。美股美股期指持续走高,截至目前,道指期货涨2.65%,纳指期货涨3.32%,标普50指数期货涨2.90%。欧股欧洲主要股指涨幅缩窄,截止发稿,英国富时100指数涨2.13%,欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.26%,德国DAX指数涨0.83%。原油美、布两油短线拉升,WTI原油涨3.65%,报32.63美元/桶;布伦特原油涨3.49%,报34.38美元/桶。原油市场,油价受到全球股市大跌的拖累,短线面临进一步下行风险。黄金现货黄金短线小幅上涨,截至发稿,金价报1587.76美元/盎司,涨幅0.61%。受到美元走强和多数大宗商品下跌的拖累,技术面看空信号进一步加强,后市下行风险仍存。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":999,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":915716870,"gmtCreate":1580925663690,"gmtModify":1704342953445,"author":{"id":"3481146912567379","authorId":"3481146912567379","name":"挂空挡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8513d9293329a7fe9feceb08fbb53649","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"都是美国人民的好总统的功劳,只不过吃像不好看","listText":"都是美国人民的好总统的功劳,只不过吃像不好看","text":"都是美国人民的好总统的功劳,只不过吃像不好看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/915716870","repostId":"1187944530","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":964009565,"gmtCreate":1584091308957,"gmtModify":1704352992419,"author":{"id":"3481146912567379","authorId":"3481146912567379","name":"挂空挡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8513d9293329a7fe9feceb08fbb53649","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"沪市2300多支股票下跌,还什么韧性!狗屁文章纯属幸福差事!啊呸!","listText":"沪市2300多支股票下跌,还什么韧性!狗屁文章纯属幸福差事!啊呸!","text":"沪市2300多支股票下跌,还什么韧性!狗屁文章纯属幸福差事!啊呸!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964009565","repostId":"1126265368","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":999,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":915716870,"gmtCreate":1580925663690,"gmtModify":1704342953445,"author":{"id":"3481146912567379","authorId":"3481146912567379","name":"挂空挡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8513d9293329a7fe9feceb08fbb53649","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"都是美国人民的好总统的功劳,只不过吃像不好看","listText":"都是美国人民的好总统的功劳,只不过吃像不好看","text":"都是美国人民的好总统的功劳,只不过吃像不好看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/915716870","repostId":"1187944530","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187944530","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1580909027,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187944530?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-02-05 21:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国1月ADP就业人数增加29.1万人,大幅好于预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187944530","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"北京时间2月5日晚间,“小非农”ADP数据公布,数据显示美国1月ADP就业人数增加29.1万人,预期增加15.6万人,前值增加20.2万人。美国1月ADP就业人数创2019年1月以来新高。