干杯朋友的个人主页 - 老虎社区

干杯朋友

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2020-05-21

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$绝佳补票机会

2020-12-14

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$继续冲！90近在眼前

2020-07-20

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$真的恶心

2020-12-14

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$新的游戏代理很有想象力

2020-12-14

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$是真的牛

2020-07-22

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$很弱的公司，建议清仓

2020-07-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$大盘来下来了，别装了

2020-05-27

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$技术面上看，暂时高估了。回避两天30左右再接回来

2020-04-08

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$最近涨这么多，有点危险，我先溜了

2020-05-04

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$逆天了，朋友圈刷屏，排面

2020-05-04

后浪来兮，你来了吗

2020-02-20

辛苦作者，写的很好！

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-02-04

$特斯拉(TSLA)$流浪地球，相信马一龙

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>最近涨这么多，有点危险，我先溜了","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$最近涨这么多，有点危险，我先溜了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921493408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":980929037,"gmtCreate":1582171585029,"gmtModify":1704345979299,"author":{"id":"3458692978440262","authorId":"3458692978440262","name":"干杯朋友","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"辛苦作者，写的很好！","listText":"辛苦作者，写的很好！","text":"辛苦作者，写的很好！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/980929037","repostId":"1124013022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124013022","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"民间投资共享平台——汇集投资高手，发现投资好点子。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"阿尔法工场研究院","id":"55","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df70e92a2d64be896797ea06b5e676a"},"pubTimestamp":1582158228,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124013022?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-02-20 08:23","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"大数据中的商业百态：九毛九受打击最严重，B站流量涨30%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124013022","media":"阿尔法工场研究院","summary":"导语：盘点新冠病毒对各大行业的经济影响。\n2020年，中国以举国之力紧张焦灼地抗击疫情。同时，疫情对经济的影响更是不可小觑。笔者一直坚持客观立场，致力于高效地为市场提供经济运行的真实面貌。\n当下，各种","content":"<p><i><b>导语：盘点新冠病毒对各大行业的经济影响。</b></i></p>\n<p><span>2020年，中国以举国之力紧张焦灼地抗击疫情。同时，疫情对经济的影响更是不可小觑。笔者一直坚持客观立场，致力于高效地为市场提供经济运行的真实面貌。</span></p>\n<p><span>当下，各种信息尤其纷乱爆炸：谣言与真相交错，且大众对真相和事实的渴求十分强烈，我们也愈发感受到肩上的重担。</span></p>\n<p><span>在过去的两周时间里，笔者迅速组织研发力量，对各行各业展开大数据实时跟踪，这里特与大家分享报告的精选内容。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>餐饮行业</span></b></p>\n<p><span>笔者持续跟踪官方公布的疫情动态，并按照确诊人数挑选了全国前20大重点受灾城市。这些城市既包含湖北的大多数城市，也包含北上广深等一线城市，占全国确诊病例近77%。