Pconcool的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Pconcool

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2023-12-19

$百度(BIDU)$ 国别互换，评论过[开心]

2021-12-03

$滴滴(DIDI)$真是满门忠烈，祸害整个中丐股！

2021-11-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$目标价700元

2021-10-30

$百度(BIDU)$为何市场无视任何百度利好，也无视苹果，亚马逊任何利空，可大清早已经亡了！

2021-10-12

$老虎证券(TIGR)$上涨如便秘了，下跌如血崩！

2021-09-30

$老虎证券(TIGR)$有病吧，财报后跌了差不多60%

2021-08-26

断章取义，以偏概全

自动驾驶问题频现！百度的宝，又押错了

2021-06-18

为什么百度如此不受待见，炒股不就是炒预期吗

2021-05-18

$百度(BIDU)$那帮白眼狼，这个业绩这个估值还不满意，你们想怎么样！

2021-04-23

$特斯拉(TSLA)$广州特斯拉禁止上高速？

2021-03-26

$百度(BIDU)$百度总比快手这种垃圾好好多吧

2020-12-24

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$阿里市值低于特斯拉，搞笑

2020-12-01

$特斯拉(TSLA)$历史上最大的泡沫

2020-11-20

就这水平，拉黑！

阿里跌倒，能喂饱京东拼多多吗？

2020-11-19

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$特斯拉再涨50%，就超过你了

2020-08-31

$特斯拉(TSLA)$目标价200

2018-08-08

$趣店(QD)$ 互金整治办打击逃废债：P2P尽快报送老赖信息！这么大一个利好消息居然无视！北京市金融局向各区互联网金融专项整治办下发《关于报送P2P平台借款人逃废债信息的通知》（下称：通知）。通知指出，近期部分P2P网贷平台借款人发生“恶意逃废债、逾期不还情形，一定程度上加剧了P2P网货行业风险。为严厉打击借款人恶意逃废债行为，请各地尽快上报相关信息。下一步，国家整治办拟协调征信管理部门将上述逃废债信息纳入征信系统和信用中国数据库对相关逃废债行为人形成制约。

