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Marvin喵
2023-01-13
@怪兽充电
美国通胀降温了,怎么还有人支持加息50个基点?
Marvin喵
2021-03-25
$泡泡玛特(09992)$
我一个直男,为了妹子买了至少一千块钱的这玩意,实体类精神消费品,还是很有空间的,不要小看这些玩意
Marvin喵
2021-03-09
$理想汽车(LI)$
跌倒8块再说
Marvin喵
2021-03-04
$快手-W(01024)$
解禁还得跌吧?
Marvin喵
2021-01-18
$小米集团-W(01810)$
加油
Marvin喵
2020-12-14
$小米集团-W(01810)$
发生了肾么事?
Marvin喵
2020-12-08
$小米集团-W(01810)$
前两日就是让大家上车吧,加油加油
Marvin喵
2020-11-25
$小米集团-W(01810)$
拔河比赛,神仙打架么?
Marvin喵
2020-11-24
$小米集团-W(01810)$
慌啥,看看增长率再跑啊
Marvin喵
2020-11-17
$小米集团-W(01810)$
慌啥,搞不懂
Marvin喵
2020-11-11
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
买300减40?
Marvin喵
2020-09-09
$小米集团-W(01810)$
哈哈哈,还能涨,哟
Marvin喵
2020-09-03
$小米集团-W(01810)$
不等到翻倍都要跑?太怂了
Marvin喵
2020-08-19
$小米集团-W(01810)$
看看美团的市盈率,再看看小米,难道不是被低估了?
Marvin喵
2020-08-18
$美团点评-W(03690)$
这个市盈率也太可怕了,泡沫吹上了天啊
Marvin喵
2020-07-14
$小米集团-W(01810)$
要涨起来了?
Marvin喵
2020-07-01
$小米集团-W(01810)$
敢不敢再涨20%,让大家解套
Marvin喵
2020-06-08
$小米集团-W(01810)$
来了老弟?
Marvin喵
2020-06-08
$美团点评-W(03690)$
老乡别跑啊
Marvin喵
2020-06-05
$美团点评-W(03690)$
老乡快跑啊
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4088761547333080\">@怪兽充电 </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4088761547333080\">@怪兽充电 </a>","text":"@怪兽充电","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626939140","repostId":"2303640843","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2303640843","pubTimestamp":1673566382,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2303640843?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-13 07:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国通胀降温了,怎么还有人支持加息50个基点?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2303640843","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"期货市场all in放慢加息,是不是“傻乐观”?","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>这是2月FOMC会议前最后一份CPI数据,多位美联储官员和“新美联储通讯社”等重磅分析师都认可为加息放慢至25个基点铺路。但数据真这么完美吗?为何巴克莱和高盛资管等不少主流机构仍维持加息50个基点的预测不变?期货市场all in放慢加息,是不是“傻乐观”?</blockquote><p>1月12日周四,美国发布至少连续第三个月增长放缓的CPI消费者通胀数据,提振欧美股市等风险资产表现。