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无酒亦醉
2022-04-11
真爱
大和:维持蔚来汽车买入评级,目标价72美元
无酒亦醉
2022-04-01
五菱宏光去年早过万了
零跑都过万了,留给蔚来的时间不多了
无酒亦醉
2022-03-15
$蔚来(NIO)$
半个小时成交了近4000万股,成交量太高了
无酒亦醉
2022-03-01
$蔚来(NIO)$
交付符合预期,比较关心2月份有没有在产ET7的展车和试驾车,产量是多少
无酒亦醉
2022-03-01
符合预期
蔚来汽车:2月交付了6131辆汽车,同比增长9.9%
无酒亦醉
2022-02-24
$蔚来(NIO)$
再跌点就准备加仓了,20以下开始
无酒亦醉
2022-02-14
$蔚来(NIO)$
俄乌冲突没实质性进展,打不下去,不可能一直渲染恐慌。等待2月初的交付数据和年报吧。
无酒亦醉
2022-02-01
$理想汽车(LI)$
基本没啥成交量
无酒亦醉
2022-01-26
$蔚来(NIO)$
上半年工厂有望开启双班吗?
无酒亦醉
2022-01-06
可充可换可升级
蔚来正在陷入换电悖论循环
无酒亦醉
2022-01-03
$蔚来(NIO)$
最近几天的成交量有点大啊,这才半个小时就已经有了2000万的交易量
无酒亦醉
2022-01-03
$蔚来(NIO)$
中概股咋又崩了[捂脸]
无酒亦醉
2022-01-01
$蔚来(NIO)$
从四季度交付量来看,当前三款车的产能和订单量也就是每月8000-10000左右了。当前的三款车都是第一代车型,销量已经没有多大提升空间了,ES7没在Nio Day上发布也是怕挤压2022年第一季度的交付量。销量要有大的提升,得看本年度二代车型上新了,EC6,ES6,ES8也到了更新换代的时候了。大家都知道二代相比一代会有很大提升,价格差异也不大,一代车型买的人会变少,等等党更香。期待蔚来在ET5交付前更新所有SUV车型,在此之前股价难以大跃升啊!
无酒亦醉
2021-12-31
$蔚来(NIO)$
这个成交量真的猛
无酒亦醉
2021-12-31
$蔚来(NIO)$
中概股集体爆发
无酒亦醉
2021-12-25
$蔚来(NIO)$
这个月没有虎友报导挪威销量啊
无酒亦醉
2021-12-23
$Solid Power, Inc(SLDP)$
什么时间才会有热度,非得要等到2022年初造出100Ah电池吗
无酒亦醉
2021-12-18
$蔚来(NIO)$
不是说发布两款新车吗?
无酒亦醉
2021-12-13
$Solid Power, Inc(SLDP)$
老虎上和华盛上显示的股本数量还不一样,华盛上已经1.4亿股了
无酒亦醉
2021-12-09
$Decarbonization Plus Acquisition Corporation III(SLDP)$
股本数量什么时间加上去
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大和:维持蔚来汽车买入评级,目标价72美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-11 15:57 北京时间 <a href=http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/04/11155736303871.shtml><strong>金融界网站</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>大和发表报告表示,蔚来公布受疫情影响整车生产已经暂停。据该行与蔚来管理层进行沟通,料相关停产将是数天(最多10天)。蔚来现有的月产量(ES8、EC6及ES6型号)约为9,000至1万辆,该行停产料影响月产量最多约3,300辆,但同时指出仍存在不确定性。蔚来同时宣布将ES8、ES6及EC6的起售价提高。大和表示,对上述部份车型加价感到意外,因公司此前曾表示不打算提高其建议售价。该行认为蔚来今次提价是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/04/11155736303871.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/04/11155736303871.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2226554688","content_text":"大和发表报告表示,蔚来公布受疫情影响整车生产已经暂停。据该行与蔚来管理层进行沟通,料相关停产将是数天(最多10天)。蔚来现有的月产量(ES8、EC6及ES6型号)约为9,000至1万辆,该行停产料影响月产量最多约3,300辆,但同时指出仍存在不确定性。蔚来同时宣布将ES8、ES6及EC6的起售价提高。大和表示,对上述部份车型加价感到意外,因公司此前曾表示不打算提高其建议售价。该行认为蔚来今次提价是由于上海疫情带来的不确定性,认为上调售价影响积极。鉴于蔚来在溢价中的地位,预计提价对需求的影响很小。该行其指短期损失的风险可控,建议投资者应聚焦其未来推出新车型,估计今年下半年销售强劲。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619014221,"gmtCreate":1648817905861,"gmtModify":1648817905861,"author":{"id":"3472335577605288","authorId":"3472335577605288","name":"无酒亦醉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e8011e10ffd4e038a18c67717567fc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472335577605288","authorIdStr":"3472335577605288"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"五菱宏光去年早过万了","listText":"五菱宏光去年早过万了","text":"五菱宏光去年早过万了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619014221","repostId":"2224934659","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2224934659","pubTimestamp":1648816680,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2224934659?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-01 20:38","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"零跑都过万了,留给蔚来的时间不多了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2224934659","media":"市场资讯","summary":"2022年第一季度,蔚来交付量为25768,相较理想仍有5948辆的差距。官方数据显示,首款轿车ET7在3月28日开启交付后,四天时间已交付163辆。不过在造车新势力中,蔚来率先逼近20万辆大关。这也是零跑历史以来最好的成绩。除了在5月发布 ES8、ES6、EC6的2022年度改款车型,到2022年三季度,蔚来还会交付基于NT2.0平台的另外两款产品ET5和ES7。券商也给予蔚来更高的预期。","content":"<html><body><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/crawl/81/w550h331/20220401/69fc-a5f92d181e92667ee3d790eb127dc609.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/><span>头图来源 | Pixabay</span></div><p>当破万辆成为主旋律。</p><p>作者 | 吴晓宇 <font>编辑</font> | 王妍</p><p>来源:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36氪</a>-未来汽车日报</p><p>4月1日,新造车们的成绩单如期而至。</p><p>在刚刚过去的3月中,适逢传统意义上的销量淡季,再叠加疫情、原材料涨价等因素,成绩单还未出炉,车企老板们便叫苦连连,预告了这场并不好打的月度销量战。</p><p>不过从结果来看,各家仍斩获不少,新造车的座次排位也再度发生变化。其中,小鹏以15414辆成绩喜提新造车销冠,早早公布成绩的哪吒汽车则凭借12026辆再度挺进三强,最后一个席位被理想以11034辆销量拿下。</p><p>值得一提的是,新造车万辆阵营中又多了一员。零跑汽车交付量环比增长193%,达到10059辆,位居第四。</p><p>虽然3月份的生产制造端承受着供应和成本压力,但在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>以一周三连涨的节奏拉开了新一轮涨价潮的序幕后,几乎所有的新能源车企全都跟进完成了本轮幅度不小的涨价,潜在车主们也在月末上演了一场“买跌不买涨”的抢单潮。</p><p>这也意味着,新的一月,愈发激烈的排位赛更值得期待了。</p><p><strong>不好打的3月销量战</strong></p><p>作为第一个交作业的选手,极氪的成绩单并不算亮眼。</p><p>受疫情与芯片供应影响,3月极氪001交付量为1795辆,环比降幅近4成。但极氪表示,随着3月底新一批核心零部件陆续到货,预计4月生产和交付情况“将会得到明显提升”。</p><p>自2021年下半年多次失守冠军位的老大哥<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>,仍未完全恢复元气。</p><p>相较于2月,蔚来3月交付量有所起色,达9985辆,同比增长37.6%,但仍不及小鹏和理想。2022年第一季度,蔚来交付量为25768,相较理想仍有5948辆的差距。</p><p>“2021年是蔚来的新品空窗期,有购买意向的用户大多会优先考虑下定新品”,一位蔚来销售告诉未来汽车日报。官方数据显示,首款轿车ET7在3月28日开启交付后,四天时间已交付163辆。</p><p>不过在造车新势力中,蔚来率先逼近20万辆大关。截至2022年3月底,蔚来累计交付19.28万辆电动车,小鹏紧随其后,超过17万辆,理想为15.58万辆。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/crawl/166/w550h416/20220401/1aea-fa31b8336078693c0036d69a82e53b02.png/w720fin.jpg\"/><span>来源:未来汽车日报制图</span></div><p>但论月交付量,在“蔚小理”三兄弟中,小鹏和理想一直都发挥比较稳定。</p><p>在2021年财报电话会中,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>董事长何小鹏曾透露,今年2月下旬以及3月中上旬,新增订单已迅速恢复到去年12月的旺季水平,“3月交付量接近去年的峰值”。</p><p>成绩也如预期所言。今年3月,小鹏汽车以15414辆,坐上排位赛冠军的宝座。其中P7是当之无愧的顶梁柱,3月交付量达9183辆,占比总销量近6成;小鹏P5在3月交付4398辆。</p><p>“为了加速交付在手订单,以及今年新增的订单,我们在春节期间完成了肇庆工厂的技术改造。”小鹏表示。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>的理想ONE则延续了强大的爆款产品力,交付量再次破万,达11034辆,同比增长125.2%。