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举白
06-03
那就是整体跌，个别涨的格局！
切换时间到了吗？英伟达 VS 道指！
举白
2022-10-05
损失是4.2%+3.9%=8.1%啊！我没有看懂哦！
老虎锐评：马斯克戏剧性反转，他到底要干什么？
举白
2022-08-16
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
对特斯拉(TSLA)表态看多看空
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>财报公布后却出现了分化。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI策略师Julian Emanuel指出，尽管该股在绩后3个交易日内上涨20%，但标普500指数在这期间基本持平，相关性出现显著下降。</p><p>这一变化令市场分析人士惊讶不已，因为过去30年来从未出现过标普500指数中市值位居前五大成分股出现如此大涨，而指数本身却基本没有跟随上涨的情况。有机构认为，<strong>英伟达股价与整体市场开始出现背离，可能意味着“一个股票代表一个市场”的时代临近结束。</strong></p><p>事实上，本周以来，CBOE波动率指数VIX已从11.93升至14.51，市场噪音有所增加。在AI概念交易热潮逐渐褪去的背景下，投资者或可考虑把注意力转移到此前被市场冷落的道指成分股上。</p><p>今年以来，传统公司占比较大的道指涨幅仅为1.2%，远跑输标普500和纳指。不过，5月17日创下40000点新高以来，道指已经下跌近5%，目前出现了自2022年9月以来的最大超卖程度。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>切换时间到了吗？英伟达 VS 道指！</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd4bd497e9fce973759fee32dae90bf","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3716303","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2440211130","content_text":"摘要：在AI交易热潮逐渐褪去的背景下，投资者或可考虑把注意力转移到此前被市场冷落的道指成分股上。今年以来，人工智能无疑成为推动美股反弹的最大动力，但最新一轮财报季也给投资者敲响了警钟——AI概念股风险与回报的高低并存格局愈发明显。人工智能交易对整个市场的拉动作用已经出现了颓势，市场风格切换的时机可能即将到来。AI概念股本轮财报季的表现可谓喜忧参半。一方面，UiPath的CEO意外离职令该股应声重挫34%。但另一方面，惠普等公司凭借着布局AI领域而获得资金青睐，股价翻番。总体来看，数据显示自ChatGPT发布以来，86%的“AI引用”公司财报均超预期，其他行业则只有78%。而且，这些公司的股价在业绩超预期时的平均上涨0.3%，高于传统公司0.3%的平均跌幅。不过，倘若业绩令投资者失望，AI概念股的平均跌幅高达5.3%，远超过传统公司2.5%的平均跌幅。这种高回报伴随高风险的格局，意味着投资者如果想继续追捧AI概念股，需要更加谨慎。在整个AI题材中，英伟达无疑是关键所在。在5月22日财报公布之前，该股与标普500指数的相关性高达0.95，二者的涨跌走势基本同步。然而，英伟达财报公布后却出现了分化。Evercore ISI策略师Julian Emanuel指出，尽管该股在绩后3个交易日内上涨20%，但标普500指数在这期间基本持平，相关性出现显著下降。这一变化令市场分析人士惊讶不已，因为过去30年来从未出现过标普500指数中市值位居前五大成分股出现如此大涨，而指数本身却基本没有跟随上涨的情况。有机构认为，英伟达股价与整体市场开始出现背离，可能意味着“一个股票代表一个市场”的时代临近结束。事实上，本周以来，CBOE波动率指数VIX已从11.93升至14.51，市场噪音有所增加。在AI概念交易热潮逐渐褪去的背景下，投资者或可考虑把注意力转移到此前被市场冷落的道指成分股上。今年以来，传统公司占比较大的道指涨幅仅为1.2%，远跑输标普500和纳指。不过，5月17日创下40000点新高以来，道指已经下跌近5%，目前出现了自2022年9月以来的最大超卖程度。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668560224,"gmtCreate":1664944741968,"gmtModify":1664946352306,"author":{"id":"3473281345429677","authorId":"3473281345429677","name":"举白","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b75584da9d2d7f8fdef75df9a195d5f7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473281345429677","authorIdStr":"3473281345429677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"损失是4.2%+3.9%=8.1%啊！我没有看懂哦！","listText":"损失是4.2%+3.9%=8.1%啊！我没有看懂哦！","text":"损失是4.2%+3.9%=8.1%啊！我没有看懂哦！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668560224","repostId":"1197886521","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197886521","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"老虎社区精选助您了解全球市场趋势，把握投资机会","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1044785273","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12742089e62446e49dd6fd102af60d04"},"pubTimestamp":1664930750,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197886521?