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07-13

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

史上最大泡沫的半导体公司

2023-07-28

$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$ 真是个人才，哈哈哈😄

2023-06-27

$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$ 三年，五毛到五毛，历史在轮回😳

2023-05-22

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$

2023-04-21

$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$ 难以置信

2023-03-29

$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$ 过山车

2022-03-14

$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$惨，不忍睹

2022-03-08

$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$切肤之痛

2022-01-25

$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$天道轮回呀

2022-01-22

$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$无语

2022-01-21

$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$刺激呀

2022-01-20

$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$初试身手

2022-01-19

$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$涨了个锤子，一步一步逼近成本线！

2022-01-14

$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$从2400%跌到了400%，这是啥道理呀？

2022-01-07

$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$CTND，每天都创新低！

2021-11-18

$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$聊表安慰

2021-09-23

$Sonim Technologies Inc(SONM)$脸都绿了

2021-09-16

$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$人生赢家？

2021-09-16

$Sonim Technologies Inc(SONM)$老虎忽悠人啦

2021-09-16

$Sonim Technologies Inc(SONM)$NNND, kill without bleeding.

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17:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"史上最大泡沫的半导体公司","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190539978","media":"格隆汇","summary":"软银成最大赢家谁是全球最大泡沫的半导体公司？如果对比另外一个半导体公司，英伟达的估值可以说低得可怜。ARM的商业模式较为独特，主要通过授权半导体公司、原始设备制造商等使用其架构来设计和制造芯片，即销售IP核，收取授权许可费和版税。这一新规实质上要求这些客户在现用的解决方案和ARM之间二选一。加上去年9月才上市，目前流通盘非常低，占总股本的比例约12%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>软银成最大赢家</p></blockquote><p>谁是全球最大泡沫的半导体公司？</p><p>有人说是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>。</p><p>但是，英伟达的动态估值只有60倍，以它仍然无懈可击的GPU产品，以及垄断市场的地位，你很难说这个估值高得离谱，何况，AI未来是何等的星辰大海。</p><p>更重要的是，英伟达完全能够交得出业绩，90%的毛利率，50%的净利率，一年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元的净利润，距离<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>的水平也不是很遥远，你可以说英伟达的估值不便宜，但说是泡沫，似乎也不妥。</p><p>如果对比另外一个半导体公司，英伟达的估值可以说低得可怜。</p><p>因为那家半导体公司的动态PE，是英伟达的10倍。