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未卜

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07-31

不会降息的，货币潮汐没有收割到

美联储利率决议来袭！本周按兵不动成共识，市场热盼9月降息信号

2020-03-12

庚子年，疯了[流泪][流泪][流泪][流泪][流泪]$道琼斯(.DJI)$$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$标普500ETF(SPY)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$$微软(MSFT)$$苹果(AAPL)$

2020-02-28

走了，担惊受怕一天，都在盯着期指。留下的但愿发财，我先走了，太累了$特斯拉(TSLA)$

2020-02-27

加油，抗住$特斯拉(TSLA)$$苹果(AAPL)$$微软(MSFT)$$标普500ETF(SPY)$$道琼斯(.DJI)$$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$

2020-02-13

$特斯拉(TSLA)$割不割？

2020-02-10

$特斯拉(TSLA)$上车了，喝点汤[吃瓜][吃瓜][吃瓜]

2020-02-06

$特斯拉(TSLA)$拉锯战，目前看着多头更强势啊

2020-02-06

算空吗$特斯拉(TSLA)$

2020-02-02

各位虎友，每年结汇售汇超过五万美金你们是如何做的？有什么渠道方法？求分享下$道琼斯(.DJI)$$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$标普500ETF(SPY)$$苹果(AAPL)$$波音(BA)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$$微软(MSFT)$

2019-07-17

$斗鱼(DOYU)$ 1000意向没中...

2019-06-03

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 看空到1.5

2019-05-03

$云集(YJ)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 中签入仓了，开盘竞价大幅上涨，直接删仓？老虎太失望了

2019-04-29

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 今晚怎么样

2019-04-24

请教一个问题，你们香港卡转入内地，是用汇款吗，需要多久？我试了一笔，三天了没到。按理来说不应该啊 $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$

2019-03-29

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 期权时间价值美股里最高了吧 $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ #A股牛市来了吗#

2019-02-07

$微软(MSFT)$ 空

2018-03-21

$标普500(.INX)$真安静，才0.25%振幅，都等着呢？

2018-03-19

$标普500(.INX)$这波下跌根据计算2718第一位，看看扛不扛住

2018-03-15

$标普500(.INX)$为什么标普和标普期货，拉开4点差？

2018-02-27

市场波动不会影响加息，经济利好，接下来怎么分析？$道琼斯(.DJI)$ $标普500(.INX)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$

