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T2021121357
01-17
$创业板指(399006)$
T2021121357
2023-12-29
从哪能看到增发了
@小福哥儿:
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
美股也是垃圾,这逼玩意增发了两次,也不强制退市
T2021121357
2023-12-10
简直尼玛胡扯
事关“2024年降息”,下周美欧英三大央行决议,市场紧盯蛛丝马迹
T2021121357
2023-02-12
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
额额呃呃呃
T2021121357
2022-10-10
回购了百分之一的市值都不到也叫大手笔?
抱歉,原内容已删除
T2021121357
2021-05-07
傻批反着来就行了
抱歉,原内容已删除
T2021121357
2021-05-01
这么高的位置还在忽悠接盘哈哈
回购潮报复性回归,空前资金将灌入美股
T2021121357
2021-04-22
傻**,这也叫跌看看大a
抱歉,原内容已删除
T2021121357
2021-04-13
还开啥公司直接炒股算了
小米集团今日回购1601.7万股,耗资3.98亿港币
T2021121357
2021-04-13
反着听就行,a股继续跌,美股继续涨
对冲基金大佬:美股估值过高,秋季将迎来盘整
T2021121357
2021-04-12
说下美股指数,有人说大a老是不涨,其实大a的指数被太多垃圾股给拖住了,而美股几十年的大牛市还不就是那几只明星股带动,另外道指,纳指以及标普水分很大,可以说是被控盘的
T2021121357
2021-01-09
哈哈圈钱
抱歉,原内容已删除
T2021121357
2020-12-21
市值这么高还要继续圈?
抱歉,原内容已删除
T2021121357
2020-10-21
牛皮吹的再好也没用,姜太公钓鱼,一个愿打一个愿挨
抱歉,原内容已删除
T2021121357
2019-05-31
我要发帖升到2级解锁表情求点赞
T2021121357
2019-05-31
我要发帖升到2级解锁表情求点赞
T2021121357
2019-05-31
我要发帖升到2级解锁表情求点赞
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399006\">$创业板指(399006)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399006\">$创业板指(399006)$ </a>","text":"$创业板指(399006)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/264017156833608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257347166937384,"gmtCreate":1703862507257,"gmtModify":1703862508789,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"从哪能看到增发了","listText":"从哪能看到增发了","text":"从哪能看到增发了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/257347166937384","repostId":"257328383041560","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":257328383041560,"gmtCreate":1703857870343,"gmtModify":1703859377741,"author":{"id":"3571209630068066","authorId":"3571209630068066","name":"小福哥儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ef9be0add6c14d1316034a0077e646c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571209630068066","authorIdStr":"3571209630068066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a>美股也是垃圾,这逼玩意增发了两次,也不强制退市","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a>美股也是垃圾,这逼玩意增发了两次,也不强制退市","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 美股也是垃圾,这逼玩意增发了两次,也不强制退市","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/257328383041560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":250525700239488,"gmtCreate":1702180539093,"gmtModify":1702183375427,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"简直尼玛胡扯","listText":"简直尼玛胡扯","text":"简直尼玛胡扯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/250525700239488","repostId":"1147703408","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1147703408","pubTimestamp":1702176399,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147703408?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-10 10:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"事关“2024年降息”,下周美欧英三大央行决议,市场紧盯蛛丝马迹","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147703408","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场预计美欧英央行将“按兵不动”,明年大幅降息尚未“板上钉钉”。最受关注的美联储年内最后一次议息将在下周二-下周三举行;下周四,欧洲央行和英国央行也将举行年内最后一次利率会议。美联储和欧洲央行则面临较大的不确定性,市场则已经押注美联储和欧央行继续“按兵不动”,并将在明年上半年开启宽松周期。巴西央行将在下周三继续第四次降息,降息50个基点至11.75%。另外,彭博预测拉丁美洲各大央行将在2024年降息。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>市场预计美欧英央行将“按兵不动”,明年大幅降息尚未“板上钉钉”。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">明年,全球央行会迎来宽松周期吗?</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最受关注的美联储年内最后一次议息将在下周二-下周三(12月12日-13日)举行;下周四(12月14日),欧洲央行和英国央行也将举行年内最后一次利率会议。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除挪威外,大多数地区都面临着通胀放缓和经济疲软的趋势,这也让市场加大了对2024年上半年降息的押注。就在三个月前,美联储主席鲍威尔曾发出鹰派警告:将利率维持在“更高更久”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在以加息为主导的拉丁美洲,大多数央行已经开始降息,巴西和秘鲁都可能在未来一周降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储和欧洲央行则面临较大的不确定性,市场则已经押注美联储和欧央行继续“按兵不动”,并将在明年上半年开启宽松周期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通全球研究主席Joyce Chang接受媒体采访时表示:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“央行行长们说,‘看,我们正在等待,看看我们所看到的通货紧缩是否可持续。’” </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们认为直到今年下半年才会看到削减。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_3673238184\">美联储:明年大幅降息尚未成定论</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去一个月,美国通胀数据显示通胀正在降温,为美联储降息的预期提供支持。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国10月核心CPI超预期放缓至4%;美国10月核心PCE同比放缓至3.5% ,个人支出、收入增速均放缓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据媒体的预测,下周四将公布的11月PCE数据将显示“消费者变得更加谨慎”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但,就业数据和11月通胀数据可能打击降息预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周五公布的美国11月非农就业人数超预期增加,失业率上升,工资环比增幅达到年内最高,表明劳动力市场依旧坚挺。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体称,市场预期将于下周二公布的11月核心CPI环比增速将由0.2%加速至0.3%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">面对走向分化的经济数据,彭博经济学家Anna Wong、Stuart Paul等表示:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“美联储没有理由表现得太急于降息,以免金融状况进一步宽松。虽然12月的FOMC会议可能不会完全支持债券市场明年大幅降息的定价,但我们认为它会<strong>实现一半左右</strong>。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_4278790092\">欧央行:最迟明年6月开始降息</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从经济数据来看,欧元区经济有衰退的迹象,并显示通胀正在降温。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体称,欧央行行长Christine Lagarde可能会试图缓和市场对欧洲央行于明年四月降息25个基点的预期。原因在于,尽管劳动力市场正在显示出好转的迹象,但政策制定者并不完全相信消费者价格面临的危险已经过去,并希望看到更多工资数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">欧央行“大鹰派”Isabel Schnabel称迄今为止的通胀放缓“引人注目”,并表示目前不太可能进一步加息。她的发言让市场加大押注明年一季度欧央行将率先降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">她在下周提出的新预测,尤其是对经济增长和通胀风险的看法将为市场预期带来指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">针对欧央行的经济状况,彭博经济学家给出的观点是:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“考虑到通胀前景的风险,欧洲央行可能对3月降息的利率掉期定价不满意。我们仍然认为<strong>首次降息将在六月进行</strong>,风险倾向于尽早采取行动。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2171781448\">英央行:仍需对抗通胀</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年9月以来,英国央行已经连续两次维持利率在十五年来的最高水平。彭博给出的预测是,下周四英国央行依旧“按兵不动”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">经济数据方面,英国10月CPI大幅下降至4.6%,创两年来新低。