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没感情的亏钱机器
2021-04-02
$Romeo Power, Inc.(RMO)$
太坑了 跌这么快 13的本
没感情的亏钱机器
2020-03-16
$跟谁学(GSX)$ 几个无大脑跟庄唱多的呢 ??
没感情的亏钱机器
2020-02-28
$Alpha Pro Tech Ltd(APT)$ 停牌啥意思 教一下
没感情的亏钱机器
2021-03-04
$Romeo Power, Inc.(RMO)$
就怕要洗很长时间
没感情的亏钱机器
2020-04-18
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
这东西不懂 wti创新低了,这边为啥没创
没感情的亏钱机器
2020-03-04
$跟谁学(GSX)$ 谁能告诉我这股为啥流通只有6亿 接下来的解禁计划是啥
没感情的亏钱机器
2020-02-28
$Alpha Pro Tech Ltd(APT)$ 20卖的 止盈单挂到16 结果最低到16.08 结果忘设止损
没感情的亏钱机器
2020-02-28
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ 一起空打爆造假庄稼维护正义
没感情的亏钱机器
2020-03-12
$跟谁学(GSX)$ 200股 市价单 这种市场一直成交不了 太辣鸡了
没感情的亏钱机器
2020-02-27
$华润医药(03320)$ 好股 没热度
没感情的亏钱机器
2021-03-22
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
抱歉,原内容已删除
没感情的亏钱机器
2020-09-07
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
抱歉,原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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<a 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10:46","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"5年4倍的收益,冯柳是怎样“炼成”的?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2065292194","media":"格隆汇","summary":"用高赔率抵御市场风险,用常识来增加确定性","content":"<p>冯柳,从小散到牛散,再到高毅董事总经理,一路飞奔,成为A股投资圈内的传奇神话。当下,他与张磊、邱国鹭等业界大佬齐名,成为众多散户们追捧的对象。</p><p>那么,冯柳是如何一步一步成为大咖的?泡杯茶,闲坐下来,我们就来聊聊。</p><p><b>1、白酒成为冯柳投资生涯的重要里程碑。</b></p><p>年少轻狂,零几年的时候冯柳还是小散户,在淘股吧混迹,网络取名“茅台03”。在2003-2006年,冯柳逐步买入并持有茅台,后于06年6月后放弃牛股茅台,期间收益也有300%之巨。</p><p>冯柳撤出的仓位去重仓了性价比更高的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">山西汾酒</a>。那时,中端白酒行业和企业的广阔路子才刚刚起步。</p><p>投资性价比?那时,汾酒2.5倍的市销率远低于茅台的12倍和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">五粮液</a>的5倍,而利润率及相关盈利指标并未有多少逊色,且增长率、增长潜能及空间还远大于后两位。</p><p>当年12月,山西汾酒飙升到了20多元,半年时间涨幅高达100%,比茅台同期多涨30%;2017年1月22日,汾酒更是上涨至了47.5元,7个月飚了200%,比茅台同期多涨70%以上。</p><p>2007年一季度后,冯柳清仓了汾酒。后来,汾酒从40多元一路暴跌至2008年10月的8.2元。没多久,冯柳屁颠屁颠跑回来了,又开始逐步建仓。</p><p><b>(冯柳山西汾酒第一次建仓与出手时机)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6cbc638efd8dfa02193c9d570c250e\" tg-width=\"745\" tg-height=\"513\"></p><p>山西汾酒在短短3年时间内直飙至90元,涨幅超过900%(复权价最大涨幅高达24倍),远超茅台同期500%的表现。后于2011年年底高位区间,冯柳清仓了汾酒。之后的3年,汾酒从90元一路狂跌至12.5元左右,跌幅超过85%。