2022年第一季度,理想汽车累计交付3.17万辆,同比增长152.1%。</p><p>即便单月过万辆的成绩已经算得上出色,但理想汽车联合创始人兼总裁沈亚楠仍表示,“长三角疫情导致部分零部件供应短缺,生产受到牵连”。</p><p>3月26日,在参加活动时,小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏也曾大倒苦水,“疫情影响多个汽车产业链重镇,全国多地产生局部封锁,这对汽车产业链是巨大的打击。”</p><p>在艰难的供应链环境下,也有“黑马”上演了一出逆袭的桥段。</p><p>今年3月,零跑汽车也加入单月过万辆的阵营,交付量达到10059辆,环比增长193%。这也是零跑历史以来最好的成绩。</p><p>目前,零跑主要有三款在售车型,包括轿跑S01、微型车T03,以及中型SUV S11。其中,补贴后价格在6.9万-8.5万元的T03 ,是零跑的“销量担当”。2021年,T03销量占比总销量近80%。</p><p>对于销量的上涨,零跑一家体验店店长肖磊向未来汽车日报解释称,“主要是因为产能提升了,本身每月的订单不愁,就是订货周期太长。”</p><p>零跑招股书显示,截至2021年底,零跑共有22536张C11订单,当年交付了其中的3965辆,至少还有2- 4万辆C11未交付。“通过调整生产线、扩大金华工厂的生产能力,金华工厂3月产能超过1万辆。在此前,月产能是现在的60%左右。”</p><p>而在供应链方面,自去年12月零跑创始人朱江明从大华离职后,“老板亲自抓生产”,在芯片荒面前,“零跑自研芯片也有一定优势”,肖磊认为。</p><p>继1月交付量冲破万辆后,专注于“为人民造车”的哪吒交付量继续爬升。</p><p>3月,哪吒汽车交付量再次跨过万辆的基准线,达到10059辆,同比增长270%。而早在2021年,哪吒汽车便多次夺得亚军位置,蔚小理都曾被其超越,开启逆袭攻势。</p><p>在哪吒汽车CEO张勇看来,销量能够大幅攀升的主要原因就是性价比。“6万到8万、10到15万区间纯电SUV(市场),我们都做到了性价比第一。”</p><p>然而,对于哪吒的销量逆袭,张勇的表现却格外清醒,“短暂地超越没有意义,(哪吒交付量)只有是理想的3倍才能说比它强”。</p><p><strong>二季度会好吗?</strong></p><p>如今站在2022年二季度的起点,很多问题似乎并未有好转。</p><p>继长春封城长达20多天后,上海也在近日宣布进入“停摆”状态。作为两座集聚了众多零部件企业和车企的城市,大面积的封控无疑给汽车业带来不小的影响。这一点蔚来总裁秦力洪也感触颇深,“上海交付中心已经熄火好几天了,会一直持续到清明后。”</p><p>“目前工厂供应链紧张,近四天存在一定减产,预计再过三天可以恢复。”3月31日,接近蔚来合肥工厂的消息人士告诉未来汽车日报。</p><p>生产制造端在努力将损失降到最低。相比之下,销售端则陷入了完全停滞的状态,上海的线下门店几乎全都被封闭管理。</p><p>不止于此,从2020年便开始的缺芯危机至今仍未消解。“芯片依然是个洼地”,秦力洪如此形容。在3月25日的财报电话会上,蔚来创始人李斌解释称,蔚来当下面临的是基础性芯片波动的问题,“如果缺少这些芯片的话,我们也没有办法生产车,当然会有替代料的方法去做,但这样会搞得复杂一点”。</p><p>原材料涨价带来的影响则直接让车企“伤筋动骨”,新能源车企几乎全都完成了本轮涨幅不小的调价。理想CEO李想曾表示,“二季度电池成本上涨的幅度将非常离谱”。李斌则呼吁上游原材料厂商,“要从长期利益出发,不要作个人投机性的涨价”。</p><p>即便困难重重,但从二季度开始,新造车也进入了今年最为关键的时刻。从产品规划上来看,不少新造车都将今年推新车的时间定在今年4月。而在特斯拉处于空窗期的2022年,无疑给新造车们提供了赶超的机会。</p><p>在卖过10万辆生死线后,新造车们纷纷寻找新的突破口,并开始进入对方的赛道。</p><p>3月28日,随着ET7开启交付,蔚来的“产品大年”也正式拉开帷幕。除了在5月发布 ES8、ES6、EC6的2022年度改款车型,到2022年三季度,蔚来还会交付基于NT2.0平台的另外两款产品ET5和ES7。</p><p>蔚来ET7和ET5定位均为轿车,ES7定位为大五座SUV,新的产品组合承担着开辟新市场的重任。其中,ET5的价格下探,是蔚来旗下最便宜的车型。采用BaaS方案售价的ET7(36.666万元起)也来到了小鹏P7的价格区间(23.99万-42.99万元)。</p><p>券商也给予蔚来更高的预期。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">华西证券</a>称,预计蔚来2022年销量为19.3万辆,现有车型换代和ET5切入走量市场,预计蔚来2023年有望进入更强的产品周期。</p><p>小鹏则将船头驶向中大型SUV市场,而这正是蔚来ES6、理想ONE所在的领域。</p><p>作为小鹏汽车第四款车型,在2021年广州车展亮相的小鹏G9,肩负着小鹏走高端路线的决心。按照规划,G9将在今年第三季度启动交付。“短期内,小鹏G9的交付量预期将接近小鹏P7的水平。”2021年财报电话会,小鹏汽车总裁顾宏地预测。</p><p>“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>驾驶、高续航以及具有市场竞争力的定价,是小鹏汽车中长期销量增长的关键。”华泰证劵分析称。2022年,小鹏将会继续强化这一标签。据何小鹏介绍,今年下半年,小鹏将开放城市NGP功能。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/crawl/613/w550h863/20220401/69ef-c5e3865dfe5ef4fea96d3f76fed32c60.png/w720fin.jpg\"/><span>来源:未来汽车日报制图</span></div><p>作为唯一一家仅靠一款车型“打天下”的车企,理想也有了新的规划。第二款新车理想L9将在4月16日首发亮相,三季度开始交付。随着理想L9的到来,理想的销量规模有望进一步扩大。</p><p>二线新势力同样规划了新车型。威马旗下首款轿车威马M7,将于2022年量产交付,新车搭载三颗固态激光雷达,NEDC续航里程达700km。哪吒S将于第三季度进行量产;零跑旗下代号为C01的轿车也有望于2022年上半年首发亮相。这三款车将一起向高端轿车市场发起挑战。</p><p>随着产品序列逐渐丰富,各家也提出更高的目标。小鹏汽车计划2022年交付25万辆新车,并向30万辆冲击。凭借单款车型在2021年交付逼近十万大关的理想汽车,虽未提出具体的销量目标,但也表示“2022年将是理想汽车整体增长非常重要的一年”。</p><p>不过想要赢并不容易。以小鹏为例,2022年Q1,小鹏汽车的交付量为3.46万辆,仅占全年最低销量目标的13.84%。要完成25万辆目标,剩下的9个月,小鹏需要维持超2万辆的交付水平,并不轻松。</p><p>从整个市场来看,2022年的新能源车市仍值得期待。据乘联会预计,2022年,新能源车销量突破600万辆,渗透率达22%。“且战且走”,秦力洪感叹道。</p><p>(应受访者要求,文中肖磊为化名)</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n零跑都过万了,留给蔚来的时间不多了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-01 20:38 北京时间 <a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2022-04-01/doc-imcwiwss9442645.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>头图来源 | Pixabay当破万辆成为主旋律。作者 | 吴晓宇 编辑 | 王妍来源:36氪-未来汽车日报4月1日,新造车们的成绩单如期而至。在刚刚过去的3月中,适逢传统意义上的销量淡季,再叠加疫情、原材料涨价等因素,成绩单还未出炉,车企老板们便叫苦连连,预告了这场并不好打的月度销量战。不过从结果来看,各家仍斩获不少,新造车的座次排位也再度发生变化。其中,小鹏以15414辆成绩喜提新造车销冠,早早...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2022-04-01/doc-imcwiwss9442645.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2022-04-01/doc-imcwiwss9442645.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2224934659","content_text":"头图来源 | Pixabay当破万辆成为主旋律。作者 | 吴晓宇 编辑 | 王妍来源:36氪-未来汽车日报4月1日,新造车们的成绩单如期而至。在刚刚过去的3月中,适逢传统意义上的销量淡季,再叠加疫情、原材料涨价等因素,成绩单还未出炉,车企老板们便叫苦连连,预告了这场并不好打的月度销量战。不过从结果来看,各家仍斩获不少,新造车的座次排位也再度发生变化。其中,小鹏以15414辆成绩喜提新造车销冠,早早公布成绩的哪吒汽车则凭借12026辆再度挺进三强,最后一个席位被理想以11034辆销量拿下。值得一提的是,新造车万辆阵营中又多了一员。零跑汽车交付量环比增长193%,达到10059辆,位居第四。虽然3月份的生产制造端承受着供应和成本压力,但在特斯拉以一周三连涨的节奏拉开了新一轮涨价潮的序幕后,几乎所有的新能源车企全都跟进完成了本轮幅度不小的涨价,潜在车主们也在月末上演了一场“买跌不买涨”的抢单潮。这也意味着,新的一月,愈发激烈的排位赛更值得期待了。不好打的3月销量战作为第一个交作业的选手,极氪的成绩单并不算亮眼。受疫情与芯片供应影响,3月极氪001交付量为1795辆,环比降幅近4成。但极氪表示,随着3月底新一批核心零部件陆续到货,预计4月生产和交付情况“将会得到明显提升”。自2021年下半年多次失守冠军位的老大哥蔚来,仍未完全恢复元气。相较于2月,蔚来3月交付量有所起色,达9985辆,同比增长37.6%,但仍不及小鹏和理想。2022年第一季度,蔚来交付量为25768,相较理想仍有5948辆的差距。“2021年是蔚来的新品空窗期,有购买意向的用户大多会优先考虑下定新品”,一位蔚来销售告诉未来汽车日报。官方数据显示,首款轿车ET7在3月28日开启交付后,四天时间已交付163辆。不过在造车新势力中,蔚来率先逼近20万辆大关。截至2022年3月底,蔚来累计交付19.28万辆电动车,小鹏紧随其后,超过17万辆,理想为15.58万辆。来源:未来汽车日报制图但论月交付量,在“蔚小理”三兄弟中,小鹏和理想一直都发挥比较稳定。在2021年财报电话会中,小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏曾透露,今年2月下旬以及3月中上旬,新增订单已迅速恢复到去年12月的旺季水平,“3月交付量接近去年的峰值”。成绩也如预期所言。今年3月,小鹏汽车以15414辆,坐上排位赛冠军的宝座。其中P7是当之无愧的顶梁柱,3月交付量达9183辆,占比总销量近6成;小鹏P5在3月交付4398辆。“为了加速交付在手订单,以及今年新增的订单,我们在春节期间完成了肇庆工厂的技术改造。”小鹏表示。理想汽车的理想ONE则延续了强大的爆款产品力,交付量再次破万,达11034辆,同比增长125.2%。2022年第一季度,理想汽车累计交付3.17万辆,同比增长152.1%。即便单月过万辆的成绩已经算得上出色,但理想汽车联合创始人兼总裁沈亚楠仍表示,“长三角疫情导致部分零部件供应短缺,生产受到牵连”。3月26日,在参加活动时,小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏也曾大倒苦水,“疫情影响多个汽车产业链重镇,全国多地产生局部封锁,这对汽车产业链是巨大的打击。”在艰难的供应链环境下,也有“黑马”上演了一出逆袭的桥段。今年3月,零跑汽车也加入单月过万辆的阵营,交付量达到10059辆,环比增长193%。这也是零跑历史以来最好的成绩。