2018-07-20

$苹果(AAPL)$ 苹果财报之日，就是美股崩盘之时！

2018-03-08

$迅雷(XNET)$ 今天开始，迅雷进入主升浪！

2017-12-18

低开高走的节奏

$迅雷(XNET)$ 今天大概率是低开高走的节奏

低开高走的节奏

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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11:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"自动驾驶问题频现！百度的宝，又押错了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2162069977","media":"功夫财经","summary":"对此，蔚来方面予以否认。就此而言，为了推广自动驾驶，百度明显存在过度营销。可见，真正的自动驾驶尚未实现。这是自动辅助驾驶必须要进行权衡的地方。因此，当前的自动驾驶都是营销的话术而已。2015年，马斯克开始不断宣扬特斯拉自动驾驶功能的安全性。一句话，都在吃“自动驾驶”的豆腐。前述已经指出，现阶段的自动驾驶系统根本不是代替人，而是辅助人来驾驶。症结在于，自动驾驶目的在于辅助人，但却需要人的警惕配合。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13921110076/0\"/><p>作者：马良，资深新媒体人</p><p>8月12日，一辆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>ES8发生事故，车主林某不幸身亡；此前，7月30日一辆蔚来EC6也出现事故，车内人员也不幸身亡。</p><p>这两起事故的疑似原因均指向蔚来的地图领航功能NOP，一种基于高精地图实现路径规划的自动驾驶辅助功能。</p><p>据悉，林某家属及律师认为蔚来工作人员有私自接触车辆的行为，可能“破坏”证据，因此报案。对此，蔚来方面予以否认。但依照<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>科技讯，该案已获受理，且22日有了新进展。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13921110146/0\"/><p>在提供的两份证据中，包括蔚来工作人员承认私自接触车辆的视频和录音。这不仅引发了对蔚来责任的“声讨”，而且相关分析激起了对“自动驾驶”的怀疑。</p><p>要知道，包括蔚来、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、小鹏、北汽极狐等车企，都曾把自动驾驶能力作为自家“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>汽车”的核心卖点。</p><p>此次迫于社会压力，一些车企开始变得“稳健”。</p><p>其中，理想官网将“高级”二字于“理想AD高级辅助驾驶系统”中删除，小鹏宣发则把“XPILOT 3.5自动驾驶辅助系统”更改为“XPILOT 3.0 智能辅助驾驶系统”。</p><p>此外，美联社一则报道也值得注意，美国国家公路交通安全管理局开始调查特斯拉的自动辅助驾驶功能。</p><p>在众多车企纷纷厘清“自动驾驶”概念或“装鸵鸟”时，百度却逆势而动。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13921110140/0\"/><p>8月18日，“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>世界大会2021”上，李彦宏不仅邀请撒贝宁同乘Apollo“汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>”，而且指称该车具备“L5级自动驾驶能力、语音人脸的多模交互能力以及机器人自身的学习进化能力。”</p><p>同时，李彦宏还当场表示：“百度Apollo已经从技术验证阶段进入到规模化商业运营阶段。”</p><p>问题在于，百度的“汽车机器人”真具备“自动驾驶”能力吗？当前，蔚来卷进责任纠纷，特斯拉遭遇官方调查，业界人士展开激烈辨析，百度到底是“死鸭子嘴硬”“赚黑心钱”还是“胸有成竹”呢？不管怎样，百度没有反省。</p><p>从行业来看，一旦自动驾驶这一卖点被戳破，那么智能汽车被鼓吹起来的高市值还能维持吗？</p><p>1</p><p>估值逻辑：百度在悄悄转变</p><p>近年来百度不断加码研发，重点方向之一就是自动驾驶。为此，百度不仅规划了共享无人车、ASD（Apollo自动驾驶）、造车三个商业化路径，而且愿景更是成为自动驾驶解决方案提供商。</p><p>但是，不管是从营收结构还是大众印象看，都表明百度主要还是一家“广告公司”。尽管如此，百度变革估值逻辑的意图却显露无疑，尤其值得注意的是，这一变革确实在悄悄转变。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13921110142/0\"/><p>百度在转型成为科技型互联网企业的路上，在自动驾驶领域的狂飙猛进称得上是一个典型表现。</p><p>2013年，百度开启无人车项目；2015年，自动驾驶事业部成立。当时，高级副总裁王劲任该事业部总经理，公开宣称要促进自动驾驶汽车的“技术化、产品化、商业化”。</p><p>为此，2015年起百度每年要烧掉上百亿元，其中仅2020年的研发投入就超过了200亿元。</p><p>也因此，百度的估值逻辑开始正式转变。2013年，百度每股80美元；2015年，最低每股仍在百美元区间；等到2016年，已基本稳定在150美元以上；特别地，见张趋势非常显眼。</p><p>看到估值的变化，被激励的李彦宏开始亲自下场为自动驾驶代言。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13921110080/0\"/><p>2017年7月，李彦宏在百度AI开发者大会上进行视频直播，展示了自己乘坐公司研发的无人驾驶汽车的情景。在视频中，驾驶座空着，而李彦宏则坐在副驾驶座位上，称“车处在自动驾驶的状态。”</p><p>尽管这次李彦宏被交警开了罚单，但百度也并没有反省，而是趁机宣发，李彦宏更是公开表示，“如果无人驾驶的罚单已经来了，无人驾驶汽车的量产还会远吗？”</p><p>对百度来说，要加速推进自动驾驶落地，强化对用户教育是必然诉求。除了宣发外，百度还拉拢了奔驰、宝马、福特等诸多传统品牌车企为其站台。</p><p>就此而言，为了推广自动驾驶，百度明显存在过度营销。360创始人周鸿祎就指出：“自动驾驶、无人驾驶还有很多路要走，很多坑要填，不能为了营销误导用户。”令人遗憾的是，恰恰在这点上，智能造车挖的坑更深。</p><p>2</p><p>自动驾驶：经不起追问的噱头</p><p>在自动驾驶问题上栽跟头，偶然中带有必然性。要知道，2016年时特斯拉就曾因此发生过一起事故。当时，有位中国车主在使用特斯拉Autopilot模式驾驶。</p><p>此后，在中国网站上特斯拉就将“自动驾驶”表述修改为“Autopilot自动辅助驾驶”。可见，真正的自动驾驶尚未实现。要解决这个问题，既有纯粹技术性上的掣肘，也包括公共性投入上的限制。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13921110075/0\"/><p>在技术难度维度上，比如是否配备先进的传感器、算法软件等是否运行稳定等都是问题，其中视觉识别灵敏度就比较典型。