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Tesla_Wang

Tesla_Wang

现在是马斯克的忠实粉丝

IP属地：北京

51关注

306粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2023-09-03

小号 model q 可以的通勤利器

特斯拉新款Model 3价格为何不降反涨？

2023-05-11

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 不争气的东西，微软都涨回来了

2022-10-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$砸锅卖铁上[笑哭]

2022-10-14

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$最查一届美联储和总统。

2022-10-10

$特斯拉(TSLA)$给留个裤衩[开心]

2022-10-04

经济衰退预兆？

特斯拉大跌，市场担心的是物流吗？不，担心的是需求！

2022-09-27

$特斯拉(TSLA)$国庆节Aiday加财报，看来好消息不断

2022-09-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$自动驾驶可以解决建设火星基地运输和人工智能机器人图形识别的问题。又有钱输入[得意]

2022-08-16

$苹果(AAPL)$没想到这波行情反弹最稳的是苹果

2022-08-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$能不能跌到700？

2022-07-26

$特斯拉(TSLA)$啥时候跌到660，我买点。

2022-07-21

未能在泡沫前套现是我最大的遗憾。。美联储**天天说话不算数[笑哭]

财报未能继续惊艳，特斯拉多空博弈或愈演愈烈

2022-06-24

$特斯拉(TSLA)$还没有小鹏，理想保值，真是太阳出西边出来了[笑哭]

2022-06-22

$特斯拉(TSLA)$特斯拉机器人快来了，太阳系盟主

2022-06-21

$特斯拉(TSLA)$经济衰退要到来，未来担忧啊。。[流泪]

2022-06-17

$特斯拉(TSLA)$如果把放水的钱挤掉，确实存在一定泡沫🥹

2022-06-16

$特斯拉(TSLA)$今晚要跌回去的节奏

2022-06-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$21年底没精准逃顶，深深自责[捂脸]

2022-06-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$我们公司昨晚猝死一个大佬，我现在真担心马斯克身体[捂脸]

