有股以后的个人主页 - 老虎社区

有股以后

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IP属地：北京

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2023-12-06

$拼多多(PDD)$ http://seekingbeststock.com 用这个网站查了下，拼多多还得涨啊…牛逼

2023-11-28

$好未来(TAL)$ http://seekingbeststock.com 用这个网站查了下，还得涨啊

2023-10-29

每次财报超预期，股价就拉胯

2022-07-26

哈哈

@卖完睡觉:$趣店(QD)$ 和戏子为伍，被反噬了吧。‌[开心] ‌‌[开心] ‌‌[开心] ‌

2022-07-26

$好未来(TAL)$天眼查App显示，近期，北京学而思教育科技有限公司申请注册多个“学思心选”“晓思严选”“学思优选”“小思心选”商标，国际分类包括广告销售、教育娱乐、办公用品等，当前商标状态均为“等待实质审查”。此前，学而思已经开始开启直播大赛和带货主播招聘流程，为加码直播做准备。

2022-07-19

$趣店(QD)$罗老板这么软吗？

2022-07-18

$趣店(QD)$3块见

2022-07-05

$途牛(TOUR)$赶紧冲2块吧

2022-07-01

$途牛(TOUR)$继续涨，目标2块

2022-06-28

$途牛(TOUR)$冲进去玩玩

2021-02-18

$老虎证券(TIGR)$$百度(BIDU)$$360数科(QFIN)$我也来晒晒图

2021-02-16

$快手-W(01024)$空啊，跌到300

2021-02-10

$快手-W(01024)$这么高估值没人做空吗…？

2020-12-18

夯实移动基础，决胜AI时代，就是陆奇提出来的

百度，不要把得意写在脸上

2020-12-17

$老虎证券(TIGR)$每天盘前涨，盘后跌，是不是过分了

2020-11-30

$360数科(QFIN)$每年收入百亿，盈利几十亿，市盈率不到5，每天跌真看不懂？？？

2020-11-30

$老虎证券(TIGR)$天天跌，好意思吗？

2020-11-27

$老虎证券(TIGR)$跌到啥时候涨？

2020-07-16

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 你们有遇到收益算错的情况吗？我这数学再差也算不出130啊

