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概率股
2020-04-27
$拼多多(PDD)$
对pdd利好?
概率股
2020-04-04
下一个是某多多吗
谁会是下一个瑞幸?看这四点就可以了
概率股
2020-03-28
$Zoom(ZM)$
搜不到了哈哈哈
概率股
2020-03-25
$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$
20块我来接盘
概率股
2020-03-12
$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$
20块我来抄底[难过]
概率股
2020-03-11
$拼多多(PDD)$
请开始你的表演
概率股
2020-03-09
$拼多多(PDD)$
这种拉法,准备要大规模割韭菜了吧
概率股
2020-03-09
$三倍做多标普500ETF(UPRO)$
比卖单多5毛片都买不进去?
@老虎专刊
@小虎周报
@小虎活动
概率股
2019-05-30
$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 4块我接盘
概率股
2019-04-22
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 没事不写注释是政治正确的
概率股
2019-04-22
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 源码事情应该会继续发酵一段时间[惊讶]
概率股
2019-04-18
$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$vix主链涨了这么多,这个怎么没什么动静的样子?[疑问][疑问]
概率股
2019-04-12
$标普500ETF(SPY)$这盘前两次拉到昨收怎么回事
概率股
2019-04-03
$老虎证券(TIGR)$要跌了
概率股
2019-03-25
$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ 想哭哭
概率股
2019-03-08
抄什么底,做空呀
@剑桥奶茶大战明州强东:$京东(JD)$现在可以抄底了吗
概率股
2019-02-28
$京东(JD)$大头拉高出完货,剩下就是看散户表演
概率股
2019-02-02
下周又一波冷空气
$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ 下周又是一波强冷空气南下,虽然没有强关系,结合这两天跌这么厉害,周六日不开盘,不怕死的上车了
下周又一波冷空气
概率股
2019-02-01
$拼多多(PDD)$刚刚评级持有的多了一家,看来是可以空了
概率股
2019-01-31
$微博(WB)$FB涨了为什么你也跟着涨了?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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21:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"谁会是下一个瑞幸?看这四点就可以了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101386061","media":"远川商业评论","summary":"瑞幸所谓的「民族企业」,从来都只是披着羊皮的狼人杀。","content":"<p>作者:任小酒、姚书恒</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>这场戏,怎么会这么快就演不下去了?</p><p>4月2日瑞幸自爆造假账,2019第二季度到第四季度总销售额夸大22亿人民币,美股应声下跌<b>80%</b>,一度触发熔断,暂停交易。中概股也跟着陪葬:蛋壳、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、房天下等50多家跌成狗。