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ungg
2019-07-09
$NIO Inc.(NIO)$
全清了,挣辆车钱。这钱不是很好赚,真持有过才知道折磨。祝大家好运。
ungg
2019-05-24
$Baidu(BIDU)$ 再赢一次。
ungg
2018-04-03
amd必胜交易法
$AMD(AMD)$ 1 开盘五分钟以内以任何市价抛光持仓 2 挂一个你认为不可能买到的价格 3 去睡觉 第二天重复以上步骤 用不了几天你就是股神了。
amd必胜交易法
ungg
2019-08-09
$DouYu(DOYU)$
清仓清仓,只有挣点小钱的命
ungg
2018-03-08
终于等到你
$AMD(AMD)$ 全仓卖了,睡个安心觉
终于等到你
ungg
2017-08-09
听说有人喜欢赌财报?
$微博(WB)$ 教你做人,这种庄股从来是利好利空不分的。
听说有人喜欢赌财报?
ungg
2017-07-28
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 好像真的是见证崩盘了
ungg
2017-07-10
盘点一下利空
$微博(WB)$ 1市盈率过高2会计减持3新浪配股4禁娱乐号5禁视频(说禁简单化了,理解意思就行),再加上上面一天跳涨20%的缺口,还是偏空吧。
盘点一下利空
ungg
2018-03-13
$AMD(AMD)$ 又跌下来了,这是美国电梯版的红海行动吧
ungg
2019-08-12
这是我在老虎看到最有意思的一篇,事实,以及偏向不可知论的分析。
美股2000年崩盘启示录
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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事实,以及偏向不可知论的分析。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/992422219","repostId":"1165923562","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1165923562","pubTimestamp":1565572645,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165923562?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2019-08-12 09:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股2000年崩盘启示录","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165923562","media":" 全球宏观投机","summary":"2019年美股更像哪一年?","content":"<p><span>2019年美股更像哪一年?</span></p>\n<p><span>首先,并不像1929年,也不像2008年。虽然美国高息公司债一直是市场老手琢磨的重点,但是现在的确还没有证据表明2019年高息债市场已经类似2006年的次贷市场。1929年是疯狂的杠杆做多股票(很类似2015年的中国股市),现在美股的大环境已经跟1929年完全无法比拟,尤其是央行和政府在应对市场危机方面。</span></p>\n<p><span>2019年的美股会是一个全新的格局,跟历史上每一次大型熊市的起点可能都不相同。因为这是一个全新的低利率时代、政府对股市的关注前所未有、积累了丰富的应对市场内部崩盘的经验(这是1987年的教训),日本央行开创的QQE包括了直接购买股票ETF的先例。所以,我们要在这种新的历史条件下探讨市场未来崩盘的路径。</span></p>\n<p><span>不过正如利佛摩尔所说,人性如山岳一般古老,懒惰、恐惧、贪婪和幻想是人性的基本部分,这决定了任何市场都有繁荣-萧条周期,而金融监管总是走在市场崩盘后面。这决定了未来一段时间,美股会有大型波动(超过30%)。</span></p>\n<p><span>我这次复盘2000年技术泡沫,原因如下:</span></p>\n<p><span>这是一次大型股票衰退,从波峰到波谷,纳斯达克综合指数一共有72%跌幅。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>这次崩盘的直接触发因素是公司在信息技术方面的投资超过需求,市场过度投资了技术类股票的前景。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>监管上的缺陷主要包括大量公司财务造假,这是繁荣时期和监管放松阶段的必然产物。</span></p>\n<p><span>这些特征与我设想的美股下一次崩盘有类似之处。这也是美股上个世纪以来几次主要大型衰退中我唯一还没有复盘的一个,这次算是补充家庭作业。</span></p>\n<p>2<span>周期、美股、美元和加息</span></p>\n<p><span>中文世界里面充斥了各种关于美股的不真实信息,譬如加息刺破泡沫,加息提振美元之类。真实的情况是,1980年代以来的几次美股下跌(超过20%)与加息周期的关系并不明朗,甚至几乎都是加息周期结束后才达到股票顶点。而美元与美联储加息周期更是毫无关系。</span></p>\n<p><span>图 1980年代以来的美股、美元与加息</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91fbd5934bb90128eca97406e6281810\"></p>\n<p><span>本轮美联储从7月30日开始进入降息周期,这倒是提醒我们,美股大跌的时间可能临近了,如果我们相信历史数据的话。上图红框是美国加息周期,绿线是标普,紫红线是美元指数。</span></p>\n<p><span>其中,与2000年美股头部加息相关的起始日期是1999年6月15日到2000年5月12日。事后我们知道,美股头部出现在2000年3月(以纳指算)。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>决定货币政策、资产价格和投资者情绪最深层的力量是经济周期。</b></span><span>那么,2000年股市头部对应的经济周期如何呢?</span></p>\n<p><span>图 互联网泡沫时代的经济周期</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507bc6f3c8b1ef5f86af8fb6e31b4f53\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:ECRI</span></p>\n<p><span>在我之前公开发表的文章中,我提示了经济周期分析的技巧。美国经济的高点出现在1999年7月,但此时股票开始最后的大涨,经济在2000年5月出现较为明显的走弱,而此时股票头部已现。但是在当时,除非是极高明的交易者,是不敢确认说股票高点已经出现。</span></p>\n<p><span>简单看,这一轮经济周期与股指的关系依然非常经典。经济周期先行指数领先或者同步于股票头部。这一次,经济周期顶点领先股票顶点9个月,在经济周期先行指数接近同比为负时股票确认头部。</span></p>\n<p><span>图 2000年美股头部的技术特征</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d88b93e2d425f25c461a15043b32558b\"></p>\n<p><span>我们看到,标普依然是一个标准的圆形顶,而纳指则表现出更大的波动性。同样,我们可以从跌幅看,纳指的跌幅远大于标普,这也给我们启发:下一次做空美股的主攻方向。一般美股头部的重要经验是,领涨板块出现回落。我们一会儿分析2019年的图形。</span></p>\n<p>3<span>股市头部总是悄无声息</span></p>\n<p><span>接下来,我们回到历史现场,逐日过一遍当时的市场新闻。与我公开发表的1929年和1987年复盘一样,依然是采用当时的实时新闻加上我自己的思考。新闻来源全部是彭博。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>2000年3月10日。股票指数新高。因为交易过于活跃,以至于交易堵塞了一分多钟,指数停止更新了40分钟,交易量持续新高。前一天纳指超越5000,这是一个历史性的时刻,要注意整数关口的心理含义。此时,华尔街讨论的是,何时如何超越6000。我直接引用当时的一个报导。另外,3月10日是周五。这一天,纳指最高点是5133。一切似乎都非常完美。市场虽然不时有一些下挫,但是很快就会回到上涨趋势。</span></p>\n<p><span>Investors Question What Group Will Lead Nasdaq Higher, WSJ Says</span></p>\n<p><span>New York, March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Nasdaq Composite's surge to 5000 has resembled a race with one group of technology stocks passing the baton to another, and analysts and investors are questioning what group will lead it to 6000, the Wall Street Journal reported in its ``Heard on the Street'' column. Microsoft Corp. and Dell Computer Corp. helped push the Nasdaq to 4000, and then upstarts such as PMC-Sierra Inc. and Juniper Networks Inc. helped it reach 5000. Tom Marsico, head of Marsico Capital Management, expects Entrust Technologies Inc. and Flextronics International Ltd. to help propel the Nasdaq to a new high, while Ruth Porat of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter said she expects the Internet stocks will continue to lead, the paper said.</span></p>\n<p><span>The Nasdaq Composite Index closed above 5000 for the first time in its 29-year history yesterday.</span></p>\n<p><span>一个愉快的周末,投资者继续享受计算机、互联网和生物科技等新经济股票带来的巨大收益。虽然不少市场老手担忧股价上升过快(表现的结果是估值过高),但是并没有明显的头部特征,即便有,也有可能是市场自发的一个技术调整。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>2000年3月13日周一。日本经济数据显示将连续第二个季度陷入收缩。周日巴菲特表示美国股市投资者乐观过度,股市将会有修正,当天美国股指期货在亚盘和欧盘时间下跌,领跌的是戴尔和亚马逊,市场担心日本是否还有足够的IT需求。美股开盘大跌,纳指最低下跌超过4%,收盘下跌1.5%。市场讨论较多的是信息技术类股票的盈利是否能支持股票目前的涨幅。虽然是糟糕的一天,但是没有人能看到美股高点已过。当天股指剧烈波动,高点达到5027,收盘图形是高上影线的小实体,这说明多头一度试图把握优势,但是收盘时不得不退回到4907,但相比开盘,股指收涨。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月14日周二。知名股票分析师Dorfman分析了当时的市场深度,标普、道指和纳指出现了历史上少见的显著分离,除了纳指继续大涨外,标普和道指都下跌。这种市场背离是一个非常典型的股票头部标志,意味着股指的新高是由少数股票贡献的,多数股票的买盘已经力度不足。仔细分析下表美国最大市值20家公司的涨跌,Dorfman发现9只上涨11只下降。20只股票集中在计算机、通信和制药行业。从涨跌比例上看不出特别的分离,但是如果看涨跌幅和市盈率,那我们很容易就发现市场的深度很薄,这意味着一旦市场转向,下跌的力度很大。</span></p>\n<p><span>当日早盘大涨,但收盘大跌4.1%。热门股甲骨文一季度盈利超过市场预期,英特尔宣布收购欧洲一家技术公司,分析师对技术股普遍乐观,将一季度盈利增长上调到18.3%,之前是18%。当天虽然股票大跌,但刚上市的三只互联网股票中有两只翻倍。</span></p>\n<p><span>周二的图形非常难看。预示着调整没有结束。但公司盈利的数据会麻痹很多人。既然甲骨文和英特尔都保持了这么好的盈利数据,市场的高价也许是合理的。这个时候,你是相信公司盈利数据(宏观因子之一)还是图形呢(另外一个宏观因子)?所以,不要嘲笑在这天逢低买入美股的人。</span></p>\n<p><span>PIMCO公司的Hodge继续警告美股风险,但是他的用词是修正,虽然他也说了,泡沫不会慢慢破灭的。在市场狂热气氛中,很多老手都知道状况不可持续,但是谁也不敢说这就是泡沫的头部。从3月10日到24日的图形见下。</span></p>\n<p><span>图 头部总是在不经意间到来</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e943b7e95946123526a3dee4c4d4d31e\"></p>\n<p><span>我也比较了美国如今市值最大20家公司过去三个月的相对表现,发现目前美股的市场深度合理,市值最大20家公司12家上涨,8家下跌,从行业分布、涨跌幅、市盈率看,当前美股相对健康。</span></p>\n<p><span>表 2000年美股深度</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7268c157137b02879b1b30fe252cd2f\"></p>\n<p><span>表 美股市场深度2019</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c31505467dc63be698387abcf595bf\"></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月15日周三。PPI数据显示美国没有通胀压力,给股票提供了宏观支撑。今天也是开盘上涨,收盘下跌。纳指距离高点10%,符合一般所讲的“技术调整”范畴。此时很多投资者虽然认为技术股需要继续调整,但其他股票被低估,股票总体依然有机会。引用当时一个基金经理的说法:</span></p>\n<p><span>Nasdaq Falls, Down 10% From Record; Dow Rallies for Second Day</span></p>\n<p><span>``The Nasdaq stocks are still in a period of uncertainty with many needing to correct,'' said Henry Cavanna, a money manager with J.P. Morgan & Co. which oversees $320 million.</span></p>\n<p><span>Many investors, including Cavanna, are instead buying financial, drug and industrial companies, ``which are showing signs of life,'' he said.</span><br></p>\n<p><span>市场在关注雅虎收购eBay的传闻。可见,市场在头部区域依然不乏各种美好的想象。换了我们,会在当时买入eBay吗?这是每一个交易员都应该问自己的问题。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月16日周四。在微软和高通带领下,纳指强势反弹,一根长长的下影线。多头会认为,调整可能结束了。耐克利润增长17%,略超预期,股价大涨。看起来股票可能又要回到上涨趋势。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月17日周五,纳指上涨1.7%。很多大型基金经理继续看涨技术股,认为过去一周的调整提供了很好的买点。</span></p>\n<p><span>Nasdaq Gains a 2nd Day; Dow Falls, Finishes Best Week Since '84</span></p>\n<p><span>Veritas Software Corp. and Qualcomm Inc. were among the big gainers in the Nasdaq, which rose 80.74, or 1.7 percent, to 4798.13 on expectations money will continue flowing into mutual funds that buy computer-related and telecommunications stocks.</span></p>\n<p><span>``A lot of these stocks, such as JDS Uniphase, are down for the week and are buying opportunities,'' said Gil Knight, a portfolio manager with Allied Investment Advisors Inc. in Baltimore, which oversees $10 billion. ``We are about to see another run on technology as that is still where the growth is.''</span></p>\n<p><span>这几天还有一个现象就是技术股与其他股票的跷跷板效应。当纳指下跌时,道指和标普上涨,而纳指上涨时,后者下跌。</span></p>\n<p><span>这一天共有24家美国公司发布了盈利预警。公司盈利始终是市场的心病,主要是因为股价上涨过快,大家都担心盈利的增速能否支撑股价。</span></p>\n<p><span>这是头部出现后的第二个周末,股票经历了动荡的一周,但是考虑到之前类似的接近10%调整并不少见,加上周四和周五股票已经收回部分跌幅,市场的心态依然是良好的。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月20日周一。雷曼发布了创纪录的盈利数据,券商和银行股早盘大涨。但指数收盘下跌1.8%。今天市场传闻联储下次加息幅度将是50个基点,而不是以往的25。但也有分析师从历史数据分析,纳指在过去4次加息中,都是上涨,认为这个担心是多余的。</span></p>\n<p><span>这里我们会看到市场情绪的快速切换。宏观事件对股票的冲击持续时间往往都有限,甚至包括海湾战争之类的冲击,影响都不会特别长。我就是我提出投机市场“近视眼模型”的例证之一。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月21日周二。在英特尔、美光、美国在线领涨下,美股上涨1.6%。一家管理70亿美元的基金说,投资者持续追加资金进入技术股,这是他们必须拥有的股票。中国的段子手可能将来会引用这段话嘲笑这些基金经理,但这种嘲笑没有任何意义。因为只要设想一下,换了你,你会怎么做?今天的新闻是过去三天,一共有170亿美元涌入了股票基金,其中54亿美元进入了信息科技和互联网股票。加息担忧似乎消退了,宴会继续。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月22日周三。联邦政府可能结束对微软的反垄断调查,微软大涨。彭博新闻社的评论是,泡沫论无法阻止激进投资者。过去这些年,大量持有科技股的基金经理到处宣言投资科技股的收益,以及,科技股的确在改变我们的生活。人人都要做长期持股的有远见的投资者。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月23日周四。纳指大涨2.7%。临近季度末,过去几年流行的季末效应再度在市场传闻,即基金喜欢在季末公布持股前买入热门股票,以此讨好投资者。微软和解的信息继续鼓励市场,而资金依然在加速流入股市。</span></p>\n<p><span>这就是我为什么从来不看股市资金流动这个指标,因为这个指标,可以理解成为是笨蛋指标。在所有投机市场中,聪明钱寻找的都是先行指标。</span></p>\n<p><span>U.S. Stocks Extend Gains as Microsoft Rises; Cisco Shares Gain</span></p>\n<p><span>Some gains were spurred by money managers' attempting to ``window dress'' their portfolios by buying the recent big gainers before investors scrutinize their performance at the quarter's end.</span></p>\n<p><span>``The momentum has returned,'' said Joe DeMarco, head of stock trading for HSBC Asset Management Americas Inc. ``It's the end of the quarter, and window dressing is probably a part of the move.''</span></p>\n<p><span>Microsoft gained 2 5/8 to 114 1/2. Lawyers for the company and Justice Department were heading to Chicago for a mediation session with a federal judge. The government's antitrust chief was expected to attend.</span></p>\n<p><span>An estimated $21.9 billion flowed into all equity funds in the five days ending Wednesday, compared with $4.4 billion during the prior week, according to Carl Wittnebert, director of research at TrimTabs.com.</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月24日周五。连续几天上涨后,市场情绪明显高涨。分析师看好技术股盈利,同时认为技术股应该享有溢价。纳指创下了过去9年最好的一季度表现。新高似乎指日可待。但是这天,股票收了一个十字星,最高点5079,距离历史高点一步之遥。我们现在来看这些基金经理的话,是不是依然觉得充满道理和逻辑呢?分析师已经将一季度技术股的盈利增长调整到22%。</span></p>\n<p><span>Profit Expectations Signal Nasdaq Gains: U.S. Stocks Outlook</span></p>\n<p><span>New York, March 24 (Bloomberg) -- The Nasdaq Composite Index, headed for its best first-quarter performance in nine years, may rally further, some investors and analysts say.</span></p>\n<p><span>Computer-related and telecommunications companies, which make up 72 percent of the index, are expected to post faster profit growth this quarter than companies in other industries. A higher percentage of Nasdaq stocks have advanced this quarter than in all of 1999.</span></p>\n<p><span>And investors don't seem to mind paying the premium Nasdaq shares command, compared with stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.