少虎的个人主页 - 老虎社区

少虎

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IP属地：江苏

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2022-08-18

s a d？uvw🎿

持茅躺赚的时代过去了，不会再有“全面牛市”了？

2021-02-24

暴跌吧哈哈哈哈哈哈

@Jaacob:$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$just wait patiently. Buy at a position which is maybe the highest point.

2021-02-22

财报大跌

@Jaacob:$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$just wait patiently. Buy at a position which is maybe the highest point.

2021-02-18

等着暴跌吧傻子

@Sam9988:$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$我又再看了一下Jumia, 其实几十指标相当不错，估计也就再调整几天，我猜庄家上面的目标应该是一百，有兴趣的小朋友可以在61元附近建仓买入

2021-01-05

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$非洲虽然很有发展潜力，但是现在为时过早！目前目标价25美金

2020-12-28

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$开始割韭菜了，韭菜们

2020-12-28

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$非洲阿里开始崩盘了。

2020-12-21

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$暴跌开始吧[开心] [开心] [开心]

2020-12-18

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$非洲电商最大的问题还是基建问题，当基建解决了，会有大量的新公司，砸钱打市场。这只股不稳定性太多了！冲了很多次，冲不上40，目前崩盘的几率非常大。我就不多说了，有几个人能做到长期价值投资，不可能的，随便一个市场波动就会有大量的人逃跑。劝各位虎友们趁早逃跑吧。人的贪婪是无限大的。

