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城西币加锁
2021-11-19
没事,美国股市还有可能归零,问题不大。
特斯拉真会暴跌90%吗?别激动,认真分析一下
城西币加锁
2021-11-04
$英伟达(NVDA)$
265的call 1.8就卖掉了。肠子都悔青了[捂脸]
城西币加锁
2021-11-02
$英伟达(NVDA)$
265的看涨期权卖了,哭晕在厕所[捂脸]
城西币加锁
2021-11-02
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
就问你们服不服,半个小时就干回来了[笑哭]
城西币加锁
2021-08-19
你们不要,我自己要。
腾讯今日回购18万股,涉资7696.5138万港元
城西币加锁
2021-08-09
$MRNA 20210917 510.0 CALL(MRNA)$
感谢摩德纳[开心]
城西币加锁
2021-08-09
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$
女王让大家抄作业,不听啊🙉
城西币加锁
2021-04-01
$亿邦国际(EBON)$
隔壁十二个点,2块最高涨到接近40。这里在增发,美股都反弹了,送大家十个点跌幅。真是可喜可贺[微笑]
城西币加锁
2020-11-24
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
虽然买了吧,但是感觉涨的有点过分了[捂脸]
城西币加锁
2020-11-13
$蔚来(NIO)$
我这个蔚来坚定的做多者,都被涨得有点害怕了😱。不敢,相信自己的眼睛。
城西币加锁
2020-11-09
$蔚来(NIO)$
$蔚来(NIO)$ 幸好把那个姓“苍”拉黑了,再也看不到他那些goupi文章了。不过说好到40直播吃玻璃渣子,估计他早就缩起来,不出来了。
城西币加锁
2020-10-30
$蔚来(NIO)$
蔚来的股票是没刹车了。想想幸好把那几个脑子不正常的屏蔽了,才没有影响判断。钱多的多赚,钱少点少赚。但是,你要听了那几个脑子不正常的去做空,那真的要嗝屁了。算了,不说了,不能吹;再吹,明天蔚来退市的傻缺文章又要出现了。
城西币加锁
2020-10-15
$蔚来(NIO)$
就问唧唧歪歪的空头们,服不服。
城西币加锁
2020-09-09
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
反正这里就是追涨杀跌的地方,大跌的时候到处看200。大涨的时候,到处看1000的。然后,美股分分钟教你做人,手里那点钱,全部反反复复把你割光。好好,看看昨天关于BD的投资策略。控制仓位,逐步买入,才是王道。
城西币加锁
2020-09-01
$苹果(AAPL)$
你这只苹果自己有多“大”,心里没点数么?还这么涨[笑哭]
城西币加锁
2020-08-31
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
没错我就是那个拆股前,全仓杠杆买特斯拉的股东。感谢,马斯克,感谢美股,感谢特斯拉。
城西币加锁
2020-08-27
$蔚来(NIO)$
这么明显的回调上车机会,有些人就坐不住了,看空,要卖了。哎,我想那些两块多买的蔚来股东,心里面一定觉得很可笑。
城西币加锁
2020-08-24
$美团点评-W(03690)$
当初那个叫嚣着各种看空的人,估计连诈尸都不会出来了。
城西币加锁
2020-08-19
$柯达(KODK)$
尘归尘土归土,从哪儿来回哪儿去。
城西币加锁
2020-07-06
$拼多多(PDD)$
说实话,真心不知道死活要做空的图什么。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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:[],"htmlText":"没事,美国股市还有可能归零,问题不大。","listText":"没事,美国股市还有可能归零,问题不大。","text":"没事,美国股市还有可能归零,问题不大。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876518131","repostId":"2184976238","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2184976238","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1637291935,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2184976238?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-19 11:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉真会暴跌90%吗?