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liamruk
2021-10-22
$NQ100指数主连 2112(NQmain)$
准备暴力拉升
liamruk
2021-10-22
$NQ100指数主连 2112(NQmain)$
擦 又这情况。老样子盘前 拉回去 开盘接着100点。
liamruk
2021-10-22
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
明天开盘破900。清 910短线做空 850又入
liamruk
2021-10-22
$NQ100指数主连 2112(NQmain)$
全线清仓 转空。明儿起开始回调👇 预测明天苹果跌1.5个点以上
liamruk
2021-10-21
$苹果(AAPL)$
杀期权?这织布行情?
liamruk
2021-10-21
$NQ100指数主连 2112(NQmain)$
诱空 盘前立马反弹
liamruk
2021-10-21
$NQ100指数主连 2112(NQmain)$
预测下盘前一小时拉回15400
liamruk
2021-10-20
$苹果(AAPL)$
全仓做多吧。现在美股就是任何消息都是利多。揭皮书显示经济好 那就利多。揭皮书显示经济不好 那就更利多 因为加息就不敢来 还要接着放水。别看什么指标 指标就是一直涨📈
liamruk
2021-10-20
$NQ100指数主连 2112(NQmain)$
今日底已现 15370 入 明天又是100个点。连着5天套路 一模一样
liamruk
2021-10-02
$AAPL 20211008 143.0 CALL(AAPL)$
终于爬回来了
liamruk
2021-10-01
$苹果(AAPL)$
大盘回去了 😂大苹果也回不去 啥情况
liamruk
2021-09-29
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
要熔断吗?
liamruk
2021-09-14
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
大摩说科技股要跌了 [呆住] 是不是可以加仓了
liamruk
2021-09-09
全部看空 那就没啥风险了[捂脸]
美股遭华尔街投行连环看空
liamruk
2021-09-09
$NQ100指数主连 2109(NQmain)$
VVV 马上变红 明儿新高
liamruk
2021-09-09
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
表演个V回来
liamruk
2021-09-04
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
非农强劲大涨 非农不及预期小涨 [笑哭]
liamruk
2021-08-31
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
不得不佩服 2万点可能性不小
liamruk
2021-08-20
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
买中概股要有点政治觉悟 不然别买 容易把自己抄死
liamruk
2021-08-10
$NQ100指数主连 2109(NQmain)$
奶奶的 还好做了个对冲。擦 啥玩意 真能涨
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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盘前立马反弹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853688263","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853891184,"gmtCreate":1634785604595,"gmtModify":1634785604595,"author":{"id":"3441784267270797","authorId":"3441784267270797","name":"liamruk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2112(NQmain)$ </a>预测下盘前一小时拉回15400","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2112(NQmain)$ </a>预测下盘前一小时拉回15400","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2112(NQmain)$ 预测下盘前一小时拉回15400","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853891184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853061468,"gmtCreate":1634742801327,"gmtModify":1634742801327,"author":{"id":"3441784267270797","authorId":"3441784267270797","name":"liamruk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>全仓做多吧。