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2020-12-03

开奖

-华住集团-S(01179.HK)2020年三季度经营数据点评：经营修复领跑行业，软品牌管控加强，维持“增持”评级

2020-11-28

2020.11.28 复盘笔记 by 咬咬

2020-11-28 成本现价浮动收益特斯拉(TSLA) 3.49 0.03 -99.14% 作死没救了韭菜挣钱的人回感谢我吗

2020.11.28 复盘笔记 by 咬咬

2020-11-20

$华住(HTHT)$获利走人

2020-11-18

支持

ROSEN, A TOP RANKED FIRM, Continues to Investigate Securities Claims Against Huazhu Group Limited - HTHT

2020-11-06

$蔚来(NIO)$先走了祝大家继续发财

2020-11-05

是的你不适合竞争少操作就是赚跟我炒股一个水平

网易港股开涨超6%，网易严选官博称将退出今年双十一大战

2020-06-10

$特斯拉(TSLA)$快挺不住了

2020-06-04

无脑做多就完事了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-05-08

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$投降，再也不做空了，转多，美国万岁！

2020-04-08

投资损失如何诉讼维权

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600258\">首旅酒店</a>-31.2%），ADR212元（-13.5%，vs.锦江酒店-12.2%、首旅酒店-17.5%），Occ83.8%（-6.5pcts，vs.锦江酒店-17.4pcts、首旅酒店-14.0pcts）。分档次来看，中高端同店RevPAR238元（-17.4%），修复好于经济型同店RevPAR144元（-21.9%），主因休闲旅行是带动恢复的主要因素，中高端ADR回升更明显（中高端-11.2%vs经济型-15.7%），Occ修复相对接近（中高端-6.0pctsvs经济型-6.8pcts）。德意志酒店20Q3BlendedRevPAR35欧元（-52.2%，vs.20Q2-77.6%），ADR93欧元</p><p>（-4.7%vs.20Q2-13.4%），Occ37.9%（-49.9pctsvs.20Q2-52.4pcts）。</p><p><strong>▍核心品牌开店提速，软品牌加强管控下调高全年关店指引。</strong>20Q3华住境内新开门店520家（直营9家，加盟511家），关店201家（直营12家，加盟189家），净开319家（直营-3家，加盟+322家），净开数量环比提升明显（vs20Q2净开233家）。公司自三季度加强对于软品牌的管理、清理质量不佳的酒店，将全年关店指引由350~450家提升至550~600家。酒店结构方面，中高端占比（34.1%）与加盟占比（89.2%）不断提升，pipeline2,272家，相比Q2净减63家，亦为受软品牌管控有关。20Q3华住境内净增门店中，软品牌31家、核心品牌288家（vs.20Q2净增软品牌153家，核心品牌81家），核心品牌开店加速，其中全季/汉庭/桔子分别净开107/84/54家（vs.20Q2分别净开41/8/14家）。20Q3德意志酒店新开3家、净开1家，pipeline41家。</p><p><strong>▍Q3业绩预计扭亏为盈，德意志酒店仍将承压。</strong>公司预计20Q3总收入同比增长0~2%，扣除DH同比减少10%~12%（20Q3锦江境内酒店收入降23.9%、首旅酒店收入降25.4%）。盈利端，在境内业务明显回暖带动下，预计Q3整体有望扭亏。根据目前的恢复节奏，预计20Q4境内酒店RevPAR有望恢复至疫情前90%以上，收入有望同比回正。9月下旬欧洲爆发第二波疫情，德意志酒店恢复趋势中断，至10月底德意志酒店重新开业107家门店，占比91%。目前海外经营修复存在一定不确定性，预计未来2年亏损还将持续。但与此同时，德意志酒店通过成本和现金流控制措施能够保持一定稳健性，信息化改造和委派更加年轻化的国外管理团队也有望为其经营效率后续改善提供支持。</p><p><strong>▍风险因素：</strong>经济放缓超预期，疫情持续时间超预期，净开门店低于预期。</p><p><strong>▍维持观点：</strong>公司回港二次上市后更利于储备实力加速扩张，进一步巩固品牌认知。短期境内酒店经营的强势修复支持估值<span>溢价</span>，长期看好公司作为中国酒店龙头在结构升级、连锁提升背景下的成长机会。维持2020-22年EPS预测-6.68/6.31/10.51元，现价对应2021年PE46X、EV/EBITDA22X，维持“增持”评级。</p><img 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n-华住集团-S(01179.HK)2020年三季度经营数据点评：经营修复领跑行业，软品牌管控加强，维持“增持”评级\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-09 11:31 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20201109113226799e7119&s=b><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>机构：中信证券评级：维持“增持”Q3境内经营修复领跑行业，欧洲疫情反复DH压力仍存，总体经营表现良好、有望扭亏。