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-05 08:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎锐评：马斯克戏剧性反转，他到底要干什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197886521","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"即使双方配合再加上监管不阻拦，要结束收购也是1年甚至更长时间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>马斯克和推特的事情我写了不少。首次看到马斯克买入推特股票，我的反应是马斯克绝对不会甘愿做一个被动投资人，必将对推特董事会发起进攻；后来马斯克正式抛出了收购要约，我的反应就是立刻离场或者做空推特股票，经过一些列计算，我算出马斯克的钱不够；再到后来马斯克开始在推特上挑刺机器人的消息，我的反应就是马斯克要耍赖了…可以说，每一次马斯克有任何动作，我都能精准算出他的意图和他的下一步。但是今天马斯克突然给推特发信，宣布将按照原价收购推特，我看不懂了。</p><p>今天推特股价受此消息影响，大涨22%，收盘价$52.00，离收购价$54.20一步之遥（下图）。在这个价位又有一个套利机会产生，做空推特，用收入去买美国国债。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74be9b9d4e66dc190eb9f9eae07561a\" tg-width=\"695\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>别看现在马斯克又愿意重新收购推特，即使双方配合再加上监管不阻拦，要结束收购也是1年甚至更长时间。要知道，马斯克首次提出收购要约的时候，正好是4月4日，距今已经半年了，收购的时间是很容易拖得很长的。</p><p>假设最后收购成功（假设1年），那么做空的损失是年化2.2/52 = 4.2%。但是把做空的收入直接拿去买1年期国债，那么1年的收益差不多是3.9%。也就是说，这个组合最大的损失就是4.2%- 3.9% = 0.3%，可以忽略不计，唯一需要考虑的是融券的成本（今天的融券成本差不多是0.25%，也可以忽略不计）。但向上的收益就很大了，万一马斯克又反悔了呢？或者监管跳出来阻拦呢？或者马斯克的银行们突然不愿意借贷了呢？或者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价暴跌导致马斯克钱不够呢？……有太多可能性这个收购案不能成功了。</p><p>每次看到股价逼近收购价，其实都是暗示做空的机会来了。我是真的看不懂为何有买家会愿意在这个时候用$52买入，还不如去买美国国债。</p><p>说回马斯克，这是他今天给SEC发的信，一副非常愿意配合收购的样子。</p><p>On October 3, 2022, the Reporting Person’s advisors sent a letter to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> (on the Reporting Person’s behalf) notifying <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> that the Reporting Person intends to proceed to closing of the transaction contemplated by the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein and pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing contemplated thereby, provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action, Twitter vs. Musk, et al. (C.A. No. 202-0613-KSJM), and adjourn the trial and all other proceedings related thereto pending such closing or further order of the court. The foregoing description of the letter is qualified in its entirety by reference to the full text of the letter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit S and incorporated herein by reference.</p><p>比较吊诡的是，一向喜欢在推特上解释自己动机的马斯克（卖股票的动机，收购推特的动机，俄乌和平协议提出的动机），对于这件事情居然一个推特没发。我虽然说我看不懂马斯克，但心中还是有几个解释，先把问题抛在这里，这件事究竟怎么解读？任何一个看上去很难的分析，后面都是机会。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎锐评：马斯克戏剧性反转，他到底要干什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎锐评：马斯克戏剧性反转，他到底要干什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1044785273\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/12742089e62446e49dd6fd102af60d04);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-05 08:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>马斯克和推特的事情我写了不少。