别激动,认真分析一下","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2184976238","media":"虎嗅","summary":"特斯拉值1万亿美元,但不是现在。","content":"<p>作者|Eastland</p>\n<p>马斯克“顺应民意”,在一周之内套现约69亿美元。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股票结束11周连涨(从680美元涨至1243.5美元),调头向下,一度跌破1000美元。按照网友“批准”的减持计划,马斯克还要再卖1000多万股。</p>\n<p>我们这一代人,有生之年看不到新能源的天花板,但不意味着可以透支未来。特斯拉高位回调说明个别选手被高估。</p>\n<p><b>知名空头甚至暗示特斯拉可能会暴跌90%。特斯拉身系“美国国运”,在华尔街人心目中的地位今非昔比,即便深度回调也会在一年半载内“收复失地”。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35c7f11c8e93554d5bd1f6a63651d4d6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>越过“生死线”—— 20万辆/年</b></p>\n<p>2012年6月,特斯拉开始交付Model S;2015年9月,2012年6月,Model X、Model 3先后面世。</p>\n<p>2017年,三款车型合计交付10.3万辆(其中Model 3 交付1764辆),销售收入85.4亿美元,净亏损22.4亿美元。当时多数人不看好这家公司。</p>\n<p>上海“超级工厂”的建设救了特斯拉——2018年签约,2019年开工建设,2020年产能逐步释放,三季度末达到25万辆/年。</p>\n<p>到2020年Q3,特斯拉单季产、销量分别达到14.5万辆和14万辆,环比增幅分别为76.8%、53.8%。再到2021年Q3,产、销量分别23.8万辆、24.1万辆,产销率102%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7715c6e633e6d633c9020349e0a86e18\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>规模经济是汽车工业的铁律,概莫能外。特斯拉科技内核虽硬,年销量10万辆出头的2017年几乎亏到破产,年销量超过25万辆的2018年让多头看到曙光,年销量36.5万辆的2019年亏损率收窄至3%,年销量超过50万辆的2020年才算“温饱”。</p>\n<p>截至2021年9月末,加州基地产能达60万辆/年(其中Model 3/Y产能50万辆/年),上海基地产能45万辆/年(全部为Model 3/Y产能),合计105万辆/年。2021年10月,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>新能源车单月销量超过8万辆,年化产能亦达百万量级。</p>\n<p>2021年前三季,特斯拉累积销量62.4万辆,净利润33亿美元,市值突破万亿美元。</p>\n<p>没有燃油车生产经验,直接研发、生产、销售电动车,通常这样的“玩家”被定义为新势力。与“新势力”对应的是比亚迪、上汽、北汽、广汽等“拥抱”新能源车的燃油车生产企业。至于奔驰、宝马、大众等企业还醉心于从燃油车赚“最后一个铜板”,还在拿“48v轻混”自欺欺人。</p>\n<p>其实,年产数百万辆的传统车企推出新能源车具有“先天优势”:一是不存在产能瓶颈;二是基建、生产设施、模具等方方面面都可借燃油车的“光”,成本比较容易控制 。新势力从PPT起步,前期巨亏是必然的。</p>\n<p><b>特斯拉的历程说明:“20万辆/年”是生死线,“50万辆/年”是温饱线。</b>新能源车玩家中,只有特斯拉、比亚迪跨越了这两条线,并已突进到100万辆/年这个“超级关口”。<b>蔚、小、理差距实在太大,在销量接近“20万辆/年”之前没必要关注。</b>#<b>只有炒作机会,没有投资价值#</b></p>\n<p><b>薄利多销是王道</b></p>\n<p>特斯拉财报披露销量时,将Model X与Model S合并、Model 3与Model Y合并。Model X/S是高端产品,主打性能;Model 3/Y是“普惠”产品,主打性价比。</p>\n<p>早年的特斯拉,高端车型是绝对主流。到2018年Q3,Model 3交付5.6万辆,占比达67%(当时Model Y还没有下线);2019年Q3,高端车型占比降至18%;2021年Q3,Model 3/Y交付达23.2万辆,占比96%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06bb97df05a99a37427112b7a7a922e5\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉将所有车型销售额、成本合并披露,投资者无法算出每种车型的毛利润率,只能做定性分析——</p>\n<p>2018年Q3,高端车型交付数占比33%,单辆售价、单辆成本分别为7万美元、5.25万美元,单辆毛利润1.75万美元,毛利润率25%。