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疆土之王
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疆土之王
2017-12-09
堵一把大的
$迅雷(XNET)$ 几乎所有钱都投到迅雷里面了,今天收了10万个币,成本4.8,还有5万刀股票,我的理由与判断,1,迅雷占了中国区区块链这一高地,已经具有一定影响力,影响力代表区块链价值,2,实名制短看确实利空,但要在中国区生存是必须的,长期利好。3,只要玩客是区块链技术,只要它饱和15亿不能超发,在后期越来越大影响下,币值一定升值。4,虽然实名制,但我认为交易平台解决这一问题不会太难。5,风险是必然的,如果真如那谁所说根本不是区块链,就是个积分系统,那我就惨了,富贵险中求。祝我好运吧😊
堵一把大的
疆土之王
2020-06-23
$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$
不清仓会怎样?说是退到otc,那么老虎怎么交易otc?这个谁给解读解读?笃定美股会大跌,那我为毛要割肉。太tm疼了,两万多刀啊。【TIGER】温馨提示:尊敬的客户,您当前的持仓中可能涉及以下即将退市的标的:UGLD、USLV、DGLD、DSLV、UGAZ、DGAZ、ZIV、VIIX和TVIX。美东时间2020年7月10日(交易关闭日)后上述标的将停止在交易所的交易。即日起将不接受任何开仓单,并且将于美东时间6月23日至6月25日期间逐步调高多空维持保证金至100%。退市之后平仓单仍可提交至OTC市场,但无法保证OTC市场的成交状况。请您务必提前关注持仓情况,并评估交易策略。
疆土之王
2020-04-25
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
买原油不如买这个,至少不会负[捂脸] [喷血]
疆土之王
2018-01-18
出奇的安静啊。
$寺库(SECO)$被套在12,看样子要割肉走人了。
出奇的安静啊。
疆土之王
2017-12-12
这庄真不行
$迅雷(XNET)$ 不敢往上拉,12左右出货,真辣鸡,迅雷一次抢购200万台,就10亿市值,怎么算都支撑了,迅雷到20没毛病。
这庄真不行
疆土之王
2017-11-22
$迅雷(XNET)$ 玩客云钱包要实名了,这利空啊,今天要大跌。空军要起飞了。
疆土之王
2017-12-16
看后续有没有出口了。
$迅雷(XNET)$链客最大价值应该就是交易价值,不让交易,现在看的确没价值,但这世上有不让交易的东西吗?迅雷自刀,应该是被zf强制一波,CEX已经明确下架了。但我预计后起之秀会立刻跟上,实名制对交易平台来讲不算什么问题。
看后续有没有出口了。
疆土之王
2017-11-27
$红黄蓝(RYB)$ 人性如此,没办法,中国没有美国人的独立思维,你冷静想想,红黄蓝不过是个个例,这种事出了,该抓得抓,该罚的罚,然后呢,日子还要继续过啊,小孩难道不上幼儿园了吗?还的上啊,只是要吸取教训,全覆盖监控加上家长随时手机查看监控,应该是解决这个问题的好办法,红黄蓝不会破产,不会如你期望的那样倒掉,散了吧。好好想想,你在资本市场,谈什么个人感情。
疆土之王
2020-03-21
$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$
这货是正股ETF吗?感觉跟大盘走势啊,有没有可能回去40?长期能拿吗?
疆土之王
2020-03-20
$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$
油价28了,去你大爷的,正常三倍价都1快多了。花旗就是tm的集资诈骗。
疆土之王
2018-01-10
这股能到20
$柯达(KODK)$信不信你们自己想,不为别的,柯达2个字就够了,一个全球影响力的品牌,区块链出来都是十倍股,这才哪到哪啊。
这股能到20
疆土之王
2017-11-30
拿住,拿住,拿住
$迅雷(XNET)$于某日已彻底失败,已被排出迅雷,过了这波估价还的回20去。
拿住,拿住,拿住
疆土之王
2017-11-29
来来来,大家猜猜,盘后的财报会不会好看。
$红黄蓝(RYB)$ 如题。
来来来,大家猜猜,盘后的财报会不会好看。
疆土之王
2020-03-27
$金矿指数三倍做多ETF(JNUG)$
3倍,确实刺激[流泪] 上上下下的过山车🎢
疆土之王
2020-03-20
$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$
完全看不懂(#-.-)这个是什么骚操作,还有那个9.79的进进出出?
疆土之王
2017-11-30
到底了吗?
$迅雷(XNET)$ 昨晚手贱15入了1万,今天看风头不对亏2000跑了,11是低吗?今天不会跌破10吧。
到底了吗?