首次看到马斯克买入推特股票，我的反应是马斯克绝对不会甘愿做一个被动投资人，必将对推特董事会发起进攻；后来马斯克正式抛出了收购要约，我的反应就是立刻离场或者做空推特股票，经过一些列计算，我算出马斯克的钱不够；再到后来马斯克开始在推特上挑刺机器人的消息，我的反应就是马斯克要耍赖了…可以说，每一次马斯克有任何动作，我都能精准算出他的意图和他的下一步。但是今天马斯克突然给推特发信，宣布将按照原价收购推特，我看不懂了。</p><p>今天推特股价受此消息影响，大涨22%，收盘价$52.00，离收购价$54.20一步之遥（下图）。在这个价位又有一个套利机会产生，做空推特，用收入去买美国国债。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74be9b9d4e66dc190eb9f9eae07561a\" tg-width=\"695\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>别看现在马斯克又愿意重新收购推特，即使双方配合再加上监管不阻拦，要结束收购也是1年甚至更长时间。要知道，马斯克首次提出收购要约的时候，正好是4月4日，距今已经半年了，收购的时间是很容易拖得很长的。</p><p>假设最后收购成功（假设1年），那么做空的损失是年化2.2/52 = 4.2%。但是把做空的收入直接拿去买1年期国债，那么1年的收益差不多是3.9%。也就是说，这个组合最大的损失就是4.2%- 3.9% = 0.3%，可以忽略不计，唯一需要考虑的是融券的成本（今天的融券成本差不多是0.25%，也可以忽略不计）。但向上的收益就很大了，万一马斯克又反悔了呢？或者监管跳出来阻拦呢？或者马斯克的银行们突然不愿意借贷了呢？或者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价暴跌导致马斯克钱不够呢？……有太多可能性这个收购案不能成功了。</p><p>每次看到股价逼近收购价，其实都是暗示做空的机会来了。我是真的看不懂为何有买家会愿意在这个时候用$52买入，还不如去买美国国债。</p><p>说回马斯克，这是他今天给SEC发的信，一副非常愿意配合收购的样子。</p><p>On October 3, 2022, the Reporting Person’s advisors sent a letter to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> (on the Reporting Person’s behalf) notifying <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> that the Reporting Person intends to proceed to closing of the transaction contemplated by the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein and pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing contemplated thereby, provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action, Twitter vs. Musk, et al. (C.A. No. 202-0613-KSJM), and adjourn the trial and all other proceedings related thereto pending such closing or further order of the court. The foregoing description of the letter is qualified in its entirety by reference to the full text of the letter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit S and incorporated herein by reference.</p><p>比较吊诡的是，一向喜欢在推特上解释自己动机的马斯克（卖股票的动机，收购推特的动机，俄乌和平协议提出的动机），对于这件事情居然一个推特没发。我虽然说我看不懂马斯克，但心中还是有几个解释，先把问题抛在这里，这件事究竟怎么解读？任何一个看上去很难的分析，后面都是机会。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2c0b8b70e62c31099a0930308087d87","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TWTR":"Twitter"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197886521","content_text":"马斯克和推特的事情我写了不少。首次看到马斯克买入推特股票，我的反应是马斯克绝对不会甘愿做一个被动投资人，必将对推特董事会发起进攻；后来马斯克正式抛出了收购要约，我的反应就是立刻离场或者做空推特股票，经过一些列计算，我算出马斯克的钱不够；再到后来马斯克开始在推特上挑刺机器人的消息，我的反应就是马斯克要耍赖了…可以说，每一次马斯克有任何动作，我都能精准算出他的意图和他的下一步。但是今天马斯克突然给推特发信，宣布将按照原价收购推特，我看不懂了。今天推特股价受此消息影响，大涨22%，收盘价$52.00，离收购价$54.20一步之遥（下图）。在这个价位又有一个套利机会产生，做空推特，用收入去买美国国债。别看现在马斯克又愿意重新收购推特，即使双方配合再加上监管不阻拦，要结束收购也是1年甚至更长时间。要知道，马斯克首次提出收购要约的时候，正好是4月4日，距今已经半年了，收购的时间是很容易拖得很长的。假设最后收购成功（假设1年），那么做空的损失是年化2.2/52 = 4.2%。但是把做空的收入直接拿去买1年期国债，那么1年的收益差不多是3.9%。也就是说，这个组合最大的损失就是4.2%- 3.9% = 0.3%，可以忽略不计，唯一需要考虑的是融券的成本（今天的融券成本差不多是0.25%，也可以忽略不计）。