</p>\n<p>2021年Q3,高端车型交付数占比仅4%,单辆售价、单辆成本分别降到4.8万美元、3.38万美元,单辆毛利润1.46万美元,毛利润率提高到30%。</p>\n<p>尽管单辆毛利润金额减少16.6%,但交付数增长187%。2021年Q3,特斯拉汽车销售毛利润达35.2亿美元,较2018年Q3增长139%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556c0b9e4bb349cf62a2933b585dd647\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉以高端产品打开市场的策略是正确的。</p>\n<p>一方面,身为“新势力”,产能有限,敢于“吃螃蟹”的用户也没那么多。</p>\n<p>另一方面,推出精心打磨、凝聚诸多“黑科技”的高端产品,能够树立良好的品牌形象。等公司站稳脚跟、产能逐步扩大再推出“亲民”产品。消费者发现“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BJZ.SI\">高大</a>上”的特斯拉能买得起,欣然解囊。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>首先推出售价50万左右的ES8,与特斯拉的思路基本相同。</p>\n<p>但规模经济是汽车工业的铁律,要上规模就必须薄利多销。顶级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">豪华</a>品牌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RACE\">法拉利</a>、宾利、布加迪活得艰难,丰田、大众成为行业翘楚。马斯克想得很清楚。</p>\n<p><b>营收多元化的努力</b></p>\n<p>中国整车制造企业采用4S店模式,售后服务盈利能力可观(工时费、“零整比”)。特斯拉采用“互联网思维”,通过自建的服务中心进行“直销”并提供售后服务,特斯拉还自建超级充电桩,提供有偿服务。根据公开资料,特斯拉在中国建立了100个服务中心、800座充电站,覆盖310个城市,有1700个充电桩。</p>\n<p>特斯拉还涉足储能及光伏发电,在澳大利亚、加州布置锂电池储能装置。</p>\n<p>这样一来,特斯拉就有了三项收入:汽车(含租赁)、服务、发电/储能。</p>\n<p>2017年以来,汽车业务营收占比在82%~87%之间波动,其中的电动车销售是推动营收增长的唯一引擎。</p>\n<p>2018年,电动车销售收入176亿美元,同比增长107%,在营收中的比重升至86.3%,带动营收整体增速达到82.5%。</p>\n<p>2019年,电动车销售收入200亿美元,同比增速降到13%,占营收的84.7%,营收整体仅增14.5%。</p>\n<p>2020年,电动车销售收入262亿美元,同比增速回升至31%,在营收中的份额提高到86.4%,营收整体增速为28.3%。</p>\n<p>2021年前三季,电动车销售收入达303亿美元,同比增长42%,在营收中的比重升至86.6%,营收整体增速达到73.6%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a9d0028c1d798a2fd3c647228051c9a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉的营收多元化努力有得有失,服务业务扭亏在即,令人“遐想”,储能/发电业务可能“误入歧途”。</p>\n<p><b>服务亏损收窄意义非凡</b></p>\n<p>特斯拉采用直销模式,一方面是“标新立异”,另一方面也因为初创时期缺乏品牌号召力,难以吸引外部资金投资、运营4S店。</p>\n<p>2018年特斯拉服务收入13.9亿美元,毛亏损4.9亿美元,亏损率高达35.2%;2019年服务业务毛亏损5.4亿美元,毛亏损率缩减到24.4%;2021年前三季度,毛亏损1.2亿美元,毛亏损率4.5%。</p>\n<p>2018年以来,特斯拉服务毛亏损率呈45%向上缩减,扭亏指日可待。这是蔚来梦寐以求的局面。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04dc22604df9d5c44b7fc5abb45af1f4\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉服务亏损收窄意义非凡。</p>\n<p>首先可以大幅提高盈利能力。如果服务亏损,随着保有量增长,特斯拉将不堪重负,蔚来正面临这一危机。如果服务能赚钱,利润将源源不断。</p>\n<p>其次,从根本上改变了车企与用户的关系。传统企业通过第三方销售并提供售后服务,特斯拉与用户保持“直连”,与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、小米一样,既卖硬件又“获客”,“钱途”不可限量。</p>\n<p><b>从这个角度,特斯拉的高估值是有道理的。</b></p>\n<p><b>储能业务可能是条歧路</b></p>\n<p>特斯拉储能业务从加州起步。