东哥也是韭菜的个人主页 - 老虎社区

东哥也是韭菜

东哥也是韭菜

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IP属地：湖南

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东哥也是韭菜

2022-01-13

$蘑菇街(MOGU)$退市！可能快了

东哥也是韭菜

2021-12-30

$触宝(CTK)$我已经做空了，你拉暴我吧。二成仓做空

东哥也是韭菜

2021-12-20

$触宝(CTK)$退市

东哥也是韭菜

2021-09-29

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$英语大佬？？？外国人也开始买恐慌了？

东哥也是韭菜

2021-08-26

$Blue Water Acquisition Corp.(BLUWU)$不敢买，也不敢空。

东哥也是韭菜

2021-07-09

收网行动！

抱歉，原内容已删除

东哥也是韭菜

2021-06-11

$Orphazyme A/S(ORPH)$请放我下车

东哥也是韭菜

2021-06-03

$AMC院线(AMC)$空军一号来了！！！

东哥也是韭菜

2021-05-28

$Principal International Multi-Factor Index ETF(PXUS)$这是做什么？亲

东哥也是韭菜

2021-05-06

$旭明光电(LEDS)$快一点来做空！！！

东哥也是韭菜

2021-04-19

$百世集团(BEST)$垃圾让你自己去玩吧

东哥也是韭菜

2021-04-15

$Venus Acquisition Corp(VENAR)$什么公司[开心]

东哥也是韭菜

2021-03-26

$一起教育科技(YQ)$做空果然是捡钱

东哥也是韭菜

2021-03-25

$一起教育科技(YQ)$大家有多少股？ 😥😥😥😭😭😭

东哥也是韭菜

2021-03-24

$一起教育科技(YQ)$做空可能会盈利

东哥也是韭菜

2021-03-12

$蓝帽子(BHAT)$2.2空单走起！不行你逆势上行

东哥也是韭菜

2021-01-19

$Pine Island Acquisition Corp(PIPP)$na na威武！！！

东哥也是韭菜

2020-12-04

反向标[汗颜]