而今天的瑞幸一早却被爆单,网友生怕在倒闭前没法兑换最后一张3.8折的优惠券。</p><p>而此前浑水(Muddy)发布了瑞幸89页的做空报告之后,瑞幸还云淡风轻地否认了一切。不仅如此,一个月后瑞幸CEO钱治亚登上了《2020胡润全球白手起家女富豪榜》,凭借120亿元身价位列第42位。胡润这榜单,排的不应该是白手起家,而是「最佳圈钱」。</p><p>瑞幸到纳斯达克敲钟还不满一年,成立18个月就跑去上市,市值直接飙到<b>42.5亿美元</b>,成为2019年纳斯达克IPO融资规模最大的亚洲公司。</p><p>一</p><p>瑞幸这幕高潮迭起的大戏剧本,这就走到了尾声?</p><p>瑞幸这种资本套现局,陆正耀实在太娴熟了。</p><p><b>瑞幸模式,完全是神州模式的Ctrl C+Ctrl V。</b>陆正耀在做瑞幸咖啡董事长之前,是神州优车的大股东。瑞幸在天使轮融资的时候,陆正耀就是投资人。而CEO钱治亚则是原来<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00699\">神州租车</a>的COO,跟着陆正耀干了十余年。更不必提,瑞幸的CMO杨飞,和瑞幸公关团队也是来自神州租车。</p><p>不仅是管理层,资本也都原封不动的搬过来。从大钲资本、愉悦资本和君联资本,都是在神州系里跟着陆正耀尝过甜头的「自己人」。</p><p><b>套路就分五步走:找风口,拉融资,狂撒币,IPO,最后挥一挥衣袖,套现离场。</b>明眼人都能看懂的局,让瑞幸在纳斯达克的舞台起起伏伏演了九个月,被浑水收到的一份报告给戳破了。</p><p>再回头来看看浑水收到的那份89页的调查报告,一共找了1500个人(92名全职,1418名兼职),对1832家瑞幸咖啡门店监控,每天售出的商品数精确到个位数。没有内部人士,很难做到这么细。而递给浑水报告的人,或许跟瑞幸局内人士撇不开关系。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2df4181a9f37ec711dca411cfa6fbea5\" /></p><p>陆正耀的朋友圈,依然晒着马拉松记录</p><p>而就在几天前,瑞幸股票被爆出有人提前疯狂卖出2200万股,看跌期权成交量暴增两万多手。神州系得高层们已经准备拉帘子落幕了,这戏不好演。收摊走人前,还顺带暴跌赚个钱,嚼得骨头都不剩。</p><p>瑞幸所谓的「民族企业」,从来都只是披着羊皮的狼人杀。</p><p>转身离开得找个接锅侠,COO刘剑很荣幸地接下这场大戏的重任。瑞幸一年收入不到26亿人民币,COO一人抗下22亿的造假大锅。<br /><b>不知道刘健拿到怎样的利益交换,才愿意眼睁睁看着董事长和CEO拿钱走人,独自承担这份「天降大任」?</b></p><p>然而这一个瑞幸倒下了,下一个瑞幸还会远吗?</p><p>二</p><p>太阳底下没有新鲜事,瑞幸的陨落只不过是「崩盘教科书」的新一页而已。</p><p>为了让你可以保住自己的押金、花光收集的优惠券、停下买会员的手、<b>提前识别下一个「瑞幸」</b>,我们总结了崩盘前夜的四大特征:1、融资狂人,2、画饼充饥,3、优惠空前,4、同一把刀。</p><p><b>1、融资狂人。看上去高增长,但总需要融资的公司,需要高度警惕。</b></p><p>按照瑞幸之前的财报,2019年三季度收入15.42亿元,同比增长540.2%;门店增长到3680家,比2018年第三季度末的1189家增加了209.5%。</p><p>门店增2倍,收入增长5.4倍。形势一片大好。</p><p>但与此同时,瑞幸从未停止融资。在上市前,它就通过股权融资7.5亿美元,以各种方式借贷12.85亿元人民币。到了2019年,甚至要把自己的咖啡机、奶箱拿去抵押换来4500万元。就在今年初,一边宣称要做无人零售,一边又增发了1200万股,还发行了4亿美元的可转换债。</p><p>作为A股资深韭菜,这种招数实在见得太多了。乐视、康得新、康美药业,哪一个暴雷前不是营收大幅增长,但却需要不停融资的?出现这种情况,要么财务造假,要么现金流已经差到需要借钱来续命的地步了。</p><p><b>2、画饼充饥。只谈需求庞大,不谈竞争惨烈的都是耍流氓。