35行迹的个人主页 - 老虎社区

35行迹

35行迹

少数派价值投资人

IP属地：海外

75关注

4粉丝

1主题

0勋章

2021-08-05

做梦去吧

透过联电看中芯国际：晶圆制造 yyds！

2020-08-11

段永平嘴里的完全不懂就是完全不靠谱😂

段永平谈做空跟谁学：中国很大这点营业额成长比例不是不可能

2020-08-11

跟谁学是老段看不懂的公司

段永平谈老外做空跟谁学：这个世界有很多你不懂的事情，为什么要跟自己过不去？

2020-06-23

$跟谁学(GSX)$两家对比一下一百万粉丝买来的吧转发量好多个位数不如人家几万粉丝转发量大

2020-06-23

$跟谁学(GSX)$真搞不懂都是一样的套路为啥只有跟谁学盈利了也看不出这四家哪家好哪家坏更看不懂哪里值百亿美元市值

2020-06-23

$跟谁学(GSX)$这是竞争白热化了吗 9块钱十四节课还不让评论😂

2020-06-19

$跟谁学(GSX)$员工眼里的跟谁学换个角度看问题

2020-06-18

$跟谁学(GSX)$看看跟谁学和学而思两家的区别都是百万粉丝点赞量也没谁了估计都懒得造假了几十上百的点赞量😂

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的产能利用率，反应公司目前订单十分充足。</p><p>具体来看：</p><p><strong>1）核心指标一：联电毛利率及成本背后溢出的 “行业高景气”</strong></p><p>21Q2联电毛利率达到 31.2%，来到 10 年历史新高。从环比层面看，毛利率增长了 4.7%，其主要来自于出货均价的提升。</p><p>随着晶圆行业景气度的回暖，联电晶圆出货均价创近 3 年内的新高。再通过联电单片晶圆（等效 8 寸片）分析，环比层面上联电晶圆的固定成本（折旧摊销）和可变成本（其他制造费用）并没出现太多变化，那么晶圆出货均价的提高直接可以带动单片<span>毛利</span>的提升。</p><p><strong>价格和毛利率的明显提升，反应晶圆制造行业的高景气。</strong></p><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p><strong>2）核心指标二：晶圆付运量和产能利用率背后的 “行业高景气”</strong></p><p>21Q2联电产能利用率 103%，连续两个季度超过 100%。从环比层面，联电的产能利用率虽略有下滑，但是海豚君观察到公司的晶圆付运量环比提升，这是因为联电在季度内保持扩产的节奏。从历史数据看，由于半导体是个持续成长的行业，联电的产能从季度上反应也在不断扩充。21Q2联电大约有 4% 的扩产幅度，但公司仍取得了超过 100% 的产能利用率，侧面验证公司的订单充足。</p><p><strong>晶圆扩产情况下仍然满载，反应晶圆制造行业高景气。</strong></p><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p><strong>3）核心指标三：各制程节点背后折射出 12 寸成熟工艺的更高景气度</strong></p><p>21Q2联电各节点收入占比分析，40-65nm 和 65-90nm 制程收入占比环比提升 1%，28-40nm 制程收入占比环比下滑 2%。</p><p>结合近期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>财报会上 Timothy D. Cook 对芯片的看法，苹果方面对于芯片供应安全的关注，先进工艺并没有大的问题，传统制程的供应安全更为担心。再结合联电各节点（成熟40-65nm 和 65-90nm 制程收入占比提升）可以推断，40-90nm 的 12 寸成熟工艺表现得更为紧缺。</p><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p>面对全球增长的 12 寸晶圆需求，联电的 12 寸晶圆产能处于扩张周期。12 寸晶圆产能近 10 个季度以来基本呈现环比增长，本季度的环比增长更是达到 6%，产能扩充节奏领先于其他制程工艺。</p><p>从联电的财报数据看，12 寸成熟工艺制程需求攀升，精准印证了海豚君之前的推断 “汽车芯片需求的增长迫使部分原 8 寸产品进行转单，12 寸晶圆部分产能承接 8 寸片的转单需求。对晶圆产能需求的增长，推升了行业产能利用率水平”。</p><p><strong>晶圆制造的紧张情况，在 12 寸成熟工艺平台尤为明显。</strong></p><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">中芯国际</a>：大陆 “联电” 的正向增长</strong></p><p>本次联电的财报反映了整体晶圆制造行业的高景气：</p><p>1）产能利用率：产能满载，超 100% 的产能利用率反应<strong>行业整体景气度高</strong>；</p><p>2）晶圆出货均价：晶圆价格环比提升 5.1%，行业市场化定价属性反应<strong>整体行业出货价提升</strong>；</p><p>3）成本结构：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">中芯国际</a><strong>的成本结构接近联电，毛利率有望抬升</strong>（类同于联电受出货价直接拉动）；</p><p>4）产能结构：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>具有大陆最大的 12 寸晶圆制造产能，<strong>公司和联电的产能中 12 寸晶圆占比都超 50%。