“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险

东哥也是韭菜

2020-11-27

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$自杀未遂

东哥也是韭菜

2020-10-03

$Yalla Group(YALA)$请以后不要自己加标签！小腾讯？感觉在侮辱马化腾。

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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19:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114232787","media":"英为财情","summary":"被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份","content":"<p>被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。</p>\n<p>之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a1bac5a3a461bffdb4fef7e7985b725\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"661\">标普500指数走势，来源：英为财情Investing.com</p>\n<p>在股指刷新新高之后，威尔逊又预测，年底前美股还会有第三场10%的回调，虽然他亦将这个潜在的回调看作是逢低买入的机会——威尔逊仍然认为美股处于牛市当中。</p>\n<p>不过，比起威尔逊的这些预测记录，更值得研究的是威尔逊作出这个预测的依据。按照他的说法，大多数人都忽视了一个风险，即美债收益率持续走高，这将冲击科技股，并支撑周期股和价值股。</p>\n<p>威尔逊在11月底的研报中称，“我们的经济学家预测明年美国的名义GDP增长7.5%，从12个月的角度来看，仅1%的10年期美债收益率是严重错误计价。这对股票估值、尤其是纳斯达克和标普500指数的估值有重要影响，而周期股则将从更好的增长和更高的利率中受益，因此我们在过去几个月中见证了股市从纳指向罗素2000小盘股轮动。如果我们对经济和利率的看法正确，这种轮动还将继续。”</p>\n<p>这位首席美股策略师将焦点放到了美国10年期国债收益率上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32381eb003dd4e67077f63347f2185e3\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"655\">美国十年期国债收益率，来源：英为财情Investing.com</p>\n<p>本周，该收益率一度飙升，周三曾短暂触及11月高点0.96%，随后有所回落。正是最新的这个趋势，促使威尔逊昨日再度指出，“市场现在的风险是，随着10年期美债收益率最终开始赶上来，美股的估值将会重置。”</p>\n<p>英为财情此前在《美股、美元等资产都要看它“脸色”：美债收益率会持续走高吗？》一文中指出，美债收益率走高已经成为市场共识，而最受益的可能就是周期性股票。</p>\n<p>在金融市场，向来有一个观点就是，利率是资产估值的一个“锚”，它是对金融资产进行定价的最简单方法的关键组成部分，即用企业未来利润或者现金流的现值以某个特定的利率进行贴现。这里说的利率，通常是无风险利率，即10年期美债收益率。</p>\n<p>低利率支撑着高股价。根据大多数估值模型，利率越低，投资者就越愿意为具有强劲增长前景的股票买单。这也解释了现在美股的高估值，标普500指数现在的交易价格大约是12个月远期收益的逾22倍。</p>\n<p>反过来，利率上升会削弱企业利润的价值；这会对所有企业的估值带来压力，但周期股能够更受益于经济走强，而成长股则仅面临着利率上升后利润被折价的负面影响。</p>\n<p>经济强劲通常对股市有利。但如果国债收益率持续走高，使得无风险资产的优势凸显出来，则投资者可能选择撤出高风险资产。</p>\n<p>到目前为止，美股仍处于纪录高位附近，纳斯达克综合指数周四上涨0.23%，标普500指数仅微幅下滑。但是，至少根据威尔逊的提醒，投资者需要密切关注十年期美债收益率，一旦其突破1%，这种情况有可能会发生改变。</p>","source":"ywcq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“华尔街最准确预言家”：大多数人忽略了美股这个风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-04 19:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew><strong>英为财情</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。\n标普500指数走势，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TNUg7fvoHlCP3apO2nnRew","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114232787","content_text":"被金融博客零对冲称为“华尔街最准确预言家”的摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）近日发出警告，称美股短期内有回调风险。\n之所以称他为最准预言家，是因为威尔逊曾在3月份美股跌势最严重的时候预测了市场的拐点；9月底，他称“未来五周交易环境将非常困难”，正确预测到了10月份美股第二次10%的回调；11月2日，威尔逊称“所预期的回调基本上已经结束”。\n标普500指数走势，来源：英为财情Investing.com\n在股指刷新新高之后，威尔逊又预测，年底前美股还会有第三场10%的回调，虽然他亦将这个潜在的回调看作是逢低买入的机会——威尔逊仍然认为美股处于牛市当中。\n不过，比起威尔逊的这些预测记录，更值得研究的是威尔逊作出这个预测的依据。按照他的说法，大多数人都忽视了一个风险，即美债收益率持续走高，这将冲击科技股，并支撑周期股和价值股。\n威尔逊在11月底的研报中称，“我们的经济学家预测明年美国的名义GDP增长7.5%，从12个月的角度来看，仅1%的10年期美债收益率是严重错误计价。这对股票估值、尤其是纳斯达克和标普500指数的估值有重要影响，而周期股则将从更好的增长和更高的利率中受益，因此我们在过去几个月中见证了股市从纳指向罗素2000小盘股轮动。如果我们对经济和利率的看法正确，这种轮动还将继续。”\n这位首席美股策略师将焦点放到了美国10年期国债收益率上。\n美国十年期国债收益率，来源：英为财情Investing.com\n本周，该收益率一度飙升，周三曾短暂触及11月高点0.96%，随后有所回落。正是最新的这个趋势，促使威尔逊昨日再度指出，“市场现在的风险是，随着10年期美债收益率最终开始赶上来，美股的估值将会重置。”\n英为财情此前在《美股、美元等资产都要看它“脸色”：美债收益率会持续走高吗？》一文中指出，美债收益率走高已经成为市场共识，而最受益的可能就是周期性股票。\n在金融市场，向来有一个观点就是，利率是资产估值的一个“锚”，它是对金融资产进行定价的最简单方法的关键组成部分，即用企业未来利润或者现金流的现值以某个特定的利率进行贴现。这里说的利率，通常是无风险利率，即10年期美债收益率。\n低利率支撑着高股价。根据大多数估值模型，利率越低，投资者就越愿意为具有强劲增长前景的股票买单。这也解释了现在美股的高估值，标普500指数现在的交易价格大约是12个月远期收益的逾22倍。\n反过来，利率上升会削弱企业利润的价值；这会对所有企业的估值带来压力，但周期股能够更受益于经济走强，而成长股则仅面临着利率上升后利润被折价的负面影响。\n经济强劲通常对股市有利。但如果国债收益率持续走高，使得无风险资产的优势凸显出来，则投资者可能选择撤出高风险资产。\n到目前为止，美股仍处于纪录高位附近，纳斯达克综合指数周四上涨0.23%，标普500指数仅微幅下滑。但是，至少根据威尔逊的提醒，投资者需要密切关注十年期美债收益率，一旦其突破1%，这种情况有可能会发生改变。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391313845,"gmtCreate":1606486267887,"gmtModify":1703843327994,"author":{"id":"3475834545224714","authorId":"3475834545224714","name":"东哥也是韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551706772c19d067b8d5e738db92efae","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3475834545224714","authorIdStr":"3475834545224714"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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