不到一年时间，它的市值暴涨4倍，接近2000亿美元。<strong>而一年的营收，在30亿美元的水平，净利润只有区区3亿美元，算下来，PE接近600倍。</strong></p><p>这家公司叫ARM。</p><h3 id=\"id_1021445343\" style=\"text-align: left;\">01、走向垄断？</h3><p>一门生意赚不赚钱，<strong>商业模式</strong>是一个决定性因素。</p><p>比如垄断型的商业模式，就能够创造惊人的利润，英伟达、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>等大型科技公司，或多或少都属于垄断行业，至少他们所在的领域，基本看不到竞争对手能够挑战他们的地位。</p><p>虽然会面临反垄断的监管风险，但如果是因为竞争对手确实无力挑战它，这种垄断其实无需担心，大不了定时支付罚款就是了，美国的大型科技公司基本都是如此。</p><p><strong>ARM的商业模式较为独特，主要通过授权半导体公司、原始设备制造商(OEM)等使用其架构来设计和制造芯片，即销售IP核（指令集+微架构），收取授权许可费和版税。</strong></p><p>虽然没有直接设计芯片，但ARM提供的公版架构，让芯片开发门槛大大降低，又保留了一定的研发空间，下游芯片设计厂商可自研提升芯片性能上限，加之兼具高性能低功耗的特点。因此众多的芯片公司都在使用ARM的架构，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、英伟达。</p><p><strong>目前，智能手机的基带芯片，99%都是采用ARM架构进行设计的，这个风潮是由苹果牵起的。</strong></p><p>而随着苹果在PC芯片上、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>在IDC服务器芯片采用ARM架构，ARM开始走出智能手机领域，向着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>、AMD的后院发起冲击，并且已经取得了一定的成绩。</p><p>上个月初，微软在build大会上，宣布将推出更多的windows on ARM的产品，ARM达到了有史以来最辉煌的时刻。</p><p>加上在AI时代，电力短缺的问题已经摆上台面，所以有声音认为，ARM凭借看家本领--<strong>低功耗</strong>，大有将英特尔、AMD的x86架构挤出市场，一统天下的趋势。</p><p>然而，这种说法太乐观了，因为ARM很可能走不到垄断这一步。</p><h3 id=\"id_4124079166\" style=\"text-align: left;\">02、老对手反击</h3><p>传统的PC芯片厂，英特尔、AMD也在发力AI PC。</p><p>ARM可能在功耗方面仍然有优势，但PC不是手机，PC可以连接电源，所以对于功耗的需求没有手机那么高，仅仅因为低功耗就想把x86架构扫地出门，比较难。实际上，如果有更好的代工工艺，x86架构的功耗未必完全没有还手之力。</p><p>在软件生态上，ARM还无法和x86相比，因为x86是从1980年代开始积累。而ARM是从苹果M1芯片开始，才正式建立pc软件生态。</p><p>ARM会在PC领域占据一定的份额，这份额还相当可观。Counterpoint预测，基于ARM的笔记本电脑的份额将在25年增加到21%，在27年增加到25%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7199b07cf321bf85dc68bb6c76366d8\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"529\"/></p><p>现在，消费电子如PC、手机，整体销量都处于饱和状态，虽然有AI加持，但只是结构性的替换，不是总量的翻倍。</p><p>ARM确定性比较高的增量市场，其实是来自windows on ARM，而且微软和高通已经推出相应的产品。具体能够增长多少，就取决于这类AI PC的出货量。</p><p>但是，仅仅依靠如上图这种的蚕食速度，想要盈利翻几倍，还很难。</p><p><strong>如果盈利无法快速翻倍，ARM又如何能说服市场，600倍的估值并不高？</strong></p><p>ARM过去几年的营收和利润增速表现，增速是有的，但很难说得上是爆发式，未来它又如何证明自己会有逆天的表现？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8add1f45ff2f7ecf0dbdd5fd8c24f511\" tg-width=\"729\" tg-height=\"472\"/></p><p>我们再仔细拆解一下ARM的主要收入来源：</p><p><strong>第一，是许可收入。</strong>客户支付费用以获得ARM产品的许可，进而开发基于ARM架构的处理器。根据ARM官网披露，其最新的收费计划是：芯片厂商可以选择每年支付7.5万美元或者20万美元的访问权限费（access fee），从而获得ARM的一款或者全部设计方案投产芯片。</p><p><strong>第二，是版税收入。</strong>当基于ARM产品的处理器设计完成并开始生产时，ARM会从客户那里收取一笔IP授权费，并在后续按芯片颗数收取版税，通常为芯片售价的1%-2%，FY23平均费率为芯片定价的2.7%。