现在美股就是任何消息都是利多。揭皮书显示经济好 那就利多。揭皮书显示经济不好 那就更利多 因为加息就不敢来 还要接着放水。别看什么指标 指标就是一直涨📈","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>全仓做多吧。现在美股就是任何消息都是利多。揭皮书显示经济好 那就利多。揭皮书显示经济不好 那就更利多 因为加息就不敢来 还要接着放水。别看什么指标 指标就是一直涨📈","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$全仓做多吧。现在美股就是任何消息都是利多。揭皮书显示经济好 那就利多。揭皮书显示经济不好 那就更利多 因为加息就不敢来 还要接着放水。别看什么指标 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啥情况","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864293226","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3472098980994884","authorId":"3472098980994884","name":"拒绝游泳的鱼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52fff20daaba255185a5f3bd46574b0f","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"服气,就它不涨","text":"服气,就它不涨","html":"服气,就它不涨"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862157395,"gmtCreate":1632848307332,"gmtModify":1632848307332,"author":{"id":"3441784267270797","authorId":"3441784267270797","name":"liamruk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>要熔断吗?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>要熔断吗?","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$要熔断吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862157395","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886568780,"gmtCreate":1631606662940,"gmtModify":1631606662940,"author":{"id":"3441784267270797","authorId":"3441784267270797","name":"liamruk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>大摩说科技股要跌了 [呆住] 是不是可以加仓了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>大摩说科技股要跌了 [呆住] 是不是可以加仓了","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$大摩说科技股要跌了 [呆住] 是不是可以加仓了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886568780","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":883382385,"gmtCreate":1631202528547,"gmtModify":1631202528547,"author":{"id":"3441784267270797","authorId":"3441784267270797","name":"liamruk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"全部看空 那就没啥风险了[捂脸] ","listText":"全部看空 那就没啥风险了[捂脸] ","text":"全部看空 那就没啥风险了[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883382385","repostId":"1159165577","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1159165577","pubTimestamp":1631190879,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159165577?