目前市场预测英国将于明年6月开始降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,媒体观点认为,在劳动力市场依然紧张和服务业价格压力依然存在的情况下,英国央行可能会需要在“较长”一段时间内保持限制性,以防止通胀高于2%。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们预计英国央行将加倍强调其政策可能<strong>在较长时间内保持限制性</strong>的依据有——服务业通胀过高,并且有初步迹象表明经济可能在第四季度重新获得一些动力。实现2%的通胀率还有很长的路要走。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2623431107\">其他主要央行</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞士的通胀水平目前远低于2%的目标,市场猜测瑞士央行不会像欧洲央行那样迅速降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,由于瑞士经济增长乏力,<strong>瑞士央行</strong>在下周四公布最新利率决定时将需要考虑借贷成本对经济前景的影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">挪威最新的经济数据再显疲软,其化石燃料行业缓解了通胀居高不下和信贷成本上升的部分影响,但建筑活动急剧下降,零售活动也在放缓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外,在挪威央行本周举行的一项重要情绪调查显示,由于企业面临更多的闲置产能和更少的招聘问题,本季度经济发展或将停滞,在2024年初出现紧缩。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彭博预测<strong>挪威央行</strong>将在下周四公布是否继续最后加息25个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彭博预测,<strong>俄罗斯央行</strong>将在下周五再加息100个基点至16%。因其致力于将利率拉回至4%的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>巴西央行</strong>将在下周三继续第四次降息,降息50个基点至11.75%。彭博认为,经济降温和通胀放缓已经达到央行目标范围,市场预计巴西央行将在2024年一季度保持这一增速,放慢降息步伐。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外,彭博预测<strong>拉丁美洲各大央行将在2024年降息</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>墨西哥</strong>将在周四将连续第六次将关键利率维持在11.25%,州长Victoria Rodriguez表示,降息讨论可能会在2024年初开始;分析师一致认为,宽松周期将从第一季度开始。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>秘鲁</strong>经济发出衰退警告,已经连续数月陷入通缩,因此秘鲁央行可能在连续三次降息25个基点后再降50个基点。厄尔尼诺现象相关的干扰和持续的政治动荡给通胀带来上行风险,该行行长Julio Velarde可能能会坚持到底,将关键利率从7%下调至6.75%。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>事关“2024年降息”,下周美欧英三大央行决议,市场紧盯蛛丝马迹</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n事关“2024年降息”,下周美欧英三大央行决议,市场紧盯蛛丝马迹\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-10 10:46 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3703858><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场预计美欧英央行将“按兵不动”,明年大幅降息尚未“板上钉钉”。明年,全球央行会迎来宽松周期吗?最受关注的美联储年内最后一次议息将在下周二-下周三(12月12日-13日)举行;下周四(12月14日),欧洲央行和英国央行也将举行年内最后一次利率会议。除挪威外,大多数地区都面临着通胀放缓和经济疲软的趋势,这也让市场加大了对2024年上半年降息的押注。就在三个月前,美联储主席鲍威尔曾发出鹰派警告:将利率...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3703858\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0bbe341ac5d74e1a8d74c9ca5de715","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3703858","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147703408","content_text":"市场预计美欧英央行将“按兵不动”,明年大幅降息尚未“板上钉钉”。明年,全球央行会迎来宽松周期吗?最受关注的美联储年内最后一次议息将在下周二-下周三(12月12日-13日)举行;下周四(12月14日),欧洲央行和英国央行也将举行年内最后一次利率会议。除挪威外,大多数地区都面临着通胀放缓和经济疲软的趋势,这也让市场加大了对2024年上半年降息的押注。就在三个月前,美联储主席鲍威尔曾发出鹰派警告:将利率维持在“更高更久”。在以加息为主导的拉丁美洲,大多数央行已经开始降息,巴西和秘鲁都可能在未来一周降息。美联储和欧洲央行则面临较大的不确定性,市场则已经押注美联储和欧央行继续“按兵不动”,并将在明年上半年开启宽松周期。摩根大通全球研究主席Joyce Chang接受媒体采访时表示:“央行行长们说,‘看,我们正在等待,看看我们所看到的通货紧缩是否可持续。’” “我们认为直到今年下半年才会看到削减。”美联储:明年大幅降息尚未成定论过去一个月,美国通胀数据显示通胀正在降温,为美联储降息的预期提供支持。美国10月核心CPI超预期放缓至4%;美国10月核心PCE同比放缓至3.5% ,个人支出、收入增速均放缓。根据媒体的预测,下周四将公布的11月PCE数据将显示“消费者变得更加谨慎”。但,就业数据和11月通胀数据可能打击降息预期。周五公布的美国11月非农就业人数超预期增加,失业率上升,工资环比增幅达到年内最高,表明劳动力市场依旧坚挺。媒体称,市场预期将于下周二公布的11月核心CPI环比增速将由0.2%加速至0.3%。面对走向分化的经济数据,彭博经济学家Anna Wong、Stuart Paul等表示:“美联储没有理由表现得太急于降息,以免金融状况进一步宽松。虽然12月的FOMC会议可能不会完全支持债券市场明年大幅降息的定价,但我们认为它会实现一半左右。”欧央行:最迟明年6月开始降息从经济数据来看,欧元区经济有衰退的迹象,并显示通胀正在降温。媒体称,欧央行行长Christine Lagarde可能会试图缓和市场对欧洲央行于明年四月降息25个基点的预期。原因在于,尽管劳动力市场正在显示出好转的迹象,但政策制定者并不完全相信消费者价格面临的危险已经过去,并希望看到更多工资数据。欧央行“大鹰派”Isabel Schnabel称迄今为止的通胀放缓“引人注目”,并表示目前不太可能进一步加息。她的发言让市场加大押注明年一季度欧央行将率先降息。她在下周提出的新预测,尤其是对经济增长和通胀风险的看法将为市场预期带来指引。针对欧央行的经济状况,彭博经济学家给出的观点是:“考虑到通胀前景的风险,欧洲央行可能对3月降息的利率掉期定价不满意。我们仍然认为首次降息将在六月进行,风险倾向于尽早采取行动。”英央行:仍需对抗通胀今年9月以来,英国央行已经连续两次维持利率在十五年来的最高水平。彭博给出的预测是,下周四英国央行依旧“按兵不动”。经济数据方面,英国10月CPI大幅下降至4.6%,创两年来新低。目前市场预测英国将于明年6月开始降息。不过,媒体观点认为,在劳动力市场依然紧张和服务业价格压力依然存在的情况下,英国央行可能会需要在“较长”一段时间内保持限制性,以防止通胀高于2%。“我们预计英国央行将加倍强调其政策可能在较长时间内保持限制性的依据有——服务业通胀过高,并且有初步迹象表明经济可能在第四季度重新获得一些动力。实现2%的通胀率还有很长的路要走。”其他主要央行瑞士的通胀水平目前远低于2%的目标,市场猜测瑞士央行不会像欧洲央行那样迅速降息。不过,由于瑞士经济增长乏力,瑞士央行在下周四公布最新利率决定时将需要考虑借贷成本对经济前景的影响。挪威最新的经济数据再显疲软,其化石燃料行业缓解了通胀居高不下和信贷成本上升的部分影响,但建筑活动急剧下降,零售活动也在放缓。另外,在挪威央行本周举行的一项重要情绪调查显示,由于企业面临更多的闲置产能和更少的招聘问题,本季度经济发展或将停滞,在2024年初出现紧缩。彭博预测挪威央行将在下周四公布是否继续最后加息25个基点。彭博预测,俄罗斯央行将在下周五再加息100个基点至16%。因其致力于将利率拉回至4%的水平。巴西央行将在下周三继续第四次降息,降息50个基点至11.75%。彭博认为,经济降温和通胀放缓已经达到央行目标范围,市场预计巴西央行将在2024年一季度保持这一增速,放慢降息步伐。另外,彭博预测拉丁美洲各大央行将在2024年降息。墨西哥将在周四将连续第六次将关键利率维持在11.25%,州长Victoria Rodriguez表示,降息讨论可能会在2024年初开始;分析师一致认为,宽松周期将从第一季度开始。秘鲁经济发出衰退警告,已经连续数月陷入通缩,因此秘鲁央行可能在连续三次降息25个基点后再降50个基点。厄尔尼诺现象相关的干扰和持续的政治动荡给通胀带来上行风险,该行行长Julio Velarde可能能会坚持到底,将关键利率从7%下调至6.75%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":855,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":625365741,"gmtCreate":1676199800483,"gmtModify":1676199803814,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>额额呃呃呃","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>额额呃呃呃","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$ 额额呃呃呃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625365741","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":666920878,"gmtCreate":1665380237794,"gmtModify":1665380241324,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"回购了百分之一的市值都不到也叫大手笔?","listText":"回购了百分之一的市值都不到也叫大手笔?","text":"回购了百分之一的市值都不到也叫大手笔?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666920878","repostId":"1119643126","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104356672,"gmtCreate":1620358533296,"gmtModify":1620359154136,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"傻批反着来就行了","listText":"傻批反着来就行了","text":"傻批反着来就行了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104356672","repostId":"1117182359","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":101387002,"gmtCreate":1619846173906,"gmtModify":1619850400465,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这么高的位置还在忽悠接盘哈哈","listText":"这么高的位置还在忽悠接盘哈哈","text":"这么高的位置还在忽悠接盘哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101387002","repostId":"2131530865","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2131530865","pubTimestamp":1619755963,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2131530865?