</p><p>因此，ARM想要提升收入，有两条路，<strong>一条是收获更多的芯片设计厂商</strong>，这样许可收入和IP授权费就会更多，<strong>另一条是设计厂商卖出更多的基于ARM架构的芯片，</strong>这样按芯片数收取的版税就更多。</p><p>现在看，这两条路都是可行的。</p><p>ARM的授权伙伴以每年30-40家的速度增加。而随着苹果基于ARM架构的PC的成功，以及微软的加入，会带动一批PC厂商采用ARM架构的CPU。</p><p>换言之，会有更多的基于ARM的PC出货。</p><p>但是，老对手也在奋力反击，胜利并未一边倒在ARM这边。</p><h3 id=\"id_3112482315\" style=\"text-align: left;\">03、新对手追赶</h3><p>2023年，ARM的一个新对手出现了。</p><p>起因是ARM过于激进的增收手段。</p><p>2022年，ARM提出新规，从2024年开始，如果使用ARM公版CPU，必须搭配使用ARM公版GPU、NPU以及ISP。这一新规实质上要求这些客户在现用的解决方案和ARM之间二选一。要么放弃ARM，寻找新的CPU架构，要么换掉所有自研或第三方的芯片，全部改为ARM公版架构。</p><p>2023年3月，ARM计划改变授权模式，效仿高通把定价基础从芯片售价变成终端售价，<strong>每台手机收取其售价1-2%的授权费用，虽然比例没变，但实际上涨价幅度达到十倍左右。</strong></p><p>但这触动了用户的核心利益，特别是涨价10倍，没有哪个客户能够忍受这种做法。</p><p>于是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>组建了自研CPU内核架构的团队，准备于2027年在手机和笔记本电脑产品中将ARM芯片替换为自研的Galaxy Chip；高通也加速了离开ARM的决定，准备最快在下一代骁龙8 Gen4中使用自研架构Nuvia。高通收购的Nuvia，本身已购买过ARM部分IP，双方因Nuvia的IP是否还需要向ARM支付授权费而展开诉讼。</p><p><strong>而最为激进的应对，是2023年6月，基于精简指令集的RISC-V软件生态系统（RISE）成立。</strong></p><p>成员包括谷歌、英特尔、联发科、英伟达、高通、三星等。合资公司成立于德国，旨在加速基于开源RISC-V架构未来产品的商业化。最初的应用重点将是汽车，但最终将扩展到移动设备和物联网。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36b9b1e600b5acd9e4905f4cff414b40\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"455\"/></p><p>和ARM不一样的，是RISC-V兼有开源的优点，不属于任何一个公司，或任何一个国家。</p><p>目前，RISC-V出货的芯片数量已经达到100亿，相比ARM累积出货量2500亿颗还很小，但增速非常快。RISC-V国际基金会预计，RISC-V处理器IP渗透率将从 2022年的1%增长至2027年的16%。</p><p>可以说，ARM的激进，逼出了一个强大的竞争对手。</p><p>前有老对手的反击，后有新对手的追赶，ARM要面对的问题，会越来越棘手。</p><h3 id=\"id_1695585561\" style=\"text-align: left;\">04、软银控盘？</h3><p>基本面以外，很多都发现了一个支撑ARM股价上涨的关键因素。</p><p><strong>ARM的持股结构中，软银占据了88.7%。加上去年9月才上市，目前流通盘非常低，占总股本的比例约12%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de04835d4f808510442e42102a23ad2\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"402\"/></p><p>这引发了市场的质疑，软银在故意控盘。因为在金融市场上，有很多的类似的案例。</p><p>比如港股的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">恒大汽车</a>，还有纳斯达克电动车公司vinfast。这些公司的经历非常类似，都是大股东持股很高，股价短期内大幅拉升数10倍之后，突然暴跌9成，甚至更多，最后留下一地鸡毛。</p><p>但是，ARM已经有成熟的产品、商业模式和业绩，不像这两个汽车公司一样，拿个车壳就说自己是造车新势力，纯粹画大饼割韭菜。</p><p>而且，软银的孙正义也不是许家印这流，人家可是全球著名的科技投资公司老板，做的都是正经生意，绝非刻意，也不需要通过资本市场割韭菜发大财。</p><p>ARM的暴涨，也有客观因素，比如AI实在太火热，资本炒作的热情实在太高，见到个AI沾边的票就疯炒。</p><p>所以，ARM股价暴涨，归罪于孙正义故意控盘，有失偏颇，实际上，他什么都不用做，任由市场疯炒即可。</p><p>2月份的时候，有观点认为软银持股解禁，出于回笼资金的需要，孙正义有可能大幅抛售ARM，结果到现在也没有出现。</p><p><strong>可能的原因，是孙正义不像两年前那么缺钱。既然如此，就无需大幅抛售，因为ARM明显继续受益于AI热潮。</strong></p><p>谁会在这个时候跟钱过不去呢？