</p><p><b>(冯柳山西汾酒第二次建仓与出手时机)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3523d5c60e033b3aebd81f29422f59cf\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"518\"></p><p><b>这一战,冯柳踩的时间点很完美,在汾酒身上获取了远比茅台更高的价值回报。</b></p><p>2011年11月,撤出汾酒,冯柳开始转战医药股,基本也是布局在医药指数调整的尾期了。</p><p><b>(冯柳<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000513\">丽珠集团</a>建仓与出手时机)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55d1f928734c53aacb2cc398620137f1\" tg-width=\"746\" tg-height=\"520\"></p><p>2012年12月,冯柳在淘股吧如是总结到:“过去9年,我取得了93%的年复利回报,有部分原因是我始终紧扣高成长思路,但更重要的是过去的经济给予了我这样的机会,并且恰好是在我能理解的领域里。”</p><p><b>9年,年年93%,折算一下便是9年累计上涨370倍。传奇的投资神话,不得不令人叹为观止。</b></p><p>并且,传奇还在继续。</p><p>2、</p><p>2015年11月,私募一哥、宁波涨停板敢死队总舵主的徐翔,从宁波回上海的路上被警方截获。同月,冯柳被业界名声显赫的高毅资本董事长邱国鹭邀请加盟。</p><p>冯柳这一去,便从此开启了另一段投资佳话。</p><p><b>又是汾酒,一炮而红。</b></p><p>2016年一季度,冯柳建仓370万股,进入前10大股东名列,二季度小小减持至300万股,但三季度又增持至500万股,四季度继续增持至1500万股,仓位大致3.8亿元。到了2017Q1,冯柳减仓至700万股,二季度减仓至500万股,三季度没了踪影。</p><p>2016年初到2017年三季度,山西汾酒300%的上涨过程中,冯柳旗下的领山基金整体收益大致为100%。</p><p>之后的2018年一季度,冯柳盯上了低端白酒龙头——牛栏山二锅头。一季度建底仓730万股,二季度增持至850万股,三季度退出前10大股东序列,半年时间<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000860\">顺鑫农业</a>逆势上涨超过140%。</p><p><b>(冯柳顺鑫农业建仓与出手时机)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08df429908476134225a9379ffea9529\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"515\"></p><p>2018年,沪指累跌25%,深成指跌34%,创业板指跌29%。全年跌了一年,A股迎来至暗时刻。但冯柳掌托的高毅岭山1号实现正收益的0.52%,成为高毅旗下6大基金经理中唯一正收益的,更不用说跑赢其余公私募的基金经理了。</p><p>并且在2018年三季度,冯柳战略性建仓医药,进入A股前10大流通股股东的股票便有23只,其中医药股14只,占了6成,仓位总占比40-50%。</p><p>2019-2020年,医药的表现有目共睹,<b>在2018年三四季度大规模建仓医药,扎扎实实抄底了整个行业的老底。</b></p><p>2015年11月至今,不到5年时间,邻山基金1号累计收益率403.9%,远远跑赢沪深300的25%。</p><p><b>(高毅邻山1号基金成立以来表现)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4145702c9aeb435dd5305a8bcb570fd8\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"439\"></p><p>5年4倍,满满的收益惊喜。那么,冯柳到底做对了什么?</p><p>3、</p><p>冯柳的投资体系简单总结就是:<b>赔率优先,在概率不足的情况下分散投资,在赔率和概率都较高的情况下集中持有。</b></p><p>概率是指一个投资的胜率,可以理解为投资的确定性。赔率就是一笔投资的盈亏比或者说风险收益比。</p><p>个股弹性很好,赔率很高,如果买错了,不会亏很多,但是一旦买对,可以赚很多。在该体系下,冯柳首先会选择高赔率的个股,如果个股赔率很高,但是概率确定性不足的时,就会分散的去介入。如果发现一个机会赔率很高,并且概率也非常高的情况下,那么冯柳就会重仓持有。</p><p>所以,冯柳的邻山基金并不是集中持股,既有集中又有分散,结合市场情况而定,整体投资是偏防御性的。</p><p><b>投资策略上,在风险充分暴露之后逆向投资,用高赔率抵御市场风险,用常识来增加确定性。这里有两个经典案例值得分享。</b></p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00322\">康师傅控股</a></b></p><p>2016年,冯柳投资了一家方便面龙头——康师傅控股。