2022-06-09

$盛新锂能(002240)$这才是矿老板，挖煤的都落后了

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model q 可以的通勤利器","listText":"小号 model q 可以的通勤利器","text":"小号 model q 可以的通勤利器","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/215884186443960","repostId":"2364276022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2364276022","pubTimestamp":1693549835,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2364276022?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-09-01 14:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉新款Model 3价格为何不降反涨？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2364276022","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Model 3上浮后，Model Q要下沉？","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>Model 3上浮后，Model Q要下沉？</p></blockquote><p>9月1日，特拉斯官网正式上线全新<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>Model 3，同时还公布了25.99-29.59万元的售价，并将在今年第四季度开始交付。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>新闻《远光灯》了解到，<strong>作为从2016年发布以来的首次改款，Model 3主要是在外观细节上进行了微调，内饰也变得更为简洁，电池容量进行了升级，CLTC续航里程最高为713km。</strong></p><p>此前一天已经有消息称全新特斯拉Model 3将于9月1日发布，但不按常理出牌的特斯拉，虽然准时推出了新款产品，但无论是售价还是改款配置，均打破此前市场预期，不仅没有“如愿”下探到20万价格区间，甚至起售价上调了2.8万元。</p><p><strong>新款Model 3为何没有继续挥舞起特斯拉降价大旗？时隔6年对Model 3进行首次改款，特斯拉真正意图何在？</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2865709232\">01 首次改款变化多 起售价格上涨2.8万元</h2><p>仅从售价来看，全新Model 3后轮驱动焕新版相比2022款后轮驱动版（23.19万）上涨了2.8万元；长续航全轮驱动焕新版的售价为39.59万元，且暂时并没有提供像2022款的高性能版车型，但全新长续航全轮驱动焕新版的优势是713km的更长续航里程。因此，全新Model 3的起售价格的确是变高了，相反万众期待的入门级（低价）车型并没有出现。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f100a4456bee0843d242ce499271681\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"1190\"/></p><p>根据全新Model 3的官图来看，新车延续了现款车型的整体风格，前脸最为明显的是换装了全新矩阵式LED大灯组，前保险杠细节也有调整，同时还配有新样式的轮毂和尾灯组。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c155ec0893e7e52901e4a5348dab9dad\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"534\"/></p><p>内饰方面，全新Model 3的内饰布局更为简洁，并取消了方向盘后侧的转向灯拨杆，而转向灯的操作则集成在了方向盘之上，同时经典的怀挡设计也被取消，并转移到中控屏内。值得一提的是，车内还首次增加了RGB氛围灯，液晶仪表以及新式中控屏幕，以及还将升级音响系统（杜比全景声）。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f9ffa00912a143c6e2c25ee82ea6e4c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"499\"/></p><p>全新Model 3前排座椅将会加入通风功能，同时还采用了与新款Model S相同的8英寸后排液晶屏，并支持调节座椅加热、空调风量、播放音乐和视频。另外，新车还新增了远端安全气囊。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc67437f0aa667dfd6d447011af167eb\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"448\"/></p><p>动力方面，全新Model 3后驱焕新版的电池容量从60kWh提升至66kWh，CLTC续航里程会提升到610km，电机的最大功率为194kW，峰值扭矩为340N·m。长续航焕新版的续航里程则提升到713km，电机综合功率为331kW，峰值扭矩为559N·m。另外，新车还对悬架系统进行了全新调校，并搭载新一代车身稳定系统。</p><p><strong>此次特斯拉全新Model 3的上市有些“突然”，毕竟一款新车要在国内上市，必须先完成工信部的备案。按照惯例，新车将在备案后3-6个月甚至更短的时间内完成上市。</strong></p><p><strong>而腾讯新闻《远光灯》目前暂时未能查阅到全新Model 3的备案文件。此前有传闻称，全新Model 3 9月底便可以集中交付，目前来看，其上市的速度的确够快，随后也将会在第四季度开始交付。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3480670080\">02 “看不见的地方”有较大升级，为FSD落地铺路</h2><p>回顾历史，当前在售的Model 3已经在市场上摸爬滚打了6年之久——2016年发布，2017年上市，2021年1月国产，历经4次小改款、8次价格调整，顶着各种质疑贯穿中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>汽车从0到1的全过程。</p><p>2023年Q2特斯拉营收249.27亿美元，同比增长47%，净利润27.03亿美元，同比增长20%，但其毛利率已经下滑至18.2%，创三年新低。降价创收毕竟不是长久之计，面对年内180万辆的交付目标，目前仅交付了88.9万辆，特斯拉急需一针强心剂。</p><p>2022年底至今，关于Model 3改款的消息此起彼伏，但官方并没有就此事给出任何回应，可见其保密级别较高。此前，据X（原推特）上名为“Tesla China Analyst”知情人士透露，新款Model3项目在内部被命名为Highland Project，目前已经开始投产，9月份就可以开始陆续交付，并且整车的设计风格与Model S类似，尾部设计酷似保时捷Macan，9月份将会对新车解密。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5f14691f7d809e0ae866404a78b21c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"217\"/></p><p>有几点现象也同样佐证了特斯拉即将要推出新款Model 3。特斯拉上海超级工厂在7月份开始改造计划，已经于8月7日改造完成，预计总产能可提升36%，年产能预计从75万辆提升至110万辆，除了产能提升，有很大可能也是为适配生产全新Model 3。此外，在7月初，特斯拉门店销售集体发朋友圈低价出售一手展车，侧面也释放了即将改款的信号。</p><p>之前传言，全新Model 3会有各种升级，并表示新车上市一定会降价，毕竟全新Model 3的车身结构将采用集成度更高的一体压铸制造，减少零部件数量精进产线，单车制造成本进一步压缩，车身的安全性也能得到一定提升，同时车身还有极大的可能取消激光雷达。</p><p>但在9月1日所公布的售价来看，全新Model 3不但没有降价，反而出乎意料的进行了涨价。对比来看，全新Model 3焕新版（后驱版）相比2022款后轮驱动版（售23.19万元）上涨了2.8万元。</p><p><strong>这可能还是与全新Model 3硬件层面和软件层面升级有关，尽管马斯克一直在控制并缩减Model 3车身和生产线的成本，但全新Model 3在“看不见的地方”还是有着较大的升级。</strong></p><p>诸如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>架构方面，全新Model 3硬件或将搭载HW3.5，并非此前传闻的HW 4.0，二者的主要区别在于后者集成了人工智能芯片，面对自动驾驶有更多的算力冗余，但即便是HW3.5，整车的算力相较老款也是得到了大幅提升。</p><p>智能驾驶方面，全新Model 3有极大的可能取消激光雷达，这不仅符合特斯拉对于纯视觉自动驾驶方案的坚持，也能在成本控制上再上一个台阶，但这也仅仅是一种可能。</p><p>虽然特斯拉CEO马斯克曾表示，“雷达感知的确在特殊天气下有优势，但在大多数驾驶场景下没什么用处，还会因为增加冗余带来数据处理的麻烦。”他认为雷达方案对于自动驾驶来说较为落后，但以视觉方案为代表的Tesla Vision目前并不能完全取代雷达方案，在此前的测试中还会出现“幽灵刹车”等问题，并不能取得多数消费者的信任，在这个时间节点全部取消雷达传感器仍有些为时过早。</p><p>2023年是中国城市辅助驾驶的元年，小鹏的城市NGP、理想的城市NOA、华为的ADS 2.0等陆续按计划进入市场，而作为最先推广FSD的特斯拉却一直没什么动静。直到8月中旬，特斯拉才公告称会先组建一个20人左右的本土团队推动FSD落地，数据也将会存在国内的数据中心受政府监管。国内FSD落地速度不及自主品牌，起了个大早，赶了个晚集。</p><p>从交付目标角度来看，全新Model 3的到来在可以稳住或提升毛利率的同时，也能“健康”地实现年内180万辆的目标。但如果新款销量不达预期，马斯克或将有望再次使用“降价魔法”，压缩毛利率达成目标。基于这样的目标，全新Model 3售价已经进行了小幅上涨，如果上市后卖的不好，不排除会促成降价。