</p><p>再说，即使有资金需求，孙正义通过ARM持股回笼资金的方式也很多，比如质押、远期合约等等，无需直接在二级市场上抛售，引发股价波动。</p><p>作为资本市场的老手，孙正义比任何人都清楚这些道理。</p><h3 id=\"id_4285672767\" style=\"text-align: left;\">05、结语</h3><p>美股市场依然很火热，单就行情而言，很难说短期内会崩盘。</p><p>因为支撑美股市场的几个重要因素，都看不到有利空。宏观经济数据很好，流动性又有降息预期，AI的赚钱效应也很旺盛，资金做多热情很高。</p><p>事实上，只要资金仍然扎堆AI，ARM也会分到一杯羹，加上流通盘比较小。即使它继续上涨，市值到2500亿，甚至更高，我都不觉得奇怪。</p><p>因为牛市就是这样，历史上发生过无数次。</p><p>我们只是想提醒投资者，当估值被炒到600倍的时候，你就不应该单纯地被市场上拼命让你all in的声音牵着鼻子走，而应该静下心来想一想，这到底合理吗？有没有可能存在巨大的泡沫？</p><p>就如巴老所说，<strong>别人疯狂我恐惧。</strong></p><p>这可能会让你少赚一些钱，但如果将来可以避免更大的损失，那也是值得的。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>史上最大泡沫的半导体公司</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n史上最大泡沫的半导体公司\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-13 17:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>软银成最大赢家</p></blockquote><p>谁是全球最大泡沫的半导体公司？</p><p>有人说是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>。</p><p>但是，英伟达的动态估值只有60倍，以它仍然无懈可击的GPU产品，以及垄断市场的地位，你很难说这个估值高得离谱，何况，AI未来是何等的星辰大海。</p><p>更重要的是，英伟达完全能够交得出业绩，90%的毛利率，50%的净利率，一年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元的净利润，距离<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>的水平也不是很遥远，你可以说英伟达的估值不便宜，但说是泡沫，似乎也不妥。</p><p>如果对比另外一个半导体公司，英伟达的估值可以说低得可怜。</p><p>因为那家半导体公司的动态PE，是英伟达的10倍。不到一年时间，它的市值暴涨4倍，接近2000亿美元。<strong>而一年的营收，在30亿美元的水平，净利润只有区区3亿美元，算下来，PE接近600倍。</strong></p><p>这家公司叫ARM。</p><h3 id=\"id_1021445343\" style=\"text-align: left;\">01、走向垄断？</h3><p>一门生意赚不赚钱，<strong>商业模式</strong>是一个决定性因素。</p><p>比如垄断型的商业模式，就能够创造惊人的利润，英伟达、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>等大型科技公司，或多或少都属于垄断行业，至少他们所在的领域，基本看不到竞争对手能够挑战他们的地位。</p><p>虽然会面临反垄断的监管风险，但如果是因为竞争对手确实无力挑战它，这种垄断其实无需担心，大不了定时支付罚款就是了，美国的大型科技公司基本都是如此。</p><p><strong>ARM的商业模式较为独特，主要通过授权半导体公司、原始设备制造商(OEM)等使用其架构来设计和制造芯片，即销售IP核（指令集+微架构），收取授权许可费和版税。</strong></p><p>虽然没有直接设计芯片，但ARM提供的公版架构，让芯片开发门槛大大降低，又保留了一定的研发空间，下游芯片设计厂商可自研提升芯片性能上限，加之兼具高性能低功耗的特点。因此众多的芯片公司都在使用ARM的架构，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、英伟达。</p><p><strong>目前，智能手机的基带芯片，99%都是采用ARM架构进行设计的，这个风潮是由苹果牵起的。</strong></p><p>而随着苹果在PC芯片上、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>在IDC服务器芯片采用ARM架构，ARM开始走出智能手机领域，向着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>、AMD的后院发起冲击，并且已经取得了一定的成绩。</p><p>上个月初，微软在build大会上，宣布将推出更多的windows on ARM的产品，ARM达到了有史以来最辉煌的时刻。</p><p>加上在AI时代，电力短缺的问题已经摆上台面，所以有声音认为，ARM凭借看家本领--<strong>低功耗</strong>，大有将英特尔、AMD的x86架构挤出市场，一统天下的趋势。</p><p>然而，这种说法太乐观了，因为ARM很可能走不到垄断这一步。