当时,随着外卖崛起,以及消费升级的大背景下,康师傅一季度业绩盈利数据非常之差。并且,多方数据证明二季度还会更糟糕,市场也一致认为二季度公司会出大幅衰退,股价也大幅暴跌。</p><p>不过,对比日本、韩国等市场,并没有因为外卖、消费升级等外界大环境而导致人们不吃方便面了,也没有方便面巨头被取代的先例,只是营收利润增速会有较大波动。因此,<b>冯柳觉得市场一致预期与常识相违背,在市场预期下半年盈利能力还将继续下滑的时候加速买入。</b></p><p>二季度业绩出来之后,果然如市场预期那般糟糕,但是股价已经涨了50%,之后的1年更是上涨了近300%。</p><p><b>(冯柳康师傅建仓时机)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d55fc96e4e1bf6678c6af23f3150e518\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"513\"></p><p><b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000063\">中兴通讯</a></b></p><p>2018年4月,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00763\">中兴通讯</a>被美国政府断掉芯片供应,也开启了中美之间轰轰烈烈的毛衣战。市场非常恐慌,怕中兴倒下。6月13日,公司复牌跌停,一连8个,累跌57%,后一路重挫至11.85元,市值跌到仅有500多亿元。</p><p><b>要知道,中兴通讯可是全球第4大通信运营商啊!</b> </p><p>市场最悲观最恐慌的2019年一季度,冯柳出手3000万股,差不多10个亿。市场一致预期中兴被卡脖子挺不过来,但基于常识判断,国家层面会救。</p><p><b>用高赔率抵御市场风险,用常识来增加确定性。</b>冯柳果断出手,最终证明结果还是耿耿的。</p><p><b>(冯柳中兴通讯建仓与出手时机)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19dde784504b0a4a72c4db4fc2e88d49\" tg-width=\"746\" tg-height=\"519\"></p><p>冯柳战绩显赫,在股票的买点或卖点上的拿捏恰到好处,<b>背后其实是深厚价值认识和市场理解功力。</b></p><p><b>逆向投资,赔率优先,分散倾向,自成一家。</b>冯柳是国内屈指可数既深知价值,又熟悉市场的牛人。更重要的是,他还用精准的文字记录了他的体系,对于普通投资者而言可以从中获益良多。</p><p>不管是抄代码,还是抄思维,A股最优秀的一批投资者,包括冯柳,都值得我们虚心跟随,并学习之。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5年4倍的收益,冯柳是怎样“炼成”的?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5年4倍的收益,冯柳是怎样“炼成”的?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-07 10:46 北京时间 <a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/405246><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>冯柳,从小散到牛散,再到高毅董事总经理,一路飞奔,成为A股投资圈内的传奇神话。当下,他与张磊、邱国鹭等业界大佬齐名,成为众多散户们追捧的对象。那么,冯柳是如何一步一步成为大咖的?泡杯茶,闲坐下来,我们就来聊聊。1、白酒成为冯柳投资生涯的重要里程碑。年少轻狂,零几年的时候冯柳还是小散户,在淘股吧混迹,网络取名“茅台03”。在2003-2006年,冯柳逐步买入并持有茅台,后于06年6月后放弃牛股茅台,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/405246\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87c67fe518d21487c999b3feb7183500","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/405246","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2065292194","content_text":"冯柳,从小散到牛散,再到高毅董事总经理,一路飞奔,成为A股投资圈内的传奇神话。当下,他与张磊、邱国鹭等业界大佬齐名,成为众多散户们追捧的对象。那么,冯柳是如何一步一步成为大咖的?泡杯茶,闲坐下来,我们就来聊聊。1、白酒成为冯柳投资生涯的重要里程碑。年少轻狂,零几年的时候冯柳还是小散户,在淘股吧混迹,网络取名“茅台03”。