</span></p>\n<p><span>``Tech is headed higher -- investors are discriminating>In the past two weeks, Orlando bought shares of Oracle Corp., JDS Uniphase Corp. and Flextronics International Ltd., a maker of circuit boards and cell phones that has beaten analysts' earnings estimates for four of five quarters.</span></p>\n<p><span>Faster Profit Growth</span></p>\n<p><span>Analysts surveyed by First Call/Thomson financial expect 22 percent first-quarter profit growth from the telecommunications and computer-related companies in the S&P 500, including Nasdaq stocks such as Microsoft Corp., Dell Computer Corp. and Cisco Systems Inc. That's up from 14.6 percent last quarter and more than the 18.3 percent average for the entire index.</span><br></p>\n<p><span>这周投资者经历了狂野的一周,但最终股市继续上涨,唯一的遗憾可能就是周五没能一举新高。但对于相信“逢低买入”的投资者而言,这又是他们愚蠢信条胜利的一周。下周股市会继续新高,不是吗?</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月27日周一。高盛的Abby Cohen将股票配置比例从70%下调到65%,将现金比例从0增加到5%。她是著名的股票多头,这是从1999年1月份以来,她第一次下调股票比例。但她同时看好标普,将标普的年度目标价格上调3.3%至1575。而该年结束时,标普实际点位是1320。如果读过《对冲基金风云录》的读者,大概已经知道Cohen就是其中一个角色的原型了吧。当天股票下跌0.1%,收盘在4958.56。</span></p>\n<p><span>我们来看看当时一家2.4亿美元规模投资公司的说法。</span></p>\n<p><span>U.S. Stocks Fall After Goldman's Cohen Reduces Equity Weighting</span></p>\n<p><span>Cohen, one of Wall Street's most bullish strategists, reduced the stock weighting in her model portfolio to 65 percent from 70 percent and raised the cash allocation to 5 percent from zero.</span></p>\n<p><span>``When she speaks, markets move, and rightfully so,'' said Richard Sichel, chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., which oversees $240 million. ``She has a lot of credibility, and she's earned it.''</span></p>\n<p><span>Cohen doesn't think the S&P 500 is overvalued, though it probably won't rise more than 10 percent this year, according to a summary of her comments distributed to clients this morning.</span></p>\n<p><span>Cohen last week raised her year-end target on the S&P 500 3.3 percent to 1575 from 1525.</span></p>\n<p><span>我仔细看了Cohen的报告,她实际上对美股还是相当乐观的,她更多是做了一个战术配置的调整,将股票少量从技术股转移到传统股票。而同一天格林斯潘的证词缓解了加息忧虑,因为他认为油价对通胀的影响不足为虑。这一天美国30年期国债收益率5.98%,两年期6.62%,债券收益率倒挂。一些机构认为美联储会在未来几个月将联邦基准利率上调至6.5%。市场还是对通胀存在担忧,当时的通胀水平低于联储政策目标2%,主要是从1999年8月开始通胀有上行趋势。</span></p>\n<p><span>图 2000年美股崩盘时的通胀特征</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a51832543dd6aa19dd5cd7e6956a660c\"></p>\n<p><span>当天领跌的是微软,因为与司法部的和解出现波折。</span><br></p>\n<p><span>我总在想,如果利佛摩尔在世,这一天他会怎么操作?</span></p>\n<p><span>真正在市场一线的人,每天面对的都是这些相互矛盾的信息,利好利空几乎是永远相伴而生。从来没有一个决策是容易的。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月28日周二。市场还在消化Cohen的报告。三大指数全部下跌,纳指下跌2.5%。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月29周三。欧盘时间美股跟随下跌,主要是计算机类股票。摩根斯坦利的Canelo提示客户买入股票。以下是他的理由。</span></p>\n<p><span>Morgan Stanley's Canelo Raises Stock Allocation to 75% From 70%</span></p>\n<p><span>New York, March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. investment strategist Peter Canelo said clients should raise the percentage of assets invested in stocks to 75 percent from 70 percent by adding to non-U.S. holdings.</span></p>\n<p><span>``There are so many reasons to buy stocks,'' said Canelo. ``The inflation scare is over, unit labor costs have collapsed, the U.S. dollar is strong, earnings have been raised 15 percent and productivity is booming. I look at all this stuff and think this is no time to cut back.''</span></p>\n<p><span>Canelo said he expected the Standard & Poor's 500 Index could reach 1695 by the end of the year.</span></p>\n<p><span>当天纳指下跌3.9%,买盘分析散户依然在活跃买入技术类股票。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月30日周四。纳指继续下跌4%。高通、思科和英特尔大跌。距离前高再次达到10%。市场的宏观因子很清晰:技术股盈利增长依然不错,但是价格上涨过快;Buy Dips的成功策略引发的投资者惯性买入。我们看一个管理40亿美元组合基金经理的说法。</span></p>\n<p><span>U.S. Stocks Fall as Investors Flee Computer, Telecom Shares</span></p>\n<p><span>Buying The Dips</span></p>\n<p><span>Some investors saw the Nasdaq's drop as an opportunity to buy shares whose prices have fallen this week.</span></p>\n<p><span>``It's a fast-money crowd of people who trade on very minor news,'' said Rich Barnett, portfolio manager at City National Investments in Beverly Hills, California which oversees $4 billion. ``We're looking at this as a buying opportunity.''</span></p>\n<p><span>Barnett was buying shares in Conexant Systems Inc., down 27 percent this month, and PanAmSat Corp., which dropped 25 percent yesterday.</span></p>\n<p><span>从Barnett买入的股票看,他过去的成功策略最终会让他非常受伤。这也提示我们,机构投资者的行为并不一定就是合理的。研究机构投资者行为,是一种无效率的方法。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月31日周五,纳指反弹2.6%到4572.89。这一周随着股票下跌,债券收益率下行,这是一直存在的跷跷板效应。微软和英特尔盈利喜人。</span></p>\n<p><span>应该说,这一天的行情是比较有迷惑性的。第一,技术支撑位,上次在这里股票得到支撑。第二、技术股领头羊盈利不错,调整买入的力量依然存在,市场会进入到威克夫头部震荡还是下行呢?如果我在当时,严格的说我看不出方向。</span></p>\n<p><span>这一周纳指下跌7.9%,是1月28日以来最大周跌幅。事后看,这一周是多头减仓,空头建仓的最好时机。但是到底如何操作,取决于你之前的状态是什么。如果你一直持有多头,盈利丰富,你很可能把它视为一个正常的技术调整,甚至你会逢低买入;如果你一直在等待做空美股的机会,那么,这一周会是利佛摩尔入场的时机。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月3日纳指暴跌7.6%。盘中传出微软与司法部和解失败,大跌14.5%。技术上破坏了之前头部区间交易的假设。盘后又有一些消息传出,微软股价回升。基金经理觉得这是难得的买入机会,因为即便微软被拆分,拆分后的价值加总依然会大于当前的市值。事后看,这是多么明显的思维偏差,因为这个基金持有了100万股微软股票,市值约9200万美元。</span></p>\n<p><span>Microsoft Gains Following Antitrust Ruling: After-Hours Trading</span></p>\n<p><span>New York, April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Microsoft Corp. shares gained in extended trading after U.S. District Court Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson ruled the world's No. 1 software maker had violated antitrust law.</span></p>\n<p><span>Microsoft rose to 92 13/16 from its 4 p.m. closing price of 90 7/8. Earlier it traded at 92 5/32 in after-hours trading before it was halted for 50 minutes.</span></p>\n<p><span>``It's a buying opportunity,'' said Robert Bissell, president of Wells Capital Management in Los Angeles, which owned 1 million Microsoft shares as of Dec. 31. ``Even if the government broke it up, it's worth more in pieces than the whole.''</span></p>\n<p><span>The company struck exclusive agreements and rolled its browser into its Windows computer operating system illegally, the judge ruled. The ruling precedes hearings to determine penalties that could include breaking up the company. The ruling may also be cited in suits against Microsoft.</span></p>\n<p><span>During the day Microsoft fell 15 3/8 to 90 7/8. ``No one likes legal action,'' Bissell said. ``It presents uncertainty, which investors hate.''</span></p>\n<p><span>读者朋友请注意,我引用这些同行的话,无半点讽刺他们的意思。我其实一直是在想,如果我当时有美股仓位,我会怎么做?我引用这些说法,是想复原当时场景下,我自己构建和分析宏观因子的过程。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月4日,2000年股灾中最狂野的一天。纳指在暴跌13.6%以后收复失地,最后只下跌了1.77%。这是典型的技术破位后的大跌。这天,有些在线券商提高了保证金比例,这也许触发了一些零售卖单。成交量创下历史新高。如果是空头,在暴跌13.6%后同时市场迅速收回时应该果断平掉头寸,至少是一大半。从几次美股大跌情况看,持续的大跌往往会接连发生,所以,当股指发生大幅下跌后,交易者一定要做一个判断,真正的恐慌到底是什么?7%日跌幅就是恐慌极限吗?还是10%以上?</span></p>\n<p><span>买入力量是什么呢?一是空头平仓,二是逢低买入的巨大力量。当天收盘后彭博做了一个专访,采访了很多基金经理,不少人都认为美国经济表现良好,投资者是趁股票大跌进行仓位调整,也有人认为,美股大跌后,联储会停止加息,而这会推升美股。</span></p>\n<p><span>因为当天股指反弹回去,技术派会认为市场底部已经探明,同时市场在底部也显示了不错的流动性,这是多头的理由。</span></p>\n<p><span>到今天,高点到底部的幅度已经是29%,而这一切,就是在短短几个交易日完成的。我们知道,做空美股从来都是一个极难的事情,时机把握非常难,仓位管理非常难,一旦行情启动,如果不能大胆加仓,很难赚到真正大钱。</span></p>\n<p><span>这一天相信对很多人而言,都是终生难忘的一天。直到今天,依然很多人认为美股只是一个正常的技术调整。这里引用的都是一些管理数亿美元基金经理的 盘后采访。</span></p>\n<p><span>Nasdaq Plummets, Rebounds: Investors Comment on a Wild Day</span></p>\n<p><span>New York, April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Investors comment on a wild day in the U.S. stock market, when the Nasdaq Composite Index plunged as much as 13.6 percent only to rebound, ending down 1.77 percent.</span></p>\n<p><span>Richard Strong, chairman of Strong Capital Management Inc. in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, which manages more than $40 billion in mutual funds and other assets:</span><br></p>\n<p><b><span>``The markets were ahead of themselves. But the economy is no different today from where it was 90 days ago or 180 days ago. In all the years I've been in the business (since 1967) the U.S. economy and the world economy are the best they've ever been.''</span></b></p>\n<p><span>读者听到这些话是不是会觉得特别熟悉?每一次股票大跌后,都有人会找经济上的理由。美股每一次崩盘时,经济状况到底如何?这个答案取决于你会不会分析经济数据。对于真正掌握了经济分析精髓的交易者,看的数据完全不同于主流大众的看法。如果在这个时候,还在寻求所谓经济基本面,公司业绩良好来为股票大跌辩护,显然没有理解市场真正运行的逻辑。</span></p>\n<p><span>Steve Saldanha, vice president and director of global asset allocation at CT Investment Management Inc. in Toronto:</span></p>\n<p><span>``We expect this market to resume its move upward in a more stable fashion, centered on well-established large-cap stocks or some of the truly well-managed smaller tech and bio-tech companies with good business plans.''</span></p>\n<p><span>Myles Gillespie, president of Fleet Specialists LLC:</span></p>\n<p><span>``I think this is purely margins and redemptions. The quality stocks will bounce back but the `air' ones won't. This is a real valuation correction for stocks.''</span></p>\n<p><span>Peter Mancuso, specialist for Buttonwood Specialists LLC, which trades CAN Surety Corp., Tasty Baking Co., Ashland Inc., and Universal Foods Corp.:</span></p>\n<p><span>``Things here today are very stable. We've been through this kind of thing before. The market here is groping for a bottom. It's a time of taking stocks out of weak hands and putting them in strong hands. Days like today show that there's real liquidity on this floor.''</span></p>\n<p><span>股票大跌后,也有很多投资者喜欢从轮动的角度去解释市场。上面这些投资者要么以老手自居,认为这种程度的跌幅以前也经历过,正好是市场换手机会;要么就是不愿意放弃技术股偏见,找到各种理由为继续持有技术股辩护。</span></p>\n<p><span>阅读上面这些记录,真是非常感慨。每个交易者都有自己的偏见,当市场发生巨大的范式转换的时候,这种过时的偏见会让一个交易者失去判断能力。这反过来说明,交易体系中,风险控制是何等重要。风险控制的根本是承认我们自己会犯错。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月5日市场剧烈波动,多空反复角力。从技术上讲,这是一个糟糕的信号。说明多头没能一举延续昨天的势头,推高股市。纳指反复7次在上涨和下跌中来回。虽然收盘略高于昨天收盘,但是市场显然还在寻找方向。对于了解市场的人而言,美股的宏观因子非常清晰。一方面是认为技术股的季报会非常好,完全可以支撑当前的股价,而另一方则认为估值已经太高。应该说,两方都有各自的道理,可惜市场只有一面,这个时候,真是该放下自我偏见,认真倾听市场声音的时候了。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月6日周四。纳指反弹2.4%。甲骨文领涨,生物技术公司PE宣布已经解码了99%人类基因组密码。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月7日周五,纳指大幅反弹4.2%。市场依然预期技术股业绩大涨,分析师一致预期一季度EPS增长26%。从技术上,这是一个重要的价位。市场接近4500,正是之前的支撑位,现在变阻力位。如果从下跌底部算起,现在反弹已经超过了20%。可以设想,如果空头当时没有及时平仓或者降低仓位,这种凶猛的反弹也是让人非常难受的。</span></p>\n<p><span>这是2000年科技股泡沫最关键的一周。这一周基本宣布了科技股牛市结束。然而,在当时,相信只有少数人可以做这个判断。从资金讲,暴跌30%已经让一些杠杆资金爆仓,追缴保证金的压力使得最激进的多头已经非常受伤,而从市场心理讲,宏观因子的博弈开始转向估值派,其实没有什么估值,核心就是价格上涨太快了。但不论怎么说,市场毕竟反弹了,所以下周一的行情尤其重要。如果下周一行情不对,那将是多头最明确的出场信号了。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月10日周一,股指大跌5.8%。通过复盘四次美股头部,我发现一个现象,那就是周五和周一的行情特别重要。今天市场的新闻风格终于改变了,大家都在讨论纳指股票估值太高。而终于有一些分析师开始认为美股高点已经过去,这不是一次简单的修正,而可能是一个较长的下跌趋势了。</span></p>\n<p><span>Nasdaq Tumbles to 8th-Biggest Loss Ever; Dow Industrials Gain</span></p>\n<p><span>New York, April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled to its eighth-biggest loss ever as investors unloaded Qualcomm Inc., JDS Uniphase Corp. and other telecommunications and computer-related stocks whose declines have driven down the index 17 percent in a month.</span></p>\n<p><span>Nasdaq stocks trade for an average 208 times recent earnings, while Dow stocks trade for 26 times profit. Analysts polled by First Call project average first-quarter profit growth for companies in the S&P 500 of 18.8 percent.