</p><p>简单来说，调高灵敏度，那么误报就会增多，而这显然会影响用户的使用体验，尤其是驾驶流畅度会大大降低。</p><p>但反之，识别能力降低后，桩桶、隔离墩、低速或静止的厢式车辆等就成为“马路杀手”，这是更为致命的问题。</p><p>这是自动辅助驾驶必须要进行权衡的地方。在这背后，一个实质性描述或者处境是，自动辅助驾驶只能在小范围半封闭的场景下才能顺畅运行。也就是说，要真正实现自动驾驶必须还要有配套的交通设施体系。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13921110073/0\"/><p>具体来讲，在道路上要安装大量摄像头、传感器以及其他设备，最终建成条条智慧路。从成本的角度来说，这是单个企业根本无法承担的，也“无权”承担的。</p><p>因此，当前的自动驾驶都是营销的话术而已。在这个意义上讲，蔚来事件爆发后，理想创始人李想呼吁媒体和行业机构统一自动驾驶的中文名词标准也是一种“营销话术”。</p><p>事实上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>自身也一直在用“自动驾驶”来做卖点。理想这次“纠偏”，只不过是此前车企的消费者教育“太狠”衬托得而已。相比之下，做智能汽车真正需要跟进的硬件，这是根本。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13921110074/0\"/><p>如果从消费者角度看，对自动驾驶有必要进行一次“矫枉过正”。8月18日，中国汽车工业协会技术部部长王耀面对澎湃新闻记者采访时表示对：</p><p>于搭载辅助驾驶功能的车辆，不要过度的宣传，消费者更应该加强认知，不管车辆拥有多么完备的驾驶辅助系统，驾驶员仍要担负起维护车辆行驶安全的责任。</p><p>直白地讲，驾驶员仍是功能操作主体，也是责任主体。</p><p>3</p><p>智能汽车：在技术与人性之间</p><p>拉长时间看，自动驾驶造成的事故并不算少。从技术上讲，它确实存在进步的地方，但从安全性来讲，试验的色彩似乎更为浓厚。而一旦试验出现差错，那么成本可能就是“生命”。</p><p>在这一过程中，除了无处不在的资本外，其实还存在人性本身和技术的较量，甚至后者更重。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13921110065/0\"/><p>当然，激进的车企起到了推波助澜的作用。不止百度，还包括蔚来和特斯拉，乃至全行业。当时，蔚来汽车副总裁沈斐演绎了一场李彦宏版模拟秀。</p><p>2019年，其发<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>告知正坐在ES8里，开着NIOPilot吃<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>外卖，一副不用自己驾驶的悠闲模样。也正是因为这一前因，舆论靶子才指向蔚来高层，要求其为林某去世而负责。</p><p>2015年，马斯克开始不断宣扬特斯拉自动驾驶功能的安全性。</p><p>至于小鹏，则将自己的辅助驾驶系统命名为 “自动驾驶辅助”，而极狐阿尔法S华为HI版描述是“高阶自动驾驶”，上汽和阿里合作的智己L7则表述为“完全自动驾驶辅助”。一句话，都在吃“自动驾驶”的豆腐。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13921110071/0\"/><p>更为夸张地说，在宣传中，自动驾驶时代“到来”的时间点被不断提前，各车企还纷纷拿出时间表。</p><p>理想在赴港上市前，就提出2025年实现L4，即李想说的自动驾驶。对于智能汽车，不仅是车企，也包括百度、华为等科技企业，都在谋求今年秋季开始上市。</p><p>问题在于，自动驾驶经得起考验吗？前述已经指出，现阶段的自动驾驶系统根本不是代替人，而是辅助人来驾驶。症结在于，自动驾驶目的在于辅助人，但却需要人的警惕配合。</p><p>因此，自动驾驶首先就要面临来自人性的考验。从技术开发角度来看，以用户体验为锚点必然会有意无意拉低安全底线；即使安置监测驾驶员装置，但一应违反案例同样不在少数。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13921110061/0\"/><p>因此，自动驾驶背后根本的是技术和人性的较量，资本起到的作用是火上浇油。在这方面，政策的引导相当重要。</p><p>前述已经指出，美国国家公路交通安全管理局开始调查特斯拉的自动辅助驾驶功能，在国内，相关程序也在启动中。</p><p>就在蔚来事件发生同一天，工业和信息化部在网站上公布《关于加强智能网联汽车生产企业及产品准入管理的意见》，开始严格化管控。</p><p>拴住资本的马头，人性和技术的较量可能才会真正转向有利于人的方向。这次有关“自动驾驶”的争议，不止为这些车企，而是为所有人敲响警钟，不能只为利益炒概念，不能对消费者教育缺乏警惕。</p><p>即使在真正实现自动驾驶之后，对自己安全负责的都应是自己，而不是车。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>自动驾驶问题频现！百度的宝，又押错了</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n自动驾驶问题频现！百度的宝，又押错了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-26 11:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021082611450779e7597b&s=b><strong>功夫财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：马良，资深新媒体人8月12日，一辆蔚来ES8发生事故，车主林某不幸身亡；此前，7月30日一辆蔚来EC6也出现事故，车内人员也不幸身亡。这两起事故的疑似原因均指向蔚来的地图领航功能NOP，一种基于高精地图实现路径规划的自动驾驶辅助功能。据悉，林某家属及律师认为蔚来工作人员有私自接触车辆的行为，可能“破坏”证据，因此报案。对此，蔚来方面予以否认。但依照新浪科技讯，该案已获受理，且22日有了新进展...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021082611450779e7597b&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e74fc4bd3f324708cde2effd696613","relate_stocks":{"09888":"百度集团-SW","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021082611450779e7597b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2162069977","content_text":"作者：马良，资深新媒体人8月12日，一辆蔚来ES8发生事故，车主林某不幸身亡；此前，7月30日一辆蔚来EC6也出现事故，车内人员也不幸身亡。这两起事故的疑似原因均指向蔚来的地图领航功能NOP，一种基于高精地图实现路径规划的自动驾驶辅助功能。据悉，林某家属及律师认为蔚来工作人员有私自接触车辆的行为，可能“破坏”证据，因此报案。对此，蔚来方面予以否认。但依照新浪科技讯，该案已获受理，且22日有了新进展。在提供的两份证据中，包括蔚来工作人员承认私自接触车辆的视频和录音。