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IP属地:黑龙江
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时菲特
11-23
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
还得跌
时菲特
10-17
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
缅甸A股名不虚传
时菲特
10-15
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
散户为什么要参与这个市场,让机构和国家队在里面一起沉没不好吗
时菲特
10-15
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
舒坦
时菲特
10-09
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
眼见他起高楼,眼见他宴宾客,眼见他楼塌了
时菲特
10-08
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
经济形势不转变,一切暴涨都是海市蜃楼,随时崩塌
时菲特
09-30
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
上帝欲其灭亡,必先令其疯狂
时菲特
09-25
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
股市是市场经济的产物,反映的是市场经济的发达程度,政策无法支撑牛市
时菲特
09-18
谷歌牛逼,法制社会牛逼
市场消息:Alphabet赢得欧盟14.9亿欧元反垄断罚款诉讼
时菲特
09-18
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
啊,舒服了
时菲特
09-11
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
舒坦
时菲特
06-21
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
舒坦
时菲特
2023-11-29
巨星陨落,一路走好
伯克希尔哈撒韦:芒格离世,享年99岁
时菲特
2023-01-15
地方债都快爆炸了傻子才会做多。。
抱歉,原内容已删除
时菲特
2022-02-05
$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$
我最得意的操作2月份买入.10月份卖出,成本134期间跌到过46,最后盈利离场
时菲特
2021-10-22
这不是好事吗
抱歉,原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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15:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场消息:Alphabet赢得欧盟14.9亿欧元反垄断罚款诉讼","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174549811","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月18日,市场消息:$谷歌(GOOG)$母公司Alphabet赢得了对欧盟14.9亿欧元反垄断罚款的诉讼。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月18日,市场消息:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet赢得了对欧盟14.9亿欧元反垄断罚款的诉讼。</p><p>2019年,由于被认定存在不公平竞争行为,美国互联网巨头谷歌公司再次收到欧盟反垄断监管机构开出的巨额罚单——14.9亿欧元。这次被罚的具体原因,是欧盟反垄断监管机构认定谷歌违反“在线搜索广告规定”,滥用其主导地位,屏蔽了竞争对手的广告。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场消息:Alphabet赢得欧盟14.9亿欧元反垄断罚款诉讼</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet赢得了对欧盟14.9亿欧元反垄断罚款的诉讼。</p><p>2019年,由于被认定存在不公平竞争行为,美国互联网巨头谷歌公司再次收到欧盟反垄断监管机构开出的巨额罚单——14.9亿欧元。这次被罚的具体原因,是欧盟反垄断监管机构认定谷歌违反“在线搜索广告规定”,滥用其主导地位,屏蔽了竞争对手的广告。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f348812ea39b45cad3d64af127992eb9","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174549811","content_text":"9月18日,市场消息:谷歌母公司Alphabet赢得了对欧盟14.9亿欧元反垄断罚款的诉讼。2019年,由于被认定存在不公平竞争行为,美国互联网巨头谷歌公司再次收到欧盟反垄断监管机构开出的巨额罚单——14.9亿欧元。这次被罚的具体原因,是欧盟反垄断监管机构认定谷歌违反“在线搜索广告规定”,滥用其主导地位,屏蔽了竞争对手的广告。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350744414023696,"gmtCreate":1726636048053,"gmtModify":1726637069184,"author":{"id":"3450863943598152","authorId":"3450863943598152","name":"时菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/613d82a249d46972ed78c920966c5d11","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3450863943598152","idStr":"3450863943598152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 啊,舒服了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 啊,舒服了","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 啊,舒服了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350744414023696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348268373520504,"gmtCreate":1726032491036,"gmtModify":1726032492387,"author":{"id":"3450863943598152","authorId":"3450863943598152","name":"时菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/613d82a249d46972ed78c920966c5d11","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3450863943598152","idStr":"3450863943598152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 