</p><p><strong>而根据马斯克在今年第二季度电话会议上所表示的内容来看，未来随着FSD正式进入中国之后，全新Model 3是有望采用“0成本”销售的，毕竟马斯克是想通过月付或年单的功能预订来实现更多盈利，这点类似国内通信运营商那种“5G套餐送手机”的道理。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2714789256\">03 不要忘了Model Q，它也许会下沉到10-15万元</h2><p>特斯拉为何没有像猜测的用降价来继续卷？其实大招还在后面</p><p>回溯Model 3的降价历史，在2021年，B级纯电轿车市场除了Model 3之外，就只有售价直逼30万的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>汉EV和小鹏P7了，无论是品牌力还是产品力，Model 3同级几乎是没有对手般的存在。</p><p>而后凭借其优秀的成本控制形成巨大的价格优势，把一台原售价40-50万元的车降到了25万元，野蛮生长大口吃肉，不仅在纯电市场独占鳌头，还迅速蚕食BBA及大众丰田等部分B级合资燃油车市场份额，直接带动了新能源汽车渗透率的激增。</p><p>面对“不讲武德”的特斯拉，其他品牌也是被打了个措手不及，有些甚至不惜亏本造车，含泪跟风降价救亡图存。特斯拉因为有很好的成本管理和产线，其财务表现很健康，然而对于造车新势力来讲，还没有成熟的制造规模，甚至供应链都不稳定，又被逼得不得不降价，卖得出去可以少亏，卖不出去就是巨亏，销量不好还会影响下一轮融资，大部分品牌在温饱线上来回挣扎。</p><p>频繁降价除了影响新车市场，还搅乱了二手车市场。车贩子刚满心欢喜的抄底了一台特斯拉，还没等出手，新车就已经比收购价还低。</p><p>但在2022-2023年，中国纯电B级轿车市场迎来了翻天覆地的变化，自主品牌百花齐放百家争鸣，哪咤S、零跑C01、极氪001、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>ET5、比亚迪海豹、深蓝SL03等，要么带着更高的配置，要么带着更低的价格，无一例外全部瞄准这个“不讲武德”的特斯拉。</p><p>在今年的7月6日，2023年中国汽车论坛上，中国汽车工业协会携手一汽、东风、上汽、长安、北汽、广汽、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000951\">中国重汽</a>、奇瑞、江淮、吉利、长城、比亚迪、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>、理想、小鹏、特斯拉16家企业，签署了《汽车行业维护公平市场秩序承诺书》，其中一项条款约定“坚持遵守行规行约，规范市场营销活动，维护公平竞争秩序，不以非正常价格扰乱市场公平竞争秩序。”不过仅两天后，该《承诺书》因有违《反垄断法》精神，把上述条款从承诺书中删除。</p><p>几天后，特斯拉推出好友引荐购车奖励3500元的变相降价政策，之后又紧跟两次降价，Model 3后驱免8000元保险，Model Y长续/高性能降1.4万元，旗下高端车型Model S/X最高降幅6.2万元，随后蔚来、哪咤、极氪等品牌部分车型继续降价促销，新一轮价格战再次打响。与两年前不同的是，车企们应对降价早有预期，甚至已经未雨绸缪制定好了详细的应对预案。</p><p><strong>假若全新Model 3在未来真的降到20万元以内，不仅同级车型难以招架，还会侵蚀15-20万元紧凑级纯电轿车市场。说到下沉市场，与自主品牌做法不同的是，特斯拉没有急于“多生孩子好打架”，而是“少生优生，幸福一生”的方针，不断精进单条产线，服务于单个车型的规模化生产，Model 3的改款优先级要高于新车型的研发。</strong></p><p>此前有报道称特斯拉正在为全新低价车型规划产能，新车预计是一辆小号Model Y，特斯拉为这款车构建了400万辆的年产能计划，其中北美超级工厂将承担200万辆，德国柏林工厂和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600848\">上海临港</a>工厂分别承担100万辆，该车型或将命名为Model Q。</p><p>根据渲染图，特斯拉Model Q前脸延续特斯拉家族式设计语言，车身侧面采用隐藏式门把手设计，看起来像一台两厢版的Model 3。马斯克在2022 Q3电话会中透露，特斯拉Model Q最快也许会在2024年上市，新车售价只需要16-20万左右，并且下一代Model 3车型成本将是Model 3/Y的一半。</p><p><strong>从这一角度看，Model 3的底线或许就是20万元，不然将会与2024年的Model Q产生价格冲突。不过这仅仅是基于2022年的消息产生的判断。如果新Model 3的研发成本真如马斯克要求的那样实现减半，Model Q也许也会下沉到10-15万元市场，而未来Model 3入门级车型突破20万元可以说轻轻松松。</strong></p><p>Model 3已经完成了改款并上市，那么，Model Y还会远吗？对于消费者而言，不需要知道谁死在了这场战争中，只要记住：“风浪越大，车越便宜。”</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉新款Model 3价格为何不降反涨？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉新款Model 3价格为何不降反涨？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-01 14:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3696949><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Model 3上浮后，Model Q要下沉？9月1日，特拉斯官网正式上线全新特斯拉Model 3，同时还公布了25.99-29.59万元的售价，并将在今年第四季度开始交付。腾讯新闻《远光灯》了解到，作为从2016年发布以来的首次改款，Model 3主要是在外观细节上进行了微调，内饰也变得更为简洁，电池容量进行了升级，CLTC续航里程最高为713km。此前一天已经有消息称全新特斯拉Model 3将于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3696949\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f100a4456bee0843d242ce499271681","relate_stocks":{"LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) 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3进行首次改款，特斯拉真正意图何在？01 首次改款变化多 起售价格上涨2.8万元仅从售价来看，全新Model 3后轮驱动焕新版相比2022款后轮驱动版（23.19万）上涨了2.8万元；长续航全轮驱动焕新版的售价为39.59万元，且暂时并没有提供像2022款的高性能版车型，但全新长续航全轮驱动焕新版的优势是713km的更长续航里程。因此，全新Model 3的起售价格的确是变高了，相反万众期待的入门级（低价）车型并没有出现。根据全新Model 3的官图来看，新车延续了现款车型的整体风格，前脸最为明显的是换装了全新矩阵式LED大灯组，前保险杠细节也有调整，同时还配有新样式的轮毂和尾灯组。内饰方面，全新Model 3的内饰布局更为简洁，并取消了方向盘后侧的转向灯拨杆，而转向灯的操作则集成在了方向盘之上，同时经典的怀挡设计也被取消，并转移到中控屏内。值得一提的是，车内还首次增加了RGB氛围灯，液晶仪表以及新式中控屏幕，以及还将升级音响系统（杜比全景声）。全新Model 3前排座椅将会加入通风功能，同时还采用了与新款Model S相同的8英寸后排液晶屏，并支持调节座椅加热、空调风量、播放音乐和视频。另外，新车还新增了远端安全气囊。动力方面，全新Model 3后驱焕新版的电池容量从60kWh提升至66kWh，CLTC续航里程会提升到610km，电机的最大功率为194kW，峰值扭矩为340N·m。长续航焕新版的续航里程则提升到713km，电机综合功率为331kW，峰值扭矩为559N·m。另外，新车还对悬架系统进行了全新调校，并搭载新一代车身稳定系统。此次特斯拉全新Model 3的上市有些“突然”，毕竟一款新车要在国内上市，必须先完成工信部的备案。按照惯例，新车将在备案后3-6个月甚至更短的时间内完成上市。而腾讯新闻《远光灯》目前暂时未能查阅到全新Model 3的备案文件。此前有传闻称，全新Model 3 9月底便可以集中交付，目前来看，其上市的速度的确够快，随后也将会在第四季度开始交付。02 “看不见的地方”有较大升级，为FSD落地铺路回顾历史，当前在售的Model 3已经在市场上摸爬滚打了6年之久——2016年发布，2017年上市，2021年1月国产，历经4次小改款、8次价格调整，顶着各种质疑贯穿中国新能源汽车从0到1的全过程。2023年Q2特斯拉营收249.27亿美元，同比增长47%，净利润27.03亿美元，同比增长20%，但其毛利率已经下滑至18.2%，创三年新低。降价创收毕竟不是长久之计，面对年内180万辆的交付目标，目前仅交付了88.9万辆，特斯拉急需一针强心剂。2022年底至今，关于Model 3改款的消息此起彼伏，但官方并没有就此事给出任何回应，可见其保密级别较高。此前，据X（原推特）上名为“Tesla China Analyst”知情人士透露，新款Model3项目在内部被命名为Highland Project，目前已经开始投产，9月份就可以开始陆续交付，并且整车的设计风格与Model S类似，尾部设计酷似保时捷Macan，9月份将会对新车解密。有几点现象也同样佐证了特斯拉即将要推出新款Model 3。特斯拉上海超级工厂在7月份开始改造计划，已经于8月7日改造完成，预计总产能可提升36%，年产能预计从75万辆提升至110万辆，除了产能提升，有很大可能也是为适配生产全新Model 3。此外，在7月初，特斯拉门店销售集体发朋友圈低价出售一手展车，侧面也释放了即将改款的信号。之前传言，全新Model 3会有各种升级，并表示新车上市一定会降价，毕竟全新Model 3的车身结构将采用集成度更高的一体压铸制造，减少零部件数量精进产线，单车制造成本进一步压缩，车身的安全性也能得到一定提升，同时车身还有极大的可能取消激光雷达。但在9月1日所公布的售价来看，全新Model 3不但没有降价，反而出乎意料的进行了涨价。对比来看，全新Model 3焕新版（后驱版）相比2022款后轮驱动版（售23.19万元）上涨了2.8万元。这可能还是与全新Model 3硬件层面和软件层面升级有关，尽管马斯克一直在控制并缩减Model 3车身和生产线的成本，但全新Model 3在“看不见的地方”还是有着较大的升级。诸如智能架构方面，全新Model 3硬件或将搭载HW3.5，并非此前传闻的HW 4.0，二者的主要区别在于后者集成了人工智能芯片，面对自动驾驶有更多的算力冗余，但即便是HW3.5，整车的算力相较老款也是得到了大幅提升。