目前,零跑主要有三款在售车型,包括轿跑S01、微型车T03,以及中型SUV S11。其中,补贴后价格在6.9万-8.5万元的T03 ,是零跑的“销量担当”。2021年,T03销量占比总销量近80%。对于销量的上涨,零跑一家体验店店长肖磊向未来汽车日报解释称,“主要是因为产能提升了,本身每月的订单不愁,就是订货周期太长。”零跑招股书显示,截至2021年底,零跑共有22536张C11订单,当年交付了其中的3965辆,至少还有2- 4万辆C11未交付。“通过调整生产线、扩大金华工厂的生产能力,金华工厂3月产能超过1万辆。在此前,月产能是现在的60%左右。”而在供应链方面,自去年12月零跑创始人朱江明从大华离职后,“老板亲自抓生产”,在芯片荒面前,“零跑自研芯片也有一定优势”,肖磊认为。继1月交付量冲破万辆后,专注于“为人民造车”的哪吒交付量继续爬升。3月,哪吒汽车交付量再次跨过万辆的基准线,达到10059辆,同比增长270%。而早在2021年,哪吒汽车便多次夺得亚军位置,蔚小理都曾被其超越,开启逆袭攻势。在哪吒汽车CEO张勇看来,销量能够大幅攀升的主要原因就是性价比。“6万到8万、10到15万区间纯电SUV(市场),我们都做到了性价比第一。”然而,对于哪吒的销量逆袭,张勇的表现却格外清醒,“短暂地超越没有意义,(哪吒交付量)只有是理想的3倍才能说比它强”。二季度会好吗?如今站在2022年二季度的起点,很多问题似乎并未有好转。继长春封城长达20多天后,上海也在近日宣布进入“停摆”状态。作为两座集聚了众多零部件企业和车企的城市,大面积的封控无疑给汽车业带来不小的影响。这一点蔚来总裁秦力洪也感触颇深,“上海交付中心已经熄火好几天了,会一直持续到清明后。”“目前工厂供应链紧张,近四天存在一定减产,预计再过三天可以恢复。”3月31日,接近蔚来合肥工厂的消息人士告诉未来汽车日报。生产制造端在努力将损失降到最低。相比之下,销售端则陷入了完全停滞的状态,上海的线下门店几乎全都被封闭管理。不止于此,从2020年便开始的缺芯危机至今仍未消解。“芯片依然是个洼地”,秦力洪如此形容。在3月25日的财报电话会上,蔚来创始人李斌解释称,蔚来当下面临的是基础性芯片波动的问题,“如果缺少这些芯片的话,我们也没有办法生产车,当然会有替代料的方法去做,但这样会搞得复杂一点”。原材料涨价带来的影响则直接让车企“伤筋动骨”,新能源车企几乎全都完成了本轮涨幅不小的调价。理想CEO李想曾表示,“二季度电池成本上涨的幅度将非常离谱”。李斌则呼吁上游原材料厂商,“要从长期利益出发,不要作个人投机性的涨价”。即便困难重重,但从二季度开始,新造车也进入了今年最为关键的时刻。从产品规划上来看,不少新造车都将今年推新车的时间定在今年4月。而在特斯拉处于空窗期的2022年,无疑给新造车们提供了赶超的机会。在卖过10万辆生死线后,新造车们纷纷寻找新的突破口,并开始进入对方的赛道。3月28日,随着ET7开启交付,蔚来的“产品大年”也正式拉开帷幕。除了在5月发布 ES8、ES6、EC6的2022年度改款车型,到2022年三季度,蔚来还会交付基于NT2.0平台的另外两款产品ET5和ES7。蔚来ET7和ET5定位均为轿车,ES7定位为大五座SUV,新的产品组合承担着开辟新市场的重任。其中,ET5的价格下探,是蔚来旗下最便宜的车型。采用BaaS方案售价的ET7(36.666万元起)也来到了小鹏P7的价格区间(23.99万-42.99万元)。券商也给予蔚来更高的预期。华西证券称,预计蔚来2022年销量为19.3万辆,现有车型换代和ET5切入走量市场,预计蔚来2023年有望进入更强的产品周期。小鹏则将船头驶向中大型SUV市场,而这正是蔚来ES6、理想ONE所在的领域。作为小鹏汽车第四款车型,在2021年广州车展亮相的小鹏G9,肩负着小鹏走高端路线的决心。按照规划,G9将在今年第三季度启动交付。“短期内,小鹏G9的交付量预期将接近小鹏P7的水平。”2021年财报电话会,小鹏汽车总裁顾宏地预测。“智能驾驶、高续航以及具有市场竞争力的定价,是小鹏汽车中长期销量增长的关键。”华泰证劵分析称。2022年,小鹏将会继续强化这一标签。据何小鹏介绍,今年下半年,小鹏将开放城市NGP功能。来源:未来汽车日报制图作为唯一一家仅靠一款车型“打天下”的车企,理想也有了新的规划。第二款新车理想L9将在4月16日首发亮相,三季度开始交付。随着理想L9的到来,理想的销量规模有望进一步扩大。二线新势力同样规划了新车型。威马旗下首款轿车威马M7,将于2022年量产交付,新车搭载三颗固态激光雷达,NEDC续航里程达700km。哪吒S将于第三季度进行量产;零跑旗下代号为C01的轿车也有望于2022年上半年首发亮相。这三款车将一起向高端轿车市场发起挑战。随着产品序列逐渐丰富,各家也提出更高的目标。小鹏汽车计划2022年交付25万辆新车,并向30万辆冲击。凭借单款车型在2021年交付逼近十万大关的理想汽车,虽未提出具体的销量目标,但也表示“2022年将是理想汽车整体增长非常重要的一年”。不过想要赢并不容易。以小鹏为例,2022年Q1,小鹏汽车的交付量为3.46万辆,仅占全年最低销量目标的13.84%。要完成25万辆目标,剩下的9个月,小鹏需要维持超2万辆的交付水平,并不轻松。从整个市场来看,2022年的新能源车市仍值得期待。据乘联会预计,2022年,新能源车销量突破600万辆,渗透率达22%。“且战且走”,秦力洪感叹道。(应受访者要求,文中肖磊为化名)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":634388320,"gmtCreate":1647353317476,"gmtModify":1647353317476,"author":{"id":"3472335577605288","authorId":"3472335577605288","name":"无酒亦醉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e8011e10ffd4e038a18c67717567fc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472335577605288","authorIdStr":"3472335577605288"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>半个小时成交了近4000万股,成交量太高了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>半个小时成交了近4000万股,成交量太高了","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$半个小时成交了近4000万股,成交量太高了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/634388320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3459668262124389","authorId":"3459668262124389","name":"way_fortune","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3459668262124389","authorIdStr":"3459668262124389"},"content":"还有更坏的消息吗 现在就是无理性做空","text":"还有更坏的消息吗 现在就是无理性做空","html":"还有更坏的消息吗 现在就是无理性做空"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636774472,"gmtCreate":1646124939658,"gmtModify":1646124939658,"author":{"id":"3472335577605288","authorId":"3472335577605288","name":"无酒亦醉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e8011e10ffd4e038a18c67717567fc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472335577605288","authorIdStr":"3472335577605288"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>交付符合预期,比较关心2月份有没有在产ET7的展车和试驾车,产量是多少","listText":"<a 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16:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>蔚来汽车:2月交付了6131辆汽车,同比增长9.9%。</p><p>蔚来汽车:2022年,总共交付了15783辆汽车,同比增长了23.3%。截至2022年2月28日,ES8、ES6和EC6的累计交付量达到182853辆。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80f82c8359fcc64b9695a52d1f4ef2dc\" tg-width=\"1380\" tg-height=\"569\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608c0ca7f544a93854339353ff5e9ae1","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122804292","content_text":"蔚来汽车:2月交付了6131辆汽车,同比增长9.9%。蔚来汽车:2022年,总共交付了15783辆汽车,同比增长了23.3%。截至2022年2月28日,ES8、ES6和EC6的累计交付量达到182853辆。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636923767,"gmtCreate":1645632967234,"gmtModify":1645632967234,"author":{"id":"3472335577605288","authorId":"3472335577605288","name":"无酒亦醉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e8011e10ffd4e038a18c67717567fc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472335577605288","authorIdStr":"3472335577605288"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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10:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来正在陷入换电悖论循环","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2201256345","media":"锦缎","summary":"想说的是,超高压快充很快就要面世了,2022年就会有大规模落地车型了,比如小鹏的G9,以及理想正在研发的纯电车型等。很显然,充电是一条没有太多逻辑悖论的路线,简单明了。关于换电站,很多人都认为,蔚来当前补能体验好,所以应该坚持投入换电。这注定是一个很难规模化的事情,无法规模化,成本就无法降下来,蔚来于是将进入一个悖论循环。蔚来选的换电这条路线,表面上看是抄了近道,实际上是与时代的潮流背道而驰。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>先上一张图</p><p>基本上这张图把换电模式和充电模式,做了个对比分析。仔细看完这张图后,我认为最重要的其实只有两点:补电时长,和产品标准。