</b></p><p>瑞幸用来支撑自己「亏损换增长」故事的逻辑无非就是:当咖啡的销量足够大、品牌足够知名,对咖啡豆、牛奶等原料的采购量大,获客成本、经营成本就可以降低。</p><p>不幸的是,这个逻辑是可以轻松证伪的。</p><p>廉价咖啡,或者说比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>便宜的咖啡,当然有需求,但能做到这么便宜,一定需要非常低的成本。一个新创品牌要在短时间内建立生产能力、销售渠道、广告投放,不可能做到低成本,企业很可能在具备持续盈利能力前就倒下了。</p><p>事实上,卖便宜咖啡是属于711、罗森、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">麦当劳</a>们的生意,因为它们几乎不需要新增人手、店面、广告,直接在店里放两部咖啡机就可以开卖了。</p><p>因此,只关注需求侧的巨大增长潜力,忽视供给侧生产和产能快速提升以及带来的竞争格局恶化,是一个经典的to SBVC的陷阱。</p><p><b>3、优惠空前。产品优惠力度越来越大,很可能是企业快倒闭的前兆。</b></p><p>瑞幸的打折券、优惠力度不可谓不猛。注册App第一杯饮品免单、买5送5,买10送10,买2赠1,充1送1,甚至每周抽奖送500万现金。以致于有网友调侃,高于3折以上的券都贵了,只喝1.8折的咖啡。</p><p>花多眼乱、不断加码的优惠政策,这个剧情我们也不陌生,上一家这么大规模送温暖的公司叫乐视。买会员送手机,买电视送会员,充500送500,充1000送2000等等,本质就是公司卖产品的收入已经不足以支撑日常运转了,需求提前把未来的收入挪到现在来填补亏空。</p><p><b>4、同一把刀。近年快速上市的企业,背后往往由同一批投资方催熟。</b></p><p>美国作为头号经济大国,现在GDP年增速也就2-3%;中国经历了30年的高增长,近年第一次经历了GDP降速到6%,就不断有企业破产、现金流断裂、老板跑路的新闻了。</p><p>所以,在这种经济大环境下,还能轻易获得高速增长的公司、行业,背后几乎都有资本在「催熟」。就在瑞幸暴雷前的几天,3月27日,刘二海辞去了瑞幸的审计委员会委员职位。</p><p>刘二海就是瑞幸快速上市的主要推手之一。在联想旗下的君联资本工作期间,投出了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BITA\">易车网</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RENN\">人人网</a>、神州租车、智联招聘、乐逗游戏5家上市公司;创立愉悦资本后,又投了蔚来汽车、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">优信</a>二有车、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DNK\">蛋壳公寓</a>、摩拜单车、瑞幸咖啡。</p><p>类似的,估值或市值大幅缩水的WeWork、Uber、OYO、滴滴,背后也是同一个主要投资方:软银。</p><p>在镰刀的眼中,没有单车汽车咖啡酒店,只有可以快速催熟的韭菜。</p><p><b>尾声</b></p><p>2019年5月17日,瑞幸咖啡在美国纳斯达克上市。</p><p>当时在纳斯达克交易中心楼前,瑞幸在巨型LED屏幕上打了一个广告,广告上写着:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b919ad17cd7f4b4fb8d05103905d51\" /></p><p>中国咖啡和美国咖啡比,差距在哪?</p><p>下面自言自语接了一句:</p><p>差在自信。</p><p>这是自信被黑得最惨的一次。</p>","source":"lsy1585921707636","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谁会是下一个瑞幸?看这四点就可以了</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谁会是下一个瑞幸?