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:"不会降息的，货币潮汐没有收割到","listText":"不会降息的，货币潮汐没有收割到","text":"不会降息的，货币潮汐没有收割到","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333246228119600","repostId":"2455626481","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2455626481","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1722307241,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2455626481?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-30 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George表示。“我认为他们会非常认真地考虑9月份的政策。在我看来，我们即将迎来作出这一决定更重要的时刻，这也是我更加有信心的原因。”</p><p>最新数据显示，美联储最青睐的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出指数(PCE)年度涨幅降至三年多来的最低水平，这再次证明降息可能即将到来。美国6月核心PCE同比增长2.6%，与5月份持平，低于4月份的2.8%。</p><p>另一项通胀指标——消费者价格指数(CPI)也显示出进展。不包括食品和能源价格的6月份核心CPI同比上涨3.3%，低于5月份的3.4%和4月份的3.6%。</p><p>Wilmington Trust首席经济学家Luke Tilley表示，因此，在本周政策会议结束时，“美联储将表示，近期的经济数据，尤其是通胀数据，让他们相信通胀可能回到目标水平，降息将是合适的。”</p><p><strong>仍需等待</strong></p><p>一些美联储观察人士确实认为，美联储有理由在本周的会议上支持降息，尽管他们预计降息不会发生。</p><p>“我从经济数据中找不出他们这次会议不降息的理由，” Tilley表示。“事实上，我认为很难找到他们应该保持利率不变的理由。”</p><p>Tilley补充说，尽管如此，美联储“不可能”降息，因为这有“惊动市场”的风险。他预计9月和12月将分别降息一次，然后在2025年总共降息6次，每次25个基点。</p><p>事实上，本周降息将让市场完全措手不及。交易员目前预计，本周降息的可能性只有5%，而在9月17日至18日的会议上降息的可能性接近100%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f7964da6313a3ce41f81c4617c79893\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><p>但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>首席经济学家Jan Hatzius也认为7月份降息有充分的理由。</p><p>Hatzius表示：“如果降息理由明确，为何要再等七周才实施?”</p><p>“其次，月度通胀波动很大，而且总是存在暂时重新加速的风险，这可能会让9月份的降息变得难以解释。从7月份开始降息可以避免这种风险。”</p><p>9月份更有可能降息的另一个原因是，美联储官员表示，他们需要超过一个季度的良好数据，才能确定通胀正朝着正确的方向发展。他们可能想先看看7月和8月的数据。</p><p>George表示:“我确实认为他们会极力强调9月份可能是合适的时间，但他们必须小心措辞，以免在没有看到8月份数据的情况下就做出承诺。”</p><p><strong>“走钢丝”</strong></p><p>另一个可能影响美联储何时降息的因素是劳动力市场降温。失业率已经连续两个月上升至4.1%，高于一些美联储官员预计的今年年底的水平。</p><p>这一点很重要，因为美联储肩负双重使命，即在保持物价稳定的同时，最大限度地提高美国的就业率。美联储主席鲍威尔曾明确表示，随着通胀下降，美联储将更多地关注劳动力方面的任务。</p><p>芝加哥联储主席Austan Goolsbee本月早些时候表示，就业市场的降温“令人担忧”，“需要密切关注”。</p><p>他补充说，虽然还有其他一些警示信号，但到目前为止，这看起来还不像是衰退的开始。相反，这更像是劳动力市场在经历了疫情冲击后恢复到更平衡的状态。</p><p>Tilley并不认为就业市场今后会变得更糟。他预计，随着越来越多的人首次进入就业市场，那些曾经离开就业市场的人重新进入就业市场，而其他人则失业，失业率将从目前的4.1%上升到今年年底的4.5%。</p><p>但George并不认为软着陆是板上钉钉的事，她认为经济衰退迟早会到来。她表示，人们加入就业市场的势头开始减弱，这表明经济正在放缓。</p><p>在大选年，“如果你让失业率上升，而原因似乎与通胀没有太大关系，我认为这将向公众传递一个强硬的信息，”她补充说。“这对他们来说就像走钢丝一样。”</p><p>有人担心，美联储实际上可能会在太长时间内维持过于紧缩的货币政策，从而导致经济衰退。</p><p>Tilley称，“美联储有过长期维持利率过紧的历史，这或许会引发经济衰退，而在经济衰退触底后，美联储又将利率维持在过低的水平。”</p><p>但只要美联储发出9月份降息的信号，本周的政策就不会给经济带来任何风险，因为美联储发出的信号将导致政府债券收益率和借款利率走低。</p><p>不过，9月份行动可能会导致美联储面临来自美国两党的政治批评。</p><p>如果美联储在9月份维持利率不变，那么民主党人要求降息的呼声可能会达到高潮。但如果美联储9月份降息，包括唐纳德·特朗普在内的共和党人肯定会将此举视为屈服于选举年压力。</p><p>特朗普在本月早些时候再次重申，美联储不应该在11月大选前放松货币政策。</p><p>特朗普表示：“他们知道他们不应该这么做。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1157201.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>大多数美联储观察人士预计，美联储本周不会放松货币政策，但政策制定者将为9月份降息做准备。美联储将于当地时间周三下午2点(北京时间周四凌晨2点)公布利率决议。大多数美联储观察人士预计，美联储本周不会放松货币政策，但政策制定者将为9月份降息做准备。美联储官员表示，他们对通胀会持续降至2%的目标越来越有信心。美联储官员还愈发关注不断上升的失业率，这也是降息可能即将到来的另一个迹象。但大多数美联储观察人士...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1157201.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1157201.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2455626481","content_text":"大多数美联储观察人士预计，美联储本周不会放松货币政策，但政策制定者将为9月份降息做准备。美联储将于当地时间周三下午2点(北京时间周四凌晨2点)公布利率决议。大多数美联储观察人士预计，美联储本周不会放松货币政策，但政策制定者将为9月份降息做准备。