疆土之王
2017-12-15
空池了,看我上个贴,要上车抓紧
$迅雷(XNET)$今天飞18,妥妥的。
空池了,看我上个贴,要上车抓紧
疆土之王
2020-10-30
$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$
大盘跌了2个点,这玩意才5个点,大盘涨1个点,这玩意跌11个点。你是大神>o<,这钱💰赚的有难度,我不玩了(ノಥ益ಥ)。
疆土之王
2017-12-22
今天又是一天血雨腥风
$迅雷(XNET)$比特币跌50%,所以数字币都暴跌。迅雷危险了。
今天又是一天血雨腥风
疆土之王
2017-12-19
这股完全没成交啊,就是空,都不知道空给谁
$红黄蓝(RYB)$完全,落寞了。不是公司回购嘛?没下文了。
这股完全没成交啊,就是空,都不知道空给谁
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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","text":"$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$这玩意也太不对称(~_~;)了,涨标普500涨1.1跌幅10.x 标普跌1.5只涨6.x[喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308482221","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":954651270,"gmtCreate":1592917596390,"gmtModify":1704200576910,"author":{"id":"3451913221266797","authorId":"3451913221266797","name":"疆土之王","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451913221266797","authorIdStr":"3451913221266797"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a>不清仓会怎样?说是退到otc,那么老虎怎么交易otc?这个谁给解读解读?笃定美股会大跌,那我为毛要割肉。太tm疼了,两万多刀啊。【TIGER】温馨提示:尊敬的客户,您当前的持仓中可能涉及以下即将退市的标的:UGLD、USLV、DGLD、DSLV、UGAZ、DGAZ、ZIV、VIIX和TVIX。美东时间2020年7月10日(交易关闭日)后上述标的将停止在交易所的交易。即日起将不接受任何开仓单,并且将于美东时间6月23日至6月25日期间逐步调高多空维持保证金至100%。退市之后平仓单仍可提交至OTC市场,但无法保证OTC市场的成交状况。请您务必提前关注持仓情况,并评估交易策略。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a>不清仓会怎样?说是退到otc,那么老虎怎么交易otc?这个谁给解读解读?笃定美股会大跌,那我为毛要割肉。太tm疼了,两万多刀啊。【TIGER】温馨提示:尊敬的客户,您当前的持仓中可能涉及以下即将退市的标的:UGLD、USLV、DGLD、DSLV、UGAZ、DGAZ、ZIV、VIIX和TVIX。美东时间2020年7月10日(交易关闭日)后上述标的将停止在交易所的交易。即日起将不接受任何开仓单,并且将于美东时间6月23日至6月25日期间逐步调高多空维持保证金至100%。退市之后平仓单仍可提交至OTC市场,但无法保证OTC市场的成交状况。请您务必提前关注持仓情况,并评估交易策略。","text":"$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$不清仓会怎样?说是退到otc,那么老虎怎么交易otc?这个谁给解读解读?笃定美股会大跌,那我为毛要割肉。太tm疼了,两万多刀啊。【TIGER】温馨提示:尊敬的客户,您当前的持仓中可能涉及以下即将退市的标的:UGLD、USLV、DGLD、DSLV、UGAZ、DGAZ、ZIV、VIIX和TVIX。美东时间2020年7月10日(交易关闭日)后上述标的将停止在交易所的交易。即日起将不接受任何开仓单,并且将于美东时间6月23日至6月25日期间逐步调高多空维持保证金至100%。退市之后平仓单仍可提交至OTC市场,但无法保证OTC市场的成交状况。请您务必提前关注持仓情况,并评估交易策略。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/954651270","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3545957180569319","authorId":"3545957180569319","name":"两点钟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3545957180569319","authorIdStr":"3545957180569319"},"content":"老虎不支持otc交易,太tm坑了,我问了","text":"老虎不支持otc交易,太tm坑了,我问了","html":"老虎不支持otc交易,太tm坑了,我问了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":952207737,"gmtCreate":1591972349029,"gmtModify":1704197867847,"author":{"id":"3451913221266797","authorId":"3451913221266797","name":"疆土之王","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451913221266797","authorIdStr":"3451913221266797"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"分析的很全面。","listText":"分析的很全面。","text":"分析的很全面。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/952207737","repostId":"1199213467","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199213467","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1591968078,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199213467?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-12 21:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"纳指的新高,老虎的屁股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199213467","media":"格隆汇","summary":"1\n美股过山车,太刺激了!\n前两天,还在感叹纳指凭什么突破10000点大关,反弹50%。没想到,活久见,昨晚我们差一点再次见证历史。道指跌6.9%,差一点触及熔断线,创下百年道指跌幅排行榜第25位,纳","content":"<p><b><span>1</span></b></p>\n<p><span>美股过山车,太刺激了!</span></p>\n<p><span>前两天,还在感叹纳指凭什么突破10000点大关,反弹50%。没想到,活久见,昨晚我们差一点再次见证历史。