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-30 12:12","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"回购潮报复性回归,空前资金将灌入美股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2131530865","media":"金十数据","summary":"两大科技巨头总计宣布了1400亿美元的回购计划,数据显示标普500成分公司所持现金已达创纪录的2.7万亿美元。","content":"<p><b>美国企业的股票回购正报复性回归。 </b></p>\n<p>两家大型科技公司本周做出的回购股票承诺,激发了人们对更多公司会效仿的希望。这可能为处于创纪录高位的美国股市提供进一步支撑。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet Inc.周二表示,<b>已拨出多达500亿美元的资金用于回购股票。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司也不甘示弱,一天后承诺将回购900亿美元股票。两家公司的回购金额都比之前的授权有了显著增加,并且可能预示着在新冠危机期间大幅削减股东回报之后,企业已经准备好将不断增加的现金储备返还部分给股东。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c173a7501c1ca72963c4a44532d5b9c0\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>美国企业的股票回购自截至去年6月底触底以来,一直在缓慢回升。2020年最后一个季度的回购额环比增长28%达到1200亿美元,但仍然与去年第一季的1977亿美元相去甚远。</p>\n<p>彭博行业研究汇总的数据显示,<b>标普500指数公司资产负债表上的现金已经达到创纪录的2.7万亿美元</b>。</p>\n<p>仅Alphabet的500亿美元回购就超过了标普500指数公司在上一个财报季节相同时点的所有回购授权。苹果900亿美元的回购规模甚至超过了标普500指数中80%以上的成分股市值,其中包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>。</p>\n<p>自本月早些时候财报季开始以来,已经有至少九家标普500指数成分企业宣布了回购计划。未来数周,<b>回购将成为财报利好后对冲获利抛盘的主要利多因素</b>。</p>\n<p>此前,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>、德银、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>等投行均预期美股未来数周乃至数月将进入调整状态,但它们显然忽略了回购这个因素,要知道,回购操作在过去十年推动美股持续走高的过程中功不可没,而如今回购潮显然正处于蓄势待发的状态。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>分析师John Flood在最新报告中指出,疫情发生后的企业回购静默期已经结束。<b>2021年至今为止上市公司批准回购授权的金额较2020年同期大涨75%,较2019和2018年同期亦分别上涨24%和26%</b>。考虑到2018年是创纪录的回购大年,今年美股上市公司有望重启大幅买入自家股票的节奏。</p>\n<p>根据高盛的交易数据,2021年至今的日均交易量(ADTV)约为2020年同期的1.6倍,与2019年相当,但仅为2018年同期的0.9倍。这意味着接下来上市公司将重新启动回购工具推动股价上行,或者等待5%-10%的回撤后指令投行开始操作,同样也能收复失地并推动股价再创新高。</p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n回购潮报复性回归,空前资金将灌入美股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-30 12:12 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=73908&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国企业的股票回购正报复性回归。 \n两家大型科技公司本周做出的回购股票承诺,激发了人们对更多公司会效仿的希望。这可能为处于创纪录高位的美国股市提供进一步支撑。\n谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc.周二表示,已拨出多达500亿美元的资金用于回购股票。苹果公司也不甘示弱,一天后承诺将回购900亿美元股票。两家公司的回购金额都比之前的授权有了显著增加,并且可能预示着在新冠危机期间大幅削减股东回报之后,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=73908&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff216d1e58143a1c85e4e4d285f9d70d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","03086":"华夏纳指",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","09086":"华夏纳指-U","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=73908&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2131530865","content_text":"美国企业的股票回购正报复性回归。 \n两家大型科技公司本周做出的回购股票承诺,激发了人们对更多公司会效仿的希望。这可能为处于创纪录高位的美国股市提供进一步支撑。\n谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc.周二表示,已拨出多达500亿美元的资金用于回购股票。苹果公司也不甘示弱,一天后承诺将回购900亿美元股票。两家公司的回购金额都比之前的授权有了显著增加,并且可能预示着在新冠危机期间大幅削减股东回报之后,企业已经准备好将不断增加的现金储备返还部分给股东。\n\n美国企业的股票回购自截至去年6月底触底以来,一直在缓慢回升。2020年最后一个季度的回购额环比增长28%达到1200亿美元,但仍然与去年第一季的1977亿美元相去甚远。\n彭博行业研究汇总的数据显示,标普500指数公司资产负债表上的现金已经达到创纪录的2.7万亿美元。\n仅Alphabet的500亿美元回购就超过了标普500指数公司在上一个财报季节相同时点的所有回购授权。苹果900亿美元的回购规模甚至超过了标普500指数中80%以上的成分股市值,其中包括通用汽车。\n自本月早些时候财报季开始以来,已经有至少九家标普500指数成分企业宣布了回购计划。未来数周,回购将成为财报利好后对冲获利抛盘的主要利多因素。\n此前,摩根大通、德银、摩根士丹利等投行均预期美股未来数周乃至数月将进入调整状态,但它们显然忽略了回购这个因素,要知道,回购操作在过去十年推动美股持续走高的过程中功不可没,而如今回购潮显然正处于蓄势待发的状态。\n高盛分析师John Flood在最新报告中指出,疫情发生后的企业回购静默期已经结束。2021年至今为止上市公司批准回购授权的金额较2020年同期大涨75%,较2019和2018年同期亦分别上涨24%和26%。考虑到2018年是创纪录的回购大年,今年美股上市公司有望重启大幅买入自家股票的节奏。\n根据高盛的交易数据,2021年至今的日均交易量(ADTV)约为2020年同期的1.6倍,与2019年相当,但仅为2018年同期的0.9倍。这意味着接下来上市公司将重新启动回购工具推动股价上行,或者等待5%-10%的回撤后指令投行开始操作,同样也能收复失地并推动股价再创新高。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":376905623,"gmtCreate":1619076766362,"gmtModify":1619076766362,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"傻**,这也叫跌看看大a","listText":"傻**,这也叫跌看看大a","text":"傻**,这也叫跌看看大a","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376905623","repostId":"1110329365","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345593181,"gmtCreate":1618322432043,"gmtModify":1618322432043,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还开啥公司直接炒股算了","listText":"还开啥公司直接炒股算了","text":"还开啥公司直接炒股算了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345593181","repostId":"1150806179","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150806179","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618321860,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150806179?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-13 21:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小米集团今日回购1601.7万股,耗资3.98亿港币","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150806179","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周二,小米集团在港交所公告称,今日回购1601.7万股,耗资3.98亿港币。周一(4月12日),小米回购1997万股股份,涉资4.986亿港元。","content":"<p>周二,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团</a>在港交所公告称,今日回购1601.7万股,耗资3.98亿港币。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7daad417e193e92dd10686cd9da34150\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>周一(4月12日),小米回购1997万股股份,涉资4.986亿港元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae5606ccc8abae46706bd5d6a4fbcab\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小米集团今日回购1601.7万股,耗资3.98亿港币</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小米集团今日回购1601.7万股,耗资3.98亿港币\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-13 21:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周二,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团</a>在港交所公告称,今日回购1601.7万股,耗资3.98亿港币。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7daad417e193e92dd10686cd9da34150\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>周一(4月12日),小米回购1997万股股份,涉资4.986亿港元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae5606ccc8abae46706bd5d6a4fbcab\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3df686d3a6ca977e8c6841905eb7e18c","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150806179","content_text":"周二,小米集团在港交所公告称,今日回购1601.7万股,耗资3.98亿港币。