舒坦","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 舒坦","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 舒坦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348268373520504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319275973525696,"gmtCreate":1718978409512,"gmtModify":1718978410330,"author":{"id":"3450863943598152","authorId":"3450863943598152","name":"时菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/613d82a249d46972ed78c920966c5d11","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3450863943598152","idStr":"3450863943598152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ </a> 舒坦","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ </a> 舒坦","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 舒坦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319275973525696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":246534974328856,"gmtCreate":1701210449574,"gmtModify":1701210451037,"author":{"id":"3450863943598152","authorId":"3450863943598152","name":"时菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/613d82a249d46972ed78c920966c5d11","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3450863943598152","idStr":"3450863943598152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"巨星陨落,一路走好","listText":"巨星陨落,一路走好","text":"巨星陨落,一路走好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/246534974328856","repostId":"2387129119","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2387129119","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1701205092,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2387129119?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-11-29 04:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伯克希尔哈撒韦:芒格离世,享年99岁","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2387129119","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"伯克希尔哈撒韦:芒格离世。芒格享年99岁。\n...","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司公告称,当地时间11月28日上午,查理·芒格在加州一家医院安详地离世。巴菲特在声明中表示:“没有查理的灵感、智慧和参与,伯克希尔不可能达到今天的地位。”</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>周二,伯克希尔哈撒韦公司公告称,当地时间11月28日上午,查理·芒格在加州一家医院安详地离世。伯克希尔CEO、股神巴菲特在声明中表示:“没有查理的灵感、智慧和参与,伯克希尔不可能达到今天的地位。”</strong></p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">几分钟前,查理·芒格家族成员们告知伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司,芒格今天早上在加州的一家医院安详地去世。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特表示:“如果没有查理的灵感、智慧和参与,伯克希尔哈撒韦公司不可能发展到现在的地位。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">芒格家人将按照他的指示处理所有事务。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8dc369179f11e8121402ab33573fad1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"520\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">芒格生于1924年1月1日,享年99岁。很遗憾的是,他没有迎来100岁的生日。芒格有“行走的百科全书”、“幕后智囊”、“最后的秘密武器”等称呼。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在全球投资圈的搭档中,芒格和巴菲特可谓是神仙级的组合,绝对的黄金搭档,相识60多年。芒格比巴菲特大7岁。他们二人都在内布拉斯加州的奥马哈长大,这里也是伯克希尔公司的总部。芒格这些年来长期在洛杉矶居住。他经常在洛杉矶与居住在奥马哈的巴菲特通电话。即使他们无法联系,巴菲特称他也知道芒格会怎么想。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">政治立场上,虽然芒格支持共和党、巴菲特支持民主党,但二人经常在许多问题上有共同的意见,包括全民医疗保健和政府对金融体系监督的必要性等。巴菲特敦促亿万富翁们投身慈善事业,芒格同时也指出,Costco这样的私营公司为社会做出的贡献比大牌慈善基金会更多。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特20多年前曾公开表示,有一个合伙人直言“你没有思考清楚”,这真是太棒了。有太多的首席执行官身边都是一群阿谀奉承的人,不愿意挑战CEO的结论和偏见。”芒格则表示,“巴菲特受益于身边有一个懂行并(愿意)说话的人,我认为我在这方面非常有用。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管芒格在全球知名度方面从未能与巴菲特相媲美,但他也拥有自己的一批追随者。