ZJStar的个人主页 - 老虎社区

ZJStar

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IP属地：山西

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0勋章

2020-02-05

$聚美优品(JMEI)$ 这货什么时候私有化啊，会不会再开一次会变成2块私有化

2018-02-08

财报好就暴跌是新时尚么？

$iRobot Corp.(IRBT)$为什么暴跌啊？

财报好就暴跌是新时尚么？

2019-01-05

$美都能源(600175)$这就是传说中鑫合汇的股东？卷了22亿还这吊样，半死不活的……韭菜收割机……

02-01

一周五企稳

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-10-16

$深证成指(399001)$

2023-08-17

美股一年崩八次

抱歉，原内容已删除

2018-07-27

这股是真的垃圾！

$聚美优品(JMEI)$这股是真的垃圾，就是那种两耳不闻窗外事，一心只想往下跌的类型……

这股是真的垃圾！

2017-11-10

貌似在爬坡了

$iRobot Corp.(IRBT)$ 貌似在爬坡了……大神们谈谈自己的看法？

貌似在爬坡了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">药明生物</a>涨3.17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02359\">药明康德</a>涨2.69%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00297\">中化化肥</a>跌9.3%。</p><p><strong>A股</strong></p><p>A股市场全天冲高回落震荡分化，沪指延续调整，创业板指展开反弹。今日缩量十字星报收，短线已现企稳信号，考虑到春节长假因素，节前或维持缩量态势。截至收盘，沪指跌0.64%，深成指涨0.34%，创业板指涨1%。北向资金全天净买入27.26亿，其中沪股通净买入11.26亿元，深股通净买入16亿元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e009a39adae7057badca83961ef34e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>个股跌多涨少，全市场超4100只个股下跌，超60只个股跌停或跌超10%。沪深两市今日成交额7030亿，较上个交易日缩量553亿。板块方面，CPO、BC电池、减肥药、半导体等板块涨幅居前，ST板块、教育、房地产开发、石油加工等板块跌幅居前。</p><p>盘面上，光伏概念股开盘拉升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300093\">金刚光伏</a>涨超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600732\">爱旭股份</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/001269\">欧晶科技</a>等涨停。CPO概念股震荡拉升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300394\">天孚通信</a>涨超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603083\">剑桥科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002902\">铭普光磁</a>涨停，算力、多模态等方向也跟随反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601138\">工业富联</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002230\">科大讯飞</a>涨超5%。半导体板块盘中活跃，存储芯片方向领涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688766\">普冉股份</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301308\">江波龙</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688256\">寒武纪</a>涨超5%。下跌方面，中字头、上海本地股持续调整，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000151\">中成股份</a>、上海雅士等多股跌停。</p><p>今日，多只沪深300ETF和上证50ETF再度放量，华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF、华夏上证50ETF、华夏沪深300ETF和嘉实沪深300ETF今日成交额分别达60.92亿元、46.14亿元、37.23亿元和32.42亿元，合计成交额为176.71亿元。</p><p><strong>美股</strong></p><p>美股三大股指期货小幅走高，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.04%，纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.46%，标普500指数期货涨0.23%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33bae1202922b11eb331d3447a5115d7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"195\"/></p><p><strong>欧股</strong></p><p>欧洲主要指数多数下跌，德国DAX30跌0.4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌0.47%，法国CAC40跌0.27%