对美联储有可能进一步放慢加息步伐的市场预期,压低美元和美债收益率,同时也令黄金升破1900美元整数位关口,再创逾八个月新高,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>则创七个月新低。</p><p>迄今为止,在疫情期间维持两年零利率的美联储,已将基准利率大幅上调了425个基点至十五年最高,是1980年代以来最激进步伐。在去年中旬起连续四次加息75个基点后,12月FOMC将加息放缓至50个基点,基准利率升至4.25%-4.5%区间。</p><p>商品价格的进一步回落,预计将成为2023年核心CPI同比数据快速下降的主要驱动力。但美国人消费支出从商品轮转到服务的趋势,继续对通胀构成压力。今年的通胀率可能下降多少,以及美联储暴力加息是否最终令美国陷入衰退,仍存在很多不确定性。</p><p><b>美国CPI完全符合预期,名义数据环比三年来首次转负,与核心数据同比增速均一年新低</b></p><p>最新的名义与核心CPI通胀数据均完全符合市场预期,其中:</p><blockquote>去年12月的名义CPI环比跌0.1%,为三年来首次环比转负增长,创2020年4月美国新冠疫情爆发以来的最大跌幅,此前已展示通胀降温迹象,去年11月环比涨0.1%,10月环比涨0.4%。</blockquote><blockquote>名义CPI仍同比増6.5%,为2021年10月以来的一年多最低增速,低于11月前值的同比增7.1%,也低于去年6月的峰值同比增幅9.1%。</blockquote><blockquote>抛去波动加大的食品和能源后,核心CPI在12月环比增0.3%,尽管高于11月前值的环比增0.2%,但低于去年8月和9月时的环比增0.6%。</blockquote><blockquote>核心CPI同比增5.7%,为2021年12月以来一年最低,低于11月前值的增6%。在截至去年12月的三个月内,核心CPI的年化增长率为3.1%,也是一年多来最低,较6月峰值7.9%砍半。</blockquote><p><b>12月名义CPI环比转跌“最大贡献因素”是汽油价格下跌,被分析师质疑无法持续</b></p><p>细究这份通胀数据可知,<b>名义CPI环比转跌“最大贡献因素”是美国汽油价格下跌</b>,带动12月的能源成本环比下降4.5%,这也是为何排除能源价格后,核心CPI按月继续增长的原因。</p><p><b>在作为美国通胀主要驱动因素的能源成本中</b>,所有类型的汽油价格环比下跌9.4%,同比也转为负增长至跌1.5%;燃料油环比跌价16.6%,创1990年2月以来最大跌幅;能源大宗商品环比跌价9.4%,但电力环比涨1%,天然气环比涨3%。整体能源成本月度下跌,但仍比一年前高出7.3%。</p><p>同时,在12月CPI其他构成因素中:</p><blockquote>食品价格环比上涨0.3%,但家庭食品价格上涨0.2%,为2021年3月以来最低增速;</blockquote><blockquote>约占CPI指数1/3比重、衡量拥有或租赁房屋的住房成本再次环比大幅上涨0.8%,同比涨7.5%;</blockquote><blockquote>二手车价格环比跌2.5%,为连续第六个月下降,同比跌8.8%,新车环比降价0.1%;</blockquote><blockquote>服装价格环比涨0.5%,为2022年6月来最高;</blockquote><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健服务</a>价格环比涨0.1%,为三个月里首次上涨;</blockquote><blockquote>机票环比降价3.1%,为2020年8月以来最大跌幅,仍同比上涨28.5%;交通服务环比涨价0.2%,仍比一年前高出14.6%。</blockquote><p><b>二手车跌价推动核心商品通胀持续降温,住房成本超预期增长,核心服务通胀是焦点</b></p><p>有分析指出,不包括食品和能源在内的商品价格在去年12月环比下跌0.3%,由二手车领跌。而约占整体CPI指数1/3的最大服务组成部分——住房成本环比增幅较11月有所加速。</p><p>数据显示,住房成本、食品和服装仍是通胀热点。由于产品供应增加和需求减少,核心商品通胀最近几个月已转为负值,服务业通胀仍居高不下,由就业市场趋紧和劳动力成本不断上升所致。</p><p>不过,排除能源服务以及住房租金和业主等值成本的“服务业通胀指标”环比涨0.25%,高于11月的环比涨0.12%,但低于2022年月均0.5%的整体增速,转化后年率为3%,也低于全年水平。</p><p>自去年底以来,不包括住房成本的“核心服务”通胀指标(又被称为“超级核心通胀”supercore inflation)被美联储主席鲍威尔在内的央行官员评价为“特别重要”,因为其对劳动力成本格外敏感。