森灵的个人主页 - 老虎社区

森灵

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IP属地：广东

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0勋章

2021-09-27

$开拓药业-B(09939)$骗筹码，嘛的

2021-09-17

$360数科(QFIN)$跌回16我卖房[开心] [开心]

2021-09-17

$微创医疗(00853)$早上挂单没成交，我去

2021-09-16

$小赢科技(XYF)$做空就爽了

2021-09-07

买了就爹，梅的

2021-08-12

$小赢科技(XYF)$割了就涨[流泪] [流泪] [流泪]

2021-07-23

$360数科(QFIN)$盘前这么狠

2021-07-20

$360数科(QFIN)$做空你

2021-07-09

$晶科能源(JKS)$降准了还跌[捂脸]

2021-06-24

$医美国际(AIH)$一把屎一把尿的

2021-06-18

$医美国际(AIH)$越跌越买

2021-06-16

$360数科(QFIN)$互金都在涨，就你跌，好意思么

2021-06-15

$360数科(QFIN)$早换小赢就好了，

2021-06-08

$医美国际(AIH)$鈤咯

2021-06-02

$医美国际(AIH)$完犊子

2021-05-13

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$卖空开始

2021-05-12

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$堕了

2021-05-08

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$天天跌[流泪]

2021-05-03

$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$严重落后啊

2021-04-19

$蔚来(NIO)$弱爆了

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>做空爽歪歪","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$做空爽歪歪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/304704030","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":309400340,"gmtCreate":1602752332980,"gmtModify":1703827734503,"author":{"id":"3437802343787754","authorId":"3437802343787754","name":"森灵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9831f60a3fd1541c8edb15263b31c47d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"记得国老说晶科第一目标价是88美元","listText":"记得国老说晶科第一目标价是88美元","text":"记得国老说晶科第一目标价是88美元","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309400340","repostId":"2075391879","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2075391879","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"腾讯公司唯一官方帐号。","home_visible":0,"media_name":"腾讯","id":"1084790585","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a522d48c5b404f518e0e60bb2a7f1ed7"},"pubTimestamp":1602735141,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2075391879?