2020-07-16

$基因技术ADR(GENE)$ 老虎收益还能算错？这加起来明明不止130啊

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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牛逼，加杠杆了嘛"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382683896,"gmtCreate":1613441272815,"gmtModify":1613441272815,"author":{"id":"3456919738772946","authorId":"3456919738772946","name":"有股以后","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3456919738772946","authorIdStr":"3456919738772946"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a>空啊，跌到300","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a>这么高估值没人做空吗…？","text":"$快手-W(01024)$这么高估值没人做空吗…？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381988783","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3464240476932419","authorId":"3464240476932419","name":"快乐的小五","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebec98a83a1d65cb1b8bbadc9db6cfcd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3464240476932419","authorIdStr":"3464240476932419"},"content":"昨天空的，344，今天浮亏百分之6","text":"昨天空的，344，今天浮亏百分之6","html":"昨天空的，344，今天浮亏百分之6"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397596696,"gmtCreate":1608289904115,"gmtModify":1703852269737,"author":{"id":"3456919738772946","authorId":"3456919738772946","name":"有股以后","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3456919738772946","authorIdStr":"3456919738772946"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"夯实移动基础，决胜AI时代，就是陆奇提出来的","listText":"夯实移动基础，决胜AI时代，就是陆奇提出来的","text":"夯实移动基础，决胜AI时代，就是陆奇提出来的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397596696","repostId":"2092310391","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2092310391","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1608283512,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2092310391?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-18 17:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"百度，不要把得意写在脸上","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2092310391","media":"36氪","summary":"近日来关于百度股价大涨的分析不绝于道路。然后，开始有一点起色了，11月16日发布的百度2020年第三季度财报中，百度广告业务企稳，但得益于智能云业务收入攀升，核心非在线广告收入为29亿元， 同比增长14%。这么说的原因并不是百度的无人车小范围测试或者联合传统车企造车的传闻，因为这都不是很重要。","content":"<html><body><article><p>编者按：本文来自微信公众号“当下Tech”（ID:dengling40），作者：当下君，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36氪</a>经授权发布。</p><p>近日来关于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>股价大涨的分析不绝于道路。