<b>该指标的年率开始走低,被视为美联储收紧货币政策有效性的证明</b>。</p><p>同时,CPI数据中反映出的住房通胀与现实情况存在一定滞后性,正成为分析师们争论的关键领域。许多经济学家预计今年美国住房成本将大幅下跌,缓解通胀压力。</p><p><b>2月会议前最后一份CPI为放缓加息步伐铺路,期货市场对放松货币政策的押注与美联储相悖</b></p><p>这是美联储2月1日公布议息决议之前最后一份可供参考的CPI数据,与前几个月低于预期的读数相结合,显示出美国通胀正在放缓的更一致迹象,可能为进一步放缓加息步伐铺路。</p><p>多位美联储官员近期暗示,未来的利率路径“特别依赖经济数据”,特别是最新通胀的影响,对2月加息25还是50个基点持开放态度。</p><p>而美联储更喜欢的通胀指标——个人消费支出物价指数PCE的12月数据将于美东时间1月27日公布,与1月31日FOMC会议首日公布的第四季度就业成本指数,都是市场下一个焦点数据。</p><p>上周发布的美联储12月会议纪要显示,央行官员们担心投资者可能会低估他们将利率维持在较高水平的决心,从而导致“金融环境出现不必要的宽松”。</p><p>他们也大多表达了对通胀前景的持续担忧,尽管美联储预计PCE将在今年大幅放缓,但要到2025年才能接近其2%的通胀目标。美国消费者对服务的需求仍高涨,叠加劳动力供应吃紧,可能会继续对价格构成上行压力。</p><p><b>这就令期货市场的押注与美联储“点阵图”体现的官员利率展望之间,形成了对立的矛盾局面</b>。</p><p>华尔街见闻曾提到,12月CPI数据发布后,市场对美联储加息预期进一步“退烧”,互换合约市场的定价甚至预计有很小的可能在3月21至22日FOMC会议上完全不加息。</p><p>美国联邦基金利率期货交易市场预计,美联储2月加息25个基点的几率超过96%,一天前的预计几率不到77%。市场押注5月美国利率触及4.9%的峰值,美联储则预计利率触顶于5.1%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc0a5bfc23ff2f5ffbb243900a65d5d7\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>出于激进加息令美国经济步入衰退的担忧,衍生品投资者还认为今年下半年美联储两次降息共约50个基点,但鲍威尔在内的央行官员们正在竭力打消2023年会降息的市场预期。</p><p><b>多位联储高官和“新美联储通信社”等重磅分析师,支持2月加息放慢至25个基点</b></p><p>被称为“新美联储通讯社”的知名媒体记者Nick Timiraos今日撰文称,最新CPI数据令2月美联储加息进一步放缓至更传统的25个基点“板上钉钉”,理由是服务业通胀增速放缓。</p><p>在通胀数据不断改善的大背景下,放缓加息步伐可以避免造成不必要的就业和经济增长下滑。鲍威尔上个月也表示,美联储管理过度收紧政策之风险的最佳方式是最早从2月起加息更小幅度。</p><p>今年FOMC票委、费城联储主希拉克也在CPI数据发布后称,预计今年还有几次加息,但支持未来加息幅度都进一步放缓至25个基点,“一次性加息75个基点的日子已经结束了”。</p><p>新年以来,“大鹰派”、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德,以及在职期间永久票委、美联储理事鲍曼等都承认通胀指标正在降温,但也称美联储加息之路尚未完成。今年票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里上周的言论,似乎可以代表美联储内部共识:</p><blockquote>“虽然我认为现在明确宣布通胀已经见顶还为时过早,但我们看到越来越多的证据表明它可能已经见顶。我认为,至少在接下来的几次会议上继续加息是合适的,直到我们确信通胀已经见顶。”</blockquote><p>大多数华尔街分析师也都认可,至少短期内美联储会继续加息。<b>CPI通胀是美国经济降温的另一个迹象,会令美联储今年不会再激进加息,而是回归更传统的单次25个基点幅度</b>。但名义与和核心CPI同比增速仍是通胀目标的三倍,凸显了生活成本上升给美国家庭带来的持续负担。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>全球投资办公室的模型投资组合建设负责人Mike Loewengart,以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">穆迪</a>分析公司首席经济学家Mark Zandi都表示,今天的CPI数据标明通胀正朝着正确的方向发展,峰值可能即将到来,尽管名义CPI同比增6.5%依旧太高了,“我们还没有完全走出困境”。