</p><h3 id=\"id_4124079166\" style=\"text-align: left;\">02、老对手反击</h3><p>传统的PC芯片厂，英特尔、AMD也在发力AI PC。</p><p>ARM可能在功耗方面仍然有优势，但PC不是手机，PC可以连接电源，所以对于功耗的需求没有手机那么高，仅仅因为低功耗就想把x86架构扫地出门，比较难。实际上，如果有更好的代工工艺，x86架构的功耗未必完全没有还手之力。</p><p>在软件生态上，ARM还无法和x86相比，因为x86是从1980年代开始积累。而ARM是从苹果M1芯片开始，才正式建立pc软件生态。</p><p>ARM会在PC领域占据一定的份额，这份额还相当可观。Counterpoint预测，基于ARM的笔记本电脑的份额将在25年增加到21%，在27年增加到25%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7199b07cf321bf85dc68bb6c76366d8\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"529\"/></p><p>现在，消费电子如PC、手机，整体销量都处于饱和状态，虽然有AI加持，但只是结构性的替换，不是总量的翻倍。</p><p>ARM确定性比较高的增量市场，其实是来自windows on ARM，而且微软和高通已经推出相应的产品。具体能够增长多少，就取决于这类AI PC的出货量。</p><p>但是，仅仅依靠如上图这种的蚕食速度，想要盈利翻几倍，还很难。</p><p><strong>如果盈利无法快速翻倍，ARM又如何能说服市场，600倍的估值并不高？</strong></p><p>ARM过去几年的营收和利润增速表现，增速是有的，但很难说得上是爆发式，未来它又如何证明自己会有逆天的表现？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8add1f45ff2f7ecf0dbdd5fd8c24f511\" tg-width=\"729\" tg-height=\"472\"/></p><p>我们再仔细拆解一下ARM的主要收入来源：</p><p><strong>第一，是许可收入。</strong>客户支付费用以获得ARM产品的许可，进而开发基于ARM架构的处理器。根据ARM官网披露，其最新的收费计划是：芯片厂商可以选择每年支付7.5万美元或者20万美元的访问权限费（access fee），从而获得ARM的一款或者全部设计方案投产芯片。</p><p><strong>第二，是版税收入。</strong>当基于ARM产品的处理器设计完成并开始生产时，ARM会从客户那里收取一笔IP授权费，并在后续按芯片颗数收取版税，通常为芯片售价的1%-2%，FY23平均费率为芯片定价的2.7%。</p><p>因此，ARM想要提升收入，有两条路，<strong>一条是收获更多的芯片设计厂商</strong>，这样许可收入和IP授权费就会更多，<strong>另一条是设计厂商卖出更多的基于ARM架构的芯片，</strong>这样按芯片数收取的版税就更多。</p><p>现在看，这两条路都是可行的。</p><p>ARM的授权伙伴以每年30-40家的速度增加。而随着苹果基于ARM架构的PC的成功，以及微软的加入，会带动一批PC厂商采用ARM架构的CPU。</p><p>换言之，会有更多的基于ARM的PC出货。</p><p>但是，老对手也在奋力反击，胜利并未一边倒在ARM这边。</p><h3 id=\"id_3112482315\" style=\"text-align: left;\">03、新对手追赶</h3><p>2023年，ARM的一个新对手出现了。</p><p>起因是ARM过于激进的增收手段。</p><p>2022年，ARM提出新规，从2024年开始，如果使用ARM公版CPU，必须搭配使用ARM公版GPU、NPU以及ISP。这一新规实质上要求这些客户在现用的解决方案和ARM之间二选一。要么放弃ARM，寻找新的CPU架构，要么换掉所有自研或第三方的芯片，全部改为ARM公版架构。</p><p>2023年3月，ARM计划改变授权模式，效仿高通把定价基础从芯片售价变成终端售价，<strong>每台手机收取其售价1-2%的授权费用，虽然比例没变，但实际上涨价幅度达到十倍左右。</strong></p><p>但这触动了用户的核心利益，特别是涨价10倍，没有哪个客户能够忍受这种做法。</p><p>于是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>组建了自研CPU内核架构的团队，准备于2027年在手机和笔记本电脑产品中将ARM芯片替换为自研的Galaxy Chip；高通也加速了离开ARM的决定，准备最快在下一代骁龙8 Gen4中使用自研架构Nuvia。高通收购的Nuvia，本身已购买过ARM部分IP，双方因Nuvia的IP是否还需要向ARM支付授权费而展开诉讼。</p><p><strong>而最为激进的应对，是2023年6月，基于精简指令集的RISC-V软件生态系统（RISE）成立。</strong></p><p>成员包括谷歌、英特尔、联发科、英伟达、高通、三星等。合资公司成立于德国，旨在加速基于开源RISC-V架构未来产品的商业化。最初的应用重点将是汽车，但最终将扩展到移动设备和物联网。