</span><b><span>道指跌6.9%,差一点触及熔断线,创下百年道指跌幅排行榜第25位</span></b><span>,纳指和标普500也均重挫超过5%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fc696d4b3c18fce0100a0fef482a569\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"301\"></p>\n<p><span>恐慌暴跌之下,VIX波动率再度突破40大关,一夜增幅高达48%。料想,3月崩盘那会,VIX一度突破85,频频出现单日增幅破40%的情况。</span></p>\n<p><span>昨日,盘面上金融银行股的血流成河引起了我的注意。年初至今,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>重挫近50%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>、合众银行累跌近40%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>跌30%左右。</span><b><span>银行股极度不被市场看好,但又与经济紧密相连,似乎暗示着什么……</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b218d094f7f8230608efc6dbcff3630\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"444\"></p>\n<p><span>别急,今日盘前,美股主要股指期货上涨了2%左右。欧洲主要国家股指昨日均暴跌4%,今日低开后又反弹了一些。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86d5cc0640297e9bef6a834c46497994\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"334\"></p>\n<p><span>11-12日,香港恒指累跌3%,日经225和韩国综指均累跌3.5%左右。A股要刚一些,沪指2日累跌近1%,今日大幅低开1.5%并一度翻红但最终小幅收绿。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>全球一派欢腾的大反弹,被昨日突然的暴跌吓坏了胆,好像又重新来到了十字路口</span></b><span>,虽然大跌之后欧美市场又小幅反弹一点。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30690333d8be45d9c0c51c5d3a377972\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"534\"></p>\n<p><b><span>2</span></b></p>\n<p><span>为了深挖美股交易逻辑,不妨先聊一聊为何美股此前2个月会有如此咋舌的大反弹——纳指50%,标普、道指40%。</span></p>\n<p><span>2月底到3月23日,道指、标普500、纳指分别累计重挫37%、34%、30%,使得股票价格已经计入相当糟糕的经济前景。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>未来,预期的宏观经济表现只要有所改善,没有更糟糕的了,股市便会有反弹的动力。</span></b><span>这从多个指标可以出现端倪。</span></p>\n<p><span>据美国劳工部披露的数据,截止6月6日,初次申请失业金人数录得154.2万人,已经是连续第10周下滑。而最为最夸张的时候发生在3月21日和3月28日当周,后面就逐周递减了,处于修复状态。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0de815a349c16e9697a2ee8268977f9c\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"692\"></p>\n<p><span>另外,非农就业人数上周五闹了一个乌龙,但最终的数据是仍然要比预期要好。调整后的5月失业率为16.3%,比4月份的20%,也要好。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>不管是10连降的初次失业金领取人数、还是非农就业人数、失业率,均印证美国劳动市场持续触底反弹。</span></b><span>加之有序的复产复工,市场预计经济数据环比会有越来越好的表现。</span></p>\n<p><span>看到没,资本市场交易的是预期,交易的是未来,而不是当下的数据本身有那么恐怖,尽管不少数据仍然处于“大萧条”时期。</span></p>\n<p><span>当然,这波美股的大反弹,离不开美联储的大放水。有人说,</span><b><span>美联储是父母,而市场是噩梦后醒来的孩子。孩子最终会平静下来,但父母也会帮助他们冷静下来。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>从3月到5月底,不足2个月时间,美联储资产负债表扩表了3万亿美元,目前已经高达7.2万亿美元。</span></p>\n<p><span>这是什么一个概念?</span></p>\n<p><span>在1970-2007年,30年时间美联储扩表1万多亿美元;在2008-2019年,美联储也是扩表1万多亿美元。</span><b><span>现在,短短2个月时间,扩表3万亿,相当于美国2019年GDP的15%。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>美联储似乎没有底线,不仅买政府债券,还下场买企业债券。美联储还直接入市购买信用工具,及时阻止了金融流动性危机,也让信用风险爆发导致规模性违约的可能性大大降低了。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad1e037781fa95994cc13e01c41c4a43\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"518\"></p>\n<p><span>美联储放出的水,小部分会去实体经济,但大部分资金会在金融系统循环套利,助推资本市场的价格。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>3</span></b></p>\n<p><span>我们明白了大幅暴涨的逻辑之后,再来看看此次暴跌行情,仍然从经济宏观面、以及货币政策两大维度来展开。</span></p>\n<p><span>刚刚过去的会议,美联储预计2020年底GDP增速预期中值为-6.5%。但成员间的分歧巨大,预测增速最差的是-10%,增速最好的是-4.2%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9745fcf6c5477c8e6f1dc5241912c58d\" tg-width=\"748\" tg-height=\"399\"></p>\n<p><span>美联储在声明中仍对中期经济前景做出了“相当大的风险”的评估,暗示美联储预计经济不会出现“V型”强劲复苏,也给市场传达了一种经济的不确定性。</span></p>\n<p><span>美国一季度GDP为-5%,此前多家机构预测二季度将下滑40%,如果全年是-6.5%,那么三四季度要强劲V型反转才行,并且提前是美国疫情还不会二次大规模爆发。但极力避免,或不愿看到的事情,却往往容易出现纰漏。</span></p>\n<p><span>当下,乔治·弗洛伊德之死的示威抗议,席卷全美20多个州70余座城市。虽然骚乱已经持续了17天,但似乎离全面平息还尚远。</span></p>\n<p><span>6月11日,特朗普突然发了一条推特:“国内恐怖分子已经占领了西雅图”。此前8日,美国西雅图市内的示威者占领了警察局,还划定6个街区宣称成立所谓的“自治区”。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/313ac66485be90d576fb522bf464fe64\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"180\"></p>\n<p><span>(来源:特朗普推特)</span></p>\n<p><span>示威抗议,骚乱持续,人员聚集。