其它问题都可以从成本的角度去做一些动态分析。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eb5b7dc7825436ab886303f5ef0d45e\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>关于补电时长。想说的是,超高压快充很快就要面世了,2022年就会有大规模落地车型了,比如小鹏的G9,以及理想正在研发的纯电车型等。小鹏G9充电功率可达480KW,号称充电5分钟,续航200KM。考虑到部分家庭可能会配备慢充枪,以及停车场、商超等物业会逐步配备充电桩,这样的充电效率,其实是能满足需求的。</p><p>很显然,充电是一条没有太多逻辑悖论的路线,简单明了。剩下的就是技术攻关、量产和投放密度的问题了。</p><p>关于换电站,很多人都认为,蔚来当前补能体验好,所以应该坚持投入换电。我想说的是,在讨论之前,我们应该明确一个共识:显然当前电动汽车还处于行业初期阶段,技术发展非常迅猛,远没有到定型和标准化的阶段。</p><p>基于这个认知前提,讨论起来就会容易很多。</p><p>为什么不看好换电?先来搞清楚几个问题,答案就自然了然了。</p><p>这一轮电动汽车革命,主要是两大块,一是电气化,二是智能化。大家都大谈特谈智能化才是未来电动汽车的竞争命门,能意识到这一点,说明都很有远见。</p><p>事实上,电动汽车革命,从用户感知的角度来看,分为两大块,一部分是可感知的,另一部分是不可感知的。电动汽车安静、加速响应快、智能化突出,这些都是容易被大家轻易被大家感知到的部分。而在这之下,其实隐藏着深厚的整车架构变革,是为不可感知的部分。</p><p>整车架构变革,到底有哪些呢?简单的来说就是,汽油车都有硕大的发动机,连着机械传动轴、排气管这些机械结构,直接决定了汽车底盘的基本布局。其他的零部件只能在这个基本结构的基础上进行布局设计。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782b680ac63a4b2fb88fdd1a4a3b6245\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>而电动汽车呢?则完全不一样。它没有发动机,没有传动轴,没有排气管。取而代之的是电机、电池。而且因为电池一般是板式结构,所以整车质量可以做到50:50,这给了电动汽车极大的结构设计空间。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bfac8fee0134ff6b896266d27754818\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>这么说可能没太多概念,我举几个例子你就明白了。比如电车没有发动机,所以它前盖可以设计出一个防撞梁,或者因为结构件少,整车车身可以做的更加的一体化设计,从而增强整车刚性;再比如它相比油车,各种管、轴变少了很多,取而代之的是很多的电线——有意思的事情就来了,这些电线,理论上是可以通过合理的布局设计,做到集成化的,像集成电路板一样。</p><p><b>这里提取两个关键词:一体化,和集成化。</b>所谓一体化,就是让整车的零部件化整为零,好处就是可以极大的降低供应链复杂度,提升整车的结构刚性和安全性;所谓集成化,就是电子工业百年里,各种电子架构越来越浓缩化、芯片化,并在某种意义上遵从摩尔定律。</p><p>事实上,以基本常识和高中物理知识就能知道,一体化的空间是有限的,而集成化的空间短期是看不到上限的,类似于摩尔定律。试想一下,50年代的计算机,个头如一栋房子般,而今天的计算机,可以浓缩到手掌心大小,而其处理能力超出50年代的计算机无数倍。</p><p>因此我们可以畅想,10~20年后,车身结构逐步稳定下来,而电子电气架构则不断浓缩和集成化。很多现在看起来个头都比较大的一些控制器,将来都有可能进一步缩小体积,从而可以比较容易的设计进车架中——这就是资本圈子热捧的滑板式底盘结构。</p><p>再来看电池。电池也是一种较为复杂的电化学结构件。随着电化学、储能技术的提升,未来电池容量、电池包体积还会进一步缩小缩到一定程度之后,还可以与底盘一体化成型,实际上零跑汽车就在研发这样的底盘(CBC底盘),好处是集成度高、结构紧凑,同时还能增加车身刚性和安全性。</p><p>回过头来再看换电。常识告诉我们,换电必须建立在电池的标准化基础之上的,否则换电就无从谈起,也根本没法推广。这里的电池标准化,一定得拆开来看,一是机械结构的标准化,二是电化学技术的标准化。你会发现,实际上随着电动汽车技术的快速发展,电化学技术早已建立了若干标准,而电池包的尺寸结构却是没有办法在中短期内标准化的。</p><p>原因很简单,谁不想拥有集成度更高的车身结构呢,谁不想在电气化的路上走得更越远呢?那既然没有办法做到尺寸结构的标准化,又怎能兼容层出不穷的新车型呢,更别说兼容其它车厂的各类车型。</p><p><b>这注定是一个很难规模化的事情,无法规模化,成本就无法降下来,蔚来于是将进入一个悖论循环。</b></p><p>实际上,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>就是一体化、集成化的代表。特斯拉之所以毛利率高,其实主要还是依赖于对其车辆结构的重新设计。这部分用户基本无法感知,体现到车企身上,是供应链的变迁、毛利率的攀升,也是我们投资者常说的,特斯拉在制造效率上的厉害之处。</p><p>蔚来选的换电这条路线,表面上看是抄了近道,实际上是与时代的潮流背道而驰。因为换电的设计,未来底盘就无法做到CBC电池车身一体化,也必须让底盘结构设计让位于换电接口设计,进一步可以推测出,因为换电结构设计,蔚来不得不放弃很多效率优先的设计方案。</p><p>乔布斯那句说说得好,用户永远不清晰的知道自己需要什么,只要当你把完美的产品放到他眼前时,他才会惊叹说,哇,这就是我想要的。蔚来可能只是迎合了一部分用户的显性需求,显然,他们也走了一条最容易、最不费脑力思考的道路。至于国家电网、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTR\">中石油</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>等,为什么愿意与蔚来一起推换电模式呢?我想说的是,这是从不同侧面的利益出发,做出的时下最理性的选择。国家推动换电模式落地,也有资源利用、多样化探索、国际竞争方面的考量。日本政府和丰田多年来还一直在力推氢能源汽车呢,截止到目前,也没有成为市场主流。</p><p>还是那句话,当站在时代的风口时,要搞清楚核心的游戏规则是什么,不然就完全成了陪跑,最终也只是昙花一现或者泯然众人矣。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来正在陷入换电悖论循环</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来正在陷入换电悖论循环\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1075158368\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6edd4ef1e1f428dad9cb66d3735ea2a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">锦缎 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-06 10:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>先上一张图</p><p>基本上这张图把换电模式和充电模式,做了个对比分析。仔细看完这张图后,我认为最重要的其实只有两点:补电时长,和产品标准。其它问题都可以从成本的角度去做一些动态分析。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eb5b7dc7825436ab886303f5ef0d45e\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>关于补电时长。想说的是,超高压快充很快就要面世了,2022年就会有大规模落地车型了,比如小鹏的G9,以及理想正在研发的纯电车型等。小鹏G9充电功率可达480KW,号称充电5分钟,续航200KM。考虑到部分家庭可能会配备慢充枪,以及停车场、商超等物业会逐步配备充电桩,这样的充电效率,其实是能满足需求的。</p><p>很显然,充电是一条没有太多逻辑悖论的路线,简单明了。剩下的就是技术攻关、量产和投放密度的问题了。</p><p>关于换电站,很多人都认为,蔚来当前补能体验好,所以应该坚持投入换电。我想说的是,在讨论之前,我们应该明确一个共识:显然当前电动汽车还处于行业初期阶段,技术发展非常迅猛,远没有到定型和标准化的阶段。</p><p>基于这个认知前提,讨论起来就会容易很多。</p><p>为什么不看好换电?先来搞清楚几个问题,答案就自然了然了。</p><p>这一轮电动汽车革命,主要是两大块,一是电气化,二是智能化。大家都大谈特谈智能化才是未来电动汽车的竞争命门,能意识到这一点,说明都很有远见。</p><p>事实上,电动汽车革命,从用户感知的角度来看,分为两大块,一部分是可感知的,另一部分是不可感知的。电动汽车安静、加速响应快、智能化突出,这些都是容易被大家轻易被大家感知到的部分。而在这之下,其实隐藏着深厚的整车架构变革,是为不可感知的部分。</p><p>整车架构变革,到底有哪些呢?简单的来说就是,汽油车都有硕大的发动机,连着机械传动轴、排气管这些机械结构,直接决定了汽车底盘的基本布局。其他的零部件只能在这个基本结构的基础上进行布局设计。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782b680ac63a4b2fb88fdd1a4a3b6245\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>而电动汽车呢?则完全不一样。它没有发动机,没有传动轴,没有排气管。取而代之的是电机、电池。而且因为电池一般是板式结构,所以整车质量可以做到50:50,这给了电动汽车极大的结构设计空间。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bfac8fee0134ff6b896266d27754818\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>这么说可能没太多概念,我举几个例子你就明白了。比如电车没有发动机,所以它前盖可以设计出一个防撞梁,或者因为结构件少,整车车身可以做的更加的一体化设计,从而增强整车刚性;再比如它相比油车,各种管、轴变少了很多,取而代之的是很多的电线——有意思的事情就来了,这些电线,理论上是可以通过合理的布局设计,做到集成化的,像集成电路板一样。</p><p><b>这里提取两个关键词:一体化,和集成化。</b>所谓一体化,就是让整车的零部件化整为零,好处就是可以极大的降低供应链复杂度,提升整车的结构刚性和安全性;所谓集成化,就是电子工业百年里,各种电子架构越来越浓缩化、芯片化,并在某种意义上遵从摩尔定律。</p><p>事实上,以基本常识和高中物理知识就能知道,一体化的空间是有限的,而集成化的空间短期是看不到上限的,类似于摩尔定律。试想一下,50年代的计算机,个头如一栋房子般,而今天的计算机,可以浓缩到手掌心大小,而其处理能力超出50年代的计算机无数倍。</p><p>因此我们可以畅想,10~20年后,车身结构逐步稳定下来,而电子电气架构则不断浓缩和集成化。很多现在看起来个头都比较大的一些控制器,将来都有可能进一步缩小体积,从而可以比较容易的设计进车架中——这就是资本圈子热捧的滑板式底盘结构。</p><p>再来看电池。电池也是一种较为复杂的电化学结构件。随着电化学、储能技术的提升,未来电池容量、电池包体积还会进一步缩小缩到一定程度之后,还可以与底盘一体化成型,实际上零跑汽车就在研发这样的底盘(CBC底盘),好处是集成度高、结构紧凑,同时还能增加车身刚性和安全性。