起初,借助天时地利人和,毛利润率直追电动车业务。</p>\n<p>随着远离家乡和规模扩大,储能业务效益急剧下滑。2021年前三季度,储能业务出现7800万美元毛亏损,亏损率3.7%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2b1d935b8f2bdd6561296fe2689acf2\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉当年选择18650三元锂电池无可厚非,一是技术高度成熟可靠,拿来就可以用;二是能量密度高。至于成本,高端的用度可以承受,但却将全世界新能源车引上“锂电池”之路。</p>\n<p>如今电动车普及成度最高的中国,锂电渗透率也才9%,仅在2021年,锂电池上游材料已经涨了300%。</p>\n<p>锂在自然界中的丰度较高,但具备经济开采价值的资源有限,且集中在“南美锂三角”和西澳。粗略测算,全球可以合理成本开采的锂能够装备20亿辆纯电动车。假如全球每年销售的新车全部采用锂电池,只够用20年。<b>锂电池显然不是新能源车的最终解决方案!</b></p>\n<p><b>锂、钴、镍、锰造动力电池还远远不够,能拿出多少用于储能?</b>某研究机构还煞有介事地预测<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>2060年储能业务收入,谁知道那时候还有没有锂!</p>\n<p>目前运营的化学储能项目,90%采用的是锂电池。除资源瓶颈,锂电池用于储能还有两大障碍——</p>\n<p><b>一是安全性/可靠性。</b>天太冷,储存的电量会被“消灭”;天太热,可能会爆炸。电动汽车、电动自行车爆炸自燃的案例数不胜数:2021年,特斯拉澳大利亚储能电站重达13吨的锂电池发生爆炸,大火烧了三天;北京南四环锂电池储能电站也发生过爆炸事故;近3年内,全球范围内的储能项目发生爆炸和火灾事故多达26起。问题是,全球一共才有几个储能项目,爆炸的概率也太高了。</p>\n<p><b>有人认为燃气、电也不是绝对安全,锂电池的爆燃危险且先不说,但各地纷纷禁止电动车室内充电,没禁用燃气、用电!</b></p>\n<p><b>二是循环寿命太短。</b>花巨资建的储能电站(即便用循环寿命更高的磷酸铁锂电池),每天充放一次,用十年八年就Game Over了?</p>\n<p><b>特斯拉选择锂电池有历史的必然性,但锂电池注定不是新能源车及储能的最终解决方案。</b></p>\n<p>假如最终的解决方案是氢燃料电池,对年销量超100万辆新能源车的特斯拉、比亚迪来讲,无非是换家供应商。而且,以马斯克、王传福的性情,大概率会自己搞氢燃料电池。那时候苦的是宁德时代。#功能机王者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>无法称霸智能机时代#</p>\n<p><b>总而言之,特斯拉值1万亿美元,但不是现在。</b></p>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉真会暴跌90%吗?别激动,认真分析一下</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉真会暴跌90%吗?别激动,认真分析一下\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-19 11:18 北京时间 <a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/472973.html><strong>虎嗅</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者|Eastland\n马斯克“顺应民意”,在一周之内套现约69亿美元。特斯拉股票结束11周连涨(从680美元涨至1243.5美元),调头向下,一度跌破1000美元。按照网友“批准”的减持计划,马斯克还要再卖1000多万股。\n我们这一代人,有生之年看不到新能源的天花板,但不意味着可以透支未来。特斯拉高位回调说明个别选手被高估。\n知名空头甚至暗示特斯拉可能会暴跌90%。特斯拉身系“美国国运”,在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/472973.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2969cc3878a4ae07d0efb982faa06e8b","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/472973.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2184976238","content_text":"作者|Eastland\n马斯克“顺应民意”,在一周之内套现约69亿美元。特斯拉股票结束11周连涨(从680美元涨至1243.5美元),调头向下,一度跌破1000美元。按照网友“批准”的减持计划,马斯克还要再卖1000多万股。