</span></p>\n<p><span>同时，我们也将受灾城市与各大餐饮品牌的全国分布情况进行了精准匹配。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85569defd4fca34853d99c934afdfdf2\"></p>\n<p><span>可以看到，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">九毛九</a>（HK:09922）受到的潜在打击最大，有60%的旗下门店（包含太二酸菜鱼）处在疫情重灾区。</span></p>\n<p><span>相对而言，肯德基（YUMC.US）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">海底捞</a>（HK:06862）仅分别有28%和33%的门店位于重灾区。</span></p>\n<p><span>如果全国疫情在未来持续分化、重灾区继续保持高压防控态势，而灾情较轻的地区逐渐恢复正常的生产经营活动，那不同餐饮企业的复苏轨迹也可能产生分化。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff8f55e36bf1cf51dcdbd72f1715c26\"></p>\n<p><span>虽然<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>（NASDAQ:LK）官方并没有披露门店运营数据，但我们能清晰地看到，截止2月7日（上周五），全国共有4494家瑞幸门店（含小鹿茶）处于关门状态。全国关店率达到94%，湖北省关店率达到100%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cefe37d42644abdb372744fd5d5f931a\"></p>\n<p><span>这种严峻情势从2月10日起得到一定缓解，全国关店率小幅下降到87%，其中北京关店率从上周五的91%下降到60%，上海下降到71%。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>酒旅行业</span></b></p>\n<p><span>疫情对旅游行业的打击是显而易见的。笔者持续跟踪全国航班、各<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00045\">大酒店</a>集团入住率等日颗粒度数据。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1747f899312ea5f138f22cee1b783617\"></p>\n<p><span>我们看到，截止1月31日，无论是全国范围内，还是北京、上海这些重点机场，出境航班满座率都大跌至50%水平，且还在持续走低。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41442c1a5535a604fa3dcd416ec74454\"></p>\n<p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">华住</a>集团（NASDAQ:HTHT）旗下酒店也开始大规模关店，截止1月31日关店比率达到50%（红线）。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bda9e693ccd0f3a65593e284aff7d99\"></p>\n<p><span>华住酒店在湖北、陕西、甘肃、河南、山东、浙江等省份的关店情况尤其严重（红色），而华住在全国范围内酒店入住率也仅处在20%-40%的水平（灰线）。相比而言，华住集团在2019年1季度的整体入住率高达81%。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>互娱行业</span></b></p>\n<p><span>突如其来的疫情也催生了新的行业机会。生活还要继续，足不出户也依然要活得精彩。市场普遍认为，这次疫情为在线娱乐、在线教育、在线办公等行业带来新的发展机会。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/165fae56b22dfdd74a31446a356e345f\"></p>\n<p><span>笔者发现，随着全国学校整体延迟开学，广受年轻人欢迎的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>（NASDAQ:BILI）在1月份取得了30%以上的观看数和活跃up主数的增长。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bebe89e325975f6782dbf85ac21531f\"></p>\n<p><span>整体来看，生活类和游戏类在1月份的环比增长最大。我们也观察到，B站在生活类视频中新添加了“抗击肺炎”主题，该类主题的视频的观看量占到了全站观看量的5%。如果剔除“抗击肺炎”主题的影响，增长最大的类别是游戏。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>O2O及餐饮行业</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/074eb6f4f6aa52a132c5a469da5d7f00\"></p>\n<p><span>根据笔者的数据监测，2月上旬约有83%的美团外卖（HK:03690）商家处在关闭的状态。该数据也能一定程度上反映全国餐饮行业整体的关店情况。</span></p>\n<p><span>受打击最大的省份包括湖北、陕西、河南、甘肃和江西。在这些省份里，超过90%的餐馆处于停业状态。</span></p>\n<p><span>北京、广东、上海的情况相对较好，均有30%以上的门店依然开放。</span></p>\n<p><span>对于肯德基（NYSE:YUMC）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">麦当劳</a>（NYSE:MCD）这些国际快餐品牌来说，虽然在湖北省关店率达到100%，但在全国其他地方的营业状况都显著好于行业平均水平。