一辉舜的个人主页 - 老虎社区

一辉舜

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IP属地：广东

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5粉丝

2主题

0勋章

2022-07-23

$Bit Digital, Inc.(BTBT)$还不错

2022-02-04

可以吗有谁持有吗

2021-11-15

$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$看看还可以吗

2021-10-08

$Aemetis Inc(AMTX)$应该还不错

2021-10-07

$Aemetis Inc(AMTX)$这个应该还可以

2021-10-07

$Gevo Inc.(GEVO)$可以进吗

2021-09-03

$Aemetis Inc(AMTX)$回不了本啊

2021-08-10

大家觉得可以吗

2021-08-08

大家一起探讨

2021-06-23

可以吗，大家参考一下

2021-04-28

会回来的，不怕不怕

2021-03-16

$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$输死了

2021-03-09

大家觉得会跌到那里

2021-03-06

大家看看

云图控股(002539.SZ)斥资1.2亿元累计回购1604.14万股

2021-03-06

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$有够惨

2021-03-06

$360数科(QFIN)$记得要做空

2021-03-05

$乐信(LX)$大家，要做空，

2021-03-04

这个现在还不可以买

2021-03-02

够便宜，自己想

2021-02-25

$斗鱼(DOYU)$被套死了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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20:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"罗杰斯：美股涨势或持续至11月大选时，但总清算将更惨烈","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117172368","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"近几年来，传奇投资人罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）曾经多次预言过美股，乃至全球股市将发生一生仅见的大崩盘，而眼下的现实恰好印证了他的这一预测。为了解罗杰斯对当前局面的看法，以及最新的预测，美国财经媒体","content":"<p>近几年来，传奇投资人罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）曾经多次预言过美股，乃至全球股市将发生一生仅见的大崩盘，而眼下的现实恰好印证了他的这一预测。为了解罗杰斯对当前局面的看法，以及最新的预测，美国财经媒体Business Insider对他进行了专访。</p>\n<p>在罗杰斯看来，在美国政府美联储的刺激方案，乃至全球印钞机的疯狂开动之下，美股当前的涨势完全有可能一直延续到11月大选之时，但那终归只是引鸩止渴，只能让最终的清算变得更加惨烈。罗杰斯指出，其实美国政府和“绝对是疯了”的美联储目前的应对，都是基于特朗普11月连任的目标的超级短期行为，已经顾不上之后会付出怎样更可怕的代价了。</p>\n<p>罗杰斯认为，当下的应变政策，或者更整体来说，2008年金融危机以来，以美联储为代表的全球各大央行的政策，以及其背后的现代货币理论简直是荒谬绝伦，完全是在透支明天。