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 20:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股遭华尔街投行连环看空","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159165577","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"在最近几周当中,各种利空消息终于开始渗透到投资者的头脑当中,比如美国经济增长减速,通货膨胀大举抬升,德尔塔变种病毒带来的更大威胁等,让华尔街的情绪日益趋向悲观。\n2021年开年至今,美股市场可说是延续","content":"<p><i>在最近几周当中,各种利空消息终于开始渗透到投资者的头脑当中,比如美国经济增长减速,通货膨胀大举抬升,德尔塔变种病毒带来的更大威胁等,让华尔街的情绪日益趋向悲观。</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa01bcdbd6932a5b9f50468e2512433\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2021年开年至今,美股市场可说是延续了从2020年开始的强劲涨势,当下的水位较之去年疫情期间的谷底已经翻了一番有余,而与此同时,标普500强的盈利也在强势增长。不过,近期以来,越来越多的策略师们都开始怀疑这如火如荼的派对还能够延续多久。比如,美国银行现在就发布预期,说标普500指数不但今年年底的水平将低于当下,而且明年基本上将原地踏步。</p>\n<p>在市场近期涨势的催促下,美银首席量化和股票策略师萨布拉玛尼安(Savita Subramanian)在当地时间周三发布的研究报告当中将标普500指数2021年底目标点位调升至4250点,这一目标点位虽然较之他们之前的3800点有所提升,但是与周二4520点的实际收盘点位相比,依然要低大约6%。与此同时,萨布拉玛尼安更预计标普500指数2022年结束时将只有4600点,比起周二收盘点位只高了区区的2%。</p>\n<p>虽然美股市场近期以来迭创新高,但是不少策略师都依然坚持着看空的调子,毫不动摇,而萨布拉玛尼安就是其中非常典型的一个。在最近几周当中,各种利空消息终于开始渗透到投资者的头脑当中,比如美国经济增长减速,通货膨胀大举抬升,德尔塔变种病毒带来的更大威胁等,让华尔街的情绪日益趋向悲观。虽然说起来,萨布拉玛尼安这次算是提升了美银的2021年标普500指数目标点位,但是她还是明确告诫投资者,大家有充分理由在未来保持高度谨慎。</p>\n<p>“美股涨势也许现在还没有到结束的时候,但是当那一天真正到来,局面恐怕会非常不美妙。”萨布拉玛尼安谈到市场近期的大趋势时表示,“投资者的情绪和市场的估值都已经过度高企,大量的乐观情绪都已经被股价充分消化,而我们的长期估值模型显示,标普500指数未来十年的回报率将是负数(年均-0.8%),这种情况自科技泡沫破灭以来还是首次出现。”</p>\n<p>萨布拉玛尼安高度谨慎的看法,其关键理由就在于,薪资增长,输入成本上涨,以及供应链问题等都在对企业的利润率形成重大威胁,将带来她所谓的“通货膨胀上行压力下的企业盈利下行风险”。</p>\n<p>事实就是,通货膨胀和联储已经成为了华尔街的重大心病。萨布拉玛尼安指出,联储已经发出信号,可能在今年晚些时候开始缩减债券购买计划的规模,而这就意味着股市未来的表现将变得糟糕起来。归根结底,美股这十多年来的大牛市,其实与全球金融危机之后的联储资产负债表持续膨胀是密切关联的。</p>\n<p>她还写道,与此同时,从整体股票投资配置情况来看,华尔街目前是“对美股持中立立场,但是与‘卖出’一端的接近程度为2007年以来所仅见,意味着标普500指数未来十二个月的回报率堪忧”。</p>\n<p>事实上,正如前面所提到的,悲观情绪正在影响华尔街上越来越多的策略师,看空已经成为了一种带有相对普遍性的现象,警告声可以说是此起彼伏。比如,在最新的研究报告或者媒体访谈当中,高盛、摩根士丹利和花旗等大机构都发出了各自的预警,称美股持续上涨的势头完全可能被打断或者颠覆。德尔塔变种病毒肆虐,全球经济复苏步履蹒跚,或者是各国央行退出疫情时代刺激计划的行为,所有这一切都伴随着巨大的风险。</p>\n<p>“高估值使得市场的脆弱度与日俱增。”高盛投资组合策略和资产配置总经理缪勒-格利斯曼(Christian Mueller-Glissmann)接受媒体采访时指出,“如果有新的消极因素入场,就可能会在成长型股票领域当中造成迅速的去风险化行情。”