这也难怪美国公共卫生局局长杰罗姆·亚当斯会表示,</span><b><span>“根据疾病传播的方式,我们完全有理由预期,我们将看到新的聚集性病例和潜在的新爆发。”</span></b></p>\n<p><span>并且,当前的美国疫情再度燃起已经有些苗头。11日,德克萨斯州公布了2504例新增病例,是疫情爆发以来的单日最高纪录。不仅如此,过去两周,美国21个州新冠确诊人数都出现上升,至少9个州是激增,比如亚利桑那州。</span></p>\n<p><span>星星之火,可以燎原。</span><b><span>现在有一些二次爆发的苗头,如果延续下来,支撑美股此前报复性反弹的基本面持续改善的逻辑会出现松动,但还需持续观察。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>除此之外,本周三,经合组织(OECD)发布最新经济展望,做出了严峻的评估,预测今年全球经济将萎缩6%,比世界银行本周早些时候的预测还要严重。</span><b><span>OECD预计,全球经济将陷入百年来和平时期最严重的衰退。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>OECD还称,今年爆发第二波疫情,那么全球经济将萎缩7.6%。预测美国经济萎缩7.3%,如果爆发疫情恐要萎缩8.5%。欧元区经济今年料下滑9.1%,如有疫情将萎缩11.5%。</span></p>\n<p><span>不管是美联储、还是世行、经合组织,对于今年的美国经济并不看好,甚至略显悲观。然而,这是金融市场定价非常重要的锚。</span></p>\n<p><span>再看货币政策,美联储并没有松口,表示还将至少维持当前速度增持国债与资产支持证券(MBS),目标是每月购买800亿美元的美国国债,以及400亿美元的抵押支持证券(MBS)。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>有美国机构预计,美联储的资产负债表到今年年底不会低于10万亿美元,相当于中国央行资产规模的2倍之多。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>美联储继续保持当前的放水水位,不会停下来,并没有明显的边际紧缩迹象。这从美国债券市场能找到一些蛛丝马迹。</span></p>\n<p><span>6月8日以来,美国10年期国债收益率从0.9%快速坠落至当前的0.689%,下跌21.1个基点,5日累计下跌23.44%,其中11日当天下跌超过11%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c29c222e34e214125122b06f2993cd5e\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"511\"></p>\n<p><span>收益率下滑,反之国债价格上涨,而后者定价几乎唯一取决于折现率,后者可大约等同于利率。从市场交易的角度来看,似乎隐含着美联储的大规模放水中短期不会撤出。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>美联储此前的货币政策很夸张,已有所Price in,但没有进一步的激进举措。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>综合来看,两者合力的方向中性偏下,稍稍偏向负面,接下来美国资本市场的表现会有一些压力。但我并不认为会重现3月的抛售潮。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>4</span></b></p>\n<p><span>下面这张图在网上传播很广——(蓝线:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>;黑线:目前美股的标普500指数;黄线:剔除五大科技股的标普500指数。)</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f3d410016bd186fd6d6c9861ff1cf50\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"505\"></p>\n<p><span>当前,FAAMG的市值已经占到了标普500的20%,超越互联网泡沫时期的18%,同时也是纳指的最大的5大权重。本轮5大科技龙头大幅反弹,是带动三大指数快速走强的重要引擎。</span></p>\n<p><span>一方面,受到疫情影响小,有的的公司(比如亚马逊、微软)反而是利好外,还有一个持续回购的逻辑。,过去3个月科技公司宣告的回购规模达到650亿美元,而其他绝大多数行业已经早早停止了回购。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34a2a8104ccf32988534bdd34a61b6f\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"524\"></p>\n<p><span>这可见本轮美股大幅反弹,有些虚的成份,其结构并不那么健康,本身就蕴含着不小泡沫。</span><b><span>并且,本轮反弹,大佬机构并没有太多参与,反倒是美国散户“后浪”在奔涌。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>据媒体报道,一季度美股经纪商TD Ameritrade,新增零售账户60.8万户,同比大增249%。另外,Robinhood当季流入银证转账资金创历史新高,日均股票交易量较去年Q4暴增300%左右。</span></p>\n<p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>此前的调研结果也显示,</span><b><span>年轻的散户在个股交易方面非常活跃,其活跃程度是2000年科技泡沫以来最高的。</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>人多扎堆的地方,不太好。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>华尔街有句谚语:Sell In May And Go Away。大致意思是5月清仓,然后远离市场,跟A股的“五穷六绝”差不多。</span><b><span>我这里改一改,现在减仓一些,甚至清仓离场,或许才是上上策。</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>黑天鹅频发的时代,多留点现金子弹,准没错。</span></b><span>要知道股神巴菲特准备了将近10000亿人民币呢!</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>纳指的新高,老虎的屁股</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n纳指的新高,老虎的屁股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-06-12 21:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><span>1</span></b></p>\n<p><span>美股过山车,太刺激了!</span></p>\n<p><span>前两天,还在感叹纳指凭什么突破10000点大关,反弹50%。没想到,活久见,昨晚我们差一点再次见证历史。</span><b><span>道指跌6.9%,差一点触及熔断线,创下百年道指跌幅排行榜第25位</span></b><span>,纳指和标普500也均重挫超过5%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fc696d4b3c18fce0100a0fef482a569\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"301\"></p>\n<p><span>恐慌暴跌之下,VIX波动率再度突破40大关,一夜增幅高达48%。