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1d7b0857fc5c588b96de2fd73954fa\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"459\" tg-height=\"442\"/></p><p><strong>原油</strong></p><p>原油期货小幅走低，WTI原油报75.52美元/桶，跌0.44%；布油现报80.23美元/桶，跌0.4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ab4e3a6473aa3c8acdca17f5c69837f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"831\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4685848cf36734590d63153a43079946\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"828\"/></p><p><strong>黄金</strong></p><p>黄金期货日内走低，现跌0.48%，报2057.5美元/盎司。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95636de86796c6ccb55ae98df7dfd43c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"831\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场综述丨A股现企稳信号！神秘资金继续托底ETF基金；恒指午后涨幅收窄，药明系带动医药板块集体走强\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-02-01 16:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>港股科指午后回落收涨2%，科技股强势；创业板指冲高回落收涨1%，中字头、国资股持续调整；美股三大股指期货小幅走高；欧洲主要指数多数下跌；原油、黄金均走低&gt;&gt;</p></blockquote><p><strong>港股</strong></p><p>恒指今日午后延续午盘前回调态势，一路震荡下行回吐早间涨幅，最终涨幅不足百点小幅收红结束两连阴。恒生科技指数午后跟随下挫，涨幅收窄至不足百点。截至收盘，恒指收涨0.52%，报15566.21点，科指收涨2%，报3065.95点，恒指大市成交额达949.07亿港元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6bf41bf527effa64716bfb7e50321a3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>盘面上，科网股全天表现强势，药明系带动医药板块集体反弹，中特估板块全天震荡调整，个股方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">东方甄选</a>涨6.74%，昨日公告<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>及俞敏洪承诺以市价购买合计7亿港元公司股份。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00772\">阅文集团</a>涨7.51%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">药明生物</a>涨3.17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02359\">药明康德</a>涨2.69%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00297\">中化化肥</a>跌9.3%。</p><p><strong>A股</strong></p><p>A股市场全天冲高回落震荡分化，沪指延续调整，创业板指展开反弹。今日缩量十字星报收，短线已现企稳信号，考虑到春节长假因素，节前或维持缩量态势。截至收盘，沪指跌0.64%，深成指涨0.34%，创业板指涨1%。北向资金全天净买入27.26亿，其中沪股通净买入11.26亿元，深股通净买入16亿元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e009a39adae7057badca83961ef34e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>个股跌多涨少，全市场超4100只个股下跌，超60只个股跌停或跌超10%。沪深两市今日成交额7030亿，较上个交易日缩量553亿。板块方面，CPO、BC电池、减肥药、半导体等板块涨幅居前，ST板块、教育、房地产开发、石油加工等板块跌幅居前。</p><p>盘面上，光伏概念股开盘拉升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300093\">金刚光伏</a>涨超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600732\">爱旭股份</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/001269\">欧晶科技</a>等涨停。CPO概念股震荡拉升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300394\">天孚通信</a>涨超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603083\">剑桥科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002902\">铭普光磁</a>涨停，算力、多模态等方向也跟随反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601138\">工业富联</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002230\">科大讯飞</a>涨超5%。