这不仅引发了对蔚来责任的“声讨”，而且相关分析激起了对“自动驾驶”的怀疑。要知道，包括蔚来、特斯拉、小鹏、北汽极狐等车企，都曾把自动驾驶能力作为自家“智能汽车”的核心卖点。此次迫于社会压力，一些车企开始变得“稳健”。其中，理想官网将“高级”二字于“理想AD高级辅助驾驶系统”中删除，小鹏宣发则把“XPILOT 3.5自动驾驶辅助系统”更改为“XPILOT 3.0 智能辅助驾驶系统”。此外，美联社一则报道也值得注意，美国国家公路交通安全管理局开始调查特斯拉的自动辅助驾驶功能。在众多车企纷纷厘清“自动驾驶”概念或“装鸵鸟”时，百度却逆势而动。8月18日，“百度世界大会2021”上，李彦宏不仅邀请撒贝宁同乘Apollo“汽车机器人”，而且指称该车具备“L5级自动驾驶能力、语音人脸的多模交互能力以及机器人自身的学习进化能力。”同时，李彦宏还当场表示：“百度Apollo已经从技术验证阶段进入到规模化商业运营阶段。”问题在于，百度的“汽车机器人”真具备“自动驾驶”能力吗？当前，蔚来卷进责任纠纷，特斯拉遭遇官方调查，业界人士展开激烈辨析，百度到底是“死鸭子嘴硬”“赚黑心钱”还是“胸有成竹”呢？不管怎样，百度没有反省。从行业来看，一旦自动驾驶这一卖点被戳破，那么智能汽车被鼓吹起来的高市值还能维持吗？1估值逻辑：百度在悄悄转变近年来百度不断加码研发，重点方向之一就是自动驾驶。为此，百度不仅规划了共享无人车、ASD（Apollo自动驾驶）、造车三个商业化路径，而且愿景更是成为自动驾驶解决方案提供商。但是，不管是从营收结构还是大众印象看，都表明百度主要还是一家“广告公司”。尽管如此，百度变革估值逻辑的意图却显露无疑，尤其值得注意的是，这一变革确实在悄悄转变。百度在转型成为科技型互联网企业的路上，在自动驾驶领域的狂飙猛进称得上是一个典型表现。2013年，百度开启无人车项目；2015年，自动驾驶事业部成立。当时，高级副总裁王劲任该事业部总经理，公开宣称要促进自动驾驶汽车的“技术化、产品化、商业化”。为此，2015年起百度每年要烧掉上百亿元，其中仅2020年的研发投入就超过了200亿元。也因此，百度的估值逻辑开始正式转变。2013年，百度每股80美元；2015年，最低每股仍在百美元区间；等到2016年，已基本稳定在150美元以上；特别地，见张趋势非常显眼。看到估值的变化，被激励的李彦宏开始亲自下场为自动驾驶代言。2017年7月，李彦宏在百度AI开发者大会上进行视频直播，展示了自己乘坐公司研发的无人驾驶汽车的情景。在视频中，驾驶座空着，而李彦宏则坐在副驾驶座位上，称“车处在自动驾驶的状态。”尽管这次李彦宏被交警开了罚单，但百度也并没有反省，而是趁机宣发，李彦宏更是公开表示，“如果无人驾驶的罚单已经来了，无人驾驶汽车的量产还会远吗？”对百度来说，要加速推进自动驾驶落地，强化对用户教育是必然诉求。除了宣发外，百度还拉拢了奔驰、宝马、福特等诸多传统品牌车企为其站台。就此而言，为了推广自动驾驶，百度明显存在过度营销。360创始人周鸿祎就指出：“自动驾驶、无人驾驶还有很多路要走，很多坑要填，不能为了营销误导用户。”令人遗憾的是，恰恰在这点上，智能造车挖的坑更深。2自动驾驶：经不起追问的噱头在自动驾驶问题上栽跟头，偶然中带有必然性。要知道，2016年时特斯拉就曾因此发生过一起事故。当时，有位中国车主在使用特斯拉Autopilot模式驾驶。此后，在中国网站上特斯拉就将“自动驾驶”表述修改为“Autopilot自动辅助驾驶”。可见，真正的自动驾驶尚未实现。要解决这个问题，既有纯粹技术性上的掣肘，也包括公共性投入上的限制。在技术难度维度上，比如是否配备先进的传感器、算法软件等是否运行稳定等都是问题，其中视觉识别灵敏度就比较典型。简单来说，调高灵敏度，那么误报就会增多，而这显然会影响用户的使用体验，尤其是驾驶流畅度会大大降低。但反之，识别能力降低后，桩桶、隔离墩、低速或静止的厢式车辆等就成为“马路杀手”，这是更为致命的问题。这是自动辅助驾驶必须要进行权衡的地方。在这背后，一个实质性描述或者处境是，自动辅助驾驶只能在小范围半封闭的场景下才能顺畅运行。也就是说，要真正实现自动驾驶必须还要有配套的交通设施体系。具体来讲，在道路上要安装大量摄像头、传感器以及其他设备，最终建成条条智慧路。从成本的角度来说，这是单个企业根本无法承担的，也“无权”承担的。因此，当前的自动驾驶都是营销的话术而已。在这个意义上讲，蔚来事件爆发后，理想创始人李想呼吁媒体和行业机构统一自动驾驶的中文名词标准也是一种“营销话术”。事实上，理想汽车自身也一直在用“自动驾驶”来做卖点。理想这次“纠偏”，只不过是此前车企的消费者教育“太狠”衬托得而已。相比之下，做智能汽车真正需要跟进的硬件，这是根本。如果从消费者角度看，对自动驾驶有必要进行一次“矫枉过正”。8月18日，中国汽车工业协会技术部部长王耀面对澎湃新闻记者采访时表示对：于搭载辅助驾驶功能的车辆，不要过度的宣传，消费者更应该加强认知，不管车辆拥有多么完备的驾驶辅助系统，驾驶员仍要担负起维护车辆行驶安全的责任。直白地讲，驾驶员仍是功能操作主体，也是责任主体。3智能汽车：在技术与人性之间拉长时间看，自动驾驶造成的事故并不算少。从技术上讲，它确实存在进步的地方，但从安全性来讲，试验的色彩似乎更为浓厚。而一旦试验出现差错，那么成本可能就是“生命”。在这一过程中，除了无处不在的资本外，其实还存在人性本身和技术的较量，甚至后者更重。当然，激进的车企起到了推波助澜的作用。不止百度，还包括蔚来和特斯拉，乃至全行业。当时，蔚来汽车副总裁沈斐演绎了一场李彦宏版模拟秀。2019年，其发微博告知正坐在ES8里，开着NIOPilot吃星巴克外卖，一副不用自己驾驶的悠闲模样。也正是因为这一前因，舆论靶子才指向蔚来高层，要求其为林某去世而负责。2015年，马斯克开始不断宣扬特斯拉自动驾驶功能的安全性。至于小鹏，则将自己的辅助驾驶系统命名为 “自动驾驶辅助”，而极狐阿尔法S华为HI版描述是“高阶自动驾驶”，上汽和阿里合作的智己L7则表述为“完全自动驾驶辅助”。一句话，都在吃“自动驾驶”的豆腐。更为夸张地说，在宣传中，自动驾驶时代“到来”的时间点被不断提前，各车企还纷纷拿出时间表。理想在赴港上市前，就提出2025年实现L4，即李想说的自动驾驶。对于智能汽车，不仅是车企，也包括百度、华为等科技企业，都在谋求今年秋季开始上市。问题在于，自动驾驶经得起考验吗？前述已经指出，现阶段的自动驾驶系统根本不是代替人，而是辅助人来驾驶。症结在于，自动驾驶目的在于辅助人，但却需要人的警惕配合。因此，自动驾驶首先就要面临来自人性的考验。从技术开发角度来看，以用户体验为锚点必然会有意无意拉低安全底线；即使安置监测驾驶员装置，但一应违反案例同样不在少数。因此，自动驾驶背后根本的是技术和人性的较量，资本起到的作用是火上浇油。在这方面，政策的引导相当重要。前述已经指出，美国国家公路交通安全管理局开始调查特斯拉的自动辅助驾驶功能，在国内，相关程序也在启动中。就在蔚来事件发生同一天，工业和信息化部在网站上公布《关于加强智能网联汽车生产企业及产品准入管理的意见》，开始严格化管控。拴住资本的马头，人性和技术的较量可能才会真正转向有利于人的方向。这次有关“自动驾驶”的争议，不止为这些车企，而是为所有人敲响警钟，不能只为利益炒概念，不能对消费者教育缺乏警惕。即使在真正实现自动驾驶之后，对自己安全负责的都应是自己，而不是车。