智能驾驶方面，全新Model 3有极大的可能取消激光雷达，这不仅符合特斯拉对于纯视觉自动驾驶方案的坚持，也能在成本控制上再上一个台阶，但这也仅仅是一种可能。虽然特斯拉CEO马斯克曾表示，“雷达感知的确在特殊天气下有优势，但在大多数驾驶场景下没什么用处，还会因为增加冗余带来数据处理的麻烦。”他认为雷达方案对于自动驾驶来说较为落后，但以视觉方案为代表的Tesla Vision目前并不能完全取代雷达方案，在此前的测试中还会出现“幽灵刹车”等问题，并不能取得多数消费者的信任，在这个时间节点全部取消雷达传感器仍有些为时过早。2023年是中国城市辅助驾驶的元年，小鹏的城市NGP、理想的城市NOA、华为的ADS 2.0等陆续按计划进入市场，而作为最先推广FSD的特斯拉却一直没什么动静。直到8月中旬，特斯拉才公告称会先组建一个20人左右的本土团队推动FSD落地，数据也将会存在国内的数据中心受政府监管。国内FSD落地速度不及自主品牌，起了个大早，赶了个晚集。从交付目标角度来看，全新Model 3的到来在可以稳住或提升毛利率的同时，也能“健康”地实现年内180万辆的目标。但如果新款销量不达预期，马斯克或将有望再次使用“降价魔法”，压缩毛利率达成目标。基于这样的目标，全新Model 3售价已经进行了小幅上涨，如果上市后卖的不好，不排除会促成降价。而根据马斯克在今年第二季度电话会议上所表示的内容来看，未来随着FSD正式进入中国之后，全新Model 3是有望采用“0成本”销售的，毕竟马斯克是想通过月付或年单的功能预订来实现更多盈利，这点类似国内通信运营商那种“5G套餐送手机”的道理。03 不要忘了Model Q，它也许会下沉到10-15万元特斯拉为何没有像猜测的用降价来继续卷？其实大招还在后面回溯Model 3的降价历史，在2021年，B级纯电轿车市场除了Model 3之外，就只有售价直逼30万的比亚迪汉EV和小鹏P7了，无论是品牌力还是产品力，Model 3同级几乎是没有对手般的存在。而后凭借其优秀的成本控制形成巨大的价格优势，把一台原售价40-50万元的车降到了25万元，野蛮生长大口吃肉，不仅在纯电市场独占鳌头，还迅速蚕食BBA及大众丰田等部分B级合资燃油车市场份额，直接带动了新能源汽车渗透率的激增。面对“不讲武德”的特斯拉，其他品牌也是被打了个措手不及，有些甚至不惜亏本造车，含泪跟风降价救亡图存。特斯拉因为有很好的成本管理和产线，其财务表现很健康，然而对于造车新势力来讲，还没有成熟的制造规模，甚至供应链都不稳定，又被逼得不得不降价，卖得出去可以少亏，卖不出去就是巨亏，销量不好还会影响下一轮融资，大部分品牌在温饱线上来回挣扎。频繁降价除了影响新车市场，还搅乱了二手车市场。车贩子刚满心欢喜的抄底了一台特斯拉，还没等出手，新车就已经比收购价还低。但在2022-2023年，中国纯电B级轿车市场迎来了翻天覆地的变化，自主品牌百花齐放百家争鸣，哪咤S、零跑C01、极氪001、蔚来ET5、比亚迪海豹、深蓝SL03等，要么带着更高的配置，要么带着更低的价格，无一例外全部瞄准这个“不讲武德”的特斯拉。在今年的7月6日，2023年中国汽车论坛上，中国汽车工业协会携手一汽、东风、上汽、长安、北汽、广汽、中国重汽、奇瑞、江淮、吉利、长城、比亚迪、蔚来、理想、小鹏、特斯拉16家企业，签署了《汽车行业维护公平市场秩序承诺书》，其中一项条款约定“坚持遵守行规行约，规范市场营销活动，维护公平竞争秩序，不以非正常价格扰乱市场公平竞争秩序。”不过仅两天后，该《承诺书》因有违《反垄断法》精神，把上述条款从承诺书中删除。几天后，特斯拉推出好友引荐购车奖励3500元的变相降价政策，之后又紧跟两次降价，Model 3后驱免8000元保险，Model Y长续/高性能降1.4万元，旗下高端车型Model S/X最高降幅6.2万元，随后蔚来、哪咤、极氪等品牌部分车型继续降价促销，新一轮价格战再次打响。与两年前不同的是，车企们应对降价早有预期，甚至已经未雨绸缪制定好了详细的应对预案。假若全新Model 3在未来真的降到20万元以内，不仅同级车型难以招架，还会侵蚀15-20万元紧凑级纯电轿车市场。说到下沉市场，与自主品牌做法不同的是，特斯拉没有急于“多生孩子好打架”，而是“少生优生，幸福一生”的方针，不断精进单条产线，服务于单个车型的规模化生产，Model 3的改款优先级要高于新车型的研发。此前有报道称特斯拉正在为全新低价车型规划产能，新车预计是一辆小号Model Y，特斯拉为这款车构建了400万辆的年产能计划，其中北美超级工厂将承担200万辆，德国柏林工厂和上海临港工厂分别承担100万辆，该车型或将命名为Model Q。根据渲染图，特斯拉Model Q前脸延续特斯拉家族式设计语言，车身侧面采用隐藏式门把手设计，看起来像一台两厢版的Model 3。马斯克在2022 Q3电话会中透露，特斯拉Model Q最快也许会在2024年上市，新车售价只需要16-20万左右，并且下一代Model 3车型成本将是Model 3/Y的一半。从这一角度看，Model 3的底线或许就是20万元，不然将会与2024年的Model Q产生价格冲突。不过这仅仅是基于2022年的消息产生的判断。如果新Model 3的研发成本真如马斯克要求的那样实现减半，Model Q也许也会下沉到10-15万元市场，而未来Model 3入门级车型突破20万元可以说轻轻松松。Model 3已经完成了改款并上市，那么，Model 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>给留个裤衩[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$给留个裤衩[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666978928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668505660,"gmtCreate":1664891451050,"gmtModify":1664891453196,"author":{"id":"3457741238547821","authorId":"3457741238547821","name":"Tesla_Wang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2922431c9ce275b71c1f5d869a5af516","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3457741238547821","authorIdStr":"3457741238547821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"经济衰退预兆？","listText":"经济衰退预兆？","text":"经济衰退预兆？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668505660","repostId":"1161367313","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1161367313","pubTimestamp":1664864862,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161367313?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-04 14:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉大跌，市场担心的是物流吗？不，担心的是需求！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161367313","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"究其原因，特斯拉今年三季度的交付数据颇受市场关注。三季度交付量较产量少2.2万辆，如此大的产销差距对于特斯拉而言较为少见，其背后反映的市场需求情况格外引发市场担忧。这种变相降价举动背后所反映的，就是市场需求走弱的状况。通常情况下，产品价格波动会对其市场需求造成影响。与特斯拉交付量略逊于市场预期相比，比亚迪9月的销量则大幅超过市场预期。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>分析认为，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>9月在中国市场推出高额保险补贴的“变相降价”举措反映出其需求走弱。此外，新能源汽车市场的激烈竞争撼动了特斯拉的王座。</b></blockquote><p>周末凭借众多动态“霸屏”新闻热榜的特斯拉，并未因此赢得投资者信心。</p><p>在发布2022年AI日，三季度交付数据，四季度和明年扩产计划等多重消息之后，隔夜特斯拉逆势大跌。与标普500指数、纳指等盘中涨幅均超过2%相比，特斯拉重挫超8%，蒸发了约715亿美元（约合人民币5080亿元）。</p><p>究其原因，特斯拉今年三季度的交付数据颇受市场关注。<b>三季度交付量较产量少2.2万辆，如此大的产销差距对于特斯拉而言较为少见，其背后反映的市场需求情况格外引发市场担忧。</b></p><p>市场担心的是物流吗？不，是需求</p><p>10月2日数据显示，特斯拉三季度交付量为343830辆，虽创纪录新高，但却低于华尔街预期的约35.8万辆。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a95b53ccea2052ac4bc3ade0cc12f623\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>其中，特斯拉在三季度交付了325158辆Model 3和Model Y，以及18672辆Model S和Model X。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f03aacd3c56a05362860351ff327f82\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db1916dd2ec5dedfb706bf38de03f656\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>针对交付低于产能的情况，特斯拉解释称，<b>这是受到物流运输的影响，很多已被订购的新车“仍在运输中”，在到达目的地后会快速交付。</b></p><p>目前来看，这个解释得到了部分华尔街分析人士的认可，但是对于投资者而言，这个说法仍显不足。<b>更令他们感到担忧的，并不是眼下的物流受阻，而是影响更为严重的需求走弱。</b></p><p>媒体称，基金Future Fund Active ETF的联合创始人Gary Black对此表示，他并不像其他华尔街分析师那样乐观，并认为用物流受阻来作为解释原因的人应该回答以下问题，<b>比如特斯拉为什么要在9月于中国市场推出高额保险补贴？