在 12 寸成熟制程晶圆的高景气下，</strong><strong>中芯国际</strong><strong>和联电都将受益</strong>；</p><p>5）国产替代的急迫性：<strong>在芯片制造国产化背景下，中国大陆 12 寸晶圆存在更为严重的供需差，目前仅有 2 家晶圆代工厂具备量产能力，而绝大部分的产能来自</strong><strong>于中芯国际</strong>。</p><p><strong>中芯国际</strong><strong>作为半导体行业的后来者，除了先进工艺，成熟工艺上落下的课也要补。</strong>联电的产能利用率反应了全球 12 寸成熟工艺的产能紧张情况，同时由于中国大陆本身存在巨大的供需差，产能紧张表现得更为明显<strong>。</strong></p><p><strong>中芯国际作为中国大陆半导体的领军企业，不仅制程工艺领先，更是坐拥大陆最大的晶圆制造产能。在晶圆产能紧张、价格上涨受益的同时，中芯国际等也要把成熟工艺落下的课补上的任务。</strong></p><p><strong>时势造英雄，国产半导体，东风渐来。</strong></p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n透过联电看中芯国际：晶圆制造 yyds！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-29 21:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021072921290879d9cb31&s=b><strong>腾讯新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文作者：长桥旗下海豚投研晶圆制造景气度持续，核心指标全面超指引预期。联电于2021年7月28日发布了公司 2021 年第二季度财报，核心指标如下：1）营收、超预期：实现营收 509.08 亿台币，环比增长 8.1%（指引 +5.6%）；2）毛利率、超预期：季度毛利率 31.3%（指引 30%）；3）产能利用率、超预期：季度产能利用率 103% 左右（指引 100%）；4）晶圆付运量、超预期：季度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021072921290879d9cb31&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f01e4b782ba393cb7794f7764a5d7d90","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","SMI":"VanEck HIP Sustainable Muni ETF","00981":"中芯国际","UMC":"联电"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021072921290879d9cb31&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2155518882","content_text":"本文作者：长桥旗下海豚投研晶圆制造景气度持续，核心指标全面超指引预期。联电于2021年7月28日发布了公司 2021 年第二季度财报，核心指标如下：1）营收、超预期：实现营收 509.08 亿台币，环比增长 8.1%（指引 +5.6%）；2）毛利率、超预期：季度毛利率 31.3%（指引 30%）；3）产能利用率、超预期：季度产能利用率 103% 左右（指引 100%）；4）晶圆付运量、超预期：季度晶圆付运量（出货量）环比增长 2.9%（指引 2%）；5）晶圆出货均价、超预期：季度晶圆出货均价环比增长 5.1%（指引 3-4%）来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理从以上各核心指标超指引预期看，整体晶圆制造持续高景气。晶圆出货均价和产能利用率的高企，推动公司毛利率创 10 年历史新高。在晶圆付运量增长的情况下，产能利用率环比出现略微下降一个百分点，主要由于公司还在进一步产能扩充。即使在产能扩充的情况，联电季度内仍实现了 100%+ 的产能利用率，反应公司目前订单十分充足。具体来看：1）核心指标一：联电毛利率及成本背后溢出的 “行业高景气”21Q2联电毛利率达到 31.2%，来到 10 年历史新高。从环比层面看，毛利率增长了 4.7%，其主要来自于出货均价的提升。