这些粉丝们会在巴菲特不在场的情况下聚集在一起聆听芒格讲话。此前,芒格在加利福尼亚州的帕萨迪纳主持韦斯科金融公司年会,阐述他的生活和投资哲学。2011年的年会是伯克希尔完全控股Wesco之前的最后一次会议。芒格告诉他的粉丝们,“你们需要一个新的崇拜英雄。”</p><p><strong>芒格早年</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">芒格的父亲是一位律师,是一位联邦法官的儿子。父亲凭借不错的收入,让芒格享受了良好的基础教育。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1942年,芒格高中毕业,同年进入密歇根大学安娜堡分校,学习数学。太平洋战争爆发后,他弃学从戎,在美国陆军中做了一名气象分析员。“二战”结束仅半个月,他以优异的成绩被哈佛法学院录取,并在3年后拿到学士学位,成为当年哈佛法学院300多名学生中成绩最好的之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">芒格也是律师出身。他大学毕业后,在家人的鼎力支持下,芒格与几个朋友在洛杉矶联合成立了一家律师事务所。三年后,他又成立一家小型建筑公司,并赚到了人生中的第一桶金——140万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1962年,芒格用赚来的钱与一个扑克牌友合伙成立了一家证券公司,惠勒·芒格公司。从公司成立到1972年的11年间,年均收益率达到28.3%。</p><p><strong>芒格与巴菲特结缘</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1959年,芒格父亲去世,他从洛杉矶赶回老家奥马哈。对芒格早有耳闻的巴菲特找到芒格,邀请他与自己共进晚餐。此时的巴菲特,正在家乡打理一家私人投资公司,并已在投资上有了一些成就和心得,两人一见如故,但还没有合伙做生意的打算。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国股市在上世纪70年代陷入狂热,这一时期,芒格和巴菲特在投资上的表现也大相径庭:巴菲特在自己的股票还在上涨的情况下忍痛解散了全部合伙公司,进而逃脱了那场全球股灾。而芒格的公司却没能幸免,1973-1974年,连续两年出现接近31%的亏损,将公司前11年一半多的盈利抹掉了。所幸的是芒格顶住了压力,坚持持股不动,终于在1975年迎来75%的盈利反弹。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">看着自己的财富坐了趟“过山车”之后,芒格意识到自己没有必要再单打独斗。于是,他在1975年清算了自己的合伙公司,将资金投入到了巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司中。</p><p><strong>芒格与巴菲特的投资哲学</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">芒格与巴菲特一同制定了长期投资公司的哲学。在他们的管理下,伯克希尔公司从一家濒临倒闭的纺织厂转变成如今的投资界巨头。从1965年到2021年,伯克希尔公司的平均年涨幅高达20.1%,几乎是标准普尔500指数涨幅的两倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔公司多年来持续、强劲的投资回报,让芒格和巴菲特成为全球投资者们崇拜的泰斗。每年5月投资圈的重大事件之一,就是一年一度的伯克希尔公司股东大会,也被视为投资者们的朝圣之旅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">芒格是伯克希尔公司的副主席,也是该公司最大的股东之一。据媒体数据,截至2022年3月2日,芒格持有的股票价值约为21亿美元;截至2023年初,他的总净资产约为25亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特此前称赞芒格拓宽了他的投资方式,超越了其导师本杰明·格雷厄姆坚持的以标的资产真实价值一小部分的价格,去购买股票的做法。在芒格的帮助下,巴菲特开始组建保险、铁路、制造业和消费品集团,而这些在随后创造了巨大的财富。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特说,“查理一直强调,让我们购买真正优秀的企业。”这意味着企业拥有强大的品牌和定价能力。最知名的案例之一是芒格推动的于1972年对See's Candies的收购。该交易被巴菲特视为“梦想企业的原型”。伯克希尔公司在15年后对可口可乐公司股票进行了10亿美元的投资,其灵感也来自于此。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">芒格因其直率和对企业过度行为的谴责而闻名。他直言不讳地批评企业的不当行为,例如指责一些首席执行官的薪酬方案“疯狂”和“不道德”。他还多次狂批加密货币,称比特币为“毒药”,将加密货币总体定义为“一半是欺诈,一半是妄想”。他也警告过说,许多银行业已经成为“拖沓的赌博”。</p><p><strong>芒格的中国投资</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">多年来,芒格在投资中国方面比巴菲特更加乐观。在芒格购买中国汽车制造商比亚迪公司股票数年后,伯克希尔哈撒韦公司成为了该公司的大股东。伯克希尔公司在2022年开始减持比亚迪。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在今年伯克希尔的年度股东大会上,据新华社,芒格连用三个“愚蠢”来形容一切加剧中美关系紧张的行为。他说,美国应该与中国好好相处,为了共同的利益与中国进行大量自由贸易。巴菲特同意芒格的看法。他表示,美中两国通过合作都可以成为更好的国家,充满竞争力,共同繁荣发展。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年10月30日,美国知名科技投资类播客《Acquired》邀请芒格参与节目录制,就十多个方面的问题展开交流。在谈及对中国经济的看法时,芒格预言,中国经济在未来20年的前景会比几乎任何其他大型经济体都要更好。芒格同样看好的还有中国的龙头企业,因此对于外界所谓的“中国风险论”,他直言“愿意承受”、“不介意”。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伯克希尔哈撒韦:芒格离世,享年99岁</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伯克希尔哈撒韦:芒格离世,享年99岁\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-29 04:58 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3703057><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司公告称,当地时间11月28日上午,查理·芒格在加州一家医院安详地离世。巴菲特在声明中表示:“没有查理的灵感、智慧和参与,伯克希尔不可能达到今天的地位。”周二,伯克希尔哈撒韦公司公告称,当地时间11月28日上午,查理·芒格在加州一家医院安详地离世。伯克希尔CEO、股神巴菲特在声明中表示:“没有查理的灵感、智慧和参与,伯克希尔不可能达到今天的地位。”几分钟前,查理·芒格家族成员们告知...