2020-12-01

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$贪婪的人总会觉得一只未知股会无线上涨

2020-11-25

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$割韭菜了

2020-11-25

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$割韭菜了

2020-11-25

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$割韭菜了

2020-11-24

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$割韭菜了

2020-11-24

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$大跌开始了兄弟们

2020-11-24

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$机构疯狂的在炒热，这只股即将迎来下一次的暴跌。

2020-11-24

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$崩塌的前夕。当大家疯狂的时候，就要恐惧。

2020-11-21

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$机构套现这才刚刚开始

2020-11-20

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$机构拉升，割韭菜

2020-11-19

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$做空好时机

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11:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"持茅躺赚的时代过去了，不会再有“全面牛市”了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171380300","media":"格隆汇","summary":"成长才是投资底色。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在2015-2016年股灾熔断之后，A股各行业的龙头核心资产迎来了持续长达5年的大牛市，虽然2018年有过一些波折，但整体无伤大雅。</p><p>核心资产的超级牛市行情转折点发生在2021年2月18日，见顶之后不断下挫，少则40-50%，多则70-80%。而以新能源为代表的新能源持续火热至今，仍然没有任何切换轮动的迹象。</p><p>什么是冰火两重天？这就是。</p><p>01白马雷潮</p><p>218以来，很多传统行业的茅牛纷纷重挫暴雷，包括房地产、医疗以及消费。这些都是过去诞生非常多牛股的行业。</p><p>从2002年实施土地招拍挂制度以来，房地产开启了轰轰烈烈长达20年的黄金发展期。但每一个行业都会经历初创期、成长期、成熟期、衰退期。很显然，当前的房地产已经迈过成熟期，正式跨入衰退期。30年未有之景象，房地产和建筑业对于GDP的累计同比贡献率已经在今年转负了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1ee0c25abfff224d1f6b5dd6b16089d\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>然而过去20年，房地产产业链诞生了太多太多大牛股。万科，江湖一哥，曾经为投资者创造过超100倍的回报率，但英雄迟暮，现在离优秀越来越远。从去年3月至今，万科跌了将近50%，未来可能再也回不去35元的历史高位了。</p><p>房地产上下游产业链非常长。上游绑定水泥、建材等，下游绑定家电、厨电、家居、家装等。</p><p>水泥核心龙头海螺水泥股价从56.8元跌至目前的32.76元，跌幅超过42%，市值蒸发逾1200亿元。建材龙头北新建材从55.12元跌至目前的27.23元，跌幅超过50%。而过去这两家龙头曾创造过4200%、5200%的回报率。</p><p>下游家电已于2018年触顶萎缩。2021年，国内空调市场零售量为4689万台，同比下滑8.7%，较2018年大幅下滑18%。去年零售额为1527亿元，同比下滑1.2%，较2018年大幅下滑24%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4cc57013a30ef62be591e13345be35\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>空调只是家电行业的一个缩影。彩电、冰箱、洗衣机、厨房电器、热水器、小家电等主要生活家电都已饱和。空调龙头大白马被市场抛弃，就连小熊电器这种黑马也被杀的鼻青脸肿，股价高位回撤近70%。</p><p>还有过去被市场极度看好的东方雨虹，现在颓势已显，股价从63.72亿元跌至目前的37.5元，跌幅高达41%。</p><p>除了地产，还有医药行业被市场杀的非常惨烈，包括创新药、医疗器械、疫苗、CXO、医疗服务等等。</p><p>恒瑞医药、长春高新、康泰生物、智飞生物、欧普康视、康龙化成、凯莱英、健帆生物、华兰生物、通策医疗等数十家令人耳熟能详的公司过去均是超级牛股，但如今少则跌50%，多则跌超80%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62234c5610dc4fd2821f8782c986463b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>过去，中国卫生总费用从2000年的4586亿元增长至2020年的72175亿元。20年时间，医疗费用翻了将近15倍，年复合增长14.78%，远超GDP的增速。而这样的增长盛景，未来并不可持续。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599fbf967ed1c90885a1b8610c259697\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>今年1月10日，国常会明确表示要推动集中带量采购常态化、制度化并提速扩面，持续降低医药价格，让患者受益。</p><p>原来，市场幻想着国产化程度低的医药领域会是集采的避风港，中短期内不会被集采。但事实证明，集采的推进比预想的更快。今年4月，福建牵头的开展电生理和腔镜吻合器采购联盟集采，纳入2022年拟重点推进的联盟集采。</p><p>7月11日，国家组织骨科脊柱类耗材集中带量采购公告显示，本次集中带量采购产品为骨科脊柱类医用耗材，根据手术类型、手术部位、入路方式等组建产品系统进行采购，共分为14个产品系统类别。这意味着几乎所有脊柱产品都要被集采。</p><p>今年7月底，国家医保局办公室印发《关于开展口腔种植收费和医疗服务价格调查登记工作的通知》，登记范围包含公立以及非公立医疗机构，确保“横到边、竖到底、全覆盖”。</p><p>目前，安徽蚌埠市已经先行试点，实行种植牙项目限价收费。其种植牙医疗服务项目收费，从均价10000元/颗左右，降至2200元/颗以下，最高降幅82%以上。如果接下来国家集采方案想推动中高端种植牙价格大幅降低，以通策医疗为代表的民营医疗机构的盈利能力会受到显著冲击。