</p><p>瑞士百达财富管理的高级美国经济学家Thomas Costerg指出,服务业通胀趋势似乎正在减弱,这一美联储关注重点提升了2月加息幅度放缓至25个基点的可能性。彭博经济学家Anna Won也持相同观点,美国利率或在3月就达到5%的峰值,并在今年剩余时间内保持在该水平。</p><p><b>多重因素令不少主流投行维持2月鹰派加息50个基点不变,华尔街尚无统一意见</b></p><p>不过,由于12月CPI中的住房成本环比增幅高于预期(其占核心CPI的40%),令名义CPI环比转负的动因来自不可持续的汽油价格下跌,以及美国劳动力市场仍趋紧等因素,包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>和巴克莱在内的不少主流华尔街机构,仍维持2月连续第二次加息50个基点为“基线场景预测”。</p><p>道富<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/B73.SI\">环球投资</a>管理的首席经济学家Simona Mocuta称,通胀降温从汽油价格中得到的支持昙花一现,尽管趋势是有利的,但不能指望下一份报告同样好。</p><p>道明证券的全球利率策略主管Priya Misra也称,商品通胀和大宗商品跌价是通胀降温较容易实现的部分,“接下来更困难的部分是将服务通胀率持续降至2%”,也暗示通胀数据还可能恶化。</p><p>高盛资管的多资产解决方案联席首席投资官Maria Vassalou指出,核心CPI中住房成本的强劲表现,以及上周美国首申失业救济人数下降,仍在支持2月加息50个基点。</p><p>瑞讯银行的高级分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya认为,中国经济重新开放,将导致能源和大宗商品价格反弹,美国通胀可能不会在今年稳步降温,或促使美联储2月再度加息50个基点。</p><p>基于通胀通胀的黏性,毕马威首席经济学家Diane Swonk、巴克莱,以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">道富银行</a>欧洲、中东和非洲宏观战略主管Timothy Graf都维持2月加息50个基点的预期不变,尽管他们也承认加息25个基点的可能性在CPI数据后有所上升。其理由汇总如下:</p><blockquote>“与住房相关的服务通胀数据表明,通胀下降速度还不够快,无法满足满足美联储的要求。核心商品通缩和强劲的核心服务通胀之对立是未来主题。</blockquote><blockquote>鉴于美联储已经明确表示,将坚定兑现抑制通胀的承诺,他们认为这是一场马拉松,而不是短跑,最新CPI数据表明现在还不是放松政策的时候。</blockquote><blockquote>不过有理由相信,随着我们越来越接近本轮周期的终端利率,美联储加息步伐需要放慢,未来某次会议上将加息25个基点。对市场来说最重要的是峰值利率何在,而不是加息的步伐。”</blockquote><p><b>就算是支持2月加息25个基点的分析师,也无法排除加息50个基点的风险</b>。</p><p>Evercore ISI的Krishna Guha认为,美联储会尝试在2月加息25个基点时传递鹰派信号。Piper Sandler的全球政策研究主管Roberto Perli称,2月仍有加息50个基点的显著风险,“没有理由相信美联储改变了加息至超过5%的想法”,而这与期货市场今年降息的定价预期相悖。</p><p>美国资产值最大银行<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>的CEO戴蒙周二甚至称,美联储鹰派加息至6%的可能性达到50%,高于美联储12月“点阵图”的预期,理由是通胀会下降一点,但不会像人们预期的那样深跌。</p><p>担任票委的美联储理事Lisa Cook上周也称:“尽管最近出现了一些令人鼓舞的迹象,但通胀率仍然过高,这令人非常担忧,我会告诫大家,不要过分重视过去几份有利的月度通胀数据。” 这都增添了美联储2月到底能否加息进一步放缓的不确定性。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国通胀降温了,怎么还有人支持加息50个基点?