在2003-2006年,冯柳逐步买入并持有茅台,后于06年6月后放弃牛股茅台,期间收益也有300%之巨。冯柳撤出的仓位去重仓了性价比更高的山西汾酒。那时,中端白酒行业和企业的广阔路子才刚刚起步。投资性价比?那时,汾酒2.5倍的市销率远低于茅台的12倍和五粮液的5倍,而利润率及相关盈利指标并未有多少逊色,且增长率、增长潜能及空间还远大于后两位。当年12月,山西汾酒飙升到了20多元,半年时间涨幅高达100%,比茅台同期多涨30%;2017年1月22日,汾酒更是上涨至了47.5元,7个月飚了200%,比茅台同期多涨70%以上。2007年一季度后,冯柳清仓了汾酒。后来,汾酒从40多元一路暴跌至2008年10月的8.2元。没多久,冯柳屁颠屁颠跑回来了,又开始逐步建仓。(冯柳山西汾酒第一次建仓与出手时机)山西汾酒在短短3年时间内直飙至90元,涨幅超过900%(复权价最大涨幅高达24倍),远超茅台同期500%的表现。后于2011年年底高位区间,冯柳清仓了汾酒。之后的3年,汾酒从90元一路狂跌至12.5元左右,跌幅超过85%。(冯柳山西汾酒第二次建仓与出手时机)这一战,冯柳踩的时间点很完美,在汾酒身上获取了远比茅台更高的价值回报。2011年11月,撤出汾酒,冯柳开始转战医药股,基本也是布局在医药指数调整的尾期了。(冯柳丽珠集团建仓与出手时机)2012年12月,冯柳在淘股吧如是总结到:“过去9年,我取得了93%的年复利回报,有部分原因是我始终紧扣高成长思路,但更重要的是过去的经济给予了我这样的机会,并且恰好是在我能理解的领域里。”9年,年年93%,折算一下便是9年累计上涨370倍。传奇的投资神话,不得不令人叹为观止。并且,传奇还在继续。2、2015年11月,私募一哥、宁波涨停板敢死队总舵主的徐翔,从宁波回上海的路上被警方截获。同月,冯柳被业界名声显赫的高毅资本董事长邱国鹭邀请加盟。冯柳这一去,便从此开启了另一段投资佳话。又是汾酒,一炮而红。2016年一季度,冯柳建仓370万股,进入前10大股东名列,二季度小小减持至300万股,但三季度又增持至500万股,四季度继续增持至1500万股,仓位大致3.8亿元。到了2017Q1,冯柳减仓至700万股,二季度减仓至500万股,三季度没了踪影。2016年初到2017年三季度,山西汾酒300%的上涨过程中,冯柳旗下的领山基金整体收益大致为100%。之后的2018年一季度,冯柳盯上了低端白酒龙头——牛栏山二锅头。一季度建底仓730万股,二季度增持至850万股,三季度退出前10大股东序列,半年时间顺鑫农业逆势上涨超过140%。(冯柳顺鑫农业建仓与出手时机)2018年,沪指累跌25%,深成指跌34%,创业板指跌29%。全年跌了一年,A股迎来至暗时刻。但冯柳掌托的高毅岭山1号实现正收益的0.52%,成为高毅旗下6大基金经理中唯一正收益的,更不用说跑赢其余公私募的基金经理了。并且在2018年三季度,冯柳战略性建仓医药,进入A股前10大流通股股东的股票便有23只,其中医药股14只,占了6成,仓位总占比40-50%。2019-2020年,医药的表现有目共睹,在2018年三四季度大规模建仓医药,扎扎实实抄底了整个行业的老底。2015年11月至今,不到5年时间,邻山基金1号累计收益率403.9%,远远跑赢沪深300的25%。(高毅邻山1号基金成立以来表现)5年4倍,满满的收益惊喜。那么,冯柳到底做对了什么?3、冯柳的投资体系简单总结就是:赔率优先,在概率不足的情况下分散投资,在赔率和概率都较高的情况下集中持有。概率是指一个投资的胜率,可以理解为投资的确定性。赔率就是一笔投资的盈亏比或者说风险收益比。个股弹性很好,赔率很高,如果买错了,不会亏很多,但是一旦买对,可以赚很多。在该体系下,冯柳首先会选择高赔率的个股,如果个股赔率很高,但是概率确定性不足的时,就会分散的去介入。如果发现一个机会赔率很高,并且概率也非常高的情况下,那么冯柳就会重仓持有。所以,冯柳的邻山基金并不是集中持股,既有集中又有分散,结合市场情况而定,整体投资是偏防御性的。投资策略上,在风险充分暴露之后逆向投资,用高赔率抵御市场风险,用常识来增加确定性。这里有两个经典案例值得分享。1、康师傅控股2016年,冯柳投资了一家方便面龙头——康师傅控股。当时,随着外卖崛起,以及消费升级的大背景下,康师傅一季度业绩盈利数据非常之差。并且,多方数据证明二季度还会更糟糕,市场也一致认为二季度公司会出大幅衰退,股价也大幅暴跌。不过,对比日本、韩国等市场,并没有因为外卖、消费升级等外界大环境而导致人们不吃方便面了,也没有方便面巨头被取代的先例,只是营收利润增速会有较大波动。因此,冯柳觉得市场一致预期与常识相违背,在市场预期下半年盈利能力还将继续下滑的时候加速买入。二季度业绩出来之后,果然如市场预期那般糟糕,但是股价已经涨了50%,之后的1年更是上涨了近300%。(冯柳康师傅建仓时机)2、中兴通讯2018年4月,中兴通讯被美国政府断掉芯片供应,也开启了中美之间轰轰烈烈的毛衣战。市场非常恐慌,怕中兴倒下。6月13日,公司复牌跌停,一连8个,累跌57%,后一路重挫至11.85元,市值跌到仅有500多亿元。要知道,中兴通讯可是全球第4大通信运营商啊! 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