</p><p>核心无非是两点之争，现在的市值是之前的补涨？还是新业务的开拓价值被市场认可？</p><p>无论如何，对于百度人来说，这是一个比较愉快的事情，因为在此前，百度已经忍受了太久的横盘停滞。</p><p>那段时间里，百度什么都要忍耐，因为股价就像一个失灵的温度计，怎么加温就是不见水银柱的上涨。</p><p><strong>落子AI，全力发力自动驾驶生态，这种概念加持，如果换在一家新巨头可能早就暴涨，但百度不涨。</strong></p><p>小度音箱大卖，成为全球<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>音箱三强，这种硬业绩，百度也不怎么涨。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201218172525195v24607lh5xk0uyx\"/><p>未来学家的那句老话，在这里应该反过来说——<strong>人们总是高估百度的短期困难，却对其长期努力的价值给予低估。</strong></p><p>有些事情，放到历史的长度看，可能更有价值。</p><p>2010年-2015年，百度在寻找移动互联网的船票问题上，确实解决的不好。虽然<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>发明微信有一定偶然性，阿里发力手淘也是基于旧业务的移动化算不上根源性创新，但毕竟新的根基已经打造，但百度当时的战略过于跳脱，投入多个风口却又缺乏战略定力，浅尝辄止又匆匆推出，所以整个公司上下的气氛颇为浮躁。</p><p>2018年陆奇离开，业界哀声一片。公开的评价是：陆奇是能下好AI这盘大棋的，但和百度文化的不兼容让其过早离开。</p><p>到了后来，陆奇说过的ALL IN AI，似乎也被百度否定。</p><p>其实，陆奇说的ALL IN AI，和百度后来说“我们没有说过ALL IN AI”，都没错。</p><p>陆奇的ALL IN AI，不是一个严格意义上的战略表达，而是一个口号、一个方向，一种决心的显现。</p><p>百度后来说没有讲过ALL IN AI，是比较完整理性的表述，毕竟百度彼时的业务基石并不是AI，还有移动互联网的课要补、还有信息流的课要补，过早的说ALL IN AI，会给投资人一种错觉，会导致对百度估价的更大的偏移。</p><p>其实，2016年6月8日大理举行的百度联盟峰会上，李彦宏就在主题演讲《下一幕：人工智能》中，将AI确定为百度的公司级战略，只是没有说ALL IN。</p><p>陆奇走后，百度的核心战略，变成一句有点土味的“夯实移动基础，决胜AI时代”，但笔者认为，这是李彦宏头脑清醒的一个决定。</p><p>陆奇离开，方兴东博士写过一篇分析，那篇文章的部分观点，我是不太认同的，但里面唯独有一句话说的很好，极为精当，在此引述——</p><p>“把陆奇当百度的救世主，出发点就是错误的，早点离开反而更好。百度的问题，只有李彦宏自己的蜕变和醒悟，才能豁然开朗。”</p><p><strong>“夯实移动基础，决胜AI时代”</strong>就是这种醒悟的体现。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201218172526485v246u6n7lhl6dnk\"/><p>表现看上去，这句话提的时间的确有点晚，AT&amp;TMD都已经飞奔下一个时代去了，您还在这儿“夯实移动”，这个战略是不是太过时了？</p><p>正是因为如此，很多人觉得百度“未来太远 当下太惨”，也导致了自2018年开始，由于扛营收的搜索广告业务面临各种规范和调整，以及业务的自然老化，百度的股价严重超跌，跌到了一个不理性的低点，一个让百度人很堵心的低点。</p><p>但是，真实的情况就是，AI的确离收获期比较远，百度必须想方设法的保证现在的营收水准，只有这样才能维持住每年15%的研发投入，才能不在AI的价值得以现实性显现之前耗尽最后一滴血。</p><p>其实，李彦宏心里清楚，百度的价值没有那么低：</p><p><strong>——中国线上广告市场，信息流实现了对搜索的超越，但百度开始补课信息流，收入的良性替换在发生，而不是断崖式的恶性替换；</strong></p><p><strong>——对于需要主动获取信息的人来说，搜索和搜索广告的价值并没有那么低；</strong></p><p>有位名叫“坐上火箭的人”的媒体人，写文章讲过一个特精彩的段子：</p><p>当初张一鸣刚创业的时候，公司需要大量用到 Python，而那时 Python 这种语言还不怎么流行，因此，招人就特别不容易。张一鸣没有去拉勾这些垂直的招聘网站上去打广告。于是，张一鸣选择去百度买和Python相关的关键词广告，比如说Python里的一些函数，因为只有Python 的工程师才会去搜这些关键词，结果这些关键词很冷门、很便宜，这样有的放矢的招聘效果也很棒。</p><p>这里足以见得，<strong>搜索的价值远比人们想象的要大，虽然它听起来有点过时</strong>；</p><p>另外，经常被人诟病“无限跳转”的百度APP，也没有人们想象的那么不堪，它是微信和手淘之外中国为数不多的10亿级APP。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201218172527049v246h35wxzsmctv\"/><p>有很多人唱衰百度，完全基于对于PC搜索的没落。