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-13 07:33 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679742><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>这是2月FOMC会议前最后一份CPI数据,多位美联储官员和“新美联储通讯社”等重磅分析师都认可为加息放慢至25个基点铺路。但数据真这么完美吗?为何巴克莱和高盛资管等不少主流机构仍维持加息50个基点的预测不变?期货市场all in放慢加息,是不是“傻乐观”?1月12日周四,美国发布至少连续第三个月增长放缓的CPI消费者通胀数据,提振欧美股市等风险资产表现。对美联储有可能进一步放慢加息步伐的市场预期,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679742\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa63cdb22eaa1bc7d7de12c13f9e612","relate_stocks":{"CPI":"IQ Real Return ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","HSI":"恒生指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679742","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2303640843","content_text":"这是2月FOMC会议前最后一份CPI数据,多位美联储官员和“新美联储通讯社”等重磅分析师都认可为加息放慢至25个基点铺路。但数据真这么完美吗?为何巴克莱和高盛资管等不少主流机构仍维持加息50个基点的预测不变?期货市场all in放慢加息,是不是“傻乐观”?1月12日周四,美国发布至少连续第三个月增长放缓的CPI消费者通胀数据,提振欧美股市等风险资产表现。对美联储有可能进一步放慢加息步伐的市场预期,压低美元和美债收益率,同时也令黄金升破1900美元整数位关口,再创逾八个月新高,美元指数则创七个月新低。迄今为止,在疫情期间维持两年零利率的美联储,已将基准利率大幅上调了425个基点至十五年最高,是1980年代以来最激进步伐。在去年中旬起连续四次加息75个基点后,12月FOMC将加息放缓至50个基点,基准利率升至4.25%-4.5%区间。商品价格的进一步回落,预计将成为2023年核心CPI同比数据快速下降的主要驱动力。但美国人消费支出从商品轮转到服务的趋势,继续对通胀构成压力。今年的通胀率可能下降多少,以及美联储暴力加息是否最终令美国陷入衰退,仍存在很多不确定性。美国CPI完全符合预期,名义数据环比三年来首次转负,与核心数据同比增速均一年新低最新的名义与核心CPI通胀数据均完全符合市场预期,其中:去年12月的名义CPI环比跌0.1%,为三年来首次环比转负增长,创2020年4月美国新冠疫情爆发以来的最大跌幅,此前已展示通胀降温迹象,去年11月环比涨0.1%,10月环比涨0.4%。名义CPI仍同比増6.5%,为2021年10月以来的一年多最低增速,低于11月前值的同比增7.1%,也低于去年6月的峰值同比增幅9.1%。抛去波动加大的食品和能源后,核心CPI在12月环比增0.3%,尽管高于11月前值的环比增0.2%,但低于去年8月和9月时的环比增0.6%。核心CPI同比增5.7%,为2021年12月以来一年最低,低于11月前值的增6%。在截至去年12月的三个月内,核心CPI的年化增长率为3.1%,也是一年多来最低,较6月峰值7.9%砍半。12月名义CPI环比转跌“最大贡献因素”是汽油价格下跌,被分析师质疑无法持续细究这份通胀数据可知,名义CPI环比转跌“最大贡献因素”是美国汽油价格下跌,带动12月的能源成本环比下降4.5%,这也是为何排除能源价格后,核心CPI按月继续增长的原因。在作为美国通胀主要驱动因素的能源成本中,所有类型的汽油价格环比下跌9.4%,同比也转为负增长至跌1.5%;燃料油环比跌价16.6%,创1990年2月以来最大跌幅;能源大宗商品环比跌价9.4%,但电力环比涨1%,天然气环比涨3%。整体能源成本月度下跌,但仍比一年前高出7.3%。同时,在12月CPI其他构成因素中:食品价格环比上涨0.3%,但家庭食品价格上涨0.2%,为2021年3月以来最低增速;约占CPI指数1/3比重、衡量拥有或租赁房屋的住房成本再次环比大幅上涨0.8%,同比涨7.5%;二手车价格环比跌2.5%,为连续第六个月下降,同比跌8.8%,新车环比降价0.1%;服装价格环比涨0.5%,为2022年6月来最高;医疗保健服务价格环比涨0.1%,为三个月里首次上涨;机票环比降价3.1%,为2020年8月以来最大跌幅,仍同比上涨28.5%;交通服务环比涨价0.2%,仍比一年前高出14.6%。