但向上的收益就很大了，万一马斯克又反悔了呢？或者监管跳出来阻拦呢？或者马斯克的银行们突然不愿意借贷了呢？或者特斯拉股价暴跌导致马斯克钱不够呢？……有太多可能性这个收购案不能成功了。每次看到股价逼近收购价，其实都是暗示做空的机会来了。我是真的看不懂为何有买家会愿意在这个时候用$52买入，还不如去买美国国债。说回马斯克，这是他今天给SEC发的信，一副非常愿意配合收购的样子。On October 3, 2022, the Reporting Person’s advisors sent a letter to Twitter (on the Reporting Person’s behalf) notifying Twitter that the Reporting Person intends to proceed to closing of the transaction contemplated by the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein and pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing contemplated thereby, provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action, Twitter vs. Musk, et al. (C.A. No. 202-0613-KSJM), and adjourn the trial and all other proceedings related thereto pending such closing or further order of the court. The foregoing description of the letter is qualified in its entirety by reference to the full text of the letter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit S and incorporated herein by reference.比较吊诡的是，一向喜欢在推特上解释自己动机的马斯克（卖股票的动机，收购推特的动机，俄乌和平协议提出的动机），对于这件事情居然一个推特没发。我虽然说我看不懂马斯克，但心中还是有几个解释，先把问题抛在这里，这件事究竟怎么解读？任何一个看上去很难的分析，后面都是机会。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684715300,"gmtCreate":1660607015504,"gmtModify":1660612773455,"author":{"id":"3473281345429677","authorId":"3473281345429677","name":"举白","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b75584da9d2d7f8fdef75df9a195d5f7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473281345429677","authorIdStr":"3473281345429677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>对特斯拉(TSLA)表态看多看空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>对特斯拉(TSLA)表态看多看空","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$对特斯拉(TSLA)表态看多看空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/684715300","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":668560224,"gmtCreate":1664944741968,"gmtModify":1664946352306,"author":{"id":"3473281345429677","authorId":"3473281345429677","name":"举白","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b75584da9d2d7f8fdef75df9a195d5f7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3473281345429677","idStr":"3473281345429677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"损失是4.2%+3.9%=8.1%啊！我没有看懂哦！","listText":"损失是4.2%+3.9%=8.1%啊！我没有看懂哦！","text":"损失是4.2%+3.9%=8.1%啊！我没有看懂哦！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668560224","repostId":"1197886521","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197886521","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"老虎社区精选助您了解全球市场趋势，把握投资机会","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1044785273","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12742089e62446e49dd6fd102af60d04"},"pubTimestamp":1664930750,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197886521?