</p><p>8月初，江西省牵头开展肝功生化检测试剂信息申报工作，覆盖26种被检测物资，覆盖22省市，集采规模相当于70%中国省份。至此，IVD领域也无避风港，大超市场预期。</p><p><b>在集采推进的同时，医疗改革也持续推进。</b>去年10月15日，国务院医改领导小组印发《关于深入推广福建省三明市经验深化医药卫生体制改革的实施意见》。医改意见一锤定音，或将深刻改变整个医药行业的运行逻辑。</p><p>“三明模式”严控过度检查、过度用药、过度治疗，实现了“公立医院回归公益性，医生回归看病角色，医患间回归信任”。直白的讲，三明模式实现了财政降压、患者减负、医生增收“三赢”局面，医药、器械、医疗服务等庞大的利益集团将成为输家。</p><p>全国推广三明模式，正式吹响了集结号。如果未来落地执行与推进良好的话，会类似反垄断之互联网的深远影响。</p><p>一方面集采提速扩面，会冲击现有医药医疗上市公司的毛利率，另一方面随着三明模式的推广，会减少非必要的过度用药治疗，量上会减少（改革成功的话）。量价齐杀，医药医疗公司的盈利能力会被大大削弱。这是大医药行业从去年7月以来一路暴跌至今的重要逻辑。</p><p>有投资者拉出了医药ETF的走势图，期盼着触底反转，演绎过去的规律。<b>在我看来，惯性投资普通投资者是亏钱的重要原因之一，过去优秀不能代表未来优秀啊。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d7dd62c284f2567e75e54dbe3f99ac7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>此外，油茅、酱茅、安防茅、火锅茅的股价表现也都陷入了泥潭，让投资者深感绝望。</p><p>02成长为王</p><p>过去很多年，A股始终在科技（成长）、消费、周期、医药、金融等大类板块中轮动上演超级行情。<b>而从去年218开始，市场始终扎堆科技，更加坚定了成长才是王道的共识。</b></p><p>从股票定价逻辑来看，成长才是价值投资的底色，而不是所谓龙头，所谓核心资产大票。</p><p>商业的目的是赚钱，好的商业模式就是能够源源不断赚更多的钱。从股票定价逻辑来看，就是源源不断生产自由现金流，折现过来就是越来越有资本价值（DCF估值模型)。自由现金流贴现的基本公式如下：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae4a12053993ff5e776b5fd0de8cb822\" tg-width=\"513\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>（来源：百度百科）</p><p>企业现有价值大小，主要跟两个变量有关，一个是永续经营下现金流总和，一个是折现率。前者要高，就要求上市公司保持持续的利润增长，即公司的成长性与稳健性。后者=无风险收益率+信用利差+经营风险利差+……这跟公司所处市场竞争地位、盈利能力、资产负债情况等密切相关。一般而言，公司越优秀，折现率越低，经营与盈利质量越高。</p><p><b>从定价逻辑来看，一家公司的资本价值是否持续增长，关键在于持续的成长性。记得，不要只看短期1、2年的增长。</b></p><p>未来，投资的大方向要拥抱成长股，这是由股票底层逻辑决定的。过去很多传统行业，包括房地产、家电、水泥、银行、调味品、食用油、乳制品等等，已经从成长期走入成熟期，乃至衰退期，市场规模从增量变为存量，乃至大幅萎缩。那么这些行业的龙头们也从小公司变成大公司，也已经走过成长期，未来业绩增速大幅放缓，乃至不增长，市场给予得估值越来越低才是正常的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fc4138acdf3157d96047b028e860bb6\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>这些年，中国经济也从高速增长变为高质量增长（中低速），未来不再依靠房地产。未来经济增长引擎无它，只有两个：一是消费，一是科技。后者是依靠技术提高产出效率，提升产业的附加值，附加值高了居民收入才能增长，才会给消费带来更大的增长。</p><p>从欧美历史发展进程来看，消费后期必然成为经济增长的主力。2020年5月，中央政治局常委会会议首次提出，要加快形成以国内大循环为主、国际国内双循环相互协调的发展格局。这其实也为未来中国经济的增长定了调。</p><p><b>拥抱所谓核心资产躺赚的时代已经成为过去式。未来大的投资机会聚焦在科技与消费。</b>对待科技成长，市场非常慷慨给予了非常高的估值，且行情持续上涨了3年时间。消费呢，要有成长性的细分赛道才会有良好机会。不要惯性持有所谓茅牛，而不知商业世界沧海桑田的巨变。</p><p>03尾声</p><p>2015年全面牛市之后，A股再难有全面牛了，结构性牛市与熊市恐怕会是常态。因为我们的经济体，本身就是有产业兴，有产业落，有公司兴，有公司落，有产业正处在顺周期，有产业正处在逆周期里，普涨是奢望，分化才是常态。这种局面，对于市场投资者会很难。因为没有多少人能够灵活做到在不同行业切换来切换去。</p><p>并且，中国很多行业很多公司已经变大变强，市值已经很大了，提供良好回报率的时间窗口其实已经过去了。<b>未来，能够有很大增量的行业会越来越小，交易也会越来越拥挤，投资赚钱的难度也会越大。</b>这需要投资者做好充分心理准备。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>持茅躺赚的时代过去了，不会再有“全面牛市”了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n持茅躺赚的时代过去了，不会再有“全面牛市”了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-18 11:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/546222><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在2015-2016年股灾熔断之后，A股各行业的龙头核心资产迎来了持续长达5年的大牛市，虽然2018年有过一些波折，但整体无伤大雅。核心资产的超级牛市行情转折点发生在2021年2月18日，见顶之后不断下挫，少则40-50%，多则70-80%。而以新能源为代表的新能源持续火热至今，仍然没有任何切换轮动的迹象。什么是冰火两重天？这就是。01白马雷潮218以来，很多传统行业的茅牛纷纷重挫暴雷，包括房地产...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/546222\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342bdaa24f11a7e9af00a6ff6b22a4db","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/546222","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1171380300","content_text":"在2015-2016年股灾熔断之后，A股各行业的龙头核心资产迎来了持续长达5年的大牛市，虽然2018年有过一些波折，但整体无伤大雅。核心资产的超级牛市行情转折点发生在2021年2月18日，见顶之后不断下挫，少则40-50%，多则70-80%。而以新能源为代表的新能源持续火热至今，仍然没有任何切换轮动的迹象。什么是冰火两重天？这就是。