</span></p>\n<p><span>`Corrective Trend'</span></p>\n<p><span>Merrill Lynch & Co.'s chief market analyst, Richard McCabe, said in a report that the computer-related shares that dominate the Nasdaq have further to slide even after the index dropped three out of the four weeks since setting its last record. The Nasdaq, which fell as much as 13.6 percent Tuesday before rebounding, has dropped 17 percent from its high March 10.</span></p>\n<p><span>``The technology sector has begun an important corrective trend,'' McCabe wrote. The month-long decline ``is not a brief, random event, but the beginning of a longer-lasting change.'' He advised buying energy, financial and consumer-cyclical shares.</span></p>\n<p><span>我们可以看到,到这一天,市场情绪完全转变了。摩托罗拉宣布二季度盈利可能会低于之前预估,股市与经济的相互影响开始出现。这个时候,是空头重新入场或者加大仓位的绝好时机,如果是之前采取了对冲结构,那么现在就是变为净空头的有利时机。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月11日周二。纳指下跌3.2%。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月12日周三,纳指下跌7.1%。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月13日周四,开盘纳指一度反弹3.9%,但最终下跌2.5%,这个跌幅几乎是在收盘前45分钟完成的,指数点位3676.78。</span></p>\n<p><span>这天的经历在2018年2月初的美股波动中我是深有体会。美股的情绪崩塌,往往在收盘前30分钟会达到高潮。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月14日周五,纳指下跌9.7%,股指收于3321.29,回想一个月之前5133的高点,恍若隔世。市场开始为暴跌寻找理由,其中包括股票杠杆融资过多。而CPI数据则创下过去五年的最高增速,这意味着5月16日美联储还可能继续加息。</span></p>\n<p><span>这是典型的美股崩盘第二波。在1929年,1987年和2008年都出现过,我相信在未来也会出现。这里面实际上是市场情绪变化的痕迹,而市场最终用买卖行为诠释了主流偏见的变化。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月17日周一,纳指反弹6.6%,在技术上形成了一个标准的牛市孕入,考虑到股票已经下跌39%,分析师纷纷呼吁买入股票,因为股票已经足够便宜。高盛的Cohen继续坚持她关于标普年度目标的判断。实际上,故事已经结束,这个时候,空头应该退出仓位,或者小范围参与做多反弹。</span></p>\n<p><span>接下来,纳指就进入了一个长达7个月的区间震荡,股指在3000和4280之间来回震荡,上下杀人。直到2000年底,纳指跌破3000,开始下一轮快速下跌过程。</span></p>\n<p>4<span>2019年的纳指</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e412a097ea4ae58c60694951736d9887\"></p>\n<p><span>首先、我们应该很难看到2000年的纳指短时间快速崩盘。因为美股短期的涨幅是温和的,特别是2018年9月和2019年5月,股指有过两次较大规模调整。</span></p>\n<p><span>其次、2000年美股崩盘的一个主要催化剂是微软。这一点,2019年有很多可以想象的冲击,包括苹果、脸书、亚马逊都有可能成为市场冲击的主要原因。在当前盈利增长缓慢,经济周期先行指数在零附近的情况下,在地缘政治冲突密布的背景下,我们并不知道是否会有某个冲击事件引发连锁反应。</span></p>\n<p><span>第三、连锁反应启动后,不需要担心后续的燃料。最主要的燃料其实就是股票多头本身。美股长达数年的上涨行情,有了大量的盈利盘,而这些盈利盘很多是通过ETF等指数基金实现的。而这些年的低利率,导致各种显性和隐形的股票杠杆很高,一旦市场快速下跌,引发杠杆盘追加保证金或者强行平仓,市场具备深跌的可能性。</span></p>\n<p><span>第四、金融脆弱性主要在于中小企业高杠杆融资。这点罗素小盘股指数已经指明了市场方向。所以,这一轮美股下跌,领跌的很可能是中小盘股指,而不是传统的纳指或者标普。2018年9月份的市场动荡中,罗素2000下跌幅度最深,达到了27.28%。股票价格与高杠杆融资的确存在一种正反馈机制,但是能否启动这种正反馈,需要我们密切跟踪高杠杆融资的违约情况。</span></p>","source":"qqggdh","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股2000年崩盘启示录\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2019-08-12 09:17 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UQPIaN9aDgdWvUV1L6hZRA><strong> 全球宏观投机</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2019年美股更像哪一年?\n首先,并不像1929年,也不像2008年。虽然美国高息公司债一直是市场老手琢磨的重点,但是现在的确还没有证据表明2019年高息债市场已经类似2006年的次贷市场。1929年是疯狂的杠杆做多股票(很类似2015年的中国股市),现在美股的大环境已经跟1929年完全无法比拟,尤其是央行和政府在应对市场危机方面。\n2019年的美股会是一个全新的格局,跟历史上每一次大型熊市的起点...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UQPIaN9aDgdWvUV1L6hZRA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UQPIaN9aDgdWvUV1L6hZRA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165923562","content_text":"2019年美股更像哪一年?\n首先,并不像1929年,也不像2008年。虽然美国高息公司债一直是市场老手琢磨的重点,但是现在的确还没有证据表明2019年高息债市场已经类似2006年的次贷市场。1929年是疯狂的杠杆做多股票(很类似2015年的中国股市),现在美股的大环境已经跟1929年完全无法比拟,尤其是央行和政府在应对市场危机方面。\n2019年的美股会是一个全新的格局,跟历史上每一次大型熊市的起点可能都不相同。因为这是一个全新的低利率时代、政府对股市的关注前所未有、积累了丰富的应对市场内部崩盘的经验(这是1987年的教训),日本央行开创的QQE包括了直接购买股票ETF的先例。所以,我们要在这种新的历史条件下探讨市场未来崩盘的路径。\n不过正如利佛摩尔所说,人性如山岳一般古老,懒惰、恐惧、贪婪和幻想是人性的基本部分,这决定了任何市场都有繁荣-萧条周期,而金融监管总是走在市场崩盘后面。这决定了未来一段时间,美股会有大型波动(超过30%)。\n我这次复盘2000年技术泡沫,原因如下:\n这是一次大型股票衰退,从波峰到波谷,纳斯达克综合指数一共有72%跌幅。\n这次崩盘的直接触发因素是公司在信息技术方面的投资超过需求,市场过度投资了技术类股票的前景。\n监管上的缺陷主要包括大量公司财务造假,这是繁荣时期和监管放松阶段的必然产物。\n这些特征与我设想的美股下一次崩盘有类似之处。这也是美股上个世纪以来几次主要大型衰退中我唯一还没有复盘的一个,这次算是补充家庭作业。\n2周期、美股、美元和加息\n中文世界里面充斥了各种关于美股的不真实信息,譬如加息刺破泡沫,加息提振美元之类。真实的情况是,1980年代以来的几次美股下跌(超过20%)与加息周期的关系并不明朗,甚至几乎都是加息周期结束后才达到股票顶点。而美元与美联储加息周期更是毫无关系。\n图 1980年代以来的美股、美元与加息\n\n本轮美联储从7月30日开始进入降息周期,这倒是提醒我们,美股大跌的时间可能临近了,如果我们相信历史数据的话。上图红框是美国加息周期,绿线是标普,紫红线是美元指数。\n其中,与2000年美股头部加息相关的起始日期是1999年6月15日到2000年5月12日。事后我们知道,美股头部出现在2000年3月(以纳指算)。\n决定货币政策、资产价格和投资者情绪最深层的力量是经济周期。那么,2000年股市头部对应的经济周期如何呢?\n图 互联网泡沫时代的经济周期\n\n数据来源:ECRI\n在我之前公开发表的文章中,我提示了经济周期分析的技巧。美国经济的高点出现在1999年7月,但此时股票开始最后的大涨,经济在2000年5月出现较为明显的走弱,而此时股票头部已现。但是在当时,除非是极高明的交易者,是不敢确认说股票高点已经出现。\n简单看,这一轮经济周期与股指的关系依然非常经典。经济周期先行指数领先或者同步于股票头部。这一次,经济周期顶点领先股票顶点9个月,在经济周期先行指数接近同比为负时股票确认头部。\n图 2000年美股头部的技术特征\n\n我们看到,标普依然是一个标准的圆形顶,而纳指则表现出更大的波动性。同样,我们可以从跌幅看,纳指的跌幅远大于标普,这也给我们启发:下一次做空美股的主攻方向。一般美股头部的重要经验是,领涨板块出现回落。我们一会儿分析2019年的图形。\n3股市头部总是悄无声息\n接下来,我们回到历史现场,逐日过一遍当时的市场新闻。与我公开发表的1929年和1987年复盘一样,依然是采用当时的实时新闻加上我自己的思考。新闻来源全部是彭博。\n 2000年3月10日。股票指数新高。因为交易过于活跃,以至于交易堵塞了一分多钟,指数停止更新了40分钟,交易量持续新高。前一天纳指超越5000,这是一个历史性的时刻,要注意整数关口的心理含义。此时,华尔街讨论的是,何时如何超越6000。我直接引用当时的一个报导。另外,3月10日是周五。这一天,纳指最高点是5133。一切似乎都非常完美。市场虽然不时有一些下挫,但是很快就会回到上涨趋势。\nInvestors Question What Group Will Lead Nasdaq Higher, WSJ Says\nNew York, March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Nasdaq Composite's surge to 5000 has resembled a race with one group of technology stocks passing the baton to another, and analysts and investors are questioning what group will lead it to 6000, the Wall Street Journal reported in its ``Heard on the Street'' column. Microsoft Corp. and Dell Computer Corp. helped push the Nasdaq to 4000, and then upstarts such as PMC-Sierra Inc. and Juniper Networks Inc. helped it reach 5000. Tom Marsico, head of Marsico Capital Management, expects Entrust Technologies Inc. and Flextronics International Ltd. to help propel the Nasdaq to a new high, while Ruth Porat of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter said she expects the Internet stocks will continue to lead, the paper said.\nThe Nasdaq Composite Index closed above 5000 for the first time in its 29-year history yesterday.\n一个愉快的周末,投资者继续享受计算机、互联网和生物科技等新经济股票带来的巨大收益。虽然不少市场老手担忧股价上升过快(表现的结果是估值过高),但是并没有明显的头部特征,即便有,也有可能是市场自发的一个技术调整。\n 2000年3月13日周一。日本经济数据显示将连续第二个季度陷入收缩。周日巴菲特表示美国股市投资者乐观过度,股市将会有修正,当天美国股指期货在亚盘和欧盘时间下跌,领跌的是戴尔和亚马逊,市场担心日本是否还有足够的IT需求。美股开盘大跌,纳指最低下跌超过4%,收盘下跌1.5%。市场讨论较多的是信息技术类股票的盈利是否能支持股票目前的涨幅。虽然是糟糕的一天,但是没有人能看到美股高点已过。当天股指剧烈波动,高点达到5027,收盘图形是高上影线的小实体,这说明多头一度试图把握优势,但是收盘时不得不退回到4907,但相比开盘,股指收涨。\n 3月14日周二。知名股票分析师Dorfman分析了当时的市场深度,标普、道指和纳指出现了历史上少见的显著分离,除了纳指继续大涨外,标普和道指都下跌。这种市场背离是一个非常典型的股票头部标志,意味着股指的新高是由少数股票贡献的,多数股票的买盘已经力度不足。仔细分析下表美国最大市值20家公司的涨跌,Dorfman发现9只上涨11只下降。20只股票集中在计算机、通信和制药行业。从涨跌比例上看不出特别的分离,但是如果看涨跌幅和市盈率,那我们很容易就发现市场的深度很薄,这意味着一旦市场转向,下跌的力度很大。\n当日早盘大涨,但收盘大跌4.1%。热门股甲骨文一季度盈利超过市场预期,英特尔宣布收购欧洲一家技术公司,分析师对技术股普遍乐观,将一季度盈利增长上调到18.3%,之前是18%。当天虽然股票大跌,但刚上市的三只互联网股票中有两只翻倍。\n周二的图形非常难看。预示着调整没有结束。但公司盈利的数据会麻痹很多人。既然甲骨文和英特尔都保持了这么好的盈利数据,市场的高价也许是合理的。这个时候,你是相信公司盈利数据(宏观因子之一)还是图形呢(另外一个宏观因子)?所以,不要嘲笑在这天逢低买入美股的人。\nPIMCO公司的Hodge继续警告美股风险,但是他的用词是修正,虽然他也说了,泡沫不会慢慢破灭的。在市场狂热气氛中,很多老手都知道状况不可持续,但是谁也不敢说这就是泡沫的头部。从3月10日到24日的图形见下。\n图 头部总是在不经意间到来\n\n我也比较了美国如今市值最大20家公司过去三个月的相对表现,发现目前美股的市场深度合理,市值最大20家公司12家上涨,8家下跌,从行业分布、涨跌幅、市盈率看,当前美股相对健康。\n表 2000年美股深度\n\n表 美股市场深度2019\n\n 3月15日周三。PPI数据显示美国没有通胀压力,给股票提供了宏观支撑。今天也是开盘上涨,收盘下跌。纳指距离高点10%,符合一般所讲的“技术调整”范畴。此时很多投资者虽然认为技术股需要继续调整,但其他股票被低估,股票总体依然有机会。引用当时一个基金经理的说法:\nNasdaq Falls, Down 10% From Record; Dow Rallies for Second Day\n``The Nasdaq stocks are still in a period of uncertainty with many needing to correct,'' said Henry Cavanna, a money manager with J.P. Morgan & Co. which oversees $320 million.\nMany investors, including Cavanna, are instead buying financial, drug and industrial companies, ``which are showing signs of life,'' he said.\n市场在关注雅虎收购eBay的传闻。可见,市场在头部区域依然不乏各种美好的想象。换了我们,会在当时买入eBay吗?这是每一个交易员都应该问自己的问题。\n 3月16日周四。在微软和高通带领下,纳指强势反弹,一根长长的下影线。多头会认为,调整可能结束了。耐克利润增长17%,略超预期,股价大涨。看起来股票可能又要回到上涨趋势。\n 3月17日周五,纳指上涨1.7%。很多大型基金经理继续看涨技术股,认为过去一周的调整提供了很好的买点。\nNasdaq Gains a 2nd Day; Dow Falls, Finishes Best Week Since '84\nVeritas Software Corp. and Qualcomm Inc. were among the big gainers in the Nasdaq, which rose 80.74, or 1.7 percent, to 4798.13 on expectations money will continue flowing into mutual funds that buy computer-related and telecommunications stocks.\n``A lot of these stocks, such as JDS Uniphase, are down for the week and are buying opportunities,'' said Gil Knight, a portfolio manager with Allied Investment Advisors Inc. in Baltimore, which oversees $10 billion. ``We are about to see another run on technology as that is still where the growth is.''\n这几天还有一个现象就是技术股与其他股票的跷跷板效应。当纳指下跌时,道指和标普上涨,而纳指上涨时,后者下跌。\n这一天共有24家美国公司发布了盈利预警。公司盈利始终是市场的心病,主要是因为股价上涨过快,大家都担心盈利的增速能否支撑股价。\n这是头部出现后的第二个周末,股票经历了动荡的一周,但是考虑到之前类似的接近10%调整并不少见,加上周四和周五股票已经收回部分跌幅,市场的心态依然是良好的。\n 3月20日周一。雷曼发布了创纪录的盈利数据,券商和银行股早盘大涨。但指数收盘下跌1.8%。今天市场传闻联储下次加息幅度将是50个基点,而不是以往的25。但也有分析师从历史数据分析,纳指在过去4次加息中,都是上涨,认为这个担心是多余的。\n这里我们会看到市场情绪的快速切换。宏观事件对股票的冲击持续时间往往都有限,甚至包括海湾战争之类的冲击,影响都不会特别长。我就是我提出投机市场“近视眼模型”的例证之一。\n 3月21日周二。在英特尔、美光、美国在线领涨下,美股上涨1.6%。一家管理70亿美元的基金说,投资者持续追加资金进入技术股,这是他们必须拥有的股票。中国的段子手可能将来会引用这段话嘲笑这些基金经理,但这种嘲笑没有任何意义。因为只要设想一下,换了你,你会怎么做?今天的新闻是过去三天,一共有170亿美元涌入了股票基金,其中54亿美元进入了信息科技和互联网股票。加息担忧似乎消退了,宴会继续。\n 3月22日周三。联邦政府可能结束对微软的反垄断调查,微软大涨。彭博新闻社的评论是,泡沫论无法阻止激进投资者。过去这些年,大量持有科技股的基金经理到处宣言投资科技股的收益,以及,科技股的确在改变我们的生活。人人都要做长期持股的有远见的投资者。\n 3月23日周四。纳指大涨2.7%。临近季度末,过去几年流行的季末效应再度在市场传闻,即基金喜欢在季末公布持股前买入热门股票,以此讨好投资者。微软和解的信息继续鼓励市场,而资金依然在加速流入股市。\n这就是我为什么从来不看股市资金流动这个指标,因为这个指标,可以理解成为是笨蛋指标。在所有投机市场中,聪明钱寻找的都是先行指标。\nU.S. Stocks Extend Gains as Microsoft Rises; Cisco Shares Gain\nSome gains were spurred by money managers' attempting to ``window dress'' their portfolios by buying the recent big gainers before investors scrutinize their performance at the quarter's end.\n``The momentum has returned,'' said Joe DeMarco, head of stock trading for HSBC Asset Management Americas Inc. ``It's the end of the quarter, and window dressing is probably a part of the move.''\nMicrosoft gained 2 5/8 to 114 1/2. Lawyers for the company and Justice Department were heading to Chicago for a mediation session with a federal judge. The government's antitrust chief was expected to attend.\nAn estimated $21.9 billion flowed into all equity funds in the five days ending Wednesday, compared with $4.4 billion during the prior week, according to Carl Wittnebert, director of research at TrimTabs.com.\n 3月24日周五。连续几天上涨后,市场情绪明显高涨。分析师看好技术股盈利,同时认为技术股应该享有溢价。纳指创下了过去9年最好的一季度表现。新高似乎指日可待。但是这天,股票收了一个十字星,最高点5079,距离历史高点一步之遥。我们现在来看这些基金经理的话,是不是依然觉得充满道理和逻辑呢?分析师已经将一季度技术股的盈利增长调整到22%。\nProfit Expectations Signal Nasdaq Gains: U.S. Stocks Outlook\nNew York, March 24 (Bloomberg) -- The Nasdaq Composite Index, headed for its best first-quarter performance in nine years, may rally further, some investors and analysts say.\nComputer-related and telecommunications companies, which make up 72 percent of the index, are expected to post faster profit growth this quarter than companies in other industries. A higher percentage of Nasdaq stocks have advanced this quarter than in all of 1999.\nAnd investors don't seem to mind paying the premium Nasdaq shares command, compared with stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.\n``Tech is headed higher -- investors are discriminating>In the past two weeks, Orlando bought shares of Oracle Corp., JDS Uniphase Corp. and Flextronics International Ltd., a maker of circuit boards and cell phones that has beaten analysts' earnings estimates for four of five quarters.\nFaster Profit Growth\nAnalysts surveyed by First Call/Thomson financial expect 22 percent first-quarter profit growth from the telecommunications and computer-related companies in the S&P 500, including Nasdaq stocks such as Microsoft Corp., Dell Computer Corp. and Cisco Systems Inc. That's up from 14.6 percent last quarter and more than the 18.3 percent average for the entire index.