</p><p>回过头来再看换电。常识告诉我们,换电必须建立在电池的标准化基础之上的,否则换电就无从谈起,也根本没法推广。这里的电池标准化,一定得拆开来看,一是机械结构的标准化,二是电化学技术的标准化。你会发现,实际上随着电动汽车技术的快速发展,电化学技术早已建立了若干标准,而电池包的尺寸结构却是没有办法在中短期内标准化的。</p><p>原因很简单,谁不想拥有集成度更高的车身结构呢,谁不想在电气化的路上走得更越远呢?那既然没有办法做到尺寸结构的标准化,又怎能兼容层出不穷的新车型呢,更别说兼容其它车厂的各类车型。</p><p><b>这注定是一个很难规模化的事情,无法规模化,成本就无法降下来,蔚来于是将进入一个悖论循环。</b></p><p>实际上,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>就是一体化、集成化的代表。特斯拉之所以毛利率高,其实主要还是依赖于对其车辆结构的重新设计。这部分用户基本无法感知,体现到车企身上,是供应链的变迁、毛利率的攀升,也是我们投资者常说的,特斯拉在制造效率上的厉害之处。</p><p>蔚来选的换电这条路线,表面上看是抄了近道,实际上是与时代的潮流背道而驰。因为换电的设计,未来底盘就无法做到CBC电池车身一体化,也必须让底盘结构设计让位于换电接口设计,进一步可以推测出,因为换电结构设计,蔚来不得不放弃很多效率优先的设计方案。</p><p>乔布斯那句说说得好,用户永远不清晰的知道自己需要什么,只要当你把完美的产品放到他眼前时,他才会惊叹说,哇,这就是我想要的。蔚来可能只是迎合了一部分用户的显性需求,显然,他们也走了一条最容易、最不费脑力思考的道路。至于国家电网、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTR\">中石油</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>等,为什么愿意与蔚来一起推换电模式呢?我想说的是,这是从不同侧面的利益出发,做出的时下最理性的选择。国家推动换电模式落地,也有资源利用、多样化探索、国际竞争方面的考量。日本政府和丰田多年来还一直在力推氢能源汽车呢,截止到目前,也没有成为市场主流。</p><p>还是那句话,当站在时代的风口时,要搞清楚核心的游戏规则是什么,不然就完全成了陪跑,最终也只是昙花一现或者泯然众人矣。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66bf606d024c4da3900d40ecb4dc2c50","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2201256345","content_text":"先上一张图基本上这张图把换电模式和充电模式,做了个对比分析。仔细看完这张图后,我认为最重要的其实只有两点:补电时长,和产品标准。其它问题都可以从成本的角度去做一些动态分析。关于补电时长。想说的是,超高压快充很快就要面世了,2022年就会有大规模落地车型了,比如小鹏的G9,以及理想正在研发的纯电车型等。小鹏G9充电功率可达480KW,号称充电5分钟,续航200KM。考虑到部分家庭可能会配备慢充枪,以及停车场、商超等物业会逐步配备充电桩,这样的充电效率,其实是能满足需求的。很显然,充电是一条没有太多逻辑悖论的路线,简单明了。剩下的就是技术攻关、量产和投放密度的问题了。关于换电站,很多人都认为,蔚来当前补能体验好,所以应该坚持投入换电。我想说的是,在讨论之前,我们应该明确一个共识:显然当前电动汽车还处于行业初期阶段,技术发展非常迅猛,远没有到定型和标准化的阶段。基于这个认知前提,讨论起来就会容易很多。为什么不看好换电?先来搞清楚几个问题,答案就自然了然了。这一轮电动汽车革命,主要是两大块,一是电气化,二是智能化。大家都大谈特谈智能化才是未来电动汽车的竞争命门,能意识到这一点,说明都很有远见。事实上,电动汽车革命,从用户感知的角度来看,分为两大块,一部分是可感知的,另一部分是不可感知的。电动汽车安静、加速响应快、智能化突出,这些都是容易被大家轻易被大家感知到的部分。而在这之下,其实隐藏着深厚的整车架构变革,是为不可感知的部分。整车架构变革,到底有哪些呢?简单的来说就是,汽油车都有硕大的发动机,连着机械传动轴、排气管这些机械结构,直接决定了汽车底盘的基本布局。其他的零部件只能在这个基本结构的基础上进行布局设计。而电动汽车呢?则完全不一样。它没有发动机,没有传动轴,没有排气管。取而代之的是电机、电池。而且因为电池一般是板式结构,所以整车质量可以做到50:50,这给了电动汽车极大的结构设计空间。这么说可能没太多概念,我举几个例子你就明白了。比如电车没有发动机,所以它前盖可以设计出一个防撞梁,或者因为结构件少,整车车身可以做的更加的一体化设计,从而增强整车刚性;再比如它相比油车,各种管、轴变少了很多,取而代之的是很多的电线——有意思的事情就来了,这些电线,理论上是可以通过合理的布局设计,做到集成化的,像集成电路板一样。这里提取两个关键词:一体化,和集成化。所谓一体化,就是让整车的零部件化整为零,好处就是可以极大的降低供应链复杂度,提升整车的结构刚性和安全性;所谓集成化,就是电子工业百年里,各种电子架构越来越浓缩化、芯片化,并在某种意义上遵从摩尔定律。事实上,以基本常识和高中物理知识就能知道,一体化的空间是有限的,而集成化的空间短期是看不到上限的,类似于摩尔定律。试想一下,50年代的计算机,个头如一栋房子般,而今天的计算机,可以浓缩到手掌心大小,而其处理能力超出50年代的计算机无数倍。因此我们可以畅想,10~20年后,车身结构逐步稳定下来,而电子电气架构则不断浓缩和集成化。很多现在看起来个头都比较大的一些控制器,将来都有可能进一步缩小体积,从而可以比较容易的设计进车架中——这就是资本圈子热捧的滑板式底盘结构。再来看电池。电池也是一种较为复杂的电化学结构件。随着电化学、储能技术的提升,未来电池容量、电池包体积还会进一步缩小缩到一定程度之后,还可以与底盘一体化成型,实际上零跑汽车就在研发这样的底盘(CBC底盘),好处是集成度高、结构紧凑,同时还能增加车身刚性和安全性。回过头来再看换电。常识告诉我们,换电必须建立在电池的标准化基础之上的,否则换电就无从谈起,也根本没法推广。这里的电池标准化,一定得拆开来看,一是机械结构的标准化,二是电化学技术的标准化。你会发现,实际上随着电动汽车技术的快速发展,电化学技术早已建立了若干标准,而电池包的尺寸结构却是没有办法在中短期内标准化的。原因很简单,谁不想拥有集成度更高的车身结构呢,谁不想在电气化的路上走得更越远呢?那既然没有办法做到尺寸结构的标准化,又怎能兼容层出不穷的新车型呢,更别说兼容其它车厂的各类车型。这注定是一个很难规模化的事情,无法规模化,成本就无法降下来,蔚来于是将进入一个悖论循环。实际上,特斯拉就是一体化、集成化的代表。特斯拉之所以毛利率高,其实主要还是依赖于对其车辆结构的重新设计。这部分用户基本无法感知,体现到车企身上,是供应链的变迁、毛利率的攀升,也是我们投资者常说的,特斯拉在制造效率上的厉害之处。蔚来选的换电这条路线,表面上看是抄了近道,实际上是与时代的潮流背道而驰。因为换电的设计,未来底盘就无法做到CBC电池车身一体化,也必须让底盘结构设计让位于换电接口设计,进一步可以推测出,因为换电结构设计,蔚来不得不放弃很多效率优先的设计方案。乔布斯那句说说得好,用户永远不清晰的知道自己需要什么,只要当你把完美的产品放到他眼前时,他才会惊叹说,哇,这就是我想要的。蔚来可能只是迎合了一部分用户的显性需求,显然,他们也走了一条最容易、最不费脑力思考的道路。至于国家电网、中石油、宁德时代等,为什么愿意与蔚来一起推换电模式呢?我想说的是,这是从不同侧面的利益出发,做出的时下最理性的选择。国家推动换电模式落地,也有资源利用、多样化探索、国际竞争方面的考量。日本政府和丰田多年来还一直在力推氢能源汽车呢,截止到目前,也没有成为市场主流。还是那句话,当站在时代的风口时,要搞清楚核心的游戏规则是什么,不然就完全成了陪跑,最终也只是昙花一现或者泯然众人矣。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692764112,"gmtCreate":1641222260143,"gmtModify":1641222260143,"author":{"id":"3472335577605288","authorId":"3472335577605288","name":"无酒亦醉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e8011e10ffd4e038a18c67717567fc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472335577605288","authorIdStr":"3472335577605288"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>中概股咋又崩了[捂脸] ","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$中概股咋又崩了[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692763867","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692598248,"gmtCreate":1641026373393,"gmtModify":1641026373393,"author":{"id":"3472335577605288","authorId":"3472335577605288","name":"无酒亦醉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e8011e10ffd4e038a18c67717567fc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472335577605288","authorIdStr":"3472335577605288"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>从四季度交付量来看,当前三款车的产能和订单量也就是每月8000-10000左右了。当前的三款车都是第一代车型,销量已经没有多大提升空间了,ES7没在Nio Day上发布也是怕挤压2022年第一季度的交付量。销量要有大的提升,得看本年度二代车型上新了,EC6,ES6,ES8也到了更新换代的时候了。大家都知道二代相比一代会有很大提升,价格差异也不大,一代车型买的人会变少,等等党更香。期待蔚来在ET5交付前更新所有SUV车型,在此之前股价难以大跃升啊!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>从四季度交付量来看,当前三款车的产能和订单量也就是每月8000-10000左右了。当前的三款车都是第一代车型,销量已经没有多大提升空间了,ES7没在Nio Day上发布也是怕挤压2022年第一季度的交付量。销量要有大的提升,得看本年度二代车型上新了,EC6,ES6,ES8也到了更新换代的时候了。大家都知道二代相比一代会有很大提升,价格差异也不大,一代车型买的人会变少,等等党更香。期待蔚来在ET5交付前更新所有SUV车型,在此之前股价难以大跃升啊!","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$从四季度交付量来看,当前三款车的产能和订单量也就是每月8000-10000左右了。当前的三款车都是第一代车型,销量已经没有多大提升空间了,ES7没在Nio 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Day上发布也是怕挤压2022年第一季度的交付量。销量要有大的提升,得看本年度二代车型上新了,EC6,ES6,ES8也到了更新换代的时候了。大家都知道二代相比一代会有很大提升,价格差异也不大,一代车型买的人会变少,等等党更香。期待蔚来在ET5交付前更新所有SUV车型,在此之前股价难以大跃升啊!