一百年前，英国曾经是世界上最富有和最强大的国家，但是他们步入歧途，大手大脚花钱，大胆举债，结果就此走向了没落，而今天的美国其实正在步当年英国的后尘。他说，这让自己不能不为美国的孩子们，以及子子孙孙的未来深感忧虑。</p>\n<p>谈到目前的投资选择时，罗杰斯披露上周刚刚买进了一些中国酒类企业和俄罗斯交通运输业的股票，而已经下跌很多、同时政府不顾一切想要托举的日本股市也值得关注。</p>\n<p>罗杰斯目前是Rogers Holdings的董事长，因为当年与索罗斯（George Soros）共同创建量子基金（Quantum Fund），大获成功而名满天下。2017年，在接受Business Insider采访时，罗杰斯就预言说，几年之内他就将目睹一生当中所仅见的美股大崩盘。现在，面对当下的疫情危机，人们很自然就会想到他曾经的预言……</p>\n<p>问：我们几年前就曾经采访过你，当时你预言说很快就会上演我们一生仅见的大崩盘。当时你谈论的，或者说预见到的，就是当下这种局面吗？</p>\n<p>答：首先，我要说，人们会感到吃惊，这才是最让我吃惊的。2008年，我们出了那么严重的问题，是因为我们过度举债，而从那之后，债务其实在全球层面都越发高企了。因此，在我看来，将有怎样的结果是很容易想到的，下一次危机肯定会比2008年更严重，但是看上去，大家居然感到很吃惊……</p>\n<p>不管怎样，好吧，现在或许可以算是我的预言兑现了。我应该说，当下的涨势将是很美妙了，或者其实已经很美妙了。你也看到了，全球各国的政府都在印刷海量的钞票，花掉海量的钞票。今年11月还要举行大选，因此，这涨势将会是很美妙的。只不过，故事并不会就此结束，这不是真正的最终结局。</p>\n<p>问：在你看来，市场要跌到多低才能真正到达底部？</p>\n<p>答：事实上，我也不知道。历史会告诉你，熊市可能会跌50%、60%、70%，但那也只是历史，而不是某种理念，也不能排除还有许多股票可能会下跌80%、90%。熊市从来都是你看不透的。</p>\n<p>除非你是在做空之类，否则这对你一点都不好玩。这就是熊市。如果你还记得2008年的话，你会想起一些股票和企业最终遭受了怎样的命运，就连黄金，都在一段时间里跟着崩盘了。是的，有那么一阵子，万物皆崩。</p>\n<p>问：现在有许多投资者都忧心忡忡，不知如何配置自己的投资组合，你是否可以为他们提供一些建议？</p>\n<p>答：其实不单单是针对现在，我的建议是，任何投资者在任何时候，都应该只投资他们了解的东西。一切以你自己的知识为基础，不要听任何别人的。如果你是听了别人的推荐而投资，那么，出了状况你会处理吗？而且，他们错了怎么办？</p>\n<p>因此，你应该坚守自己的已知领域，在这里，你知道所有可能性该如何应对。如果你什么都不懂，那你最好什么都别投资。你应该把钱存进银行，看着别人胡闹赔钱，感觉其实也不错。</p>\n<p>问：你的意思是……</p>\n<p>答：谁的话也别听。如果你想要成为一个能够面对各种局面的全天候投资者，你就不能越出自己熟练掌握的范畴。</p>\n<p>问：你说我们这个世界已经过度杠杆化了。这在2008你就是一个大问题，后来我们不是采取了各种措施来针对过度杠杆化，来保护银行业吗？难道，局面在那之后反而变得更加糟糕了？</p>\n<p>答：是的，更糟糕了，而且是糟糕得多得多。事实就是，现在所有国家的债务都增加了，没有人再有什么未雨绸缪的积蓄。那我们遇到麻烦，该指望谁来拯救？难道指望复活节兔子？可是，不管从华盛顿，还是从伦敦或东京，你听到的消息都是，复活节兔子真的是万能的，所以你什么都不必担心。</p>\n<p>问：听起来确实很成问题。大家为什么就不知道害怕呢？看上去，似乎谁都不担心国家资产负债表的平衡问题。我们确实不该这样，可是，既然现实已经如此，那么后果将是怎样？</p>\n<p>答：其实历史给我们的教训再简单不过了。如果一个国家债务负担过于沉重，则迟早会周转不灵，最终走向衰落。<br>在1919年、1920年那时候，英国是世界上最富有、最强大的国家。