展店方面，核心品牌扩张提速，软品牌管控加强，调高全年关店指引略超预期。但关店集中于软品牌看长利于品质把控及品牌维护，短期主要关注景气回升趋势下的价值进一步修复机会，维持“增持”评级。▍Q3境内品牌强势复苏，德意志酒店环比改善。华住境内酒店剔除防疫占用后，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20201109113226799e7119&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20e6fa66017937fe813c3ab4efba6858","relate_stocks":{"01179":"华住集团-S","HTHT":"华住"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20201109113226799e7119&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2082388921","content_text":"机构：中信证券评级：维持“增持”Q3境内经营修复领跑行业，欧洲疫情反复DH压力仍存，总体经营表现良好、有望扭亏。展店方面，核心品牌扩张提速，软品牌管控加强，调高全年关店指引略超预期。但关店集中于软品牌看长利于品质把控及品牌维护，短期主要关注景气回升趋势下的价值进一步修复机会，维持“增持”评级。▍Q3境内品牌强势复苏，德意志酒店环比改善。华住境内酒店剔除防疫占用后，20Q3BlendedRevPAR179元（同比-16.9%，下同），ADR218元（-11.1%），Occ82.0%（-5.7pcts）；同店RevPAR178元（-19.8%，vs.锦江酒店-32.0%（锦江酒店为Q1~3累计，下同）、首旅酒店-31.2%），ADR212元（-13.5%，vs.锦江酒店-12.2%、首旅酒店-17.5%），Occ83.8%（-6.5pcts，vs.锦江酒店-17.4pcts、首旅酒店-14.0pcts）。分档次来看，中高端同店RevPAR238元（-17.4%），修复好于经济型同店RevPAR144元（-21.9%），主因休闲旅行是带动恢复的主要因素，中高端ADR回升更明显（中高端-11.2%vs经济型-15.7%），Occ修复相对接近（中高端-6.0pctsvs经济型-6.8pcts）。德意志酒店20Q3BlendedRevPAR35欧元（-52.2%，vs.20Q2-77.6%），ADR93欧元（-4.7%vs.20Q2-13.4%），Occ37.9%（-49.9pctsvs.20Q2-52.4pcts）。▍核心品牌开店提速，软品牌加强管控下调高全年关店指引。20Q3华住境内新开门店520家（直营9家，加盟511家），关店201家（直营12家，加盟189家），净开319家（直营-3家，加盟+322家），净开数量环比提升明显（vs20Q2净开233家）。公司自三季度加强对于软品牌的管理、清理质量不佳的酒店，将全年关店指引由350~450家提升至550~600家。酒店结构方面，中高端占比（34.1%）与加盟占比（89.2%）不断提升，pipeline2,272家，相比Q2净减63家，亦为受软品牌管控有关。20Q3华住境内净增门店中，软品牌31家、核心品牌288家（vs.20Q2净增软品牌153家，核心品牌81家），核心品牌开店加速，其中全季/汉庭/桔子分别净开107/84/54家（vs.20Q2分别净开41/8/14家）。20Q3德意志酒店新开3家、净开1家，pipeline41家。▍Q3业绩预计扭亏为盈，德意志酒店仍将承压。公司预计20Q3总收入同比增长0~2%，扣除DH同比减少10%~12%（20Q3锦江境内酒店收入降23.9%、首旅酒店收入降25.4%）。盈利端，在境内业务明显回暖带动下，预计Q3整体有望扭亏。根据目前的恢复节奏，预计20Q4境内酒店RevPAR有望恢复至疫情前90%以上，收入有望同比回正。9月下旬欧洲爆发第二波疫情，德意志酒店恢复趋势中断，至10月底德意志酒店重新开业107家门店，占比91%。目前海外经营修复存在一定不确定性，预计未来2年亏损还将持续。但与此同时，德意志酒店通过成本和现金流控制措施能够保持一定稳健性，信息化改造和委派更加年轻化的国外管理团队也有望为其经营效率后续改善提供支持。▍风险因素：经济放缓超预期，疫情持续时间超预期，净开门店低于预期。▍维持观点：公司回港二次上市后更利于储备实力加速扩张，进一步巩固品牌认知。短期境内酒店经营的强势修复支持估值溢价，长期看好公司作为中国酒店龙头在结构升级、连锁提升背景下的成长机会。维持2020-22年EPS预测-6.68/6.31/10.51元，现价对应2021年PE46X、EV/EBITDA22X，维持“增持”评级。