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佚仙人

佚仙人

你想要别人如何待你，你就该如何待人。

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2018-05-21

周黑鸭下跌就是买入机会

$周黑鸭(01458)$ 周黑鸭，港股市值*0.81汇率=人民币市值，159*0.81=128.79亿，128.79亿除以7.6亿净利润=静态pe16.95 价格便宜 2017年门店增速31%，较2016年门店增速21%明显加快，开店初期的投入及宣传成本增加对2017年业绩产生不利影响，但会在接下来几年报表中产生积极影响给予2018年15%净利润增速，净利润8.74亿，给予20倍pe即174.8亿RMB，等于215亿港币，较当前涨幅35%（9.05元）长期而言，直营的周黑鸭比加盟的绝味更容易受消费者欢迎，品牌价值更高，能享受更高的估值，个人认为快速发展阶段周黑鸭合理估值在25-30倍风险因素：净利润增速不及预期

周黑鸭下跌就是买入机会

2018-05-25

穿越牛熊，5年3倍股

$百胜中国(YUMC)$ 1、市场覆盖面广，客群大众化，现金流充裕，都是百胜中国的最大优势 2、肯德基在中国扩张速度近两年分别为9%、10%，现有门店数量和新开门店数量大幅领先竞争对手麦当劳中国（金拱门），可参考麦当劳开店计划为每年250家，百胜中国占据先发优势 3、百胜中国作为一只餐饮股，也是儿童和青少年普遍喜欢的餐饮公司，中国儿童的增长会逐渐释放政策红利，未来盈利增长确定性高 4、参考麦当劳公司股价，穿越了2002年之后的所有牛熊市，是很好的防御标的劣势： 1、必胜客新品不及预期，产品不够符合大众化需求，还需要投入更多创新 2、百胜中国目前覆盖1200个城市，但中国有2862个县，以县为单位覆盖率仅为41.9%，而许多县城消费能力已经大幅提升 3、容易被禽流感等特殊事件影响