这种变相降价举动背后所反映的，就是市场需求走弱的状况。</b></p><p>Black还补充道，特斯拉上述定价行为或将导致特斯拉的潜在买家暂缓购买，希望特斯拉能够再次降价，对后续产品需求造成进一步冲击。</p><p>澎湃新闻此前也曾分析称，虽然特斯拉方面回应“国产Model Y最高降价4万元”为不实消息，但是保险补贴这一“变相降价”消息被看做是特斯拉未来降价的铺垫，不少人认为特斯拉即将在补贴活动结束后的10月份，开启真正的车型降价。</p><p>通常情况下，产品价格波动会对其市场需求造成影响。当价格上调时，买家会积极入场并刺激需求增加，而当价格下调时，买家会选择暂时观望。</p><p>值得注意的是，仍有分析人士指出，虽然看空者将关注交付量数据不及预期，但看涨者可能将关注产量的上升。此外他们还将关注交货的价差，并将在运输中的车辆数量加入他们对第四季的交付预估中。</p><p>特斯拉将于10月19日收市后公布第三季度业绩报告，届时投资者将希望了解有关产量和车辆的最新信息。</p><p>中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>汽车市场的“王者之争”</p><p>而除了需求因素之外，新能源汽车在中国市场所面临的激烈竞争，也让特斯拉难以再继续“高枕无忧”。</p><p>其中就包括“迪王”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>与特斯拉之间的“王者之争”。与特斯拉交付量略逊于市场预期相比，比亚迪9月的销量则大幅超过市场预期。</p><p>比亚迪于10月3日公布的产销数据显示，今年9月，比亚迪月度销量首次突破20万辆，达到201259辆，同比增长151.2%。其中新能源乘用车销量200973辆，同比增长187%。</p><p>1-9月，比亚迪累计销量逼近120万辆大关，达到1191583辆。按照比亚迪的产能规划，今年全年销量会在180万辆以上，如果供应链配合，也有冲刺200万辆的可能。</p><p><b>这意味着从销量来说，比亚迪将会在上半年超过特斯拉之后，全年也稳坐全球新能源销冠的王座。</b></p><p>总而言之，物流受阻、需求走弱叠加激烈的市场竞争，都让投资者开始忧虑，特斯拉是否还能保持优势，一览众山小？</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉大跌，市场担心的是物流吗？不，担心的是需求！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉大跌，市场担心的是物流吗？不，担心的是需求！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-04 14:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671745><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>分析认为，特斯拉9月在中国市场推出高额保险补贴的“变相降价”举措反映出其需求走弱。此外，新能源汽车市场的激烈竞争撼动了特斯拉的王座。周末凭借众多动态“霸屏”新闻热榜的特斯拉，并未因此赢得投资者信心。在发布2022年AI日，三季度交付数据，四季度和明年扩产计划等多重消息之后，隔夜特斯拉逆势大跌。与标普500指数、纳指等盘中涨幅均超过2%相比，特斯拉重挫超8%，蒸发了约715亿美元（约合人民币5080...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671745\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9749762c5ee11a52030b4c66a89c8026","relate_stocks":{"BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671745","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161367313","content_text":"分析认为，特斯拉9月在中国市场推出高额保险补贴的“变相降价”举措反映出其需求走弱。此外，新能源汽车市场的激烈竞争撼动了特斯拉的王座。周末凭借众多动态“霸屏”新闻热榜的特斯拉，并未因此赢得投资者信心。在发布2022年AI日，三季度交付数据，四季度和明年扩产计划等多重消息之后，隔夜特斯拉逆势大跌。与标普500指数、纳指等盘中涨幅均超过2%相比，特斯拉重挫超8%，蒸发了约715亿美元（约合人民币5080亿元）。究其原因，特斯拉今年三季度的交付数据颇受市场关注。三季度交付量较产量少2.2万辆，如此大的产销差距对于特斯拉而言较为少见，其背后反映的市场需求情况格外引发市场担忧。市场担心的是物流吗？不，是需求10月2日数据显示，特斯拉三季度交付量为343830辆，虽创纪录新高，但却低于华尔街预期的约35.8万辆。其中，特斯拉在三季度交付了325158辆Model 3和Model Y，以及18672辆Model S和Model X。针对交付低于产能的情况，特斯拉解释称，这是受到物流运输的影响，很多已被订购的新车“仍在运输中”，在到达目的地后会快速交付。目前来看，这个解释得到了部分华尔街分析人士的认可，但是对于投资者而言，这个说法仍显不足。更令他们感到担忧的，并不是眼下的物流受阻，而是影响更为严重的需求走弱。媒体称，基金Future Fund Active ETF的联合创始人Gary Black对此表示，他并不像其他华尔街分析师那样乐观，并认为用物流受阻来作为解释原因的人应该回答以下问题，比如特斯拉为什么要在9月于中国市场推出高额保险补贴？这种变相降价举动背后所反映的，就是市场需求走弱的状况。Black还补充道，特斯拉上述定价行为或将导致特斯拉的潜在买家暂缓购买，希望特斯拉能够再次降价，对后续产品需求造成进一步冲击。澎湃新闻此前也曾分析称，虽然特斯拉方面回应“国产Model Y最高降价4万元”为不实消息，但是保险补贴这一“变相降价”消息被看做是特斯拉未来降价的铺垫，不少人认为特斯拉即将在补贴活动结束后的10月份，开启真正的车型降价。通常情况下，产品价格波动会对其市场需求造成影响。当价格上调时，买家会积极入场并刺激需求增加，而当价格下调时，买家会选择暂时观望。值得注意的是，仍有分析人士指出，虽然看空者将关注交付量数据不及预期，但看涨者可能将关注产量的上升。此外他们还将关注交货的价差，并将在运输中的车辆数量加入他们对第四季的交付预估中。特斯拉将于10月19日收市后公布第三季度业绩报告，届时投资者将希望了解有关产量和车辆的最新信息。中国新能源汽车市场的“王者之争”而除了需求因素之外，新能源汽车在中国市场所面临的激烈竞争，也让特斯拉难以再继续“高枕无忧”。其中就包括“迪王”比亚迪与特斯拉之间的“王者之争”。与特斯拉交付量略逊于市场预期相比，比亚迪9月的销量则大幅超过市场预期。比亚迪于10月3日公布的产销数据显示，今年9月，比亚迪月度销量首次突破20万辆，达到201259辆，同比增长151.2%。其中新能源乘用车销量200973辆，同比增长187%。1-9月，比亚迪累计销量逼近120万辆大关，达到1191583辆。按照比亚迪的产能规划，今年全年销量会在180万辆以上，如果供应链配合，也有冲刺200万辆的可能。这意味着从销量来说，比亚迪将会在上半年超过特斯拉之后，全年也稳坐全球新能源销冠的王座。总而言之，物流受阻、需求走弱叠加激烈的市场竞争，都让投资者开始忧虑，特斯拉是否还能保持优势，一览众山小？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668099037,"gmtCreate":1664283731529,"gmtModify":1664283732647,"author":{"id":"3457741238547821","authorId":"3457741238547821","name":"Tesla_Wang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2922431c9ce275b71c1f5d869a5af516","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3457741238547821","authorIdStr":"3457741238547821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>自动驾驶可以解决建设火星基地运输和人工智能机器人图形识别的问题。又有钱输入[得意]&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$自动驾驶可以解决建设火星基地运输和人工智能机器人图形识别的问题。又有钱输入[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/663678780","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684733970,"gmtCreate":1660580317292,"gmtModify":1660580317292,"author":{"id":"3457741238547821","authorId":"3457741238547821","name":"Tesla_Wang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2922431c9ce275b71c1f5d869a5af516","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3457741238547821","authorIdStr":"3457741238547821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>没想到这波行情反弹最稳的是苹果","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>能不能跌到700？","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$能不能跌到700？