\n我们这一代人,有生之年看不到新能源的天花板,但不意味着可以透支未来。特斯拉高位回调说明个别选手被高估。\n知名空头甚至暗示特斯拉可能会暴跌90%。特斯拉身系“美国国运”,在华尔街人心目中的地位今非昔比,即便深度回调也会在一年半载内“收复失地”。\n\n越过“生死线”—— 20万辆/年\n2012年6月,特斯拉开始交付Model S;2015年9月,2012年6月,Model X、Model 3先后面世。\n2017年,三款车型合计交付10.3万辆(其中Model 3 交付1764辆),销售收入85.4亿美元,净亏损22.4亿美元。当时多数人不看好这家公司。\n上海“超级工厂”的建设救了特斯拉——2018年签约,2019年开工建设,2020年产能逐步释放,三季度末达到25万辆/年。\n到2020年Q3,特斯拉单季产、销量分别达到14.5万辆和14万辆,环比增幅分别为76.8%、53.8%。再到2021年Q3,产、销量分别23.8万辆、24.1万辆,产销率102%。\n规模经济是汽车工业的铁律,概莫能外。特斯拉科技内核虽硬,年销量10万辆出头的2017年几乎亏到破产,年销量超过25万辆的2018年让多头看到曙光,年销量36.5万辆的2019年亏损率收窄至3%,年销量超过50万辆的2020年才算“温饱”。\n截至2021年9月末,加州基地产能达60万辆/年(其中Model 3/Y产能50万辆/年),上海基地产能45万辆/年(全部为Model 3/Y产能),合计105万辆/年。2021年10月,比亚迪新能源车单月销量超过8万辆,年化产能亦达百万量级。\n2021年前三季,特斯拉累积销量62.4万辆,净利润33亿美元,市值突破万亿美元。\n没有燃油车生产经验,直接研发、生产、销售电动车,通常这样的“玩家”被定义为新势力。与“新势力”对应的是比亚迪、上汽、北汽、广汽等“拥抱”新能源车的燃油车生产企业。至于奔驰、宝马、大众等企业还醉心于从燃油车赚“最后一个铜板”,还在拿“48v轻混”自欺欺人。\n其实,年产数百万辆的传统车企推出新能源车具有“先天优势”:一是不存在产能瓶颈;二是基建、生产设施、模具等方方面面都可借燃油车的“光”,成本比较容易控制 。新势力从PPT起步,前期巨亏是必然的。\n特斯拉的历程说明:“20万辆/年”是生死线,“50万辆/年”是温饱线。新能源车玩家中,只有特斯拉、比亚迪跨越了这两条线,并已突进到100万辆/年这个“超级关口”。蔚、小、理差距实在太大,在销量接近“20万辆/年”之前没必要关注。#只有炒作机会,没有投资价值#\n薄利多销是王道\n特斯拉财报披露销量时,将Model X与Model S合并、Model 3与Model Y合并。Model X/S是高端产品,主打性能;Model 3/Y是“普惠”产品,主打性价比。\n早年的特斯拉,高端车型是绝对主流。到2018年Q3,Model 3交付5.6万辆,占比达67%(当时Model Y还没有下线);2019年Q3,高端车型占比降至18%;2021年Q3,Model 3/Y交付达23.2万辆,占比96%。\n\n特斯拉将所有车型销售额、成本合并披露,投资者无法算出每种车型的毛利润率,只能做定性分析——\n2018年Q3,高端车型交付数占比33%,单辆售价、单辆成本分别为7万美元、5.25万美元,单辆毛利润1.75万美元,毛利润率25%。\n2021年Q3,高端车型交付数占比仅4%,单辆售价、单辆成本分别降到4.8万美元、3.38万美元,单辆毛利润1.46万美元,毛利润率提高到30%。\n尽管单辆毛利润金额减少16.6%,但交付数增长187%。2021年Q3,特斯拉汽车销售毛利润达35.2亿美元,较2018年Q3增长139%。\n\n特斯拉以高端产品打开市场的策略是正确的。\n一方面,身为“新势力”,产能有限,敢于“吃螃蟹”的用户也没那么多。\n另一方面,推出精心打磨、凝聚诸多“黑科技”的高端产品,能够树立良好的品牌形象。等公司站稳脚跟、产能逐步扩大再推出“亲民”产品。消费者发现“高大上”的特斯拉能买得起,欣然解囊。\n蔚来首先推出售价50万左右的ES8,与特斯拉的思路基本相同。\n但规模经济是汽车工业的铁律,要上规模就必须薄利多销。顶级豪华品牌,法拉利、宾利、布加迪活得艰难,丰田、大众成为行业翘楚。马斯克想得很清楚。\n营收多元化的努力\n中国整车制造企业采用4S店模式,售后服务盈利能力可观(工时费、“零整比”)。特斯拉采用“互联网思维”,通过自建的服务中心进行“直销”并提供售后服务,特斯拉还自建超级充电桩,提供有偿服务。根据公开资料,特斯拉在中国建立了100个服务中心、800座充电站,覆盖310个城市,有1700个充电桩。\n特斯拉还涉足储能及光伏发电,在澳大利亚、加州布置锂电池储能装置。\n这样一来,特斯拉就有了三项收入:汽车(含租赁)、服务、发电/储能。\n2017年以来,汽车业务营收占比在82%~87%之间波动,其中的电动车销售是推动营收增长的唯一引擎。\n2018年,电动车销售收入176亿美元,同比增长107%,在营收中的比重升至86.3%,带动营收整体增速达到82.5%。\n2019年,电动车销售收入200亿美元,同比增速降到13%,占营收的84.7%,营收整体仅增14.5%。\n2020年,电动车销售收入262亿美元,同比增速回升至31%,在营收中的份额提高到86.4%,营收整体增速为28.3%。