看这四点就可以了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-03 21:52 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CyPIm_F7IH8VLOD8JmjAog><strong>远川商业评论</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者:任小酒、姚书恒瑞幸咖啡这场戏,怎么会这么快就演不下去了?4月2日瑞幸自爆造假账,2019第二季度到第四季度总销售额夸大22亿人民币,美股应声下跌80%,一度触发熔断,暂停交易。中概股也跟着陪葬:蛋壳、蔚来、房天下等50多家跌成狗。而今天的瑞幸一早却被爆单,网友生怕在倒闭前没法兑换最后一张3.8折的优惠券。而此前浑水(Muddy)发布了瑞幸89页的做空报告之后,瑞幸还云淡风轻地否认了一切。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CyPIm_F7IH8VLOD8JmjAog\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914e82077d17b812de59aaa0870bec6","relate_stocks":{"LK":"瑞幸咖啡"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CyPIm_F7IH8VLOD8JmjAog","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101386061","content_text":"作者:任小酒、姚书恒瑞幸咖啡这场戏,怎么会这么快就演不下去了?4月2日瑞幸自爆造假账,2019第二季度到第四季度总销售额夸大22亿人民币,美股应声下跌80%,一度触发熔断,暂停交易。中概股也跟着陪葬:蛋壳、蔚来、房天下等50多家跌成狗。而今天的瑞幸一早却被爆单,网友生怕在倒闭前没法兑换最后一张3.8折的优惠券。而此前浑水(Muddy)发布了瑞幸89页的做空报告之后,瑞幸还云淡风轻地否认了一切。不仅如此,一个月后瑞幸CEO钱治亚登上了《2020胡润全球白手起家女富豪榜》,凭借120亿元身价位列第42位。胡润这榜单,排的不应该是白手起家,而是「最佳圈钱」。瑞幸到纳斯达克敲钟还不满一年,成立18个月就跑去上市,市值直接飙到42.5亿美元,成为2019年纳斯达克IPO融资规模最大的亚洲公司。一瑞幸这幕高潮迭起的大戏剧本,这就走到了尾声?瑞幸这种资本套现局,陆正耀实在太娴熟了。瑞幸模式,完全是神州模式的Ctrl C+Ctrl V。陆正耀在做瑞幸咖啡董事长之前,是神州优车的大股东。瑞幸在天使轮融资的时候,陆正耀就是投资人。而CEO钱治亚则是原来神州租车的COO,跟着陆正耀干了十余年。更不必提,瑞幸的CMO杨飞,和瑞幸公关团队也是来自神州租车。不仅是管理层,资本也都原封不动的搬过来。从大钲资本、愉悦资本和君联资本,都是在神州系里跟着陆正耀尝过甜头的「自己人」。套路就分五步走:找风口,拉融资,狂撒币,IPO,最后挥一挥衣袖,套现离场。明眼人都能看懂的局,让瑞幸在纳斯达克的舞台起起伏伏演了九个月,被浑水收到的一份报告给戳破了。再回头来看看浑水收到的那份89页的调查报告,一共找了1500个人(92名全职,1418名兼职),对1832家瑞幸咖啡门店监控,每天售出的商品数精确到个位数。没有内部人士,很难做到这么细。而递给浑水报告的人,或许跟瑞幸局内人士撇不开关系。陆正耀的朋友圈,依然晒着马拉松记录而就在几天前,瑞幸股票被爆出有人提前疯狂卖出2200万股,看跌期权成交量暴增两万多手。神州系得高层们已经准备拉帘子落幕了,这戏不好演。收摊走人前,还顺带暴跌赚个钱,嚼得骨头都不剩。瑞幸所谓的「民族企业」,从来都只是披着羊皮的狼人杀。转身离开得找个接锅侠,COO刘剑很荣幸地接下这场大戏的重任。瑞幸一年收入不到26亿人民币,COO一人抗下22亿的造假大锅。不知道刘健拿到怎样的利益交换,才愿意眼睁睁看着董事长和CEO拿钱走人,独自承担这份「天降大任」?然而这一个瑞幸倒下了,下一个瑞幸还会远吗?二太阳底下没有新鲜事,瑞幸的陨落只不过是「崩盘教科书」的新一页而已。