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3703057\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f8193edf694f5d1a665683df3d4a29d","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3703057","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2387129119","content_text":"伯克希尔哈撒韦公司公告称,当地时间11月28日上午,查理·芒格在加州一家医院安详地离世。巴菲特在声明中表示:“没有查理的灵感、智慧和参与,伯克希尔不可能达到今天的地位。”周二,伯克希尔哈撒韦公司公告称,当地时间11月28日上午,查理·芒格在加州一家医院安详地离世。伯克希尔CEO、股神巴菲特在声明中表示:“没有查理的灵感、智慧和参与,伯克希尔不可能达到今天的地位。”几分钟前,查理·芒格家族成员们告知伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司,芒格今天早上在加州的一家医院安详地去世。伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特表示:“如果没有查理的灵感、智慧和参与,伯克希尔哈撒韦公司不可能发展到现在的地位。”芒格家人将按照他的指示处理所有事务。芒格生于1924年1月1日,享年99岁。很遗憾的是,他没有迎来100岁的生日。芒格有“行走的百科全书”、“幕后智囊”、“最后的秘密武器”等称呼。在全球投资圈的搭档中,芒格和巴菲特可谓是神仙级的组合,绝对的黄金搭档,相识60多年。芒格比巴菲特大7岁。他们二人都在内布拉斯加州的奥马哈长大,这里也是伯克希尔公司的总部。芒格这些年来长期在洛杉矶居住。他经常在洛杉矶与居住在奥马哈的巴菲特通电话。即使他们无法联系,巴菲特称他也知道芒格会怎么想。政治立场上,虽然芒格支持共和党、巴菲特支持民主党,但二人经常在许多问题上有共同的意见,包括全民医疗保健和政府对金融体系监督的必要性等。巴菲特敦促亿万富翁们投身慈善事业,芒格同时也指出,Costco这样的私营公司为社会做出的贡献比大牌慈善基金会更多。巴菲特20多年前曾公开表示,有一个合伙人直言“你没有思考清楚”,这真是太棒了。有太多的首席执行官身边都是一群阿谀奉承的人,不愿意挑战CEO的结论和偏见。”芒格则表示,“巴菲特受益于身边有一个懂行并(愿意)说话的人,我认为我在这方面非常有用。”尽管芒格在全球知名度方面从未能与巴菲特相媲美,但他也拥有自己的一批追随者。这些粉丝们会在巴菲特不在场的情况下聚集在一起聆听芒格讲话。此前,芒格在加利福尼亚州的帕萨迪纳主持韦斯科金融公司年会,阐述他的生活和投资哲学。2011年的年会是伯克希尔完全控股Wesco之前的最后一次会议。芒格告诉他的粉丝们,“你们需要一个新的崇拜英雄。”芒格早年芒格的父亲是一位律师,是一位联邦法官的儿子。父亲凭借不错的收入,让芒格享受了良好的基础教育。1942年,芒格高中毕业,同年进入密歇根大学安娜堡分校,学习数学。太平洋战争爆发后,他弃学从戎,在美国陆军中做了一名气象分析员。“二战”结束仅半个月,他以优异的成绩被哈佛法学院录取,并在3年后拿到学士学位,成为当年哈佛法学院300多名学生中成绩最好的之一。芒格也是律师出身。他大学毕业后,在家人的鼎力支持下,芒格与几个朋友在洛杉矶联合成立了一家律师事务所。三年后,他又成立一家小型建筑公司,并赚到了人生中的第一桶金——140万美元。1962年,芒格用赚来的钱与一个扑克牌友合伙成立了一家证券公司,惠勒·芒格公司。从公司成立到1972年的11年间,年均收益率达到28.3%。芒格与巴菲特结缘1959年,芒格父亲去世,他从洛杉矶赶回老家奥马哈。对芒格早有耳闻的巴菲特找到芒格,邀请他与自己共进晚餐。此时的巴菲特,正在家乡打理一家私人投资公司,并已在投资上有了一些成就和心得,两人一见如故,但还没有合伙做生意的打算。美国股市在上世纪70年代陷入狂热,这一时期,芒格和巴菲特在投资上的表现也大相径庭:巴菲特在自己的股票还在上涨的情况下忍痛解散了全部合伙公司,进而逃脱了那场全球股灾。而芒格的公司却没能幸免,1973-1974年,连续两年出现接近31%的亏损,将公司前11年一半多的盈利抹掉了。所幸的是芒格顶住了压力,坚持持股不动,终于在1975年迎来75%的盈利反弹。看着自己的财富坐了趟“过山车”之后,芒格意识到自己没有必要再单打独斗。于是,他在1975年清算了自己的合伙公司,将资金投入到了巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司中。芒格与巴菲特的投资哲学芒格与巴菲特一同制定了长期投资公司的哲学。在他们的管理下,伯克希尔公司从一家濒临倒闭的纺织厂转变成如今的投资界巨头。从1965年到2021年,伯克希尔公司的平均年涨幅高达20.1%,几乎是标准普尔500指数涨幅的两倍。伯克希尔公司多年来持续、强劲的投资回报,让芒格和巴菲特成为全球投资者们崇拜的泰斗。每年5月投资圈的重大事件之一,就是一年一度的伯克希尔公司股东大会,也被视为投资者们的朝圣之旅。芒格是伯克希尔公司的副主席,也是该公司最大的股东之一。据媒体数据,截至2022年3月2日,芒格持有的股票价值约为21亿美元;截至2023年初,他的总净资产约为25亿美元。巴菲特此前称赞芒格拓宽了他的投资方式,超越了其导师本杰明·格雷厄姆坚持的以标的资产真实价值一小部分的价格,去购买股票的做法。在芒格的帮助下,巴菲特开始组建保险、铁路、制造业和消费品集团,而这些在随后创造了巨大的财富。巴菲特说,“查理一直强调,让我们购买真正优秀的企业。”这意味着企业拥有强大的品牌和定价能力。最知名的案例之一是芒格推动的于1972年对See's Candies的收购。该交易被巴菲特视为“梦想企业的原型”。伯克希尔公司在15年后对可口可乐公司股票进行了10亿美元的投资,其灵感也来自于此。芒格因其直率和对企业过度行为的谴责而闻名。他直言不讳地批评企业的不当行为,例如指责一些首席执行官的薪酬方案“疯狂”和“不道德”。他还多次狂批加密货币,称比特币为“毒药”,将加密货币总体定义为“一半是欺诈,一半是妄想”。他也警告过说,许多银行业已经成为“拖沓的赌博”。芒格的中国投资多年来,芒格在投资中国方面比巴菲特更加乐观。在芒格购买中国汽车制造商比亚迪公司股票数年后,伯克希尔哈撒韦公司成为了该公司的大股东。伯克希尔公司在2022年开始减持比亚迪。在今年伯克希尔的年度股东大会上,据新华社,芒格连用三个“愚蠢”来形容一切加剧中美关系紧张的行为。他说,美国应该与中国好好相处,为了共同的利益与中国进行大量自由贸易。巴菲特同意芒格的看法。他表示,美中两国通过合作都可以成为更好的国家,充满竞争力,共同繁荣发展。今年10月30日,美国知名科技投资类播客《Acquired》邀请芒格参与节目录制,就十多个方面的问题展开交流。在谈及对中国经济的看法时,芒格预言,中国经济在未来20年的前景会比几乎任何其他大型经济体都要更好。芒格同样看好的还有中国的龙头企业,因此对于外界所谓的“中国风险论”,他直言“愿意承受”、“不介意”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1074,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626392864,"gmtCreate":1673787012059,"gmtModify":1673791964128,"author":{"id":"3450863943598152","authorId":"3450863943598152","name":"时菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/613d82a249d46972ed78c920966c5d11","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3450863943598152","idStr":"3450863943598152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"地方债都快爆炸了傻子才会做多。。","listText":"地方债都快爆炸了傻子才会做多。。","text":"地方债都快爆炸了傻子才会做多。