01白马雷潮218以来，很多传统行业的茅牛纷纷重挫暴雷，包括房地产、医疗以及消费。这些都是过去诞生非常多牛股的行业。从2002年实施土地招拍挂制度以来，房地产开启了轰轰烈烈长达20年的黄金发展期。但每一个行业都会经历初创期、成长期、成熟期、衰退期。很显然，当前的房地产已经迈过成熟期，正式跨入衰退期。30年未有之景象，房地产和建筑业对于GDP的累计同比贡献率已经在今年转负了。然而过去20年，房地产产业链诞生了太多太多大牛股。万科，江湖一哥，曾经为投资者创造过超100倍的回报率，但英雄迟暮，现在离优秀越来越远。从去年3月至今，万科跌了将近50%，未来可能再也回不去35元的历史高位了。房地产上下游产业链非常长。上游绑定水泥、建材等，下游绑定家电、厨电、家居、家装等。水泥核心龙头海螺水泥股价从56.8元跌至目前的32.76元，跌幅超过42%，市值蒸发逾1200亿元。建材龙头北新建材从55.12元跌至目前的27.23元，跌幅超过50%。而过去这两家龙头曾创造过4200%、5200%的回报率。下游家电已于2018年触顶萎缩。2021年，国内空调市场零售量为4689万台，同比下滑8.7%，较2018年大幅下滑18%。去年零售额为1527亿元，同比下滑1.2%，较2018年大幅下滑24%。空调只是家电行业的一个缩影。彩电、冰箱、洗衣机、厨房电器、热水器、小家电等主要生活家电都已饱和。空调龙头大白马被市场抛弃，就连小熊电器这种黑马也被杀的鼻青脸肿，股价高位回撤近70%。还有过去被市场极度看好的东方雨虹，现在颓势已显，股价从63.72亿元跌至目前的37.5元，跌幅高达41%。除了地产，还有医药行业被市场杀的非常惨烈，包括创新药、医疗器械、疫苗、CXO、医疗服务等等。恒瑞医药、长春高新、康泰生物、智飞生物、欧普康视、康龙化成、凯莱英、健帆生物、华兰生物、通策医疗等数十家令人耳熟能详的公司过去均是超级牛股，但如今少则跌50%，多则跌超80%。过去，中国卫生总费用从2000年的4586亿元增长至2020年的72175亿元。20年时间，医疗费用翻了将近15倍，年复合增长14.78%，远超GDP的增速。而这样的增长盛景，未来并不可持续。今年1月10日，国常会明确表示要推动集中带量采购常态化、制度化并提速扩面，持续降低医药价格，让患者受益。原来，市场幻想着国产化程度低的医药领域会是集采的避风港，中短期内不会被集采。但事实证明，集采的推进比预想的更快。今年4月，福建牵头的开展电生理和腔镜吻合器采购联盟集采，纳入2022年拟重点推进的联盟集采。7月11日，国家组织骨科脊柱类耗材集中带量采购公告显示，本次集中带量采购产品为骨科脊柱类医用耗材，根据手术类型、手术部位、入路方式等组建产品系统进行采购，共分为14个产品系统类别。这意味着几乎所有脊柱产品都要被集采。今年7月底，国家医保局办公室印发《关于开展口腔种植收费和医疗服务价格调查登记工作的通知》，登记范围包含公立以及非公立医疗机构，确保“横到边、竖到底、全覆盖”。目前，安徽蚌埠市已经先行试点，实行种植牙项目限价收费。其种植牙医疗服务项目收费，从均价10000元/颗左右，降至2200元/颗以下，最高降幅82%以上。如果接下来国家集采方案想推动中高端种植牙价格大幅降低，以通策医疗为代表的民营医疗机构的盈利能力会受到显著冲击。8月初，江西省牵头开展肝功生化检测试剂信息申报工作，覆盖26种被检测物资，覆盖22省市，集采规模相当于70%中国省份。至此，IVD领域也无避风港，大超市场预期。在集采推进的同时，医疗改革也持续推进。去年10月15日，国务院医改领导小组印发《关于深入推广福建省三明市经验深化医药卫生体制改革的实施意见》。医改意见一锤定音，或将深刻改变整个医药行业的运行逻辑。“三明模式”严控过度检查、过度用药、过度治疗，实现了“公立医院回归公益性，医生回归看病角色，医患间回归信任”。直白的讲，三明模式实现了财政降压、患者减负、医生增收“三赢”局面，医药、器械、医疗服务等庞大的利益集团将成为输家。全国推广三明模式，正式吹响了集结号。如果未来落地执行与推进良好的话，会类似反垄断之互联网的深远影响。一方面集采提速扩面，会冲击现有医药医疗上市公司的毛利率，另一方面随着三明模式的推广，会减少非必要的过度用药治疗，量上会减少（改革成功的话）。量价齐杀，医药医疗公司的盈利能力会被大大削弱。这是大医药行业从去年7月以来一路暴跌至今的重要逻辑。有投资者拉出了医药ETF的走势图，期盼着触底反转，演绎过去的规律。在我看来，惯性投资普通投资者是亏钱的重要原因之一，过去优秀不能代表未来优秀啊。此外，油茅、酱茅、安防茅、火锅茅的股价表现也都陷入了泥潭，让投资者深感绝望。02成长为王过去很多年，A股始终在科技（成长）、消费、周期、医药、金融等大类板块中轮动上演超级行情。而从去年218开始，市场始终扎堆科技，更加坚定了成长才是王道的共识。从股票定价逻辑来看，成长才是价值投资的底色，而不是所谓龙头，所谓核心资产大票。商业的目的是赚钱，好的商业模式就是能够源源不断赚更多的钱。从股票定价逻辑来看，就是源源不断生产自由现金流，折现过来就是越来越有资本价值（DCF估值模型)。自由现金流贴现的基本公式如下：（来源：百度百科）企业现有价值大小，主要跟两个变量有关，一个是永续经营下现金流总和，一个是折现率。前者要高，就要求上市公司保持持续的利润增长，即公司的成长性与稳健性。后者=无风险收益率+信用利差+经营风险利差+……这跟公司所处市场竞争地位、盈利能力、资产负债情况等密切相关。一般而言，公司越优秀，折现率越低，经营与盈利质量越高。从定价逻辑来看，一家公司的资本价值是否持续增长，关键在于持续的成长性。记得，不要只看短期1、2年的增长。未来，投资的大方向要拥抱成长股，这是由股票底层逻辑决定的。过去很多传统行业，包括房地产、家电、水泥、银行、调味品、食用油、乳制品等等，已经从成长期走入成熟期，乃至衰退期，市场规模从增量变为存量，乃至大幅萎缩。那么这些行业的龙头们也从小公司变成大公司，也已经走过成长期，未来业绩增速大幅放缓，乃至不增长，市场给予得估值越来越低才是正常的。这些年，中国经济也从高速增长变为高质量增长（中低速），未来不再依靠房地产。未来经济增长引擎无它，只有两个：一是消费，一是科技。后者是依靠技术提高产出效率，提升产业的附加值，附加值高了居民收入才能增长，才会给消费带来更大的增长。从欧美历史发展进程来看，消费后期必然成为经济增长的主力。2020年5月，中央政治局常委会会议首次提出，要加快形成以国内大循环为主、国际国内双循环相互协调的发展格局。这其实也为未来中国经济的增长定了调。拥抱所谓核心资产躺赚的时代已经成为过去式。未来大的投资机会聚焦在科技与消费。对待科技成长，市场非常慷慨给予了非常高的估值，且行情持续上涨了3年时间。消费呢，要有成长性的细分赛道才会有良好机会。不要惯性持有所谓茅牛，而不知商业世界沧海桑田的巨变。03尾声2015年全面牛市之后，A股再难有全面牛了，结构性牛市与熊市恐怕会是常态。因为我们的经济体，本身就是有产业兴，有产业落，有公司兴，有公司落，有产业正处在顺周期，有产业正处在逆周期里，普涨是奢望，分化才是常态。这种局面，对于市场投资者会很难。因为没有多少人能够灵活做到在不同行业切换来切换去。并且，中国很多行业很多公司已经变大变强，市值已经很大了，提供良好回报率的时间窗口其实已经过去了。未来，能够有很大增量的行业会越来越小，交易也会越来越拥挤，投资赚钱的难度也会越大。这需要投资者做好充分心理准备。