</span></p>\n<p><span>例如在北京，肯德基和麦当劳的关店率分别只有5%和6%，显示出了较强的运营能力。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0f7ed91cc77a7608f989c309da2424\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77599794906fc70113d215a39013f836\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93cc45a1e227e770d76cb8cbf7986a10\"></p>\n<p><b><span>酒旅行业</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e777d340219210e2368b0acfd0922632\"></p>\n<p><span>首先看全国航空流量。目前，全国航班满座率普遍在30%-40%之间，而航班取消率也仍然高达20%水平。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b19bf02e48e030f898ccdf14b74dd17\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec732be59b25aade5c6a5d6cc7a0ef10\"></p>\n<p><span>再来看酒店行业的数据。以华住集团（NASDAQ:HTHT）为例，截至2月9日，依然有50%的门店保持关闭状态，导致整体入住率也保持较低水平。相对而言，北京、上海的酒店入住率依然相对最好，能够达到约50%的水平。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>教育行业</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd2c71b296acc624fb588b2f95588a4\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/febca16c53640b74e07dd491942d8425\"></p>\n<p><span>截至2月6日，东方优播（HK:01797）和学而思网校（NYSE:TAL）的春季课报名人数取得大幅增长。由于春季课在2月底才开始报名，这样的增长可能只是刚刚开始。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>娱乐行业</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e24523432774df6e0ca8f33582d01ec2\"></p>\n<p><span>哔哩哔哩（NASDAQ:BILI）的观看量、活跃UP主数继续大幅增长。百观数据显示，在1月6日到2月3日之间，这两项指标的增长高达34%和58%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52e12f86529e05a0a05a3b3a5bdd3af8\"></p>\n<p><span>在笔者跟踪的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">虎牙</a>（NYSE:HUYA）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">斗鱼</a>（NASDAQ:DOYU）、YY（NASDAQ:YY）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">陌陌</a>（NASDAQ:MOMO）、酷狗和全民K歌（NYSE:TME）等6大直播平台中，绝大多数平台在春节后的收入增长并不明显。</span></p>\n<p><span>看起来，直播行业似乎并未从疫情中大幅受益。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>电商行业</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9fbb6bab4eda3d9ed2a22e520c7e6d8\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c4f5dd0086e453de34861f412f30c6a\"></p>\n<p><span>从笔者监测的电商数据来看，在月销售额超过1亿人民币的商品品类中，1月份口罩的MoM增长的确是最快的。</span></p>\n<p><span>其他增长较快的与疫情相关的品类包括洗手液、体温计、消毒液、QQ充值（HK:00700）、游戏软件、游戏点卡等。</span></p>\n<p><span>在医疗大品类中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMM\">3M</a>（NYSE:MMM）是增长最快的品牌。3M的口罩和护眼产品分别获得394%和768%的暴涨。国产品牌海氏海诺的增长排名第二。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大数据中的商业百态：九毛九受打击最严重，B站流量涨30%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大数据中的商业百态：九毛九受打击最严重，B站流量涨30%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/55\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df70e92a2d64be896797ea06b5e676a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">阿尔法工场研究院 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-02-20 08:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i><b>导语：盘点新冠病毒对各大行业的经济影响。