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685121698","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3474017839495591","authorId":"3474017839495591","name":"Abbie","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/3a12dc99a85331cb9529ef6a493abd7d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3474017839495591","authorIdStr":"3474017839495591"},"content":"能 拆股以后","text":"能 拆股以后","html":"能 拆股以后"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":682343567,"gmtCreate":1658812341063,"gmtModify":1658812341063,"author":{"id":"3457741238547821","authorId":"3457741238547821","name":"Tesla_Wang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2922431c9ce275b71c1f5d869a5af516","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3457741238547821","authorIdStr":"3457741238547821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>啥时候跌到660，我买点。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>啥时候跌到660，我买点。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$啥时候跌到660，我买点。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682343567","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":686561020,"gmtCreate":1658396218665,"gmtModify":1704869878443,"author":{"id":"3457741238547821","authorId":"3457741238547821","name":"Tesla_Wang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2922431c9ce275b71c1f5d869a5af516","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3457741238547821","authorIdStr":"3457741238547821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"未能在泡沫前套现是我最大的遗憾。。美联储**天天说话不算数[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"未能在泡沫前套现是我最大的遗憾。。美联储**天天说话不算数[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"未能在泡沫前套现是我最大的遗憾。。美联储**天天说话不算数[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686561020","repostId":"1189182712","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189182712","pubTimestamp":1658393245,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189182712?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-21 16:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报未能继续惊艳，特斯拉多空博弈或愈演愈烈","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189182712","media":"智通财经网","summary":"“特斯拉神话”核心驱动力——交付量与汽车销售均现环比下滑。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>北京时间7月21日晨间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>公布了2022年第二季度财报，特斯拉Q2业绩未能如过去一年那般继续惊艳全球，总营收勉强达到彭博一致预期，多项核心指标出现疲软。不过Q2净利润和调整后每股收益均超预期，这两者反映出特斯拉在解决美国高通胀率和供应链难题导致的成本上行和新冠疫情导致的产能下滑方面取得乐观成效，并且在生产水平重返正轨方面取得积极进展。</p><p>在近几个季度的业绩电话会上，特斯拉CEO马斯克对于未来预期一直持乐观态度，Q2业绩会议上同样如此，“我们有可能在今年下半年取得创纪录成果，”马斯克表示，并指出该公司在加州弗里蒙特和中国上海的工厂6月份产量强劲。马斯克表示他看到大宗商品价格正在走低，并且乐观地认为该公司能够在今年剩余时间内实现创纪录的销量。马斯克还强调特斯拉目前主要阻碍在供应而不是需求方面，并希望降低特斯拉汽车的价格。</p><p>相比于上季度公布财报后盘后股价大幅度拉升，市场对于特斯拉Q2业绩明显存在分歧，公布财报后股价盘后一度涨超4%，但此后走弱，一度下跌超0.6%，最终以1.51%涨幅结束美股盘后交易。一部分投资者认为Q2业绩以及特斯拉管理层给出的的乐观预期，足以提振之前因美联储大幅加息预期而遭遇“杀估值”的低迷股价，也有投资者认为加息周期下特斯拉的业绩无法匹配当前高估值。</p><p>由于Q2交付量因供应链和新冠疫情难题而出现下滑，以及储能单项业务意外出现下滑等影响因素，特斯拉Q2总营收勉强达到分析师们预期，但特斯拉仍然实现净利润以及调整后EPS大幅超预期。毛利率、营业利润率等多项核心指标虽保持在较高水平，但是均出现不同幅度下滑。特斯拉高层以及分析师们乐观的预期，仍然是一些特斯拉信仰者追随特斯拉的关键因素。</p><p>“特斯拉神话”核心<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">驱动力</a>——交付量与汽车销售均现环比下滑</p><p>按细分业务来看，汽车业务仍然是拉动特斯拉营收增长的绝对主力，从过去几年的业绩更可看出汽车业务所占营收比例极大。Q2特斯拉汽车业务(销售+租赁+监管信贷)营收达到146.02亿美元，同比增长87%，占总营收近9成比例。在汽车业务之中，汽车销售占比最大，本季度达到136.7亿美元，然而该项指标1年来首度出现环比下滑，反映的是特斯拉交付量出现环比下降。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb6422e38cba9a73b5337c96feef86b1\" tg-width=\"746\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65b69432825412c7d981a1feb3fb15e0\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/077c0bede6e3a495e36d873478db6f37\" tg-width=\"1388\" tg-height=\"163\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>特斯拉Q2交付量为254,695辆，低于上季度创下的310,048辆这一历史记录，远低于华尔街预测的282,291辆，并且这一数字是华尔街数次下调之后的结果。这也反应出面临高通胀率、供应链难题以及新冠疫情等不利因素综合影响之下，即便强如特斯拉也难以置身事外。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7555de396c6d7dbe5ed8f352f6531c4\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef47b0cf903c35abf864699203f25c4\" tg-width=\"1406\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>“环比下降”一词成Q2业绩“主角”</p><p>特斯拉第二季总营收达到169.34亿美元，未能续创历史新高，不及Q1创下的历史纪录。调整后每股收益为2.27美元，远超分析师普遍预计的1.83美元，上一季度为3.22美元，较上年同期增长57%，但该指标2020年以来首次出现环比下滑。</p><p>同时，特斯拉已连续六个季度营收超100亿美元大关。总营收较去年一季度同比增长42%，但较Q1明显下降，如前所述，<b>交付量、总营收环比下滑及增速放缓反映出在高通胀率、供应链难题以及新冠疫情等重压之下，特斯拉不得不放慢增长的脚步，也不排除美元汇率上行带来的负面影响。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a00dc6fea55db03897a410c8dd671d0\" tg-width=\"1097\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>从销售成本率走势图能看出特斯拉近几年在成本端下足了功夫，坚持花较少的支出创造最大的价值，近几年努力将该指标控制在70%-80%区间。特斯拉第二季度销售成本率约为74%，高于上季度，但略低于去年同期水平。在第二季度通胀率刺激劳动力成本与原材料高企以及供应链受阻的背景之下，在控制销售成本方面，特斯拉第二季度可以说是“相当节俭”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ec5048d7bef6a1036b78dde82a77502\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>毛利率往往是特斯拉众多业绩指标中惊艳市场的重要数据。GAAP准则下特斯拉整体毛利率达到25%高于市场预期，但不及上季度创下的高点，较去年同期高出近89个基点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bdd6d90a342a96fb4cdc5683146115a\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>在2022年，马斯克曾多次表示特斯拉面临通胀压力，主要来自原材料和物流方面，不过特斯拉强势的定价权使得公司可以将成本压力转移给消费者，助力毛利率稳定在相对较高水平。</b></p><p>毛利率是反应企业盈利能力的最直观数据之一，虽然相比于Q1有所下滑，但多数分析师认为特斯拉仍然是当前主流电动汽车企业中盈利能力最强的车企。<b>相比之下，特斯拉毛利率仍然“艳煞”众车企。