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-05 08:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎锐评：马斯克戏剧性反转，他到底要干什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197886521","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"即使双方配合再加上监管不阻拦，要结束收购也是1年甚至更长时间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>马斯克和推特的事情我写了不少。首次看到马斯克买入推特股票，我的反应是马斯克绝对不会甘愿做一个被动投资人，必将对推特董事会发起进攻；后来马斯克正式抛出了收购要约，我的反应就是立刻离场或者做空推特股票，经过一些列计算，我算出马斯克的钱不够；再到后来马斯克开始在推特上挑刺机器人的消息，我的反应就是马斯克要耍赖了…可以说，每一次马斯克有任何动作，我都能精准算出他的意图和他的下一步。但是今天马斯克突然给推特发信，宣布将按照原价收购推特，我看不懂了。</p><p>今天推特股价受此消息影响，大涨22%，收盘价$52.00，离收购价$54.20一步之遥（下图）。在这个价位又有一个套利机会产生，做空推特，用收入去买美国国债。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74be9b9d4e66dc190eb9f9eae07561a\" tg-width=\"695\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>别看现在马斯克又愿意重新收购推特，即使双方配合再加上监管不阻拦，要结束收购也是1年甚至更长时间。要知道，马斯克首次提出收购要约的时候，正好是4月4日，距今已经半年了，收购的时间是很容易拖得很长的。</p><p>假设最后收购成功（假设1年），那么做空的损失是年化2.2/52 = 4.2%。但是把做空的收入直接拿去买1年期国债，那么1年的收益差不多是3.9%。也就是说，这个组合最大的损失就是4.2%- 3.9% = 0.3%，可以忽略不计，唯一需要考虑的是融券的成本（今天的融券成本差不多是0.25%，也可以忽略不计）。但向上的收益就很大了，万一马斯克又反悔了呢？或者监管跳出来阻拦呢？或者马斯克的银行们突然不愿意借贷了呢？或者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价暴跌导致马斯克钱不够呢？……有太多可能性这个收购案不能成功了。</p><p>每次看到股价逼近收购价，其实都是暗示做空的机会来了。我是真的看不懂为何有买家会愿意在这个时候用$52买入，还不如去买美国国债。</p><p>说回马斯克，这是他今天给SEC发的信，一副非常愿意配合收购的样子。</p><p>On October 3, 2022, the Reporting Person’s advisors sent a letter to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> (on the Reporting Person’s behalf) notifying <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> that the Reporting Person intends to proceed to closing of the transaction contemplated by the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein and pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing contemplated thereby, provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action, Twitter vs. Musk, et al. (C.A. No. 202-0613-KSJM), and adjourn the trial and all other proceedings related thereto pending such closing or further order of the court. The foregoing description of the letter is qualified in its entirety by reference to the full text of the letter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit S and incorporated herein by reference.</p><p>比较吊诡的是，一向喜欢在推特上解释自己动机的马斯克（卖股票的动机，收购推特的动机，俄乌和平协议提出的动机），对于这件事情居然一个推特没发。我虽然说我看不懂马斯克，但心中还是有几个解释，先把问题抛在这里，这件事究竟怎么解读？任何一个看上去很难的分析，后面都是机会。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎锐评：马斯克戏剧性反转，他到底要干什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎锐评：马斯克戏剧性反转，他到底要干什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1044785273\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/12742089e62446e49dd6fd102af60d04);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-05 08:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>马斯克和推特的事情我写了不少。首次看到马斯克买入推特股票，我的反应是马斯克绝对不会甘愿做一个被动投资人，必将对推特董事会发起进攻；后来马斯克正式抛出了收购要约，我的反应就是立刻离场或者做空推特股票，经过一些列计算，我算出马斯克的钱不够；再到后来马斯克开始在推特上挑刺机器人的消息，我的反应就是马斯克要耍赖了…可以说，每一次马斯克有任何动作，我都能精准算出他的意图和他的下一步。