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363441791,"gmtCreate":1614167660713,"gmtModify":1614167869631,"author":{"id":"3442215103010362","authorId":"3442215103010362","name":"少虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77a0e60eee333977f5947f6695e7d026","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"暴跌吧哈哈哈哈哈哈","listText":"暴跌吧哈哈哈哈哈哈","text":"暴跌吧哈哈哈哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363441791","repostId":"360686270","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":360686270,"gmtCreate":1613904824590,"gmtModify":1631886620660,"author":{"id":"3567051568168326","authorId":"3567051568168326","name":"Jaacob","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8f6e3b5c5f17a1e75331be3c6f5845","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>just wait patiently. Buy at a position which is maybe the highest point.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>just wait patiently. Buy at a position which is maybe the highest point.&nbsp;","text":"$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$just wait patiently. 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Buy at a position which is maybe the highest point.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>just wait patiently. Buy at a position which is maybe the highest point.&nbsp;","text":"$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$just wait patiently. Buy at a position which is maybe the highest point.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4608a8c0d0cd6a7a0d782e2513df519c","width":"1170","height":"2260"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360686270","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384049288,"gmtCreate":1613597706844,"gmtModify":1613613138346,"author":{"id":"3442215103010362","authorId":"3442215103010362","name":"少虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77a0e60eee333977f5947f6695e7d026","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"等着暴跌吧傻子","listText":"等着暴跌吧傻子","text":"等着暴跌吧傻子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384049288","repostId":"385514705","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":385514705,"gmtCreate":1613563758607,"gmtModify":1613563758607,"author":{"id":"3516789814374990","authorId":"3516789814374990","name":"Sam9988","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15da5f881cda4d0e5b9e69ec422999dc","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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AG(JMIA)$割韭菜了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393196536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":399066583,"gmtCreate":1605884366042,"gmtModify":1703840299163,"author":{"id":"3442215103010362","authorId":"3442215103010362","name":"少虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77a0e60eee333977f5947f6695e7d026","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>机构拉升，割韭菜","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>机构拉升，割韭菜","text":"$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$机构拉升，割韭菜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399066583","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687160790,"gmtCreate":1660812787914,"gmtModify":1660812787914,"author":{"id":"3442215103010362","authorId":"3442215103010362","name":"少虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77a0e60eee333977f5947f6695e7d026","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"s a d？uvw🎿","listText":"s a d？uvw🎿","text":"s a d？