穿越牛熊，5年3倍股

2019-04-21

$周黑鸭(01458)$周黑鸭仍是好公司，经历了一年的下跌，市场预期普遍较差，但19年营收再下降的概率已经越来越小，偏低的估值已经越来越有安全边际。

2020-05-08

$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$目前溢价率-6.8%，平时的波动区间大约是多少？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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2、百胜中国目前覆盖1200个城市，但中国有2862个县，以县为单位覆盖率仅为41.9%，而许多县城消费能力已经大幅提升 3、容易被禽流感等特殊事件影响","images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/40bced02bdbc99a4b97d3d2c3eaee2fd"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274687092931","authorId":"3479274687092931","name":"挖优狗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dd0be8ee69182463f43e4b3daa6bb9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274687092931","authorIdStr":"3479274687092931"},"content":"必胜客有点差","text":"必胜客有点差","html":"必胜客有点差"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":192254,"gmtCreate":1526836537619,"gmtModify":1704893316092,"author":{"id":"3458113404915637","authorId":"3458113404915637","name":"佚仙人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/145a851099392771316e51eb9781047e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3458113404915637","authorIdStr":"3458113404915637"},"themes":[],"title":"周黑鸭下跌就是买入机会","htmlText":"$周黑鸭(01458)$ 周黑鸭，港股市值*0.81汇率=人民币市值，159*0.81=128.79亿，128.79亿除以7.6亿净利润=静态pe16.95 价格便宜 2017年门店增速31%，较2016年门店增速21%明显加快，开店初期的投入及宣传成本增加对2017年业绩产生不利影响，但会在接下来几年报表中产生积极影响 给予2018年15%净利润增速，净利润8.74亿，给予20倍pe即174.8亿RMB，等于215亿港币，较当前涨幅35%（9.05元） 长期而言，直营的周黑鸭比加盟的绝味更容易受消费者欢迎，品牌价值更高，能享受更高的估值，个人认为快速发展阶段周黑鸭合理估值在25-30倍 风险因素：净利润增速不及预期","listText":"$周黑鸭(01458)$ 周黑鸭，港股市值*0.81汇率=人民币市值，159*0.81=128.79亿，128.79亿除以7.6亿净利润=静态pe16.95 价格便宜 2017年门店增速31%，较2016年门店增速21%明显加快，开店初期的投入及宣传成本增加对2017年业绩产生不利影响，但会在接下来几年报表中产生积极影响 给予2018年15%净利润增速，净利润8.74亿，给予20倍pe即174.8亿RMB，等于215亿港币，较当前涨幅35%（9.05元） 长期而言，直营的周黑鸭比加盟的绝味更容易受消费者欢迎，品牌价值更高，能享受更高的估值，个人认为快速发展阶段周黑鸭合理估值在25-30倍 风险因素：净利润增速不及预期","text":"$周黑鸭(01458)$ 周黑鸭，港股市值*0.81汇率=人民币市值，159*0.81=128.79亿，128.79亿除以7.6亿净利润=静态pe16.95 价格便宜 2017年门店增速31%，较2016年门店增速21%明显加快，开店初期的投入及宣传成本增加对2017年业绩产生不利影响，但会在接下来几年报表中产生积极影响 给予2018年15%净利润增速，净利润8.74亿，给予20倍pe即174.8亿RMB，等于215亿港币，较当前涨幅35%（9.05元） 长期而言，直营的周黑鸭比加盟的绝味更容易受消费者欢迎，品牌价值更高，能享受更高的估值，个人认为快速发展阶段周黑鸭合理估值在25-30倍 风险因素：净利润增速不及预期","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192254","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3486787275089599","authorId":"3486787275089599","name":"李艳娥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3486787275089599","authorIdStr":"3486787275089599"},"content":"这个算法合适，但是一年左右35的涨幅，不算很好的投资标，做等海底捞上市。","text":"这个算法合适，但是一年左右35的涨幅，不算很好的投资标，做等海底捞上市。","html":"这个算法合适，但是一年左右35的涨幅，不算很好的投资标，做等海底捞上市。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":192254,"gmtCreate":1526836537619,"gmtModify":1704893316092,"author":{"id":"3458113404915637","authorId":"3458113404915637","name":"佚仙人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/145a851099392771316e51eb9781047e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458113404915637","idStr":"3458113404915637"},"themes":[],"title":"周黑鸭下跌就是买入机会","htmlText":"$周黑鸭(01458)$ 周黑鸭，港股市值*0.81汇率=人民币市值，159*0.81=128.79亿，128.79亿除以7.6亿净利润=静态pe16.95 价格便宜 2017年门店增速31%，较2016年门店增速21%明显加快，开店初期的投入及宣传成本增加对2017年业绩产生不利影响，但会在接下来几年报表中产生积极影响 给予2018年15%净利润增速，净利润8.74亿，给予20倍pe即174.8亿RMB，等于215亿港币，较当前涨幅35%（9.05元） 长期而言，直营的周黑鸭比加盟的绝味更容易受消费者欢迎，品牌价值更高，能享受更高的估值，个人认为快速发展阶段周黑鸭合理估值在25-30倍 风险因素：净利润增速不及预期","listText":"$周黑鸭(01458)$ 周黑鸭，港股市值*0.81汇率=人民币市值，159*0.81=128.79亿，128.79亿除以7.6亿净利润=静态pe16.95 价格便宜 2017年门店增速31%，较2016年门店增速21%明显加快，开店初期的投入及宣传成本增加对2017年业绩产生不利影响，但会在接下来几年报表中产生积极影响 给予2018年15%净利润增速，净利润8.74亿，给予20倍pe即174.8亿RMB，等于215亿港币，较当前涨幅35%（9.05元） 长期而言，直营的周黑鸭比加盟的绝味更容易受消费者欢迎，品牌价值更高，能享受更高的估值，个人认为快速发展阶段周黑鸭合理估值在25-30倍 风险因素：净利润增速不及预期","text":"$周黑鸭(01458)$ 周黑鸭，港股市值*0.81汇率=人民币市值，159*0.81=128.79亿，128.79亿除以7.6亿净利润=静态pe16.95 价格便宜 2017年门店增速31%，较2016年门店增速21%明显加快，开店初期的投入及宣传成本增加对2017年业绩产生不利影响，但会在接下来几年报表中产生积极影响 给予2018年15%净利润增速，净利润8.74亿，给予20倍pe即174.8亿RMB，等于215亿港币，较当前涨幅35%（9.05元） 长期而言，直营的周黑鸭比加盟的绝味更容易受消费者欢迎，品牌价值更高，能享受更高的估值，个人认为快速发展阶段周黑鸭合理估值在25-30倍 风险因素：净利润增速不及预期","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192254","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3486787275089599","authorId":"3486787275089599","name":"李艳娥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3486787275089599","idStr":"3486787275089599"},"content":"这个算法合适，但是一年左右35的涨幅，不算很好的投资标，做等海底捞上市。","text":"这个算法合适，但是一年左右35的涨幅，不算很好的投资标，做等海底捞上市。","html":"这个算法合适，但是一年左右35的涨幅，不算很好的投资标，做等海底捞上市。