</b>传统造车巨头大众汽车和戴姆勒奔驰毛利率常年徘徊在20%上下水平，其中戴姆勒近几个季度最高达24%，但是难以跨过25%大关。北美造车巨头福特(F.US)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>(GM.US)则常年在15%左右水平徘徊，而Lucid(LCID.US)和Rivian(RIVN.US)等造车新贵们仍停留在负区间。</p><p>营业利润率往往是反应企业经营能力的重要指标之一，GAAP准则下特斯拉Q1营业利润率达到14.6%，不及Q1创下的历史新高，但相较于去年同期上升358个基点。在通胀压力下，第二季度特斯拉在销售行政以及研发等营业费用方面较为节省，特斯拉Q2营业支出为17.7亿美元，较上年同期上升13%，但低于上季度的18.57亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee4327eebbf5d68cb30abc24be32479e\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>有分析人士认为，特斯拉营业利润率已经完全超越一些传统车企，证明了电动汽车完全可以具备相较于燃油车，甚至一些传统制造型企业来说更强大的盈利能力。</p><p>特斯拉第二季度GAAP准则下净利润为22.59亿美元超市场预期，同比增幅达98%。在净利润强劲增长的带动之下，特斯拉Q1净利率仍然处于较高水平，达到13%。该指标自实现“上岸”(即高于0)以来持续上升，近几个季度均处于高点附近，但第二季度在通胀及供应链等重压下难以再创新高。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e3c94eb7ab59cfacb8a665940b7750\" tg-width=\"1181\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>这一数据对于特斯拉这样一家需要耗费大量支出的造车企业来说实属不易，汽车制造业属于重资产行列，生产前所需投入的各项成本往往非常高，这也是为什么多数造车新贵们前几年，甚至将近10年难以实现获利的重要原因。</b></p><p>为了升级未来产能，特斯拉于 3 月在德国柏林开设了一家新工厂，紧随其后的是 4 月在得克萨斯州奥斯汀开设的另一家工厂。这些是特斯拉开启下一阶段产量增长的关键，但两家工厂自开业以来产能爬坡面临重重困难。产能爬坡时期往往需耗费大量开支，叠加通胀压力难以缓解，后续特斯拉净利率有可能再度受到冲击。</p><p>在现金流方面，特斯拉Q2经营活动产生的现金流净额为23.51亿美元，同比增幅达到11%，占总营收比重为14%，远不及第一季度21%这一高水平。另外，特斯拉Q2自由现金流达到6.21亿美元超出分析师预期，在加密货币抛售潮以及新工厂耗资巨大的压力下，仍然实现了相对乐观的自由现金流水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e919cbd71027a43f56162c31b4e3fb32\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>但需要注意的是，第二季度特斯拉将75%比特币头寸转换为法定货币，这一转换使得特斯拉资产负债表的现金增加了9.36亿美元。若剔除这部分现金，特斯拉第二季度的自由现金流即由正转负。</b></p><p>对于特斯拉这样的重资产造车企业来说，<b>需要耗费大量支出维持日常经营以及产能爬坡，因此维持较高比例的经营现金流实属不易，加之特斯拉如今面临通胀压力及供应链中断，该比例自然难以维系在较高水平。</b>这一比例越高，往往意味着企业有更多资金用于研发等支出，进而不断提高自身竞争力。</p><p>前景乐观信号：原材料和需求</p><p>马斯克和其他高管在业绩会议上均表示大宗商品价格正在走低，今年马斯克曾多次表示特斯拉面临原材料压力，若这些价格出现下滑，对于特斯拉来说无疑是利好消息。<b>特斯拉Q2成本压力激增，以及毛利率、净利率等指标出现下滑，很大程度上是因为铝、镍以及锂原材料持续上涨，近期在经济增长放缓预期下，近期不少金属价格都出现了回落。</b></p><p>除了马斯克，不少分析师也认为大宗商品价格即将开启下行通道，新加坡银行固收研究主管Todd Schubert表示：“大宗商品价格上涨给新兴市场带来的繁荣已经接近尾声。经济严重衰退的风险不断上升，这将进一步削弱对大量大宗商品的需求。”</p><p>Natwest Markets新兴市场外汇策略师Galvin Chia表示：“全球经济增长放缓和全球通胀可能见顶的趋势似乎将继续打压大宗商品市场。”</p><p>在特斯拉业绩新闻稿中，特斯拉继续维持年交付量增速50%的目标。来自华尔街金融机构Wedbush的知名科技股分析师Dan Ives在特斯拉财报公布前几日曾强调，50%的交付量增长水平或将强化围绕该股展开的电动汽车长期需求的积极观点。可以看出，马斯克以及分析师们对于未来的信心无疑来自乐观的需求预期，</p><p>根据市场调研机构Next Move Strategy Consulting公布的统计与预测数据，<b>预计到2030年电池电动汽车市场规模将达到2121.6亿美元，2020-2030年复合增速(CAGR)约为14%。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243726b6f1abc065cda5328758f652bf\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Mordor Intelligence公布的预测数据显示，<b>该机构预计电动汽车市场规模在2027年将达到13933.3亿美元，CAGR高达19.19%</b>。与Next Move统计标的有所不同，Mordor Intelligence统计的电动汽车标的包含电池电动汽车、插电式电动汽车、燃料电池电动汽车和混合动力电动汽车类别。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa20f200078e70b695c5be8178bd501e\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Next Move与Mordor Intelligence在报告中均指出，从长远角度来看，燃料成本增加以及不同国家政府为提高电动汽车普及率而采取的举措等因素预计将在预测期内促进电动汽车的使用。Mordor Intelligence还指出，市场对节油、高性能和低排放汽车的需求激增，以及汽车排放法规日益严格，电池成本降低和燃料成本上升，这些都有助于电动汽车市场持续增长。</p><p>多空势力较量未完待续</p><p>从盘后交易能够看出，多头与空头们上演了一出激烈较量，最终多头势力占据上风。<b>类似的剧情在今年剩余时间或将多次上演，多头们看好特斯拉交付量预期以及未来业绩增长预期，马斯克“画大饼”，以及“估值过高”则是空头们在美联储激进加息周期下不看好特斯拉股价走势的重要原因。</b></p><p>即使经历了长达6个月的“杀估值”浪潮，相对于全球行业估值水平来说，特斯拉目前估值仍然相对较高，在今年剩余时间，若高通胀和供应链问题难以缓解甚至愈演愈烈，叠加美联储加息周期，特斯拉下半年业绩可能不如预期那般乐观，届时或将再度面临大规模抛售。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/633f391139faf79594fe17667399f072\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>华尔街对于特斯拉股价走势仍持乐观态度，分析师们平均预测股价高达906美元。在特斯拉业绩公布后，金融机构CFRA Research火速将特斯拉目标价上调至1125美元，并大幅上调2022-2024年每股收益预期，并强调投资者应将重点放在2022年下半年破纪录的目标上，该机构重申对特斯拉的“强力买入”评级。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10346be32f515fbfe41eaeecb4384bae\" tg-width=\"1102\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>多头们期待看到2020-2021年11月这波教科书式“主升浪”行情再度上演，然而，实现这一趋势并不容易，不仅需要特斯拉高层对于未来增长的乐观预期，更需要强劲的业绩增长证明股价符合市场给予的高估值，进而说服更多投资者。然而，在美联储激进加息，以及高通胀等压力下，“业绩+股价”齐升不可能一蹴而就，中间必然将经历一番波折。</p><p>“下降”一词在第二季度业绩报告中首度频繁出现，因此特斯拉的“增长神话”面临一些投资者的质疑，对于一些较谨慎的投资者来说更是非常不好的信号——美联储加息重压下，“衰退”还停留在预期层面，若衰退真的来临，特斯拉业绩表现会不会更加悲观?</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报未能继续惊艳，特斯拉多空博弈或愈演愈烈\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-21 16:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/759464.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>北京时间7月21日晨间，特斯拉公布了2022年第二季度财报，特斯拉Q2业绩未能如过去一年那般继续惊艳全球，总营收勉强达到彭博一致预期，多项核心指标出现疲软。不过Q2净利润和调整后每股收益均超预期，这两者反映出特斯拉在解决美国高通胀率和供应链难题导致的成本上行和新冠疫情导致的产能下滑方面取得乐观成效，并且在生产水平重返正轨方面取得积极进展。在近几个季度的业绩电话会上，特斯拉CEO马斯克对于未来预期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/759464.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58a301cb208cb8cba027a15506f41b56","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/759464.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1189182712","content_text":"北京时间7月21日晨间，特斯拉公布了2022年第二季度财报，特斯拉Q2业绩未能如过去一年那般继续惊艳全球，总营收勉强达到彭博一致预期，多项核心指标出现疲软。不过Q2净利润和调整后每股收益均超预期，这两者反映出特斯拉在解决美国高通胀率和供应链难题导致的成本上行和新冠疫情导致的产能下滑方面取得乐观成效，并且在生产水平重返正轨方面取得积极进展。