半导体板块盘中活跃，存储芯片方向领涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688766\">普冉股份</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301308\">江波龙</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688256\">寒武纪</a>涨超5%。下跌方面，中字头、上海本地股持续调整，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000151\">中成股份</a>、上海雅士等多股跌停。</p><p>今日，多只沪深300ETF和上证50ETF再度放量，华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF、华夏上证50ETF、华夏沪深300ETF和嘉实沪深300ETF今日成交额分别达60.92亿元、46.14亿元、37.23亿元和32.42亿元，合计成交额为176.71亿元。</p><p><strong>美股</strong></p><p>美股三大股指期货小幅走高，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.04%，纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.46%，标普500指数期货涨0.23%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33bae1202922b11eb331d3447a5115d7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"195\"/></p><p><strong>欧股</strong></p><p>欧洲主要指数多数下跌，德国DAX30跌0.4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌0.47%，法国CAC40跌0.27%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1d7b0857fc5c588b96de2fd73954fa\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"459\" tg-height=\"442\"/></p><p><strong>原油</strong></p><p>原油期货小幅走低，WTI原油报75.52美元/桶，跌0.44%；布油现报80.23美元/桶，跌0.4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ab4e3a6473aa3c8acdca17f5c69837f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"831\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4685848cf36734590d63153a43079946\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"828\"/></p><p><strong>黄金</strong></p><p>黄金期货日内走低，现跌0.48%，报2057.5美元/盎司。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95636de86796c6ccb55ae98df7dfd43c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"831\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"159938":"医药","399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","513600":"恒生指数ETF","02833":"恒指ETF","HSI":"恒生指数","BK1161":"生物科技","000001.SH":"上证指数","BK1515":"抗疫概念","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","BK1574":"生物医药B类股","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","09939":"开拓药业-B","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165521676","content_text":"港股科指午后回落收涨2%，科技股强势；创业板指冲高回落收涨1%，中字头、国资股持续调整；美股三大股指期货小幅走高；欧洲主要指数多数下跌；原油、黄金均走低>>港股恒指今日午后延续午盘前回调态势，一路震荡下行回吐早间涨幅，最终涨幅不足百点小幅收红结束两连阴。恒生科技指数午后跟随下挫，涨幅收窄至不足百点。截至收盘，恒指收涨0.52%，报15566.21点，科指收涨2%，报3065.95点，恒指大市成交额达949.07亿港元。盘面上，科网股全天表现强势，药明系带动医药板块集体反弹，中特估板块全天震荡调整，个股方面，东方甄选涨6.74%，昨日公告新东方及俞敏洪承诺以市价购买合计7亿港元公司股份。阅文集团涨7.51%，药明生物涨3.17%，药明康德涨2.69%，中化化肥跌9.3%。A股A股市场全天冲高回落震荡分化，沪指延续调整，创业板指展开反弹。今日缩量十字星报收，短线已现企稳信号，考虑到春节长假因素，节前或维持缩量态势。截至收盘，沪指跌0.64%，深成指涨0.34%，创业板指涨1%。北向资金全天净买入27.26亿，其中沪股通净买入11.26亿元，深股通净买入16亿元。个股跌多涨少，全市场超4100只个股下跌，超60只个股跌停或跌超10%。沪深两市今日成交额7030亿，较上个交易日缩量553亿。板块方面，CPO、BC电池、减肥药、半导体等板块涨幅居前，ST板块、教育、房地产开发、石油加工等板块跌幅居前。盘面上，光伏概念股开盘拉升，金刚光伏涨超10%，爱旭股份、欧晶科技等涨停。