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-10-15 12:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"我在晶科能源里熬了三年，现在谈谈感受","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2075391879","media":"腾讯","summary":"编者按：这是一篇写于3年前的文章，当时晶科能源的股价大约在21美元附近，而截至10月13日美股收盘，晶科能源股价为62.65美元，三年收益大概三倍。目前中国企业生产了全球 80%光伏组件，不论是技术还是生产效率都是全球最强的，也是新兴行业中国在全球最具竟争力的行业。","content":"<p>编者按：这是一篇写于3年前（2017年7月）的文章，当时<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">晶科能源</a>的股价大约在21美元附近，而截至10月13日美股收盘，晶科能源股价为62.65美元，三年收益大概三倍（不计分红）。</p><p>当年投资人国老对于晶科的买入规模一度达到举牌，当时备受争议，如今三年的坚守收获颇丰，现在回头看来当年国老的文章，对于产业格局和发展方向的分析颇具洞察力。</p><p>下面的文字节选自当年的分析文章，算是事后对当初逻辑的一个验证和复盘，对于普通投资者来说，亦可学习到当时国老的分析思路。</p><p><b>01 光伏行业这十年</b></p><p>我见证过光伏行业十年间的大起大落，这个行业在争议一直在快速发展，不论是技术或新装机量，都远远超出行业最乐观者的预测。</p><p>这里曾经在十年内诞生过施正荣、彭小峰和李河君等3位中国首富，光速崛起，然后又迅速破产抑或深陷造假漩涡。</p><p>下面我从光伏行业发展的三个阶段来分析近12年来光伏行业的变迁。</p><p>光伏发电发展经历了三个阶段：</p><p>一、全球的最早商业化应用是 2001年始在德国，西班牙等欧洲发达国家，一直到 08 年全球经济危机前，欧洲光伏需求占全球90%份额，生产光伏所需硅料和主要生产设备也主要是欧洲厂家。</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201015121223797d246d76ii8q3qte\" tg-width=\"120\" tg-height=\"120\"></p><p>当时光伏发电成本折合5元人民币，可以说是能源中的奢侈品，欧洲人当年为何掏那么多钱补贴光伏？</p><p>我想主要有二点，一是经济好了对环境健康更为重视，在能源结构中更多采用光伏，风电等清洁能源，二是决策者们相信光伏这个行业会从奢侈品进化到廉价能源与火电有竟争力，通过前期补贴让更多企业参与进来在欧洲扶持光伏产业，但很不幸是最后让中国人摘了果子。</p><p>二、2008年美国次贷引发全球经济危机后欧洲各国减少或停止对光伏补贴，美国为走出经济低谷，大印钞票，美国接力欧洲也大规模发展光伏，这时的光伏度电成本应降至2块人民币。</p><p>三、2012 年欧美共同针对中国光伏企业双反，当年的光伏市场90%在欧美，这对中国光伏企业来说真是毁灭性打击，导致尚德，赛维等光伏企业倒闭。</p><p>但他们的倒闭根源并不是在光伏业务本身，应该是说他们死在<b>做硅料期货和投资上</b>，在硅料高位时签了硅料大量长单和投资硅料生产，<b>通俗地形容就是做硅料期货爆仓了。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201015121229985d246khal2ro3i3n\" tg-width=\"120\" tg-height=\"120\"></p><p>目前中国企业生产了全球 80%光伏组件，不论是技术还是生产效率都是全球最强的，也是新兴行业中国在全球最具竟争力的行业。</p><p>相较全球目前光伏发电占比 1%，最早应用光伏的德国也只有7%发电来自光伏，如今非洲，中东和印度日照时间长光伏发电已低于火电直接跳过火电上光伏了。</p><p>下一个五年，光伏将从新能源转变为主要能源，借用比尔盖茨说过的一句话：人们总是高估一个新技术出来的前5年，却低估了这个技术后5年的发展。</p><p><b>02 光伏行业现状和技术进步</b></p><p>上游硅料相当于挖矿炼铜的，硅料技术有迭代较快且投资巨大，中游是发电机组，这块业务的技术是由整个产业链共同推进的，不可能哪家技术垄断，成本控制得好，品牌和渠道有优势的公司如晶科（JKS.US）未来空间更大。