二手车跌价推动核心商品通胀持续降温,住房成本超预期增长,核心服务通胀是焦点有分析指出,不包括食品和能源在内的商品价格在去年12月环比下跌0.3%,由二手车领跌。而约占整体CPI指数1/3的最大服务组成部分——住房成本环比增幅较11月有所加速。数据显示,住房成本、食品和服装仍是通胀热点。由于产品供应增加和需求减少,核心商品通胀最近几个月已转为负值,服务业通胀仍居高不下,由就业市场趋紧和劳动力成本不断上升所致。不过,排除能源服务以及住房租金和业主等值成本的“服务业通胀指标”环比涨0.25%,高于11月的环比涨0.12%,但低于2022年月均0.5%的整体增速,转化后年率为3%,也低于全年水平。自去年底以来,不包括住房成本的“核心服务”通胀指标(又被称为“超级核心通胀”supercore inflation)被美联储主席鲍威尔在内的央行官员评价为“特别重要”,因为其对劳动力成本格外敏感。该指标的年率开始走低,被视为美联储收紧货币政策有效性的证明。同时,CPI数据中反映出的住房通胀与现实情况存在一定滞后性,正成为分析师们争论的关键领域。许多经济学家预计今年美国住房成本将大幅下跌,缓解通胀压力。2月会议前最后一份CPI为放缓加息步伐铺路,期货市场对放松货币政策的押注与美联储相悖这是美联储2月1日公布议息决议之前最后一份可供参考的CPI数据,与前几个月低于预期的读数相结合,显示出美国通胀正在放缓的更一致迹象,可能为进一步放缓加息步伐铺路。多位美联储官员近期暗示,未来的利率路径“特别依赖经济数据”,特别是最新通胀的影响,对2月加息25还是50个基点持开放态度。而美联储更喜欢的通胀指标——个人消费支出物价指数PCE的12月数据将于美东时间1月27日公布,与1月31日FOMC会议首日公布的第四季度就业成本指数,都是市场下一个焦点数据。上周发布的美联储12月会议纪要显示,央行官员们担心投资者可能会低估他们将利率维持在较高水平的决心,从而导致“金融环境出现不必要的宽松”。他们也大多表达了对通胀前景的持续担忧,尽管美联储预计PCE将在今年大幅放缓,但要到2025年才能接近其2%的通胀目标。美国消费者对服务的需求仍高涨,叠加劳动力供应吃紧,可能会继续对价格构成上行压力。这就令期货市场的押注与美联储“点阵图”体现的官员利率展望之间,形成了对立的矛盾局面。华尔街见闻曾提到,12月CPI数据发布后,市场对美联储加息预期进一步“退烧”,互换合约市场的定价甚至预计有很小的可能在3月21至22日FOMC会议上完全不加息。美国联邦基金利率期货交易市场预计,美联储2月加息25个基点的几率超过96%,一天前的预计几率不到77%。市场押注5月美国利率触及4.9%的峰值,美联储则预计利率触顶于5.1%。出于激进加息令美国经济步入衰退的担忧,衍生品投资者还认为今年下半年美联储两次降息共约50个基点,但鲍威尔在内的央行官员们正在竭力打消2023年会降息的市场预期。多位联储高官和“新美联储通信社”等重磅分析师,支持2月加息放慢至25个基点被称为“新美联储通讯社”的知名媒体记者Nick Timiraos今日撰文称,最新CPI数据令2月美联储加息进一步放缓至更传统的25个基点“板上钉钉”,理由是服务业通胀增速放缓。在通胀数据不断改善的大背景下,放缓加息步伐可以避免造成不必要的就业和经济增长下滑。鲍威尔上个月也表示,美联储管理过度收紧政策之风险的最佳方式是最早从2月起加息更小幅度。今年FOMC票委、费城联储主希拉克也在CPI数据发布后称,预计今年还有几次加息,但支持未来加息幅度都进一步放缓至25个基点,“一次性加息75个基点的日子已经结束了”。新年以来,“大鹰派”、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德,以及在职期间永久票委、美联储理事鲍曼等都承认通胀指标正在降温,但也称美联储加息之路尚未完成。今年票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里上周的言论,似乎可以代表美联储内部共识:“虽然我认为现在明确宣布通胀已经见顶还为时过早,但我们看到越来越多的证据表明它可能已经见顶。我认为,至少在接下来的几次会议上继续加息是合适的,直到我们确信通胀已经见顶。”大多数华尔街分析师也都认可,至少短期内美联储会继续加息。CPI通胀是美国经济降温的另一个迹象,会令美联储今年不会再激进加息,而是回归更传统的单次25个基点幅度。但名义与和核心CPI同比增速仍是通胀目标的三倍,凸显了生活成本上升给美国家庭带来的持续负担。