周一(4月12日),小米回购1997万股股份,涉资4.986亿港元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345345987,"gmtCreate":1618282315649,"gmtModify":1618282315649,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"反着听就行,a股继续跌,美股继续涨","listText":"反着听就行,a股继续跌,美股继续涨","text":"反着听就行,a股继续跌,美股继续涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345345987","repostId":"1194268072","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1194268072","pubTimestamp":1618278826,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194268072?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-13 09:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"对冲基金大佬:美股估值过高,秋季将迎来盘整","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194268072","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"对冲基金经理尤斯科认为,伴随经济在今年夏季重启,通货膨胀将迅速窜升,达到比投资者一直以来所预计的还要高的水平。在这种情况下,利率就将随之走高,而利率高企就会打压股价,他说,这一幕最可能发生的时间,将是","content":"<p>对冲基金经理尤斯科认为,伴随经济在今年夏季重启,通货膨胀将迅速窜升,达到比投资者一直以来所预计的还要高的水平。在这种情况下,利率就将随之走高,而利率高企就会打压股价,他说,这一幕最可能发生的时间,将是在秋季的某个时候。“我绝对相信估值迟早要回归公平值的,因为这才是常态。估值不可能永远保持在过高的水平。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc7c25ee52c6a8b6b04ae796f6602142\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>上周,伴随疫苗持续铺开,经济前景向好,美股再度收于创纪录的高点。可是,越是如此,高到令人目眩的估值越是让对冲基金经理人尤斯科(Mark Yusko)感到不安,因为他相信,今年晚些时候,通货膨胀大概率会迅速攀升,导致美股暴跌。</p>\n<p>事实上,在尤斯科看来,股市当下的估值不能说是没有一点道理的。当然,这并不是意味着他看好基本面,他的判断很可能恰恰相反。</p>\n<p>关键是在于,面对着一个充斥着大量现金,受到强力财政和货币刺激的系统,这位对冲基金公司Morgan Creek Capital的创始人也实在难以做出看空的决定。</p>\n<p>不过,如果局面按照现在的势头继续发展下去,那危险性显然只能与日俱增。市场中大量涌动的流动性推高了美股的估值,使得严重回挫的风险变得越来越大。</p>\n<p>“我认为整体而言,美股市场当下的估值已经高到过分了,比史上任何时候都要过分,甚至超过了2000年。”</p>\n<p>“对于这种情况,市场原本可以靠着传统的自身调整机制去解决,但是后者现在也遭到了践踏。现在空头卖家的数量比以往任何时候都要少。无脑的消极投资越来越多,这些投资的策略就决定了无论股价怎样,它们都唯有买进。积极管理投资在缩水,对冲机制在缩水,这些必然会使得价格变动趋势被放大。”</p>\n<p>他补充道:“当最终的清算到来,其惨烈程度就将超过历史水平,超过如果那些不正常的事情没有发生前提下的水平。剩下的问题就是这一天何时到来,而这是极难推断的。”</p>\n<p>尤斯科也承认,如果更多的刺激被注入股市和经济系统,股价完全可能在今年余下的时间当中继续走高。不过他要强调的是,股价最终总要回到公平值,而要达成这一目的,途径只有两条,要么是盈利增长,要么是价格下跌。</p>\n<p>虽然经济复苏强势,推动盈利增长,最终给予高企的股价以合理性,这样一种可能性不能完全排除,但是遗憾的是,另外一种可能性显然要大得多,也可怕得多。</p>\n<p>尤斯科认为,伴随经济在今年夏季重启,通货膨胀将迅速窜升,达到比投资者一直以来所预计的还要高的水平。在这种情况下,利率就将随之走高,而利率高企就会打压股价,他说,这一幕最可能发生的时间,将是在秋季的某个时候。</p>\n<p>“我绝对相信估值迟早要回归公平值的,因为这才是常态。估值不可能永远保持在过高的水平。”</p>\n<p>“在我看来,我们遭遇某种程度的盘整已经是大概率事件。”他继续分析道,“如果利率上涨,那些愚蠢的估值数字,或者说那些泡沫就可能被刺破。我认为,今年秋季,我们很可能会看到股市呈现出重大的弱势。”</p>\n<p>尤斯科介绍说,在他看来,市场上高估最严重的主要是新兴科技企业和云企业的股票,以及所谓故事股票。他还专门举出了一些例子,如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>、Beyond Meat。</p>\n<p>对于通货膨胀前景感到担忧的,绝非只有尤斯科一个人。在消费者在疫情期间积攒了巨大的需求,准备在复苏中将大量资金投入经济的背景下,通货膨胀实质上已经成为了美股投资者心中的头号梦魇。</p>\n<p>货币政策制定者联储则明确了他们的态度,表示将允许通货膨胀在未来若干年内高于2%的水平,来与过去十年的低通胀达成某种“平衡”。</p>\n<p>联储主席鲍威尔甚至还说,虽然通货膨胀可能在年内激增,但是美国央行认为那将是一次性的现象,因此不会过多担心。</p>\n<p>可是,投资者会怎么想,就是另外一回事了。如果通货膨胀在今年夏季变得过热,就可能让市场陷入惊慌,诱发一轮抛售行情。Permanent Portfolio Permanent基金投资组合经理人卡基诺(Michael Cuggino)就持此种观点,他担心的是,对于可能到来的通胀水平,投资者依然没有充分估计,因此也没有做好面对的准备。</p>\n<p>“现在其实已经有整整两代的新投资者,他们根本就没有见识过利率剧烈波动的环境,也没有见识过真正可怕的通货膨胀是什么样子。这就意味着,他们见到令人震惊的利率波动或者高通胀数据时,到底会做何反应,已经成了一个微妙的X因素。”</p>\n<p>卡基诺补充道:“就好比在电影院里,突然有人高喊‘着火了’,债券投资者会在同一时间乱哄哄地夺门而逃,抛掉手中期限较长的债券。我们即将目睹的场面会是这样吗?”</p>\n<p>从许多指标看来,美股都已经高估得很厉害了,而股票研究的不少大专家们都在就此发出警告,尤其针对那些高估最严重的领域,比如科技板块。</p>\n<p>当然,经济复苏依然在进行当中,还有很小的概率,盈利会大幅超过预期,支撑着股市继续不管不顾地大步上行。</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>对冲基金大佬:美股估值过高,秋季将迎来盘整</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n对冲基金大佬:美股估值过高,秋季将迎来盘整\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-13 09:53 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XH-mHFcTkWatC7r3zzv2NA><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>对冲基金经理尤斯科认为,伴随经济在今年夏季重启,通货膨胀将迅速窜升,达到比投资者一直以来所预计的还要高的水平。在这种情况下,利率就将随之走高,而利率高企就会打压股价,他说,这一幕最可能发生的时间,将是在秋季的某个时候。“我绝对相信估值迟早要回归公平值的,因为这才是常态。估值不可能永远保持在过高的水平。”\n\n上周,伴随疫苗持续铺开,经济前景向好,美股再度收于创纪录的高点。可是,越是如此,高到令人目眩...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XH-mHFcTkWatC7r3zzv2NA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XH-mHFcTkWatC7r3zzv2NA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194268072","content_text":"对冲基金经理尤斯科认为,伴随经济在今年夏季重启,通货膨胀将迅速窜升,达到比投资者一直以来所预计的还要高的水平。在这种情况下,利率就将随之走高,而利率高企就会打压股价,他说,这一幕最可能发生的时间,将是在秋季的某个时候。“我绝对相信估值迟早要回归公平值的,因为这才是常态。估值不可能永远保持在过高的水平。”\n\n上周,伴随疫苗持续铺开,经济前景向好,美股再度收于创纪录的高点。可是,越是如此,高到令人目眩的估值越是让对冲基金经理人尤斯科(Mark Yusko)感到不安,因为他相信,今年晚些时候,通货膨胀大概率会迅速攀升,导致美股暴跌。\n事实上,在尤斯科看来,股市当下的估值不能说是没有一点道理的。当然,这并不是意味着他看好基本面,他的判断很可能恰恰相反。\n关键是在于,面对着一个充斥着大量现金,受到强力财政和货币刺激的系统,这位对冲基金公司Morgan Creek Capital的创始人也实在难以做出看空的决定。\n不过,如果局面按照现在的势头继续发展下去,那危险性显然只能与日俱增。市场中大量涌动的流动性推高了美股的估值,使得严重回挫的风险变得越来越大。\n“我认为整体而言,美股市场当下的估值已经高到过分了,比史上任何时候都要过分,甚至超过了2000年。”\n“对于这种情况,市场原本可以靠着传统的自身调整机制去解决,但是后者现在也遭到了践踏。现在空头卖家的数量比以往任何时候都要少。无脑的消极投资越来越多,这些投资的策略就决定了无论股价怎样,它们都唯有买进。积极管理投资在缩水,对冲机制在缩水,这些必然会使得价格变动趋势被放大。”\n他补充道:“当最终的清算到来,其惨烈程度就将超过历史水平,超过如果那些不正常的事情没有发生前提下的水平。剩下的问题就是这一天何时到来,而这是极难推断的。”\n尤斯科也承认,如果更多的刺激被注入股市和经济系统,股价完全可能在今年余下的时间当中继续走高。不过他要强调的是,股价最终总要回到公平值,而要达成这一目的,途径只有两条,要么是盈利增长,要么是价格下跌。\n虽然经济复苏强势,推动盈利增长,最终给予高企的股价以合理性,这样一种可能性不能完全排除,但是遗憾的是,另外一种可能性显然要大得多,也可怕得多。\n尤斯科认为,伴随经济在今年夏季重启,通货膨胀将迅速窜升,达到比投资者一直以来所预计的还要高的水平。在这种情况下,利率就将随之走高,而利率高企就会打压股价,他说,这一幕最可能发生的时间,将是在秋季的某个时候。\n“我绝对相信估值迟早要回归公平值的,因为这才是常态。估值不可能永远保持在过高的水平。”\n“在我看来,我们遭遇某种程度的盘整已经是大概率事件。”他继续分析道,“如果利率上涨,那些愚蠢的估值数字,或者说那些泡沫就可能被刺破。我认为,今年秋季,我们很可能会看到股市呈现出重大的弱势。”\n尤斯科介绍说,在他看来,市场上高估最严重的主要是新兴科技企业和云企业的股票,以及所谓故事股票。他还专门举出了一些例子,如Snowflake、Zoom、Beyond Meat。\n对于通货膨胀前景感到担忧的,绝非只有尤斯科一个人。在消费者在疫情期间积攒了巨大的需求,准备在复苏中将大量资金投入经济的背景下,通货膨胀实质上已经成为了美股投资者心中的头号梦魇。\n货币政策制定者联储则明确了他们的态度,表示将允许通货膨胀在未来若干年内高于2%的水平,来与过去十年的低通胀达成某种“平衡”。\n联储主席鲍威尔甚至还说,虽然通货膨胀可能在年内激增,但是美国央行认为那将是一次性的现象,因此不会过多担心。\n可是,投资者会怎么想,就是另外一回事了。如果通货膨胀在今年夏季变得过热,就可能让市场陷入惊慌,诱发一轮抛售行情。Permanent Portfolio Permanent基金投资组合经理人卡基诺(Michael Cuggino)就持此种观点,他担心的是,对于可能到来的通胀水平,投资者依然没有充分估计,因此也没有做好面对的准备。\n“现在其实已经有整整两代的新投资者,他们根本就没有见识过利率剧烈波动的环境,也没有见识过真正可怕的通货膨胀是什么样子。这就意味着,他们见到令人震惊的利率波动或者高通胀数据时,到底会做何反应,已经成了一个微妙的X因素。”\n卡基诺补充道:“就好比在电影院里,突然有人高喊‘着火了’,债券投资者会在同一时间乱哄哄地夺门而逃,抛掉手中期限较长的债券。我们即将目睹的场面会是这样吗?”\n从许多指标看来,美股都已经高估得很厉害了,而股票研究的不少大专家们都在就此发出警告,尤其针对那些高估最严重的领域,比如科技板块。\n当然,经济复苏依然在进行当中,还有很小的概率,盈利会大幅超过预期,支撑着股市继续不管不顾地大步上行。