PC搜索可能是没落了，但仔细研究可以发现，百度的应用内（in-app）搜索现在已经占到整体移动搜索的一半以上，且 “手百” App已占到百度移动收入的一半以上了，其变现能力比网页端搜索更强、利润率更高，其中较有代表性的可能是百度的托管页业务。</p><p>于是，百度在悄然无声中完成了“夯实移动基础”，为继续“决胜AI”备足了粮草。</p><p><strong>所以，那段时间百度的真实状态是，忍得很辛苦，但心里并不怎么慌。</strong></p><p>现在看来，这种忍耐的回报逐渐显现，百度能够在一片唱衰声中保持持续的AI投入，来自于这种打落牙齿和血吞。</p><p>但为什么还不涨呢，其实，“夯实”后，百度股价依然疲软，归根结底还是投资人对百度新兴业务的想象力不足。正是因为无从想象，只好以广告业务的PE作为整体的PE来给百度估值，这样，百度的智能云业务、AI创新业务的真实价值都被低估了。</p><p>但也怪不得投资人，因为智能云业务和AI业务当时的确很难给出一个精确的估值。</p><p>包括很了解百度的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>，在某段时间内，也把云、AI、消费级智能业务、Apollo无人驾驶生态，总共估值到百度的15%，这是一个相当低的估值。</p><p>但是，现在的新趋势是，高盛、巴克莱等，都修正了估值的模型，开始为百度的云、Apollo等AI业务进行独立估值，我们不说这种估值是否准确，但可以肯定的是，这种方式朝更准确的计算百度的真实价值，又近了一步。</p><p>然后，开始有一点起色了，11月16日发布的百度2020年第三季度财报中，百度广告业务企稳，但得益于智能云业务收入攀升，核心非在线广告收入为29亿元， 同比增长14%。</p><p><strong>这是一个非常明确的信号，就是百度的新兴业务终于开始有商业化回报了。</strong></p><p>有人提出一个观点，AI业务中快速较快的百度云更适用于PS估值。因为，对于高速成长的业务，PS的估值方式更为合理。</p><p>P是股价，S是每股的销售收入，P/S或者用<span>总市值</span>除以销售额，这样算出的值叫PS，它的特点是，收入乘数对价格政策和企业战略变化敏感，可以反映这种快速变化的结果。</p><p>百度快速发展变化的主要包括智能云、智能交通、车联网等，它们都更适合PS估值。</p><p>接下来笔者要释放一个观点，那就是185美元的股价和600亿美元左右的估值，只是下一轮增长的起点，百度可能在未来一年到两年站上千亿美金市值，这个概率并不太低。</p><p>为什么这么说呢？有这样几个理由：</p><p>首先说，百度的无人驾驶业务，或者放大一点是智能交通生态，未来带来的增长可能是指数级的。</p><p>这么说的原因并不是百度的无人车小范围测试或者联合传统车企造车的传闻，因为这都不是很重要。</p><p>确定性事件是什么呢？<strong>是中国的汽车市场真正进入智能化竞争时代</strong>。</p><p>我们大概可以知道的是，今年上半年，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>的整体电动车出货量，压制住了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的单款；今年下半年，造车四小龙<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、理想、小鹏和威马全部进入3000-5000辆/月的主流销售区间。</p><p>特斯拉可以比作<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>，风光无限加自带光环。但苹果今天的局面是什么呢？苹果依然很重要、有光环，但苹果无论在创新力度和销售量上，完全被华为为代表的国产手机厂商打败了。</p><p>这条路径，笔者认为将完美地在新能源汽车赛道复制。</p><p>以前，“造车新势力”未成气候，国家补贴又高，导致大量传统车企甚至非车企涌入这一市场，形成了一种以套取补贴为主要盈利模式的扭曲形态，但这个时代已经结束了。</p><p>现在的新能源市场，是从“新能源”PK到“智能+新能源”PK的动态变化中，随着造车新势力“四小龙”带着完全不同的基因加入竞争格局后，后者带有的浓厚互联网科技和智能属性，明显的拉高了新能源汽车的竞争门槛，并有效的把新能源市场的竞争焦点，从以销量为主的存量竞争转移到“智能附加值”的增量竞争中。</p><p>就拿四小龙中最后一个站上3000辆/月的威马来说，它搭载的无人驾驶技术有很大一部分是来自于百度的生态协同，而百度的无人驾驶技术是一个开放式生态，只要有厂商愿意合作，就可以进入。</p><p>所以百度造不造车真的不重要，重要的是，市场已经有人消费汽车的“智能属性”了，而四小龙也罢、比亚迪也罢、传统大车企也罢，要想进入这个市场，最好的方便就是和百度合作，直接分享其“乐高式”模块。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201218172527782v246kkgh4smoi8g\"/><p>作为全球最大自动驾驶开放平台和生态，Apollo代表中国最强自动驾驶实力，这个最字有点扎眼但是事实。据知名研究机构Navigant Research发布的最新自动驾驶竞争力榜单显示，2020年，唯一上榜的中国玩家百度Apollo排名再次跃升，首次挺进Navigant Research报告国际自动驾驶“领导者”行列。