\n这周投资者经历了狂野的一周,但最终股市继续上涨,唯一的遗憾可能就是周五没能一举新高。但对于相信“逢低买入”的投资者而言,这又是他们愚蠢信条胜利的一周。下周股市会继续新高,不是吗?\n 3月27日周一。高盛的Abby Cohen将股票配置比例从70%下调到65%,将现金比例从0增加到5%。她是著名的股票多头,这是从1999年1月份以来,她第一次下调股票比例。但她同时看好标普,将标普的年度目标价格上调3.3%至1575。而该年结束时,标普实际点位是1320。如果读过《对冲基金风云录》的读者,大概已经知道Cohen就是其中一个角色的原型了吧。当天股票下跌0.1%,收盘在4958.56。\n我们来看看当时一家2.4亿美元规模投资公司的说法。\nU.S. Stocks Fall After Goldman's Cohen Reduces Equity Weighting\nCohen, one of Wall Street's most bullish strategists, reduced the stock weighting in her model portfolio to 65 percent from 70 percent and raised the cash allocation to 5 percent from zero.\n``When she speaks, markets move, and rightfully so,'' said Richard Sichel, chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., which oversees $240 million. ``She has a lot of credibility, and she's earned it.''\nCohen doesn't think the S&P 500 is overvalued, though it probably won't rise more than 10 percent this year, according to a summary of her comments distributed to clients this morning.\nCohen last week raised her year-end target on the S&P 500 3.3 percent to 1575 from 1525.\n我仔细看了Cohen的报告,她实际上对美股还是相当乐观的,她更多是做了一个战术配置的调整,将股票少量从技术股转移到传统股票。而同一天格林斯潘的证词缓解了加息忧虑,因为他认为油价对通胀的影响不足为虑。这一天美国30年期国债收益率5.98%,两年期6.62%,债券收益率倒挂。一些机构认为美联储会在未来几个月将联邦基准利率上调至6.5%。市场还是对通胀存在担忧,当时的通胀水平低于联储政策目标2%,主要是从1999年8月开始通胀有上行趋势。\n图 2000年美股崩盘时的通胀特征\n\n当天领跌的是微软,因为与司法部的和解出现波折。\n我总在想,如果利佛摩尔在世,这一天他会怎么操作?\n真正在市场一线的人,每天面对的都是这些相互矛盾的信息,利好利空几乎是永远相伴而生。从来没有一个决策是容易的。\n 3月28日周二。市场还在消化Cohen的报告。三大指数全部下跌,纳指下跌2.5%。\n 3月29周三。欧盘时间美股跟随下跌,主要是计算机类股票。摩根斯坦利的Canelo提示客户买入股票。以下是他的理由。\nMorgan Stanley's Canelo Raises Stock Allocation to 75% From 70%\nNew York, March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. investment strategist Peter Canelo said clients should raise the percentage of assets invested in stocks to 75 percent from 70 percent by adding to non-U.S. holdings.\n``There are so many reasons to buy stocks,'' said Canelo. ``The inflation scare is over, unit labor costs have collapsed, the U.S. dollar is strong, earnings have been raised 15 percent and productivity is booming. I look at all this stuff and think this is no time to cut back.''\nCanelo said he expected the Standard & Poor's 500 Index could reach 1695 by the end of the year.\n当天纳指下跌3.9%,买盘分析散户依然在活跃买入技术类股票。\n 3月30日周四。纳指继续下跌4%。高通、思科和英特尔大跌。距离前高再次达到10%。市场的宏观因子很清晰:技术股盈利增长依然不错,但是价格上涨过快;Buy Dips的成功策略引发的投资者惯性买入。我们看一个管理40亿美元组合基金经理的说法。\nU.S. Stocks Fall as Investors Flee Computer, Telecom Shares\nBuying The Dips\nSome investors saw the Nasdaq's drop as an opportunity to buy shares whose prices have fallen this week.\n``It's a fast-money crowd of people who trade on very minor news,'' said Rich Barnett, portfolio manager at City National Investments in Beverly Hills, California which oversees $4 billion. ``We're looking at this as a buying opportunity.''\nBarnett was buying shares in Conexant Systems Inc., down 27 percent this month, and PanAmSat Corp., which dropped 25 percent yesterday.\n从Barnett买入的股票看,他过去的成功策略最终会让他非常受伤。这也提示我们,机构投资者的行为并不一定就是合理的。研究机构投资者行为,是一种无效率的方法。\n 3月31日周五,纳指反弹2.6%到4572.89。这一周随着股票下跌,债券收益率下行,这是一直存在的跷跷板效应。微软和英特尔盈利喜人。\n应该说,这一天的行情是比较有迷惑性的。第一,技术支撑位,上次在这里股票得到支撑。第二、技术股领头羊盈利不错,调整买入的力量依然存在,市场会进入到威克夫头部震荡还是下行呢?如果我在当时,严格的说我看不出方向。\n这一周纳指下跌7.9%,是1月28日以来最大周跌幅。事后看,这一周是多头减仓,空头建仓的最好时机。但是到底如何操作,取决于你之前的状态是什么。如果你一直持有多头,盈利丰富,你很可能把它视为一个正常的技术调整,甚至你会逢低买入;如果你一直在等待做空美股的机会,那么,这一周会是利佛摩尔入场的时机。\n 4月3日纳指暴跌7.6%。盘中传出微软与司法部和解失败,大跌14.5%。技术上破坏了之前头部区间交易的假设。盘后又有一些消息传出,微软股价回升。基金经理觉得这是难得的买入机会,因为即便微软被拆分,拆分后的价值加总依然会大于当前的市值。事后看,这是多么明显的思维偏差,因为这个基金持有了100万股微软股票,市值约9200万美元。\nMicrosoft Gains Following Antitrust Ruling: After-Hours Trading\nNew York, April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Microsoft Corp. shares gained in extended trading after U.S. District Court Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson ruled the world's No. 1 software maker had violated antitrust law.\nMicrosoft rose to 92 13/16 from its 4 p.m. closing price of 90 7/8. Earlier it traded at 92 5/32 in after-hours trading before it was halted for 50 minutes.\n``It's a buying opportunity,'' said Robert Bissell, president of Wells Capital Management in Los Angeles, which owned 1 million Microsoft shares as of Dec. 31. ``Even if the government broke it up, it's worth more in pieces than the whole.''\nThe company struck exclusive agreements and rolled its browser into its Windows computer operating system illegally, the judge ruled. The ruling precedes hearings to determine penalties that could include breaking up the company. The ruling may also be cited in suits against Microsoft.\nDuring the day Microsoft fell 15 3/8 to 90 7/8. ``No one likes legal action,'' Bissell said. ``It presents uncertainty, which investors hate.''\n读者朋友请注意,我引用这些同行的话,无半点讽刺他们的意思。我其实一直是在想,如果我当时有美股仓位,我会怎么做?我引用这些说法,是想复原当时场景下,我自己构建和分析宏观因子的过程。\n 4月4日,2000年股灾中最狂野的一天。纳指在暴跌13.6%以后收复失地,最后只下跌了1.77%。这是典型的技术破位后的大跌。这天,有些在线券商提高了保证金比例,这也许触发了一些零售卖单。成交量创下历史新高。如果是空头,在暴跌13.6%后同时市场迅速收回时应该果断平掉头寸,至少是一大半。从几次美股大跌情况看,持续的大跌往往会接连发生,所以,当股指发生大幅下跌后,交易者一定要做一个判断,真正的恐慌到底是什么?7%日跌幅就是恐慌极限吗?还是10%以上?\n买入力量是什么呢?一是空头平仓,二是逢低买入的巨大力量。当天收盘后彭博做了一个专访,采访了很多基金经理,不少人都认为美国经济表现良好,投资者是趁股票大跌进行仓位调整,也有人认为,美股大跌后,联储会停止加息,而这会推升美股。\n因为当天股指反弹回去,技术派会认为市场底部已经探明,同时市场在底部也显示了不错的流动性,这是多头的理由。\n到今天,高点到底部的幅度已经是29%,而这一切,就是在短短几个交易日完成的。我们知道,做空美股从来都是一个极难的事情,时机把握非常难,仓位管理非常难,一旦行情启动,如果不能大胆加仓,很难赚到真正大钱。\n这一天相信对很多人而言,都是终生难忘的一天。直到今天,依然很多人认为美股只是一个正常的技术调整。这里引用的都是一些管理数亿美元基金经理的 盘后采访。\nNasdaq Plummets, Rebounds: Investors Comment on a Wild Day\nNew York, April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Investors comment on a wild day in the U.S. stock market, when the Nasdaq Composite Index plunged as much as 13.6 percent only to rebound, ending down 1.77 percent.\nRichard Strong, chairman of Strong Capital Management Inc. in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, which manages more than $40 billion in mutual funds and other assets:\n``The markets were ahead of themselves. But the economy is no different today from where it was 90 days ago or 180 days ago. In all the years I've been in the business (since 1967) the U.S. economy and the world economy are the best they've ever been.''\n读者听到这些话是不是会觉得特别熟悉?每一次股票大跌后,都有人会找经济上的理由。美股每一次崩盘时,经济状况到底如何?这个答案取决于你会不会分析经济数据。对于真正掌握了经济分析精髓的交易者,看的数据完全不同于主流大众的看法。如果在这个时候,还在寻求所谓经济基本面,公司业绩良好来为股票大跌辩护,显然没有理解市场真正运行的逻辑。\nSteve Saldanha, vice president and director of global asset allocation at CT Investment Management Inc. in Toronto:\n``We expect this market to resume its move upward in a more stable fashion, centered on well-established large-cap stocks or some of the truly well-managed smaller tech and bio-tech companies with good business plans.''\nMyles Gillespie, president of Fleet Specialists LLC:\n``I think this is purely margins and redemptions. The quality stocks will bounce back but the `air' ones won't. This is a real valuation correction for stocks.''\nPeter Mancuso, specialist for Buttonwood Specialists LLC, which trades CAN Surety Corp., Tasty Baking Co., Ashland Inc., and Universal Foods Corp.:\n``Things here today are very stable. We've been through this kind of thing before. The market here is groping for a bottom. It's a time of taking stocks out of weak hands and putting them in strong hands. Days like today show that there's real liquidity on this floor.''\n股票大跌后,也有很多投资者喜欢从轮动的角度去解释市场。上面这些投资者要么以老手自居,认为这种程度的跌幅以前也经历过,正好是市场换手机会;要么就是不愿意放弃技术股偏见,找到各种理由为继续持有技术股辩护。\n阅读上面这些记录,真是非常感慨。每个交易者都有自己的偏见,当市场发生巨大的范式转换的时候,这种过时的偏见会让一个交易者失去判断能力。这反过来说明,交易体系中,风险控制是何等重要。风险控制的根本是承认我们自己会犯错。\n 4月5日市场剧烈波动,多空反复角力。从技术上讲,这是一个糟糕的信号。说明多头没能一举延续昨天的势头,推高股市。纳指反复7次在上涨和下跌中来回。虽然收盘略高于昨天收盘,但是市场显然还在寻找方向。对于了解市场的人而言,美股的宏观因子非常清晰。一方面是认为技术股的季报会非常好,完全可以支撑当前的股价,而另一方则认为估值已经太高。应该说,两方都有各自的道理,可惜市场只有一面,这个时候,真是该放下自我偏见,认真倾听市场声音的时候了。\n 4月6日周四。纳指反弹2.4%。甲骨文领涨,生物技术公司PE宣布已经解码了99%人类基因组密码。\n 4月7日周五,纳指大幅反弹4.2%。市场依然预期技术股业绩大涨,分析师一致预期一季度EPS增长26%。从技术上,这是一个重要的价位。市场接近4500,正是之前的支撑位,现在变阻力位。如果从下跌底部算起,现在反弹已经超过了20%。可以设想,如果空头当时没有及时平仓或者降低仓位,这种凶猛的反弹也是让人非常难受的。\n这是2000年科技股泡沫最关键的一周。这一周基本宣布了科技股牛市结束。然而,在当时,相信只有少数人可以做这个判断。从资金讲,暴跌30%已经让一些杠杆资金爆仓,追缴保证金的压力使得最激进的多头已经非常受伤,而从市场心理讲,宏观因子的博弈开始转向估值派,其实没有什么估值,核心就是价格上涨太快了。但不论怎么说,市场毕竟反弹了,所以下周一的行情尤其重要。如果下周一行情不对,那将是多头最明确的出场信号了。\n 4月10日周一,股指大跌5.8%。通过复盘四次美股头部,我发现一个现象,那就是周五和周一的行情特别重要。今天市场的新闻风格终于改变了,大家都在讨论纳指股票估值太高。而终于有一些分析师开始认为美股高点已经过去,这不是一次简单的修正,而可能是一个较长的下跌趋势了。\nNasdaq Tumbles to 8th-Biggest Loss Ever; Dow Industrials Gain\nNew York, April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled to its eighth-biggest loss ever as investors unloaded Qualcomm Inc., JDS Uniphase Corp. and other telecommunications and computer-related stocks whose declines have driven down the index 17 percent in a month.\nNasdaq stocks trade for an average 208 times recent earnings, while Dow stocks trade for 26 times profit. Analysts polled by First Call project average first-quarter profit growth for companies in the S&P 500 of 18.8 percent.\n`Corrective Trend'\nMerrill Lynch & Co.'s chief market analyst, Richard McCabe, said in a report that the computer-related shares that dominate the Nasdaq have further to slide even after the index dropped three out of the four weeks since setting its last record. The Nasdaq, which fell as much as 13.6 percent Tuesday before rebounding, has dropped 17 percent from its high March 10.\n``The technology sector has begun an important corrective trend,'' McCabe wrote. The month-long decline ``is not a brief, random event, but the beginning of a longer-lasting change.'' He advised buying energy, financial and consumer-cyclical shares.\n我们可以看到,到这一天,市场情绪完全转变了。摩托罗拉宣布二季度盈利可能会低于之前预估,股市与经济的相互影响开始出现。这个时候,是空头重新入场或者加大仓位的绝好时机,如果是之前采取了对冲结构,那么现在就是变为净空头的有利时机。\n 4月11日周二。纳指下跌3.2%。\n 4月12日周三,纳指下跌7.1%。\n 4月13日周四,开盘纳指一度反弹3.9%,但最终下跌2.5%,这个跌幅几乎是在收盘前45分钟完成的,指数点位3676.78。\n这天的经历在2018年2月初的美股波动中我是深有体会。美股的情绪崩塌,往往在收盘前30分钟会达到高潮。\n 4月14日周五,纳指下跌9.7%,股指收于3321.29,回想一个月之前5133的高点,恍若隔世。市场开始为暴跌寻找理由,其中包括股票杠杆融资过多。而CPI数据则创下过去五年的最高增速,这意味着5月16日美联储还可能继续加息。\n这是典型的美股崩盘第二波。在1929年,1987年和2008年都出现过,我相信在未来也会出现。这里面实际上是市场情绪变化的痕迹,而市场最终用买卖行为诠释了主流偏见的变化。\n 4月17日周一,纳指反弹6.6%,在技术上形成了一个标准的牛市孕入,考虑到股票已经下跌39%,分析师纷纷呼吁买入股票,因为股票已经足够便宜。高盛的Cohen继续坚持她关于标普年度目标的判断。实际上,故事已经结束,这个时候,空头应该退出仓位,或者小范围参与做多反弹。\n接下来,纳指就进入了一个长达7个月的区间震荡,股指在3000和4280之间来回震荡,上下杀人。直到2000年底,纳指跌破3000,开始下一轮快速下跌过程。\n42019年的纳指\n\n首先、我们应该很难看到2000年的纳指短时间快速崩盘。因为美股短期的涨幅是温和的,特别是2018年9月和2019年5月,股指有过两次较大规模调整。\n其次、2000年美股崩盘的一个主要催化剂是微软。这一点,2019年有很多可以想象的冲击,包括苹果、脸书、亚马逊都有可能成为市场冲击的主要原因。在当前盈利增长缓慢,经济周期先行指数在零附近的情况下,在地缘政治冲突密布的背景下,我们并不知道是否会有某个冲击事件引发连锁反应。\n第三、连锁反应启动后,不需要担心后续的燃料。最主要的燃料其实就是股票多头本身。美股长达数年的上涨行情,有了大量的盈利盘,而这些盈利盘很多是通过ETF等指数基金实现的。而这些年的低利率,导致各种显性和隐形的股票杠杆很高,一旦市场快速下跌,引发杠杆盘追加保证金或者强行平仓,市场具备深跌的可能性。\n第四、金融脆弱性主要在于中小企业高杠杆融资。这点罗素小盘股指数已经指明了市场方向。所以,这一轮美股下跌,领跌的很可能是中小盘股指,而不是传统的纳指或者标普。2018年9月份的市场动荡中,罗素2000下跌幅度最深,达到了27.28%。股票价格与高杠杆融资的确存在一种正反馈机制,但是能否启动这种正反馈,需要我们密切跟踪高杠杆融资的违约情况。