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692598248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000481","authorId":"9000000000000481","name":"银河小铁骑00","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4631beb8e4e432c5add0866e8379057d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000481","idStr":"9000000000000481"},"content":"估计要等蔚来的超级工厂建成之后,股价才会有比较好的表现。","text":"估计要等蔚来的超级工厂建成之后,股价才会有比较好的表现。","html":"估计要等蔚来的超级工厂建成之后,股价才会有比较好的表现。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":953912932,"gmtCreate":1590077533426,"gmtModify":1704191790457,"author":{"id":"3472335577605288","authorId":"3472335577605288","name":"无酒亦醉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e8011e10ffd4e038a18c67717567fc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3472335577605288","idStr":"3472335577605288"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/953912932","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3548134302423581","authorId":"3548134302423581","name":"醉清风_0161","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3548134302423581","idStr":"3548134302423581"},"content":"做波段的亏死","text":"做波段的亏死","html":"做波段的亏死"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600455622,"gmtCreate":1638192309422,"gmtModify":1638192309422,"author":{"id":"3472335577605288","authorId":"3472335577605288","name":"无酒亦醉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e8011e10ffd4e038a18c67717567fc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3472335577605288","idStr":"3472335577605288"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>按照蔚来6,7,8,9的供应链能力,10月虽然停工,但是供应链应该不停,且供应链不会暴涨暴跌。取4个月的平均交付数8130辆,8130x2-10月交付数量3667等于12594,则11月基本上也就是这个12594辆了,不会浮动太多,除非10月蔚来的供应链也停了,电池产能也受限。坐等1号公布","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$按照蔚来6,7,8,9的供应链能力,10月虽然停工,但是供应链应该不停,且供应链不会暴涨暴跌。取4个月的平均交付数8130辆,8130x2-10月交付数量3667等于12594,则11月基本上也就是这个12594辆了,不会浮动太多,除非10月蔚来的供应链也停了,电池产能也受限。坐等1号公布","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600455622","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3472335577605288","authorId":"3472335577605288","name":"无酒亦醉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e8011e10ffd4e038a18c67717567fc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3472335577605288","idStr":"3472335577605288"},"content":"12月的销量基本上也是8000来辆,NIO DAY上会不会宣布新的电池供应商,宁德时代现在产能跟不上新势力和特斯拉了","text":"12月的销量基本上也是8000来辆,NIO 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Welt daily newspaper reported on Friday, citing EU diplomats. </p>\n<p> The paper said it was unclear what the reason was for hesitation from Paris, but diplomats had speculated that it might want French companies to play a bigger part in the vaccine production. </p>\n<p> The paper reported that at recent meetings about vaccine orders, French representatives had held up decision-making by posing technical questions and requests for clarifications. </p>\n<p> Due to massive global demand for booster doses as well as vaccines for young people, EU governments fear that they may be too late and lose out on the order. </p>\n<p> \"That would be a disaster for which France would be responsible,\" Die Welt quoted <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> diplomat as saying. </p>\n<p> (Reporting by Madeline Chambers; editing by Diane Craft) </p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFrance delaying EU order for COVID-19 vaccine -Germany's Welt\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-07 11:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/france-delaying-eu-order-covid-030000637.html><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>BERLIN, May 7 (Reuters) - France is delaying a European Union order for 1.8 billion doses of the BioNTech/Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine planned for the next two years, Germany's Die Welt daily newspaper ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/france-delaying-eu-order-covid-030000637.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/france-delaying-eu-order-covid-030000637.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2133579655","content_text":"BERLIN, May 7 (Reuters) - France is delaying a European Union order for 1.8 billion doses of the BioNTech/Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine planned for the next two years, Germany's Die Welt daily newspaper reported on Friday, citing EU diplomats. \n The paper said it was unclear what the reason was for hesitation from Paris, but diplomats had speculated that it might want French companies to play a bigger part in the vaccine production. \n The paper reported that at recent meetings about vaccine orders, French representatives had held up decision-making by posing technical questions and requests for clarifications. \n Due to massive global demand for booster doses as well as vaccines for young people, EU governments fear that they may be too late and lose out on the order. \n \"That would be a disaster for which France would be responsible,\" Die Welt quoted one diplomat as saying. \n (Reporting by Madeline Chambers; editing by Diane 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$辉瑞(PFE)$</a>疫苗股除了辉瑞外,其他的已经恢复上涨了","text":"$辉瑞(PFE)$疫苗股除了辉瑞外,其他的已经恢复上涨了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317541723","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":983334799,"gmtCreate":1583149540611,"gmtModify":1704348768020,"author":{"id":"3472335577605288","authorId":"3472335577605288","name":"无酒亦醉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e8011e10ffd4e038a18c67717567fc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3472335577605288","idStr":"3472335577605288"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>还有让这两天发财报的吗?