</p><p>换言之，百度<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APOL\">阿波罗</a>就是汽车界的鸿蒙，这个价值未来会无限大，所以有人给阿波罗估值，是300亿美金，这个并不算夸张。但如果加上这个估值，百度的市值就已经900亿了，所以说过千亿真不是一个特别难的事儿。</p><p>还必须提到的是，在第三季度内，百度的自动驾驶与智能交通亦取得了关键进展，自动驾驶落地加快，智能交通商业化提速。</p><p>如果说阿波罗可能在未来是按车/辆来向B端收费的话，智能交通则完全是一个TO G的市场，单子可能是从几亿到几十亿，所以现在有个段子是说，百度开始抢包工头的活，因为未来的车路协同、智能化交通，都要百度来落实，这一块的想象天花板更高。</p><p>接下来，我们要看到，随着5G的加速，百度的云业务开始走强。如果从规模上说，百度的云业务现在比阿里相去甚远，但问题是，百度并不追求云业务的规模，CDN等业务更不是百度的菜，百度的重点是以云为分发路径，走ai+云赋能的路子。</p><p>据全球权威咨询机构IDC于7月14日发布的《中国人工智能云服务市场研究报告(2019)》显示，<strong>在中国AI公有云服务整体市场格局中，百度智能云在整体调用量、市场份额方面均名列第一，其拥有最多的AI产品数量</strong>，领先阿里云、腾讯云、AWS 和华为云等厂商。这是百度智能云连续两年在 AI cloud 领域排名中国第一。</p><p>接下来，再说一个新的业务，就是小度科技。小度科技看似是一个消费级硬件业务，但其实消费级硬件只是载体，搭载的其实是百度toC的AI服务，而小度科技完成独立融资绝对是百度AI to C发展进程中的标志性事件，融资完成后，小度科技投后估值已上升至约200亿元，百度对其仍有绝对的控制权。</p><p>所以您不要看我密密麻麻写了这么多，其实无论是无人驾驶、智能交通、智能云、智能硬件，核心还是AI，还是百度在AI上面拼死投入后换来的技术领先，再通过车、音箱、耳机、App、小程序以及我们无感但却无时不再的云，向各个领域分发。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201218172528750v246b94joh5ogqf\"/><p><strong>百度要结一张大网，把整个社会生活都笼罩在它的AI生态里</strong>，从这个角度来看，百度的估值高度向好不为过。</p><p>但是，我要承认，这是我按最乐观、最理想的角度进行的纸面推演，这里面最终的实现，必须依赖于两个核心点：</p><p><strong>1.百度要有长期主义的道路自信；</strong></p><p><strong>2.不再犯低级错误；</strong></p><p>所以说，百度真正的股价拐点还远未到来，但能真正准确判断转折点的投资者也并不太多，所以大概率在未来，百度的股价还会是锯齿形发展，而不是直线上扬。</p><p>遥想当年，百度上市之时，股价大涨354%，打破华尔街200多年海外公司首日上市股价飙升的记录，对这份风光复现的期待，百度人最好藏在心里，但不要写在脸上。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>百度，不要把得意写在脸上</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n百度，不要把得意写在脸上\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-18 17:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020121817252979abc3d3&s=b><strong>36氪</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>编者按：本文来自微信公众号“当下Tech”（ID:dengling40），作者：当下君，36氪经授权发布。近日来关于百度股价大涨的分析不绝于道路。核心无非是两点之争，现在的市值是之前的补涨？还是新业务的开拓价值被市场认可？无论如何，对于百度人来说，这是一个比较愉快的事情，因为在此前，百度已经忍受了太久的横盘停滞。那段时间里，百度什么都要忍耐，因为股价就像一个失灵的温度计，怎么加温就是不见水银柱的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020121817252979abc3d3&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a9b04e393a7ba0c0e4b4bcb05d83c1d","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020121817252979abc3d3&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2092310391","content_text":"编者按：本文来自微信公众号“当下Tech”（ID:dengling40），作者：当下君，36氪经授权发布。近日来关于百度股价大涨的分析不绝于道路。核心无非是两点之争，现在的市值是之前的补涨？还是新业务的开拓价值被市场认可？无论如何，对于百度人来说，这是一个比较愉快的事情，因为在此前，百度已经忍受了太久的横盘停滞。那段时间里，百度什么都要忍耐，因为股价就像一个失灵的温度计，怎么加温就是不见水银柱的上涨。落子AI，全力发力自动驾驶生态，这种概念加持，如果换在一家新巨头可能早就暴涨，但百度不涨。