uvw🎿","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/687160790","repostId":"1171380300","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171380300","pubTimestamp":1660792812,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171380300?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-18 11:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"持茅躺赚的时代过去了，不会再有“全面牛市”了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171380300","media":"格隆汇","summary":"成长才是投资底色。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在2015-2016年股灾熔断之后，A股各行业的龙头核心资产迎来了持续长达5年的大牛市，虽然2018年有过一些波折，但整体无伤大雅。</p><p>核心资产的超级牛市行情转折点发生在2021年2月18日，见顶之后不断下挫，少则40-50%，多则70-80%。而以新能源为代表的新能源持续火热至今，仍然没有任何切换轮动的迹象。</p><p>什么是冰火两重天？这就是。</p><p>01白马雷潮</p><p>218以来，很多传统行业的茅牛纷纷重挫暴雷，包括房地产、医疗以及消费。这些都是过去诞生非常多牛股的行业。</p><p>从2002年实施土地招拍挂制度以来，房地产开启了轰轰烈烈长达20年的黄金发展期。但每一个行业都会经历初创期、成长期、成熟期、衰退期。很显然，当前的房地产已经迈过成熟期，正式跨入衰退期。30年未有之景象，房地产和建筑业对于GDP的累计同比贡献率已经在今年转负了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1ee0c25abfff224d1f6b5dd6b16089d\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>然而过去20年，房地产产业链诞生了太多太多大牛股。万科，江湖一哥，曾经为投资者创造过超100倍的回报率，但英雄迟暮，现在离优秀越来越远。从去年3月至今，万科跌了将近50%，未来可能再也回不去35元的历史高位了。</p><p>房地产上下游产业链非常长。上游绑定水泥、建材等，下游绑定家电、厨电、家居、家装等。</p><p>水泥核心龙头海螺水泥股价从56.8元跌至目前的32.76元，跌幅超过42%，市值蒸发逾1200亿元。建材龙头北新建材从55.12元跌至目前的27.23元，跌幅超过50%。而过去这两家龙头曾创造过4200%、5200%的回报率。</p><p>下游家电已于2018年触顶萎缩。2021年，国内空调市场零售量为4689万台，同比下滑8.7%，较2018年大幅下滑18%。去年零售额为1527亿元，同比下滑1.2%，较2018年大幅下滑24%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4cc57013a30ef62be591e13345be35\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>空调只是家电行业的一个缩影。彩电、冰箱、洗衣机、厨房电器、热水器、小家电等主要生活家电都已饱和。空调龙头大白马被市场抛弃，就连小熊电器这种黑马也被杀的鼻青脸肿，股价高位回撤近70%。</p><p>还有过去被市场极度看好的东方雨虹，现在颓势已显，股价从63.72亿元跌至目前的37.5元，跌幅高达41%。</p><p>除了地产，还有医药行业被市场杀的非常惨烈，包括创新药、医疗器械、疫苗、CXO、医疗服务等等。</p><p>恒瑞医药、长春高新、康泰生物、智飞生物、欧普康视、康龙化成、凯莱英、健帆生物、华兰生物、通策医疗等数十家令人耳熟能详的公司过去均是超级牛股，但如今少则跌50%，多则跌超80%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62234c5610dc4fd2821f8782c986463b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>过去，中国卫生总费用从2000年的4586亿元增长至2020年的72175亿元。20年时间，医疗费用翻了将近15倍，年复合增长14.78%，远超GDP的增速。而这样的增长盛景，未来并不可持续。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599fbf967ed1c90885a1b8610c259697\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>今年1月10日，国常会明确表示要推动集中带量采购常态化、制度化并提速扩面，持续降低医药价格，让患者受益。</p><p>原来，市场幻想着国产化程度低的医药领域会是集采的避风港，中短期内不会被集采。但事实证明，集采的推进比预想的更快。今年4月，福建牵头的开展电生理和腔镜吻合器采购联盟集采，纳入2022年拟重点推进的联盟集采。</p><p>7月11日，国家组织骨科脊柱类耗材集中带量采购公告显示，本次集中带量采购产品为骨科脊柱类医用耗材，根据手术类型、手术部位、入路方式等组建产品系统进行采购，共分为14个产品系统类别。这意味着几乎所有脊柱产品都要被集采。</p><p>今年7月底，国家医保局办公室印发《关于开展口腔种植收费和医疗服务价格调查登记工作的通知》，登记范围包含公立以及非公立医疗机构，确保“横到边、竖到底、全覆盖”。</p><p>目前，安徽蚌埠市已经先行试点，实行种植牙项目限价收费。其种植牙医疗服务项目收费，从均价10000元/颗左右，降至2200元/颗以下，最高降幅82%以上。如果接下来国家集采方案想推动中高端种植牙价格大幅降低，以通策医疗为代表的民营医疗机构的盈利能力会受到显著冲击。</p><p>8月初，江西省牵头开展肝功生化检测试剂信息申报工作，覆盖26种被检测物资，覆盖22省市，集采规模相当于70%中国省份。至此，IVD领域也无避风港，大超市场预期。</p><p><b>在集采推进的同时，医疗改革也持续推进。</b>去年10月15日，国务院医改领导小组印发《关于深入推广福建省三明市经验深化医药卫生体制改革的实施意见》。医改意见一锤定音，或将深刻改变整个医药行业的运行逻辑。</p><p>“三明模式”严控过度检查、过度用药、过度治疗，实现了“公立医院回归公益性，医生回归看病角色，医患间回归信任”。直白的讲，三明模式实现了财政降压、患者减负、医生增收“三赢”局面，医药、器械、医疗服务等庞大的利益集团将成为输家。</p><p>全国推广三明模式，正式吹响了集结号。如果未来落地执行与推进良好的话，会类似反垄断之互联网的深远影响。</p><p>一方面集采提速扩面，会冲击现有医药医疗上市公司的毛利率，另一方面随着三明模式的推广，会减少非必要的过度用药治疗，量上会减少（改革成功的话）。量价齐杀，医药医疗公司的盈利能力会被大大削弱。这是大医药行业从去年7月以来一路暴跌至今的重要逻辑。</p><p>有投资者拉出了医药ETF的走势图，期盼着触底反转，演绎过去的规律。<b>在我看来，惯性投资普通投资者是亏钱的重要原因之一，过去优秀不能代表未来优秀啊。