结果他们做了什么？开始大手大脚花钱，最终债台高筑，现在连世界前五都不算了。他们自己犯下了太多错误，自己跌下了悬崖。</p>\n<p>这种错误太多国家都犯过。这不是什么观点，而是简单的历史事实。遗憾的是，历史给我们的最大教训之一，就是我们从不吸取教训。他们总是无视历史，不断重复完全一样的错误。</p>\n<p>问：你如何评价美联储面对当下危机的反应？</p>\n<p>答：绝对是疯了。我想破头也不知道他们为什么要这样做。如果是二三十年前，有人说一个负责任的央行可以这样做，其他人都会离开房间，拒绝和他讨论问题。可是，这样的事情就在我们的眼皮底下发生了，而所有人都只有坐着看的份儿……</p>\n<p>美联储的资产负债表在2008年之后膨胀了500%之多。这样一家重量级央行出现这样的情况，可以说是史无前例，而他们现在还要在这个基础上再翻一番。我只能说，这些家伙的脑子已经坏掉了。这简直是……我知道你有孩子，而且你自己实际上也还很年轻，所以，你们有充分的理由担心，担心孩子和自己的未来。我当然也为自己担心，但是我毕竟年纪很大了。我为世界上所有人担心——美联储已经疯掉了。</p>\n<p>问：你会希望美联储在局面好转后缩减自己的负债表，以及提高利率吗？</p>\n<p>答：首先，他们2009年一开始就不该那么做。他们自以为是，觉得那样的政策是在拯救世界。如果你趁他们不备时套话，他们将会说：“是的，其实一切都是实验。我们也不知道后果会怎样。我们只是希望这会有效而已。”</p>\n<p>现在，我们所有人都迟早要付出可怕的代价了。2008年时，美联储的资产负债表是8000亿美元，单位还是“亿”，而现在，大家的谈话动辄就已经是多少“万亿”了。</p>\n<p>这还只是问题的一部分……我要说的是，你的孩子、你自己，甚至包括我，我们都将在有生之年目睹美国落得英国曾经的结局。</p>\n<p>问：那么，美联储这些违反常理的做法，背后的动机到底是什么？如果这么做是错误的，他们为什么还要一意孤行？</p>\n<p>答：今年11月要举行大选。你还不知道他们为什么要这么做吗？</p>\n<p>更不必说，你难道不知道日本央行是怎么做的吗？他们每天都在尽可能快速地开动印钞机，然后去买进股票和债券。日本正在发生的一切和美国正在发生的一切一样，都很令人吃惊。可是，日本人自己吃惊吗？他们已经将这当作是央行工作，乃至于国家运转当中再正常不过的事情了。<br>问：美联储也扩充了自己的资产购买范围。你认为他们可能最终开始购买股票吗？</p>\n<p>答：绝对的。当然，你首先必须更改一些规则，但是我们都看到了，日本已经做到了。日本央行在购买股票，购买债券，购买ETF。日本的股票经纪商对现实非常满意。</p>\n<p>问：他们做这些就是为了确保市场不会沉入海底吗？或者说，他们的动机就是为了维持高股价吗？</p>\n<p>答：你可谓是一语中的。不过，日本央行不会承认，他们会说，我们是为了拯救日本，而美联储也会说，我们是为了拯救美国，为了我们的子子孙孙。</p>\n<p>事实上，他们正在埋葬子子孙孙的前途和命运。没办法，他们又不可能实话实说：“我们就是为了大选，就是为了争取选票。”</p>\n<p>问：作为投资者，你对这样的局面怎么看？比如说，估值可能已经高得离谱，但只要有美联储的安全网在，就不会有大乱子。现在，投资者到底该怎么做？</p>\n<p>答：这个问题，我刚才其实也谈到过。因为全球的央行们都在玩这个印钞游戏，所以股市的涨势还会持续下去。当然，迟早有一天，我们会走出这片钞票森林，但是至少现在，我们周围还有足够多的钞票树，所以我其实也不知道该怎么做。我的判断是，不管在美国、日本还是其他地方，涨势都还会持续一阵子。甚至，我们在迎来最终的大结局之前，局面还将再度泡沫化也说不定。</p>\n<p>不过，如果你仔细聆听，就会听到风中传来的警告，那个不祥的字眼——“现代货币理论”。事实就是，无论何时，只要危机到来，人们就会拿出最疯狂的点子。十年前他们对这样的想法会嗤之以鼻，但是现在却高高兴兴地在执行。好吧，现实就是，我们面对着一场重大危机，而且几个月后还要举行大选。