在近几个季度的业绩电话会上，特斯拉CEO马斯克对于未来预期一直持乐观态度，Q2业绩会议上同样如此，“我们有可能在今年下半年取得创纪录成果，”马斯克表示，并指出该公司在加州弗里蒙特和中国上海的工厂6月份产量强劲。马斯克表示他看到大宗商品价格正在走低，并且乐观地认为该公司能够在今年剩余时间内实现创纪录的销量。马斯克还强调特斯拉目前主要阻碍在供应而不是需求方面，并希望降低特斯拉汽车的价格。相比于上季度公布财报后盘后股价大幅度拉升，市场对于特斯拉Q2业绩明显存在分歧，公布财报后股价盘后一度涨超4%，但此后走弱，一度下跌超0.6%，最终以1.51%涨幅结束美股盘后交易。一部分投资者认为Q2业绩以及特斯拉管理层给出的的乐观预期，足以提振之前因美联储大幅加息预期而遭遇“杀估值”的低迷股价，也有投资者认为加息周期下特斯拉的业绩无法匹配当前高估值。由于Q2交付量因供应链和新冠疫情难题而出现下滑，以及储能单项业务意外出现下滑等影响因素，特斯拉Q2总营收勉强达到分析师们预期，但特斯拉仍然实现净利润以及调整后EPS大幅超预期。毛利率、营业利润率等多项核心指标虽保持在较高水平，但是均出现不同幅度下滑。特斯拉高层以及分析师们乐观的预期，仍然是一些特斯拉信仰者追随特斯拉的关键因素。“特斯拉神话”核心驱动力——交付量与汽车销售均现环比下滑按细分业务来看，汽车业务仍然是拉动特斯拉营收增长的绝对主力，从过去几年的业绩更可看出汽车业务所占营收比例极大。Q2特斯拉汽车业务(销售+租赁+监管信贷)营收达到146.02亿美元，同比增长87%，占总营收近9成比例。在汽车业务之中，汽车销售占比最大，本季度达到136.7亿美元，然而该项指标1年来首度出现环比下滑，反映的是特斯拉交付量出现环比下降。特斯拉Q2交付量为254,695辆，低于上季度创下的310,048辆这一历史记录，远低于华尔街预测的282,291辆，并且这一数字是华尔街数次下调之后的结果。这也反应出面临高通胀率、供应链难题以及新冠疫情等不利因素综合影响之下，即便强如特斯拉也难以置身事外。“环比下降”一词成Q2业绩“主角”特斯拉第二季总营收达到169.34亿美元，未能续创历史新高，不及Q1创下的历史纪录。调整后每股收益为2.27美元，远超分析师普遍预计的1.83美元，上一季度为3.22美元，较上年同期增长57%，但该指标2020年以来首次出现环比下滑。同时，特斯拉已连续六个季度营收超100亿美元大关。总营收较去年一季度同比增长42%，但较Q1明显下降，如前所述，交付量、总营收环比下滑及增速放缓反映出在高通胀率、供应链难题以及新冠疫情等重压之下，特斯拉不得不放慢增长的脚步，也不排除美元汇率上行带来的负面影响。从销售成本率走势图能看出特斯拉近几年在成本端下足了功夫，坚持花较少的支出创造最大的价值，近几年努力将该指标控制在70%-80%区间。特斯拉第二季度销售成本率约为74%，高于上季度，但略低于去年同期水平。在第二季度通胀率刺激劳动力成本与原材料高企以及供应链受阻的背景之下，在控制销售成本方面，特斯拉第二季度可以说是“相当节俭”。毛利率往往是特斯拉众多业绩指标中惊艳市场的重要数据。GAAP准则下特斯拉整体毛利率达到25%高于市场预期，但不及上季度创下的高点，较去年同期高出近89个基点。在2022年，马斯克曾多次表示特斯拉面临通胀压力，主要来自原材料和物流方面，不过特斯拉强势的定价权使得公司可以将成本压力转移给消费者，助力毛利率稳定在相对较高水平。毛利率是反应企业盈利能力的最直观数据之一，虽然相比于Q1有所下滑，但多数分析师认为特斯拉仍然是当前主流电动汽车企业中盈利能力最强的车企。相比之下，特斯拉毛利率仍然“艳煞”众车企。传统造车巨头大众汽车和戴姆勒奔驰毛利率常年徘徊在20%上下水平，其中戴姆勒近几个季度最高达24%，但是难以跨过25%大关。北美造车巨头福特(F.US)和通用汽车(GM.US)则常年在15%左右水平徘徊，而Lucid(LCID.US)和Rivian(RIVN.US)等造车新贵们仍停留在负区间。营业利润率往往是反应企业经营能力的重要指标之一，GAAP准则下特斯拉Q1营业利润率达到14.6%，不及Q1创下的历史新高，但相较于去年同期上升358个基点。在通胀压力下，第二季度特斯拉在销售行政以及研发等营业费用方面较为节省，特斯拉Q2营业支出为17.7亿美元，较上年同期上升13%，但低于上季度的18.57亿美元。有分析人士认为，特斯拉营业利润率已经完全超越一些传统车企，证明了电动汽车完全可以具备相较于燃油车，甚至一些传统制造型企业来说更强大的盈利能力。特斯拉第二季度GAAP准则下净利润为22.59亿美元超市场预期，同比增幅达98%。在净利润强劲增长的带动之下，特斯拉Q1净利率仍然处于较高水平，达到13%。该指标自实现“上岸”(即高于0)以来持续上升，近几个季度均处于高点附近，但第二季度在通胀及供应链等重压下难以再创新高。这一数据对于特斯拉这样一家需要耗费大量支出的造车企业来说实属不易，汽车制造业属于重资产行列，生产前所需投入的各项成本往往非常高，这也是为什么多数造车新贵们前几年，甚至将近10年难以实现获利的重要原因。为了升级未来产能，特斯拉于 3 月在德国柏林开设了一家新工厂，紧随其后的是 4 月在得克萨斯州奥斯汀开设的另一家工厂。这些是特斯拉开启下一阶段产量增长的关键，但两家工厂自开业以来产能爬坡面临重重困难。产能爬坡时期往往需耗费大量开支，叠加通胀压力难以缓解，后续特斯拉净利率有可能再度受到冲击。在现金流方面，特斯拉Q2经营活动产生的现金流净额为23.51亿美元，同比增幅达到11%，占总营收比重为14%，远不及第一季度21%这一高水平。另外，特斯拉Q2自由现金流达到6.21亿美元超出分析师预期，在加密货币抛售潮以及新工厂耗资巨大的压力下，仍然实现了相对乐观的自由现金流水平。但需要注意的是，第二季度特斯拉将75%比特币头寸转换为法定货币，这一转换使得特斯拉资产负债表的现金增加了9.36亿美元。若剔除这部分现金，特斯拉第二季度的自由现金流即由正转负。对于特斯拉这样的重资产造车企业来说，需要耗费大量支出维持日常经营以及产能爬坡，因此维持较高比例的经营现金流实属不易，加之特斯拉如今面临通胀压力及供应链中断，该比例自然难以维系在较高水平。这一比例越高，往往意味着企业有更多资金用于研发等支出，进而不断提高自身竞争力。前景乐观信号：原材料和需求马斯克和其他高管在业绩会议上均表示大宗商品价格正在走低，今年马斯克曾多次表示特斯拉面临原材料压力，若这些价格出现下滑，对于特斯拉来说无疑是利好消息。特斯拉Q2成本压力激增，以及毛利率、净利率等指标出现下滑，很大程度上是因为铝、镍以及锂原材料持续上涨，近期在经济增长放缓预期下，近期不少金属价格都出现了回落。除了马斯克，不少分析师也认为大宗商品价格即将开启下行通道，新加坡银行固收研究主管Todd Schubert表示：“大宗商品价格上涨给新兴市场带来的繁荣已经接近尾声。经济严重衰退的风险不断上升，这将进一步削弱对大量大宗商品的需求。”Natwest Markets新兴市场外汇策略师Galvin Chia表示：“全球经济增长放缓和全球通胀可能见顶的趋势似乎将继续打压大宗商品市场。”在特斯拉业绩新闻稿中，特斯拉继续维持年交付量增速50%的目标。来自华尔街金融机构Wedbush的知名科技股分析师Dan Ives在特斯拉财报公布前几日曾强调，50%的交付量增长水平或将强化围绕该股展开的电动汽车长期需求的积极观点。可以看出，马斯克以及分析师们对于未来的信心无疑来自乐观的需求预期，根据市场调研机构Next Move Strategy Consulting公布的统计与预测数据，预计到2030年电池电动汽车市场规模将达到2121.6亿美元，2020-2030年复合增速(CAGR)约为14%。Mordor Intelligence公布的预测数据显示，该机构预计电动汽车市场规模在2027年将达到13933.3亿美元，CAGR高达19.19%。与Next Move统计标的有所不同，Mordor Intelligence统计的电动汽车标的包含电池电动汽车、插电式电动汽车、燃料电池电动汽车和混合动力电动汽车类别。Next Move与Mordor Intelligence在报告中均指出，从长远角度来看，燃料成本增加以及不同国家政府为提高电动汽车普及率而采取的举措等因素预计将在预测期内促进电动汽车的使用。Mordor Intelligence还指出，市场对节油、高性能和低排放汽车的需求激增，以及汽车排放法规日益严格，电池成本降低和燃料成本上升，这些都有助于电动汽车市场持续增长。多空势力较量未完待续从盘后交易能够看出，多头与空头们上演了一出激烈较量，最终多头势力占据上风。类似的剧情在今年剩余时间或将多次上演，多头们看好特斯拉交付量预期以及未来业绩增长预期，马斯克“画大饼”，以及“估值过高”则是空头们在美联储激进加息周期下不看好特斯拉股价走势的重要原因。即使经历了长达6个月的“杀估值”浪潮，相对于全球行业估值水平来说，特斯拉目前估值仍然相对较高，在今年剩余时间，若高通胀和供应链问题难以缓解甚至愈演愈烈，叠加美联储加息周期，特斯拉下半年业绩可能不如预期那般乐观，届时或将再度面临大规模抛售。华尔街对于特斯拉股价走势仍持乐观态度，分析师们平均预测股价高达906美元。在特斯拉业绩公布后，金融机构CFRA Research火速将特斯拉目标价上调至1125美元，并大幅上调2022-2024年每股收益预期，并强调投资者应将重点放在2022年下半年破纪录的目标上，该机构重申对特斯拉的“强力买入”评级。多头们期待看到2020-2021年11月这波教科书式“主升浪”行情再度上演，然而，实现这一趋势并不容易，不仅需要特斯拉高层对于未来增长的乐观预期，更需要强劲的业绩增长证明股价符合市场给予的高估值，进而说服更多投资者。然而，在美联储激进加息，以及高通胀等压力下，“业绩+股价”齐升不可能一蹴而就，中间必然将经历一番波折。“下降”一词在第二季度业绩报告中首度频繁出现，因此特斯拉的“增长神话”面临一些投资者的质疑，对于一些较谨慎的投资者来说更是非常不好的信号——美联储加息重压下，“衰退”还停留在预期层面，若衰退真的来临，特斯拉业绩表现会不会更加悲观?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683186862,"gmtCreate":1656062045483,"gmtModify":1704864022872,"author":{"id":"3457741238547821","authorId":"3457741238547821","name":"Tesla_Wang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2922431c9ce275b71c1f5d869a5af516","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3457741238547821","authorIdStr":"3457741238547821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>还没有小鹏，理想保值，真是太阳出西边出来了[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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