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d7dd62c284f2567e75e54dbe3f99ac7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>此外，油茅、酱茅、安防茅、火锅茅的股价表现也都陷入了泥潭，让投资者深感绝望。</p><p>02成长为王</p><p>过去很多年，A股始终在科技（成长）、消费、周期、医药、金融等大类板块中轮动上演超级行情。<b>而从去年218开始，市场始终扎堆科技，更加坚定了成长才是王道的共识。</b></p><p>从股票定价逻辑来看，成长才是价值投资的底色，而不是所谓龙头，所谓核心资产大票。</p><p>商业的目的是赚钱，好的商业模式就是能够源源不断赚更多的钱。从股票定价逻辑来看，就是源源不断生产自由现金流，折现过来就是越来越有资本价值（DCF估值模型)。自由现金流贴现的基本公式如下：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae4a12053993ff5e776b5fd0de8cb822\" tg-width=\"513\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>（来源：百度百科）</p><p>企业现有价值大小，主要跟两个变量有关，一个是永续经营下现金流总和，一个是折现率。前者要高，就要求上市公司保持持续的利润增长，即公司的成长性与稳健性。后者=无风险收益率+信用利差+经营风险利差+……这跟公司所处市场竞争地位、盈利能力、资产负债情况等密切相关。一般而言，公司越优秀，折现率越低，经营与盈利质量越高。</p><p><b>从定价逻辑来看，一家公司的资本价值是否持续增长，关键在于持续的成长性。记得，不要只看短期1、2年的增长。</b></p><p>未来，投资的大方向要拥抱成长股，这是由股票底层逻辑决定的。过去很多传统行业，包括房地产、家电、水泥、银行、调味品、食用油、乳制品等等，已经从成长期走入成熟期，乃至衰退期，市场规模从增量变为存量，乃至大幅萎缩。那么这些行业的龙头们也从小公司变成大公司，也已经走过成长期，未来业绩增速大幅放缓，乃至不增长，市场给予得估值越来越低才是正常的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fc4138acdf3157d96047b028e860bb6\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>这些年，中国经济也从高速增长变为高质量增长（中低速），未来不再依靠房地产。未来经济增长引擎无它，只有两个：一是消费，一是科技。后者是依靠技术提高产出效率，提升产业的附加值，附加值高了居民收入才能增长，才会给消费带来更大的增长。</p><p>从欧美历史发展进程来看，消费后期必然成为经济增长的主力。2020年5月，中央政治局常委会会议首次提出，要加快形成以国内大循环为主、国际国内双循环相互协调的发展格局。这其实也为未来中国经济的增长定了调。</p><p><b>拥抱所谓核心资产躺赚的时代已经成为过去式。未来大的投资机会聚焦在科技与消费。</b>对待科技成长，市场非常慷慨给予了非常高的估值，且行情持续上涨了3年时间。消费呢，要有成长性的细分赛道才会有良好机会。不要惯性持有所谓茅牛，而不知商业世界沧海桑田的巨变。</p><p>03尾声</p><p>2015年全面牛市之后，A股再难有全面牛了，结构性牛市与熊市恐怕会是常态。因为我们的经济体，本身就是有产业兴，有产业落，有公司兴，有公司落，有产业正处在顺周期，有产业正处在逆周期里，普涨是奢望，分化才是常态。这种局面，对于市场投资者会很难。因为没有多少人能够灵活做到在不同行业切换来切换去。</p><p>并且，中国很多行业很多公司已经变大变强，市值已经很大了，提供良好回报率的时间窗口其实已经过去了。<b>未来，能够有很大增量的行业会越来越小，交易也会越来越拥挤，投资赚钱的难度也会越大。</b>这需要投资者做好充分心理准备。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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}\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n持茅躺赚的时代过去了，不会再有“全面牛市”了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-18 11:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/546222><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在2015-2016年股灾熔断之后，A股各行业的龙头核心资产迎来了持续长达5年的大牛市，虽然2018年有过一些波折，但整体无伤大雅。核心资产的超级牛市行情转折点发生在2021年2月18日，见顶之后不断下挫，少则40-50%，多则70-80%。而以新能源为代表的新能源持续火热至今，仍然没有任何切换轮动的迹象。什么是冰火两重天？这就是。01白马雷潮218以来，很多传统行业的茅牛纷纷重挫暴雷，包括房地产...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/546222\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342bdaa24f11a7e9af00a6ff6b22a4db","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/546222","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1171380300","content_text":"在2015-2016年股灾熔断之后，A股各行业的龙头核心资产迎来了持续长达5年的大牛市，虽然2018年有过一些波折，但整体无伤大雅。核心资产的超级牛市行情转折点发生在2021年2月18日，见顶之后不断下挫，少则40-50%，多则70-80%。而以新能源为代表的新能源持续火热至今，仍然没有任何切换轮动的迹象。什么是冰火两重天？这就是。01白马雷潮218以来，很多传统行业的茅牛纷纷重挫暴雷，包括房地产、医疗以及消费。这些都是过去诞生非常多牛股的行业。从2002年实施土地招拍挂制度以来，房地产开启了轰轰烈烈长达20年的黄金发展期。但每一个行业都会经历初创期、成长期、成熟期、衰退期。很显然，当前的房地产已经迈过成熟期，正式跨入衰退期。30年未有之景象，房地产和建筑业对于GDP的累计同比贡献率已经在今年转负了。然而过去20年，房地产产业链诞生了太多太多大牛股。万科，江湖一哥，曾经为投资者创造过超100倍的回报率，但英雄迟暮，现在离优秀越来越远。从去年3月至今，万科跌了将近50%，未来可能再也回不去35元的历史高位了。房地产上下游产业链非常长。上游绑定水泥、建材等，下游绑定家电、厨电、家居、家装等。水泥核心龙头海螺水泥股价从56.8元跌至目前的32.76元，跌幅超过42%，市值蒸发逾1200亿元。建材龙头北新建材从55.12元跌至目前的27.23元，跌幅超过50%。而过去这两家龙头曾创造过4200%、5200%的回报率。下游家电已于2018年触顶萎缩。2021年，国内空调市场零售量为4689万台，同比下滑8.7%，较2018年大幅下滑18%。去年零售额为1527亿元，同比下滑1.2%，较2018年大幅下滑24%。空调只是家电行业的一个缩影。彩电、冰箱、洗衣机、厨房电器、热水器、小家电等主要生活家电都已饱和。空调龙头大白马被市场抛弃，就连小熊电器这种黑马也被杀的鼻青脸肿，股价高位回撤近70%。