</b></i></p>\n<p><span>2020年，中国以举国之力紧张焦灼地抗击疫情。同时，疫情对经济的影响更是不可小觑。笔者一直坚持客观立场，致力于高效地为市场提供经济运行的真实面貌。</span></p>\n<p><span>当下，各种信息尤其纷乱爆炸：谣言与真相交错，且大众对真相和事实的渴求十分强烈，我们也愈发感受到肩上的重担。</span></p>\n<p><span>在过去的两周时间里，笔者迅速组织研发力量，对各行各业展开大数据实时跟踪，这里特与大家分享报告的精选内容。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>餐饮行业</span></b></p>\n<p><span>笔者持续跟踪官方公布的疫情动态，并按照确诊人数挑选了全国前20大重点受灾城市。这些城市既包含湖北的大多数城市，也包含北上广深等一线城市，占全国确诊病例近77%。</span></p>\n<p><span>同时，我们也将受灾城市与各大餐饮品牌的全国分布情况进行了精准匹配。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85569defd4fca34853d99c934afdfdf2\"></p>\n<p><span>可以看到，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">九毛九</a>（HK:09922）受到的潜在打击最大，有60%的旗下门店（包含太二酸菜鱼）处在疫情重灾区。</span></p>\n<p><span>相对而言，肯德基（YUMC.US）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">海底捞</a>（HK:06862）仅分别有28%和33%的门店位于重灾区。</span></p>\n<p><span>如果全国疫情在未来持续分化、重灾区继续保持高压防控态势，而灾情较轻的地区逐渐恢复正常的生产经营活动，那不同餐饮企业的复苏轨迹也可能产生分化。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff8f55e36bf1cf51dcdbd72f1715c26\"></p>\n<p><span>虽然<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>（NASDAQ:LK）官方并没有披露门店运营数据，但我们能清晰地看到，截止2月7日（上周五），全国共有4494家瑞幸门店（含小鹿茶）处于关门状态。全国关店率达到94%，湖北省关店率达到100%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cefe37d42644abdb372744fd5d5f931a\"></p>\n<p><span>这种严峻情势从2月10日起得到一定缓解，全国关店率小幅下降到87%，其中北京关店率从上周五的91%下降到60%，上海下降到71%。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>酒旅行业</span></b></p>\n<p><span>疫情对旅游行业的打击是显而易见的。笔者持续跟踪全国航班、各<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00045\">大酒店</a>集团入住率等日颗粒度数据。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1747f899312ea5f138f22cee1b783617\"></p>\n<p><span>我们看到，截止1月31日，无论是全国范围内，还是北京、上海这些重点机场，出境航班满座率都大跌至50%水平，且还在持续走低。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41442c1a5535a604fa3dcd416ec74454\"></p>\n<p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">华住</a>集团（NASDAQ:HTHT）旗下酒店也开始大规模关店，截止1月31日关店比率达到50%（红线）。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bda9e693ccd0f3a65593e284aff7d99\"></p>\n<p><span>华住酒店在湖北、陕西、甘肃、河南、山东、浙江等省份的关店情况尤其严重（红色），而华住在全国范围内酒店入住率也仅处在20%-40%的水平（灰线）。相比而言，华住集团在2019年1季度的整体入住率高达81%。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>互娱行业</span></b></p>\n<p><span>突如其来的疫情也催生了新的行业机会。生活还要继续，足不出户也依然要活得精彩。市场普遍认为，这次疫情为在线娱乐、在线教育、在线办公等行业带来新的发展机会。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/165fae56b22dfdd74a31446a356e345f\"></p>\n<p><span>笔者发现，随着全国学校整体延迟开学，广受年轻人欢迎的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>（NASDAQ:BILI）在1月份取得了30%以上的观看数和活跃up主数的增长。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bebe89e325975f6782dbf85ac21531f\"></p>\n<p><span>整体来看，生活类和游戏类在1月份的环比增长最大。我们也观察到，B站在生活类视频中新添加了“抗击肺炎”主题，该类主题的视频的观看量占到了全站观看量的5%。