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36b9b1e600b5acd9e4905f4cff414b40\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"455\"/></p><p>和ARM不一样的，是RISC-V兼有开源的优点，不属于任何一个公司，或任何一个国家。</p><p>目前，RISC-V出货的芯片数量已经达到100亿，相比ARM累积出货量2500亿颗还很小，但增速非常快。RISC-V国际基金会预计，RISC-V处理器IP渗透率将从 2022年的1%增长至2027年的16%。</p><p>可以说，ARM的激进，逼出了一个强大的竞争对手。</p><p>前有老对手的反击，后有新对手的追赶，ARM要面对的问题，会越来越棘手。</p><h3 id=\"id_1695585561\" style=\"text-align: left;\">04、软银控盘？</h3><p>基本面以外，很多都发现了一个支撑ARM股价上涨的关键因素。</p><p><strong>ARM的持股结构中，软银占据了88.7%。加上去年9月才上市，目前流通盘非常低，占总股本的比例约12%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de04835d4f808510442e42102a23ad2\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"402\"/></p><p>这引发了市场的质疑，软银在故意控盘。因为在金融市场上，有很多的类似的案例。</p><p>比如港股的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">恒大汽车</a>，还有纳斯达克电动车公司vinfast。这些公司的经历非常类似，都是大股东持股很高，股价短期内大幅拉升数10倍之后，突然暴跌9成，甚至更多，最后留下一地鸡毛。</p><p>但是，ARM已经有成熟的产品、商业模式和业绩，不像这两个汽车公司一样，拿个车壳就说自己是造车新势力，纯粹画大饼割韭菜。</p><p>而且，软银的孙正义也不是许家印这流，人家可是全球著名的科技投资公司老板，做的都是正经生意，绝非刻意，也不需要通过资本市场割韭菜发大财。</p><p>ARM的暴涨，也有客观因素，比如AI实在太火热，资本炒作的热情实在太高，见到个AI沾边的票就疯炒。</p><p>所以，ARM股价暴涨，归罪于孙正义故意控盘，有失偏颇，实际上，他什么都不用做，任由市场疯炒即可。</p><p>2月份的时候，有观点认为软银持股解禁，出于回笼资金的需要，孙正义有可能大幅抛售ARM，结果到现在也没有出现。</p><p><strong>可能的原因，是孙正义不像两年前那么缺钱。既然如此，就无需大幅抛售，因为ARM明显继续受益于AI热潮。</strong></p><p>谁会在这个时候跟钱过不去呢？</p><p>再说，即使有资金需求，孙正义通过ARM持股回笼资金的方式也很多，比如质押、远期合约等等，无需直接在二级市场上抛售，引发股价波动。</p><p>作为资本市场的老手，孙正义比任何人都清楚这些道理。</p><h3 id=\"id_4285672767\" style=\"text-align: left;\">05、结语</h3><p>美股市场依然很火热，单就行情而言，很难说短期内会崩盘。</p><p>因为支撑美股市场的几个重要因素，都看不到有利空。宏观经济数据很好，流动性又有降息预期，AI的赚钱效应也很旺盛，资金做多热情很高。</p><p>事实上，只要资金仍然扎堆AI，ARM也会分到一杯羹，加上流通盘比较小。即使它继续上涨，市值到2500亿，甚至更高，我都不觉得奇怪。</p><p>因为牛市就是这样，历史上发生过无数次。</p><p>我们只是想提醒投资者，当估值被炒到600倍的时候，你就不应该单纯地被市场上拼命让你all in的声音牵着鼻子走，而应该静下心来想一想，这到底合理吗？有没有可能存在巨大的泡沫？</p><p>就如巴老所说，<strong>别人疯狂我恐惧。</strong></p><p>这可能会让你少赚一些钱，但如果将来可以避免更大的损失，那也是值得的。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"ARM":"ARM Holdings"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190539978","content_text":"软银成最大赢家谁是全球最大泡沫的半导体公司？有人说是英伟达。但是，英伟达的动态估值只有60倍，以它仍然无懈可击的GPU产品，以及垄断市场的地位，你很难说这个估值高得离谱，何况，AI未来是何等的星辰大海。更重要的是，英伟达完全能够交得出业绩，90%的毛利率，50%的净利率，一年数百亿美元的净利润，距离微软的水平也不是很遥远，你可以说英伟达的估值不便宜，但说是泡沫，似乎也不妥。如果对比另外一个半导体公司，英伟达的估值可以说低得可怜。因为那家半导体公司的动态PE，是英伟达的10倍。不到一年时间，它的市值暴涨4倍，接近2000亿美元。而一年的营收，在30亿美元的水平，净利润只有区区3亿美元，算下来，PE接近600倍。这家公司叫ARM。01、走向垄断？一门生意赚不赚钱，商业模式是一个决定性因素。比如垄断型的商业模式，就能够创造惊人的利润，英伟达、微软、谷歌等大型科技公司，或多或少都属于垄断行业，至少他们所在的领域，基本看不到竞争对手能够挑战他们的地位。虽然会面临反垄断的监管风险，但如果是因为竞争对手确实无力挑战它，这种垄断其实无需担心，大不了定时支付罚款就是了，美国的大型科技公司基本都是如此。