料想,3月崩盘那会,VIX一度突破85,频频出现单日增幅破40%的情况。</span></p>\n<p><span>昨日,盘面上金融银行股的血流成河引起了我的注意。年初至今,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>重挫近50%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>、合众银行累跌近40%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>跌30%左右。</span><b><span>银行股极度不被市场看好,但又与经济紧密相连,似乎暗示着什么……</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b218d094f7f8230608efc6dbcff3630\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"444\"></p>\n<p><span>别急,今日盘前,美股主要股指期货上涨了2%左右。欧洲主要国家股指昨日均暴跌4%,今日低开后又反弹了一些。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86d5cc0640297e9bef6a834c46497994\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"334\"></p>\n<p><span>11-12日,香港恒指累跌3%,日经225和韩国综指均累跌3.5%左右。A股要刚一些,沪指2日累跌近1%,今日大幅低开1.5%并一度翻红但最终小幅收绿。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>全球一派欢腾的大反弹,被昨日突然的暴跌吓坏了胆,好像又重新来到了十字路口</span></b><span>,虽然大跌之后欧美市场又小幅反弹一点。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30690333d8be45d9c0c51c5d3a377972\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"534\"></p>\n<p><b><span>2</span></b></p>\n<p><span>为了深挖美股交易逻辑,不妨先聊一聊为何美股此前2个月会有如此咋舌的大反弹——纳指50%,标普、道指40%。</span></p>\n<p><span>2月底到3月23日,道指、标普500、纳指分别累计重挫37%、34%、30%,使得股票价格已经计入相当糟糕的经济前景。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>未来,预期的宏观经济表现只要有所改善,没有更糟糕的了,股市便会有反弹的动力。</span></b><span>这从多个指标可以出现端倪。</span></p>\n<p><span>据美国劳工部披露的数据,截止6月6日,初次申请失业金人数录得154.2万人,已经是连续第10周下滑。而最为最夸张的时候发生在3月21日和3月28日当周,后面就逐周递减了,处于修复状态。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0de815a349c16e9697a2ee8268977f9c\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"692\"></p>\n<p><span>另外,非农就业人数上周五闹了一个乌龙,但最终的数据是仍然要比预期要好。调整后的5月失业率为16.3%,比4月份的20%,也要好。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>不管是10连降的初次失业金领取人数、还是非农就业人数、失业率,均印证美国劳动市场持续触底反弹。</span></b><span>加之有序的复产复工,市场预计经济数据环比会有越来越好的表现。</span></p>\n<p><span>看到没,资本市场交易的是预期,交易的是未来,而不是当下的数据本身有那么恐怖,尽管不少数据仍然处于“大萧条”时期。</span></p>\n<p><span>当然,这波美股的大反弹,离不开美联储的大放水。有人说,</span><b><span>美联储是父母,而市场是噩梦后醒来的孩子。孩子最终会平静下来,但父母也会帮助他们冷静下来。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>从3月到5月底,不足2个月时间,美联储资产负债表扩表了3万亿美元,目前已经高达7.2万亿美元。</span></p>\n<p><span>这是什么一个概念?</span></p>\n<p><span>在1970-2007年,30年时间美联储扩表1万多亿美元;在2008-2019年,美联储也是扩表1万多亿美元。</span><b><span>现在,短短2个月时间,扩表3万亿,相当于美国2019年GDP的15%。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>美联储似乎没有底线,不仅买政府债券,还下场买企业债券。美联储还直接入市购买信用工具,及时阻止了金融流动性危机,也让信用风险爆发导致规模性违约的可能性大大降低了。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad1e037781fa95994cc13e01c41c4a43\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"518\"></p>\n<p><span>美联储放出的水,小部分会去实体经济,但大部分资金会在金融系统循环套利,助推资本市场的价格。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>3</span></b></p>\n<p><span>我们明白了大幅暴涨的逻辑之后,再来看看此次暴跌行情,仍然从经济宏观面、以及货币政策两大维度来展开。</span></p>\n<p><span>刚刚过去的会议,美联储预计2020年底GDP增速预期中值为-6.5%。但成员间的分歧巨大,预测增速最差的是-10%,增速最好的是-4.2%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9745fcf6c5477c8e6f1dc5241912c58d\" tg-width=\"748\" tg-height=\"399\"></p>\n<p><span>美联储在声明中仍对中期经济前景做出了“相当大的风险”的评估,暗示美联储预计经济不会出现“V型”强劲复苏,也给市场传达了一种经济的不确定性。</span></p>\n<p><span>美国一季度GDP为-5%,此前多家机构预测二季度将下滑40%,如果全年是-6.5%,那么三四季度要强劲V型反转才行,并且提前是美国疫情还不会二次大规模爆发。但极力避免,或不愿看到的事情,却往往容易出现纰漏。</span></p>\n<p><span>当下,乔治·弗洛伊德之死的示威抗议,席卷全美20多个州70余座城市。虽然骚乱已经持续了17天,但似乎离全面平息还尚远。</span></p>\n<p><span>6月11日,特朗普突然发了一条推特:“国内恐怖分子已经占领了西雅图”。此前8日,美国西雅图市内的示威者占领了警察局,还划定6个街区宣称成立所谓的“自治区”。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/313ac66485be90d576fb522bf464fe64\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"180\"></p>\n<p><span>(来源:特朗普推特)</span></p>\n<p><span>示威抗议,骚乱持续,人员聚集。