具体来看,1","content":"<p>北京时间2月5日晚间,<span>“小非农”ADP数据公布,数据显示美国1月ADP就业人数增加29.1万人,预期增加15.6万人,前值增加20.2万人。美国1月ADP就业人数创2019年1月以来新高。</span></p><p>具体来看,<span>1月制造业就业人数增加1万人,12月增加4.7万人。1月建筑业就业人数增加4.7万人,12月增加3.7万人。1月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人数增加0.8万人,12月增加7.8万人。</span></p><p><span>1月金融服务业就业人数增加0.2万人,12月增加1万人</span><b>。</b><span>1月专业/商业服务就业人数增加4.9万人,12月增加6.1万人。1月美国私营领域就业人数增幅为2015年5月以来新高。</span></p><p><span>“小非农”ADP数据公布后,国际黄金短线小幅下挫2.07美元;国际白银变动不大;美元指数DXY变动不大。</span></p><p><b>ADP就业数据公司副总裁称,商品生产商增加了就业机会,特别是在建筑和制造业,而服务提供商在休闲和招待方面获得了很大的收益。中等规模的公司创造了大量就业机会,但小公司在过去18个月的表现最好。</b></p><p><span>穆迪首席经济学家詹迪表示,温和的冬季天气极大地促进了一月份的就业增长。休闲业、招待业和建筑业的就业机会增加幅度特别大。就业增长背后的数据中显示,这与低失业率和稳定失业率相一致。</span></p><p>此前,<span>据CME“美联储观察”,美联储3月维持当前利率在1.50%-1.75%区间的概率为92.3%,降息25个基点的概率为7.7%,加息25个基点的概率为0%;到4月维持当前利率在1.50%-1.75%区间的概率为79.4%,降息25个基点的概率为19.5%,降息50个基点的概率为1.1%。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国1月ADP就业人数增加29.1万人,大幅好于预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-02-05 21:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>北京时间2月5日晚间,<span>“小非农”ADP数据公布,数据显示美国1月ADP就业人数增加29.1万人,预期增加15.6万人,前值增加20.2万人。美国1月ADP就业人数创2019年1月以来新高。</span></p><p>具体来看,<span>1月制造业就业人数增加1万人,12月增加4.7万人。1月建筑业就业人数增加4.7万人,12月增加3.7万人。1月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人数增加0.8万人,12月增加7.8万人。</span></p><p><span>1月金融服务业就业人数增加0.2万人,12月增加1万人</span><b>。</b><span>1月专业/商业服务就业人数增加4.9万人,12月增加6.1万人。1月美国私营领域就业人数增幅为2015年5月以来新高。</span></p><p><span>“小非农”ADP数据公布后,国际黄金短线小幅下挫2.07美元;国际白银变动不大;美元指数DXY变动不大。</span></p><p><b>ADP就业数据公司副总裁称,商品生产商增加了就业机会,特别是在建筑和制造业,而服务提供商在休闲和招待方面获得了很大的收益。中等规模的公司创造了大量就业机会,但小公司在过去18个月的表现最好。</b></p><p><span>穆迪首席经济学家詹迪表示,温和的冬季天气极大地促进了一月份的就业增长。休闲业、招待业和建筑业的就业机会增加幅度特别大。就业增长背后的数据中显示,这与低失业率和稳定失业率相一致。</span></p><p>此前,<span>据CME“美联储观察”,美联储3月维持当前利率在1.50%-1.75%区间的概率为92.3%,降息25个基点的概率为7.7%,加息25个基点的概率为0%;到4月维持当前利率在1.50%-1.75%区间的概率为79.4%,降息25个基点的概率为19.5%,降息50个基点的概率为1.1%。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187944530","content_text":"北京时间2月5日晚间,“小非农”ADP数据公布,数据显示美国1月ADP就业人数增加29.1万人,预期增加15.6万人,前值增加20.2万人。美国1月ADP就业人数创2019年1月以来新高。具体来看,1月制造业就业人数增加1万人,12月增加4.7万人。1月建筑业就业人数增加4.7万人,12月增加3.7万人。1月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人数增加0.8万人,12月增加7.8万人。1月金融服务业就业人数增加0.2万人,12月增加1万人。1月专业/商业服务就业人数增加4.9万人,12月增加6.1万人。1月美国私营领域就业人数增幅为2015年5月以来新高。“小非农”ADP数据公布后,国际黄金短线小幅下挫2.07美元;国际白银变动不大;美元指数DXY变动不大。ADP就业数据公司副总裁称,商品生产商增加了就业机会,特别是在建筑和制造业,而服务提供商在休闲和招待方面获得了很大的收益。中等规模的公司创造了大量就业机会,但小公司在过去18个月的表现最好。穆迪首席经济学家詹迪表示,温和的冬季天气极大地促进了一月份的就业增长。休闲业、招待业和建筑业的就业机会增加幅度特别大。就业增长背后的数据中显示,这与低失业率和稳定失业率相一致。