小度音箱大卖，成为全球智能音箱三强，这种硬业绩，百度也不怎么涨。未来学家的那句老话，在这里应该反过来说——人们总是高估百度的短期困难，却对其长期努力的价值给予低估。有些事情，放到历史的长度看，可能更有价值。2010年-2015年，百度在寻找移动互联网的船票问题上，确实解决的不好。虽然腾讯发明微信有一定偶然性，阿里发力手淘也是基于旧业务的移动化算不上根源性创新，但毕竟新的根基已经打造，但百度当时的战略过于跳脱，投入多个风口却又缺乏战略定力，浅尝辄止又匆匆推出，所以整个公司上下的气氛颇为浮躁。2018年陆奇离开，业界哀声一片。公开的评价是：陆奇是能下好AI这盘大棋的，但和百度文化的不兼容让其过早离开。到了后来，陆奇说过的ALL IN AI，似乎也被百度否定。其实，陆奇说的ALL IN AI，和百度后来说“我们没有说过ALL IN AI”，都没错。陆奇的ALL IN AI，不是一个严格意义上的战略表达，而是一个口号、一个方向，一种决心的显现。百度后来说没有讲过ALL IN AI，是比较完整理性的表述，毕竟百度彼时的业务基石并不是AI，还有移动互联网的课要补、还有信息流的课要补，过早的说ALL IN AI，会给投资人一种错觉，会导致对百度估价的更大的偏移。其实，2016年6月8日大理举行的百度联盟峰会上，李彦宏就在主题演讲《下一幕：人工智能》中，将AI确定为百度的公司级战略，只是没有说ALL IN。陆奇走后，百度的核心战略，变成一句有点土味的“夯实移动基础，决胜AI时代”，但笔者认为，这是李彦宏头脑清醒的一个决定。陆奇离开，方兴东博士写过一篇分析，那篇文章的部分观点，我是不太认同的，但里面唯独有一句话说的很好，极为精当，在此引述——“把陆奇当百度的救世主，出发点就是错误的，早点离开反而更好。百度的问题，只有李彦宏自己的蜕变和醒悟，才能豁然开朗。”“夯实移动基础，决胜AI时代”就是这种醒悟的体现。表现看上去，这句话提的时间的确有点晚，AT&TMD都已经飞奔下一个时代去了，您还在这儿“夯实移动”，这个战略是不是太过时了？正是因为如此，很多人觉得百度“未来太远 当下太惨”，也导致了自2018年开始，由于扛营收的搜索广告业务面临各种规范和调整，以及业务的自然老化，百度的股价严重超跌，跌到了一个不理性的低点，一个让百度人很堵心的低点。但是，真实的情况就是，AI的确离收获期比较远，百度必须想方设法的保证现在的营收水准，只有这样才能维持住每年15%的研发投入，才能不在AI的价值得以现实性显现之前耗尽最后一滴血。其实，李彦宏心里清楚，百度的价值没有那么低：——中国线上广告市场，信息流实现了对搜索的超越，但百度开始补课信息流，收入的良性替换在发生，而不是断崖式的恶性替换；——对于需要主动获取信息的人来说，搜索和搜索广告的价值并没有那么低；有位名叫“坐上火箭的人”的媒体人，写文章讲过一个特精彩的段子：当初张一鸣刚创业的时候，公司需要大量用到 Python，而那时 Python 这种语言还不怎么流行，因此，招人就特别不容易。张一鸣没有去拉勾这些垂直的招聘网站上去打广告。于是，张一鸣选择去百度买和Python相关的关键词广告，比如说Python里的一些函数，因为只有Python 的工程师才会去搜这些关键词，结果这些关键词很冷门、很便宜，这样有的放矢的招聘效果也很棒。这里足以见得，搜索的价值远比人们想象的要大，虽然它听起来有点过时；另外，经常被人诟病“无限跳转”的百度APP，也没有人们想象的那么不堪，它是微信和手淘之外中国为数不多的10亿级APP。有很多人唱衰百度，完全基于对于PC搜索的没落。PC搜索可能是没落了，但仔细研究可以发现，百度的应用内（in-app）搜索现在已经占到整体移动搜索的一半以上，且 “手百” App已占到百度移动收入的一半以上了，其变现能力比网页端搜索更强、利润率更高，其中较有代表性的可能是百度的托管页业务。于是，百度在悄然无声中完成了“夯实移动基础”，为继续“决胜AI”备足了粮草。所以，那段时间百度的真实状态是，忍得很辛苦，但心里并不怎么慌。现在看来，这种忍耐的回报逐渐显现，百度能够在一片唱衰声中保持持续的AI投入，来自于这种打落牙齿和血吞。但为什么还不涨呢，其实，“夯实”后，百度股价依然疲软，归根结底还是投资人对百度新兴业务的想象力不足。正是因为无从想象，只好以广告业务的PE作为整体的PE来给百度估值，这样，百度的智能云业务、AI创新业务的真实价值都被低估了。但也怪不得投资人，因为智能云业务和AI业务当时的确很难给出一个精确的估值。包括很了解百度的高盛，在某段时间内，也把云、AI、消费级智能业务、Apollo无人驾驶生态，总共估值到百度的15%，这是一个相当低的估值。但是，现在的新趋势是，高盛、巴克莱等，都修正了估值的模型，开始为百度的云、Apollo等AI业务进行独立估值，我们不说这种估值是否准确，但可以肯定的是，这种方式朝更准确的计算百度的真实价值，又近了一步。然后，开始有一点起色了，11月16日发布的百度2020年第三季度财报中，百度广告业务企稳，但得益于智能云业务收入攀升，核心非在线广告收入为29亿元， 同比增长14%。这是一个非常明确的信号，就是百度的新兴业务终于开始有商业化回报了。有人提出一个观点，AI业务中快速较快的百度云更适用于PS估值。因为，对于高速成长的业务，PS的估值方式更为合理。P是股价，S是每股的销售收入，P/S或者用总市值除以销售额，这样算出的值叫PS，它的特点是，收入乘数对价格政策和企业战略变化敏感，可以反映这种快速变化的结果。百度快速发展变化的主要包括智能云、智能交通、车联网等，它们都更适合PS估值。