这也难怪美国公共卫生局局长杰罗姆·亚当斯会表示,</span><b><span>“根据疾病传播的方式,我们完全有理由预期,我们将看到新的聚集性病例和潜在的新爆发。”</span></b></p>\n<p><span>并且,当前的美国疫情再度燃起已经有些苗头。11日,德克萨斯州公布了2504例新增病例,是疫情爆发以来的单日最高纪录。不仅如此,过去两周,美国21个州新冠确诊人数都出现上升,至少9个州是激增,比如亚利桑那州。</span></p>\n<p><span>星星之火,可以燎原。</span><b><span>现在有一些二次爆发的苗头,如果延续下来,支撑美股此前报复性反弹的基本面持续改善的逻辑会出现松动,但还需持续观察。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>除此之外,本周三,经合组织(OECD)发布最新经济展望,做出了严峻的评估,预测今年全球经济将萎缩6%,比世界银行本周早些时候的预测还要严重。</span><b><span>OECD预计,全球经济将陷入百年来和平时期最严重的衰退。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>OECD还称,今年爆发第二波疫情,那么全球经济将萎缩7.6%。预测美国经济萎缩7.3%,如果爆发疫情恐要萎缩8.5%。欧元区经济今年料下滑9.1%,如有疫情将萎缩11.5%。</span></p>\n<p><span>不管是美联储、还是世行、经合组织,对于今年的美国经济并不看好,甚至略显悲观。然而,这是金融市场定价非常重要的锚。</span></p>\n<p><span>再看货币政策,美联储并没有松口,表示还将至少维持当前速度增持国债与资产支持证券(MBS),目标是每月购买800亿美元的美国国债,以及400亿美元的抵押支持证券(MBS)。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>有美国机构预计,美联储的资产负债表到今年年底不会低于10万亿美元,相当于中国央行资产规模的2倍之多。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>美联储继续保持当前的放水水位,不会停下来,并没有明显的边际紧缩迹象。这从美国债券市场能找到一些蛛丝马迹。</span></p>\n<p><span>6月8日以来,美国10年期国债收益率从0.9%快速坠落至当前的0.689%,下跌21.1个基点,5日累计下跌23.44%,其中11日当天下跌超过11%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c29c222e34e214125122b06f2993cd5e\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"511\"></p>\n<p><span>收益率下滑,反之国债价格上涨,而后者定价几乎唯一取决于折现率,后者可大约等同于利率。从市场交易的角度来看,似乎隐含着美联储的大规模放水中短期不会撤出。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>美联储此前的货币政策很夸张,已有所Price in,但没有进一步的激进举措。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>综合来看,两者合力的方向中性偏下,稍稍偏向负面,接下来美国资本市场的表现会有一些压力。但我并不认为会重现3月的抛售潮。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>4</span></b></p>\n<p><span>下面这张图在网上传播很广——(蓝线:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>;黑线:目前美股的标普500指数;黄线:剔除五大科技股的标普500指数。)</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f3d410016bd186fd6d6c9861ff1cf50\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"505\"></p>\n<p><span>当前,FAAMG的市值已经占到了标普500的20%,超越互联网泡沫时期的18%,同时也是纳指的最大的5大权重。本轮5大科技龙头大幅反弹,是带动三大指数快速走强的重要引擎。</span></p>\n<p><span>一方面,受到疫情影响小,有的的公司(比如亚马逊、微软)反而是利好外,还有一个持续回购的逻辑。,过去3个月科技公司宣告的回购规模达到650亿美元,而其他绝大多数行业已经早早停止了回购。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34a2a8104ccf32988534bdd34a61b6f\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"524\"></p>\n<p><span>这可见本轮美股大幅反弹,有些虚的成份,其结构并不那么健康,本身就蕴含着不小泡沫。</span><b><span>并且,本轮反弹,大佬机构并没有太多参与,反倒是美国散户“后浪”在奔涌。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>据媒体报道,一季度美股经纪商TD Ameritrade,新增零售账户60.8万户,同比大增249%。另外,Robinhood当季流入银证转账资金创历史新高,日均股票交易量较去年Q4暴增300%左右。</span></p>\n<p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>此前的调研结果也显示,</span><b><span>年轻的散户在个股交易方面非常活跃,其活跃程度是2000年科技泡沫以来最高的。</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>人多扎堆的地方,不太好。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>华尔街有句谚语:Sell In May And Go Away。大致意思是5月清仓,然后远离市场,跟A股的“五穷六绝”差不多。</span><b><span>我这里改一改,现在减仓一些,甚至清仓离场,或许才是上上策。</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>黑天鹅频发的时代,多留点现金子弹,准没错。</span></b><span>要知道股神巴菲特准备了将近10000亿人民币呢!</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44fc2c33800eae6e4f0bbec10e83a1a5","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199213467","content_text":"1\n美股过山车,太刺激了!\n前两天,还在感叹纳指凭什么突破10000点大关,反弹50%。没想到,活久见,昨晚我们差一点再次见证历史。道指跌6.9%,差一点触及熔断线,创下百年道指跌幅排行榜第25位,纳指和标普500也均重挫超过5%。\n\n恐慌暴跌之下,VIX波动率再度突破40大关,一夜增幅高达48%。料想,3月崩盘那会,VIX一度突破85,频频出现单日增幅破40%的情况。\n昨日,盘面上金融银行股的血流成河引起了我的注意。年初至今,富国银行重挫近50%,花旗、合众银行累跌近40%,美国银行、摩根大通跌30%左右。银行股极度不被市场看好,但又与经济紧密相连,似乎暗示着什么……\n\n别急,今日盘前,美股主要股指期货上涨了2%左右。欧洲主要国家股指昨日均暴跌4%,今日低开后又反弹了一些。\n\n11-12日,香港恒指累跌3%,日经225和韩国综指均累跌3.5%左右。A股要刚一些,沪指2日累跌近1%,今日大幅低开1.5%并一度翻红但最终小幅收绿。