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626392864","repostId":"1122959907","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633642517,"gmtCreate":1644040465730,"gmtModify":1644040465730,"author":{"id":"3450863943598152","authorId":"3450863943598152","name":"时菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/613d82a249d46972ed78c920966c5d11","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3450863943598152","idStr":"3450863943598152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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经济形势不转变,一切暴涨都是海市蜃楼,随时崩塌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357815099928848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4165787134050210","authorId":"4165787134050210","name":"业余的全职专业投资人","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4165787134050210","authorIdStr":"4165787134050210"},"content":"去年前年疫情解除封锁时也是吹上天了,又没有变天,怎么可能打破历史规律!无数次历史证明,以前每次都吹上天不就是为了找接盘侠嘛!最后呢?一样的啪啪啪啪啪啪打脸,长期阴跌跌到2600点,那次打的脸还不响吗?打算此次把之前卖不出的房子卖了,找个接盘侠,以免以后卖都卖不出!找不到接盘侠了!","text":"去年前年疫情解除封锁时也是吹上天了,又没有变天,怎么可能打破历史规律!无数次历史证明,以前每次都吹上天不就是为了找接盘侠嘛!最后呢?一样的啪啪啪啪啪啪打脸,长期阴跌跌到2600点,那次打的脸还不响吗?打算此次把之前卖不出的房子卖了,找个接盘侠,以免以后卖都卖不出!找不到接盘侠了!","html":"去年前年疫情解除封锁时也是吹上天了,又没有变天,怎么可能打破历史规律!无数次历史证明,以前每次都吹上天不就是为了找接盘侠嘛!最后呢?一样的啪啪啪啪啪啪打脸,长期阴跌跌到2600点,那次打的脸还不响吗?打算此次把之前卖不出的房子卖了,找个接盘侠,以免以后卖都卖不出!找不到接盘侠了!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633642517,"gmtCreate":1644040465730,"gmtModify":1644040465730,"author":{"id":"3450863943598152","authorId":"3450863943598152","name":"时菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/613d82a249d46972ed78c920966c5d11","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450863943598152","authorIdStr":"3450863943598152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$</a>我最得意的操作2月份买入.10月份卖出,成本134期间跌到过46,最后盈利离场","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$</a>我最得意的操作2月份买入.10月份卖出,成本134期间跌到过46,最后盈利离场","text":"$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$我最得意的操作2月份买入.10月份卖出,成本134期间跌到过46,最后盈利离场","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae5ed19c0d0ac8c6a890a9fbddc0c1d1","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633642517","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626392864,"gmtCreate":1673787012059,"gmtModify":1673791964128,"author":{"id":"3450863943598152","authorId":"3450863943598152","name":"时菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/613d82a249d46972ed78c920966c5d11","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450863943598152","authorIdStr":"3450863943598152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"地方债都快爆炸了傻子才会做多。。","listText":"地方债都快爆炸了傻子才会做多。。","text":"地方债都快爆炸了傻子才会做多。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626392864","repostId":"1122959907","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122959907","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673774307,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122959907?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-15 17:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"外资做多中国,到什么程度了?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122959907","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"2022年第四季度以来外资180度转弯、又开始看多中国资产了,而外资流入也成为近期市场关注的“香饽饽”。如何跟踪和评估外资做多中国市场的情况?我们通过外资交易中国的经典四大资产,构建“做多中国”指数,","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2022年第四季度以来外资180度转弯、又开始看多中国资产了,而外资流入也成为近期市场关注的“香饽饽”。