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":992226797,"gmtCreate":1565360521719,"gmtModify":1704712458969,"author":{"id":"3447144317190110","authorId":"3447144317190110","name":"ungg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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教你做人,这种庄股从来是利好利空不分的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/82622","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":78403,"gmtCreate":1501174744966,"gmtModify":1704879310322,"author":{"id":"3447144317190110","authorId":"3447144317190110","name":"ungg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 好像真的是见证崩盘了","listText":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 好像真的是见证崩盘了","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 好像真的是见证崩盘了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/78403","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":73338,"gmtCreate":1499702179207,"gmtModify":1704878682950,"author":{"id":"3447144317190110","authorId":"3447144317190110","name":"ungg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"盘点一下利空","htmlText":"$微博(WB)$ 1市盈率过高2会计减持3新浪配股4禁娱乐号5禁视频(说禁简单化了,理解意思就行),再加上上面一天跳涨20%的缺口,还是偏空吧。","listText":"$微博(WB)$ 1市盈率过高2会计减持3新浪配股4禁娱乐号5禁视频(说禁简单化了,理解意思就行),再加上上面一天跳涨20%的缺口,还是偏空吧。","text":"$微博(WB)$ 1市盈率过高2会计减持3新浪配股4禁娱乐号5禁视频(说禁简单化了,理解意思就行),再加上上面一天跳涨20%的缺口,还是偏空吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/73338","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166562,"gmtCreate":1520953383870,"gmtModify":1704890218993,"author":{"id":"3447144317190110","authorId":"3447144317190110","name":"ungg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$AMD(AMD)$ 又跌下来了,这是美国电梯版的红海行动吧","listText":"$AMD(AMD)$ 又跌下来了,这是美国电梯版的红海行动吧","text":"$AMD(AMD)$ 又跌下来了,这是美国电梯版的红海行动吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166562","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":992422219,"gmtCreate":1565622822931,"gmtModify":1704712712973,"author":{"id":"3447144317190110","authorId":"3447144317190110","name":"ungg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这是我在老虎看到最有意思的一篇,事实,以及偏向不可知论的分析。","listText":"这是我在老虎看到最有意思的一篇,事实,以及偏向不可知论的分析。","text":"这是我在老虎看到最有意思的一篇,事实,以及偏向不可知论的分析。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/992422219","repostId":"1165923562","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1165923562","pubTimestamp":1565572645,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165923562?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2019-08-12 09:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股2000年崩盘启示录","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165923562","media":" 全球宏观投机","summary":"2019年美股更像哪一年?","content":"<p><span>2019年美股更像哪一年?</span></p>\n<p><span>首先,并不像1929年,也不像2008年。虽然美国高息公司债一直是市场老手琢磨的重点,但是现在的确还没有证据表明2019年高息债市场已经类似2006年的次贷市场。1929年是疯狂的杠杆做多股票(很类似2015年的中国股市),现在美股的大环境已经跟1929年完全无法比拟,尤其是央行和政府在应对市场危机方面。</span></p>\n<p><span>2019年的美股会是一个全新的格局,跟历史上每一次大型熊市的起点可能都不相同。因为这是一个全新的低利率时代、政府对股市的关注前所未有、积累了丰富的应对市场内部崩盘的经验(这是1987年的教训),日本央行开创的QQE包括了直接购买股票ETF的先例。所以,我们要在这种新的历史条件下探讨市场未来崩盘的路径。</span></p>\n<p><span>不过正如利佛摩尔所说,人性如山岳一般古老,懒惰、恐惧、贪婪和幻想是人性的基本部分,这决定了任何市场都有繁荣-萧条周期,而金融监管总是走在市场崩盘后面。这决定了未来一段时间,美股会有大型波动(超过30%)。</span></p>\n<p><span>我这次复盘2000年技术泡沫,原因如下:</span></p>\n<p><span>这是一次大型股票衰退,从波峰到波谷,纳斯达克综合指数一共有72%跌幅。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>这次崩盘的直接触发因素是公司在信息技术方面的投资超过需求,市场过度投资了技术类股票的前景。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>监管上的缺陷主要包括大量公司财务造假,这是繁荣时期和监管放松阶段的必然产物。</span></p>\n<p><span>这些特征与我设想的美股下一次崩盘有类似之处。这也是美股上个世纪以来几次主要大型衰退中我唯一还没有复盘的一个,这次算是补充家庭作业。</span></p>\n<p>2<span>周期、美股、美元和加息</span></p>\n<p><span>中文世界里面充斥了各种关于美股的不真实信息,譬如加息刺破泡沫,加息提振美元之类。真实的情况是,1980年代以来的几次美股下跌(超过20%)与加息周期的关系并不明朗,甚至几乎都是加息周期结束后才达到股票顶点。而美元与美联储加息周期更是毫无关系。</span></p>\n<p><span>图 1980年代以来的美股、美元与加息</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91fbd5934bb90128eca97406e6281810\"></p>\n<p><span>本轮美联储从7月30日开始进入降息周期,这倒是提醒我们,美股大跌的时间可能临近了,如果我们相信历史数据的话。上图红框是美国加息周期,绿线是标普,紫红线是美元指数。</span></p>\n<p><span>其中,与2000年美股头部加息相关的起始日期是1999年6月15日到2000年5月12日。事后我们知道,美股头部出现在2000年3月(以纳指算)。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>决定货币政策、资产价格和投资者情绪最深层的力量是经济周期。</b></span><span>那么,2000年股市头部对应的经济周期如何呢?</span></p>\n<p><span>图 互联网泡沫时代的经济周期</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507bc6f3c8b1ef5f86af8fb6e31b4f53\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:ECRI</span></p>\n<p><span>在我之前公开发表的文章中,我提示了经济周期分析的技巧。美国经济的高点出现在1999年7月,但此时股票开始最后的大涨,经济在2000年5月出现较为明显的走弱,而此时股票头部已现。但是在当时,除非是极高明的交易者,是不敢确认说股票高点已经出现。</span></p>\n<p><span>简单看,这一轮经济周期与股指的关系依然非常经典。经济周期先行指数领先或者同步于股票头部。这一次,经济周期顶点领先股票顶点9个月,在经济周期先行指数接近同比为负时股票确认头部。</span></p>\n<p><span>图 2000年美股头部的技术特征</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d88b93e2d425f25c461a15043b32558b\"></p>\n<p><span>我们看到,标普依然是一个标准的圆形顶,而纳指则表现出更大的波动性。同样,我们可以从跌幅看,纳指的跌幅远大于标普,这也给我们启发:下一次做空美股的主攻方向。一般美股头部的重要经验是,领涨板块出现回落。我们一会儿分析2019年的图形。</span></p>\n<p>3<span>股市头部总是悄无声息</span></p>\n<p><span>接下来,我们回到历史现场,逐日过一遍当时的市场新闻。与我公开发表的1929年和1987年复盘一样,依然是采用当时的实时新闻加上我自己的思考。新闻来源全部是彭博。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>2000年3月10日。股票指数新高。因为交易过于活跃,以至于交易堵塞了一分多钟,指数停止更新了40分钟,交易量持续新高。前一天纳指超越5000,这是一个历史性的时刻,要注意整数关口的心理含义。此时,华尔街讨论的是,何时如何超越6000。我直接引用当时的一个报导。另外,3月10日是周五。这一天,纳指最高点是5133。一切似乎都非常完美。市场虽然不时有一些下挫,但是很快就会回到上涨趋势。</span></p>\n<p><span>Investors Question What Group Will Lead Nasdaq Higher, WSJ Says</span></p>\n<p><span>New York, March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Nasdaq Composite's surge to 5000 has resembled a race with one group of technology stocks passing the baton to another, and analysts and investors are questioning what group will lead it to 6000, the Wall Street Journal reported in its ``Heard on the Street'' column. Microsoft Corp. and Dell Computer Corp. helped push the Nasdaq to 4000, and then upstarts such as PMC-Sierra Inc. and Juniper Networks Inc. helped it reach 5000. Tom Marsico, head of Marsico Capital Management, expects Entrust Technologies Inc. and Flextronics International Ltd. to help propel the Nasdaq to a new high, while Ruth Porat of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter said she expects the Internet stocks will continue to lead, the paper said.</span></p>\n<p><span>The Nasdaq Composite Index closed above 5000 for the first time in its 29-year history yesterday.</span></p>\n<p><span>一个愉快的周末,投资者继续享受计算机、互联网和生物科技等新经济股票带来的巨大收益。虽然不少市场老手担忧股价上升过快(表现的结果是估值过高),但是并没有明显的头部特征,即便有,也有可能是市场自发的一个技术调整。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>2000年3月13日周一。日本经济数据显示将连续第二个季度陷入收缩。周日巴菲特表示美国股市投资者乐观过度,股市将会有修正,当天美国股指期货在亚盘和欧盘时间下跌,领跌的是戴尔和亚马逊,市场担心日本是否还有足够的IT需求。美股开盘大跌,纳指最低下跌超过4%,收盘下跌1.5%。市场讨论较多的是信息技术类股票的盈利是否能支持股票目前的涨幅。虽然是糟糕的一天,但是没有人能看到美股高点已过。当天股指剧烈波动,高点达到5027,收盘图形是高上影线的小实体,这说明多头一度试图把握优势,但是收盘时不得不退回到4907,但相比开盘,股指收涨。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月14日周二。知名股票分析师Dorfman分析了当时的市场深度,标普、道指和纳指出现了历史上少见的显著分离,除了纳指继续大涨外,标普和道指都下跌。这种市场背离是一个非常典型的股票头部标志,意味着股指的新高是由少数股票贡献的,多数股票的买盘已经力度不足。仔细分析下表美国最大市值20家公司的涨跌,Dorfman发现9只上涨11只下降。20只股票集中在计算机、通信和制药行业。从涨跌比例上看不出特别的分离,但是如果看涨跌幅和市盈率,那我们很容易就发现市场的深度很薄,这意味着一旦市场转向,下跌的力度很大。</span></p>\n<p><span>当日早盘大涨,但收盘大跌4.1%。热门股甲骨文一季度盈利超过市场预期,英特尔宣布收购欧洲一家技术公司,分析师对技术股普遍乐观,将一季度盈利增长上调到18.3%,之前是18%。当天虽然股票大跌,但刚上市的三只互联网股票中有两只翻倍。</span></p>\n<p><span>周二的图形非常难看。预示着调整没有结束。但公司盈利的数据会麻痹很多人。既然甲骨文和英特尔都保持了这么好的盈利数据,市场的高价也许是合理的。这个时候,你是相信公司盈利数据(宏观因子之一)还是图形呢(另外一个宏观因子)?所以,不要嘲笑在这天逢低买入美股的人。</span></p>\n<p><span>PIMCO公司的Hodge继续警告美股风险,但是他的用词是修正,虽然他也说了,泡沫不会慢慢破灭的。在市场狂热气氛中,很多老手都知道状况不可持续,但是谁也不敢说这就是泡沫的头部。从3月10日到24日的图形见下。</span></p>\n<p><span>图 头部总是在不经意间到来</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e943b7e95946123526a3dee4c4d4d31e\"></p>\n<p><span>我也比较了美国如今市值最大20家公司过去三个月的相对表现,发现目前美股的市场深度合理,市值最大20家公司12家上涨,8家下跌,从行业分布、涨跌幅、市盈率看,当前美股相对健康。</span></p>\n<p><span>表 2000年美股深度</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7268c157137b02879b1b30fe252cd2f\"></p>\n<p><span>表 美股市场深度2019</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c31505467dc63be698387abcf595bf\"></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月15日周三。PPI数据显示美国没有通胀压力,给股票提供了宏观支撑。今天也是开盘上涨,收盘下跌。纳指距离高点10%,符合一般所讲的“技术调整”范畴。此时很多投资者虽然认为技术股需要继续调整,但其他股票被低估,股票总体依然有机会。引用当时一个基金经理的说法:</span></p>\n<p><span>Nasdaq Falls, Down 10% From Record; Dow Rallies for Second Day</span></p>\n<p><span>``The Nasdaq stocks are still in a period of uncertainty with many needing to correct,'' said Henry Cavanna, a money manager with J.P. Morgan & Co. which oversees $320 million.</span></p>\n<p><span>Many investors, including Cavanna, are instead buying financial, drug and industrial companies, ``which are showing signs of life,'' he said.</span><br></p>\n<p><span>市场在关注雅虎收购eBay的传闻。可见,市场在头部区域依然不乏各种美好的想象。换了我们,会在当时买入eBay吗?这是每一个交易员都应该问自己的问题。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月16日周四。在微软和高通带领下,纳指强势反弹,一根长长的下影线。多头会认为,调整可能结束了。耐克利润增长17%,略超预期,股价大涨。看起来股票可能又要回到上涨趋势。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月17日周五,纳指上涨1.7%。很多大型基金经理继续看涨技术股,认为过去一周的调整提供了很好的买点。</span></p>\n<p><span>Nasdaq Gains a 2nd Day; Dow Falls, Finishes Best Week Since '84</span></p>\n<p><span>Veritas Software Corp. and Qualcomm Inc. were among the big gainers in the Nasdaq, which rose 80.74, or 1.7 percent, to 4798.13 on expectations money will continue flowing into mutual funds that buy computer-related and telecommunications stocks.</span></p>\n<p><span>``A lot of these stocks, such as JDS Uniphase, are down for the week and are buying opportunities,'' said Gil Knight, a portfolio manager with Allied Investment Advisors Inc. in Baltimore, which oversees $10 billion. ``We are about to see another run on technology as that is still where the growth is.''</span></p>\n<p><span>这几天还有一个现象就是技术股与其他股票的跷跷板效应。当纳指下跌时,道指和标普上涨,而纳指上涨时,后者下跌。</span></p>\n<p><span>这一天共有24家美国公司发布了盈利预警。公司盈利始终是市场的心病,主要是因为股价上涨过快,大家都担心盈利的增速能否支撑股价。</span></p>\n<p><span>这是头部出现后的第二个周末,股票经历了动荡的一周,但是考虑到之前类似的接近10%调整并不少见,加上周四和周五股票已经收回部分跌幅,市场的心态依然是良好的。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月20日周一。雷曼发布了创纪录的盈利数据,券商和银行股早盘大涨。但指数收盘下跌1.8%。今天市场传闻联储下次加息幅度将是50个基点,而不是以往的25。但也有分析师从历史数据分析,纳指在过去4次加息中,都是上涨,认为这个担心是多余的。</span></p>\n<p><span>这里我们会看到市场情绪的快速切换。宏观事件对股票的冲击持续时间往往都有限,甚至包括海湾战争之类的冲击,影响都不会特别长。我就是我提出投机市场“近视眼模型”的例证之一。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月21日周二。在英特尔、美光、美国在线领涨下,美股上涨1.6%。一家管理70亿美元的基金说,投资者持续追加资金进入技术股,这是他们必须拥有的股票。中国的段子手可能将来会引用这段话嘲笑这些基金经理,但这种嘲笑没有任何意义。因为只要设想一下,换了你,你会怎么做?今天的新闻是过去三天,一共有170亿美元涌入了股票基金,其中54亿美元进入了信息科技和互联网股票。加息担忧似乎消退了,宴会继续。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月22日周三。联邦政府可能结束对微软的反垄断调查,微软大涨。彭博新闻社的评论是,泡沫论无法阻止激进投资者。过去这些年,大量持有科技股的基金经理到处宣言投资科技股的收益,以及,科技股的确在改变我们的生活。人人都要做长期持股的有远见的投资者。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月23日周四。纳指大涨2.7%。临近季度末,过去几年流行的季末效应再度在市场传闻,即基金喜欢在季末公布持股前买入热门股票,以此讨好投资者。微软和解的信息继续鼓励市场,而资金依然在加速流入股市。</span></p>\n<p><span>这就是我为什么从来不看股市资金流动这个指标,因为这个指标,可以理解成为是笨蛋指标。在所有投机市场中,聪明钱寻找的都是先行指标。</span></p>\n<p><span>U.S. Stocks Extend Gains as Microsoft Rises; Cisco Shares Gain</span></p>\n<p><span>Some gains were spurred by money managers' attempting to ``window dress'' their portfolios by buying the recent big gainers before investors scrutinize their performance at the quarter's end.</span></p>\n<p><span>``The momentum has returned,'' said Joe DeMarco, head of stock trading for HSBC Asset Management Americas Inc. ``It's the end of the quarter, and window dressing is probably a part of the move.''</span></p>\n<p><span>Microsoft gained 2 5/8 to 114 1/2. Lawyers for the company and Justice Department were heading to Chicago for a mediation session with a federal judge. The government's antitrust chief was expected to attend.</span></p>\n<p><span>An estimated $21.9 billion flowed into all equity funds in the five days ending Wednesday, compared with $4.4 billion during the prior week, according to Carl Wittnebert, director of research at TrimTabs.com.</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月24日周五。连续几天上涨后,市场情绪明显高涨。分析师看好技术股盈利,同时认为技术股应该享有溢价。纳指创下了过去9年最好的一季度表现。新高似乎指日可待。但是这天,股票收了一个十字星,最高点5079,距离历史高点一步之遥。我们现在来看这些基金经理的话,是不是依然觉得充满道理和逻辑呢?分析师已经将一季度技术股的盈利增长调整到22%。