多利好的财报都抵不住这几天波动的大盘","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>还有让这两天发财报的吗?多利好的财报都抵不住这几天波动的大盘","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$还有让这两天发财报的吗?多利好的财报都抵不住这几天波动的大盘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/983334799","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3507779075099026","authorId":"3507779075099026","name":"寓言家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc143f3104a28d0cd68dfc64805ec5cf","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3507779075099026","idStr":"3507779075099026"},"content":"财报不发了?我记得原先说3号","text":"财报不发了?我记得原先说3号","html":"财报不发了?我记得原先说3号"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847764638,"gmtCreate":1636555090354,"gmtModify":1636555090354,"author":{"id":"3472335577605288","authorId":"3472335577605288","name":"无酒亦醉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e8011e10ffd4e038a18c67717567fc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3472335577605288","idStr":"3472335577605288"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"19年大家都在说明年倒闭,21年了,大家都在说蔚来没技术","listText":"19年大家都在说明年倒闭,21年了,大家都在说蔚来没技术","text":"19年大家都在说明年倒闭,21年了,大家都在说蔚来没技术","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847764638","repostId":"1189094403","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189094403","pubTimestamp":1636528002,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189094403?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-10 15:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“优等生”蔚来,没有上进心","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189094403","media":"亿欧汽车","summary":"看了$蔚来$的三季度财报,一位创始版车主表示:蔚来现在最大的问题,是没有了之前的危机感。蔚来汽车联合创始人兼总裁秦力洪对此表示:危机感,永远都有。2021年11月10日,蔚来发布三季度财报,三季度营收达98.1亿元,同比增长116.6%,现金储备达470亿元。财报的字里行间透露着“有钱”二字。一个月前,蔚来还是蝉联销冠的优等生,虽然新势力销量波动不罕见,但从蔚来日渐下滑的销量来看,情况堪忧。","content":"<p>看了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>的三季度财报,一位创始版车主表示:蔚来现在最大的问题,是没有了之前的危机感。</p>\n<p>蔚来汽车联合创始人兼总裁秦力洪对此表示:危机感,永远都有。</p>\n<p>2021年11月10日,蔚来发布三季度财报,三季度营收达98.1亿元,同比增长116.6%,现金储备达470亿元。</p>\n<p>财报的字里行间透露着“有钱”二字。</p>\n<p>而车主纷纷在财报信息下面留言,呼吁有钱的蔚来加快脚步,增强硬件首发优势,积极开发软件实力,“比起新势力,蔚来已经中规中矩了。我希望有钱的蔚来,能带来更多的惊喜。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0148a4b9dcbb0d13de068903d2ada9c1\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i><b>01</b></i></p>\n<p><b>跌出第一梯队?</b></p>\n<p>10月,蔚来首次跌至造车新势力销量榜第五位。</p>\n<p>一个月前,蔚来还是蝉联销冠的优等生,虽然新势力销量波动不罕见,但从蔚来日渐下滑的销量来看,情况堪忧。</p>\n<p>消息发酵后,蔚来火速回应:“与生产线改造有关。”据亿欧汽车了解, 10月,江淮蔚来合肥先进制造基地生产线完成阶段性改造,10月下旬起,合肥先进制造基地已逐步恢复生产。</p>\n<p>秦力洪表示,“10月份的销量其实是非常出色的,可以用创纪录来形容,达到了历史新高。因为工厂在改建升级,仅仅满负荷运转了10天,车造的少,所以交付少了。”</p>\n<p>此外,秦力洪还透露,此次的生产线改造目的之一就是兼容ET7准时上线。</p>\n<p>随着工厂改建升级工作的完成,蔚来首款轿车ET7将在明年一季度投产,而江淮蔚来合肥工厂的总产能也将实现2倍增长,达到30万台。</p>\n<p>言下之意,此次销量情形是蔚来为了主力车型ET7“顺产”及产能优化,并对眼前利益暂时让渡导致。</p>\n<p>蔚来虽然对销量信心十足,但对第四季度的交付量缺少了些许底气。</p>\n<p>在第三季度财报电话会上,蔚来预计第四季度车辆交付量在2.35-2.55万辆之间,同比增幅约35.4%至46.9%,较2021年第三季度减少约3.8%-4.3%。</p>\n<p>但在“缺芯”和产线调整的大背景下,“我们”都一样。</p>\n<p>理想、哪吒、威马10月环比均有所上涨,小鹏虽比上月交付量有所减少,仍能突破一万辆大关。蔚来跌幅最大达到了65.5%。</p>\n<p><i><b>02</b></i></p>\n<p><b>蔚来,科技断层?</b></p>\n<p>蔚来车主当前反映最多的问题之一是:车机开机特别慢。甚至有车主调侃,车机版本越升级越卡,“闻出了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>的味道。”</p>\n<p>这与软件实力息息相关。</p>\n<p>在《2021中国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>驾驶核心软件产业研究报告》中,亿欧智库预计,汽车软件在整车价值中所占的比例有望在2030年达到65%,成为未来汽车产业中的重要利润点。</p>\n<p>当前,软件定义汽车已成共识,如何在汽车硬件基础上为用户提供更人性化的软件服务,是重中之重,亦是蔚来等智能化车企绕不开的大山之一。</p>\n<p>蔚来似乎在这座大山面前停住了脚步。</p>\n<p>从过去一年的新闻看,蔚来做的事情,只有两件,要么加速换电站建设,要么日常与车主打作一团。</p>\n<p>在产品研发和技术创新上,蔚来的动作似乎并不明显。</p>\n<p>看似以“互联网思维打天下”,技能树点满的蔚来,本质上更像是一家侧重于售后的车企。</p>\n<p>蔚来更多付出的是对消费者的关爱和无微不至的满足,甚至有人戏称其为“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">海底捞</a>式服务”。</p>\n<p>蔚来向来“宠粉”,用户也一直为其忠实地站队欢呼,“圈地自萌”好不欢乐。</p>\n<p>路人缘良好,也要硬实力跟上。蔚来想给人有温度的造车企业的印象无可厚非,但人家隔壁的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>,市值已经破万亿美金了,蔚来可不能沉浸在车主的”温柔乡“里了。</p>\n<p>在市场和车主的眼中,蔚来作为中国造车新势力第一股,一直被视为新能源浪潮下的领头羊,背负的是中国自主品牌弯道超车的希望。</p>\n<p>可车主“饭圈化”显然不是一个好的信号,靠被发好人卡,蔚来不免失却了科技公司的格调。</p>\n<p>不少蔚来车主也真诚呼吁:“多在产品身上下点功夫吧!”</p>\n<p><i><b>03</b></i></p>\n<p><b>周边产品,胜过主营业务?</b></p>\n<p>打造令人愉悦的生活方式,蔚来底气满满。</p>\n<p>除了一年一度的NIO Day之外,似乎再难给出任何惊喜。难道只顾着生活,却忘了创新?</p>\n<p>除了NIO Power、NIO Service、NIO House、NIO Space这些与用车深度相关的用户服务,NIO Life也成为蔚来用户运营的重要组成之一,共同组成了“NIO宇宙”。</p>\n<p>别人出的周边是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>,而蔚来出的周边却是时装家居、茶酒美食。</p>\n<p>蔚来,已经在享受生活中愈发得心应手。频频出现在设计师和文青的安利帖中,甚至有人在小红书上发帖:蔚来的周边产品比它的主营业务做得更好。</p>\n<p>你可以永远相信蔚来的审美,但销量不一定。</p>\n<p>不务正业的车企有很多,比如马自达推出过金属蒸蛋器,日产设计过智能家具,福特曾推出狗屋,丰田生产过氢动力游艇,本田还造过飞机。</p>\n<p>友商特斯拉推出了人形机器人Tesla bot,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>推出智能机器马,甚至迷上了飞行汽车。</p>\n<p>蔚来若只沉浸在生活的美好中,成为某一群人的狂欢,如何担负得起推动中国智能电动汽车普及全球的历史重任。</p>\n<p><i><b>04</b></i></p>\n<p><b>蔚来,离特斯拉还差多少<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a></b></p>\n<p>蔚来的人设,也曾是\"特斯拉中国分拉\"(平替)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/800d9deff26dd2ab9371ded2377cd21a\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>本应更懂中国市场的蔚来,不像特斯拉出身“显贵”,经历了自燃、濒临破产、投资人撤出等事件,一直被霉运笼罩的李斌实属不易,终于走出了中国智能电动汽车的特色道路。