如何跟踪和评估外资做多中国市场的情况?我们通过外资交易中国的经典四大资产,构建“做多中国”指数,<b>我们发现当前外资做多中国的交易逐步进入中性区间,仍有继续上涨的空间。</b></p><p>外资做多中国的资产,主要有四个主要品种。从大类资产角度,一般主要有<b>港股、人民币汇率,澳元和铜</b>,2023年以来都取得了可观的涨幅(图1):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a17b1b1f53f8d4a0583b6dff8d30717a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>港股:<b>交易便利,汇率风险小</b>;2010年后内资企业占港股市值超过50%、2014年11月沪港通开通之后,港股和内地经济、市场的联系越来越紧密,成为外资表达对中国预期的看法的重要工具(图2)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5ddb1c99128375ac793aed5c28ab10\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>人民币:<b>主权货币天然是一国经济实力和经济周期的反映。</b>不过值得注意的是在不同阶段,外资使用的工具不同:2015年之前由于人民币只是有管理的浮动且对跨境资本流动有严格限制,外资主要使用NDF等来表达观点(NDF,无本金交割远期,可以使用美元来进行现金结算);2015年之后随着定价市场化和跨境资本流动的逐步放开,我们现在常见的即期汇率能够更好地体现外资对于中国的多空观点。</p><p>铜:<b>中国是全球铜加工和消费最大的经济体,而“铜博士”是经济复苏的重要“温度计”。</b>根据普氏的统计,2021年中国在冶炼、精炼和消费环节分别占全球的36%以上、35%和54%,自2002年以来,铜价的表现主要与中国的经济和城市化相关。</p><p>澳元:<b>中国是澳大利亚最大的出口国</b>(2021年对中国出口的份额超过37%,其中超过60%是金属砂矿),因此澳元的波动与中国工业需求密切相联。因此在2014年前外资缺乏投资中国资产有效渠道时,澳元常常被用来押注中国经济。</p><p>我们根据这四个资产的价格,构建“做多中国”指数。我们主要选取恒生指数、美元兑人民币汇率、澳元兑美元汇率和伦铜四种资产的价格,分别标准化取均值,得到“做多中国”指数,我们发现三个有趣的结论:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d71b323b9419454449bc82fc97aaa265\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"905\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>当前外资做多中国的交易接近于回到历史平均水平,未出现过热。如图3所示,到2023年1月13日该指数仍处于微幅负值的水平,从分项来看,除了铜,人民币汇率交易刚回到0附近,港股和澳元则继续处于明显的负值水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94354d44e033034a0bacace2501f3932\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>“做多中国”指数与中国经济周期密切相关。如图4和5所示,该指数月度均值的走势,和OECD领先指数以及制造业PMI指示的经济波动基本一直,不过似乎存在<b>“低点出现得更早,高点出现得更晚”</b>的特点。</p><p>“做多中国”交易的特点:来得早,走得晚?第二个特点似乎意味着外资做多中国喜欢抢跑,且离场比较晚。从历史经验看,<b>抢跑的现象确实存在</b>,比较典型的是2022年11月和2018年11月,外资资金都出现了反转大幅流入。<b>“走得晚”的现象可能值得商榷,资产的影响因素从来都不是单一的,由于中国与其他主要经济体周期的错位,中国经济见顶不意味着全球经济会迅速放缓</b>,2017年下半年至2018年初港股的持续上涨背后还有全球经济稳健、美元持续下跌的逻辑在,而2021年的做多周期中铜表现强劲同样有全球需求疫后复苏的影子,叠加供给冲击的客观存在。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e85970c3763383d31628ec490679fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41f08fd4079e2e92731e7532cba8c4a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>后续市场可能更加关注的是“做多中国”的行情会如何发展?从整体看我们在上面已经说了,外资“做多中国”的交易仍有较大空间;分资产来看,人民币汇率进入中性区间,铜价上涨并未过热但是持续性有赖于中国宽信用的进程,澳元虽然受益于中国经济复苏预期和中澳关系的改善,但是其国内地产市场的不稳定是最大的不确定性因素。目前看港股港股的逻辑最顺,受益于中国经济企稳和美元见顶。</p><p><b>人民币:触及6.70之后进入中性区间</b>。从历史上看,“做多中国交易”回归正常(回归0轴)后,人民币一般不是做多交易的主力,除非美元出现大幅贬值,比如2020年下半年至2021年上半年。因此,<b>人民币继续上涨的一倍标准差事件可能是美联储提前停止加息</b>(比如在3月议息会议就暗示),两倍标准差事件是美联储提前开始降息(比如下半年就开启降息)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc68a548fed3bd3a6818bfaa47fc2432\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>铜:价格上涨快但交易并不拥挤,关注宽信用的进程。</b>无论从过去5年还是疫情之后的时间区间来看,铜价站上9000之后,价格水平有点偏高(尤其相较其他三个资产),不过从交易和基本面角度,铜继续上涨仍有空间:从交易上看,并未出现过热,CFTC非商业(投机)净持仓刚刚转正;从基本面上,铜价上涨的持续性有赖后续中国宽信用进程的推进,2023年初以来,财政在赤字和支出方面“加力”的预期,以及央行对于信贷适度超前投放的诉求使得宽信用预期升温,需求密切关注今年1至2月信贷和社融数据的情况。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76f4c4890247ffbb8c3db4507f781c2b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>澳元:地产可能是最大的不确定性。</b>澳元自去年11月以来的上涨受益于中国经济复苏预期以及中澳关系的改善,但是在货币政策持续紧缩下澳大利亚地产受到明显冲击,2022年第三季度住宅价格已经开始自高点明显回落,其中8月房屋价值下跌了1.6%,是1983年以来全澳范围内的最大单月跌幅(这也是2023年许多发达国家面临的问题)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/660a323570ec8db67f61dd5bd5aeae20\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>港股:受益于中国复苏和美元见顶。</b>港股的逻辑可能是四者中最顺的,一方面直接受益于中国经济的复苏和各项政策的转向,比如对平台经济的监管,另一方面,从全球范围来看,港股也是美元见顶交易的受益者,我们之前统计过,在美元见顶后的一年内,新兴市场经济体权益资产的上涨弹性较大(图14)。