此前,据CME“美联储观察”,美联储3月维持当前利率在1.50%-1.75%区间的概率为92.3%,降息25个基点的概率为7.7%,加息25个基点的概率为0%;到4月维持当前利率在1.50%-1.75%区间的概率为79.4%,降息25个基点的概率为19.5%,降息50个基点的概率为1.1%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":921462417,"gmtCreate":1586356006739,"gmtModify":1704361009975,"author":{"id":"3481146912567379","authorId":"3481146912567379","name":"挂空挡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8513d9293329a7fe9feceb08fbb53649","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a>黄金的走势真特么让人看不懂!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a>黄金的走势真特么让人看不懂!","text":"$黄金主连(GCmain)$黄金的走势真特么让人看不懂!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921462417","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3513635845857293","authorId":"3513635845857293","name":"堕落王者流浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64361c2edccb2a3e01f30188dc00f91a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"有什么看不懂的,反正我是看涨,美元开启无限印钞,美元贬值,黄金其实并不是升值而是保值,钱放在手里无限贬值,放在黄金上还能保值升值,大方向上看涨就完了,没那么多说头的","text":"有什么看不懂的,反正我是看涨,美元开启无限印钞,美元贬值,黄金其实并不是升值而是保值,钱放在手里无限贬值,放在黄金上还能保值升值,大方向上看涨就完了,没那么多说头的","html":"有什么看不懂的,反正我是看涨,美元开启无限印钞,美元贬值,黄金其实并不是升值而是保值,钱放在手里无限贬值,放在黄金上还能保值升值,大方向上看涨就完了,没那么多说头的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622686752,"gmtCreate":1675438589777,"gmtModify":1675438591871,"author":{"id":"3481146912567379","authorId":"3481146912567379","name":"挂空挡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8513d9293329a7fe9feceb08fbb53649","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大利好","listText":"大利好","text":"大利好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622686752","repostId":"2308664708","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967508395,"gmtCreate":1584628013317,"gmtModify":1704355381209,"author":{"id":"3481146912567379","authorId":"3481146912567379","name":"挂空挡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8513d9293329a7fe9feceb08fbb53649","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美国政府花了这么多钱赈灾,等疫情过后绝对会从别的国家头上扒回来!","listText":"美国政府花了这么多钱赈灾,等疫情过后绝对会从别的国家头上扒回来!","text":"美国政府花了这么多钱赈灾,等疫情过后绝对会从别的国家头上扒回来!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967508395","repostId":"2020645161","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2020645161","pubTimestamp":1584625590,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2020645161?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-19 21:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"苍天饶过谁,华尔街到底在恐惧什么?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2020645161","media":"新浪财经-自媒体综合","summary":"原创 冥王星 格隆汇APP\n 作者 | 冥王星\n 数据支持 | 勾股大数据\n 当疫情刚发生的时候,绝大多数人都把它当一次短期事件处理,在投资记忆里,这类事件最终会过去,所有的下砸都会变成黄金坑。