CPO概念股震荡拉升，天孚通信涨超10%，剑桥科技、铭普光磁涨停，算力、多模态等方向也跟随反弹，工业富联、科大讯飞涨超5%。半导体板块盘中活跃，存储芯片方向领涨，普冉股份、江波龙、寒武纪涨超5%。下跌方面，中字头、上海本地股持续调整，中成股份、上海雅士等多股跌停。今日，多只沪深300ETF和上证50ETF再度放量，华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF、华夏上证50ETF、华夏沪深300ETF和嘉实沪深300ETF今日成交额分别达60.92亿元、46.14亿元、37.23亿元和32.42亿元，合计成交额为176.71亿元。美股美股三大股指期货小幅走高，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.04%，纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.46%，标普500指数期货涨0.23%。欧股欧洲主要指数多数下跌，德国DAX30跌0.4%，英国富时100跌0.47%，法国CAC40跌0.27%。原油原油期货小幅走低，WTI原油报75.52美元/桶，跌0.44%；布油现报80.23美元/桶，跌0.4%。黄金黄金期货日内走低，现跌0.48%，报2057.5美元/盎司。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":231106050662584,"gmtCreate":1697440963411,"gmtModify":1697440964303,"author":{"id":"3457926052050116","authorId":"3457926052050116","name":"ZJStar","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3457926052050116","authorIdStr":"3457926052050116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399001\">$深证成指(399001)$ &nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399001\">$深证成指(399001)$ &nbsp;</a>","text":"$深证成指(399001)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/231106050662584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":209965225455768,"gmtCreate":1692282421585,"gmtModify":1692282422936,"author":{"id":"3457926052050116","authorId":"3457926052050116","name":"ZJStar","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3457926052050116","authorIdStr":"3457926052050116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股一年崩八次","listText":"美股一年崩八次","text":"美股一年崩八次","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/209965225455768","repostId":"1153999708","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153999708","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1692256652,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153999708?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-08-17 15:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"小心！美股真要崩盘了？巴菲特与“大空头”都在做准备","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153999708","media":"智通财经","summary":"巴菲特正在囤积现金，而伯里正在做空基准股指，这正是因为他们预计股市会下跌。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>畅销理财书《富爸爸，穷爸爸》的作者罗伯特·清崎认为，巴菲特和电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔·伯里最近的一系列操作表明，他们都在为美股崩盘以及逢低买进做准备。清崎在访谈中表示:“巴菲特坐拥1470亿美元场外观望，他的钱都在短期美债上。迈克尔·伯里现在正在做空市场。现在有很多资金在场外观望。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司上季度净出售了80亿美元的股票，并放慢了回购步伐。这推动其所持现金和美国国债总额增加了13%，达到接近创纪录的1470亿美元。按照巴菲特的标准，这不算太多，但在市场上涨时，这是一个重大举措。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>巴菲特没有明确预测股市崩盘，但在过去三个季度里，他净卖出了330亿美元的股票，伯克希尔的现金储备增加了380亿美元。</strong>这位逢低买进者现在有足够的“干火药”，如果市场真的回落，他可以用来购买低价股票和收购企业——就像他在大衰退期间与高盛、通用电气和许多其他公司达成交易一样。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">至于伯里，伯里旗下Scion资产管理公司本周披露，<strong>该公司在6月底持有标普500 ETF信托和景顺QQQ信托的看跌期权，买入规模分别为8.66亿美元与7.39亿美元。