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342718227,"gmtCreate":1618241902669,"gmtModify":1618282445471,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说下美股指数,有人说大a老是不涨,其实大a的指数被太多垃圾股给拖住了,而美股几十年的大牛市还不就是那几只明星股带动,另外道指,纳指以及标普水分很大,可以说是被控盘的","listText":"说下美股指数,有人说大a老是不涨,其实大a的指数被太多垃圾股给拖住了,而美股几十年的大牛市还不就是那几只明星股带动,另外道指,纳指以及标普水分很大,可以说是被控盘的","text":"说下美股指数,有人说大a老是不涨,其实大a的指数被太多垃圾股给拖住了,而美股几十年的大牛市还不就是那几只明星股带动,另外道指,纳指以及标普水分很大,可以说是被控盘的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342718227","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3551260082229928","authorId":"3551260082229928","name":"超短玩家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d94b5f46b00b97fa4ec9db6d906903e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3551260082229928","authorIdStr":"3551260082229928"},"content":"我同意楼主所说,间接的说a股垃圾股太多,上证指数重编才好 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content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小米集团今日回购1601.7万股,耗资3.98亿港币</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小米集团今日回购1601.7万股,耗资3.98亿港币\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-13 21:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周二,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团</a>在港交所公告称,今日回购1601.7万股,耗资3.98亿港币。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7daad417e193e92dd10686cd9da34150\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>周一(4月12日),小米回购1997万股股份,涉资4.986亿港元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae5606ccc8abae46706bd5d6a4fbcab\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3df686d3a6ca977e8c6841905eb7e18c","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150806179","content_text":"周二,小米集团在港交所公告称,今日回购1601.7万股,耗资3.98亿港币。周一(4月12日),小米回购1997万股股份,涉资4.986亿港元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":902904860,"gmtCreate":1559285620150,"gmtModify":1704698119378,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我要发帖升到2级解锁表情求点赞","listText":"我要发帖升到2级解锁表情求点赞","text":"我要发帖升到2级解锁表情求点赞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/902904860","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345345987,"gmtCreate":1618282315649,"gmtModify":1618282315649,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"反着听就行,a股继续跌,美股继续涨","listText":"反着听就行,a股继续跌,美股继续涨","text":"反着听就行,a股继续跌,美股继续涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345345987","repostId":"1194268072","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1194268072","pubTimestamp":1618278826,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194268072?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-13 09:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"对冲基金大佬:美股估值过高,秋季将迎来盘整","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194268072","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"对冲基金经理尤斯科认为,伴随经济在今年夏季重启,通货膨胀将迅速窜升,达到比投资者一直以来所预计的还要高的水平。在这种情况下,利率就将随之走高,而利率高企就会打压股价,他说,这一幕最可能发生的时间,将是","content":"<p>对冲基金经理尤斯科认为,伴随经济在今年夏季重启,通货膨胀将迅速窜升,达到比投资者一直以来所预计的还要高的水平。在这种情况下,利率就将随之走高,而利率高企就会打压股价,他说,这一幕最可能发生的时间,将是在秋季的某个时候。“我绝对相信估值迟早要回归公平值的,因为这才是常态。估值不可能永远保持在过高的水平。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc7c25ee52c6a8b6b04ae796f6602142\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>上周,伴随疫苗持续铺开,经济前景向好,美股再度收于创纪录的高点。可是,越是如此,高到令人目眩的估值越是让对冲基金经理人尤斯科(Mark Yusko)感到不安,因为他相信,今年晚些时候,通货膨胀大概率会迅速攀升,导致美股暴跌。</p>\n<p>事实上,在尤斯科看来,股市当下的估值不能说是没有一点道理的。当然,这并不是意味着他看好基本面,他的判断很可能恰恰相反。</p>\n<p>关键是在于,面对着一个充斥着大量现金,受到强力财政和货币刺激的系统,这位对冲基金公司Morgan Creek Capital的创始人也实在难以做出看空的决定。</p>\n<p>不过,如果局面按照现在的势头继续发展下去,那危险性显然只能与日俱增。市场中大量涌动的流动性推高了美股的估值,使得严重回挫的风险变得越来越大。</p>\n<p>“我认为整体而言,美股市场当下的估值已经高到过分了,比史上任何时候都要过分,甚至超过了2000年。”</p>\n<p>“对于这种情况,市场原本可以靠着传统的自身调整机制去解决,但是后者现在也遭到了践踏。现在空头卖家的数量比以往任何时候都要少。无脑的消极投资越来越多,这些投资的策略就决定了无论股价怎样,它们都唯有买进。积极管理投资在缩水,对冲机制在缩水,这些必然会使得价格变动趋势被放大。”</p>\n<p>他补充道:“当最终的清算到来,其惨烈程度就将超过历史水平,超过如果那些不正常的事情没有发生前提下的水平。剩下的问题就是这一天何时到来,而这是极难推断的。”</p>\n<p>尤斯科也承认,如果更多的刺激被注入股市和经济系统,股价完全可能在今年余下的时间当中继续走高。不过他要强调的是,股价最终总要回到公平值,而要达成这一目的,途径只有两条,要么是盈利增长,要么是价格下跌。</p>\n<p>虽然经济复苏强势,推动盈利增长,最终给予高企的股价以合理性,这样一种可能性不能完全排除,但是遗憾的是,另外一种可能性显然要大得多,也可怕得多。</p>\n<p>尤斯科认为,伴随经济在今年夏季重启,通货膨胀将迅速窜升,达到比投资者一直以来所预计的还要高的水平。在这种情况下,利率就将随之走高,而利率高企就会打压股价,他说,这一幕最可能发生的时间,将是在秋季的某个时候。</p>\n<p>“我绝对相信估值迟早要回归公平值的,因为这才是常态。估值不可能永远保持在过高的水平。”</p>\n<p>“在我看来,我们遭遇某种程度的盘整已经是大概率事件。”他继续分析道,“如果利率上涨,那些愚蠢的估值数字,或者说那些泡沫就可能被刺破。我认为,今年秋季,我们很可能会看到股市呈现出重大的弱势。”</p>\n<p>尤斯科介绍说,在他看来,市场上高估最严重的主要是新兴科技企业和云企业的股票,以及所谓故事股票。他还专门举出了一些例子,如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>、Beyond Meat。</p>\n<p>对于通货膨胀前景感到担忧的,绝非只有尤斯科一个人。在消费者在疫情期间积攒了巨大的需求,准备在复苏中将大量资金投入经济的背景下,通货膨胀实质上已经成为了美股投资者心中的头号梦魇。</p>\n<p>货币政策制定者联储则明确了他们的态度,表示将允许通货膨胀在未来若干年内高于2%的水平,来与过去十年的低通胀达成某种“平衡”。</p>\n<p>联储主席鲍威尔甚至还说,虽然通货膨胀可能在年内激增,但是美国央行认为那将是一次性的现象,因此不会过多担心。</p>\n<p>可是,投资者会怎么想,就是另外一回事了。如果通货膨胀在今年夏季变得过热,就可能让市场陷入惊慌,诱发一轮抛售行情。Permanent Portfolio Permanent基金投资组合经理人卡基诺(Michael Cuggino)就持此种观点,他担心的是,对于可能到来的通胀水平,投资者依然没有充分估计,因此也没有做好面对的准备。</p>\n<p>“现在其实已经有整整两代的新投资者,他们根本就没有见识过利率剧烈波动的环境,也没有见识过真正可怕的通货膨胀是什么样子。这就意味着,他们见到令人震惊的利率波动或者高通胀数据时,到底会做何反应,已经成了一个微妙的X因素。”</p>\n<p>卡基诺补充道:“就好比在电影院里,突然有人高喊‘着火了’,债券投资者会在同一时间乱哄哄地夺门而逃,抛掉手中期限较长的债券。我们即将目睹的场面会是这样吗?”</p>\n<p>从许多指标看来,美股都已经高估得很厉害了,而股票研究的不少大专家们都在就此发出警告,尤其针对那些高估最严重的领域,比如科技板块。</p>\n<p>当然,经济复苏依然在进行当中,还有很小的概率,盈利会大幅超过预期,支撑着股市继续不管不顾地大步上行。</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>对冲基金大佬:美股估值过高,秋季将迎来盘整</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n对冲基金大佬:美股估值过高,秋季将迎来盘整\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-13 09:53 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XH-mHFcTkWatC7r3zzv2NA><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>对冲基金经理尤斯科认为,伴随经济在今年夏季重启,通货膨胀将迅速窜升,达到比投资者一直以来所预计的还要高的水平。在这种情况下,利率就将随之走高,而利率高企就会打压股价,他说,这一幕最可能发生的时间,将是在秋季的某个时候。“我绝对相信估值迟早要回归公平值的,因为这才是常态。估值不可能永远保持在过高的水平。”\n\n上周,伴随疫苗持续铺开,经济前景向好,美股再度收于创纪录的高点。可是,越是如此,高到令人目眩...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XH-mHFcTkWatC7r3zzv2NA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XH-mHFcTkWatC7r3zzv2NA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194268072","content_text":"对冲基金经理尤斯科认为,伴随经济在今年夏季重启,通货膨胀将迅速窜升,达到比投资者一直以来所预计的还要高的水平。在这种情况下,利率就将随之走高,而利率高企就会打压股价,他说,这一幕最可能发生的时间,将是在秋季的某个时候。“我绝对相信估值迟早要回归公平值的,因为这才是常态。估值不可能永远保持在过高的水平。”\n\n上周,伴随疫苗持续铺开,经济前景向好,美股再度收于创纪录的高点。