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391187459,"gmtCreate":1606499129771,"gmtModify":1703843489797,"author":{"id":"3468319367558158","authorId":"3468319367558158","name":"咬咬","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468319367558158","authorIdStr":"3468319367558158"},"themes":[],"title":"2020.11.28 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">$华住(HTHT)$</a>获利走人","text":"$华住(HTHT)$获利走人","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390498508","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":390092313,"gmtCreate":1605662430432,"gmtModify":1703838854315,"author":{"id":"3468319367558158","authorId":"3468319367558158","name":"咬咬","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468319367558158","authorIdStr":"3468319367558158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"支持","listText":"支持","text":"支持","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390092313","repostId":"2084841868","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2084841868","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1605631800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2084841868?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-18 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Newswire</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NEW YORK, Nov. 17, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Rosen Law Firm, a global investor rights law firm, continues to investigate potential securities claims on behalf of shareholders of Huazhu Group Limited (...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rosen-top-ranked-firm-continues-165000100.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/XNS3gjmXE1z26770gHLQow--~B/aD0xOTM7dz00MDA7YXBwaWQ9eXRhY2h5b24-/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/0IveKtbpRYqPM3kmtD0GIw--~B/aD0xOTM7dz00MDA7YXBwaWQ9eXRhY2h5b24-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/prnewswire.com/d39b8884b3523488772eec5366530f83","relate_stocks":{"HTHT":"华住"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rosen-top-ranked-firm-continues-165000100.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2084841868","content_text":"NEW YORK, Nov. 17, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Rosen Law Firm, a global investor rights law firm, continues to investigate potential securities claims on behalf of shareholders of Huazhu Group Limited (NASDAQ: HTHT) resulting from allegations that Huazhu may have issued materially misleading business information to the investing public.\n\n  \n\nOn September 21, 2020, Bonitas Research issued a report on the Company which alleged that Huazhu \"lied about the ownership of its hotel portfolio to produce fake financials.