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 原创 冥王星 格隆汇APP</p>\n<p> 作者 | 冥王星</p>\n<p> 数据支持 | 勾股大数据</p>\n<p> 当疫情刚发生的时候,绝大多数人都把它当一次短期事件处理,在投资记忆里,这类事件最终会过去,所有的下砸都会变成黄金坑。但<strong>走到今天,可以看出,它不是一次类911事件,而是类似一场战争,并且是一场全面的战争,在世界各地爆发。</strong></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/120/w550h370/20200319/f3ae-iqyrykv6666563.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p> 只有战争期间,我们的需求才会被极大地压缩,只需要面包和医疗。绝大多数的需求消失了,消失的时间会持续多久目前仍然是未知的。<strong>在这个未知的时间里,除了少数行业外,其他各行各业都将面临一个问题,现金流断了。我们很快会在一季度里见识到这一冲击,一些惊掉下巴的数据将出现。</strong></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/142/w550h392/20200319/35e7-iqyrykv6666588.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/0/w550h250/20200319/bcfb-iqyrykv6666612.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/272/w535h537/20200319/d191-iqyrykv6666642.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p> 我们社会的运行,受各种契约约束,这些契约并不会因为经济的停摆而暂停。企业要支付工资、租金、利息,个人要偿还房贷、车贷。任何一个人,都无法凭其良心阻挡契约的滚滚车轮;任何一个强大的政府,都不能对所有契约按下暂停键,中国不能,欧美更不可能。当契约不能正常被执行,暴力的去契约就来临。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/144/w550h394/20200319/bca4-iqyrykv6666689.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p> 大规模的裁员是任何一家公司,尤其是大公司不愿意面对的,它既伤公司声誉,又引起市场恐慌猜疑。<strong>所以,大规模裁员不会立即发生,公司会用自己的账面现金撑着,也许就撑到了病毒消失。</strong>但是,多年的低利率环境,为了自己和股东的利益,公司管理层进行了大量负债回购,并且回购到几乎变态的地步<strong>。美国许多企业从账面上看,是资不抵债,比如<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">麦当劳</a></span><span></span>。</strong></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/786/w550h236/20200319/7574-iqyrykv6666740.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p> <strong>美国的企业文化里,第一准则是为股东创造价值,在长期的低利率环境里,大量负债回购,账面没有留下多少现金。</strong>这一机制运行良好的前提是岁月静好。当然,由于利率低,企业再融资容易,即使碰上经济衰退,凭着低息环境和自己依旧会有的营业收入(哪怕下滑),也可以撑得过去。打个比方说,低利率环境下,负债回购,没留下多少现金,企业预设了即使经济波动3个方差,也能存活。但要命的是,这次是一个4个标准差外的特殊群体事件发生了。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/140/w550h390/20200319/d6ef-iqyrykv6666776.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p> 不是一个行业,不是一家企业,是大量的企业都发现,自己的账面现金不够。为了生存下去,为了以防更恶化的形势,许多企业冲到银行,把自己的信贷额度提完,确保自己的流动性。我们看到的,飞机制造巨头<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a></span><span></span>提了138亿美元,芯片制造商<span>美光</span><span></span>提完了25亿美元,欧洲航空租赁巨头Aercap提完了40亿美元,博彩运营商Penn提完剩下的4.3亿美元,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">嘉年华邮轮</a>提完30亿美元。听说,波音已经刷爆了自己的信用卡,濒临破产,波音最近每晚都是一二十个点的跌幅,千亿美元的波音,只几个晚上,变成了500多亿美元。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/451/w451h800/20200319/2cf8-iqyrykv6666806.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p> <strong>银行的准备金很快会被打爆。