\n全球一派欢腾的大反弹,被昨日突然的暴跌吓坏了胆,好像又重新来到了十字路口,虽然大跌之后欧美市场又小幅反弹一点。\n\n2\n为了深挖美股交易逻辑,不妨先聊一聊为何美股此前2个月会有如此咋舌的大反弹——纳指50%,标普、道指40%。\n2月底到3月23日,道指、标普500、纳指分别累计重挫37%、34%、30%,使得股票价格已经计入相当糟糕的经济前景。\n未来,预期的宏观经济表现只要有所改善,没有更糟糕的了,股市便会有反弹的动力。这从多个指标可以出现端倪。\n据美国劳工部披露的数据,截止6月6日,初次申请失业金人数录得154.2万人,已经是连续第10周下滑。而最为最夸张的时候发生在3月21日和3月28日当周,后面就逐周递减了,处于修复状态。\n\n另外,非农就业人数上周五闹了一个乌龙,但最终的数据是仍然要比预期要好。调整后的5月失业率为16.3%,比4月份的20%,也要好。\n不管是10连降的初次失业金领取人数、还是非农就业人数、失业率,均印证美国劳动市场持续触底反弹。加之有序的复产复工,市场预计经济数据环比会有越来越好的表现。\n看到没,资本市场交易的是预期,交易的是未来,而不是当下的数据本身有那么恐怖,尽管不少数据仍然处于“大萧条”时期。\n当然,这波美股的大反弹,离不开美联储的大放水。有人说,美联储是父母,而市场是噩梦后醒来的孩子。孩子最终会平静下来,但父母也会帮助他们冷静下来。\n从3月到5月底,不足2个月时间,美联储资产负债表扩表了3万亿美元,目前已经高达7.2万亿美元。\n这是什么一个概念?\n在1970-2007年,30年时间美联储扩表1万多亿美元;在2008-2019年,美联储也是扩表1万多亿美元。现在,短短2个月时间,扩表3万亿,相当于美国2019年GDP的15%。\n美联储似乎没有底线,不仅买政府债券,还下场买企业债券。美联储还直接入市购买信用工具,及时阻止了金融流动性危机,也让信用风险爆发导致规模性违约的可能性大大降低了。\n\n美联储放出的水,小部分会去实体经济,但大部分资金会在金融系统循环套利,助推资本市场的价格。\n3\n我们明白了大幅暴涨的逻辑之后,再来看看此次暴跌行情,仍然从经济宏观面、以及货币政策两大维度来展开。\n刚刚过去的会议,美联储预计2020年底GDP增速预期中值为-6.5%。但成员间的分歧巨大,预测增速最差的是-10%,增速最好的是-4.2%。\n\n美联储在声明中仍对中期经济前景做出了“相当大的风险”的评估,暗示美联储预计经济不会出现“V型”强劲复苏,也给市场传达了一种经济的不确定性。\n美国一季度GDP为-5%,此前多家机构预测二季度将下滑40%,如果全年是-6.5%,那么三四季度要强劲V型反转才行,并且提前是美国疫情还不会二次大规模爆发。但极力避免,或不愿看到的事情,却往往容易出现纰漏。\n当下,乔治·弗洛伊德之死的示威抗议,席卷全美20多个州70余座城市。虽然骚乱已经持续了17天,但似乎离全面平息还尚远。\n6月11日,特朗普突然发了一条推特:“国内恐怖分子已经占领了西雅图”。此前8日,美国西雅图市内的示威者占领了警察局,还划定6个街区宣称成立所谓的“自治区”。\n\n(来源:特朗普推特)\n示威抗议,骚乱持续,人员聚集。这也难怪美国公共卫生局局长杰罗姆·亚当斯会表示,“根据疾病传播的方式,我们完全有理由预期,我们将看到新的聚集性病例和潜在的新爆发。”\n并且,当前的美国疫情再度燃起已经有些苗头。11日,德克萨斯州公布了2504例新增病例,是疫情爆发以来的单日最高纪录。不仅如此,过去两周,美国21个州新冠确诊人数都出现上升,至少9个州是激增,比如亚利桑那州。\n星星之火,可以燎原。现在有一些二次爆发的苗头,如果延续下来,支撑美股此前报复性反弹的基本面持续改善的逻辑会出现松动,但还需持续观察。\n除此之外,本周三,经合组织(OECD)发布最新经济展望,做出了严峻的评估,预测今年全球经济将萎缩6%,比世界银行本周早些时候的预测还要严重。OECD预计,全球经济将陷入百年来和平时期最严重的衰退。\nOECD还称,今年爆发第二波疫情,那么全球经济将萎缩7.6%。预测美国经济萎缩7.3%,如果爆发疫情恐要萎缩8.5%。欧元区经济今年料下滑9.1%,如有疫情将萎缩11.5%。\n不管是美联储、还是世行、经合组织,对于今年的美国经济并不看好,甚至略显悲观。然而,这是金融市场定价非常重要的锚。\n再看货币政策,美联储并没有松口,表示还将至少维持当前速度增持国债与资产支持证券(MBS),目标是每月购买800亿美元的美国国债,以及400亿美元的抵押支持证券(MBS)。\n有美国机构预计,美联储的资产负债表到今年年底不会低于10万亿美元,相当于中国央行资产规模的2倍之多。\n美联储继续保持当前的放水水位,不会停下来,并没有明显的边际紧缩迹象。这从美国债券市场能找到一些蛛丝马迹。\n6月8日以来,美国10年期国债收益率从0.9%快速坠落至当前的0.689%,下跌21.1个基点,5日累计下跌23.44%,其中11日当天下跌超过11%。\n\n收益率下滑,反之国债价格上涨,而后者定价几乎唯一取决于折现率,后者可大约等同于利率。从市场交易的角度来看,似乎隐含着美联储的大规模放水中短期不会撤出。\n美联储此前的货币政策很夸张,已有所Price in,但没有进一步的激进举措。\n综合来看,两者合力的方向中性偏下,稍稍偏向负面,接下来美国资本市场的表现会有一些压力。但我并不认为会重现3月的抛售潮。\n4\n下面这张图在网上传播很广——(蓝线:Facebook、苹果、微软、谷歌、亚马逊;黑线:目前美股的标普500指数;黄线:剔除五大科技股的标普500指数。)\n\n当前,FAAMG的市值已经占到了标普500的20%,超越互联网泡沫时期的18%,同时也是纳指的最大的5大权重。本轮5大科技龙头大幅反弹,是带动三大指数快速走强的重要引擎。\n一方面,受到疫情影响小,有的的公司(比如亚马逊、微软)反而是利好外,还有一个持续回购的逻辑。,过去3个月科技公司宣告的回购规模达到650亿美元,而其他绝大多数行业已经早早停止了回购。\n\n这可见本轮美股大幅反弹,有些虚的成份,其结构并不那么健康,本身就蕴含着不小泡沫。并且,本轮反弹,大佬机构并没有太多参与,反倒是美国散户“后浪”在奔涌。\n据媒体报道,一季度美股经纪商TD Ameritrade,新增零售账户60.8万户,同比大增249%。另外,Robinhood当季流入银证转账资金创历史新高,日均股票交易量较去年Q4暴增300%左右。\n高盛此前的调研结果也显示,年轻的散户在个股交易方面非常活跃,其活跃程度是2000年科技泡沫以来最高的。\n人多扎堆的地方,不太好。\n华尔街有句谚语:Sell In May And Go Away。大致意思是5月清仓,然后远离市场,跟A股的“五穷六绝”差不多。我这里改一改,现在减仓一些,甚至清仓离场,或许才是上上策。\n黑天鹅频发的时代,多留点现金子弹,准没错。要知道股神巴菲特准备了将近10000亿人民币呢!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":956262307,"gmtCreate":1591709590609,"gmtModify":1704196547810,"author":{"id":"3451913221266797","authorId":"3451913221266797","name":"疆土之王","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451913221266797","authorIdStr":"3451913221266797"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很正常,瑞辛当年也这样,实锤了,就一泻千里了。","listText":"很正常,瑞辛当年也这样,实锤了,就一泻千里了。","text":"很正常,瑞辛当年也这样,实锤了,就一泻千里了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/956262307","repostId":"956203973","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":956203973,"gmtCreate":1591693147685,"gmtModify":1704196471806,"author":{"id":"20733756400840","authorId":"20733756400840","name":"我是股神的小腿毛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d2a54ec91bee908d0ce0a36809b8199","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"20733756400840","authorIdStr":"20733756400840"},"themes":[],"title":"【转】跟谁学,缘何被做空却仍在暴涨?","htmlText":"跟谁学在最近三个多月内被4家机构做空9次。