但是今天马斯克突然给推特发信，宣布将按照原价收购推特，我看不懂了。</p><p>今天推特股价受此消息影响，大涨22%，收盘价$52.00，离收购价$54.20一步之遥（下图）。在这个价位又有一个套利机会产生，做空推特，用收入去买美国国债。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74be9b9d4e66dc190eb9f9eae07561a\" tg-width=\"695\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>别看现在马斯克又愿意重新收购推特，即使双方配合再加上监管不阻拦，要结束收购也是1年甚至更长时间。要知道，马斯克首次提出收购要约的时候，正好是4月4日，距今已经半年了，收购的时间是很容易拖得很长的。</p><p>假设最后收购成功（假设1年），那么做空的损失是年化2.2/52 = 4.2%。但是把做空的收入直接拿去买1年期国债，那么1年的收益差不多是3.9%。也就是说，这个组合最大的损失就是4.2%- 3.9% = 0.3%，可以忽略不计，唯一需要考虑的是融券的成本（今天的融券成本差不多是0.25%，也可以忽略不计）。但向上的收益就很大了，万一马斯克又反悔了呢？或者监管跳出来阻拦呢？或者马斯克的银行们突然不愿意借贷了呢？或者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价暴跌导致马斯克钱不够呢？……有太多可能性这个收购案不能成功了。</p><p>每次看到股价逼近收购价，其实都是暗示做空的机会来了。我是真的看不懂为何有买家会愿意在这个时候用$52买入，还不如去买美国国债。</p><p>说回马斯克，这是他今天给SEC发的信，一副非常愿意配合收购的样子。</p><p>On October 3, 2022, the Reporting Person’s advisors sent a letter to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> (on the Reporting Person’s behalf) notifying <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> that the Reporting Person intends to proceed to closing of the transaction contemplated by the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein and pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing contemplated thereby, provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action, Twitter vs. Musk, et al. (C.A. No. 202-0613-KSJM), and adjourn the trial and all other proceedings related thereto pending such closing or further order of the court. The foregoing description of the letter is qualified in its entirety by reference to the full text of the letter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit S and incorporated herein by reference.</p><p>比较吊诡的是，一向喜欢在推特上解释自己动机的马斯克（卖股票的动机，收购推特的动机，俄乌和平协议提出的动机），对于这件事情居然一个推特没发。我虽然说我看不懂马斯克，但心中还是有几个解释，先把问题抛在这里，这件事究竟怎么解读？任何一个看上去很难的分析，后面都是机会。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2c0b8b70e62c31099a0930308087d87","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TWTR":"Twitter"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197886521","content_text":"马斯克和推特的事情我写了不少。首次看到马斯克买入推特股票，我的反应是马斯克绝对不会甘愿做一个被动投资人，必将对推特董事会发起进攻；后来马斯克正式抛出了收购要约，我的反应就是立刻离场或者做空推特股票，经过一些列计算，我算出马斯克的钱不够；再到后来马斯克开始在推特上挑刺机器人的消息，我的反应就是马斯克要耍赖了…可以说，每一次马斯克有任何动作，我都能精准算出他的意图和他的下一步。但是今天马斯克突然给推特发信，宣布将按照原价收购推特，我看不懂了。今天推特股价受此消息影响，大涨22%，收盘价$52.00，离收购价$54.20一步之遥（下图）。在这个价位又有一个套利机会产生，做空推特，用收入去买美国国债。别看现在马斯克又愿意重新收购推特，即使双方配合再加上监管不阻拦，要结束收购也是1年甚至更长时间。要知道，马斯克首次提出收购要约的时候，正好是4月4日，距今已经半年了，收购的时间是很容易拖得很长的。假设最后收购成功（假设1年），那么做空的损失是年化2.2/52 = 4.2%。但是把做空的收入直接拿去买1年期国债，那么1年的收益差不多是3.9%。也就是说，这个组合最大的损失就是4.2%- 3.9% = 0.3%，可以忽略不计，唯一需要考虑的是融券的成本（今天的融券成本差不多是0.25%，也可以忽略不计）。但向上的收益就很大了，万一马斯克又反悔了呢？或者监管跳出来阻拦呢？或者马斯克的银行们突然不愿意借贷了呢？或者特斯拉股价暴跌导致马斯克钱不够呢？……有太多可能性这个收购案不能成功了。每次看到股价逼近收购价，其实都是暗示做空的机会来了。我是真的看不懂为何有买家会愿意在这个时候用$52买入，还不如去买美国国债。说回马斯克，这是他今天给SEC发的信，一副非常愿意配合收购的样子。