</p>\n<p>再看看“任性调价、把用户当韭菜”的特斯拉,市值不仅于近日突破万亿美金,其在销售场景中也是一车难求。</p>\n<p>订单充足产能不足,某种程度上来说羡煞旁人,一时无法望其项背,究其本质恐怕是特斯拉强大的产品力。</p>\n<p>建厂、量产、交付一以贯之,产品性能领先同级且不断通过OTA迭代更新,特斯拉将科技创新的技能值一再拉满。</p>\n<p>蛰伏多年的比亚迪在市值与销量上均得到了市场的正向反馈,被视为中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>汽车的头号代表,取代了蔚来曾经中国车企市值第一的位置。</p>\n<p>如今看来,蔚来与特斯拉之间,还差了不止一个比亚迪。</p>\n<p>蔚来要想在接下来的“新能源短道速滑”中追上特斯拉,还应在技术创新与产品力提升上下功夫。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d2e760cacde43d3994fba208021ac4e\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i><b>05</b></i></p>\n<p><b>蔚来的危机</b></p>\n<p>有车主表示,100多位产品经理负责一个日活10万的APP实属浪费,蔚来的服务,也越发没有新鲜感。</p>\n<p>如果蔚来无法再带来更多惊喜,那么车主还会只为其优质的服务买单吗?</p>\n<p>蔚来面临的风险是,一旦现在蔚来的“信徒”失去了备受宠溺的用户服务,失去了引以为傲的价值标签,将会绝情地离去。</p>\n<p>在用户日益严苛的要求下,蔚来的挑战越来越大,如何在更好服务的基础上,给用户更好的产品,是蔚来的当务之急。</p>\n<p>蔚来想影响并促成转化的,仍是“沉默的大多数”。</p>\n<p>这样的困境,会造成蔚来无法做到下沉,难以做到科技普惠,成为一家伟大的科技公司。</p>\n<p>现在的蔚来成不了比亚迪,更成不了特斯拉。与其被动等待靴子落地,不如励精图治,聆听用户和市场的声音,继续成为“最好的中国智能电动车企”。</p>\n<p>造车势力已进入“战国时代”,亿欧汽车认为,车企需一同抵达未来出行蓝海,缔造智能电动汽车的”白银时代“,才能走得更长远。</p>\n<p>正如蔚来车主所说,价格下探的新车型、不断上升的交付量,才是王道。</p>\n<p>正如车主所言:“蔚来可不要掉队咯!”</p>","source":"lsy1582080587274","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“优等生”蔚来,没有上进心</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“优等生”蔚来,没有上进心\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-10 15:06 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9zicYnkESg3Ia3NcfIwFTg><strong>亿欧汽车</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>看了蔚来的三季度财报,一位创始版车主表示:蔚来现在最大的问题,是没有了之前的危机感。\n蔚来汽车联合创始人兼总裁秦力洪对此表示:危机感,永远都有。\n2021年11月10日,蔚来发布三季度财报,三季度营收达98.1亿元,同比增长116.6%,现金储备达470亿元。\n财报的字里行间透露着“有钱”二字。\n而车主纷纷在财报信息下面留言,呼吁有钱的蔚来加快脚步,增强硬件首发优势,积极开发软件实力,“比起新势力...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9zicYnkESg3Ia3NcfIwFTg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3adb4220700f401af9ab784addf2b777","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9zicYnkESg3Ia3NcfIwFTg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189094403","content_text":"看了蔚来的三季度财报,一位创始版车主表示:蔚来现在最大的问题,是没有了之前的危机感。\n蔚来汽车联合创始人兼总裁秦力洪对此表示:危机感,永远都有。\n2021年11月10日,蔚来发布三季度财报,三季度营收达98.1亿元,同比增长116.6%,现金储备达470亿元。\n财报的字里行间透露着“有钱”二字。\n而车主纷纷在财报信息下面留言,呼吁有钱的蔚来加快脚步,增强硬件首发优势,积极开发软件实力,“比起新势力,蔚来已经中规中矩了。我希望有钱的蔚来,能带来更多的惊喜。”\n\n01\n跌出第一梯队?\n10月,蔚来首次跌至造车新势力销量榜第五位。\n一个月前,蔚来还是蝉联销冠的优等生,虽然新势力销量波动不罕见,但从蔚来日渐下滑的销量来看,情况堪忧。\n消息发酵后,蔚来火速回应:“与生产线改造有关。”据亿欧汽车了解, 10月,江淮蔚来合肥先进制造基地生产线完成阶段性改造,10月下旬起,合肥先进制造基地已逐步恢复生产。\n秦力洪表示,“10月份的销量其实是非常出色的,可以用创纪录来形容,达到了历史新高。因为工厂在改建升级,仅仅满负荷运转了10天,车造的少,所以交付少了。”\n此外,秦力洪还透露,此次的生产线改造目的之一就是兼容ET7准时上线。\n随着工厂改建升级工作的完成,蔚来首款轿车ET7将在明年一季度投产,而江淮蔚来合肥工厂的总产能也将实现2倍增长,达到30万台。\n言下之意,此次销量情形是蔚来为了主力车型ET7“顺产”及产能优化,并对眼前利益暂时让渡导致。\n蔚来虽然对销量信心十足,但对第四季度的交付量缺少了些许底气。\n在第三季度财报电话会上,蔚来预计第四季度车辆交付量在2.35-2.55万辆之间,同比增幅约35.4%至46.9%,较2021年第三季度减少约3.8%-4.3%。\n但在“缺芯”和产线调整的大背景下,“我们”都一样。\n理想、哪吒、威马10月环比均有所上涨,小鹏虽比上月交付量有所减少,仍能突破一万辆大关。蔚来跌幅最大达到了65.5%。\n02\n蔚来,科技断层?\n蔚来车主当前反映最多的问题之一是:车机开机特别慢。甚至有车主调侃,车机版本越升级越卡,“闻出了苹果的味道。”\n这与软件实力息息相关。\n在《2021中国智能驾驶核心软件产业研究报告》中,亿欧智库预计,汽车软件在整车价值中所占的比例有望在2030年达到65%,成为未来汽车产业中的重要利润点。\n当前,软件定义汽车已成共识,如何在汽车硬件基础上为用户提供更人性化的软件服务,是重中之重,亦是蔚来等智能化车企绕不开的大山之一。\n蔚来似乎在这座大山面前停住了脚步。\n从过去一年的新闻看,蔚来做的事情,只有两件,要么加速换电站建设,要么日常与车主打作一团。\n在产品研发和技术创新上,蔚来的动作似乎并不明显。\n看似以“互联网思维打天下”,技能树点满的蔚来,本质上更像是一家侧重于售后的车企。\n蔚来更多付出的是对消费者的关爱和无微不至的满足,甚至有人戏称其为“海底捞式服务”。\n蔚来向来“宠粉”,用户也一直为其忠实地站队欢呼,“圈地自萌”好不欢乐。\n路人缘良好,也要硬实力跟上。蔚来想给人有温度的造车企业的印象无可厚非,但人家隔壁的特斯拉,市值已经破万亿美金了,蔚来可不能沉浸在车主的”温柔乡“里了。\n在市场和车主的眼中,蔚来作为中国造车新势力第一股,一直被视为新能源浪潮下的领头羊,背负的是中国自主品牌弯道超车的希望。\n可车主“饭圈化”显然不是一个好的信号,靠被发好人卡,蔚来不免失却了科技公司的格调。\n不少蔚来车主也真诚呼吁:“多在产品身上下点功夫吧!”\n03\n周边产品,胜过主营业务?\n打造令人愉悦的生活方式,蔚来底气满满。\n除了一年一度的NIO Day之外,似乎再难给出任何惊喜。难道只顾着生活,却忘了创新?\n除了NIO Power、NIO Service、NIO House、NIO Space这些与用车深度相关的用户服务,NIO Life也成为蔚来用户运营的重要组成之一,共同组成了“NIO宇宙”。\n别人出的周边是机器人,而蔚来出的周边却是时装家居、茶酒美食。\n蔚来,已经在享受生活中愈发得心应手。频频出现在设计师和文青的安利帖中,甚至有人在小红书上发帖:蔚来的周边产品比它的主营业务做得更好。\n你可以永远相信蔚来的审美,但销量不一定。\n不务正业的车企有很多,比如马自达推出过金属蒸蛋器,日产设计过智能家具,福特曾推出狗屋,丰田生产过氢动力游艇,本田还造过飞机。\n友商特斯拉推出了人形机器人Tesla bot,小鹏汽车推出智能机器马,甚至迷上了飞行汽车。\n蔚来若只沉浸在生活的美好中,成为某一群人的狂欢,如何担负得起推动中国智能电动汽车普及全球的历史重任。\n04\n蔚来,离特斯拉还差多少比亚迪\n蔚来的人设,也曾是\"特斯拉中国分拉\"(平替)。\n\n本应更懂中国市场的蔚来,不像特斯拉出身“显贵”,经历了自燃、濒临破产、投资人撤出等事件,一直被霉运笼罩的李斌实属不易,终于走出了中国智能电动汽车的特色道路。\n再看看“任性调价、把用户当韭菜”的特斯拉,市值不仅于近日突破万亿美金,其在销售场景中也是一车难求。\n订单充足产能不足,某种程度上来说羡煞旁人,一时无法望其项背,究其本质恐怕是特斯拉强大的产品力。\n建厂、量产、交付一以贯之,产品性能领先同级且不断通过OTA迭代更新,特斯拉将科技创新的技能值一再拉满。\n蛰伏多年的比亚迪在市值与销量上均得到了市场的正向反馈,被视为中国新能源汽车的头号代表,取代了蔚来曾经中国车企市值第一的位置。\n如今看来,蔚来与特斯拉之间,还差了不止一个比亚迪。\n蔚来要想在接下来的“新能源短道速滑”中追上特斯拉,还应在技术创新与产品力提升上下功夫。\n\n05\n蔚来的危机\n有车主表示,100多位产品经理负责一个日活10万的APP实属浪费,蔚来的服务,也越发没有新鲜感。\n如果蔚来无法再带来更多惊喜,那么车主还会只为其优质的服务买单吗?\n蔚来面临的风险是,一旦现在蔚来的“信徒”失去了备受宠溺的用户服务,失去了引以为傲的价值标签,将会绝情地离去。\n在用户日益严苛的要求下,蔚来的挑战越来越大,如何在更好服务的基础上,给用户更好的产品,是蔚来的当务之急。\n蔚来想影响并促成转化的,仍是“沉默的大多数”。\n这样的困境,会造成蔚来无法做到下沉,难以做到科技普惠,成为一家伟大的科技公司。\n现在的蔚来成不了比亚迪,更成不了特斯拉。与其被动等待靴子落地,不如励精图治,聆听用户和市场的声音,继续成为“最好的中国智能电动车企”。\n造车势力已进入“战国时代”,亿欧汽车认为,车企需一同抵达未来出行蓝海,缔造智能电动汽车的”白银时代“,才能走得更长远。\n正如蔚来车主所说,价格下探的新车型、不断上升的交付量,才是王道。\n正如车主所言:“蔚来可不要掉队咯!”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":337810298,"gmtCreate":1611110845414,"gmtModify":1703748064988,"author":{"id":"3472335577605288","authorId":"3472335577605288","name":"无酒亦醉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e8011e10ffd4e038a18c67717567fc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3472335577605288","idStr":"3472335577605288"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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