</p><p>中游就像是做中央空调的，品牌作用应很重要，毕竟装了后要发电25-30 年，EPC 或电站业主肯定要选有实力厂家和质量售后有保证的产品；下游是发电厂下游是公用事业回报率，收益好比高息债，稳定但要爆发增长也很难。</p><p>目前光伏行业的利润都集中在上游的设备，辅料，硅料和单晶硅片等厂家，做组件的厂家毛利最低最苦，我分析过上游这些厂家近二年的扩产计划，他们的好日子快到头了，硅料40%毛利，单晶硅片35%毛利是不可持续的。</p><p><b>组件行业快苦尽甘来了，光伏组件行业再经过 2-3 年血拼后行业集中度提升龙头晶科毛利应会恢复到 20%+，而纯利应有 10%左右。</b></p><p>国内光伏公司去年将美德日光伏巨头干到破产或减产亏损，光伏产业链现从上游硅料生产效率和成本，光伏组件转化等技术已全面超过海外同行技术方面，近年来光伏电池转化效率每年以1至1.5个百分点的速度提高，目前已经达到 20%以上；成本方面，全球的光伏发电成本在过去的5年下降75%。</p><p>任何行业都在竟争，但竟争最后会形成2-3个龙头才能赚大钱，其它赚小钱或生存艰难地维持着。</p><p>竞争是好事，促进行业快速发展，优胜劣汰，<b>而光伏是个完全市场化充分竟争的行业，中国光伏行业是全球竞争力最强的。</b></p><p>未来单晶多晶会并存， 就像安卓和 iOS，这二种组件晶科都有。</p><p>这二年光伏行业技术进步突破成本下降较快，国产化设备替代原昂贵进口设备，高效多晶金刚线切割+黑硅+PERC 下半年也要出货了，未来 2-3 年组件可能降至 2 块，光伏正在转变为普通消费品。</p><p><b>03 光伏行业投资机会及未来发展变化</b></p><p>光伏这个行业太惨了，过去十年不管是产业还是投资者，都是白骨累累。</p><p>基金对光伏都有心理阴影了，看每个光伏公司都感觉像尚德。难道互联网不是这样吗，现电商龙头都知是阿里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>，当年可是8848啊，让IDG投资损失最大的一笔投资。</p><p>一个成功的投资者，最重要的素质之一就是：打破思维惯性。</p><p>2015 年 SUNE 从 100 亿跌到现在 1500 万跌了 98%，老美不敢碰光伏股是有原因的，绿光资本的 David Einhorn 曾经持有2484万股的 SunEdison，先锋基金（Vanguard）曾经持有2035万股，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">黑石</a> （BlackRock）曾经持有 2062 万股，这些大基金在 SunEdison 上面，亏损超过 20 亿美金，美国基金已经对光伏有心理阴影了。</p><p>尚德赛维不是做业务破产，是做期货。硅料高价签了很多长单和设备很贵时高负债搞多晶硅生产。</p><p><b>剩下光伏公司都经历了十年二次洗牌从死人堆里爬出来的，晶科从全球11 名干到全球第一，都是靠能力打下来的。</b></p><p>京东亏了多少年今年才赚钱？现在少赚钱是为了以后赚大钱，在行业高速增长时抢份额比赚钱更重要。</p><p>很多人说光伏要补贴不看好，但我告诉你，<b>光伏要从全球产业和市场角度看，</b>不能只看中国市场，现海外很多国家已平价上网了，而电动汽车现火爆也属于发展阶段也需要补贴。</p><p><b>残酷的洗牌对优秀企业是好事，淘汰落后产能行业集中度提升组件龙头更能有更合理的毛利。</b>现光伏行业毛利都集中在上游不正常，卖硅料的，卖炉子和金刚切割都有40%以上毛利，组件龙头现才10%左右，1-2 年后中游组件龙头晶科毛利应可恢复到20%+，10 年晶科毛利28%， 纯利18%。</p><p>近二年抢市场份额最为重要，行业集中度提高才有高利润，光伏系统配套的逆变器通过几年血拼前十占了 80%份额，老二是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300274\">阳光电源</a>纯利都10%了。</p><p>光伏组件也会这样演变，行业集中度一定会提升，规律无法阻挡。第2-3名会活得很好，利润很高，第4以后就刷存在感了。光伏拐点已现，是逆向+成长的行业。坚信光伏会平价上网，坚信晶科会戴维斯双击。</p><p>国内市场投资者之前一直只关注地面电站，今年分布式光伏和扶贫光伏都迎来爆发式增长，国内分布式主要是工厂，医院和学校屋顶及农村空地或屋顶，集中式主要在西部沙漠等无人区。