美联储官员表示，他们对通胀会持续降至2%的目标越来越有信心。美联储官员还愈发关注不断上升的失业率，这也是降息可能即将到来的另一个迹象。但大多数美联储观察人士表示，美联储仍然需要更多时间来确定通胀降温，同时也要让市场为即将到来的重大行动做好准备。“他们面临的压力越来越大，”前堪萨斯城联储主席Esther George表示。“我认为他们会非常认真地考虑9月份的政策。在我看来，我们即将迎来作出这一决定更重要的时刻，这也是我更加有信心的原因。”最新数据显示，美联储最青睐的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出指数(PCE)年度涨幅降至三年多来的最低水平，这再次证明降息可能即将到来。美国6月核心PCE同比增长2.6%，与5月份持平，低于4月份的2.8%。另一项通胀指标——消费者价格指数(CPI)也显示出进展。不包括食品和能源价格的6月份核心CPI同比上涨3.3%，低于5月份的3.4%和4月份的3.6%。Wilmington Trust首席经济学家Luke Tilley表示，因此，在本周政策会议结束时，“美联储将表示，近期的经济数据，尤其是通胀数据，让他们相信通胀可能回到目标水平，降息将是合适的。”仍需等待一些美联储观察人士确实认为，美联储有理由在本周的会议上支持降息，尽管他们预计降息不会发生。“我从经济数据中找不出他们这次会议不降息的理由，” Tilley表示。“事实上，我认为很难找到他们应该保持利率不变的理由。”Tilley补充说，尽管如此，美联储“不可能”降息，因为这有“惊动市场”的风险。他预计9月和12月将分别降息一次，然后在2025年总共降息6次，每次25个基点。事实上，本周降息将让市场完全措手不及。交易员目前预计，本周降息的可能性只有5%，而在9月17日至18日的会议上降息的可能性接近100%。但高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius也认为7月份降息有充分的理由。Hatzius表示：“如果降息理由明确，为何要再等七周才实施?”“其次，月度通胀波动很大，而且总是存在暂时重新加速的风险，这可能会让9月份的降息变得难以解释。从7月份开始降息可以避免这种风险。”9月份更有可能降息的另一个原因是，美联储官员表示，他们需要超过一个季度的良好数据，才能确定通胀正朝着正确的方向发展。他们可能想先看看7月和8月的数据。George表示:“我确实认为他们会极力强调9月份可能是合适的时间，但他们必须小心措辞，以免在没有看到8月份数据的情况下就做出承诺。”“走钢丝”另一个可能影响美联储何时降息的因素是劳动力市场降温。失业率已经连续两个月上升至4.1%，高于一些美联储官员预计的今年年底的水平。这一点很重要，因为美联储肩负双重使命，即在保持物价稳定的同时，最大限度地提高美国的就业率。美联储主席鲍威尔曾明确表示，随着通胀下降，美联储将更多地关注劳动力方面的任务。芝加哥联储主席Austan Goolsbee本月早些时候表示，就业市场的降温“令人担忧”，“需要密切关注”。他补充说，虽然还有其他一些警示信号，但到目前为止，这看起来还不像是衰退的开始。相反，这更像是劳动力市场在经历了疫情冲击后恢复到更平衡的状态。Tilley并不认为就业市场今后会变得更糟。他预计，随着越来越多的人首次进入就业市场，那些曾经离开就业市场的人重新进入就业市场，而其他人则失业，失业率将从目前的4.1%上升到今年年底的4.5%。但George并不认为软着陆是板上钉钉的事，她认为经济衰退迟早会到来。她表示，人们加入就业市场的势头开始减弱，这表明经济正在放缓。在大选年，“如果你让失业率上升，而原因似乎与通胀没有太大关系，我认为这将向公众传递一个强硬的信息，”她补充说。“这对他们来说就像走钢丝一样。”有人担心，美联储实际上可能会在太长时间内维持过于紧缩的货币政策，从而导致经济衰退。Tilley称，“美联储有过长期维持利率过紧的历史，这或许会引发经济衰退，而在经济衰退触底后，美联储又将利率维持在过低的水平。”但只要美联储发出9月份降息的信号，本周的政策就不会给经济带来任何风险，因为美联储发出的信号将导致政府债券收益率和借款利率走低。不过，9月份行动可能会导致美联储面临来自美国两党的政治批评。如果美联储在9月份维持利率不变，那么民主党人要求降息的呼声可能会达到高潮。但如果美联储9月份降息，包括唐纳德·特朗普在内的共和党人肯定会将此举视为屈服于选举年压力。特朗普在本月早些时候再次重申，美联储不应该在11月大选前放松货币政策。特朗普表示：“他们知道他们不应该这么做。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":965539314,"gmtCreate":1584021663538,"gmtModify":1704352595586,"author":{"id":"3474599964092668","authorId":"3474599964092668","name":"未卜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce5ca381fa3300a5fae303312eb8e991","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474599964092668","authorIdStr":"3474599964092668"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"庚子年，疯了[流泪][流泪][流泪][流泪][流泪]<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>","listText":"庚子年，疯了[流泪][流泪][流泪][流泪][流泪]<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>","text":"庚子年，疯了[流泪][流泪][流泪][流泪][流泪]$道琼斯(.DJI)$$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$标普500ETF(SPY)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$$微软(MSFT)$$苹果(AAPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965539314","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":989420996,"gmtCreate":1582901224115,"gmtModify":1704348260795,"author":{"id":"3474599964092668","authorId":"3474599964092668","name":"未卜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce5ca381fa3300a5fae303312eb8e991","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474599964092668","authorIdStr":"3474599964092668"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"走了，担惊受怕一天，都在盯着期指。留下的但愿发财，我先走了，太累了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","listText":"走了，担惊受怕一天，都在盯着期指。