</p><p>风险提示:海外货币政策收紧下外需回落,海外经济提前进入显著衰退,严重拖累我国出口。毒株出现变异,疫情蔓延形势超预期恶化。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外资做多中国,到什么程度了?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-15 17:18 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/q8NVl3p5MfCU7Ve2u_SCuA><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2022年第四季度以来外资180度转弯、又开始看多中国资产了,而外资流入也成为近期市场关注的“香饽饽”。如何跟踪和评估外资做多中国市场的情况?我们通过外资交易中国的经典四大资产,构建“做多中国”指数,我们发现当前外资做多中国的交易逐步进入中性区间,仍有继续上涨的空间。外资做多中国的资产,主要有四个主要品种。从大类资产角度,一般主要有港股、人民币汇率,澳元和铜,2023年以来都取得了可观的涨幅(图1...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/q8NVl3p5MfCU7Ve2u_SCuA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/q8NVl3p5MfCU7Ve2u_SCuA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122959907","content_text":"2022年第四季度以来外资180度转弯、又开始看多中国资产了,而外资流入也成为近期市场关注的“香饽饽”。如何跟踪和评估外资做多中国市场的情况?我们通过外资交易中国的经典四大资产,构建“做多中国”指数,我们发现当前外资做多中国的交易逐步进入中性区间,仍有继续上涨的空间。外资做多中国的资产,主要有四个主要品种。从大类资产角度,一般主要有港股、人民币汇率,澳元和铜,2023年以来都取得了可观的涨幅(图1):港股:交易便利,汇率风险小;2010年后内资企业占港股市值超过50%、2014年11月沪港通开通之后,港股和内地经济、市场的联系越来越紧密,成为外资表达对中国预期的看法的重要工具(图2)。人民币:主权货币天然是一国经济实力和经济周期的反映。不过值得注意的是在不同阶段,外资使用的工具不同:2015年之前由于人民币只是有管理的浮动且对跨境资本流动有严格限制,外资主要使用NDF等来表达观点(NDF,无本金交割远期,可以使用美元来进行现金结算);2015年之后随着定价市场化和跨境资本流动的逐步放开,我们现在常见的即期汇率能够更好地体现外资对于中国的多空观点。铜:中国是全球铜加工和消费最大的经济体,而“铜博士”是经济复苏的重要“温度计”。根据普氏的统计,2021年中国在冶炼、精炼和消费环节分别占全球的36%以上、35%和54%,自2002年以来,铜价的表现主要与中国的经济和城市化相关。澳元:中国是澳大利亚最大的出口国(2021年对中国出口的份额超过37%,其中超过60%是金属砂矿),因此澳元的波动与中国工业需求密切相联。因此在2014年前外资缺乏投资中国资产有效渠道时,澳元常常被用来押注中国经济。我们根据这四个资产的价格,构建“做多中国”指数。我们主要选取恒生指数、美元兑人民币汇率、澳元兑美元汇率和伦铜四种资产的价格,分别标准化取均值,得到“做多中国”指数,我们发现三个有趣的结论:当前外资做多中国的交易接近于回到历史平均水平,未出现过热。如图3所示,到2023年1月13日该指数仍处于微幅负值的水平,从分项来看,除了铜,人民币汇率交易刚回到0附近,港股和澳元则继续处于明显的负值水平。“做多中国”指数与中国经济周期密切相关。如图4和5所示,该指数月度均值的走势,和OECD领先指数以及制造业PMI指示的经济波动基本一直,不过似乎存在“低点出现得更早,高点出现得更晚”的特点。“做多中国”交易的特点:来得早,走得晚?第二个特点似乎意味着外资做多中国喜欢抢跑,且离场比较晚。从历史经验看,抢跑的现象确实存在,比较典型的是2022年11月和2018年11月,外资资金都出现了反转大幅流入。“走得晚”的现象可能值得商榷,资产的影响因素从来都不是单一的,由于中国与其他主要经济体周期的错位,中国经济见顶不意味着全球经济会迅速放缓,2017年下半年至2018年初港股的持续上涨背后还有全球经济稳健、美元持续下跌的逻辑在,而2021年的做多周期中铜表现强劲同样有全球需求疫后复苏的影子,叠加供给冲击的客观存在。后续市场可能更加关注的是“做多中国”的行情会如何发展?从整体看我们在上面已经说了,外资“做多中国”的交易仍有较大空间;分资产来看,人民币汇率进入中性区间,铜价上涨并未过热但是持续性有赖于中国宽信用的进程,澳元虽然受益于中国经济复苏预期和中澳关系的改善,但是其国内地产市场的不稳定是最大的不确定性因素。目前看港股港股的逻辑最顺,受益于中国经济企稳和美元见顶。人民币:触及6.70之后进入中性区间。从历史上看,“做多中国交易”回归正常(回归0轴)后,人民币一般不是做多交易的主力,除非美元出现大幅贬值,比如2020年下半年至2021年上半年。因此,人民币继续上涨的一倍标准差事件可能是美联储提前停止加息(比如在3月议息会议就暗示),两倍标准差事件是美联储提前开始降息(比如下半年就开启降息)。铜:价格上涨快但交易并不拥挤,关注宽信用的进程。无论从过去5年还是疫情之后的时间区间来看,铜价站上9000之后,价格水平有点偏高(尤其相较其他三个资产),不过从交易和基本面角度,铜继续上涨仍有空间:从交易上看,并未出现过热,CFTC非商业(投机)净持仓刚刚转正;从基本面上,铜价上涨的持续性有赖后续中国宽信用进程的推进,2023年初以来,财政在赤字和支出方面“加力”的预期,以及央行对于信贷适度超前投放的诉求使得宽信用预期升温,需求密切关注今年1至2月信贷和社融数据的情况。澳元:地产可能是最大的不确定性。澳元自去年11月以来的上涨受益于中国经济复苏预期以及中澳关系的改善,但是在货币政策持续紧缩下澳大利亚地产受到明显冲击,2022年第三季度住宅价格已经开始自高点明显回落,其中8月房屋价值下跌了1.6%,是1983年以来全澳范围内的最大单月跌幅(这也是2023年许多发达国家面临的问题)。港股:受益于中国复苏和美元见顶。港股的逻辑可能是四者中最顺的,一方面直接受益于中国经济的复苏和各项政策的转向,比如对平台经济的监管,另一方面,从全球范围来看,港股也是美元见顶交易的受益者,我们之前统计过,在美元见顶后的一年内,新兴市场经济体权益资产的上涨弹性较大(图14)。风险提示:海外货币政策收紧下外需回落,海外经济提前进入显著衰退,严重拖累我国出口。毒株出现变异,疫情蔓延形势超预期恶化。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350784705659176,"gmtCreate":1726645852647,"gmtModify":1726646093986,"author":{"id":"3450863943598152","authorId":"3450863943598152","name":"时菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/613d82a249d46972ed78c920966c5d11","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450863943598152","authorIdStr":"3450863943598152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"谷歌牛逼,法制社会牛逼","listText":"谷歌牛逼,法制社会牛逼","text":"谷歌牛逼,法制社会牛逼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350784705659176","repostId":"1174549811","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1174549811","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1726645420,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174549811?