\" The report also stated that Bonitas' fieldwork \"confirmed that Huazhu secretly supported operating costs of franchisee hotels owned by undisclosed current Huazhu employees & other undisclosed related parties ('off-book hotels').\" Bonitas further asserted that it \"believe[s] that Huazhu concealed operating expenses using undisclosed related party transactions to artificially inflate Huazhu's reported profits[,]\" and that it \"calculate[s] that Huazhu's fake profits manifested as RMB 2 billion (US$ 300 million) of fake PP&E on its CYE'19 balance sheet.\"\nOn this news, Huazhu's American Depositary Share (\"ADS\") price fell $1.54, or over 3.6%, to close at $40.48 per ADS on September 21, 2020, thereby injuring investors.\nRosen Law Firm is preparing a class action lawsuit to recover losses suffered by Huazhu's investors. If you purchased ADSs of Huazhu, please visit the firm's website at http://www.rosenlegal.com/cases-register-1949.html to join the class action. You may also contact Phillip Kim of Rosen Law Firm toll free at 866-767-3653 or via email at pkim@rosenlegal.com or cases@rosenlegal.com.\nFollow us for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-rosen-law-firm or on Twitter: https://twitter.com/rosen_firm or on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/rosenlawfirm. \nRosen Law Firm represents investors throughout the globe, concentrating its practice in securities class actions and shareholder derivative litigation. Rosen Law Firm was Ranked No. 1 by ISS Securities Class Action Services for number of securities class action settlements in 2017. The firm has been ranked in the top 3 each year since 2013. Rosen Law Firm has achieved the largest ever securities class action settlement against a Chinese Company. Rosen Law Firm's attorneys are ranked and recognized by numerous independent and respected sources. Rosen Law Firm has secured hundreds of millions of dollars for investors.\nAttorney Advertising. Prior results do not guarantee a similar outcome.\n-------------------------------\nContact Information:\n      Laurence Rosen, Esq.      Phillip Kim, Esq.      The Rosen Law Firm, P.A.      275 Madison Avenue, 40th Floor      New York, NY 10016      Tel: (212) 686-1060      Toll Free: (866) 767-3653      Fax: (212) 202-3827      lrosen@rosenlegal.com      pkim@rosenlegal.com      cases@rosenlegal.com       www.rosenlegal.com\n\n\n View original content to download multimedia:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/rosen-a-top-ranked-firm-continues-to-investigate-securities-claims-against-huazhu-group-limited---htht-301175084.html\nSOURCE Rosen Law Firm, 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10:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"熊市反弹还是超级牛市？