</p>\n<p>问：现在你都在哪些领域寻找投资机会？</p>\n<p>答：我上周买进了一些中国酒类企业的股票，以及一些俄罗斯运输公司的股票。</p>\n<p>我现在也在考虑买进日本股票的可能性。日本故事毕竟已经下跌了很多了，而日本政府和央行现在满心想的都只是让股市涨回去，所以，涨回去确实是大概率事件。当然，正如前面所强调的，这一切对于日本的孩子们绝对是坏消息，但是当权者在乎吗？他们想做什么还是会去做的。</p>\n<p>问：那么美国呢？美国股市需要下跌多少，才会出现你愿意考虑的买进机会？</p>\n<p>答：我真的没有线索。我只能说，一切都要看我到底发现了什么，看到了什么，如果合适，也许今晚就可能买进。</p>\n<p>一部分航空公司，一部分交通运输公司，一部分旅行、餐饮、酒店等等。由于市场的深度忧虑，这些股票当中颇有不少已经跌到近乎被完全抹杀。如果我不是太懒惰，现在我可能已经找到了一些合适的投资对象了。</p>\n<p>问：你的意思是，长期角度看，旅行相关股票总是会卷土重来的？</p>\n<p>答：看看外面，现在大家几乎都不坐公交车，也不坐轮渡了，但不会一直这样下去。我敢打赌，你总有一天会再度做飞机旅行的。大多数航空公司都会继续存在。当然，现在不乏少数航空公司已经陷入了破产，但是整体而言，多数都会生存下去。</p>\n<p>问：你前面提到了现代货币理论，后者本质上认为，不管一家央行的资产负债表膨胀到怎样的地步都没有关系。似乎，你并不同意这样的观点。你是怎么看的？</p>\n<p>答：是的，他们就是这么说的。他们说一切都没有必要担心。一国政府甚至都不必发行债券，只管不停印钞……事实上，现在日本就是这么干的，开动印钞机，然后去买股票。他们已经完全改写了本国的规则。他们以前一直在买进ETF和债券，现在干脆买股票了。</p>\n<p>问：人们对你的看法，最根本的误解在哪里？</p>\n<p>答：世上没有白来的午餐，你迟早有一天还是要埋单的。这本应该是常识才对。事实上，完全可以说，我们迟早都将被迫像2009年那样付出代价。</p>\n<p>这些家伙总是说：“我们会试一试。我们也不知道这措施是否有效，但是我们愿意去试一下。”事实就是，他们当年的做法其实是让问题进一步恶化了，而现在他们又在再恶化、再再恶化局面……我的年纪不是白长的，我清楚地知道，免费午餐是不存在的。</p>\n<p>问：你谈到了我的孩子，以及日本的孩子们。你到底为他们担心什么？比如你认为二十年后的世界会变成什么样子？</p>\n<p>答：比如，我们可以将1919年的英国和2019年的英国比较一下，这就是个很好的例子。历史上还有许多其他的类似例子。最终，人们迟早要付出代价。现代货币理论信徒宣称没有什么好担心的，但该发生的事情迟早要发生。</p>\n<p>事实就是，印钞票的魔术不可能永远变下去。印钞机一直这么疯转着，但是总有一天，会有人说：“等等，我再也不想玩这个游戏了。”其实大家都该明白这个简单的道理。你去过津巴布韦吗？</p>\n<p>问：你去过津巴布韦么？</p>\n<p>答：目前为止还没有去过，津巴布韦在非洲，本是个很不错的国家，但是已经被彻底破坏了。总之，如果你只需要不停印钞就可以达到一切目的，那么津巴布韦早就统治全世界了。</p>\n<p>问：那么从你的视角看，美国的财政刺激计划以及援助计划该如何评价？</p>\n<p>答：我的评价是，处方比疾病还要命。11月的大选是他们最看重的，至于大选后会怎么样，他们一点都不在乎。他们就是想要赢得选举，一切行动都是围绕这一点展开的。他们的工作就是这个。政治家就是以成败论英雄的，为了当选他们不择手段，谁会在乎你我的孩子们呢？</p>\n<p>在我看来，他们正在做的事情都非常符合他们自己的利益，但是不符合其他的人，也就是我们的利益。就像曾经的英国那样，我们都将付出可怕的代价。回顾历史，有太多成功的国家后来走上了歧途的例子。</p>\n<p>问：如果让你来为美国来设计疫情危机加经济危机之下的应对方案，你会怎么去做？</p>\n<p>答：我会废除美联储，然后自己辞职。我必须辞职，甚至可能会被暗杀或者放逐。