</strong>这两只ETF分别追踪基准的标普500指数和纳斯达克100指数，这意味着，如果这两个股指下跌，他将获利。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，<strong>他曾多次警告美股处于历史性的泡沫中，并预测一场规模相当于“所有崩盘之母”的大崩盘将会发生。</strong>他最近的空头头寸敲响了警钟，他是少数几个预测到2008年美国房地产市场崩盘并从中获利的人之一。和巴菲特一样，他也是一名价值投资者，擅长发现被低估的企业，并寻求从抛售中抄底获利。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>清崎认为，巴菲特正在囤积现金，而伯里正在做空基准股指，这正是因为他们预计股市会下跌。</strong>虽然巴菲特可能只是觉得没有什么值得买进的股票，而伯里也可能是在对冲自己的投资组合，但他们当然有可能认为股市过热，即将陷入困境。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美国抗通胀难题仍未解</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>尽管市场仍处于软着陆和加息暂停的预期里，但最近市场开始有一些美国通胀见底的声音，因为美国经济仍保持韧性，市场对于宏观需求再次拉起通胀的担忧持续存在。</strong>而经济的韧性又暗藏着可能重新拉高通胀和再度加息的威胁。近期原油和天然气价格反弹到了新的年内高点、7月份的超级核心通胀指标(剔除住房和能源)出现今年来首次回升、7月PPI数据高于预期(同比增速为去年8月以来首次回升)以及近来美国楼市有回温迹象等因素仍阻碍着通胀回落至美联储2%的目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而且本周二公布的“恐怖数据”也让加深了市场上述的担忧。7 月份零售额激增0.7%，是六个月来的最大增幅，高于媒体调查的经济学家预测的0.4%。尽管美联储已连续一年多加息，7月份零售销售的激增为一些政策制定者提供了进一步支持在今年最后四个月内再次加息的信息，并使得10年期美国国债的收益率达到了自2008年以来的最高水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>收益率上升通常被视为会对美股产生不利影响。</strong>但目前尚不清楚它们需要上升到多高才会产生这种影响，这很大程度上取决于这些利率的上升速度。尽管10年期收益率在2022年8月15日从2.79%的低点上升，美股在今年上半年还是成功地实现了上涨。现在人们担心的是，10年期收益率从现在起进一步升至4%以上，将继续推高小企业和消费者的资本成本，并使股票基础变得更加不稳定。LPL Financial的首席全球策略师Quincy Krosby表示：“这个好消息其实是坏消息，周二的数据让已经非常敏感的美债市场和股票市场都受到了‘震动’。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>尽管市场最近对美国经济“软着陆”的呼声越来越大，但美国经济前景并非毫无风险。</strong>其中一个风险在于，如果通胀在经济逊于预期的情况下再度升温，美联储可能需要更加严格的紧缩政策，这将引发美联储官员们希望避免的衰退。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>而且近来美国消费支出强劲与消费通胀放缓并不必然就意味着“软着陆”就在眼前。</strong>中金此前指出，美国7月CPI放缓更多与供给改善有关，且很多是输入性的，并未充分反映美国经济内需的韧性。比如上面提到的二手车和家具家电价格下跌，这些与供应链改善有关;机票价格下跌与前期油价下跌有关，这些都属于输入性的反通胀。相反，更多代表内需的房租、剔除房租和机票的核心服务通胀放缓不明显，说明美国经济的内部需求仍有韧性。这意味着通胀虽放缓，但美国利率居高不下(high for longer)或难以改变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic周一在一份投资者报告中指出，尽管上周公布的美国7月CPI数据与市场预期基本一致，但通胀趋势仍不确定。Marko Kolanovic表示：“未来几个月，核心商品通胀预计将下滑，但我们认为这种趋势不太可能持续下去，因为随着全球工业部门恢复增长，大宗商品价格正在走高。另外，核心服务通胀可能仍具有粘性。我们还没有脱离通胀困境。尽管7月CPI数据显示通胀持续下滑，但我们认为现在宣布抗击通胀取得胜利还为时过早。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得一提的是，Marko Kolanovic今年以来一直对美股持悲观看法。他在上月底曾警告称，全球央行大幅加息的延迟影响、消费者储蓄减少以及“令人深感不安”的地缘政治背景，将引发新的市场下跌和波动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>全球经济“金丝雀”也发出不祥信号</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国作为全球最大的出口国之一，出口的各种商品使其数据成为国际贸易趋势的晴雨表。韩国在7月份出口持续下滑，全球贸易复苏的希望遇到阻碍。根据贸易部周二发布的数据显示，韩国出口额同比下降了16.5%，而经济学家预计下降幅度为15%。整体进口额下降了25.4%，导致贸易顺差为16亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，由于海外需求疲软，日本出口出现两年多来首次下降。数据显示，日本7月份出口额同比下降0.3%，是自2021年2月以来的首次下降，原因是芯片制造设备和零部件的出货量大幅下降。经济学家此前预测出口额下降0.2%。因此，受轻油和芯片制造设备需求疲软拖累，日本7月出口出现近两年半来首次下降，凸显了全球经济衰退风险大。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小心！美股真要崩盘了？巴菲特与“大空头”都在做准备\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-17 15:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/976830.