美股的上涨走势还能持续多久？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146668399","media":"腾讯证券","summary":"美国股市最开始的熊市反弹，已经转变成一轮人们记忆中最引人注目的上涨走势之一。这种戏剧性的转变让投资者们开始回顾以往的反弹，关注期货市场动态，以及相关技术分析，为的是弄清楚本轮反弹能走多远。\n市场似乎对","content":"<p>美国股市最开始的熊市反弹，已经转变成一轮人们记忆中最引人注目的上涨走势之一。这种戏剧性的转变让投资者们开始回顾以往的反弹，关注期货市场动态，以及相关技术分析，为的是弄清楚本轮反弹能走多远。</p>\n<p>市场似乎对普遍存在的经济动荡，以及新冠疫情大流行所催生不确定性视而不见。标普500指数自3月低触及低位至本周一已上涨37%，早已进入技术性牛市，而纳斯达克综合指数也接近于历史新高。</p>\n<p>美股反弹速度之快，让投资者们陷入了两难境地。少数投资者愿意押注已碾压多数预测的反弹不可持续，因股市已经脱离了经济现实，主要归因于市场预期美联储和美国立法者将会提供无限量的支持。</p>\n<p>当前，标普500指数的市盈率为21.2倍，处于2002年以来的最高水平。与此同时，美国的失业率却居于自“大萧条”以来从未有过的高位。根据路透社发布的调查结果，投资者预计本周五亮相的美国就业数据将显示5月份非农就业人数减少745万人。4月份，美国非农就业人数减少幅度达到创纪录的2050万人。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>首席国际策略师艾伦-拉斯金（Alan Ruskin）指出，“我们身处一场不同的游戏中，想要创建所谓的公允价值是很难的。”</p>\n<p>那些研究历史的人认为，华尔街与主街之间的分裂是不可能持续的。通过对长达近90年来的股市反弹的研究，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>全球研究得出结论：在经济衰退期间跌超30%之后，标普500指数从未在不足6个月的时间内触底。</p>\n<p>真若如此，意味着标普500指数最终还会重返3月23日触及的低位（2191.86点），较比本周一的收盘点位低28%。对于那些因近期反弹而蜂拥进入股市的投资者来说，这可能是一种令人不快的结果。</p>\n<p>美银的研究还表明，持续时间较长的经济衰退，通常会催生持续时间较长的熊市。对于投资者来说，这又是一个令人不安的迹象。经过了强劲的反弹，标普500指数仅比有史以来最高位低10%，但是却几乎看不到经济复苏的证据。</p>\n<p>美银美林全球股票衍生品研究负责人本杰明-鲍勒（Benjamin Bowler）指出，对于决策者们将会为市场提供支持的信心，或许正在催生一个泡沫，而在这个泡沫正助推投资者在“尽管拥有良好的判断力”的情况下仍然选择买入股票。</p>\n<p>他说：“这将导致股市出现更剧烈的回调，因为很多人对自己所做的交易没有信心。”</p>\n<p>通过对过去150年熊市的研究，法国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601166\">兴业银行</a>发现，以往的股市触底反弹一直都很缓慢。比如说，标普500指数在下跌30%或更多之后，开始反弹的前3个月平均涨幅为11%。两年后，标普500指数触底反弹的平均涨幅在40%左右，基本上是该指数自3月下旬以来的涨幅。</p>\n<p>法国兴业银行还指出，此类反弹还具有对经济敏感的周期性股票涨势强劲的特点。在本轮反弹中，周期性股票的涨势一直表现挣扎。</p>\n<p>不过，很多市场参与者坚称，来自决策者的前所未有的支持，可能会催生与以往市场复苏不一致的反应。</p>\n<p>5月底，路透社对近50位市场策略师和基金经理进行的调查显示，多数受调者预计标普500指数今年年终时将收于2950点，仅比当前水平低一点。</p>\n<p>在报告中，NatAlliance Securities国际固定收益主管安德鲁-布伦纳（Andrew Brenner）指出，美联储“必须让投资者不仅要看当前的数字，还要回顾过去的数字……否则，标普500指数可能需要数年的时间才能重返3000点。”</p>\n<p>一些技术分析也描绘出了更明媚的画面。Financial Enhancement Group投资组合经理安德鲁-特拉希尔（Andrew Thrasher）表示，强劲的反弹已经助推标普500指数突破了200天平均移动线，而且该指数超过90%的成分股都已居于50天平均移动线上方。</p>\n<p>他说：“直至严重衰退结束之后，我们才能看到这种水平的个股强劲反弹。”</p>\n<p>但是，投资者仍需保持谨慎态度：标普500指数期货显示，交易者预计未来3个月内该指数下跌10%或跌超10%的可能性为29%，同时预计未来3个月内该指数上涨10%或涨超10%的可能性为12%。</p>","source":"txzq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>熊市反弹还是超级牛市？美股的上涨走势还能持续多久？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n熊市反弹还是超级牛市？