这是因为，我不会去疯狂印钞，我会让自然规律……</p>\n<p>其实，2009年我们也遭遇过一种可怕的病毒，H1N1甲型流感。当时疫情是从美国开始的，只不过没有人将其称为“美国流感”而已。当时，我们没有关闭麦当劳，也没有海量印钞。我要说的是，人类社会从诞生之初，各种大规模传染病就一直是我们的常客，比如2003年可怕的SARS，世界当时并没有因此而封闭、停摆，当然原因我也不能确定。也许是因为当时的政治家和媒体能够搞掂该搞掂的一切？</p>\n<p>总之，这样的事情以前发生过。2009年麦当劳没有关闭。达美航空也还在继续飞行，而且疫情主要集中在美国，对世界其他地方损害有限。</p>\n<p>人类世界已经演进了不知多少年。人类有很强的应变能力，但是这么做，显然不利于政治家在11月胜选，因此我的想法显然不适合现在这个时间点。是的，对于股市、对于股市投资者而言，现在的政策应对是好消息。我们现在完全有理由移民日本，去做股票经纪人，因为日本央行的政策对他们太有利了。美国的股票投资者也喜欢美联储正在做的事情，只不过，我不能不为比我年轻的你，为我们的孩子们感到担心。</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-14 20:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RnoR5M-7dYBP5_cAwJnP8w><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近几年来，传奇投资人罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）曾经多次预言过美股，乃至全球股市将发生一生仅见的大崩盘，而眼下的现实恰好印证了他的这一预测。为了解罗杰斯对当前局面的看法，以及最新的预测，美国财经媒体Business Insider对他进行了专访。\n在罗杰斯看来，在美国政府美联储的刺激方案，乃至全球印钞机的疯狂开动之下，美股当前的涨势完全有可能一直延续到11月大选之时，但那终归只是引鸩止渴，只能让...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RnoR5M-7dYBP5_cAwJnP8w\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d6a4572b675796b315e560ea7fe3401","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RnoR5M-7dYBP5_cAwJnP8w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117172368","content_text":"近几年来，传奇投资人罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）曾经多次预言过美股，乃至全球股市将发生一生仅见的大崩盘，而眼下的现实恰好印证了他的这一预测。为了解罗杰斯对当前局面的看法，以及最新的预测，美国财经媒体Business Insider对他进行了专访。\n在罗杰斯看来，在美国政府美联储的刺激方案，乃至全球印钞机的疯狂开动之下，美股当前的涨势完全有可能一直延续到11月大选之时，但那终归只是引鸩止渴，只能让最终的清算变得更加惨烈。罗杰斯指出，其实美国政府和“绝对是疯了”的美联储目前的应对，都是基于特朗普11月连任的目标的超级短期行为，已经顾不上之后会付出怎样更可怕的代价了。\n罗杰斯认为，当下的应变政策，或者更整体来说，2008年金融危机以来，以美联储为代表的全球各大央行的政策，以及其背后的现代货币理论简直是荒谬绝伦，完全是在透支明天。一百年前，英国曾经是世界上最富有和最强大的国家，但是他们步入歧途，大手大脚花钱，大胆举债，结果就此走向了没落，而今天的美国其实正在步当年英国的后尘。他说，这让自己不能不为美国的孩子们，以及子子孙孙的未来深感忧虑。