还有过去被市场极度看好的东方雨虹，现在颓势已显，股价从63.72亿元跌至目前的37.5元，跌幅高达41%。除了地产，还有医药行业被市场杀的非常惨烈，包括创新药、医疗器械、疫苗、CXO、医疗服务等等。恒瑞医药、长春高新、康泰生物、智飞生物、欧普康视、康龙化成、凯莱英、健帆生物、华兰生物、通策医疗等数十家令人耳熟能详的公司过去均是超级牛股，但如今少则跌50%，多则跌超80%。过去，中国卫生总费用从2000年的4586亿元增长至2020年的72175亿元。20年时间，医疗费用翻了将近15倍，年复合增长14.78%，远超GDP的增速。而这样的增长盛景，未来并不可持续。今年1月10日，国常会明确表示要推动集中带量采购常态化、制度化并提速扩面，持续降低医药价格，让患者受益。原来，市场幻想着国产化程度低的医药领域会是集采的避风港，中短期内不会被集采。但事实证明，集采的推进比预想的更快。今年4月，福建牵头的开展电生理和腔镜吻合器采购联盟集采，纳入2022年拟重点推进的联盟集采。7月11日，国家组织骨科脊柱类耗材集中带量采购公告显示，本次集中带量采购产品为骨科脊柱类医用耗材，根据手术类型、手术部位、入路方式等组建产品系统进行采购，共分为14个产品系统类别。这意味着几乎所有脊柱产品都要被集采。今年7月底，国家医保局办公室印发《关于开展口腔种植收费和医疗服务价格调查登记工作的通知》，登记范围包含公立以及非公立医疗机构，确保“横到边、竖到底、全覆盖”。目前，安徽蚌埠市已经先行试点，实行种植牙项目限价收费。其种植牙医疗服务项目收费，从均价10000元/颗左右，降至2200元/颗以下，最高降幅82%以上。如果接下来国家集采方案想推动中高端种植牙价格大幅降低，以通策医疗为代表的民营医疗机构的盈利能力会受到显著冲击。8月初，江西省牵头开展肝功生化检测试剂信息申报工作，覆盖26种被检测物资，覆盖22省市，集采规模相当于70%中国省份。至此，IVD领域也无避风港，大超市场预期。在集采推进的同时，医疗改革也持续推进。去年10月15日，国务院医改领导小组印发《关于深入推广福建省三明市经验深化医药卫生体制改革的实施意见》。医改意见一锤定音，或将深刻改变整个医药行业的运行逻辑。“三明模式”严控过度检查、过度用药、过度治疗，实现了“公立医院回归公益性，医生回归看病角色，医患间回归信任”。直白的讲，三明模式实现了财政降压、患者减负、医生增收“三赢”局面，医药、器械、医疗服务等庞大的利益集团将成为输家。全国推广三明模式，正式吹响了集结号。如果未来落地执行与推进良好的话，会类似反垄断之互联网的深远影响。一方面集采提速扩面，会冲击现有医药医疗上市公司的毛利率，另一方面随着三明模式的推广，会减少非必要的过度用药治疗，量上会减少（改革成功的话）。量价齐杀，医药医疗公司的盈利能力会被大大削弱。这是大医药行业从去年7月以来一路暴跌至今的重要逻辑。有投资者拉出了医药ETF的走势图，期盼着触底反转，演绎过去的规律。在我看来，惯性投资普通投资者是亏钱的重要原因之一，过去优秀不能代表未来优秀啊。此外，油茅、酱茅、安防茅、火锅茅的股价表现也都陷入了泥潭，让投资者深感绝望。02成长为王过去很多年，A股始终在科技（成长）、消费、周期、医药、金融等大类板块中轮动上演超级行情。而从去年218开始，市场始终扎堆科技，更加坚定了成长才是王道的共识。从股票定价逻辑来看，成长才是价值投资的底色，而不是所谓龙头，所谓核心资产大票。商业的目的是赚钱，好的商业模式就是能够源源不断赚更多的钱。从股票定价逻辑来看，就是源源不断生产自由现金流，折现过来就是越来越有资本价值（DCF估值模型)。自由现金流贴现的基本公式如下：（来源：百度百科）企业现有价值大小，主要跟两个变量有关，一个是永续经营下现金流总和，一个是折现率。前者要高，就要求上市公司保持持续的利润增长，即公司的成长性与稳健性。后者=无风险收益率+信用利差+经营风险利差+……这跟公司所处市场竞争地位、盈利能力、资产负债情况等密切相关。一般而言，公司越优秀，折现率越低，经营与盈利质量越高。从定价逻辑来看，一家公司的资本价值是否持续增长，关键在于持续的成长性。记得，不要只看短期1、2年的增长。未来，投资的大方向要拥抱成长股，这是由股票底层逻辑决定的。过去很多传统行业，包括房地产、家电、水泥、银行、调味品、食用油、乳制品等等，已经从成长期走入成熟期，乃至衰退期，市场规模从增量变为存量，乃至大幅萎缩。那么这些行业的龙头们也从小公司变成大公司，也已经走过成长期，未来业绩增速大幅放缓，乃至不增长，市场给予得估值越来越低才是正常的。这些年，中国经济也从高速增长变为高质量增长（中低速），未来不再依靠房地产。未来经济增长引擎无它，只有两个：一是消费，一是科技。后者是依靠技术提高产出效率，提升产业的附加值，附加值高了居民收入才能增长，才会给消费带来更大的增长。从欧美历史发展进程来看，消费后期必然成为经济增长的主力。2020年5月，中央政治局常委会会议首次提出，要加快形成以国内大循环为主、国际国内双循环相互协调的发展格局。这其实也为未来中国经济的增长定了调。拥抱所谓核心资产躺赚的时代已经成为过去式。未来大的投资机会聚焦在科技与消费。对待科技成长，市场非常慷慨给予了非常高的估值，且行情持续上涨了3年时间。消费呢，要有成长性的细分赛道才会有良好机会。不要惯性持有所谓茅牛，而不知商业世界沧海桑田的巨变。03尾声2015年全面牛市之后，A股再难有全面牛了，结构性牛市与熊市恐怕会是常态。因为我们的经济体，本身就是有产业兴，有产业落，有公司兴，有公司落，有产业正处在顺周期，有产业正处在逆周期里，普涨是奢望，分化才是常态。这种局面，对于市场投资者会很难。因为没有多少人能够灵活做到在不同行业切换来切换去。并且，中国很多行业很多公司已经变大变强，市值已经很大了，提供良好回报率的时间窗口其实已经过去了。未来，能够有很大增量的行业会越来越小，交易也会越来越拥挤，投资赚钱的难度也会越大。这需要投资者做好充分心理准备。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384049288,"gmtCreate":1613597706844,"gmtModify":1613613138346,"author":{"id":"3442215103010362","authorId":"3442215103010362","name":"少虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77a0e60eee333977f5947f6695e7d026","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"等着暴跌吧傻子","listText":"等着暴跌吧傻子","text":"等着暴跌吧傻子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384049288","repostId":"385514705","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":385514705,"gmtCreate":1613563758607,"gmtModify":1613563758607,"author":{"id":"3516789814374990","authorId":"3516789814374990","name":"Sam9988","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15da5f881cda4d0e5b9e69ec422999dc","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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