</p>\n<p>蒙塔古(Chris Montagu)为首的花旗策略师团队则从另外一个角度发出了警告。他们在研究报告当中指出,从股票头寸角度看,当前的市场已经进入极端看涨区间,标普500指数多头头寸与空头头寸之比接近10比1。据估计,只要指数下跌区区2.2%,这些多头头寸当中就有半数将遭受损失。这也就意味着,哪怕是小规模的盘整,也足以造成这些多头头寸的强制平仓。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利在研究报告当中将美股评级调降至减持,将全球股票评级调降至平持,理由是10月将伴随着“巨大的风险”。瑞士信贷也表示,他们的立场是略略减持美股,理由是估值极端化,监管风险浮现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10bdc0ec6ada49f1d63f6803791a07ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>虽然没有哪家机构明确断言近期内将有重大抛售行情发生,但是夏季涨势之后,美股市场估值严重高企,投资者也没有剩下多少现金“弹药”,这就意味着市场在任何坏消息面前,处境都是十分脆弱的。截至8月底,标普500指数已经连续七个月都在上涨,这种情况2018年1月以来还是首次出现,而盛极必衰,不少观察家都相信,在9月这个具有明显季节性弱势的月份当中,一场回挫很可能已经无可避免了。</p>\n<p>“我们正在进入一个新的阶段,各种9月发布的经济数据将呈现出疲软态势,而与此同时,由于德尔塔变种病毒的传播和学校重新开学,风险反而再度高企。”摩根士丹利跨资产策略师希茨(Andrew Sheets)接受媒体采访时指出,“如果这些数据真的是令人难以乐观,市场估值发生调整只是迟早的事情。”</p>\n<p>在美股市场今年夏季的涨势当中,散户投资者其实发挥了关键的作用。根据摩根大通的统计数据,在7月到8月之间,他们向美股和美股ETF总计投入了近300亿美元现金,这一两月投资流量数据也创下了历史新高。摩根大通预计,只要宽松货币政策持续存在,这些人完全可能扮演起市场“压舱石”的角色,保持其稳定。只不过,宽松货币政策本身的前景,现在也已经因为缩减而充满变数。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/137dd1e50255537b584133a33ee3b109\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>“散户投资者一直在买进股票和股票基金,这种稳定而强势的资金流入使得股市发生盘整的可能性大为降低。”摩根大通以帕尼吉尔佐格鲁(Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou)为首的全球策略师团队在研究报告当中写道,“联储即将到来的政策变化是否会影响散户投资者对股市的看法,是需要予以密切关注的。”</p>\n<p>现在,美国联储和欧洲央行都已经定下了削减资产购买计划的基调,而这对于散户的态度无疑是一场终极测试。虽然按照估计,联储至少在11月之前都不会有任何关于缩减的实质性消息放出,而加息则更是未来很远的事情,但是2018年加息几乎扼杀牛市的记忆,的确已经深深烙印在了许多人的头脑当中。</p>\n<p>彭博的分析报告显示,从技术面看来,美股遭遇一轮回挫的可能性也在增大,动能和波动率都显示,机构情绪已经过热。正如缪勒-格利斯曼所总结的:“关键就在于,我们面对大量可能的负面冲击,但是几乎没有什么像样的缓冲可言。”</p>\n<p>当然,华尔街上也绝非只有悲观一种声音。比如,LPL Financial的迪特里克(Ryan Detrick)就在研究报告当中指出,迄今为止,美股今年的表现都非常强势,“在过去,美股开年业绩最强势的十年当中,有八次,年度的后四个月都是上涨的”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e15a44ea01fe4e25cac1fdb5d5fc8b6\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>New York Life Investments的经济学家、投资组合策略师古德温(Lauren Goodwin)在研究报告当中指出,“强势的经济和企业基本面意味着,复苏是完全可以持续的,风险资产的价格可以进一步走高”,不过又补充说,她预计未来大家将只能看到“股价的适度上涨”,而且还伴随着“更频繁的回挫”。</p>\n<p>萨布拉玛尼安则为那些相对悲观的投资者提供了建议。她指出,“在通胀抬头的低利率环境当中,抗通胀债券的收益率将成为稀缺资源”。</p>\n<p>在这种环境当中,她较为青睐那些“能够从通胀当中获益”的板块,如能源、金融和原材料板块的派息股票。她补充说,这种环境当中,小型股票也将获得好于平均水准的表现,因为这些企业“与美国国内生产总值/资本支出关联更加密切,而且与标普500指数不同的是,当前的估值意味着它们未来十年还能够有所进项”。