\n2021年前三季,电动车销售收入达303亿美元,同比增长42%,在营收中的比重升至86.6%,营收整体增速达到73.6%。\n\n特斯拉的营收多元化努力有得有失,服务业务扭亏在即,令人“遐想”,储能/发电业务可能“误入歧途”。\n服务亏损收窄意义非凡\n特斯拉采用直销模式,一方面是“标新立异”,另一方面也因为初创时期缺乏品牌号召力,难以吸引外部资金投资、运营4S店。\n2018年特斯拉服务收入13.9亿美元,毛亏损4.9亿美元,亏损率高达35.2%;2019年服务业务毛亏损5.4亿美元,毛亏损率缩减到24.4%;2021年前三季度,毛亏损1.2亿美元,毛亏损率4.5%。\n2018年以来,特斯拉服务毛亏损率呈45%向上缩减,扭亏指日可待。这是蔚来梦寐以求的局面。\n\n特斯拉服务亏损收窄意义非凡。\n首先可以大幅提高盈利能力。如果服务亏损,随着保有量增长,特斯拉将不堪重负,蔚来正面临这一危机。如果服务能赚钱,利润将源源不断。\n其次,从根本上改变了车企与用户的关系。传统企业通过第三方销售并提供售后服务,特斯拉与用户保持“直连”,与苹果、小米一样,既卖硬件又“获客”,“钱途”不可限量。\n从这个角度,特斯拉的高估值是有道理的。\n储能业务可能是条歧路\n特斯拉储能业务从加州起步。起初,借助天时地利人和,毛利润率直追电动车业务。\n随着远离家乡和规模扩大,储能业务效益急剧下滑。2021年前三季度,储能业务出现7800万美元毛亏损,亏损率3.7%。\n\n特斯拉当年选择18650三元锂电池无可厚非,一是技术高度成熟可靠,拿来就可以用;二是能量密度高。至于成本,高端的用度可以承受,但却将全世界新能源车引上“锂电池”之路。\n如今电动车普及成度最高的中国,锂电渗透率也才9%,仅在2021年,锂电池上游材料已经涨了300%。\n锂在自然界中的丰度较高,但具备经济开采价值的资源有限,且集中在“南美锂三角”和西澳。粗略测算,全球可以合理成本开采的锂能够装备20亿辆纯电动车。假如全球每年销售的新车全部采用锂电池,只够用20年。锂电池显然不是新能源车的最终解决方案!\n锂、钴、镍、锰造动力电池还远远不够,能拿出多少用于储能?某研究机构还煞有介事地预测宁德时代2060年储能业务收入,谁知道那时候还有没有锂!\n目前运营的化学储能项目,90%采用的是锂电池。除资源瓶颈,锂电池用于储能还有两大障碍——\n一是安全性/可靠性。天太冷,储存的电量会被“消灭”;天太热,可能会爆炸。电动汽车、电动自行车爆炸自燃的案例数不胜数:2021年,特斯拉澳大利亚储能电站重达13吨的锂电池发生爆炸,大火烧了三天;北京南四环锂电池储能电站也发生过爆炸事故;近3年内,全球范围内的储能项目发生爆炸和火灾事故多达26起。问题是,全球一共才有几个储能项目,爆炸的概率也太高了。\n有人认为燃气、电也不是绝对安全,锂电池的爆燃危险且先不说,但各地纷纷禁止电动车室内充电,没禁用燃气、用电!\n二是循环寿命太短。花巨资建的储能电站(即便用循环寿命更高的磷酸铁锂电池),每天充放一次,用十年八年就Game 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","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$就问你们服不服,半个小时就干回来了[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841000286","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3516593271667128","authorId":"3516593271667128","name":"晓宇哦哦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/050ecdcbf1bbd49cd131f5ad5796fb50","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3516593271667128","idStr":"3516593271667128"},"content":"有你们哭的时候","text":"有你们哭的时候","html":"有你们哭的时候"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":838368614,"gmtCreate":1629375362038,"gmtModify":1629375362038,"author":{"id":"3453237543221504","authorId":"3453237543221504","name":"城西币加锁","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7752beebb0e1d5792f5bcf86b8076ef3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3453237543221504","idStr":"3453237543221504"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你们不要,我自己要。","listText":"你们不要,我自己要。","text":"你们不要,我自己要。