</span></p>\n<p><span>Profit Expectations Signal Nasdaq Gains: U.S. Stocks Outlook</span></p>\n<p><span>New York, March 24 (Bloomberg) -- The Nasdaq Composite Index, headed for its best first-quarter performance in nine years, may rally further, some investors and analysts say.</span></p>\n<p><span>Computer-related and telecommunications companies, which make up 72 percent of the index, are expected to post faster profit growth this quarter than companies in other industries. A higher percentage of Nasdaq stocks have advanced this quarter than in all of 1999.</span></p>\n<p><span>And investors don't seem to mind paying the premium Nasdaq shares command, compared with stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.</span></p>\n<p><span>``Tech is headed higher -- investors are discriminating>In the past two weeks, Orlando bought shares of Oracle Corp., JDS Uniphase Corp. and Flextronics International Ltd., a maker of circuit boards and cell phones that has beaten analysts' earnings estimates for four of five quarters.</span></p>\n<p><span>Faster Profit Growth</span></p>\n<p><span>Analysts surveyed by First Call/Thomson financial expect 22 percent first-quarter profit growth from the telecommunications and computer-related companies in the S&P 500, including Nasdaq stocks such as Microsoft Corp., Dell Computer Corp. and Cisco Systems Inc. That's up from 14.6 percent last quarter and more than the 18.3 percent average for the entire index.</span><br></p>\n<p><span>这周投资者经历了狂野的一周,但最终股市继续上涨,唯一的遗憾可能就是周五没能一举新高。但对于相信“逢低买入”的投资者而言,这又是他们愚蠢信条胜利的一周。下周股市会继续新高,不是吗?</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月27日周一。高盛的Abby Cohen将股票配置比例从70%下调到65%,将现金比例从0增加到5%。她是著名的股票多头,这是从1999年1月份以来,她第一次下调股票比例。但她同时看好标普,将标普的年度目标价格上调3.3%至1575。而该年结束时,标普实际点位是1320。如果读过《对冲基金风云录》的读者,大概已经知道Cohen就是其中一个角色的原型了吧。当天股票下跌0.1%,收盘在4958.56。</span></p>\n<p><span>我们来看看当时一家2.4亿美元规模投资公司的说法。</span></p>\n<p><span>U.S. Stocks Fall After Goldman's Cohen Reduces Equity Weighting</span></p>\n<p><span>Cohen, one of Wall Street's most bullish strategists, reduced the stock weighting in her model portfolio to 65 percent from 70 percent and raised the cash allocation to 5 percent from zero.</span></p>\n<p><span>``When she speaks, markets move, and rightfully so,'' said Richard Sichel, chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., which oversees $240 million. ``She has a lot of credibility, and she's earned it.''</span></p>\n<p><span>Cohen doesn't think the S&P 500 is overvalued, though it probably won't rise more than 10 percent this year, according to a summary of her comments distributed to clients this morning.</span></p>\n<p><span>Cohen last week raised her year-end target on the S&P 500 3.3 percent to 1575 from 1525.</span></p>\n<p><span>我仔细看了Cohen的报告,她实际上对美股还是相当乐观的,她更多是做了一个战术配置的调整,将股票少量从技术股转移到传统股票。而同一天格林斯潘的证词缓解了加息忧虑,因为他认为油价对通胀的影响不足为虑。这一天美国30年期国债收益率5.98%,两年期6.62%,债券收益率倒挂。一些机构认为美联储会在未来几个月将联邦基准利率上调至6.5%。市场还是对通胀存在担忧,当时的通胀水平低于联储政策目标2%,主要是从1999年8月开始通胀有上行趋势。</span></p>\n<p><span>图 2000年美股崩盘时的通胀特征</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a51832543dd6aa19dd5cd7e6956a660c\"></p>\n<p><span>当天领跌的是微软,因为与司法部的和解出现波折。</span><br></p>\n<p><span>我总在想,如果利佛摩尔在世,这一天他会怎么操作?</span></p>\n<p><span>真正在市场一线的人,每天面对的都是这些相互矛盾的信息,利好利空几乎是永远相伴而生。从来没有一个决策是容易的。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月28日周二。市场还在消化Cohen的报告。三大指数全部下跌,纳指下跌2.5%。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月29周三。欧盘时间美股跟随下跌,主要是计算机类股票。摩根斯坦利的Canelo提示客户买入股票。以下是他的理由。</span></p>\n<p><span>Morgan Stanley's Canelo Raises Stock Allocation to 75% From 70%</span></p>\n<p><span>New York, March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. investment strategist Peter Canelo said clients should raise the percentage of assets invested in stocks to 75 percent from 70 percent by adding to non-U.S. holdings.</span></p>\n<p><span>``There are so many reasons to buy stocks,'' said Canelo. ``The inflation scare is over, unit labor costs have collapsed, the U.S. dollar is strong, earnings have been raised 15 percent and productivity is booming. I look at all this stuff and think this is no time to cut back.''</span></p>\n<p><span>Canelo said he expected the Standard & Poor's 500 Index could reach 1695 by the end of the year.</span></p>\n<p><span>当天纳指下跌3.9%,买盘分析散户依然在活跃买入技术类股票。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月30日周四。纳指继续下跌4%。高通、思科和英特尔大跌。距离前高再次达到10%。市场的宏观因子很清晰:技术股盈利增长依然不错,但是价格上涨过快;Buy Dips的成功策略引发的投资者惯性买入。我们看一个管理40亿美元组合基金经理的说法。</span></p>\n<p><span>U.S. Stocks Fall as Investors Flee Computer, Telecom Shares</span></p>\n<p><span>Buying The Dips</span></p>\n<p><span>Some investors saw the Nasdaq's drop as an opportunity to buy shares whose prices have fallen this week.</span></p>\n<p><span>``It's a fast-money crowd of people who trade on very minor news,'' said Rich Barnett, portfolio manager at City National Investments in Beverly Hills, California which oversees $4 billion. ``We're looking at this as a buying opportunity.''</span></p>\n<p><span>Barnett was buying shares in Conexant Systems Inc., down 27 percent this month, and PanAmSat Corp., which dropped 25 percent yesterday.</span></p>\n<p><span>从Barnett买入的股票看,他过去的成功策略最终会让他非常受伤。这也提示我们,机构投资者的行为并不一定就是合理的。研究机构投资者行为,是一种无效率的方法。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>3月31日周五,纳指反弹2.6%到4572.89。这一周随着股票下跌,债券收益率下行,这是一直存在的跷跷板效应。微软和英特尔盈利喜人。</span></p>\n<p><span>应该说,这一天的行情是比较有迷惑性的。第一,技术支撑位,上次在这里股票得到支撑。第二、技术股领头羊盈利不错,调整买入的力量依然存在,市场会进入到威克夫头部震荡还是下行呢?如果我在当时,严格的说我看不出方向。</span></p>\n<p><span>这一周纳指下跌7.9%,是1月28日以来最大周跌幅。事后看,这一周是多头减仓,空头建仓的最好时机。但是到底如何操作,取决于你之前的状态是什么。如果你一直持有多头,盈利丰富,你很可能把它视为一个正常的技术调整,甚至你会逢低买入;如果你一直在等待做空美股的机会,那么,这一周会是利佛摩尔入场的时机。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月3日纳指暴跌7.6%。盘中传出微软与司法部和解失败,大跌14.5%。技术上破坏了之前头部区间交易的假设。盘后又有一些消息传出,微软股价回升。基金经理觉得这是难得的买入机会,因为即便微软被拆分,拆分后的价值加总依然会大于当前的市值。事后看,这是多么明显的思维偏差,因为这个基金持有了100万股微软股票,市值约9200万美元。</span></p>\n<p><span>Microsoft Gains Following Antitrust Ruling: After-Hours Trading</span></p>\n<p><span>New York, April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Microsoft Corp. shares gained in extended trading after U.S. District Court Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson ruled the world's No. 1 software maker had violated antitrust law.</span></p>\n<p><span>Microsoft rose to 92 13/16 from its 4 p.m. closing price of 90 7/8. Earlier it traded at 92 5/32 in after-hours trading before it was halted for 50 minutes.</span></p>\n<p><span>``It's a buying opportunity,'' said Robert Bissell, president of Wells Capital Management in Los Angeles, which owned 1 million Microsoft shares as of Dec. 31. ``Even if the government broke it up, it's worth more in pieces than the whole.''</span></p>\n<p><span>The company struck exclusive agreements and rolled its browser into its Windows computer operating system illegally, the judge ruled. The ruling precedes hearings to determine penalties that could include breaking up the company. The ruling may also be cited in suits against Microsoft.</span></p>\n<p><span>During the day Microsoft fell 15 3/8 to 90 7/8. ``No one likes legal action,'' Bissell said. ``It presents uncertainty, which investors hate.''</span></p>\n<p><span>读者朋友请注意,我引用这些同行的话,无半点讽刺他们的意思。我其实一直是在想,如果我当时有美股仓位,我会怎么做?我引用这些说法,是想复原当时场景下,我自己构建和分析宏观因子的过程。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月4日,2000年股灾中最狂野的一天。纳指在暴跌13.6%以后收复失地,最后只下跌了1.77%。这是典型的技术破位后的大跌。这天,有些在线券商提高了保证金比例,这也许触发了一些零售卖单。成交量创下历史新高。如果是空头,在暴跌13.6%后同时市场迅速收回时应该果断平掉头寸,至少是一大半。从几次美股大跌情况看,持续的大跌往往会接连发生,所以,当股指发生大幅下跌后,交易者一定要做一个判断,真正的恐慌到底是什么?7%日跌幅就是恐慌极限吗?还是10%以上?</span></p>\n<p><span>买入力量是什么呢?一是空头平仓,二是逢低买入的巨大力量。当天收盘后彭博做了一个专访,采访了很多基金经理,不少人都认为美国经济表现良好,投资者是趁股票大跌进行仓位调整,也有人认为,美股大跌后,联储会停止加息,而这会推升美股。</span></p>\n<p><span>因为当天股指反弹回去,技术派会认为市场底部已经探明,同时市场在底部也显示了不错的流动性,这是多头的理由。</span></p>\n<p><span>到今天,高点到底部的幅度已经是29%,而这一切,就是在短短几个交易日完成的。我们知道,做空美股从来都是一个极难的事情,时机把握非常难,仓位管理非常难,一旦行情启动,如果不能大胆加仓,很难赚到真正大钱。</span></p>\n<p><span>这一天相信对很多人而言,都是终生难忘的一天。直到今天,依然很多人认为美股只是一个正常的技术调整。这里引用的都是一些管理数亿美元基金经理的 盘后采访。</span></p>\n<p><span>Nasdaq Plummets, Rebounds: Investors Comment on a Wild Day</span></p>\n<p><span>New York, April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Investors comment on a wild day in the U.S. stock market, when the Nasdaq Composite Index plunged as much as 13.6 percent only to rebound, ending down 1.77 percent.</span></p>\n<p><span>Richard Strong, chairman of Strong Capital Management Inc. in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, which manages more than $40 billion in mutual funds and other assets:</span><br></p>\n<p><b><span>``The markets were ahead of themselves. But the economy is no different today from where it was 90 days ago or 180 days ago. In all the years I've been in the business (since 1967) the U.S. economy and the world economy are the best they've ever been.''</span></b></p>\n<p><span>读者听到这些话是不是会觉得特别熟悉?每一次股票大跌后,都有人会找经济上的理由。美股每一次崩盘时,经济状况到底如何?这个答案取决于你会不会分析经济数据。对于真正掌握了经济分析精髓的交易者,看的数据完全不同于主流大众的看法。如果在这个时候,还在寻求所谓经济基本面,公司业绩良好来为股票大跌辩护,显然没有理解市场真正运行的逻辑。</span></p>\n<p><span>Steve Saldanha, vice president and director of global asset allocation at CT Investment Management Inc. in Toronto:</span></p>\n<p><span>``We expect this market to resume its move upward in a more stable fashion, centered on well-established large-cap stocks or some of the truly well-managed smaller tech and bio-tech companies with good business plans.''</span></p>\n<p><span>Myles Gillespie, president of Fleet Specialists LLC:</span></p>\n<p><span>``I think this is purely margins and redemptions. The quality stocks will bounce back but the `air' ones won't. This is a real valuation correction for stocks.''</span></p>\n<p><span>Peter Mancuso, specialist for Buttonwood Specialists LLC, which trades CAN Surety Corp., Tasty Baking Co., Ashland Inc., and Universal Foods Corp.:</span></p>\n<p><span>``Things here today are very stable. We've been through this kind of thing before. The market here is groping for a bottom. It's a time of taking stocks out of weak hands and putting them in strong hands. Days like today show that there's real liquidity on this floor.''</span></p>\n<p><span>股票大跌后,也有很多投资者喜欢从轮动的角度去解释市场。上面这些投资者要么以老手自居,认为这种程度的跌幅以前也经历过,正好是市场换手机会;要么就是不愿意放弃技术股偏见,找到各种理由为继续持有技术股辩护。</span></p>\n<p><span>阅读上面这些记录,真是非常感慨。每个交易者都有自己的偏见,当市场发生巨大的范式转换的时候,这种过时的偏见会让一个交易者失去判断能力。这反过来说明,交易体系中,风险控制是何等重要。风险控制的根本是承认我们自己会犯错。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月5日市场剧烈波动,多空反复角力。从技术上讲,这是一个糟糕的信号。说明多头没能一举延续昨天的势头,推高股市。纳指反复7次在上涨和下跌中来回。虽然收盘略高于昨天收盘,但是市场显然还在寻找方向。对于了解市场的人而言,美股的宏观因子非常清晰。一方面是认为技术股的季报会非常好,完全可以支撑当前的股价,而另一方则认为估值已经太高。应该说,两方都有各自的道理,可惜市场只有一面,这个时候,真是该放下自我偏见,认真倾听市场声音的时候了。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月6日周四。纳指反弹2.4%。甲骨文领涨,生物技术公司PE宣布已经解码了99%人类基因组密码。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月7日周五,纳指大幅反弹4.2%。市场依然预期技术股业绩大涨,分析师一致预期一季度EPS增长26%。从技术上,这是一个重要的价位。市场接近4500,正是之前的支撑位,现在变阻力位。如果从下跌底部算起,现在反弹已经超过了20%。可以设想,如果空头当时没有及时平仓或者降低仓位,这种凶猛的反弹也是让人非常难受的。</span></p>\n<p><span>这是2000年科技股泡沫最关键的一周。这一周基本宣布了科技股牛市结束。然而,在当时,相信只有少数人可以做这个判断。从资金讲,暴跌30%已经让一些杠杆资金爆仓,追缴保证金的压力使得最激进的多头已经非常受伤,而从市场心理讲,宏观因子的博弈开始转向估值派,其实没有什么估值,核心就是价格上涨太快了。但不论怎么说,市场毕竟反弹了,所以下周一的行情尤其重要。如果下周一行情不对,那将是多头最明确的出场信号了。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月10日周一,股指大跌5.8%。通过复盘四次美股头部,我发现一个现象,那就是周五和周一的行情特别重要。今天市场的新闻风格终于改变了,大家都在讨论纳指股票估值太高。而终于有一些分析师开始认为美股高点已经过去,这不是一次简单的修正,而可能是一个较长的下跌趋势了。