摩根士丹利全球投资办公室的模型投资组合建设负责人Mike Loewengart,以及穆迪分析公司首席经济学家Mark Zandi都表示,今天的CPI数据标明通胀正朝着正确的方向发展,峰值可能即将到来,尽管名义CPI同比增6.5%依旧太高了,“我们还没有完全走出困境”。瑞士百达财富管理的高级美国经济学家Thomas Costerg指出,服务业通胀趋势似乎正在减弱,这一美联储关注重点提升了2月加息幅度放缓至25个基点的可能性。彭博经济学家Anna Won也持相同观点,美国利率或在3月就达到5%的峰值,并在今年剩余时间内保持在该水平。多重因素令不少主流投行维持2月鹰派加息50个基点不变,华尔街尚无统一意见不过,由于12月CPI中的住房成本环比增幅高于预期(其占核心CPI的40%),令名义CPI环比转负的动因来自不可持续的汽油价格下跌,以及美国劳动力市场仍趋紧等因素,包括高盛和巴克莱在内的不少主流华尔街机构,仍维持2月连续第二次加息50个基点为“基线场景预测”。道富环球投资管理的首席经济学家Simona Mocuta称,通胀降温从汽油价格中得到的支持昙花一现,尽管趋势是有利的,但不能指望下一份报告同样好。道明证券的全球利率策略主管Priya Misra也称,商品通胀和大宗商品跌价是通胀降温较容易实现的部分,“接下来更困难的部分是将服务通胀率持续降至2%”,也暗示通胀数据还可能恶化。高盛资管的多资产解决方案联席首席投资官Maria Vassalou指出,核心CPI中住房成本的强劲表现,以及上周美国首申失业救济人数下降,仍在支持2月加息50个基点。瑞讯银行的高级分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya认为,中国经济重新开放,将导致能源和大宗商品价格反弹,美国通胀可能不会在今年稳步降温,或促使美联储2月再度加息50个基点。基于通胀通胀的黏性,毕马威首席经济学家Diane Swonk、巴克莱,以及道富银行欧洲、中东和非洲宏观战略主管Timothy Graf都维持2月加息50个基点的预期不变,尽管他们也承认加息25个基点的可能性在CPI数据后有所上升。其理由汇总如下:“与住房相关的服务通胀数据表明,通胀下降速度还不够快,无法满足满足美联储的要求。核心商品通缩和强劲的核心服务通胀之对立是未来主题。鉴于美联储已经明确表示,将坚定兑现抑制通胀的承诺,他们认为这是一场马拉松,而不是短跑,最新CPI数据表明现在还不是放松政策的时候。不过有理由相信,随着我们越来越接近本轮周期的终端利率,美联储加息步伐需要放慢,未来某次会议上将加息25个基点。对市场来说最重要的是峰值利率何在,而不是加息的步伐。”就算是支持2月加息25个基点的分析师,也无法排除加息50个基点的风险。Evercore ISI的Krishna Guha认为,美联储会尝试在2月加息25个基点时传递鹰派信号。Piper Sandler的全球政策研究主管Roberto Perli称,2月仍有加息50个基点的显著风险,“没有理由相信美联储改变了加息至超过5%的想法”,而这与期货市场今年降息的定价预期相悖。美国资产值最大银行摩根大通的CEO戴蒙周二甚至称,美联储鹰派加息至6%的可能性达到50%,高于美联储12月“点阵图”的预期,理由是通胀会下降一点,但不会像人们预期的那样深跌。担任票委的美联储理事Lisa Cook上周也称:“尽管最近出现了一些令人鼓舞的迹象,但通胀率仍然过高,这令人非常担忧,我会告诫大家,不要过分重视过去几份有利的月度通胀数据。” 这都增添了美联储2月到底能否加息进一步放缓的不确定性。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358040592,"gmtCreate":1616644351016,"gmtModify":1616644351016,"author":{"id":"3477771732065352","authorId":"3477771732065352","name":"Marvin喵","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3477771732065352","idStr":"3477771732065352"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">$泡泡玛特(09992)$</a>我一个直男,为了妹子买了至少一千块钱的这玩意,实体类精神消费品,还是很有空间的,不要小看这些玩意","listText":"<a 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