ARM的商业模式较为独特，主要通过授权半导体公司、原始设备制造商(OEM)等使用其架构来设计和制造芯片，即销售IP核（指令集+微架构），收取授权许可费和版税。虽然没有直接设计芯片，但ARM提供的公版架构，让芯片开发门槛大大降低，又保留了一定的研发空间，下游芯片设计厂商可自研提升芯片性能上限，加之兼具高性能低功耗的特点。因此众多的芯片公司都在使用ARM的架构，包括苹果、高通、英伟达。目前，智能手机的基带芯片，99%都是采用ARM架构进行设计的，这个风潮是由苹果牵起的。而随着苹果在PC芯片上、亚马逊在IDC服务器芯片采用ARM架构，ARM开始走出智能手机领域，向着英特尔、AMD的后院发起冲击，并且已经取得了一定的成绩。上个月初，微软在build大会上，宣布将推出更多的windows on ARM的产品，ARM达到了有史以来最辉煌的时刻。加上在AI时代，电力短缺的问题已经摆上台面，所以有声音认为，ARM凭借看家本领--低功耗，大有将英特尔、AMD的x86架构挤出市场，一统天下的趋势。然而，这种说法太乐观了，因为ARM很可能走不到垄断这一步。02、老对手反击传统的PC芯片厂，英特尔、AMD也在发力AI PC。ARM可能在功耗方面仍然有优势，但PC不是手机，PC可以连接电源，所以对于功耗的需求没有手机那么高，仅仅因为低功耗就想把x86架构扫地出门，比较难。实际上，如果有更好的代工工艺，x86架构的功耗未必完全没有还手之力。在软件生态上，ARM还无法和x86相比，因为x86是从1980年代开始积累。而ARM是从苹果M1芯片开始，才正式建立pc软件生态。ARM会在PC领域占据一定的份额，这份额还相当可观。Counterpoint预测，基于ARM的笔记本电脑的份额将在25年增加到21%，在27年增加到25%。现在，消费电子如PC、手机，整体销量都处于饱和状态，虽然有AI加持，但只是结构性的替换，不是总量的翻倍。ARM确定性比较高的增量市场，其实是来自windows on ARM，而且微软和高通已经推出相应的产品。具体能够增长多少，就取决于这类AI PC的出货量。但是，仅仅依靠如上图这种的蚕食速度，想要盈利翻几倍，还很难。如果盈利无法快速翻倍，ARM又如何能说服市场，600倍的估值并不高？ARM过去几年的营收和利润增速表现，增速是有的，但很难说得上是爆发式，未来它又如何证明自己会有逆天的表现？我们再仔细拆解一下ARM的主要收入来源：第一，是许可收入。客户支付费用以获得ARM产品的许可，进而开发基于ARM架构的处理器。根据ARM官网披露，其最新的收费计划是：芯片厂商可以选择每年支付7.5万美元或者20万美元的访问权限费（access fee），从而获得ARM的一款或者全部设计方案投产芯片。第二，是版税收入。当基于ARM产品的处理器设计完成并开始生产时，ARM会从客户那里收取一笔IP授权费，并在后续按芯片颗数收取版税，通常为芯片售价的1%-2%，FY23平均费率为芯片定价的2.7%。因此，ARM想要提升收入，有两条路，一条是收获更多的芯片设计厂商，这样许可收入和IP授权费就会更多，另一条是设计厂商卖出更多的基于ARM架构的芯片，这样按芯片数收取的版税就更多。现在看，这两条路都是可行的。ARM的授权伙伴以每年30-40家的速度增加。而随着苹果基于ARM架构的PC的成功，以及微软的加入，会带动一批PC厂商采用ARM架构的CPU。换言之，会有更多的基于ARM的PC出货。但是，老对手也在奋力反击，胜利并未一边倒在ARM这边。03、新对手追赶2023年，ARM的一个新对手出现了。起因是ARM过于激进的增收手段。2022年，ARM提出新规，从2024年开始，如果使用ARM公版CPU，必须搭配使用ARM公版GPU、NPU以及ISP。这一新规实质上要求这些客户在现用的解决方案和ARM之间二选一。要么放弃ARM，寻找新的CPU架构，要么换掉所有自研或第三方的芯片，全部改为ARM公版架构。2023年3月，ARM计划改变授权模式，效仿高通把定价基础从芯片售价变成终端售价，每台手机收取其售价1-2%的授权费用，虽然比例没变，但实际上涨价幅度达到十倍左右。但这触动了用户的核心利益，特别是涨价10倍，没有哪个客户能够忍受这种做法。于是，三星组建了自研CPU内核架构的团队，准备于2027年在手机和笔记本电脑产品中将ARM芯片替换为自研的Galaxy Chip；高通也加速了离开ARM的决定，准备最快在下一代骁龙8 Gen4中使用自研架构Nuvia。高通收购的Nuvia，本身已购买过ARM部分IP，双方因Nuvia的IP是否还需要向ARM支付授权费而展开诉讼。而最为激进的应对，是2023年6月，基于精简指令集的RISC-V软件生态系统（RISE）成立。成员包括谷歌、英特尔、联发科、英伟达、高通、三星等。合资公司成立于德国，旨在加速基于开源RISC-V架构未来产品的商业化。最初的应用重点将是汽车，但最终将扩展到移动设备和物联网。和ARM不一样的，是RISC-V兼有开源的优点，不属于任何一个公司，或任何一个国家。目前，RISC-V出货的芯片数量已经达到100亿，相比ARM累积出货量2500亿颗还很小，但增速非常快。RISC-V国际基金会预计，RISC-V处理器IP渗透率将从 2022年的1%增长至2027年的16%。可以说，ARM的激进，逼出了一个强大的竞争对手。前有老对手的反击，后有新对手的追赶，ARM要面对的问题，会越来越棘手。04、软银控盘？基本面以外，很多都发现了一个支撑ARM股价上涨的关键因素。ARM的持股结构中，软银占据了88.7%。加上去年9月才上市，目前流通盘非常低，占总股本的比例约12%。