On October 3, 2022, the Reporting Person’s advisors sent a letter to Twitter (on the Reporting Person’s behalf) notifying Twitter that the Reporting Person intends to proceed to closing of the transaction contemplated by the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein and pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing contemplated thereby, provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action, Twitter vs. Musk, et al. (C.A. No. 202-0613-KSJM), and adjourn the trial and all other proceedings related thereto pending such closing or further order of the court. The foregoing description of the letter is qualified in its entirety by reference to the full text of the letter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit S and incorporated herein by reference.比较吊诡的是，一向喜欢在推特上解释自己动机的马斯克（卖股票的动机，收购推特的动机，俄乌和平协议提出的动机），对于这件事情居然一个推特没发。我虽然说我看不懂马斯克，但心中还是有几个解释，先把问题抛在这里，这件事究竟怎么解读？任何一个看上去很难的分析，后面都是机会。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":312761268646200,"gmtCreate":1717391868325,"gmtModify":1717393285496,"author":{"id":"3473281345429677","authorId":"3473281345429677","name":"举白","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b75584da9d2d7f8fdef75df9a195d5f7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3473281345429677","idStr":"3473281345429677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"那就是整体跌，个别涨的格局！","listText":"那就是整体跌，个别涨的格局！","text":"那就是整体跌，个别涨的格局！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312761268646200","repostId":"2440211130","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2440211130","pubTimestamp":1717371309,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2440211130?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-03 07:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"切换时间到了吗？英伟达 VS 道指！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2440211130","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"投资者或可考虑把注意力转移到此前被市场冷落的道指成分股上。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>摘要：在AI交易热潮逐渐褪去的背景下，投资者或可考虑把注意力转移到此前被市场冷落的道指成分股上。</p></blockquote><p>今年以来，人工智能无疑成为推动美股反弹的最大动力，但最新一轮财报季也给投资者敲响了警钟——AI概念股风险与回报的高低并存格局愈发明显。人工智能交易对整个市场的拉动作用已经出现了颓势，市场风格切换的时机可能即将到来。</p><p>AI概念股本轮财报季的表现可谓喜忧参半。一方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PATH\">UiPath</a>的CEO意外离职令该股应声重挫34%。但另一方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">惠普</a>等公司凭借着布局AI领域而获得资金青睐，股价翻番。总体来看，数据显示自ChatGPT发布以来，86%的“AI引用”公司财报均超预期，其他行业则只有78%。而且，这些公司的股价在业绩超预期时的平均上涨0.3%，高于传统公司0.3%的平均跌幅。</p><p>不过，倘若业绩令投资者失望，AI概念股的平均跌幅高达5.3%，远超过传统公司2.5%的平均跌幅。这种高回报伴随高风险的格局，意味着投资者如果想继续追捧AI概念股，需要更加谨慎。</p><p>在整个AI题材中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>无疑是关键所在。在5月22日财报公布之前，该股与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的相关性高达0.95，二者的涨跌走势基本同步。</p><p>然而，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>财报公布后却出现了分化。