可是,越是如此,高到令人目眩的估值越是让对冲基金经理人尤斯科(Mark Yusko)感到不安,因为他相信,今年晚些时候,通货膨胀大概率会迅速攀升,导致美股暴跌。\n事实上,在尤斯科看来,股市当下的估值不能说是没有一点道理的。当然,这并不是意味着他看好基本面,他的判断很可能恰恰相反。\n关键是在于,面对着一个充斥着大量现金,受到强力财政和货币刺激的系统,这位对冲基金公司Morgan Creek Capital的创始人也实在难以做出看空的决定。\n不过,如果局面按照现在的势头继续发展下去,那危险性显然只能与日俱增。市场中大量涌动的流动性推高了美股的估值,使得严重回挫的风险变得越来越大。\n“我认为整体而言,美股市场当下的估值已经高到过分了,比史上任何时候都要过分,甚至超过了2000年。”\n“对于这种情况,市场原本可以靠着传统的自身调整机制去解决,但是后者现在也遭到了践踏。现在空头卖家的数量比以往任何时候都要少。无脑的消极投资越来越多,这些投资的策略就决定了无论股价怎样,它们都唯有买进。积极管理投资在缩水,对冲机制在缩水,这些必然会使得价格变动趋势被放大。”\n他补充道:“当最终的清算到来,其惨烈程度就将超过历史水平,超过如果那些不正常的事情没有发生前提下的水平。剩下的问题就是这一天何时到来,而这是极难推断的。”\n尤斯科也承认,如果更多的刺激被注入股市和经济系统,股价完全可能在今年余下的时间当中继续走高。不过他要强调的是,股价最终总要回到公平值,而要达成这一目的,途径只有两条,要么是盈利增长,要么是价格下跌。\n虽然经济复苏强势,推动盈利增长,最终给予高企的股价以合理性,这样一种可能性不能完全排除,但是遗憾的是,另外一种可能性显然要大得多,也可怕得多。\n尤斯科认为,伴随经济在今年夏季重启,通货膨胀将迅速窜升,达到比投资者一直以来所预计的还要高的水平。在这种情况下,利率就将随之走高,而利率高企就会打压股价,他说,这一幕最可能发生的时间,将是在秋季的某个时候。\n“我绝对相信估值迟早要回归公平值的,因为这才是常态。估值不可能永远保持在过高的水平。”\n“在我看来,我们遭遇某种程度的盘整已经是大概率事件。”他继续分析道,“如果利率上涨,那些愚蠢的估值数字,或者说那些泡沫就可能被刺破。我认为,今年秋季,我们很可能会看到股市呈现出重大的弱势。”\n尤斯科介绍说,在他看来,市场上高估最严重的主要是新兴科技企业和云企业的股票,以及所谓故事股票。他还专门举出了一些例子,如Snowflake、Zoom、Beyond Meat。\n对于通货膨胀前景感到担忧的,绝非只有尤斯科一个人。在消费者在疫情期间积攒了巨大的需求,准备在复苏中将大量资金投入经济的背景下,通货膨胀实质上已经成为了美股投资者心中的头号梦魇。\n货币政策制定者联储则明确了他们的态度,表示将允许通货膨胀在未来若干年内高于2%的水平,来与过去十年的低通胀达成某种“平衡”。\n联储主席鲍威尔甚至还说,虽然通货膨胀可能在年内激增,但是美国央行认为那将是一次性的现象,因此不会过多担心。\n可是,投资者会怎么想,就是另外一回事了。如果通货膨胀在今年夏季变得过热,就可能让市场陷入惊慌,诱发一轮抛售行情。Permanent Portfolio Permanent基金投资组合经理人卡基诺(Michael Cuggino)就持此种观点,他担心的是,对于可能到来的通胀水平,投资者依然没有充分估计,因此也没有做好面对的准备。\n“现在其实已经有整整两代的新投资者,他们根本就没有见识过利率剧烈波动的环境,也没有见识过真正可怕的通货膨胀是什么样子。这就意味着,他们见到令人震惊的利率波动或者高通胀数据时,到底会做何反应,已经成了一个微妙的X因素。”\n卡基诺补充道:“就好比在电影院里,突然有人高喊‘着火了’,债券投资者会在同一时间乱哄哄地夺门而逃,抛掉手中期限较长的债券。我们即将目睹的场面会是这样吗?”\n从许多指标看来,美股都已经高估得很厉害了,而股票研究的不少大专家们都在就此发出警告,尤其针对那些高估最严重的领域,比如科技板块。\n当然,经济复苏依然在进行当中,还有很小的概率,盈利会大幅超过预期,支撑着股市继续不管不顾地大步上行。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330116579,"gmtCreate":1608556273391,"gmtModify":1703735387952,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"市值这么高还要继续圈?","listText":"市值这么高还要继续圈?","text":"市值这么高还要继续圈?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330116579","repostId":"1109216945","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":264017156833608,"gmtCreate":1705474517505,"gmtModify":1705474518261,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399006\">$创业板指(399006)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399006\">$创业板指(399006)$ </a>","text":"$创业板指(399006)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/264017156833608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257347166937384,"gmtCreate":1703862507257,"gmtModify":1703862508789,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"从哪能看到增发了","listText":"从哪能看到增发了","text":"从哪能看到增发了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/257347166937384","repostId":"257328383041560","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":257328383041560,"gmtCreate":1703857870343,"gmtModify":1703859377741,"author":{"id":"3571209630068066","authorId":"3571209630068066","name":"小福哥儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ef9be0add6c14d1316034a0077e646c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571209630068066","authorIdStr":"3571209630068066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a>美股也是垃圾,这逼玩意增发了两次,也不强制退市","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a>美股也是垃圾,这逼玩意增发了两次,也不强制退市","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 美股也是垃圾,这逼玩意增发了两次,也不强制退市","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/257328383041560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":250525700239488,"gmtCreate":1702180539093,"gmtModify":1702183375427,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"简直尼玛胡扯","listText":"简直尼玛胡扯","text":"简直尼玛胡扯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/250525700239488","repostId":"1147703408","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1147703408","pubTimestamp":1702176399,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147703408?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-10 10:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"事关“2024年降息”,下周美欧英三大央行决议,市场紧盯蛛丝马迹","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147703408","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场预计美欧英央行将“按兵不动”,明年大幅降息尚未“板上钉钉”。最受关注的美联储年内最后一次议息将在下周二-下周三举行;下周四,欧洲央行和英国央行也将举行年内最后一次利率会议。美联储和欧洲央行则面临较大的不确定性,市场则已经押注美联储和欧央行继续“按兵不动”,并将在明年上半年开启宽松周期。巴西央行将在下周三继续第四次降息,降息50个基点至11.75%。另外,彭博预测拉丁美洲各大央行将在2024年降息。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>市场预计美欧英央行将“按兵不动”,明年大幅降息尚未“板上钉钉”。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">明年,全球央行会迎来宽松周期吗?</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最受关注的美联储年内最后一次议息将在下周二-下周三(12月12日-13日)举行;下周四(12月14日),欧洲央行和英国央行也将举行年内最后一次利率会议。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除挪威外,大多数地区都面临着通胀放缓和经济疲软的趋势,这也让市场加大了对2024年上半年降息的押注。就在三个月前,美联储主席鲍威尔曾发出鹰派警告:将利率维持在“更高更久”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在以加息为主导的拉丁美洲,大多数央行已经开始降息,巴西和秘鲁都可能在未来一周降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储和欧洲央行则面临较大的不确定性,市场则已经押注美联储和欧央行继续“按兵不动”,并将在明年上半年开启宽松周期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通全球研究主席Joyce Chang接受媒体采访时表示:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“央行行长们说,‘看,我们正在等待,看看我们所看到的通货紧缩是否可持续。’” </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们认为直到今年下半年才会看到削减。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_3673238184\">美联储:明年大幅降息尚未成定论</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去一个月,美国通胀数据显示通胀正在降温,为美联储降息的预期提供支持。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国10月核心CPI超预期放缓至4%;美国10月核心PCE同比放缓至3.5% ,个人支出、收入增速均放缓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据媒体的预测,下周四将公布的11月PCE数据将显示“消费者变得更加谨慎”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但,就业数据和11月通胀数据可能打击降息预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周五公布的美国11月非农就业人数超预期增加,失业率上升,工资环比增幅达到年内最高,表明劳动力市场依旧坚挺。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体称,市场预期将于下周二公布的11月核心CPI环比增速将由0.2%加速至0.3%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">面对走向分化的经济数据,彭博经济学家Anna Wong、Stuart Paul等表示:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“美联储没有理由表现得太急于降息,以免金融状况进一步宽松。