</strong>2014年以来,美联储逐渐退出QE,并于2017年开始缩表,但美国政府发债有增无减。随着美联储的甩锅,吃债的压力就落到了银行身上。美国一级交易商银行持有美债的规模节节高升,超额准备金不断下降,这限制了银行提供信贷的能力。</p>\n<p> <strong>一级交易商银行净持有美债的头寸</strong></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/300/w550h550/20200319/a1c4-iqyrykv6666832.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p> (来源:纽约联储)</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/27/w550h277/20200319/aefc-iqyrykv6666852.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p> 2020年3月16日,美联储等不及常规的FOMC会议了,将联邦基准利率降到0,并且推出7000亿购债计划(新一轮QE)。许多人称美联储吓崩了市场,其实真实是美联储看到了情况的严重性。再不行动,银行的准备金枯竭,短融市场的利率将暴动。2020年3月17日,美联储再推出“商业票据融资机制(CPFF)”,直接下场买票据,向实体企业注入流动性。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/118/w550h368/20200319/9a2a-iqyrykv6666942.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p> 但是,影响的范围是如此广泛,这么多企业同一时间失血,美联储注入流动性也只能支撑一时。财政刺激政策也不会有太大作用,传统的财政刺激,是通过减税,或者政府购买,一层层导下去,比如政府购买增加A的收入,A收入增加加大需求从而增加B的收入,一层层下去,这是财政的杠杆效应。但是,<strong>这次棘手在于,这只病毒阻碍了杠杆效应的发挥,政府减税也好,发钱也好,大量的需求仍然无法被激活,这些领域的企业仍然无法产生现金流。</strong></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/727/w550h977/20200319/255b-iqyrykv6666990.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p> 解铃还需系铃人,中国以牺牲经济的方式,停摆两个月,打了一场艰难的围歼战,目前看来是相当有成效的,国内多地已经持续多日无境内新增了。欧美国家,早期因各种原因,错失了战机,目前来看,即使大家开始恐慌,减少活动,结束恐怕还在两周之上。<strong>这个期间,经济的停摆所导致的流动性危机,还将继续蔓延于资本市场,谁会是第一个倒下的巨头?波音、航空、邮轮? </strong></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/265/w536h529/20200319/0c61-iqyrykv6667055.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/268/w535h533/20200319/412a-iqyrykv6667092.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p> <strong>资本市场的杠杆又将放大这一恐慌</strong>,2020年3月18日传出的桥水爆仓即是一个证明(事后证明是假消息)。最近,市场开始抛售了一切资产,黄金、石油、美债、股票,大家只要现金,尤其是只要美元。海外的崩盘势必波及A股,外资的后院失火,必然导致其需要抛售其他资产去救火。<strong>美元作为结算货币,虹吸效应就此存在,尽管美联储降息放水,美元依然逆天般强势,人民币或挑战前期新低。</strong></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/143/w550h393/20200319/d8d2-iqyrykv6667151.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/144/w550h394/20200319/0017-iqyrykv6667204.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/142/w550h392/20200319/7422-iqyrykv6667230.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/142/w550h392/20200319/0581-iqyrykv6667283.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/145/w550h395/20200319/2d7e-iqyrykv6666473.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p> 2020年2月,美国的失业率为3.5%,历史低位。现在,<strong>可以肯定的是,无论疫情能否很快控制,经济的负反馈已经开始了,如果疫情控制的时间很长,美国的失业率或将挑战历史记录。</strong></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/114/w550h364/20200319/a950-iqyrykv6666509.