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166479308,"gmtCreate":1624023961504,"gmtModify":1624023961504,"author":{"id":"3460013879498149","authorId":"3460013879498149","name":"Pconcool","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3460013879498149","authorIdStr":"3460013879498149"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"为什么百度如此不受待见，炒股不就是炒预期吗","listText":"为什么百度如此不受待见，炒股不就是炒预期吗","text":"为什么百度如此不受待见，炒股不就是炒预期吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166479308","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":194370797,"gmtCreate":1621345658119,"gmtModify":1621345658119,"author":{"id":"3460013879498149","authorId":"3460013879498149","name":"Pconcool","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3460013879498149","authorIdStr":"3460013879498149"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>阿里市值低于特斯拉，搞笑","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$阿里市值低于特斯拉，搞笑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339851963","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3461710654360661","authorId":"3461710654360661","name":"丐版巴菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f151ff098e415145b420b2c9d1a5c80","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3461710654360661","authorIdStr":"3461710654360661"},"content":"还真车低估电车。开电车的成本只有每公里1-2毛，燃油车最省油也要5-6毛/公里，这将极大降低整个社会运输成本。还有未来的无人驾驶，大有前途","text":"还真车低估电车。开电车的成本只有每公里1-2毛，燃油车最省油也要5-6毛/公里，这将极大降低整个社会运输成本。还有未来的无人驾驶，大有前途","html":"还真车低估电车。开电车的成本只有每公里1-2毛，燃油车最省油也要5-6毛/公里，这将极大降低整个社会运输成本。还有未来的无人驾驶，大有前途"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398336018,"gmtCreate":1606827268334,"gmtModify":1703844701114,"author":{"id":"3460013879498149","authorId":"3460013879498149","name":"Pconcool","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3460013879498149","authorIdStr":"3460013879498149"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>历史上最大的泡沫","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>历史上最大的泡沫","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$历史上最大的泡沫","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398336018","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3496734756675762","authorId":"3496734756675762","name":"哈喽阿特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be14702a2bfc62d2700814a4794683b7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3496734756675762","authorIdStr":"3496734756675762"},"content":"拆股前300就有人这么喊了，喊了两年，把股价喊到了3000","text":"拆股前300就有人这么喊了，喊了两年，把股价喊到了3000","html":"拆股前300就有人这么喊了，喊了两年，把股价喊到了3000"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":399049860,"gmtCreate":1605885949250,"gmtModify":1703840333830,"author":{"id":"3460013879498149","authorId":"3460013879498149","name":"Pconcool","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3460013879498149","authorIdStr":"3460013879498149"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"就这水平，拉黑！","listText":"就这水平，拉黑！","text":"就这水平，拉黑！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399049860","repostId":"1138806866","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1138806866","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"由前企鹅、阿里、京东战略分析师打造。「东哥解读电商」专注泛电商领域专业深度解读，已有10万电商人投资人关注；旗下「京腾汇」最大的京东、企鹅系创业交流合作社群，汇聚数十位京腾系高管，数十位京腾系投资人，数百家优秀创业公司，诚邀京腾系创业者加入","home_visible":1,"media_name":"东哥解读电商","id":"85","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f094169fff743f5a260999cbbecf739"},"pubTimestamp":1605865111,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138806866?