\n谈到目前的投资选择时，罗杰斯披露上周刚刚买进了一些中国酒类企业和俄罗斯交通运输业的股票，而已经下跌很多、同时政府不顾一切想要托举的日本股市也值得关注。\n罗杰斯目前是Rogers Holdings的董事长，因为当年与索罗斯（George Soros）共同创建量子基金（Quantum Fund），大获成功而名满天下。2017年，在接受Business Insider采访时，罗杰斯就预言说，几年之内他就将目睹一生当中所仅见的美股大崩盘。现在，面对当下的疫情危机，人们很自然就会想到他曾经的预言……\n问：我们几年前就曾经采访过你，当时你预言说很快就会上演我们一生仅见的大崩盘。当时你谈论的，或者说预见到的，就是当下这种局面吗？\n答：首先，我要说，人们会感到吃惊，这才是最让我吃惊的。2008年，我们出了那么严重的问题，是因为我们过度举债，而从那之后，债务其实在全球层面都越发高企了。因此，在我看来，将有怎样的结果是很容易想到的，下一次危机肯定会比2008年更严重，但是看上去，大家居然感到很吃惊……\n不管怎样，好吧，现在或许可以算是我的预言兑现了。我应该说，当下的涨势将是很美妙了，或者其实已经很美妙了。你也看到了，全球各国的政府都在印刷海量的钞票，花掉海量的钞票。今年11月还要举行大选，因此，这涨势将会是很美妙的。只不过，故事并不会就此结束，这不是真正的最终结局。\n问：在你看来，市场要跌到多低才能真正到达底部？\n答：事实上，我也不知道。历史会告诉你，熊市可能会跌50%、60%、70%，但那也只是历史，而不是某种理念，也不能排除还有许多股票可能会下跌80%、90%。熊市从来都是你看不透的。\n除非你是在做空之类，否则这对你一点都不好玩。这就是熊市。如果你还记得2008年的话，你会想起一些股票和企业最终遭受了怎样的命运，就连黄金，都在一段时间里跟着崩盘了。是的，有那么一阵子，万物皆崩。\n问：现在有许多投资者都忧心忡忡，不知如何配置自己的投资组合，你是否可以为他们提供一些建议？\n答：其实不单单是针对现在，我的建议是，任何投资者在任何时候，都应该只投资他们了解的东西。一切以你自己的知识为基础，不要听任何别人的。如果你是听了别人的推荐而投资，那么，出了状况你会处理吗？而且，他们错了怎么办？\n因此，你应该坚守自己的已知领域，在这里，你知道所有可能性该如何应对。如果你什么都不懂，那你最好什么都别投资。你应该把钱存进银行，看着别人胡闹赔钱，感觉其实也不错。\n问：你的意思是……\n答：谁的话也别听。如果你想要成为一个能够面对各种局面的全天候投资者，你就不能越出自己熟练掌握的范畴。\n问：你说我们这个世界已经过度杠杆化了。这在2008你就是一个大问题，后来我们不是采取了各种措施来针对过度杠杆化，来保护银行业吗？难道，局面在那之后反而变得更加糟糕了？\n答：是的，更糟糕了，而且是糟糕得多得多。事实就是，现在所有国家的债务都增加了，没有人再有什么未雨绸缪的积蓄。那我们遇到麻烦，该指望谁来拯救？难道指望复活节兔子？可是，不管从华盛顿，还是从伦敦或东京，你听到的消息都是，复活节兔子真的是万能的，所以你什么都不必担心。\n问：听起来确实很成问题。大家为什么就不知道害怕呢？看上去，似乎谁都不担心国家资产负债表的平衡问题。我们确实不该这样，可是，既然现实已经如此，那么后果将是怎样？\n答：其实历史给我们的教训再简单不过了。如果一个国家债务负担过于沉重，则迟早会周转不灵，最终走向衰落。在1919年、1920年那时候，英国是世界上最富有、最强大的国家。结果他们做了什么？开始大手大脚花钱，最终债台高筑，现在连世界前五都不算了。他们自己犯下了太多错误，自己跌下了悬崖。\n这种错误太多国家都犯过。这不是什么观点，而是简单的历史事实。遗憾的是，历史给我们的最大教训之一，就是我们从不吸取教训。他们总是无视历史，不断重复完全一样的错误。\n问：你如何评价美联储面对当下危机的反应？\n答：绝对是疯了。我想破头也不知道他们为什么要这样做。如果是二三十年前，有人说一个负责任的央行可以这样做，其他人都会离开房间，拒绝和他讨论问题。