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p> <strong>这是见证历史的时刻。</strong>有一点是正确的,历史从来不会这次不一样,这里一定会存在黄金坑,只是没有人知道,这个坑到底有多深。不绝望,但不幻想,控制好自己的仓位,不要加杠杆一把梭,活下去。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/193/w550h443/20200319/0a5c-iqyrykv6666545.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/542/w550h792/20200319/09d6-iqyrykv6666574.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p> 有时候想想,市场就是这么富有戏剧性。曾经想过许多次,美股十年牛市将以什么样的方式终结。<strong>利率如此低,股票的估值也不算贵,到底要怎么终结?</strong></p>\n<p> 而这只狡猾的病毒,对这种状态几乎是绝杀。</p>\n<p> 市场享受低利率环境太久,利息成本如此之低,不借钱是傻子。融资成本这么低,即使营收偶尔有波动,也是能应付过去的。谁曾想,一只病毒,竟然抹去大量的需求,让各行各业的现金流在同一时间集中断掉。</p>\n<p> <strong>危机无论以多少种形式出现,其本质都是高杠杆被打爆清算。</strong></p>\n<p> 市场忘记了,高负债始终是一种脆弱状态,无论利率成本多么低。</p>\n<p> 苍天饶过谁!</p>\n<p><span>免责声明:自媒体综合提供的内容均源自自媒体,版权归原作者所有,转载请联系原作者并获许可。文章观点仅代表作者本人,不代表<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>立场。若内容涉及投资建议,仅供参考勿作为投资依据。投资有风险,入市需谨慎。</span></p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>苍天饶过谁,华尔街到底在恐惧什么?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n苍天饶过谁,华尔街到底在恐惧什么?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-19 21:46 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-03-19/doc-iimxxsth0344427.shtml><strong>新浪财经-自媒体综合</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原创 冥王星 格隆汇APP\n 作者 | 冥王星\n 数据支持 | 勾股大数据\n 当疫情刚发生的时候,绝大多数人都把它当一次短期事件处理,在投资记忆里,这类事件最终会过去,所有的下砸都会变成黄金坑。但走到今天,可以看出,它不是一次类911事件,而是类似一场战争,并且是一场全面的战争,在世界各地爆发。\n\n 只有战争期间,我们的需求才会被极大地压缩,只需要面包和医疗。绝大多数的需求消失了,消失的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-03-19/doc-iimxxsth0344427.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37d43f47ff4637f33c2675f14c1cc937","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BA":"波音","SH":"标普500反向ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","DOG":"道指反向ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-03-19/doc-iimxxsth0344427.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2020645161","content_text":"原创 冥王星 格隆汇APP\n 作者 | 冥王星\n 数据支持 | 勾股大数据\n 当疫情刚发生的时候,绝大多数人都把它当一次短期事件处理,在投资记忆里,这类事件最终会过去,所有的下砸都会变成黄金坑。但走到今天,可以看出,它不是一次类911事件,而是类似一场战争,并且是一场全面的战争,在世界各地爆发。\n\n 只有战争期间,我们的需求才会被极大地压缩,只需要面包和医疗。绝大多数的需求消失了,消失的时间会持续多久目前仍然是未知的。在这个未知的时间里,除了少数行业外,其他各行各业都将面临一个问题,现金流断了。我们很快会在一季度里见识到这一冲击,一些惊掉下巴的数据将出现。\n\n\n\n 我们社会的运行,受各种契约约束,这些契约并不会因为经济的停摆而暂停。企业要支付工资、租金、利息,个人要偿还房贷、车贷。任何一个人,都无法凭其良心阻挡契约的滚滚车轮;任何一个强大的政府,都不能对所有契约按下暂停键,中国不能,欧美更不可能。当契约不能正常被执行,暴力的去契约就来临。\n\n 大规模的裁员是任何一家公司,尤其是大公司不愿意面对的,它既伤公司声誉,又引起市场恐慌猜疑。所以,大规模裁员不会立即发生,公司会用自己的账面现金撑着,也许就撑到了病毒消失。但是,多年的低利率环境,为了自己和股东的利益,公司管理层进行了大量负债回购,并且回购到几乎变态的地步。美国许多企业从账面上看,是资不抵债,比如麦当劳。