这引发了市场的质疑，软银在故意控盘。因为在金融市场上，有很多的类似的案例。比如港股的恒大汽车，还有纳斯达克电动车公司vinfast。这些公司的经历非常类似，都是大股东持股很高，股价短期内大幅拉升数10倍之后，突然暴跌9成，甚至更多，最后留下一地鸡毛。但是，ARM已经有成熟的产品、商业模式和业绩，不像这两个汽车公司一样，拿个车壳就说自己是造车新势力，纯粹画大饼割韭菜。而且，软银的孙正义也不是许家印这流，人家可是全球著名的科技投资公司老板，做的都是正经生意，绝非刻意，也不需要通过资本市场割韭菜发大财。ARM的暴涨，也有客观因素，比如AI实在太火热，资本炒作的热情实在太高，见到个AI沾边的票就疯炒。所以，ARM股价暴涨，归罪于孙正义故意控盘，有失偏颇，实际上，他什么都不用做，任由市场疯炒即可。2月份的时候，有观点认为软银持股解禁，出于回笼资金的需要，孙正义有可能大幅抛售ARM，结果到现在也没有出现。可能的原因，是孙正义不像两年前那么缺钱。既然如此，就无需大幅抛售，因为ARM明显继续受益于AI热潮。谁会在这个时候跟钱过不去呢？再说，即使有资金需求，孙正义通过ARM持股回笼资金的方式也很多，比如质押、远期合约等等，无需直接在二级市场上抛售，引发股价波动。作为资本市场的老手，孙正义比任何人都清楚这些道理。05、结语美股市场依然很火热，单就行情而言，很难说短期内会崩盘。因为支撑美股市场的几个重要因素，都看不到有利空。宏观经济数据很好，流动性又有降息预期，AI的赚钱效应也很旺盛，资金做多热情很高。事实上，只要资金仍然扎堆AI，ARM也会分到一杯羹，加上流通盘比较小。即使它继续上涨，市值到2500亿，甚至更高，我都不觉得奇怪。因为牛市就是这样，历史上发生过无数次。我们只是想提醒投资者，当估值被炒到600倍的时候，你就不应该单纯地被市场上拼命让你all in的声音牵着鼻子走，而应该静下心来想一想，这到底合理吗？有没有可能存在巨大的泡沫？就如巴老所说，别人疯狂我恐惧。这可能会让你少赚一些钱，但如果将来可以避免更大的损失，那也是值得的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":202541908922408,"gmtCreate":1690487237428,"gmtModify":1690487459991,"author":{"id":"3472808003384870","authorId":"3472808003384870","name":"joyATM","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3472808003384870","idStr":"3472808003384870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNGO\">$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$&nbsp;</a>真是个人才，哈哈哈😄","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNGO\">$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$&nbsp;</a>真是个人才，哈哈哈😄","text":"$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$ 真是个人才，哈哈哈😄","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b564ef322f8214ef586dbf3f6f3b66de","width":"972","height":"1631"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/202541908922408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":191863660425488,"gmtCreate":1687850878598,"gmtModify":1687852887181,"author":{"id":"3472808003384870","authorId":"3472808003384870","name":"joyATM","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3472808003384870","idStr":"3472808003384870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNGO\">$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$&nbsp;</a>三年，五毛到五毛，历史在轮回😳","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNGO\">$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$&nbsp;</a>三年，五毛到五毛，历史在轮回😳","text":"$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$ 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