</span></p>\n<p><span>Nasdaq Tumbles to 8th-Biggest Loss Ever; Dow Industrials Gain</span></p>\n<p><span>New York, April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled to its eighth-biggest loss ever as investors unloaded Qualcomm Inc., JDS Uniphase Corp. and other telecommunications and computer-related stocks whose declines have driven down the index 17 percent in a month.</span></p>\n<p><span>Nasdaq stocks trade for an average 208 times recent earnings, while Dow stocks trade for 26 times profit. Analysts polled by First Call project average first-quarter profit growth for companies in the S&P 500 of 18.8 percent.</span></p>\n<p><span>`Corrective Trend'</span></p>\n<p><span>Merrill Lynch & Co.'s chief market analyst, Richard McCabe, said in a report that the computer-related shares that dominate the Nasdaq have further to slide even after the index dropped three out of the four weeks since setting its last record. The Nasdaq, which fell as much as 13.6 percent Tuesday before rebounding, has dropped 17 percent from its high March 10.</span></p>\n<p><span>``The technology sector has begun an important corrective trend,'' McCabe wrote. The month-long decline ``is not a brief, random event, but the beginning of a longer-lasting change.'' He advised buying energy, financial and consumer-cyclical shares.</span></p>\n<p><span>我们可以看到,到这一天,市场情绪完全转变了。摩托罗拉宣布二季度盈利可能会低于之前预估,股市与经济的相互影响开始出现。这个时候,是空头重新入场或者加大仓位的绝好时机,如果是之前采取了对冲结构,那么现在就是变为净空头的有利时机。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月11日周二。纳指下跌3.2%。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月12日周三,纳指下跌7.1%。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月13日周四,开盘纳指一度反弹3.9%,但最终下跌2.5%,这个跌幅几乎是在收盘前45分钟完成的,指数点位3676.78。</span></p>\n<p><span>这天的经历在2018年2月初的美股波动中我是深有体会。美股的情绪崩塌,往往在收盘前30分钟会达到高潮。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月14日周五,纳指下跌9.7%,股指收于3321.29,回想一个月之前5133的高点,恍若隔世。市场开始为暴跌寻找理由,其中包括股票杠杆融资过多。而CPI数据则创下过去五年的最高增速,这意味着5月16日美联储还可能继续加息。</span></p>\n<p><span>这是典型的美股崩盘第二波。在1929年,1987年和2008年都出现过,我相信在未来也会出现。这里面实际上是市场情绪变化的痕迹,而市场最终用买卖行为诠释了主流偏见的变化。</span></p>\n<p><b><span> </span></b><span>4月17日周一,纳指反弹6.6%,在技术上形成了一个标准的牛市孕入,考虑到股票已经下跌39%,分析师纷纷呼吁买入股票,因为股票已经足够便宜。高盛的Cohen继续坚持她关于标普年度目标的判断。实际上,故事已经结束,这个时候,空头应该退出仓位,或者小范围参与做多反弹。</span></p>\n<p><span>接下来,纳指就进入了一个长达7个月的区间震荡,股指在3000和4280之间来回震荡,上下杀人。直到2000年底,纳指跌破3000,开始下一轮快速下跌过程。</span></p>\n<p>4<span>2019年的纳指</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e412a097ea4ae58c60694951736d9887\"></p>\n<p><span>首先、我们应该很难看到2000年的纳指短时间快速崩盘。因为美股短期的涨幅是温和的,特别是2018年9月和2019年5月,股指有过两次较大规模调整。</span></p>\n<p><span>其次、2000年美股崩盘的一个主要催化剂是微软。这一点,2019年有很多可以想象的冲击,包括苹果、脸书、亚马逊都有可能成为市场冲击的主要原因。在当前盈利增长缓慢,经济周期先行指数在零附近的情况下,在地缘政治冲突密布的背景下,我们并不知道是否会有某个冲击事件引发连锁反应。</span></p>\n<p><span>第三、连锁反应启动后,不需要担心后续的燃料。最主要的燃料其实就是股票多头本身。美股长达数年的上涨行情,有了大量的盈利盘,而这些盈利盘很多是通过ETF等指数基金实现的。而这些年的低利率,导致各种显性和隐形的股票杠杆很高,一旦市场快速下跌,引发杠杆盘追加保证金或者强行平仓,市场具备深跌的可能性。</span></p>\n<p><span>第四、金融脆弱性主要在于中小企业高杠杆融资。这点罗素小盘股指数已经指明了市场方向。所以,这一轮美股下跌,领跌的很可能是中小盘股指,而不是传统的纳指或者标普。2018年9月份的市场动荡中,罗素2000下跌幅度最深,达到了27.28%。股票价格与高杠杆融资的确存在一种正反馈机制,但是能否启动这种正反馈,需要我们密切跟踪高杠杆融资的违约情况。</span></p>","source":"qqggdh","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股2000年崩盘启示录\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2019-08-12 09:17 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UQPIaN9aDgdWvUV1L6hZRA><strong> 全球宏观投机</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2019年美股更像哪一年?\n首先,并不像1929年,也不像2008年。虽然美国高息公司债一直是市场老手琢磨的重点,但是现在的确还没有证据表明2019年高息债市场已经类似2006年的次贷市场。1929年是疯狂的杠杆做多股票(很类似2015年的中国股市),现在美股的大环境已经跟1929年完全无法比拟,尤其是央行和政府在应对市场危机方面。\n2019年的美股会是一个全新的格局,跟历史上每一次大型熊市的起点...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UQPIaN9aDgdWvUV1L6hZRA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UQPIaN9aDgdWvUV1L6hZRA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165923562","content_text":"2019年美股更像哪一年?\n首先,并不像1929年,也不像2008年。虽然美国高息公司债一直是市场老手琢磨的重点,但是现在的确还没有证据表明2019年高息债市场已经类似2006年的次贷市场。1929年是疯狂的杠杆做多股票(很类似2015年的中国股市),现在美股的大环境已经跟1929年完全无法比拟,尤其是央行和政府在应对市场危机方面。\n2019年的美股会是一个全新的格局,跟历史上每一次大型熊市的起点可能都不相同。因为这是一个全新的低利率时代、政府对股市的关注前所未有、积累了丰富的应对市场内部崩盘的经验(这是1987年的教训),日本央行开创的QQE包括了直接购买股票ETF的先例。所以,我们要在这种新的历史条件下探讨市场未来崩盘的路径。\n不过正如利佛摩尔所说,人性如山岳一般古老,懒惰、恐惧、贪婪和幻想是人性的基本部分,这决定了任何市场都有繁荣-萧条周期,而金融监管总是走在市场崩盘后面。这决定了未来一段时间,美股会有大型波动(超过30%)。\n我这次复盘2000年技术泡沫,原因如下:\n这是一次大型股票衰退,从波峰到波谷,纳斯达克综合指数一共有72%跌幅。\n这次崩盘的直接触发因素是公司在信息技术方面的投资超过需求,市场过度投资了技术类股票的前景。\n监管上的缺陷主要包括大量公司财务造假,这是繁荣时期和监管放松阶段的必然产物。\n这些特征与我设想的美股下一次崩盘有类似之处。这也是美股上个世纪以来几次主要大型衰退中我唯一还没有复盘的一个,这次算是补充家庭作业。\n2周期、美股、美元和加息\n中文世界里面充斥了各种关于美股的不真实信息,譬如加息刺破泡沫,加息提振美元之类。真实的情况是,1980年代以来的几次美股下跌(超过20%)与加息周期的关系并不明朗,甚至几乎都是加息周期结束后才达到股票顶点。而美元与美联储加息周期更是毫无关系。\n图 1980年代以来的美股、美元与加息\n\n本轮美联储从7月30日开始进入降息周期,这倒是提醒我们,美股大跌的时间可能临近了,如果我们相信历史数据的话。上图红框是美国加息周期,绿线是标普,紫红线是美元指数。\n其中,与2000年美股头部加息相关的起始日期是1999年6月15日到2000年5月12日。事后我们知道,美股头部出现在2000年3月(以纳指算)。\n决定货币政策、资产价格和投资者情绪最深层的力量是经济周期。那么,2000年股市头部对应的经济周期如何呢?\n图 互联网泡沫时代的经济周期\n\n数据来源:ECRI\n在我之前公开发表的文章中,我提示了经济周期分析的技巧。美国经济的高点出现在1999年7月,但此时股票开始最后的大涨,经济在2000年5月出现较为明显的走弱,而此时股票头部已现。但是在当时,除非是极高明的交易者,是不敢确认说股票高点已经出现。\n简单看,这一轮经济周期与股指的关系依然非常经典。经济周期先行指数领先或者同步于股票头部。这一次,经济周期顶点领先股票顶点9个月,在经济周期先行指数接近同比为负时股票确认头部。\n图 2000年美股头部的技术特征\n\n我们看到,标普依然是一个标准的圆形顶,而纳指则表现出更大的波动性。同样,我们可以从跌幅看,纳指的跌幅远大于标普,这也给我们启发:下一次做空美股的主攻方向。一般美股头部的重要经验是,领涨板块出现回落。我们一会儿分析2019年的图形。\n3股市头部总是悄无声息\n接下来,我们回到历史现场,逐日过一遍当时的市场新闻。与我公开发表的1929年和1987年复盘一样,依然是采用当时的实时新闻加上我自己的思考。新闻来源全部是彭博。\n 2000年3月10日。股票指数新高。因为交易过于活跃,以至于交易堵塞了一分多钟,指数停止更新了40分钟,交易量持续新高。前一天纳指超越5000,这是一个历史性的时刻,要注意整数关口的心理含义。此时,华尔街讨论的是,何时如何超越6000。我直接引用当时的一个报导。另外,3月10日是周五。这一天,纳指最高点是5133。一切似乎都非常完美。市场虽然不时有一些下挫,但是很快就会回到上涨趋势。\nInvestors Question What Group Will Lead Nasdaq Higher, WSJ Says\nNew York, March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Nasdaq Composite's surge to 5000 has resembled a race with one group of technology stocks passing the baton to another, and analysts and investors are questioning what group will lead it to 6000, the Wall Street Journal reported in its ``Heard on the Street'' column. Microsoft Corp. and Dell Computer Corp. helped push the Nasdaq to 4000, and then upstarts such as PMC-Sierra Inc. and Juniper Networks Inc. helped it reach 5000. Tom Marsico, head of Marsico Capital Management, expects Entrust Technologies Inc. and Flextronics International Ltd. to help propel the Nasdaq to a new high, while Ruth Porat of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter said she expects the Internet stocks will continue to lead, the paper said.\nThe Nasdaq Composite Index closed above 5000 for the first time in its 29-year history yesterday.\n一个愉快的周末,投资者继续享受计算机、互联网和生物科技等新经济股票带来的巨大收益。虽然不少市场老手担忧股价上升过快(表现的结果是估值过高),但是并没有明显的头部特征,即便有,也有可能是市场自发的一个技术调整。\n 2000年3月13日周一。日本经济数据显示将连续第二个季度陷入收缩。周日巴菲特表示美国股市投资者乐观过度,股市将会有修正,当天美国股指期货在亚盘和欧盘时间下跌,领跌的是戴尔和亚马逊,市场担心日本是否还有足够的IT需求。美股开盘大跌,纳指最低下跌超过4%,收盘下跌1.5%。市场讨论较多的是信息技术类股票的盈利是否能支持股票目前的涨幅。虽然是糟糕的一天,但是没有人能看到美股高点已过。当天股指剧烈波动,高点达到5027,收盘图形是高上影线的小实体,这说明多头一度试图把握优势,但是收盘时不得不退回到4907,但相比开盘,股指收涨。\n 3月14日周二。知名股票分析师Dorfman分析了当时的市场深度,标普、道指和纳指出现了历史上少见的显著分离,除了纳指继续大涨外,标普和道指都下跌。这种市场背离是一个非常典型的股票头部标志,意味着股指的新高是由少数股票贡献的,多数股票的买盘已经力度不足。仔细分析下表美国最大市值20家公司的涨跌,Dorfman发现9只上涨11只下降。20只股票集中在计算机、通信和制药行业。从涨跌比例上看不出特别的分离,但是如果看涨跌幅和市盈率,那我们很容易就发现市场的深度很薄,这意味着一旦市场转向,下跌的力度很大。\n当日早盘大涨,但收盘大跌4.1%。热门股甲骨文一季度盈利超过市场预期,英特尔宣布收购欧洲一家技术公司,分析师对技术股普遍乐观,将一季度盈利增长上调到18.3%,之前是18%。当天虽然股票大跌,但刚上市的三只互联网股票中有两只翻倍。\n周二的图形非常难看。预示着调整没有结束。但公司盈利的数据会麻痹很多人。既然甲骨文和英特尔都保持了这么好的盈利数据,市场的高价也许是合理的。这个时候,你是相信公司盈利数据(宏观因子之一)还是图形呢(另外一个宏观因子)?所以,不要嘲笑在这天逢低买入美股的人。\nPIMCO公司的Hodge继续警告美股风险,但是他的用词是修正,虽然他也说了,泡沫不会慢慢破灭的。在市场狂热气氛中,很多老手都知道状况不可持续,但是谁也不敢说这就是泡沫的头部。从3月10日到24日的图形见下。\n图 头部总是在不经意间到来\n\n我也比较了美国如今市值最大20家公司过去三个月的相对表现,发现目前美股的市场深度合理,市值最大20家公司12家上涨,8家下跌,从行业分布、涨跌幅、市盈率看,当前美股相对健康。\n表 2000年美股深度\n\n表 美股市场深度2019\n\n 3月15日周三。PPI数据显示美国没有通胀压力,给股票提供了宏观支撑。今天也是开盘上涨,收盘下跌。纳指距离高点10%,符合一般所讲的“技术调整”范畴。此时很多投资者虽然认为技术股需要继续调整,但其他股票被低估,股票总体依然有机会。引用当时一个基金经理的说法:\nNasdaq Falls, Down 10% From Record; Dow Rallies for Second Day\n``The Nasdaq stocks are still in a period of uncertainty with many needing to correct,'' said Henry Cavanna, a money manager with J.P. Morgan & Co. which oversees $320 million.\nMany investors, including Cavanna, are instead buying financial, drug and industrial companies, ``which are showing signs of life,'' he said.\n市场在关注雅虎收购eBay的传闻。可见,市场在头部区域依然不乏各种美好的想象。换了我们,会在当时买入eBay吗?这是每一个交易员都应该问自己的问题。\n 3月16日周四。在微软和高通带领下,纳指强势反弹,一根长长的下影线。多头会认为,调整可能结束了。耐克利润增长17%,略超预期,股价大涨。看起来股票可能又要回到上涨趋势。\n 3月17日周五,纳指上涨1.7%。很多大型基金经理继续看涨技术股,认为过去一周的调整提供了很好的买点。\nNasdaq Gains a 2nd Day; Dow Falls, Finishes Best Week Since '84\nVeritas Software Corp. and Qualcomm Inc. were among the big gainers in the Nasdaq, which rose 80.74, or 1.7 percent, to 4798.13 on expectations money will continue flowing into mutual funds that buy computer-related and telecommunications stocks.\n``A lot of these stocks, such as JDS Uniphase, are down for the week and are buying opportunities,'' said Gil Knight, a portfolio manager with Allied Investment Advisors Inc. in Baltimore, which oversees $10 billion. ``We are about to see another run on technology as that is still where the growth is.''\n这几天还有一个现象就是技术股与其他股票的跷跷板效应。当纳指下跌时,道指和标普上涨,而纳指上涨时,后者下跌。\n这一天共有24家美国公司发布了盈利预警。公司盈利始终是市场的心病,主要是因为股价上涨过快,大家都担心盈利的增速能否支撑股价。\n这是头部出现后的第二个周末,股票经历了动荡的一周,但是考虑到之前类似的接近10%调整并不少见,加上周四和周五股票已经收回部分跌幅,市场的心态依然是良好的。\n 3月20日周一。雷曼发布了创纪录的盈利数据,券商和银行股早盘大涨。但指数收盘下跌1.8%。今天市场传闻联储下次加息幅度将是50个基点,而不是以往的25。但也有分析师从历史数据分析,纳指在过去4次加息中,都是上涨,认为这个担心是多余的。\n这里我们会看到市场情绪的快速切换。宏观事件对股票的冲击持续时间往往都有限,甚至包括海湾战争之类的冲击,影响都不会特别长。我就是我提出投机市场“近视眼模型”的例证之一。\n 3月21日周二。在英特尔、美光、美国在线领涨下,美股上涨1.6%。一家管理70亿美元的基金说,投资者持续追加资金进入技术股,这是他们必须拥有的股票。中国的段子手可能将来会引用这段话嘲笑这些基金经理,但这种嘲笑没有任何意义。因为只要设想一下,换了你,你会怎么做?今天的新闻是过去三天,一共有170亿美元涌入了股票基金,其中54亿美元进入了信息科技和互联网股票。加息担忧似乎消退了,宴会继续。\n 3月22日周三。联邦政府可能结束对微软的反垄断调查,微软大涨。彭博新闻社的评论是,泡沫论无法阻止激进投资者。过去这些年,大量持有科技股的基金经理到处宣言投资科技股的收益,以及,科技股的确在改变我们的生活。人人都要做长期持股的有远见的投资者。\n 3月23日周四。纳指大涨2.7%。临近季度末,过去几年流行的季末效应再度在市场传闻,即基金喜欢在季末公布持股前买入热门股票,以此讨好投资者。微软和解的信息继续鼓励市场,而资金依然在加速流入股市。\n这就是我为什么从来不看股市资金流动这个指标,因为这个指标,可以理解成为是笨蛋指标。在所有投机市场中,聪明钱寻找的都是先行指标。\nU.S. Stocks Extend Gains as Microsoft Rises; Cisco Shares Gain\nSome gains were spurred by money managers' attempting to ``window dress'' their portfolios by buying the recent big gainers before investors scrutinize their performance at the quarter's end.\n``The momentum has returned,'' said Joe DeMarco, head of stock trading for HSBC Asset Management Americas Inc. ``It's the end of the quarter, and window dressing is probably a part of the move.''\nMicrosoft gained 2 5/8 to 114 1/2. Lawyers for the company and Justice Department were heading to Chicago for a mediation session with a federal judge. The government's antitrust chief was expected to attend.\nAn estimated $21.9 billion flowed into all equity funds in the five days ending Wednesday, compared with $4.4 billion during the prior week, according to Carl Wittnebert, director of research at TrimTabs.com.\n 3月24日周五。连续几天上涨后,市场情绪明显高涨。分析师看好技术股盈利,同时认为技术股应该享有溢价。纳指创下了过去9年最好的一季度表现。新高似乎指日可待。但是这天,股票收了一个十字星,最高点5079,距离历史高点一步之遥。我们现在来看这些基金经理的话,是不是依然觉得充满道理和逻辑呢?分析师已经将一季度技术股的盈利增长调整到22%。\nProfit Expectations Signal Nasdaq Gains: U.S. Stocks Outlook\nNew York, March 24 (Bloomberg) -- The Nasdaq Composite Index, headed for its best first-quarter performance in nine years, may rally further, some investors and analysts say.\nComputer-related and telecommunications companies, which make up 72 percent of the index, are expected to post faster profit growth this quarter than companies in other industries. A higher percentage of Nasdaq stocks have advanced this quarter than in all of 1999.\nAnd investors don't seem to mind paying the premium Nasdaq shares command, compared with stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.