接下来笔者要释放一个观点，那就是185美元的股价和600亿美元左右的估值，只是下一轮增长的起点，百度可能在未来一年到两年站上千亿美金市值，这个概率并不太低。为什么这么说呢？有这样几个理由：首先说，百度的无人驾驶业务，或者放大一点是智能交通生态，未来带来的增长可能是指数级的。这么说的原因并不是百度的无人车小范围测试或者联合传统车企造车的传闻，因为这都不是很重要。确定性事件是什么呢？是中国的汽车市场真正进入智能化竞争时代。我们大概可以知道的是，今年上半年，比亚迪的整体电动车出货量，压制住了特斯拉的单款；今年下半年，造车四小龙蔚来、理想、小鹏和威马全部进入3000-5000辆/月的主流销售区间。特斯拉可以比作苹果，风光无限加自带光环。但苹果今天的局面是什么呢？苹果依然很重要、有光环，但苹果无论在创新力度和销售量上，完全被华为为代表的国产手机厂商打败了。这条路径，笔者认为将完美地在新能源汽车赛道复制。以前，“造车新势力”未成气候，国家补贴又高，导致大量传统车企甚至非车企涌入这一市场，形成了一种以套取补贴为主要盈利模式的扭曲形态，但这个时代已经结束了。现在的新能源市场，是从“新能源”PK到“智能+新能源”PK的动态变化中，随着造车新势力“四小龙”带着完全不同的基因加入竞争格局后，后者带有的浓厚互联网科技和智能属性，明显的拉高了新能源汽车的竞争门槛，并有效的把新能源市场的竞争焦点，从以销量为主的存量竞争转移到“智能附加值”的增量竞争中。就拿四小龙中最后一个站上3000辆/月的威马来说，它搭载的无人驾驶技术有很大一部分是来自于百度的生态协同，而百度的无人驾驶技术是一个开放式生态，只要有厂商愿意合作，就可以进入。所以百度造不造车真的不重要，重要的是，市场已经有人消费汽车的“智能属性”了，而四小龙也罢、比亚迪也罢、传统大车企也罢，要想进入这个市场，最好的方便就是和百度合作，直接分享其“乐高式”模块。作为全球最大自动驾驶开放平台和生态，Apollo代表中国最强自动驾驶实力，这个最字有点扎眼但是事实。据知名研究机构Navigant Research发布的最新自动驾驶竞争力榜单显示，2020年，唯一上榜的中国玩家百度Apollo排名再次跃升，首次挺进Navigant Research报告国际自动驾驶“领导者”行列。换言之，百度阿波罗就是汽车界的鸿蒙，这个价值未来会无限大，所以有人给阿波罗估值，是300亿美金，这个并不算夸张。但如果加上这个估值，百度的市值就已经900亿了，所以说过千亿真不是一个特别难的事儿。还必须提到的是，在第三季度内，百度的自动驾驶与智能交通亦取得了关键进展，自动驾驶落地加快，智能交通商业化提速。如果说阿波罗可能在未来是按车/辆来向B端收费的话，智能交通则完全是一个TO G的市场，单子可能是从几亿到几十亿，所以现在有个段子是说，百度开始抢包工头的活，因为未来的车路协同、智能化交通，都要百度来落实，这一块的想象天花板更高。接下来，我们要看到，随着5G的加速，百度的云业务开始走强。如果从规模上说，百度的云业务现在比阿里相去甚远，但问题是，百度并不追求云业务的规模，CDN等业务更不是百度的菜，百度的重点是以云为分发路径，走ai+云赋能的路子。据全球权威咨询机构IDC于7月14日发布的《中国人工智能云服务市场研究报告(2019)》显示，在中国AI公有云服务整体市场格局中，百度智能云在整体调用量、市场份额方面均名列第一，其拥有最多的AI产品数量，领先阿里云、腾讯云、AWS 和华为云等厂商。这是百度智能云连续两年在 AI cloud 领域排名中国第一。接下来，再说一个新的业务，就是小度科技。小度科技看似是一个消费级硬件业务，但其实消费级硬件只是载体，搭载的其实是百度toC的AI服务，而小度科技完成独立融资绝对是百度AI to C发展进程中的标志性事件，融资完成后，小度科技投后估值已上升至约200亿元，百度对其仍有绝对的控制权。所以您不要看我密密麻麻写了这么多，其实无论是无人驾驶、智能交通、智能云、智能硬件，核心还是AI，还是百度在AI上面拼死投入后换来的技术领先，再通过车、音箱、耳机、App、小程序以及我们无感但却无时不再的云，向各个领域分发。百度要结一张大网，把整个社会生活都笼罩在它的AI生态里，从这个角度来看，百度的估值高度向好不为过。但是，我要承认，这是我按最乐观、最理想的角度进行的纸面推演，这里面最终的实现，必须依赖于两个核心点：1.百度要有长期主义的道路自信；2.不再犯低级错误；所以说，百度真正的股价拐点还远未到来，但能真正准确判断转折点的投资者也并不太多，所以大概率在未来，百度的股价还会是锯齿形发展，而不是直线上扬。遥想当年，百度上市之时，股价大涨354%，打破华尔街200多年海外公司首日上市股价飙升的记录，对这份风光复现的期待，百度人最好藏在心里，但不要写在脸上。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397181098,"gmtCreate":1608207217214,"gmtModify":1703851761318,"author":{"id":"3456919738772946","authorId":"3456919738772946","name":"有股以后","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3456919738772946","authorIdStr":"3456919738772946"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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