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI策略师Julian Emanuel指出，尽管该股在绩后3个交易日内上涨20%，但标普500指数在这期间基本持平，相关性出现显著下降。</p><p>这一变化令市场分析人士惊讶不已，因为过去30年来从未出现过标普500指数中市值位居前五大成分股出现如此大涨，而指数本身却基本没有跟随上涨的情况。有机构认为，<strong>英伟达股价与整体市场开始出现背离，可能意味着“一个股票代表一个市场”的时代临近结束。</strong></p><p>事实上，本周以来，CBOE波动率指数VIX已从11.93升至14.51，市场噪音有所增加。在AI概念交易热潮逐渐褪去的背景下，投资者或可考虑把注意力转移到此前被市场冷落的道指成分股上。</p><p>今年以来，传统公司占比较大的道指涨幅仅为1.2%，远跑输标普500和纳指。不过，5月17日创下40000点新高以来，道指已经下跌近5%，目前出现了自2022年9月以来的最大超卖程度。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>切换时间到了吗？英伟达 VS 道指！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n切换时间到了吗？英伟达 VS 道指！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-03 07:35 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3716303><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：在AI交易热潮逐渐褪去的背景下，投资者或可考虑把注意力转移到此前被市场冷落的道指成分股上。今年以来，人工智能无疑成为推动美股反弹的最大动力，但最新一轮财报季也给投资者敲响了警钟——AI概念股风险与回报的高低并存格局愈发明显。人工智能交易对整个市场的拉动作用已经出现了颓势，市场风格切换的时机可能即将到来。AI概念股本轮财报季的表现可谓喜忧参半。一方面，UiPath的CEO意外离职令该股应声重挫...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3716303\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd4bd497e9fce973759fee32dae90bf","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3716303","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2440211130","content_text":"摘要：在AI交易热潮逐渐褪去的背景下，投资者或可考虑把注意力转移到此前被市场冷落的道指成分股上。今年以来，人工智能无疑成为推动美股反弹的最大动力，但最新一轮财报季也给投资者敲响了警钟——AI概念股风险与回报的高低并存格局愈发明显。人工智能交易对整个市场的拉动作用已经出现了颓势，市场风格切换的时机可能即将到来。AI概念股本轮财报季的表现可谓喜忧参半。一方面，UiPath的CEO意外离职令该股应声重挫34%。但另一方面，惠普等公司凭借着布局AI领域而获得资金青睐，股价翻番。总体来看，数据显示自ChatGPT发布以来，86%的“AI引用”公司财报均超预期，其他行业则只有78%。而且，这些公司的股价在业绩超预期时的平均上涨0.3%，高于传统公司0.3%的平均跌幅。不过，倘若业绩令投资者失望，AI概念股的平均跌幅高达5.3%，远超过传统公司2.5%的平均跌幅。这种高回报伴随高风险的格局，意味着投资者如果想继续追捧AI概念股，需要更加谨慎。在整个AI题材中，英伟达无疑是关键所在。在5月22日财报公布之前，该股与标普500指数的相关性高达0.95，二者的涨跌走势基本同步。然而，英伟达财报公布后却出现了分化。Evercore ISI策略师Julian Emanuel指出，尽管该股在绩后3个交易日内上涨20%，但标普500指数在这期间基本持平，相关性出现显著下降。这一变化令市场分析人士惊讶不已，因为过去30年来从未出现过标普500指数中市值位居前五大成分股出现如此大涨，而指数本身却基本没有跟随上涨的情况。有机构认为，英伟达股价与整体市场开始出现背离，可能意味着“一个股票代表一个市场”的时代临近结束。事实上，本周以来，CBOE波动率指数VIX已从11.93升至14.51，市场噪音有所增加。在AI概念交易热潮逐渐褪去的背景下，投资者或可考虑把注意力转移到此前被市场冷落的道指成分股上。今年以来，传统公司占比较大的道指涨幅仅为1.2%，远跑输标普500和纳指。不过，5月17日创下40000点新高以来，道指已经下跌近5%，目前出现了自2022年9月以来的最大超卖程度。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684715300,"gmtCreate":1660607015504,"gmtModify":1660612773455,"author":{"id":"3473281345429677","authorId":"3473281345429677","name":"举白","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b75584da9d2d7f8fdef75df9a195d5f7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3473281345429677","idStr":"3473281345429677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>对特斯拉(TSLA)表态看多看空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>对特斯拉(TSLA)表态看多看空","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$对特斯拉(TSLA)表态看多看空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/684715300","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