可是，这样的事情就在我们的眼皮底下发生了，而所有人都只有坐着看的份儿……\n美联储的资产负债表在2008年之后膨胀了500%之多。这样一家重量级央行出现这样的情况，可以说是史无前例，而他们现在还要在这个基础上再翻一番。我只能说，这些家伙的脑子已经坏掉了。这简直是……我知道你有孩子，而且你自己实际上也还很年轻，所以，你们有充分的理由担心，担心孩子和自己的未来。我当然也为自己担心，但是我毕竟年纪很大了。我为世界上所有人担心——美联储已经疯掉了。\n问：你会希望美联储在局面好转后缩减自己的负债表，以及提高利率吗？\n答：首先，他们2009年一开始就不该那么做。他们自以为是，觉得那样的政策是在拯救世界。如果你趁他们不备时套话，他们将会说：“是的，其实一切都是实验。我们也不知道后果会怎样。我们只是希望这会有效而已。”\n现在，我们所有人都迟早要付出可怕的代价了。2008年时，美联储的资产负债表是8000亿美元，单位还是“亿”，而现在，大家的谈话动辄就已经是多少“万亿”了。\n这还只是问题的一部分……我要说的是，你的孩子、你自己，甚至包括我，我们都将在有生之年目睹美国落得英国曾经的结局。\n问：那么，美联储这些违反常理的做法，背后的动机到底是什么？如果这么做是错误的，他们为什么还要一意孤行？\n答：今年11月要举行大选。你还不知道他们为什么要这么做吗？\n更不必说，你难道不知道日本央行是怎么做的吗？他们每天都在尽可能快速地开动印钞机，然后去买进股票和债券。日本正在发生的一切和美国正在发生的一切一样，都很令人吃惊。可是，日本人自己吃惊吗？他们已经将这当作是央行工作，乃至于国家运转当中再正常不过的事情了。问：美联储也扩充了自己的资产购买范围。你认为他们可能最终开始购买股票吗？\n答：绝对的。当然，你首先必须更改一些规则，但是我们都看到了，日本已经做到了。日本央行在购买股票，购买债券，购买ETF。日本的股票经纪商对现实非常满意。\n问：他们做这些就是为了确保市场不会沉入海底吗？或者说，他们的动机就是为了维持高股价吗？\n答：你可谓是一语中的。不过，日本央行不会承认，他们会说，我们是为了拯救日本，而美联储也会说，我们是为了拯救美国，为了我们的子子孙孙。\n事实上，他们正在埋葬子子孙孙的前途和命运。没办法，他们又不可能实话实说：“我们就是为了大选，就是为了争取选票。”\n问：作为投资者，你对这样的局面怎么看？比如说，估值可能已经高得离谱，但只要有美联储的安全网在，就不会有大乱子。现在，投资者到底该怎么做？\n答：这个问题，我刚才其实也谈到过。因为全球的央行们都在玩这个印钞游戏，所以股市的涨势还会持续下去。当然，迟早有一天，我们会走出这片钞票森林，但是至少现在，我们周围还有足够多的钞票树，所以我其实也不知道该怎么做。我的判断是，不管在美国、日本还是其他地方，涨势都还会持续一阵子。甚至，我们在迎来最终的大结局之前，局面还将再度泡沫化也说不定。\n不过，如果你仔细聆听，就会听到风中传来的警告，那个不祥的字眼——“现代货币理论”。事实就是，无论何时，只要危机到来，人们就会拿出最疯狂的点子。十年前他们对这样的想法会嗤之以鼻，但是现在却高高兴兴地在执行。好吧，现实就是，我们面对着一场重大危机，而且几个月后还要举行大选。\n问：现在你都在哪些领域寻找投资机会？\n答：我上周买进了一些中国酒类企业的股票，以及一些俄罗斯运输公司的股票。\n我现在也在考虑买进日本股票的可能性。日本故事毕竟已经下跌了很多了，而日本政府和央行现在满心想的都只是让股市涨回去，所以，涨回去确实是大概率事件。当然，正如前面所强调的，这一切对于日本的孩子们绝对是坏消息，但是当权者在乎吗？他们想做什么还是会去做的。\n问：那么美国呢？美国股市需要下跌多少，才会出现你愿意考虑的买进机会？\n答：我真的没有线索。我只能说，一切都要看我到底发现了什么，看到了什么，如果合适，也许今晚就可能买进。\n一部分航空公司，一部分交通运输公司，一部分旅行、餐饮、酒店等等。由于市场的深度忧虑，这些股票当中颇有不少已经跌到近乎被完全抹杀。如果我不是太懒惰，现在我可能已经找到了一些合适的投资对象了。\n问：你的意思是，长期角度看，旅行相关股票总是会卷土重来的？