如果剔除“抗击肺炎”主题的影响，增长最大的类别是游戏。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>O2O及餐饮行业</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/074eb6f4f6aa52a132c5a469da5d7f00\"></p>\n<p><span>根据笔者的数据监测，2月上旬约有83%的美团外卖（HK:03690）商家处在关闭的状态。该数据也能一定程度上反映全国餐饮行业整体的关店情况。</span></p>\n<p><span>受打击最大的省份包括湖北、陕西、河南、甘肃和江西。在这些省份里，超过90%的餐馆处于停业状态。</span></p>\n<p><span>北京、广东、上海的情况相对较好，均有30%以上的门店依然开放。</span></p>\n<p><span>对于肯德基（NYSE:YUMC）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">麦当劳</a>（NYSE:MCD）这些国际快餐品牌来说，虽然在湖北省关店率达到100%，但在全国其他地方的营业状况都显著好于行业平均水平。</span></p>\n<p><span>例如在北京，肯德基和麦当劳的关店率分别只有5%和6%，显示出了较强的运营能力。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0f7ed91cc77a7608f989c309da2424\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77599794906fc70113d215a39013f836\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93cc45a1e227e770d76cb8cbf7986a10\"></p>\n<p><b><span>酒旅行业</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e777d340219210e2368b0acfd0922632\"></p>\n<p><span>首先看全国航空流量。目前，全国航班满座率普遍在30%-40%之间，而航班取消率也仍然高达20%水平。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b19bf02e48e030f898ccdf14b74dd17\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec732be59b25aade5c6a5d6cc7a0ef10\"></p>\n<p><span>再来看酒店行业的数据。以华住集团（NASDAQ:HTHT）为例，截至2月9日，依然有50%的门店保持关闭状态，导致整体入住率也保持较低水平。相对而言，北京、上海的酒店入住率依然相对最好，能够达到约50%的水平。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>教育行业</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd2c71b296acc624fb588b2f95588a4\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/febca16c53640b74e07dd491942d8425\"></p>\n<p><span>截至2月6日，东方优播（HK:01797）和学而思网校（NYSE:TAL）的春季课报名人数取得大幅增长。由于春季课在2月底才开始报名，这样的增长可能只是刚刚开始。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>娱乐行业</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e24523432774df6e0ca8f33582d01ec2\"></p>\n<p><span>哔哩哔哩（NASDAQ:BILI）的观看量、活跃UP主数继续大幅增长。百观数据显示，在1月6日到2月3日之间，这两项指标的增长高达34%和58%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52e12f86529e05a0a05a3b3a5bdd3af8\"></p>\n<p><span>在笔者跟踪的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">虎牙</a>（NYSE:HUYA）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">斗鱼</a>（NASDAQ:DOYU）、YY（NASDAQ:YY）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">陌陌</a>（NASDAQ:MOMO）、酷狗和全民K歌（NYSE:TME）等6大直播平台中，绝大多数平台在春节后的收入增长并不明显。</span></p>\n<p><span>看起来，直播行业似乎并未从疫情中大幅受益。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>电商行业</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9fbb6bab4eda3d9ed2a22e520c7e6d8\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c4f5dd0086e453de34861f412f30c6a\"></p>\n<p><span>从笔者监测的电商数据来看，在月销售额超过1亿人民币的商品品类中，1月份口罩的MoM增长的确是最快的。</span></p>\n<p><span>其他增长较快的与疫情相关的品类包括洗手液、体温计、消毒液、QQ充值（HK:00700）、游戏软件、游戏点卡等。