随着晶圆行业景气度的回暖，联电晶圆出货均价创近 3 年内的新高。再通过联电单片晶圆（等效 8 寸片）分析，环比层面上联电晶圆的固定成本（折旧摊销）和可变成本（其他制造费用）并没出现太多变化，那么晶圆出货均价的提高直接可以带动单片毛利的提升。价格和毛利率的明显提升，反应晶圆制造行业的高景气。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理2）核心指标二：晶圆付运量和产能利用率背后的 “行业高景气”21Q2联电产能利用率 103%，连续两个季度超过 100%。从环比层面，联电的产能利用率虽略有下滑，但是海豚君观察到公司的晶圆付运量环比提升，这是因为联电在季度内保持扩产的节奏。从历史数据看，由于半导体是个持续成长的行业，联电的产能从季度上反应也在不断扩充。21Q2联电大约有 4% 的扩产幅度，但公司仍取得了超过 100% 的产能利用率，侧面验证公司的订单充足。晶圆扩产情况下仍然满载，反应晶圆制造行业高景气。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理3）核心指标三：各制程节点背后折射出 12 寸成熟工艺的更高景气度21Q2联电各节点收入占比分析，40-65nm 和 65-90nm 制程收入占比环比提升 1%，28-40nm 制程收入占比环比下滑 2%。结合近期苹果财报会上 Timothy D. Cook 对芯片的看法，苹果方面对于芯片供应安全的关注，先进工艺并没有大的问题，传统制程的供应安全更为担心。再结合联电各节点（成熟40-65nm 和 65-90nm 制程收入占比提升）可以推断，40-90nm 的 12 寸成熟工艺表现得更为紧缺。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理面对全球增长的 12 寸晶圆需求，联电的 12 寸晶圆产能处于扩张周期。12 寸晶圆产能近 10 个季度以来基本呈现环比增长，本季度的环比增长更是达到 6%，产能扩充节奏领先于其他制程工艺。从联电的财报数据看，12 寸成熟工艺制程需求攀升，精准印证了海豚君之前的推断 “汽车芯片需求的增长迫使部分原 8 寸产品进行转单，12 寸晶圆部分产能承接 8 寸片的转单需求。对晶圆产能需求的增长，推升了行业产能利用率水平”。晶圆制造的紧张情况，在 12 寸成熟工艺平台尤为明显。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理中芯国际：大陆 “联电” 的正向增长本次联电的财报反映了整体晶圆制造行业的高景气：1）产能利用率：产能满载，超 100% 的产能利用率反应行业整体景气度高；2）晶圆出货均价：晶圆价格环比提升 5.1%，行业市场化定价属性反应整体行业出货价提升；3）成本结构：中芯国际的成本结构接近联电，毛利率有望抬升（类同于联电受出货价直接拉动）；4）产能结构：中芯国际具有大陆最大的 12 寸晶圆制造产能，公司和联电的产能中 12 寸晶圆占比都超 50%。在 12 寸成熟制程晶圆的高景气下，中芯国际和联电都将受益；5）国产替代的急迫性：在芯片制造国产化背景下，中国大陆 12 寸晶圆存在更为严重的供需差，目前仅有 2 家晶圆代工厂具备量产能力，而绝大部分的产能来自于中芯国际。中芯国际作为半导体行业的后来者，除了先进工艺，成熟工艺上落下的课也要补。联电的产能利用率反应了全球 12 寸成熟工艺的产能紧张情况，同时由于中国大陆本身存在巨大的供需差，产能紧张表现得更为明显。中芯国际作为中国大陆半导体的领军企业，不仅制程工艺领先，更是坐拥大陆最大的晶圆制造产能。在晶圆产能紧张、价格上涨受益的同时，中芯国际等也要把成熟工艺落下的课补上的任务。时势造英雄，国产半导体，东风渐来。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":947034506,"gmtCreate":1597147762005,"gmtModify":1704214598240,"author":{"id":"3445242862430146","authorId":"3445242862430146","name":"35行迹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/688797bcaa2a9f4aefce341feb9bc309","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3445242862430146","idStr":"3445242862430146"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"段永平嘴里的完全不懂就是 完全不靠谱😂","listText":"段永平嘴里的完全不懂就是 完全不靠谱😂","text":"段永平嘴里的完全不懂就是 完全不靠谱😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/947034506","repostId":"2058920095","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2058920095","pubTimestamp":1597127351,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2058920095?