\n答：看看外面，现在大家几乎都不坐公交车，也不坐轮渡了，但不会一直这样下去。我敢打赌，你总有一天会再度做飞机旅行的。大多数航空公司都会继续存在。当然，现在不乏少数航空公司已经陷入了破产，但是整体而言，多数都会生存下去。\n问：你前面提到了现代货币理论，后者本质上认为，不管一家央行的资产负债表膨胀到怎样的地步都没有关系。似乎，你并不同意这样的观点。你是怎么看的？\n答：是的，他们就是这么说的。他们说一切都没有必要担心。一国政府甚至都不必发行债券，只管不停印钞……事实上，现在日本就是这么干的，开动印钞机，然后去买股票。他们已经完全改写了本国的规则。他们以前一直在买进ETF和债券，现在干脆买股票了。\n问：人们对你的看法，最根本的误解在哪里？\n答：世上没有白来的午餐，你迟早有一天还是要埋单的。这本应该是常识才对。事实上，完全可以说，我们迟早都将被迫像2009年那样付出代价。\n这些家伙总是说：“我们会试一试。我们也不知道这措施是否有效，但是我们愿意去试一下。”事实就是，他们当年的做法其实是让问题进一步恶化了，而现在他们又在再恶化、再再恶化局面……我的年纪不是白长的，我清楚地知道，免费午餐是不存在的。\n问：你谈到了我的孩子，以及日本的孩子们。你到底为他们担心什么？比如你认为二十年后的世界会变成什么样子？\n答：比如，我们可以将1919年的英国和2019年的英国比较一下，这就是个很好的例子。历史上还有许多其他的类似例子。最终，人们迟早要付出代价。现代货币理论信徒宣称没有什么好担心的，但该发生的事情迟早要发生。\n事实就是，印钞票的魔术不可能永远变下去。印钞机一直这么疯转着，但是总有一天，会有人说：“等等，我再也不想玩这个游戏了。”其实大家都该明白这个简单的道理。你去过津巴布韦吗？\n问：你去过津巴布韦么？\n答：目前为止还没有去过，津巴布韦在非洲，本是个很不错的国家，但是已经被彻底破坏了。总之，如果你只需要不停印钞就可以达到一切目的，那么津巴布韦早就统治全世界了。\n问：那么从你的视角看，美国的财政刺激计划以及援助计划该如何评价？\n答：我的评价是，处方比疾病还要命。11月的大选是他们最看重的，至于大选后会怎么样，他们一点都不在乎。他们就是想要赢得选举，一切行动都是围绕这一点展开的。他们的工作就是这个。政治家就是以成败论英雄的，为了当选他们不择手段，谁会在乎你我的孩子们呢？\n在我看来，他们正在做的事情都非常符合他们自己的利益，但是不符合其他的人，也就是我们的利益。就像曾经的英国那样，我们都将付出可怕的代价。回顾历史，有太多成功的国家后来走上了歧途的例子。\n问：如果让你来为美国来设计疫情危机加经济危机之下的应对方案，你会怎么去做？\n答：我会废除美联储，然后自己辞职。我必须辞职，甚至可能会被暗杀或者放逐。这是因为，我不会去疯狂印钞，我会让自然规律……\n其实，2009年我们也遭遇过一种可怕的病毒，H1N1甲型流感。当时疫情是从美国开始的，只不过没有人将其称为“美国流感”而已。当时，我们没有关闭麦当劳，也没有海量印钞。我要说的是，人类社会从诞生之初，各种大规模传染病就一直是我们的常客，比如2003年可怕的SARS，世界当时并没有因此而封闭、停摆，当然原因我也不能确定。也许是因为当时的政治家和媒体能够搞掂该搞掂的一切？\n总之，这样的事情以前发生过。2009年麦当劳没有关闭。达美航空也还在继续飞行，而且疫情主要集中在美国，对世界其他地方损害有限。\n人类世界已经演进了不知多少年。人类有很强的应变能力，但是这么做，显然不利于政治家在11月胜选，因此我的想法显然不适合现在这个时间点。是的，对于股市、对于股市投资者而言，现在的政策应对是好消息。我们现在完全有理由移民日本，去做股票经纪人，因为日本央行的政策对他们太有利了。美国的股票投资者也喜欢美联储正在做的事情，只不过，我不能不为比我年轻的你，为我们的孩子们感到担心。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"a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