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-20 17:38","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"阿里跌倒，能喂饱京东拼多多吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138806866","media":"东哥解读电商","summary":"随着蚂蚁金服IPO被强行暂停，阿里巴巴大势已去！\n“和珅倒，嘉庆饱。”\n\n清乾隆时期的和珅历来被认为是中国古代最大的贪官，他利用权势广泛纳财，最后被嘉庆皇帝一举收缴。没收和珅家产折合白银8亿多两，相当","content":"<p>随着蚂蚁金服IPO被强行暂停，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>大势已去！</p>\n<p>“和珅倒，嘉庆饱。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9430a53ec6eed448b41049a388c3a5a\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"494\"></p>\n<p>清乾隆时期的和珅历来被认为是中国古代最大的贪官，他利用权势广泛纳财，最后被嘉庆皇帝一举收缴。没收和珅家产折合白银8亿多两，相当于清朝十五年的税收，而和珅满打满算不过做官25年，怪不得嘉庆要杀他。当然和珅的家产数量被夸大了，但扳倒和珅，的确是肥了嘉庆。</p>\n<p>2020年，可以说是阿里最倒霉的一年，公关事故不断。蒋凡出轨，闲鱼负责人陈镭(花名“闻仲”)或因桃色事件离职，到马云上海滩讲话惹祸，蚂蚁金服IPO被紧急叫停。</p>\n<p><b>►阿里帝国，有一种大势已去的感觉！</b></p>\n<p>屋漏偏逢连夜雨 ，船迟又遇打头风。如果你认为这就是全部，那就大错特错了。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264c1390786a0fd038a3cbcd6bb17916\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>2020年，除了阿里股价没有怎么涨，阿里的主要竞争对手都大涨了。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>大涨300%，美团大涨208.3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>大涨161.4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>大涨62.5%，即使是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>也大涨59.6%。</p>\n<p>而阿里巴巴今年以来仅录得23%的涨幅，作为中国电商最优秀的代表，即使在全世界来看，都属于在疫情中表现最差的大型互联网科技公司之一。</p>\n<p>大的趋势是，在疫情冲击中只有中国控制住了疫情，是全球唯一保持正增长的经济体。所以资本追逐中国市场，尤其是以科技为主的中概股，是最主要的投资标的之一。</p>\n<p>今年海量资本涌入中概股，大幅推高了中概股股价。阿里本应该是最大的受益公司，但表现却远弱于其它公司。<b>很显然资本市场正在把原本要投给阿里的钱，都分给了它的主要竞争对手。阿里跌倒，京东美团拼多多吃饱！</b></p>\n<p>而这种趋势并非发生在2020年，其实在2019年就已经开始了。在2019年，京东、拼多多和美团的股价表现就远好于阿里巴巴。所以不能简单的把京东、拼多多和美团的表现优异，全部归结于阿里今年遭遇的一系列公关危机。</p>\n<p><b>实际上，业务逆转的趋势早已发生了好几年，资本市场的反应已经整整晚了三年时间。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a7d162eeb06e92dfbb6201abbdb28d5\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"455\"></p>\n<p>5年前阿里巴巴独占中国电商80%份额，而到2019年份额跌落至64%，不出意外的话，今年市场份额会低于60%。</p>\n<p>我简单的总结这个趋势是，“中国电商市场的去阿里垄断化趋势”</p>\n<p>什么生意是最好的生意？垄断的生意就是好生意。</p>\n<p>阿里去垄断化的过程，就是去话语权的过程，去超额利润的过程。</p>\n<p>很多人问我怎么看阿里巴巴？因为我写了很多文章，长期以来我给人的印象就是不看好阿里，唱衰阿里。我说全网都在写阿里牛逼，我应该是少数写阿里有不足的人。且你们这么说太偏见了，我从来没有说阿里不行，或者说阿里很牛逼才有今天的江湖地位。但阿里牛逼，不影响其它人牛逼。阿里所面临的挑战，可以用一句俗语比喻，<b>“双拳难敌四手”</b>。</p>\n<p>今日阿里所面临的竞争对手，已经不再是那些没什么积累的草根玩家了。不是阿里不行了，而是竞争对手越来越强了。</p>\n<p>过去的一周，中概股陆续发布了最新财报。拼多多Q3活跃买家数达到7.31亿（阿里7.57亿活跃用户），单季度劲增4810万，这已经是拼多多连续6个季度单季度新增用户超过4000万。如果不出意外的话，2020年四季度，拼多多的买家数就会反超阿里巴巴，成为中国用户量最多的电商平台。</p>\n<p>拼多多日常订单已接近1亿，考虑到10月份全中国日均快递单量也就2.65亿件，拼多多日均订单或已超过淘宝（不含天猫）。</p>\n<p>淘宝是整个阿里电商的根基，淘宝若打不过拼多多，那么阿里的电商帝国，或将走向不可逆的衰落。</p>\n<p><b>如果拼多多能够彻底打败淘宝，替代淘宝在中国电商的江湖位子。那么拼多多的市值或有可能在现有基础上再翻一倍，达到近4000亿美金。</b></p>\n<p><b>►阿里跌倒，京东拼多多吃饱？</b></p>\n<p>阿里巴巴，第三季度年度活跃消费者达7.57亿，同比增长仅9%，单季增加1500万，远低于拼多多新增的近5000万用户。</p>\n<p>唯品会，第三季度年度活跃用户人数为4340万人，与去年同期的3200万人相比增长36%。</p>\n<p>京东，第三季度年度活跃用户人数为4.416亿人，与去年同期的3.344亿人相比增长32%。</p>\n<p>虽然竞争对手表现都更好，但不管怎么样，阿里/淘宝的用户还在增长。我相信阿里用户还会继续增长，但实际上用户在淘宝上花的时间会越来越少，花的钱越来越少，而不是越来越多。</p>\n<p>除了京东、拼多多和唯品会，还有更多的竞争对手分食电商市场，字节跳动的抖音和快手直播电商。两家在直播电商市场都有着雄心勃勃的目标和计划，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>最近都蠢蠢欲动了。</p>\n<p>当然竞争是相互的，不只是阿里一家难过，而是整个市场的竞争变得更加复杂了。曾经的淘宝是流量黑洞，只进不出。淘宝十几年来构建的护城河，似乎并没有那么牢靠。淘宝的货架化，没有独特的用户体验，导致用户不在忠诚于淘宝，转而投向了更多的竞争对手平台。</p>\n<p>作为某对冲基金长期电商顾问之一，<b>去年1月曾建议大力买入拼多多和美团，卖出阿里，主要逻辑之一就是中国电商已经进入了存量竞争时代。</b>存量市场竞争的一个鲜明特征就是，此消彼长。如果拼多多持续大涨，必定有一方在丢掉市场。不要说缓慢增长，甚至有可能负增长。<b>拼多多每一笔增长的订单，就是淘宝丢掉的订单。</b></p>\n<p>所以今年阿里终于完全醒悟过来，开始猛推淘宝特价，就是在狙击拼多多。公关上也动作很多，依然还是想证明拼多多对淘宝没有影响，阿里无所畏惧，可以轻松应对。