</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股遭华尔街投行连环看空</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股遭华尔街投行连环看空\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 20:34 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-Wa4vp_C8ZLwlVOIkaddPA><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在最近几周当中,各种利空消息终于开始渗透到投资者的头脑当中,比如美国经济增长减速,通货膨胀大举抬升,德尔塔变种病毒带来的更大威胁等,让华尔街的情绪日益趋向悲观。\n2021年开年至今,美股市场可说是延续了从2020年开始的强劲涨势,当下的水位较之去年疫情期间的谷底已经翻了一番有余,而与此同时,标普500强的盈利也在强势增长。不过,近期以来,越来越多的策略师们都开始怀疑这如火如荼的派对还能够延续多久。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-Wa4vp_C8ZLwlVOIkaddPA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa01bcdbd6932a5b9f50468e2512433","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-Wa4vp_C8ZLwlVOIkaddPA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159165577","content_text":"在最近几周当中,各种利空消息终于开始渗透到投资者的头脑当中,比如美国经济增长减速,通货膨胀大举抬升,德尔塔变种病毒带来的更大威胁等,让华尔街的情绪日益趋向悲观。\n2021年开年至今,美股市场可说是延续了从2020年开始的强劲涨势,当下的水位较之去年疫情期间的谷底已经翻了一番有余,而与此同时,标普500强的盈利也在强势增长。不过,近期以来,越来越多的策略师们都开始怀疑这如火如荼的派对还能够延续多久。比如,美国银行现在就发布预期,说标普500指数不但今年年底的水平将低于当下,而且明年基本上将原地踏步。\n在市场近期涨势的催促下,美银首席量化和股票策略师萨布拉玛尼安(Savita Subramanian)在当地时间周三发布的研究报告当中将标普500指数2021年底目标点位调升至4250点,这一目标点位虽然较之他们之前的3800点有所提升,但是与周二4520点的实际收盘点位相比,依然要低大约6%。与此同时,萨布拉玛尼安更预计标普500指数2022年结束时将只有4600点,比起周二收盘点位只高了区区的2%。\n虽然美股市场近期以来迭创新高,但是不少策略师都依然坚持着看空的调子,毫不动摇,而萨布拉玛尼安就是其中非常典型的一个。在最近几周当中,各种利空消息终于开始渗透到投资者的头脑当中,比如美国经济增长减速,通货膨胀大举抬升,德尔塔变种病毒带来的更大威胁等,让华尔街的情绪日益趋向悲观。虽然说起来,萨布拉玛尼安这次算是提升了美银的2021年标普500指数目标点位,但是她还是明确告诫投资者,大家有充分理由在未来保持高度谨慎。\n“美股涨势也许现在还没有到结束的时候,但是当那一天真正到来,局面恐怕会非常不美妙。”萨布拉玛尼安谈到市场近期的大趋势时表示,“投资者的情绪和市场的估值都已经过度高企,大量的乐观情绪都已经被股价充分消化,而我们的长期估值模型显示,标普500指数未来十年的回报率将是负数(年均-0.8%),这种情况自科技泡沫破灭以来还是首次出现。”\n萨布拉玛尼安高度谨慎的看法,其关键理由就在于,薪资增长,输入成本上涨,以及供应链问题等都在对企业的利润率形成重大威胁,将带来她所谓的“通货膨胀上行压力下的企业盈利下行风险”。\n事实就是,通货膨胀和联储已经成为了华尔街的重大心病。萨布拉玛尼安指出,联储已经发出信号,可能在今年晚些时候开始缩减债券购买计划的规模,而这就意味着股市未来的表现将变得糟糕起来。归根结底,美股这十多年来的大牛市,其实与全球金融危机之后的联储资产负债表持续膨胀是密切关联的。\n她还写道,与此同时,从整体股票投资配置情况来看,华尔街目前是“对美股持中立立场,但是与‘卖出’一端的接近程度为2007年以来所仅见,意味着标普500指数未来十二个月的回报率堪忧”。\n事实上,正如前面所提到的,悲观情绪正在影响华尔街上越来越多的策略师,看空已经成为了一种带有相对普遍性的现象,警告声可以说是此起彼伏。比如,在最新的研究报告或者媒体访谈当中,高盛、摩根士丹利和花旗等大机构都发出了各自的预警,称美股持续上涨的势头完全可能被打断或者颠覆。德尔塔变种病毒肆虐,全球经济复苏步履蹒跚,或者是各国央行退出疫情时代刺激计划的行为,所有这一切都伴随着巨大的风险。\n“高估值使得市场的脆弱度与日俱增。”高盛投资组合策略和资产配置总经理缪勒-格利斯曼(Christian Mueller-Glissmann)接受媒体采访时指出,“如果有新的消极因素入场,就可能会在成长型股票领域当中造成迅速的去风险化行情。”