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-09-18 15:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场消息:Alphabet赢得欧盟14.9亿欧元反垄断罚款诉讼","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174549811","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月18日,市场消息:$谷歌(GOOG)$母公司Alphabet赢得了对欧盟14.9亿欧元反垄断罚款的诉讼。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月18日,市场消息:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet赢得了对欧盟14.9亿欧元反垄断罚款的诉讼。</p><p>2019年,由于被认定存在不公平竞争行为,美国互联网巨头谷歌公司再次收到欧盟反垄断监管机构开出的巨额罚单——14.9亿欧元。这次被罚的具体原因,是欧盟反垄断监管机构认定谷歌违反“在线搜索广告规定”,滥用其主导地位,屏蔽了竞争对手的广告。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场消息:Alphabet赢得欧盟14.9亿欧元反垄断罚款诉讼</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场消息:Alphabet赢得欧盟14.9亿欧元反垄断罚款诉讼\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-18 15:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>9月18日,市场消息:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet赢得了对欧盟14.9亿欧元反垄断罚款的诉讼。</p><p>2019年,由于被认定存在不公平竞争行为,美国互联网巨头谷歌公司再次收到欧盟反垄断监管机构开出的巨额罚单——14.9亿欧元。这次被罚的具体原因,是欧盟反垄断监管机构认定谷歌违反“在线搜索广告规定”,滥用其主导地位,屏蔽了竞争对手的广告。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f348812ea39b45cad3d64af127992eb9","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174549811","content_text":"9月18日,市场消息:谷歌母公司Alphabet赢得了对欧盟14.9亿欧元反垄断罚款的诉讼。2019年,由于被认定存在不公平竞争行为,美国互联网巨头谷歌公司再次收到欧盟反垄断监管机构开出的巨额罚单——14.9亿欧元。这次被罚的具体原因,是欧盟反垄断监管机构认定谷歌违反“在线搜索广告规定”,滥用其主导地位,屏蔽了竞争对手的广告。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":246534974328856,"gmtCreate":1701210449574,"gmtModify":1701210451037,"author":{"id":"3450863943598152","authorId":"3450863943598152","name":"时菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/613d82a249d46972ed78c920966c5d11","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450863943598152","authorIdStr":"3450863943598152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"巨星陨落,一路走好","listText":"巨星陨落,一路走好","text":"巨星陨落,一路走好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/246534974328856","repostId":"2387129119","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1074,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358085073404120,"gmtCreate":1728441957714,"gmtModify":1728441959104,"author":{"id":"3450863943598152","authorId":"3450863943598152","name":"时菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/613d82a249d46972ed78c920966c5d11","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450863943598152","authorIdStr":"3450863943598152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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16:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>10月22日,英特尔盘前跌近10%,财报显示:英特尔三季度营收192亿美元,同比增长4.9%,低于市场预期;三季度调整后EPS为1.71美元,略高于分析师预期 1.11 美元。</p>\n<p>公司高管表示,由于公司在制造技术上的支出增加,未来几年的盈利能力将受到影响。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/096444c53edc2f544d17f67b3df4f3fc\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"628\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74be4c2a08964ef2daf32217f693b44","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195025373","content_text":"10月22日,英特尔盘前跌近10%,财报显示:英特尔三季度营收192亿美元,同比增长4.9%,低于市场预期;三季度调整后EPS为1.71美元,略高于分析师预期 1.11 美元。\n公司高管表示,由于公司在制造技术上的支出增加,未来几年的盈利能力将受到影响。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}