而引发质疑的是跟谁学“好到不真实”的业绩:转型一年就实现盈利,成立仅5年就上市,上市不到一年市值就超百亿。而在业绩上,连续六个季度营收同比增长,新季度同比增速达到近4倍;连续八个季度利润同比增长,增速超4倍,即便新东方在线这样“背靠大树好乘凉”的在线教育企业都未实现盈利——跟谁学如果没有财务造假,那么它就是在线教育行业的一个奇迹。 到底是欲戴王冠必承其重,还是事出反常必有妖? 在瑞幸坐实财务造假风波之后,另一家中概股公司“跟谁学”接过了财务造假的热搜。然而,在4家机构9轮做空报告的“地毯式轰炸”下,跟谁学的股价却异常坚挺。过去三个交易日,跟谁学美股股价分别上涨13%,6.84%和4.81%,市值接近100亿美元,数千万的空头仓位高悬盘口。 在线教育是“美国韭菜”心目中的“茅台”。笃信中国人的教育投资的美国机构往往给中国在线教育机构以更高的估值。加上在网易,百度纷纷回归之际,跟谁学成了为数不多以美股作为“独占平台”的热门公司之一。有人觉得,中概股“内卷”形成成交量马太效应,令跟谁学享受到了流动性溢价。 但更有人质疑,或有一部分“神秘资金”接住了空头,将跟谁学股价顶在高位。 针对做空机构的质疑,跟谁学回应称其根本不懂跟谁学的商业模式,然而尴尬的是,不少资深在线教育的人士也表示“看不懂”跟谁学。 曾任新东方在线COO的潘欣提到,在全行业都亏损的情况下,“一直没看懂跟谁学为什么能保持高增长且盈利的”。 为什么在获客成本高昂、普遍亏损的在线教育领域中,跟谁学转型1年就能“逆行业”率先实现盈利?为何跟谁学能有超低的获客成本?为何其业绩能保持3倍以上的超高速增长?至今仍有不少未解之谜。 4家机构9次做空 今年 2 月以来连续三个多月,灰熊、香橼、天蝎、浑水4家做空机构轮番上阵,9次做空跟谁学,创下中概股史上被做空的次数最多的纪录。 先是小有名","listText":"跟谁学在最近三个多月内被4家机构做空9次。而引发质疑的是跟谁学“好到不真实”的业绩:转型一年就实现盈利,成立仅5年就上市,上市不到一年市值就超百亿。而在业绩上,连续六个季度营收同比增长,新季度同比增速达到近4倍;连续八个季度利润同比增长,增速超4倍,即便新东方在线这样“背靠大树好乘凉”的在线教育企业都未实现盈利——跟谁学如果没有财务造假,那么它就是在线教育行业的一个奇迹。 到底是欲戴王冠必承其重,还是事出反常必有妖? 在瑞幸坐实财务造假风波之后,另一家中概股公司“跟谁学”接过了财务造假的热搜。然而,在4家机构9轮做空报告的“地毯式轰炸”下,跟谁学的股价却异常坚挺。过去三个交易日,跟谁学美股股价分别上涨13%,6.84%和4.81%,市值接近100亿美元,数千万的空头仓位高悬盘口。 在线教育是“美国韭菜”心目中的“茅台”。笃信中国人的教育投资的美国机构往往给中国在线教育机构以更高的估值。加上在网易,百度纷纷回归之际,跟谁学成了为数不多以美股作为“独占平台”的热门公司之一。有人觉得,中概股“内卷”形成成交量马太效应,令跟谁学享受到了流动性溢价。 但更有人质疑,或有一部分“神秘资金”接住了空头,将跟谁学股价顶在高位。 针对做空机构的质疑,跟谁学回应称其根本不懂跟谁学的商业模式,然而尴尬的是,不少资深在线教育的人士也表示“看不懂”跟谁学。 曾任新东方在线COO的潘欣提到,在全行业都亏损的情况下,“一直没看懂跟谁学为什么能保持高增长且盈利的”。 为什么在获客成本高昂、普遍亏损的在线教育领域中,跟谁学转型1年就能“逆行业”率先实现盈利?为何跟谁学能有超低的获客成本?为何其业绩能保持3倍以上的超高速增长?至今仍有不少未解之谜。 4家机构9次做空 今年 2 月以来连续三个多月,灰熊、香橼、天蝎、浑水4家做空机构轮番上阵,9次做空跟谁学,创下中概股史上被做空的次数最多的纪录。 先是小有名","text":"跟谁学在最近三个多月内被4家机构做空9次。而引发质疑的是跟谁学“好到不真实”的业绩:转型一年就实现盈利,成立仅5年就上市,上市不到一年市值就超百亿。而在业绩上,连续六个季度营收同比增长,新季度同比增速达到近4倍;连续八个季度利润同比增长,增速超4倍,即便新东方在线这样“背靠大树好乘凉”的在线教育企业都未实现盈利——跟谁学如果没有财务造假,那么它就是在线教育行业的一个奇迹。 到底是欲戴王冠必承其重,还是事出反常必有妖? 在瑞幸坐实财务造假风波之后,另一家中概股公司“跟谁学”接过了财务造假的热搜。然而,在4家机构9轮做空报告的“地毯式轰炸”下,跟谁学的股价却异常坚挺。过去三个交易日,跟谁学美股股价分别上涨13%,6.84%和4.81%,市值接近100亿美元,数千万的空头仓位高悬盘口。 在线教育是“美国韭菜”心目中的“茅台”。笃信中国人的教育投资的美国机构往往给中国在线教育机构以更高的估值。加上在网易,百度纷纷回归之际,跟谁学成了为数不多以美股作为“独占平台”的热门公司之一。有人觉得,中概股“内卷”形成成交量马太效应,令跟谁学享受到了流动性溢价。 但更有人质疑,或有一部分“神秘资金”接住了空头,将跟谁学股价顶在高位。 针对做空机构的质疑,跟谁学回应称其根本不懂跟谁学的商业模式,然而尴尬的是,不少资深在线教育的人士也表示“看不懂”跟谁学。 曾任新东方在线COO的潘欣提到,在全行业都亏损的情况下,“一直没看懂跟谁学为什么能保持高增长且盈利的”。 为什么在获客成本高昂、普遍亏损的在线教育领域中,跟谁学转型1年就能“逆行业”率先实现盈利?为何跟谁学能有超低的获客成本?为何其业绩能保持3倍以上的超高速增长?至今仍有不少未解之谜。 4家机构9次做空 今年 2 月以来连续三个多月,灰熊、香橼、天蝎、浑水4家做空机构轮番上阵,9次做空跟谁学,创下中概股史上被做空的次数最多的纪录。 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[喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/925304055","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3548145911756904","authorId":"3548145911756904","name":"虎啸山霖","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3548145911756904","authorIdStr":"3548145911756904"},"content":"从50跌到这也是扛不住了","text":"从50跌到这也是扛不住了","html":"从50跌到这也是扛不住了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922027363,"gmtCreate":1587395005552,"gmtModify":1704363958848,"author":{"id":"3451913221266797","authorId":"3451913221266797","name":"疆土之王","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451913221266797","authorIdStr":"3451913221266797"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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昨晚手贱15入了1万,今天看风头不对亏2000跑了,11是低吗?今天不会跌破10吧。","text":"$迅雷(XNET)$ 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