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":194288,"gmtCreate":1527180445478,"gmtModify":1704893595266,"author":{"id":"3458113404915637","authorId":"3458113404915637","name":"佚仙人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/145a851099392771316e51eb9781047e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458113404915637","idStr":"3458113404915637"},"themes":[],"title":"穿越牛熊，5年3倍股","htmlText":"$百胜中国(YUMC)$ 1、市场覆盖面广，客群大众化，现金流充裕，都是百胜中国的最大优势 2、肯德基在中国扩张速度近两年分别为9%、10%，现有门店数量和新开门店数量大幅领先竞争对手麦当劳中国（金拱门），可参考麦当劳开店计划为每年250家，百胜中国占据先发优势 3、百胜中国作为一只餐饮股，也是儿童和青少年普遍喜欢的餐饮公司，中国儿童的增长会逐渐释放政策红利，未来盈利增长确定性高 4、参考麦当劳公司股价，穿越了2002年之后的所有牛熊市，是很好的防御标的 劣势： 1、必胜客新品不及预期，产品不够符合大众化需求，还需要投入更多创新 2、百胜中国目前覆盖1200个城市，但中国有2862个县，以县为单位覆盖率仅为41.9%，而许多县城消费能力已经大幅提升 3、容易被禽流感等特殊事件影响","listText":"$百胜中国(YUMC)$ 1、市场覆盖面广，客群大众化，现金流充裕，都是百胜中国的最大优势 2、肯德基在中国扩张速度近两年分别为9%、10%，现有门店数量和新开门店数量大幅领先竞争对手麦当劳中国（金拱门），可参考麦当劳开店计划为每年250家，百胜中国占据先发优势 3、百胜中国作为一只餐饮股，也是儿童和青少年普遍喜欢的餐饮公司，中国儿童的增长会逐渐释放政策红利，未来盈利增长确定性高 4、参考麦当劳公司股价，穿越了2002年之后的所有牛熊市，是很好的防御标的 劣势： 1、必胜客新品不及预期，产品不够符合大众化需求，还需要投入更多创新 2、百胜中国目前覆盖1200个城市，但中国有2862个县，以县为单位覆盖率仅为41.9%，而许多县城消费能力已经大幅提升 3、容易被禽流感等特殊事件影响","text":"$百胜中国(YUMC)$ 1、市场覆盖面广，客群大众化，现金流充裕，都是百胜中国的最大优势 2、肯德基在中国扩张速度近两年分别为9%、10%，现有门店数量和新开门店数量大幅领先竞争对手麦当劳中国（金拱门），可参考麦当劳开店计划为每年250家，百胜中国占据先发优势 3、百胜中国作为一只餐饮股，也是儿童和青少年普遍喜欢的餐饮公司，中国儿童的增长会逐渐释放政策红利，未来盈利增长确定性高 4、参考麦当劳公司股价，穿越了2002年之后的所有牛熊市，是很好的防御标的 劣势： 1、必胜客新品不及预期，产品不够符合大众化需求，还需要投入更多创新 2、百胜中国目前覆盖1200个城市，但中国有2862个县，以县为单位覆盖率仅为41.9%，而许多县城消费能力已经大幅提升 3、容易被禽流感等特殊事件影响","images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/40bced02bdbc99a4b97d3d2c3eaee2fd"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274687092931","authorId":"3479274687092931","name":"挖优狗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dd0be8ee69182463f43e4b3daa6bb9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3479274687092931","idStr":"3479274687092931"},"content":"必胜客有点差","text":"必胜客有点差","html":"必胜客有点差"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":900493031,"gmtCreate":1555832069923,"gmtModify":1704799481061,"author":{"id":"3458113404915637","authorId":"3458113404915637","name":"佚仙人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/145a851099392771316e51eb9781047e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458113404915637","idStr":"3458113404915637"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$周黑鸭(01458)$周黑鸭仍是好公司，经历了一年的下跌，市场预期普遍较差，但19年营收再下降的概率已经越来越小，偏低的估值已经越来越有安全边际。","listText":"$周黑鸭(01458)$周黑鸭仍是好公司，经历了一年的下跌，市场预期普遍较差，但19年营收再下降的概率已经越来越小，偏低的估值已经越来越有安全边际。","text":"$周黑鸭(01458)$周黑鸭仍是好公司，经历了一年的下跌，市场预期普遍较差，但19年营收再下降的概率已经越来越小，偏低的估值已经越来越有安全边际。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/900493031","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3442996840839928","authorId":"3442996840839928","name":"天选","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb865df1e44888e2e3508043d2a6e2d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3442996840839928","idStr":"3442996840839928"},"content":"。。很难了。。。新产品起不来。。消费者喜新厌旧严重。。。直营对管理能力是很大考验。。","text":"。。很难了。。。新产品起不来。。消费者喜新厌旧严重。。。直营对管理能力是很大考验。。","html":"。。很难了。。。新产品起不来。。消费者喜新厌旧严重。。。直营对管理能力是很大考验。。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927480454,"gmtCreate":1588950579478,"gmtModify":1704179063997,"author":{"id":"3458113404915637","authorId":"3458113404915637","name":"佚仙人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/145a851099392771316e51eb9781047e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458113404915637","idStr":"3458113404915637"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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