\n蒙塔古(Chris Montagu)为首的花旗策略师团队则从另外一个角度发出了警告。他们在研究报告当中指出,从股票头寸角度看,当前的市场已经进入极端看涨区间,标普500指数多头头寸与空头头寸之比接近10比1。据估计,只要指数下跌区区2.2%,这些多头头寸当中就有半数将遭受损失。这也就意味着,哪怕是小规模的盘整,也足以造成这些多头头寸的强制平仓。\n摩根士丹利在研究报告当中将美股评级调降至减持,将全球股票评级调降至平持,理由是10月将伴随着“巨大的风险”。瑞士信贷也表示,他们的立场是略略减持美股,理由是估值极端化,监管风险浮现。\n\n虽然没有哪家机构明确断言近期内将有重大抛售行情发生,但是夏季涨势之后,美股市场估值严重高企,投资者也没有剩下多少现金“弹药”,这就意味着市场在任何坏消息面前,处境都是十分脆弱的。截至8月底,标普500指数已经连续七个月都在上涨,这种情况2018年1月以来还是首次出现,而盛极必衰,不少观察家都相信,在9月这个具有明显季节性弱势的月份当中,一场回挫很可能已经无可避免了。\n“我们正在进入一个新的阶段,各种9月发布的经济数据将呈现出疲软态势,而与此同时,由于德尔塔变种病毒的传播和学校重新开学,风险反而再度高企。”摩根士丹利跨资产策略师希茨(Andrew Sheets)接受媒体采访时指出,“如果这些数据真的是令人难以乐观,市场估值发生调整只是迟早的事情。”\n在美股市场今年夏季的涨势当中,散户投资者其实发挥了关键的作用。根据摩根大通的统计数据,在7月到8月之间,他们向美股和美股ETF总计投入了近300亿美元现金,这一两月投资流量数据也创下了历史新高。摩根大通预计,只要宽松货币政策持续存在,这些人完全可能扮演起市场“压舱石”的角色,保持其稳定。只不过,宽松货币政策本身的前景,现在也已经因为缩减而充满变数。\n\n“散户投资者一直在买进股票和股票基金,这种稳定而强势的资金流入使得股市发生盘整的可能性大为降低。”摩根大通以帕尼吉尔佐格鲁(Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou)为首的全球策略师团队在研究报告当中写道,“联储即将到来的政策变化是否会影响散户投资者对股市的看法,是需要予以密切关注的。”\n现在,美国联储和欧洲央行都已经定下了削减资产购买计划的基调,而这对于散户的态度无疑是一场终极测试。虽然按照估计,联储至少在11月之前都不会有任何关于缩减的实质性消息放出,而加息则更是未来很远的事情,但是2018年加息几乎扼杀牛市的记忆,的确已经深深烙印在了许多人的头脑当中。\n彭博的分析报告显示,从技术面看来,美股遭遇一轮回挫的可能性也在增大,动能和波动率都显示,机构情绪已经过热。正如缪勒-格利斯曼所总结的:“关键就在于,我们面对大量可能的负面冲击,但是几乎没有什么像样的缓冲可言。”\n当然,华尔街上也绝非只有悲观一种声音。比如,LPL Financial的迪特里克(Ryan Detrick)就在研究报告当中指出,迄今为止,美股今年的表现都非常强势,“在过去,美股开年业绩最强势的十年当中,有八次,年度的后四个月都是上涨的”。\n\nNew York Life Investments的经济学家、投资组合策略师古德温(Lauren Goodwin)在研究报告当中指出,“强势的经济和企业基本面意味着,复苏是完全可以持续的,风险资产的价格可以进一步走高”,不过又补充说,她预计未来大家将只能看到“股价的适度上涨”,而且还伴随着“更频繁的回挫”。\n萨布拉玛尼安则为那些相对悲观的投资者提供了建议。她指出,“在通胀抬头的低利率环境当中,抗通胀债券的收益率将成为稀缺资源”。\n在这种环境当中,她较为青睐那些“能够从通胀当中获益”的板块,如能源、金融和原材料板块的派息股票。她补充说,这种环境当中,小型股票也将获得好于平均水准的表现,因为这些企业“与美国国内生产总值/资本支出关联更加密切,而且与标普500指数不同的是,当前的估值意味着它们未来十年还能够有所进项”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":889803997,"gmtCreate":1631123094519,"gmtModify":1631123094519,"author":{"id":"3441784267270797","authorId":"3441784267270797","name":"liamruk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2109(NQmain)$ </a>VVV 马上变红 明儿新高","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2109(NQmain)$ </a>VVV 马上变红 明儿新高","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2109(NQmain)$ VVV 马上变红 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