\n``Tech is headed higher -- investors are discriminating>In the past two weeks, Orlando bought shares of Oracle Corp., JDS Uniphase Corp. and Flextronics International Ltd., a maker of circuit boards and cell phones that has beaten analysts' earnings estimates for four of five quarters.\nFaster Profit Growth\nAnalysts surveyed by First Call/Thomson financial expect 22 percent first-quarter profit growth from the telecommunications and computer-related companies in the S&P 500, including Nasdaq stocks such as Microsoft Corp., Dell Computer Corp. and Cisco Systems Inc. That's up from 14.6 percent last quarter and more than the 18.3 percent average for the entire index.\n这周投资者经历了狂野的一周,但最终股市继续上涨,唯一的遗憾可能就是周五没能一举新高。但对于相信“逢低买入”的投资者而言,这又是他们愚蠢信条胜利的一周。下周股市会继续新高,不是吗?\n 3月27日周一。高盛的Abby Cohen将股票配置比例从70%下调到65%,将现金比例从0增加到5%。她是著名的股票多头,这是从1999年1月份以来,她第一次下调股票比例。但她同时看好标普,将标普的年度目标价格上调3.3%至1575。而该年结束时,标普实际点位是1320。如果读过《对冲基金风云录》的读者,大概已经知道Cohen就是其中一个角色的原型了吧。当天股票下跌0.1%,收盘在4958.56。\n我们来看看当时一家2.4亿美元规模投资公司的说法。\nU.S. Stocks Fall After Goldman's Cohen Reduces Equity Weighting\nCohen, one of Wall Street's most bullish strategists, reduced the stock weighting in her model portfolio to 65 percent from 70 percent and raised the cash allocation to 5 percent from zero.\n``When she speaks, markets move, and rightfully so,'' said Richard Sichel, chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., which oversees $240 million. ``She has a lot of credibility, and she's earned it.''\nCohen doesn't think the S&P 500 is overvalued, though it probably won't rise more than 10 percent this year, according to a summary of her comments distributed to clients this morning.\nCohen last week raised her year-end target on the S&P 500 3.3 percent to 1575 from 1525.\n我仔细看了Cohen的报告,她实际上对美股还是相当乐观的,她更多是做了一个战术配置的调整,将股票少量从技术股转移到传统股票。而同一天格林斯潘的证词缓解了加息忧虑,因为他认为油价对通胀的影响不足为虑。这一天美国30年期国债收益率5.98%,两年期6.62%,债券收益率倒挂。一些机构认为美联储会在未来几个月将联邦基准利率上调至6.5%。市场还是对通胀存在担忧,当时的通胀水平低于联储政策目标2%,主要是从1999年8月开始通胀有上行趋势。\n图 2000年美股崩盘时的通胀特征\n\n当天领跌的是微软,因为与司法部的和解出现波折。\n我总在想,如果利佛摩尔在世,这一天他会怎么操作?\n真正在市场一线的人,每天面对的都是这些相互矛盾的信息,利好利空几乎是永远相伴而生。从来没有一个决策是容易的。\n 3月28日周二。市场还在消化Cohen的报告。三大指数全部下跌,纳指下跌2.5%。\n 3月29周三。欧盘时间美股跟随下跌,主要是计算机类股票。摩根斯坦利的Canelo提示客户买入股票。以下是他的理由。\nMorgan Stanley's Canelo Raises Stock Allocation to 75% From 70%\nNew York, March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. investment strategist Peter Canelo said clients should raise the percentage of assets invested in stocks to 75 percent from 70 percent by adding to non-U.S. holdings.\n``There are so many reasons to buy stocks,'' said Canelo. ``The inflation scare is over, unit labor costs have collapsed, the U.S. dollar is strong, earnings have been raised 15 percent and productivity is booming. I look at all this stuff and think this is no time to cut back.''\nCanelo said he expected the Standard & Poor's 500 Index could reach 1695 by the end of the year.\n当天纳指下跌3.9%,买盘分析散户依然在活跃买入技术类股票。\n 3月30日周四。纳指继续下跌4%。高通、思科和英特尔大跌。距离前高再次达到10%。市场的宏观因子很清晰:技术股盈利增长依然不错,但是价格上涨过快;Buy Dips的成功策略引发的投资者惯性买入。我们看一个管理40亿美元组合基金经理的说法。\nU.S. Stocks Fall as Investors Flee Computer, Telecom Shares\nBuying The Dips\nSome investors saw the Nasdaq's drop as an opportunity to buy shares whose prices have fallen this week.\n``It's a fast-money crowd of people who trade on very minor news,'' said Rich Barnett, portfolio manager at City National Investments in Beverly Hills, California which oversees $4 billion. ``We're looking at this as a buying opportunity.''\nBarnett was buying shares in Conexant Systems Inc., down 27 percent this month, and PanAmSat Corp., which dropped 25 percent yesterday.\n从Barnett买入的股票看,他过去的成功策略最终会让他非常受伤。这也提示我们,机构投资者的行为并不一定就是合理的。研究机构投资者行为,是一种无效率的方法。\n 3月31日周五,纳指反弹2.6%到4572.89。这一周随着股票下跌,债券收益率下行,这是一直存在的跷跷板效应。微软和英特尔盈利喜人。\n应该说,这一天的行情是比较有迷惑性的。第一,技术支撑位,上次在这里股票得到支撑。第二、技术股领头羊盈利不错,调整买入的力量依然存在,市场会进入到威克夫头部震荡还是下行呢?如果我在当时,严格的说我看不出方向。\n这一周纳指下跌7.9%,是1月28日以来最大周跌幅。事后看,这一周是多头减仓,空头建仓的最好时机。但是到底如何操作,取决于你之前的状态是什么。如果你一直持有多头,盈利丰富,你很可能把它视为一个正常的技术调整,甚至你会逢低买入;如果你一直在等待做空美股的机会,那么,这一周会是利佛摩尔入场的时机。\n 4月3日纳指暴跌7.6%。盘中传出微软与司法部和解失败,大跌14.5%。技术上破坏了之前头部区间交易的假设。盘后又有一些消息传出,微软股价回升。基金经理觉得这是难得的买入机会,因为即便微软被拆分,拆分后的价值加总依然会大于当前的市值。事后看,这是多么明显的思维偏差,因为这个基金持有了100万股微软股票,市值约9200万美元。\nMicrosoft Gains Following Antitrust Ruling: After-Hours Trading\nNew York, April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Microsoft Corp. shares gained in extended trading after U.S. District Court Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson ruled the world's No. 1 software maker had violated antitrust law.\nMicrosoft rose to 92 13/16 from its 4 p.m. closing price of 90 7/8. Earlier it traded at 92 5/32 in after-hours trading before it was halted for 50 minutes.\n``It's a buying opportunity,'' said Robert Bissell, president of Wells Capital Management in Los Angeles, which owned 1 million Microsoft shares as of Dec. 31. ``Even if the government broke it up, it's worth more in pieces than the whole.''\nThe company struck exclusive agreements and rolled its browser into its Windows computer operating system illegally, the judge ruled. The ruling precedes hearings to determine penalties that could include breaking up the company. The ruling may also be cited in suits against Microsoft.\nDuring the day Microsoft fell 15 3/8 to 90 7/8. ``No one likes legal action,'' Bissell said. ``It presents uncertainty, which investors hate.''\n读者朋友请注意,我引用这些同行的话,无半点讽刺他们的意思。我其实一直是在想,如果我当时有美股仓位,我会怎么做?我引用这些说法,是想复原当时场景下,我自己构建和分析宏观因子的过程。\n 4月4日,2000年股灾中最狂野的一天。纳指在暴跌13.6%以后收复失地,最后只下跌了1.77%。这是典型的技术破位后的大跌。这天,有些在线券商提高了保证金比例,这也许触发了一些零售卖单。成交量创下历史新高。如果是空头,在暴跌13.6%后同时市场迅速收回时应该果断平掉头寸,至少是一大半。从几次美股大跌情况看,持续的大跌往往会接连发生,所以,当股指发生大幅下跌后,交易者一定要做一个判断,真正的恐慌到底是什么?7%日跌幅就是恐慌极限吗?还是10%以上?\n买入力量是什么呢?一是空头平仓,二是逢低买入的巨大力量。当天收盘后彭博做了一个专访,采访了很多基金经理,不少人都认为美国经济表现良好,投资者是趁股票大跌进行仓位调整,也有人认为,美股大跌后,联储会停止加息,而这会推升美股。\n因为当天股指反弹回去,技术派会认为市场底部已经探明,同时市场在底部也显示了不错的流动性,这是多头的理由。\n到今天,高点到底部的幅度已经是29%,而这一切,就是在短短几个交易日完成的。我们知道,做空美股从来都是一个极难的事情,时机把握非常难,仓位管理非常难,一旦行情启动,如果不能大胆加仓,很难赚到真正大钱。\n这一天相信对很多人而言,都是终生难忘的一天。直到今天,依然很多人认为美股只是一个正常的技术调整。这里引用的都是一些管理数亿美元基金经理的 盘后采访。\nNasdaq Plummets, Rebounds: Investors Comment on a Wild Day\nNew York, April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Investors comment on a wild day in the U.S. stock market, when the Nasdaq Composite Index plunged as much as 13.6 percent only to rebound, ending down 1.77 percent.\nRichard Strong, chairman of Strong Capital Management Inc. in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, which manages more than $40 billion in mutual funds and other assets:\n``The markets were ahead of themselves. But the economy is no different today from where it was 90 days ago or 180 days ago. In all the years I've been in the business (since 1967) the U.S. economy and the world economy are the best they've ever been.''\n读者听到这些话是不是会觉得特别熟悉?每一次股票大跌后,都有人会找经济上的理由。美股每一次崩盘时,经济状况到底如何?这个答案取决于你会不会分析经济数据。对于真正掌握了经济分析精髓的交易者,看的数据完全不同于主流大众的看法。如果在这个时候,还在寻求所谓经济基本面,公司业绩良好来为股票大跌辩护,显然没有理解市场真正运行的逻辑。\nSteve Saldanha, vice president and director of global asset allocation at CT Investment Management Inc. in Toronto:\n``We expect this market to resume its move upward in a more stable fashion, centered on well-established large-cap stocks or some of the truly well-managed smaller tech and bio-tech companies with good business plans.''\nMyles Gillespie, president of Fleet Specialists LLC:\n``I think this is purely margins and redemptions. The quality stocks will bounce back but the `air' ones won't. This is a real valuation correction for stocks.''\nPeter Mancuso, specialist for Buttonwood Specialists LLC, which trades CAN Surety Corp., Tasty Baking Co., Ashland Inc., and Universal Foods Corp.:\n``Things here today are very stable. We've been through this kind of thing before. The market here is groping for a bottom. It's a time of taking stocks out of weak hands and putting them in strong hands. Days like today show that there's real liquidity on this floor.''\n股票大跌后,也有很多投资者喜欢从轮动的角度去解释市场。上面这些投资者要么以老手自居,认为这种程度的跌幅以前也经历过,正好是市场换手机会;要么就是不愿意放弃技术股偏见,找到各种理由为继续持有技术股辩护。\n阅读上面这些记录,真是非常感慨。每个交易者都有自己的偏见,当市场发生巨大的范式转换的时候,这种过时的偏见会让一个交易者失去判断能力。这反过来说明,交易体系中,风险控制是何等重要。风险控制的根本是承认我们自己会犯错。\n 4月5日市场剧烈波动,多空反复角力。从技术上讲,这是一个糟糕的信号。说明多头没能一举延续昨天的势头,推高股市。纳指反复7次在上涨和下跌中来回。虽然收盘略高于昨天收盘,但是市场显然还在寻找方向。对于了解市场的人而言,美股的宏观因子非常清晰。一方面是认为技术股的季报会非常好,完全可以支撑当前的股价,而另一方则认为估值已经太高。应该说,两方都有各自的道理,可惜市场只有一面,这个时候,真是该放下自我偏见,认真倾听市场声音的时候了。\n 4月6日周四。纳指反弹2.4%。甲骨文领涨,生物技术公司PE宣布已经解码了99%人类基因组密码。\n 4月7日周五,纳指大幅反弹4.2%。市场依然预期技术股业绩大涨,分析师一致预期一季度EPS增长26%。从技术上,这是一个重要的价位。市场接近4500,正是之前的支撑位,现在变阻力位。如果从下跌底部算起,现在反弹已经超过了20%。可以设想,如果空头当时没有及时平仓或者降低仓位,这种凶猛的反弹也是让人非常难受的。\n这是2000年科技股泡沫最关键的一周。这一周基本宣布了科技股牛市结束。然而,在当时,相信只有少数人可以做这个判断。从资金讲,暴跌30%已经让一些杠杆资金爆仓,追缴保证金的压力使得最激进的多头已经非常受伤,而从市场心理讲,宏观因子的博弈开始转向估值派,其实没有什么估值,核心就是价格上涨太快了。但不论怎么说,市场毕竟反弹了,所以下周一的行情尤其重要。如果下周一行情不对,那将是多头最明确的出场信号了。\n 4月10日周一,股指大跌5.8%。通过复盘四次美股头部,我发现一个现象,那就是周五和周一的行情特别重要。今天市场的新闻风格终于改变了,大家都在讨论纳指股票估值太高。而终于有一些分析师开始认为美股高点已经过去,这不是一次简单的修正,而可能是一个较长的下跌趋势了。\nNasdaq Tumbles to 8th-Biggest Loss Ever; Dow Industrials Gain\nNew York, April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled to its eighth-biggest loss ever as investors unloaded Qualcomm Inc., JDS Uniphase Corp. and other telecommunications and computer-related stocks whose declines have driven down the index 17 percent in a month.\nNasdaq stocks trade for an average 208 times recent earnings, while Dow stocks trade for 26 times profit. Analysts polled by First Call project average first-quarter profit growth for companies in the S&P 500 of 18.8 percent.\n`Corrective Trend'\nMerrill Lynch & Co.'s chief market analyst, Richard McCabe, said in a report that the computer-related shares that dominate the Nasdaq have further to slide even after the index dropped three out of the four weeks since setting its last record. The Nasdaq, which fell as much as 13.6 percent Tuesday before rebounding, has dropped 17 percent from its high March 10.\n``The technology sector has begun an important corrective trend,'' McCabe wrote. The month-long decline ``is not a brief, random event, but the beginning of a longer-lasting change.'' He advised buying energy, financial and consumer-cyclical shares.\n我们可以看到,到这一天,市场情绪完全转变了。摩托罗拉宣布二季度盈利可能会低于之前预估,股市与经济的相互影响开始出现。这个时候,是空头重新入场或者加大仓位的绝好时机,如果是之前采取了对冲结构,那么现在就是变为净空头的有利时机。\n 4月11日周二。纳指下跌3.2%。\n 4月12日周三,纳指下跌7.1%。\n 4月13日周四,开盘纳指一度反弹3.9%,但最终下跌2.5%,这个跌幅几乎是在收盘前45分钟完成的,指数点位3676.78。\n这天的经历在2018年2月初的美股波动中我是深有体会。美股的情绪崩塌,往往在收盘前30分钟会达到高潮。\n 4月14日周五,纳指下跌9.7%,股指收于3321.29,回想一个月之前5133的高点,恍若隔世。市场开始为暴跌寻找理由,其中包括股票杠杆融资过多。而CPI数据则创下过去五年的最高增速,这意味着5月16日美联储还可能继续加息。\n这是典型的美股崩盘第二波。在1929年,1987年和2008年都出现过,我相信在未来也会出现。这里面实际上是市场情绪变化的痕迹,而市场最终用买卖行为诠释了主流偏见的变化。\n 4月17日周一,纳指反弹6.6%,在技术上形成了一个标准的牛市孕入,考虑到股票已经下跌39%,分析师纷纷呼吁买入股票,因为股票已经足够便宜。高盛的Cohen继续坚持她关于标普年度目标的判断。实际上,故事已经结束,这个时候,空头应该退出仓位,或者小范围参与做多反弹。\n接下来,纳指就进入了一个长达7个月的区间震荡,股指在3000和4280之间来回震荡,上下杀人。直到2000年底,纳指跌破3000,开始下一轮快速下跌过程。\n42019年的纳指\n\n首先、我们应该很难看到2000年的纳指短时间快速崩盘。因为美股短期的涨幅是温和的,特别是2018年9月和2019年5月,股指有过两次较大规模调整。\n其次、2000年美股崩盘的一个主要催化剂是微软。这一点,2019年有很多可以想象的冲击,包括苹果、脸书、亚马逊都有可能成为市场冲击的主要原因。在当前盈利增长缓慢,经济周期先行指数在零附近的情况下,在地缘政治冲突密布的背景下,我们并不知道是否会有某个冲击事件引发连锁反应。\n第三、连锁反应启动后,不需要担心后续的燃料。最主要的燃料其实就是股票多头本身。美股长达数年的上涨行情,有了大量的盈利盘,而这些盈利盘很多是通过ETF等指数基金实现的。而这些年的低利率,导致各种显性和隐形的股票杠杆很高,一旦市场快速下跌,引发杠杆盘追加保证金或者强行平仓,市场具备深跌的可能性。\n第四、金融脆弱性主要在于中小企业高杠杆融资。这点罗素小盘股指数已经指明了市场方向。所以,这一轮美股下跌,领跌的很可能是中小盘股指,而不是传统的纳指或者标普。2018年9月份的市场动荡中,罗素2000下跌幅度最深,达到了27.28%。股票价格与高杠杆融资的确存在一种正反馈机制,但是能否启动这种正反馈,需要我们密切跟踪高杠杆融资的违约情况。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}