虽然12月的FOMC会议可能不会完全支持债券市场明年大幅降息的定价,但我们认为它会<strong>实现一半左右</strong>。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_4278790092\">欧央行:最迟明年6月开始降息</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从经济数据来看,欧元区经济有衰退的迹象,并显示通胀正在降温。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体称,欧央行行长Christine Lagarde可能会试图缓和市场对欧洲央行于明年四月降息25个基点的预期。原因在于,尽管劳动力市场正在显示出好转的迹象,但政策制定者并不完全相信消费者价格面临的危险已经过去,并希望看到更多工资数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">欧央行“大鹰派”Isabel Schnabel称迄今为止的通胀放缓“引人注目”,并表示目前不太可能进一步加息。她的发言让市场加大押注明年一季度欧央行将率先降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">她在下周提出的新预测,尤其是对经济增长和通胀风险的看法将为市场预期带来指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">针对欧央行的经济状况,彭博经济学家给出的观点是:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“考虑到通胀前景的风险,欧洲央行可能对3月降息的利率掉期定价不满意。我们仍然认为<strong>首次降息将在六月进行</strong>,风险倾向于尽早采取行动。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2171781448\">英央行:仍需对抗通胀</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年9月以来,英国央行已经连续两次维持利率在十五年来的最高水平。彭博给出的预测是,下周四英国央行依旧“按兵不动”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">经济数据方面,英国10月CPI大幅下降至4.6%,创两年来新低。目前市场预测英国将于明年6月开始降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,媒体观点认为,在劳动力市场依然紧张和服务业价格压力依然存在的情况下,英国央行可能会需要在“较长”一段时间内保持限制性,以防止通胀高于2%。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们预计英国央行将加倍强调其政策可能<strong>在较长时间内保持限制性</strong>的依据有——服务业通胀过高,并且有初步迹象表明经济可能在第四季度重新获得一些动力。实现2%的通胀率还有很长的路要走。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2623431107\">其他主要央行</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞士的通胀水平目前远低于2%的目标,市场猜测瑞士央行不会像欧洲央行那样迅速降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,由于瑞士经济增长乏力,<strong>瑞士央行</strong>在下周四公布最新利率决定时将需要考虑借贷成本对经济前景的影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">挪威最新的经济数据再显疲软,其化石燃料行业缓解了通胀居高不下和信贷成本上升的部分影响,但建筑活动急剧下降,零售活动也在放缓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外,在挪威央行本周举行的一项重要情绪调查显示,由于企业面临更多的闲置产能和更少的招聘问题,本季度经济发展或将停滞,在2024年初出现紧缩。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彭博预测<strong>挪威央行</strong>将在下周四公布是否继续最后加息25个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彭博预测,<strong>俄罗斯央行</strong>将在下周五再加息100个基点至16%。因其致力于将利率拉回至4%的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>巴西央行</strong>将在下周三继续第四次降息,降息50个基点至11.75%。彭博认为,经济降温和通胀放缓已经达到央行目标范围,市场预计巴西央行将在2024年一季度保持这一增速,放慢降息步伐。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外,彭博预测<strong>拉丁美洲各大央行将在2024年降息</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>墨西哥</strong>将在周四将连续第六次将关键利率维持在11.25%,州长Victoria Rodriguez表示,降息讨论可能会在2024年初开始;分析师一致认为,宽松周期将从第一季度开始。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>秘鲁</strong>经济发出衰退警告,已经连续数月陷入通缩,因此秘鲁央行可能在连续三次降息25个基点后再降50个基点。厄尔尼诺现象相关的干扰和持续的政治动荡给通胀带来上行风险,该行行长Julio Velarde可能能会坚持到底,将关键利率从7%下调至6.75%。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>事关“2024年降息”,下周美欧英三大央行决议,市场紧盯蛛丝马迹</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n事关“2024年降息”,下周美欧英三大央行决议,市场紧盯蛛丝马迹\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-10 10:46 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3703858><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场预计美欧英央行将“按兵不动”,明年大幅降息尚未“板上钉钉”。明年,全球央行会迎来宽松周期吗?最受关注的美联储年内最后一次议息将在下周二-下周三(12月12日-13日)举行;下周四(12月14日),欧洲央行和英国央行也将举行年内最后一次利率会议。除挪威外,大多数地区都面临着通胀放缓和经济疲软的趋势,这也让市场加大了对2024年上半年降息的押注。就在三个月前,美联储主席鲍威尔曾发出鹰派警告:将利率...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3703858\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0bbe341ac5d74e1a8d74c9ca5de715","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3703858","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147703408","content_text":"市场预计美欧英央行将“按兵不动”,明年大幅降息尚未“板上钉钉”。明年,全球央行会迎来宽松周期吗?最受关注的美联储年内最后一次议息将在下周二-下周三(12月12日-13日)举行;下周四(12月14日),欧洲央行和英国央行也将举行年内最后一次利率会议。除挪威外,大多数地区都面临着通胀放缓和经济疲软的趋势,这也让市场加大了对2024年上半年降息的押注。就在三个月前,美联储主席鲍威尔曾发出鹰派警告:将利率维持在“更高更久”。在以加息为主导的拉丁美洲,大多数央行已经开始降息,巴西和秘鲁都可能在未来一周降息。美联储和欧洲央行则面临较大的不确定性,市场则已经押注美联储和欧央行继续“按兵不动”,并将在明年上半年开启宽松周期。摩根大通全球研究主席Joyce Chang接受媒体采访时表示:“央行行长们说,‘看,我们正在等待,看看我们所看到的通货紧缩是否可持续。’” “我们认为直到今年下半年才会看到削减。”美联储:明年大幅降息尚未成定论过去一个月,美国通胀数据显示通胀正在降温,为美联储降息的预期提供支持。美国10月核心CPI超预期放缓至4%;美国10月核心PCE同比放缓至3.5% ,个人支出、收入增速均放缓。根据媒体的预测,下周四将公布的11月PCE数据将显示“消费者变得更加谨慎”。但,就业数据和11月通胀数据可能打击降息预期。周五公布的美国11月非农就业人数超预期增加,失业率上升,工资环比增幅达到年内最高,表明劳动力市场依旧坚挺。媒体称,市场预期将于下周二公布的11月核心CPI环比增速将由0.2%加速至0.3%。面对走向分化的经济数据,彭博经济学家Anna Wong、Stuart Paul等表示:“美联储没有理由表现得太急于降息,以免金融状况进一步宽松。虽然12月的FOMC会议可能不会完全支持债券市场明年大幅降息的定价,但我们认为它会实现一半左右。”欧央行:最迟明年6月开始降息从经济数据来看,欧元区经济有衰退的迹象,并显示通胀正在降温。媒体称,欧央行行长Christine Lagarde可能会试图缓和市场对欧洲央行于明年四月降息25个基点的预期。原因在于,尽管劳动力市场正在显示出好转的迹象,但政策制定者并不完全相信消费者价格面临的危险已经过去,并希望看到更多工资数据。欧央行“大鹰派”Isabel Schnabel称迄今为止的通胀放缓“引人注目”,并表示目前不太可能进一步加息。她的发言让市场加大押注明年一季度欧央行将率先降息。她在下周提出的新预测,尤其是对经济增长和通胀风险的看法将为市场预期带来指引。针对欧央行的经济状况,彭博经济学家给出的观点是:“考虑到通胀前景的风险,欧洲央行可能对3月降息的利率掉期定价不满意。我们仍然认为首次降息将在六月进行,风险倾向于尽早采取行动。”英央行:仍需对抗通胀今年9月以来,英国央行已经连续两次维持利率在十五年来的最高水平。彭博给出的预测是,下周四英国央行依旧“按兵不动”。经济数据方面,英国10月CPI大幅下降至4.6%,创两年来新低。目前市场预测英国将于明年6月开始降息。不过,媒体观点认为,在劳动力市场依然紧张和服务业价格压力依然存在的情况下,英国央行可能会需要在“较长”一段时间内保持限制性,以防止通胀高于2%。“我们预计英国央行将加倍强调其政策可能在较长时间内保持限制性的依据有——服务业通胀过高,并且有初步迹象表明经济可能在第四季度重新获得一些动力。实现2%的通胀率还有很长的路要走。”其他主要央行瑞士的通胀水平目前远低于2%的目标,市场猜测瑞士央行不会像欧洲央行那样迅速降息。不过,由于瑞士经济增长乏力,瑞士央行在下周四公布最新利率决定时将需要考虑借贷成本对经济前景的影响。挪威最新的经济数据再显疲软,其化石燃料行业缓解了通胀居高不下和信贷成本上升的部分影响,但建筑活动急剧下降,零售活动也在放缓。另外,在挪威央行本周举行的一项重要情绪调查显示,由于企业面临更多的闲置产能和更少的招聘问题,本季度经济发展或将停滞,在2024年初出现紧缩。彭博预测挪威央行将在下周四公布是否继续最后加息25个基点。彭博预测,俄罗斯央行将在下周五再加息100个基点至16%。因其致力于将利率拉回至4%的水平。巴西央行将在下周三继续第四次降息,降息50个基点至11.75%。彭博认为,经济降温和通胀放缓已经达到央行目标范围,市场预计巴西央行将在2024年一季度保持这一增速,放慢降息步伐。另外,彭博预测拉丁美洲各大央行将在2024年降息。墨西哥将在周四将连续第六次将关键利率维持在11.25%,州长Victoria Rodriguez表示,降息讨论可能会在2024年初开始;分析师一致认为,宽松周期将从第一季度开始。秘鲁经济发出衰退警告,已经连续数月陷入通缩,因此秘鲁央行可能在连续三次降息25个基点后再降50个基点。厄尔尼诺现象相关的干扰和持续的政治动荡给通胀带来上行风险,该行行长Julio Velarde可能能会坚持到底,将关键利率从7%下调至6.75%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":855,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":625365741,"gmtCreate":1676199800483,"gmtModify":1676199803814,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>额额呃呃呃","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>额额呃呃呃","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$ 额额呃呃呃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625365741","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":666920878,"gmtCreate":1665380237794,"gmtModify":1665380241324,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"回购了百分之一的市值都不到也叫大手笔?","listText":"回购了百分之一的市值都不到也叫大手笔?","text":"回购了百分之一的市值都不到也叫大手笔?