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>畅销理财书《富爸爸，穷爸爸》的作者罗伯特·清崎认为，巴菲特和电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔·伯里最近的一系列操作表明，他们都在为美股崩盘以及逢低买进做准备。清崎在访谈中表示:“巴菲特坐拥1470亿美元场外观望，他的钱都在短期美债上。迈克尔·伯里现在正在做空市场。现在有很多资金在场外观望。”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司上季度净出售了80亿美元的股票，并放慢了回购步伐。这推动其所持现金和美国国债总额增加...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/976830.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2fa677fed5826ffc321a30ef60eea0","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/976830.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1153999708","content_text":"畅销理财书《富爸爸，穷爸爸》的作者罗伯特·清崎认为，巴菲特和电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔·伯里最近的一系列操作表明，他们都在为美股崩盘以及逢低买进做准备。清崎在访谈中表示:“巴菲特坐拥1470亿美元场外观望，他的钱都在短期美债上。迈克尔·伯里现在正在做空市场。现在有很多资金在场外观望。”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司上季度净出售了80亿美元的股票，并放慢了回购步伐。这推动其所持现金和美国国债总额增加了13%，达到接近创纪录的1470亿美元。按照巴菲特的标准，这不算太多，但在市场上涨时，这是一个重大举措。巴菲特没有明确预测股市崩盘，但在过去三个季度里，他净卖出了330亿美元的股票，伯克希尔的现金储备增加了380亿美元。这位逢低买进者现在有足够的“干火药”，如果市场真的回落，他可以用来购买低价股票和收购企业——就像他在大衰退期间与高盛、通用电气和许多其他公司达成交易一样。至于伯里，伯里旗下Scion资产管理公司本周披露，该公司在6月底持有标普500 ETF信托和景顺QQQ信托的看跌期权，买入规模分别为8.66亿美元与7.39亿美元。这两只ETF分别追踪基准的标普500指数和纳斯达克100指数，这意味着，如果这两个股指下跌，他将获利。与此同时，他曾多次警告美股处于历史性的泡沫中，并预测一场规模相当于“所有崩盘之母”的大崩盘将会发生。他最近的空头头寸敲响了警钟，他是少数几个预测到2008年美国房地产市场崩盘并从中获利的人之一。和巴菲特一样，他也是一名价值投资者，擅长发现被低估的企业，并寻求从抛售中抄底获利。清崎认为，巴菲特正在囤积现金，而伯里正在做空基准股指，这正是因为他们预计股市会下跌。虽然巴菲特可能只是觉得没有什么值得买进的股票，而伯里也可能是在对冲自己的投资组合，但他们当然有可能认为股市过热，即将陷入困境。美国抗通胀难题仍未解尽管市场仍处于软着陆和加息暂停的预期里，但最近市场开始有一些美国通胀见底的声音，因为美国经济仍保持韧性，市场对于宏观需求再次拉起通胀的担忧持续存在。而经济的韧性又暗藏着可能重新拉高通胀和再度加息的威胁。近期原油和天然气价格反弹到了新的年内高点、7月份的超级核心通胀指标(剔除住房和能源)出现今年来首次回升、7月PPI数据高于预期(同比增速为去年8月以来首次回升)以及近来美国楼市有回温迹象等因素仍阻碍着通胀回落至美联储2%的目标。而且本周二公布的“恐怖数据”也让加深了市场上述的担忧。7 月份零售额激增0.7%，是六个月来的最大增幅，高于媒体调查的经济学家预测的0.4%。尽管美联储已连续一年多加息，7月份零售销售的激增为一些政策制定者提供了进一步支持在今年最后四个月内再次加息的信息，并使得10年期美国国债的收益率达到了自2008年以来的最高水平。收益率上升通常被视为会对美股产生不利影响。但目前尚不清楚它们需要上升到多高才会产生这种影响，这很大程度上取决于这些利率的上升速度。尽管10年期收益率在2022年8月15日从2.79%的低点上升，美股在今年上半年还是成功地实现了上涨。现在人们担心的是，10年期收益率从现在起进一步升至4%以上，将继续推高小企业和消费者的资本成本，并使股票基础变得更加不稳定。LPL Financial的首席全球策略师Quincy Krosby表示：“这个好消息其实是坏消息，周二的数据让已经非常敏感的美债市场和股票市场都受到了‘震动’。”尽管市场最近对美国经济“软着陆”的呼声越来越大，但美国经济前景并非毫无风险。其中一个风险在于，如果通胀在经济逊于预期的情况下再度升温，美联储可能需要更加严格的紧缩政策，这将引发美联储官员们希望避免的衰退。而且近来美国消费支出强劲与消费通胀放缓并不必然就意味着“软着陆”就在眼前。中金此前指出，美国7月CPI放缓更多与供给改善有关，且很多是输入性的，并未充分反映美国经济内需的韧性。比如上面提到的二手车和家具家电价格下跌，这些与供应链改善有关;机票价格下跌与前期油价下跌有关，这些都属于输入性的反通胀。相反，更多代表内需的房租、剔除房租和机票的核心服务通胀放缓不明显，说明美国经济的内部需求仍有韧性。这意味着通胀虽放缓，但美国利率居高不下(high for longer)或难以改变。摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic周一在一份投资者报告中指出，尽管上周公布的美国7月CPI数据与市场预期基本一致，但通胀趋势仍不确定。Marko Kolanovic表示：“未来几个月，核心商品通胀预计将下滑，但我们认为这种趋势不太可能持续下去，因为随着全球工业部门恢复增长，大宗商品价格正在走高。另外，核心服务通胀可能仍具有粘性。我们还没有脱离通胀困境。尽管7月CPI数据显示通胀持续下滑，但我们认为现在宣布抗击通胀取得胜利还为时过早。”值得一提的是，Marko 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