</p>\n<p>阿里有没有业务亮点？当然有很多，阿里云、盒马鲜生新零售，阿里游戏，钉钉都可圈可点。但这些创新业务，挡不住拼多多，更撑不起阿里的电商帝国大厦。</p>\n<p>阿里帝国，是不是就大势已去？</p>\n<p>你想多了，阿里毕竟是单季度营收1550.59亿元，净利润265.24亿元的巨头。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里跌倒，能喂饱京东拼多多吗？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里跌倒，能喂饱京东拼多多吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/85\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f094169fff743f5a260999cbbecf739);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">东哥解读电商 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-11-20 17:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>随着蚂蚁金服IPO被强行暂停，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>大势已去！</p>\n<p>“和珅倒，嘉庆饱。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9430a53ec6eed448b41049a388c3a5a\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"494\"></p>\n<p>清乾隆时期的和珅历来被认为是中国古代最大的贪官，他利用权势广泛纳财，最后被嘉庆皇帝一举收缴。没收和珅家产折合白银8亿多两，相当于清朝十五年的税收，而和珅满打满算不过做官25年，怪不得嘉庆要杀他。当然和珅的家产数量被夸大了，但扳倒和珅，的确是肥了嘉庆。</p>\n<p>2020年，可以说是阿里最倒霉的一年，公关事故不断。蒋凡出轨，闲鱼负责人陈镭(花名“闻仲”)或因桃色事件离职，到马云上海滩讲话惹祸，蚂蚁金服IPO被紧急叫停。</p>\n<p><b>►阿里帝国，有一种大势已去的感觉！</b></p>\n<p>屋漏偏逢连夜雨 ，船迟又遇打头风。如果你认为这就是全部，那就大错特错了。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264c1390786a0fd038a3cbcd6bb17916\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>2020年，除了阿里股价没有怎么涨，阿里的主要竞争对手都大涨了。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>大涨300%，美团大涨208.3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>大涨161.4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>大涨62.5%，即使是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>也大涨59.6%。</p>\n<p>而阿里巴巴今年以来仅录得23%的涨幅，作为中国电商最优秀的代表，即使在全世界来看，都属于在疫情中表现最差的大型互联网科技公司之一。</p>\n<p>大的趋势是，在疫情冲击中只有中国控制住了疫情，是全球唯一保持正增长的经济体。所以资本追逐中国市场，尤其是以科技为主的中概股，是最主要的投资标的之一。</p>\n<p>今年海量资本涌入中概股，大幅推高了中概股股价。阿里本应该是最大的受益公司，但表现却远弱于其它公司。<b>很显然资本市场正在把原本要投给阿里的钱，都分给了它的主要竞争对手。阿里跌倒，京东美团拼多多吃饱！</b></p>\n<p>而这种趋势并非发生在2020年，其实在2019年就已经开始了。在2019年，京东、拼多多和美团的股价表现就远好于阿里巴巴。所以不能简单的把京东、拼多多和美团的表现优异，全部归结于阿里今年遭遇的一系列公关危机。</p>\n<p><b>实际上，业务逆转的趋势早已发生了好几年，资本市场的反应已经整整晚了三年时间。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a7d162eeb06e92dfbb6201abbdb28d5\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"455\"></p>\n<p>5年前阿里巴巴独占中国电商80%份额，而到2019年份额跌落至64%，不出意外的话，今年市场份额会低于60%。</p>\n<p>我简单的总结这个趋势是，“中国电商市场的去阿里垄断化趋势”</p>\n<p>什么生意是最好的生意？垄断的生意就是好生意。</p>\n<p>阿里去垄断化的过程，就是去话语权的过程，去超额利润的过程。</p>\n<p>很多人问我怎么看阿里巴巴？因为我写了很多文章，长期以来我给人的印象就是不看好阿里，唱衰阿里。我说全网都在写阿里牛逼，我应该是少数写阿里有不足的人。且你们这么说太偏见了，我从来没有说阿里不行，或者说阿里很牛逼才有今天的江湖地位。但阿里牛逼，不影响其它人牛逼。阿里所面临的挑战，可以用一句俗语比喻，<b>“双拳难敌四手”</b>。</p>\n<p>今日阿里所面临的竞争对手，已经不再是那些没什么积累的草根玩家了。不是阿里不行了，而是竞争对手越来越强了。</p>\n<p>过去的一周，中概股陆续发布了最新财报。拼多多Q3活跃买家数达到7.31亿（阿里7.57亿活跃用户），单季度劲增4810万，这已经是拼多多连续6个季度单季度新增用户超过4000万。如果不出意外的话，2020年四季度，拼多多的买家数就会反超阿里巴巴，成为中国用户量最多的电商平台。</p>\n<p>拼多多日常订单已接近1亿，考虑到10月份全中国日均快递单量也就2.65亿件，拼多多日均订单或已超过淘宝（不含天猫）。</p>\n<p>淘宝是整个阿里电商的根基，淘宝若打不过拼多多，那么阿里的电商帝国，或将走向不可逆的衰落。</p>\n<p><b>如果拼多多能够彻底打败淘宝，替代淘宝在中国电商的江湖位子。那么拼多多的市值或有可能在现有基础上再翻一倍，达到近4000亿美金。</b></p>\n<p><b>►阿里跌倒，京东拼多多吃饱？</b></p>\n<p>阿里巴巴，第三季度年度活跃消费者达7.57亿，同比增长仅9%，单季增加1500万，远低于拼多多新增的近5000万用户。</p>\n<p>唯品会，第三季度年度活跃用户人数为4340万人，与去年同期的3200万人相比增长36%。</p>\n<p>京东，第三季度年度活跃用户人数为4.416亿人，与去年同期的3.344亿人相比增长32%。</p>\n<p>虽然竞争对手表现都更好，但不管怎么样，阿里/淘宝的用户还在增长。我相信阿里用户还会继续增长，但实际上用户在淘宝上花的时间会越来越少，花的钱越来越少，而不是越来越多。</p>\n<p>除了京东、拼多多和唯品会，还有更多的竞争对手分食电商市场，字节跳动的抖音和快手直播电商。两家在直播电商市场都有着雄心勃勃的目标和计划，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>最近都蠢蠢欲动了。