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666920878","repostId":"1119643126","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104356672,"gmtCreate":1620358533296,"gmtModify":1620359154136,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"傻批反着来就行了","listText":"傻批反着来就行了","text":"傻批反着来就行了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104356672","repostId":"1117182359","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":101387002,"gmtCreate":1619846173906,"gmtModify":1619850400465,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这么高的位置还在忽悠接盘哈哈","listText":"这么高的位置还在忽悠接盘哈哈","text":"这么高的位置还在忽悠接盘哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101387002","repostId":"2131530865","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2131530865","pubTimestamp":1619755963,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2131530865?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-30 12:12","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"回购潮报复性回归,空前资金将灌入美股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2131530865","media":"金十数据","summary":"两大科技巨头总计宣布了1400亿美元的回购计划,数据显示标普500成分公司所持现金已达创纪录的2.7万亿美元。","content":"<p><b>美国企业的股票回购正报复性回归。 </b></p>\n<p>两家大型科技公司本周做出的回购股票承诺,激发了人们对更多公司会效仿的希望。这可能为处于创纪录高位的美国股市提供进一步支撑。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet Inc.周二表示,<b>已拨出多达500亿美元的资金用于回购股票。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司也不甘示弱,一天后承诺将回购900亿美元股票。两家公司的回购金额都比之前的授权有了显著增加,并且可能预示着在新冠危机期间大幅削减股东回报之后,企业已经准备好将不断增加的现金储备返还部分给股东。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c173a7501c1ca72963c4a44532d5b9c0\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>美国企业的股票回购自截至去年6月底触底以来,一直在缓慢回升。2020年最后一个季度的回购额环比增长28%达到1200亿美元,但仍然与去年第一季的1977亿美元相去甚远。</p>\n<p>彭博行业研究汇总的数据显示,<b>标普500指数公司资产负债表上的现金已经达到创纪录的2.7万亿美元</b>。</p>\n<p>仅Alphabet的500亿美元回购就超过了标普500指数公司在上一个财报季节相同时点的所有回购授权。苹果900亿美元的回购规模甚至超过了标普500指数中80%以上的成分股市值,其中包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>。</p>\n<p>自本月早些时候财报季开始以来,已经有至少九家标普500指数成分企业宣布了回购计划。未来数周,<b>回购将成为财报利好后对冲获利抛盘的主要利多因素</b>。</p>\n<p>此前,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>、德银、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>等投行均预期美股未来数周乃至数月将进入调整状态,但它们显然忽略了回购这个因素,要知道,回购操作在过去十年推动美股持续走高的过程中功不可没,而如今回购潮显然正处于蓄势待发的状态。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>分析师John Flood在最新报告中指出,疫情发生后的企业回购静默期已经结束。<b>2021年至今为止上市公司批准回购授权的金额较2020年同期大涨75%,较2019和2018年同期亦分别上涨24%和26%</b>。考虑到2018年是创纪录的回购大年,今年美股上市公司有望重启大幅买入自家股票的节奏。</p>\n<p>根据高盛的交易数据,2021年至今的日均交易量(ADTV)约为2020年同期的1.6倍,与2019年相当,但仅为2018年同期的0.9倍。这意味着接下来上市公司将重新启动回购工具推动股价上行,或者等待5%-10%的回撤后指令投行开始操作,同样也能收复失地并推动股价再创新高。</p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n回购潮报复性回归,空前资金将灌入美股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-30 12:12 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=73908&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国企业的股票回购正报复性回归。 \n两家大型科技公司本周做出的回购股票承诺,激发了人们对更多公司会效仿的希望。这可能为处于创纪录高位的美国股市提供进一步支撑。\n谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc.周二表示,已拨出多达500亿美元的资金用于回购股票。苹果公司也不甘示弱,一天后承诺将回购900亿美元股票。两家公司的回购金额都比之前的授权有了显著增加,并且可能预示着在新冠危机期间大幅削减股东回报之后,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=73908&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff216d1e58143a1c85e4e4d285f9d70d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","03086":"华夏纳指",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","09086":"华夏纳指-U","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=73908&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2131530865","content_text":"美国企业的股票回购正报复性回归。 \n两家大型科技公司本周做出的回购股票承诺,激发了人们对更多公司会效仿的希望。这可能为处于创纪录高位的美国股市提供进一步支撑。\n谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc.周二表示,已拨出多达500亿美元的资金用于回购股票。苹果公司也不甘示弱,一天后承诺将回购900亿美元股票。两家公司的回购金额都比之前的授权有了显著增加,并且可能预示着在新冠危机期间大幅削减股东回报之后,企业已经准备好将不断增加的现金储备返还部分给股东。\n\n美国企业的股票回购自截至去年6月底触底以来,一直在缓慢回升。2020年最后一个季度的回购额环比增长28%达到1200亿美元,但仍然与去年第一季的1977亿美元相去甚远。\n彭博行业研究汇总的数据显示,标普500指数公司资产负债表上的现金已经达到创纪录的2.7万亿美元。\n仅Alphabet的500亿美元回购就超过了标普500指数公司在上一个财报季节相同时点的所有回购授权。苹果900亿美元的回购规模甚至超过了标普500指数中80%以上的成分股市值,其中包括通用汽车。\n自本月早些时候财报季开始以来,已经有至少九家标普500指数成分企业宣布了回购计划。未来数周,回购将成为财报利好后对冲获利抛盘的主要利多因素。\n此前,摩根大通、德银、摩根士丹利等投行均预期美股未来数周乃至数月将进入调整状态,但它们显然忽略了回购这个因素,要知道,回购操作在过去十年推动美股持续走高的过程中功不可没,而如今回购潮显然正处于蓄势待发的状态。\n高盛分析师John Flood在最新报告中指出,疫情发生后的企业回购静默期已经结束。2021年至今为止上市公司批准回购授权的金额较2020年同期大涨75%,较2019和2018年同期亦分别上涨24%和26%。考虑到2018年是创纪录的回购大年,今年美股上市公司有望重启大幅买入自家股票的节奏。\n根据高盛的交易数据,2021年至今的日均交易量(ADTV)约为2020年同期的1.6倍,与2019年相当,但仅为2018年同期的0.9倍。这意味着接下来上市公司将重新启动回购工具推动股价上行,或者等待5%-10%的回撤后指令投行开始操作,同样也能收复失地并推动股价再创新高。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":376905623,"gmtCreate":1619076766362,"gmtModify":1619076766362,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"傻**,这也叫跌看看大a","listText":"傻**,这也叫跌看看大a","text":"傻**,这也叫跌看看大a","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376905623","repostId":"1110329365","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336485986,"gmtCreate":1610123231845,"gmtModify":1703742994259,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈圈钱","listText":"哈哈圈钱","text":"哈哈圈钱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336485986","repostId":"2101762878","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":301081952,"gmtCreate":1603290543876,"gmtModify":1703829421389,"author":{"id":"3467882359382011","authorId":"3467882359382011","name":"T2021121357","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3467882359382011","authorIdStr":"3467882359382011"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"牛皮吹的再好也没用,姜太公钓鱼,一个愿打一个愿挨","listText":"牛皮吹的再好也没用,姜太公钓鱼,一个愿打一个愿挨","text":"牛皮吹的再好也没用,姜太公钓鱼,一个愿打一个愿挨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/301081952","repostId":"1108518407","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}