美股的上涨走势还能持续多久？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-04 10:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://new.qq.com/omn/FIN20200/FIN2020060400000900.html><strong>腾讯证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国股市最开始的熊市反弹，已经转变成一轮人们记忆中最引人注目的上涨走势之一。这种戏剧性的转变让投资者们开始回顾以往的反弹，关注期货市场动态，以及相关技术分析，为的是弄清楚本轮反弹能走多远。\n市场似乎对普遍存在的经济动荡，以及新冠疫情大流行所催生不确定性视而不见。标普500指数自3月低触及低位至本周一已上涨37%，早已进入技术性牛市，而纳斯达克综合指数也接近于历史新高。\n美股反弹速度之快，让投资者们...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/omn/FIN20200/FIN2020060400000900.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f76f2b955be371110b877bebef37ba","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/omn/FIN20200/FIN2020060400000900.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146668399","content_text":"美国股市最开始的熊市反弹，已经转变成一轮人们记忆中最引人注目的上涨走势之一。这种戏剧性的转变让投资者们开始回顾以往的反弹，关注期货市场动态，以及相关技术分析，为的是弄清楚本轮反弹能走多远。\n市场似乎对普遍存在的经济动荡，以及新冠疫情大流行所催生不确定性视而不见。标普500指数自3月低触及低位至本周一已上涨37%，早已进入技术性牛市，而纳斯达克综合指数也接近于历史新高。\n美股反弹速度之快，让投资者们陷入了两难境地。少数投资者愿意押注已碾压多数预测的反弹不可持续，因股市已经脱离了经济现实，主要归因于市场预期美联储和美国立法者将会提供无限量的支持。\n当前，标普500指数的市盈率为21.2倍，处于2002年以来的最高水平。与此同时，美国的失业率却居于自“大萧条”以来从未有过的高位。根据路透社发布的调查结果，投资者预计本周五亮相的美国就业数据将显示5月份非农就业人数减少745万人。4月份，美国非农就业人数减少幅度达到创纪录的2050万人。\n德意志银行首席国际策略师艾伦-拉斯金（Alan Ruskin）指出，“我们身处一场不同的游戏中，想要创建所谓的公允价值是很难的。”\n那些研究历史的人认为，华尔街与主街之间的分裂是不可能持续的。通过对长达近90年来的股市反弹的研究，美国银行全球研究得出结论：在经济衰退期间跌超30%之后，标普500指数从未在不足6个月的时间内触底。\n真若如此，意味着标普500指数最终还会重返3月23日触及的低位（2191.86点），较比本周一的收盘点位低28%。对于那些因近期反弹而蜂拥进入股市的投资者来说，这可能是一种令人不快的结果。\n美银的研究还表明，持续时间较长的经济衰退，通常会催生持续时间较长的熊市。对于投资者来说，这又是一个令人不安的迹象。经过了强劲的反弹，标普500指数仅比有史以来最高位低10%，但是却几乎看不到经济复苏的证据。\n美银美林全球股票衍生品研究负责人本杰明-鲍勒（Benjamin Bowler）指出，对于决策者们将会为市场提供支持的信心，或许正在催生一个泡沫，而在这个泡沫正助推投资者在“尽管拥有良好的判断力”的情况下仍然选择买入股票。\n他说：“这将导致股市出现更剧烈的回调，因为很多人对自己所做的交易没有信心。”\n通过对过去150年熊市的研究，法国兴业银行发现，以往的股市触底反弹一直都很缓慢。比如说，标普500指数在下跌30%或更多之后，开始反弹的前3个月平均涨幅为11%。两年后，标普500指数触底反弹的平均涨幅在40%左右，基本上是该指数自3月下旬以来的涨幅。\n法国兴业银行还指出，此类反弹还具有对经济敏感的周期性股票涨势强劲的特点。在本轮反弹中，周期性股票的涨势一直表现挣扎。\n不过，很多市场参与者坚称，来自决策者的前所未有的支持，可能会催生与以往市场复苏不一致的反应。\n5月底，路透社对近50位市场策略师和基金经理进行的调查显示，多数受调者预计标普500指数今年年终时将收于2950点，仅比当前水平低一点。\n在报告中，NatAlliance Securities国际固定收益主管安德鲁-布伦纳（Andrew Brenner）指出，美联储“必须让投资者不仅要看当前的数字，还要回顾过去的数字……否则，标普500指数可能需要数年的时间才能重返3000点。”\n一些技术分析也描绘出了更明媚的画面。Financial Enhancement Group投资组合经理安德鲁-特拉希尔（Andrew Thrasher）表示，强劲的反弹已经助推标普500指数突破了200天平均移动线，而且该指数超过90%的成分股都已居于50天平均移动线上方。\n他说：“直至严重衰退结束之后，我们才能看到这种水平的个股强劲反弹。”\n但是，投资者仍需保持谨慎态度：标普500指数期货显示，交易者预计未来3个月内该指数下跌10%或跌超10%的可能性为29%，同时预计未来3个月内该指数上涨10%或涨超10%的可能性为12%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}