</span></p>\n<p><span>在医疗大品类中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMM\">3M</a>（NYSE:MMM）是增长最快的品牌。3M的口罩和护眼产品分别获得394%和768%的暴涨。国产品牌海氏海诺的增长排名第二。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6de9a684c67674fb8033c0e2e7e716a","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124013022","content_text":"导语：盘点新冠病毒对各大行业的经济影响。\n2020年，中国以举国之力紧张焦灼地抗击疫情。同时，疫情对经济的影响更是不可小觑。笔者一直坚持客观立场，致力于高效地为市场提供经济运行的真实面貌。\n当下，各种信息尤其纷乱爆炸：谣言与真相交错，且大众对真相和事实的渴求十分强烈，我们也愈发感受到肩上的重担。\n在过去的两周时间里，笔者迅速组织研发力量，对各行各业展开大数据实时跟踪，这里特与大家分享报告的精选内容。\n餐饮行业\n笔者持续跟踪官方公布的疫情动态，并按照确诊人数挑选了全国前20大重点受灾城市。这些城市既包含湖北的大多数城市，也包含北上广深等一线城市，占全国确诊病例近77%。\n同时，我们也将受灾城市与各大餐饮品牌的全国分布情况进行了精准匹配。\n\n可以看到，九毛九（HK:09922）受到的潜在打击最大，有60%的旗下门店（包含太二酸菜鱼）处在疫情重灾区。\n相对而言，肯德基（YUMC.US）和海底捞（HK:06862）仅分别有28%和33%的门店位于重灾区。\n如果全国疫情在未来持续分化、重灾区继续保持高压防控态势，而灾情较轻的地区逐渐恢复正常的生产经营活动，那不同餐饮企业的复苏轨迹也可能产生分化。\n\n虽然瑞幸咖啡（NASDAQ:LK）官方并没有披露门店运营数据，但我们能清晰地看到，截止2月7日（上周五），全国共有4494家瑞幸门店（含小鹿茶）处于关门状态。全国关店率达到94%，湖北省关店率达到100%。\n\n这种严峻情势从2月10日起得到一定缓解，全国关店率小幅下降到87%，其中北京关店率从上周五的91%下降到60%，上海下降到71%。\n酒旅行业\n疫情对旅游行业的打击是显而易见的。笔者持续跟踪全国航班、各大酒店集团入住率等日颗粒度数据。\n\n我们看到，截止1月31日，无论是全国范围内，还是北京、上海这些重点机场，出境航班满座率都大跌至50%水平，且还在持续走低。\n\n华住集团（NASDAQ:HTHT）旗下酒店也开始大规模关店，截止1月31日关店比率达到50%（红线）。\n\n华住酒店在湖北、陕西、甘肃、河南、山东、浙江等省份的关店情况尤其严重（红色），而华住在全国范围内酒店入住率也仅处在20%-40%的水平（灰线）。相比而言，华住集团在2019年1季度的整体入住率高达81%。\n互娱行业\n突如其来的疫情也催生了新的行业机会。生活还要继续，足不出户也依然要活得精彩。市场普遍认为，这次疫情为在线娱乐、在线教育、在线办公等行业带来新的发展机会。\n\n笔者发现，随着全国学校整体延迟开学，广受年轻人欢迎的哔哩哔哩（NASDAQ:BILI）在1月份取得了30%以上的观看数和活跃up主数的增长。\n\n整体来看，生活类和游戏类在1月份的环比增长最大。我们也观察到，B站在生活类视频中新添加了“抗击肺炎”主题，该类主题的视频的观看量占到了全站观看量的5%。如果剔除“抗击肺炎”主题的影响，增长最大的类别是游戏。\nO2O及餐饮行业\n\n根据笔者的数据监测，2月上旬约有83%的美团外卖（HK:03690）商家处在关闭的状态。该数据也能一定程度上反映全国餐饮行业整体的关店情况。\n受打击最大的省份包括湖北、陕西、河南、甘肃和江西。在这些省份里，超过90%的餐馆处于停业状态。\n北京、广东、上海的情况相对较好，均有30%以上的门店依然开放。\n对于肯德基（NYSE:YUMC）、麦当劳（NYSE:MCD）这些国际快餐品牌来说，虽然在湖北省关店率达到100%，但在全国其他地方的营业状况都显著好于行业平均水平。\n例如在北京，肯德基和麦当劳的关店率分别只有5%和6%，显示出了较强的运营能力。\n\n酒旅行业\n\n首先看全国航空流量。目前，全国航班满座率普遍在30%-40%之间，而航班取消率也仍然高达20%水平。\n\n再来看酒店行业的数据。以华住集团（NASDAQ:HTHT）为例，截至2月9日，依然有50%的门店保持关闭状态，导致整体入住率也保持较低水平。相对而言，北京、上海的酒店入住率依然相对最好，能够达到约50%的水平。\n教育行业\n\n截至2月6日，东方优播（HK:01797）和学而思网校（NYSE:TAL）的春季课报名人数取得大幅增长。由于春季课在2月底才开始报名，这样的增长可能只是刚刚开始。\n娱乐行业\n\n哔哩哔哩（NASDAQ:BILI）的观看量、活跃UP主数继续大幅增长。百观数据显示，在1月6日到2月3日之间，这两项指标的增长高达34%和58%。\n\n在笔者跟踪的虎牙（NYSE:HUYA）、斗鱼（NASDAQ:DOYU）、YY（NASDAQ:YY）、陌陌（NASDAQ:MOMO）、酷狗和全民K歌（NYSE:TME）等6大直播平台中，绝大多数平台在春节后的收入增长并不明显。\n看起来，直播行业似乎并未从疫情中大幅受益。\n电商行业\n\n从笔者监测的电商数据来看，在月销售额超过1亿人民币的商品品类中，1月份口罩的MoM增长的确是最快的。\n其他增长较快的与疫情相关的品类包括洗手液、体温计、消毒液、QQ充值（HK:00700）、游戏软件、游戏点卡等。\n在医疗大品类中，3M（NYSE:MMM）是增长最快的品牌。3M的口罩和护眼产品分别获得394%和768%的暴涨。国产品牌海氏海诺的增长排名第二。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":915801516,"gmtCreate":1580755313835,"gmtModify":1704342220488,"author":{"id":"3458692978440262","authorId":"3458692978440262","name":"干杯朋友","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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