\n\n 美国的企业文化里,第一准则是为股东创造价值,在长期的低利率环境里,大量负债回购,账面没有留下多少现金。这一机制运行良好的前提是岁月静好。当然,由于利率低,企业再融资容易,即使碰上经济衰退,凭着低息环境和自己依旧会有的营业收入(哪怕下滑),也可以撑得过去。打个比方说,低利率环境下,负债回购,没留下多少现金,企业预设了即使经济波动3个方差,也能存活。但要命的是,这次是一个4个标准差外的特殊群体事件发生了。\n\n 不是一个行业,不是一家企业,是大量的企业都发现,自己的账面现金不够。为了生存下去,为了以防更恶化的形势,许多企业冲到银行,把自己的信贷额度提完,确保自己的流动性。我们看到的,飞机制造巨头波音提了138亿美元,芯片制造商美光提完了25亿美元,欧洲航空租赁巨头Aercap提完了40亿美元,博彩运营商Penn提完剩下的4.3亿美元,嘉年华邮轮提完30亿美元。听说,波音已经刷爆了自己的信用卡,濒临破产,波音最近每晚都是一二十个点的跌幅,千亿美元的波音,只几个晚上,变成了500多亿美元。\n\n 银行的准备金很快会被打爆。2014年以来,美联储逐渐退出QE,并于2017年开始缩表,但美国政府发债有增无减。随着美联储的甩锅,吃债的压力就落到了银行身上。美国一级交易商银行持有美债的规模节节高升,超额准备金不断下降,这限制了银行提供信贷的能力。\n 一级交易商银行净持有美债的头寸\n\n (来源:纽约联储)\n\n 2020年3月16日,美联储等不及常规的FOMC会议了,将联邦基准利率降到0,并且推出7000亿购债计划(新一轮QE)。许多人称美联储吓崩了市场,其实真实是美联储看到了情况的严重性。再不行动,银行的准备金枯竭,短融市场的利率将暴动。2020年3月17日,美联储再推出“商业票据融资机制(CPFF)”,直接下场买票据,向实体企业注入流动性。\n\n 但是,影响的范围是如此广泛,这么多企业同一时间失血,美联储注入流动性也只能支撑一时。财政刺激政策也不会有太大作用,传统的财政刺激,是通过减税,或者政府购买,一层层导下去,比如政府购买增加A的收入,A收入增加加大需求从而增加B的收入,一层层下去,这是财政的杠杆效应。但是,这次棘手在于,这只病毒阻碍了杠杆效应的发挥,政府减税也好,发钱也好,大量的需求仍然无法被激活,这些领域的企业仍然无法产生现金流。\n\n 解铃还需系铃人,中国以牺牲经济的方式,停摆两个月,打了一场艰难的围歼战,目前看来是相当有成效的,国内多地已经持续多日无境内新增了。欧美国家,早期因各种原因,错失了战机,目前来看,即使大家开始恐慌,减少活动,结束恐怕还在两周之上。这个期间,经济的停摆所导致的流动性危机,还将继续蔓延于资本市场,谁会是第一个倒下的巨头?波音、航空、邮轮? \n\n\n 资本市场的杠杆又将放大这一恐慌,2020年3月18日传出的桥水爆仓即是一个证明(事后证明是假消息)。最近,市场开始抛售了一切资产,黄金、石油、美债、股票,大家只要现金,尤其是只要美元。海外的崩盘势必波及A股,外资的后院失火,必然导致其需要抛售其他资产去救火。美元作为结算货币,虹吸效应就此存在,尽管美联储降息放水,美元依然逆天般强势,人民币或挑战前期新低。\n\n\n\n\n\n 2020年2月,美国的失业率为3.5%,历史低位。现在,可以肯定的是,无论疫情能否很快控制,经济的负反馈已经开始了,如果疫情控制的时间很长,美国的失业率或将挑战历史记录。\n\n 这是见证历史的时刻。有一点是正确的,历史从来不会这次不一样,这里一定会存在黄金坑,只是没有人知道,这个坑到底有多深。不绝望,但不幻想,控制好自己的仓位,不要加杠杆一把梭,活下去。\n\n\n 有时候想想,市场就是这么富有戏剧性。曾经想过许多次,美股十年牛市将以什么样的方式终结。利率如此低,股票的估值也不算贵,到底要怎么终结?\n 而这只狡猾的病毒,对这种状态几乎是绝杀。\n 市场享受低利率环境太久,利息成本如此之低,不借钱是傻子。融资成本这么低,即使营收偶尔有波动,也是能应付过去的。谁曾想,一只病毒,竟然抹去大量的需求,让各行各业的现金流在同一时间集中断掉。\n 危机无论以多少种形式出现,其本质都是高杠杆被打爆清算。\n 市场忘记了,高负债始终是一种脆弱状态,无论利率成本多么低。\n 苍天饶过谁!\n免责声明:自媒体综合提供的内容均源自自媒体,版权归原作者所有,转载请联系原作者并获许可。文章观点仅代表作者本人,不代表新浪立场。若内容涉及投资建议,仅供参考勿作为投资依据。投资有风险,入市需谨慎。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964962818,"gmtCreate":1584117627334,"gmtModify":1704353210174,"author":{"id":"3481146912567379","authorId":"3481146912567379","name":"挂空挡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8513d9293329a7fe9feceb08fbb53649","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a> 完蛋啦!大盘往下跌的情形我只在港片《大时代》里面见过,现在真是见到真儿张了!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a> 完蛋啦!大盘往下跌的情形我只在港片《大时代》里面见过,现在真是见到真儿张了!","text":"$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 完蛋啦!大盘往下跌的情形我只在港片《大时代》里面见过,现在真是见到真儿张了!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964962818","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}