为了让你可以保住自己的押金、花光收集的优惠券、停下买会员的手、提前识别下一个「瑞幸」,我们总结了崩盘前夜的四大特征:1、融资狂人,2、画饼充饥,3、优惠空前,4、同一把刀。1、融资狂人。看上去高增长,但总需要融资的公司,需要高度警惕。按照瑞幸之前的财报,2019年三季度收入15.42亿元,同比增长540.2%;门店增长到3680家,比2018年第三季度末的1189家增加了209.5%。门店增2倍,收入增长5.4倍。形势一片大好。但与此同时,瑞幸从未停止融资。在上市前,它就通过股权融资7.5亿美元,以各种方式借贷12.85亿元人民币。到了2019年,甚至要把自己的咖啡机、奶箱拿去抵押换来4500万元。就在今年初,一边宣称要做无人零售,一边又增发了1200万股,还发行了4亿美元的可转换债。作为A股资深韭菜,这种招数实在见得太多了。乐视、康得新、康美药业,哪一个暴雷前不是营收大幅增长,但却需要不停融资的?出现这种情况,要么财务造假,要么现金流已经差到需要借钱来续命的地步了。2、画饼充饥。只谈需求庞大,不谈竞争惨烈的都是耍流氓。瑞幸用来支撑自己「亏损换增长」故事的逻辑无非就是:当咖啡的销量足够大、品牌足够知名,对咖啡豆、牛奶等原料的采购量大,获客成本、经营成本就可以降低。不幸的是,这个逻辑是可以轻松证伪的。廉价咖啡,或者说比星巴克便宜的咖啡,当然有需求,但能做到这么便宜,一定需要非常低的成本。一个新创品牌要在短时间内建立生产能力、销售渠道、广告投放,不可能做到低成本,企业很可能在具备持续盈利能力前就倒下了。事实上,卖便宜咖啡是属于711、罗森、麦当劳们的生意,因为它们几乎不需要新增人手、店面、广告,直接在店里放两部咖啡机就可以开卖了。因此,只关注需求侧的巨大增长潜力,忽视供给侧生产和产能快速提升以及带来的竞争格局恶化,是一个经典的to SBVC的陷阱。3、优惠空前。产品优惠力度越来越大,很可能是企业快倒闭的前兆。瑞幸的打折券、优惠力度不可谓不猛。注册App第一杯饮品免单、买5送5,买10送10,买2赠1,充1送1,甚至每周抽奖送500万现金。以致于有网友调侃,高于3折以上的券都贵了,只喝1.8折的咖啡。花多眼乱、不断加码的优惠政策,这个剧情我们也不陌生,上一家这么大规模送温暖的公司叫乐视。买会员送手机,买电视送会员,充500送500,充1000送2000等等,本质就是公司卖产品的收入已经不足以支撑日常运转了,需求提前把未来的收入挪到现在来填补亏空。4、同一把刀。近年快速上市的企业,背后往往由同一批投资方催熟。美国作为头号经济大国,现在GDP年增速也就2-3%;中国经历了30年的高增长,近年第一次经历了GDP降速到6%,就不断有企业破产、现金流断裂、老板跑路的新闻了。所以,在这种经济大环境下,还能轻易获得高速增长的公司、行业,背后几乎都有资本在「催熟」。就在瑞幸暴雷前的几天,3月27日,刘二海辞去了瑞幸的审计委员会委员职位。刘二海就是瑞幸快速上市的主要推手之一。在联想旗下的君联资本工作期间,投出了易车网、人人网、神州租车、智联招聘、乐逗游戏5家上市公司;创立愉悦资本后,又投了蔚来汽车、优信二有车、蛋壳公寓、摩拜单车、瑞幸咖啡。类似的,估值或市值大幅缩水的WeWork、Uber、OYO、滴滴,背后也是同一个主要投资方:软银。在镰刀的眼中,没有单车汽车咖啡酒店,只有可以快速催熟的韭菜。尾声2019年5月17日,瑞幸咖啡在美国纳斯达克上市。当时在纳斯达克交易中心楼前,瑞幸在巨型LED屏幕上打了一个广告,广告上写着:中国咖啡和美国咖啡比,差距在哪?下面自言自语接了一句:差在自信。这是自信被黑得最惨的一次。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":929218741,"gmtCreate":1585361762583,"gmtModify":1704358000380,"author":{"id":"3480593924813897","authorId":"3480593924813897","name":"概率股","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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