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-11 14:29","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"段永平谈做空跟谁学：中国很大 这点营业额成长比例不是不可能","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2058920095","media":"新浪科技","summary":"新浪科技讯 8月11日下午消息，步步高集团董事长段永平今日在网络平台上针对做空机构做空跟谁学发表了自己对做空的看法。他认为，中国很大，这点营业额的成长比例其实不是不可能的。段永平表示，他本人完全不了解","content":"<html><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>科技讯 8月11日下午消息，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002251\">步步高</a>集团董事长段永平今日在网络平台上针对做空机构做空<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>发表了自己对做空的看法。他认为，中国很大，这点营业额的成长比例其实不是不可能的。</p><p>段永平表示，他本人完全不了解跟谁学这家公司，但他建议“最好别做空哈”。</p><p><strong>以下为段永平全文：</strong></p><p>我有个邻居（没那么熟），是专门做做空生意的（我搞不懂怎么做哈），前段时间突然问我是否知道这家公司，因为好几个做空公司在做空这家公司，因为这家公司做假账，理由是因为他们的成长太快了。</p><p>我真的让我们教育电子的同事去了解了一下，得出的结论是：这个成长在这个环境下看不出任何明显不符合逻辑的地方。于是我告诫邻居，中国很大，这点营业额的成长比例其实不是不可能的。那时候股价好像是30-40之间。</p><p>前两三个礼拜打球又碰到邻居，问起他是否还空着呢？他说是的，他们的成长太不可思议了，肯定是做假账。我看了一眼股价，那天大概80左右。</p><p>我完全不了解跟谁学这家公司，这里我想说的是：最好别做空哈！</p><p>这个世界有很多你不懂的事情，为什么要跟自己过不去？</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平谈做空跟谁学：中国很大 这点营业额成长比例不是不可能</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n段永平谈做空跟谁学：中国很大 这点营业额成长比例不是不可能\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-11 14:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://tech.sina.com.cn/i/2020-08-11/doc-iivhvpwy0419906.shtml><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>新浪科技讯 8月11日下午消息，步步高集团董事长段永平今日在网络平台上针对做空机构做空跟谁学发表了自己对做空的看法。他认为，中国很大，这点营业额的成长比例其实不是不可能的。段永平表示，他本人完全不了解跟谁学这家公司，但他建议“最好别做空哈”。以下为段永平全文：我有个邻居（没那么熟），是专门做做空生意的（我搞不懂怎么做哈），前段时间突然问我是否知道这家公司，因为好几个做空公司在做空这家公司，因为这家...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://tech.sina.com.cn/i/2020-08-11/doc-iivhvpwy0419906.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94cb9700f3f29d04bf8b12518f8d575f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://tech.sina.com.cn/i/2020-08-11/doc-iivhvpwy0419906.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2058920095","content_text":"新浪科技讯 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