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838368614","repostId":"1184586194","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184586194","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629373999,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184586194?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 19:53","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"腾讯今日回购18万股,涉资7696.5138万港元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184586194","media":"金十数据","summary":"市场消息指$腾讯控股(00700)$今日回购18万股,涉资7696.5138万港元。\n\n\n\n\n\n腾讯控股上次回购是在2019年10月11日,当日回购12万股;当月共回购83万股。11日当日股价收于323.0港元,收涨1.88%,成交量1960.55万股,成交额63.77亿。","content":"<p>市场消息指<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>今日回购18万股,涉资7696.5138万港元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4852a7adbe59896260653e3d54f7575e\" tg-width=\"1461\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>腾讯控股上次回购是在2019年10月11日,当日回购12万股;当月共回购83万股。11日当日股价收于323.0港元,收涨1.88%,成交量1960.55万股,成交额63.77亿。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n腾讯今日回购18万股,涉资7696.5138万港元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-19 19:53 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/100630765><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场消息指腾讯控股今日回购18万股,涉资7696.5138万港元。\n\n腾讯控股上次回购是在2019年10月11日,当日回购12万股;当月共回购83万股。11日当日股价收于323.0港元,收涨1.88%,成交量1960.55万股,成交额63.77亿。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/100630765\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/100630765","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184586194","content_text":"市场消息指腾讯控股今日回购18万股,涉资7696.5138万港元。\n\n腾讯控股上次回购是在2019年10月11日,当日回购12万股;当月共回购83万股。11日当日股价收于323.0港元,收涨1.88%,成交量1960.55万股,成交额63.77亿。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":898705784,"gmtCreate":1628520045048,"gmtModify":1628520045048,"author":{"id":"3453237543221504","authorId":"3453237543221504","name":"城西币加锁","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7752beebb0e1d5792f5bcf86b8076ef3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3453237543221504","idStr":"3453237543221504"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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