留下的但愿发财，我先走了，太累了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","text":"走了，担惊受怕一天，都在盯着期指。留下的但愿发财，我先走了，太累了$特斯拉(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/989420996","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":989615183,"gmtCreate":1582815498342,"gmtModify":1704347828758,"author":{"id":"3474599964092668","authorId":"3474599964092668","name":"未卜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce5ca381fa3300a5fae303312eb8e991","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474599964092668","authorIdStr":"3474599964092668"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"加油，抗住<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>","listText":"加油，抗住<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>","text":"加油，抗住$特斯拉(TSLA)$$苹果(AAPL)$$微软(MSFT)$$标普500ETF(SPY)$$道琼斯(.DJI)$$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/989615183","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":917942646,"gmtCreate":1581590885985,"gmtModify":1704344650746,"author":{"id":"3474599964092668","authorId":"3474599964092668","name":"未卜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce5ca381fa3300a5fae303312eb8e991","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474599964092668","authorIdStr":"3474599964092668"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>割不割？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>割不割？","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$割不割？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83119746e181f84091bbfd6a0de6ca21","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/917942646","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3526709612641830","authorId":"3526709612641830","name":"投资伟大的企业家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02f989e68a7ed0a5f969386984542f13","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3526709612641830","authorIdStr":"3526709612641830"},"content":"这个只要仓位不是特别重，没必要割，但也别着急补。我看两周之内解套没问题。","text":"这个只要仓位不是特别重，没必要割，但也别着急补。我看两周之内解套没问题。","html":"这个只要仓位不是特别重，没必要割，但也别着急补。我看两周之内解套没问题。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":914644322,"gmtCreate":1581334253066,"gmtModify":1704343834742,"author":{"id":"3474599964092668","authorId":"3474599964092668","name":"未卜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce5ca381fa3300a5fae303312eb8e991","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474599964092668","authorIdStr":"3474599964092668"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>上车了，喝点汤[吃瓜][吃瓜][吃瓜]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>上车了，喝点汤[吃瓜][吃瓜][吃瓜]","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$上车了，喝点汤[吃瓜][吃瓜][吃瓜]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23570edbb3927f72d1c0b5f464121ec0","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/914644322","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":914904194,"gmtCreate":1580999825818,"gmtModify":1704343183854,"author":{"id":"3474599964092668","authorId":"3474599964092668","name":"未卜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce5ca381fa3300a5fae303312eb8e991","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474599964092668","authorIdStr":"3474599964092668"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>拉锯战，目前看着多头更强势啊","listText":"<a 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