</p>\n<p>当然竞争是相互的，不只是阿里一家难过，而是整个市场的竞争变得更加复杂了。曾经的淘宝是流量黑洞，只进不出。淘宝十几年来构建的护城河，似乎并没有那么牢靠。淘宝的货架化，没有独特的用户体验，导致用户不在忠诚于淘宝，转而投向了更多的竞争对手平台。</p>\n<p>作为某对冲基金长期电商顾问之一，<b>去年1月曾建议大力买入拼多多和美团，卖出阿里，主要逻辑之一就是中国电商已经进入了存量竞争时代。</b>存量市场竞争的一个鲜明特征就是，此消彼长。如果拼多多持续大涨，必定有一方在丢掉市场。不要说缓慢增长，甚至有可能负增长。<b>拼多多每一笔增长的订单，就是淘宝丢掉的订单。</b></p>\n<p>所以今年阿里终于完全醒悟过来，开始猛推淘宝特价，就是在狙击拼多多。公关上也动作很多，依然还是想证明拼多多对淘宝没有影响，阿里无所畏惧，可以轻松应对。</p>\n<p>阿里有没有业务亮点？当然有很多，阿里云、盒马鲜生新零售，阿里游戏，钉钉都可圈可点。但这些创新业务，挡不住拼多多，更撑不起阿里的电商帝国大厦。</p>\n<p>阿里帝国，是不是就大势已去？</p>\n<p>你想多了，阿里毕竟是单季度营收1550.59亿元，净利润265.24亿元的巨头。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f27817aeaac30a99cdf8e68b74c00c3f","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138806866","content_text":"随着蚂蚁金服IPO被强行暂停，阿里巴巴大势已去！\n“和珅倒，嘉庆饱。”\n\n清乾隆时期的和珅历来被认为是中国古代最大的贪官，他利用权势广泛纳财，最后被嘉庆皇帝一举收缴。没收和珅家产折合白银8亿多两，相当于清朝十五年的税收，而和珅满打满算不过做官25年，怪不得嘉庆要杀他。当然和珅的家产数量被夸大了，但扳倒和珅，的确是肥了嘉庆。\n2020年，可以说是阿里最倒霉的一年，公关事故不断。蒋凡出轨，闲鱼负责人陈镭(花名“闻仲”)或因桃色事件离职，到马云上海滩讲话惹祸，蚂蚁金服IPO被紧急叫停。\n►阿里帝国，有一种大势已去的感觉！\n屋漏偏逢连夜雨 ，船迟又遇打头风。如果你认为这就是全部，那就大错特错了。\n\n2020年，除了阿里股价没有怎么涨，阿里的主要竞争对手都大涨了。\n拼多多大涨300%，美团大涨208.3%，京东大涨161.4%，唯品会大涨62.5%，即使是腾讯也大涨59.6%。\n而阿里巴巴今年以来仅录得23%的涨幅，作为中国电商最优秀的代表，即使在全世界来看，都属于在疫情中表现最差的大型互联网科技公司之一。\n大的趋势是，在疫情冲击中只有中国控制住了疫情，是全球唯一保持正增长的经济体。所以资本追逐中国市场，尤其是以科技为主的中概股，是最主要的投资标的之一。\n今年海量资本涌入中概股，大幅推高了中概股股价。阿里本应该是最大的受益公司，但表现却远弱于其它公司。很显然资本市场正在把原本要投给阿里的钱，都分给了它的主要竞争对手。阿里跌倒，京东美团拼多多吃饱！\n而这种趋势并非发生在2020年，其实在2019年就已经开始了。在2019年，京东、拼多多和美团的股价表现就远好于阿里巴巴。所以不能简单的把京东、拼多多和美团的表现优异，全部归结于阿里今年遭遇的一系列公关危机。\n实际上，业务逆转的趋势早已发生了好几年，资本市场的反应已经整整晚了三年时间。\n\n5年前阿里巴巴独占中国电商80%份额，而到2019年份额跌落至64%，不出意外的话，今年市场份额会低于60%。\n我简单的总结这个趋势是，“中国电商市场的去阿里垄断化趋势”\n什么生意是最好的生意？垄断的生意就是好生意。\n阿里去垄断化的过程，就是去话语权的过程，去超额利润的过程。\n很多人问我怎么看阿里巴巴？因为我写了很多文章，长期以来我给人的印象就是不看好阿里，唱衰阿里。我说全网都在写阿里牛逼，我应该是少数写阿里有不足的人。且你们这么说太偏见了，我从来没有说阿里不行，或者说阿里很牛逼才有今天的江湖地位。但阿里牛逼，不影响其它人牛逼。阿里所面临的挑战，可以用一句俗语比喻，“双拳难敌四手”。\n今日阿里所面临的竞争对手，已经不再是那些没什么积累的草根玩家了。不是阿里不行了，而是竞争对手越来越强了。\n过去的一周，中概股陆续发布了最新财报。拼多多Q3活跃买家数达到7.31亿（阿里7.57亿活跃用户），单季度劲增4810万，这已经是拼多多连续6个季度单季度新增用户超过4000万。如果不出意外的话，2020年四季度，拼多多的买家数就会反超阿里巴巴，成为中国用户量最多的电商平台。\n拼多多日常订单已接近1亿，考虑到10月份全中国日均快递单量也就2.65亿件，拼多多日均订单或已超过淘宝（不含天猫）。\n淘宝是整个阿里电商的根基，淘宝若打不过拼多多，那么阿里的电商帝国，或将走向不可逆的衰落。\n如果拼多多能够彻底打败淘宝，替代淘宝在中国电商的江湖位子。那么拼多多的市值或有可能在现有基础上再翻一倍，达到近4000亿美金。\n►阿里跌倒，京东拼多多吃饱？\n阿里巴巴，第三季度年度活跃消费者达7.57亿，同比增长仅9%，单季增加1500万，远低于拼多多新增的近5000万用户。\n唯品会，第三季度年度活跃用户人数为4340万人，与去年同期的3200万人相比增长36%。\n京东，第三季度年度活跃用户人数为4.416亿人，与去年同期的3.344亿人相比增长32%。\n虽然竞争对手表现都更好，但不管怎么样，阿里/淘宝的用户还在增长。我相信阿里用户还会继续增长，但实际上用户在淘宝上花的时间会越来越少，花的钱越来越少，而不是越来越多。\n除了京东、拼多多和唯品会，还有更多的竞争对手分食电商市场，字节跳动的抖音和快手直播电商。两家在直播电商市场都有着雄心勃勃的目标和计划，百度最近都蠢蠢欲动了。\n当然竞争是相互的，不只是阿里一家难过，而是整个市场的竞争变得更加复杂了。曾经的淘宝是流量黑洞，只进不出。淘宝十几年来构建的护城河，似乎并没有那么牢靠。淘宝的货架化，没有独特的用户体验，导致用户不在忠诚于淘宝，转而投向了更多的竞争对手平台。\n作为某对冲基金长期电商顾问之一，去年1月曾建议大力买入拼多多和美团，卖出阿里，主要逻辑之一就是中国电商已经进入了存量竞争时代。存量市场竞争的一个鲜明特征就是，此消彼长。如果拼多多持续大涨，必定有一方在丢掉市场。不要说缓慢增长，甚至有可能负增长。拼多多每一笔增长的订单，就是淘宝丢掉的订单。\n所以今年阿里终于完全醒悟过来，开始猛推淘宝特价，就是在狙击拼多多。公关上也动作很多，依然还是想证明拼多多对淘宝没有影响，阿里无所畏惧，可以轻松应对。\n阿里有没有业务亮点？当然有很多，阿里云、盒马鲜生新零售，阿里游戏，钉钉都可圈可点。但这些创新业务，挡不住拼多多，更撑不起阿里的电商帝国大厦。\n阿里帝国，是不是就大势已去？\n你想多了，阿里毕竟是单季度营收1550.59亿元，净利润265.24亿元的巨头。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":390375859,"gmtCreate":1605717234271,"gmtModify":1703839248548,"author":{"id":"3460013879498149","authorId":"3460013879498149","name":"Pconcool","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3460013879498149","authorIdStr":"3460013879498149"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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