</p><p>但未来我更看好在日照好的沙漠这些地方建大型光伏电站，今年前晶科中标沙特全球最大光伏发电站，发电量为 1,177 MW，全球第一大产油国建全球第一大光伏电站，这是什么信号？未来通过特高压非洲各国可轻松用光伏电站发电自用外还可卖给欧洲，光伏正在逐步替代传统能源。</p><p>以前 20 年是信息互联时代，未来中国特高压将会推动能源互联时代，很多不敢投资 JKS 的人担心光伏组件一直在降价，技术推动进步的降价是好事，发电成本更便宜会更多投资建设光伏电站，也加快行业整合，落后产能被淘汰，优秀公司会胜出成为龙头。</p><p>如 20 年前手机刚出时大哥大几万一台按现购买力相当几十万只有极少数人才买得起，这些年价 格大幅下降后人人都用得起。</p><p><b>04 晶科竟争优势</b></p><p>买晶科我就看二个核心问题：一是坚信光伏会平价上网成为平价能源，目前光伏只占用电量 1%，但已比十几年前增长上百倍了；二是再血战二年淘汰落后产能完成行业集中度提升龙头有10%纯利。</p><p>第一个目标 3-5 年 10 倍，第二个目标 5-8 年 30 倍。</p><p>光伏组件厂商今年没有单晶 PERC 的会掉队，明后多晶没上PERC 的又会掉队，未来的玩家越来越少，行业集中度会越来越高，国外光伏厂家去年底开始很多关闭或减产，这部份量又让中国公司吃了，去年全球前五大厂中晶科吃得最多。</p><p>晶科从无名小卒干到全球老大是有大格局和超前视野创始人及能干的国际化团队，晶科有 17 个博士光伏专家组成强大研发团队，晶科成本控制做得非常好，公司管理层超前眼光，很早就在马来西亚建厂和海外建立营销公司布局海外市场，布局几年后如今已开始发力，今年出货量9-10GW会比第二名高出很多。</p><p>晶科主要生产基地在江西上饶，用地成本低，每亩只要6万，其它多数光伏企业在浙江和江苏，土地价格是上饶十倍，还有上饶员工成本也比较低。业务能力超强。毛利一直比天合，阿特斯这些一线大厂高，买龙头晶科的安全边际和上涨空间更大。</p><p>晶科今年Q1出口占65%，在美国市场份额第一，sPower 作为去年也买了晶科 1GW 组件，我更相信专业行家选择。</p><p>晶科上月底签署全球单体最大光伏电站阿布扎比项目，该光伏项目容量 为 1,177 兆瓦(DC)，投资 8.7 亿美元和去年初与美国领先的独立发电公司 sPower 签订上限一吉瓦的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>光伏组件供货条约。</p><p>四年前刚开始研究光伏行业时这类全球最大的电站用的组件都是 FSLR 和 SPWR 的，近二年中国光伏企业用质优价廉的产品赢得了全球越来越多大客户。</p><p>便宜不说，就算是他们愿意买 SPWR 的组件，这笔订单相当他半年产量，怎么交付，<b>光伏这种先进制造业欧美根本没法和中国企业竟争。</b></p><p>除了全球单体最大的光伏电站阿布扎比项目以外，晶科能源此前还成功中标拉美最大的单体光伏项目墨西哥 188MW 电站。</p><p>尚德施振荣做首富当光伏行业老大时晶科刚创业，一共才融4亿美元干到31亿销售全球光伏老大还是全行业利润第一，靠的是真本事。</p><p><b>大牛股都始于在无人关注的行业，优秀公司如熊猫般珍贵，能长期超越行业增长的公司跑出来的机会最高。</b>成功的交易需要对行业和公司未来发展的分析判断，更需要信心和勇气。</p><p>所有行业都是周期性的，12年初我买360时15元也是没人看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>（00700.HK）股价当时也跌了一半，关键这个行业未来有巨大间在行业低谷时买龙头才可赚大钱。</p><p>晶科今年出货量有 10GW，那和第二名差距拉开较大了，我预测晶科5年内可做到500亿销售额，50亿纯利。</p><p>5 月中去调研回来，今年出货 10GW 增长50%占全球份额 13%，工厂 24 小时二班倒赶货，生意火爆堪比茅台，但现利润薄如塑料花。</p><p><b>现阶段我最看重市占率。</b>晶科2016年 216 亿收入，18.6 亿纯利，比A股港股一些千亿市值公司业绩和利润都更高。而作为全球龙头晶科在3-5年后有机会能成为一家千亿市值的公司。</p><p>投资这个行当门栏最低，但要持续做好很难。<b>要么消失，要么更强，没有平庸。</b>好公司也要有合理价格才会买，现很多优秀公司股价已反映未来二年的利润预期了。</p><p>在投资这个行当经历了足够多后，对人人都看好的热门股我是不关注了，大部份股票投资亏损并非买错股，而是股价涨了很多甚至透支时追高。</p><p>去留意那些曾经辉煌过但如今被冷落的行业，选出龙头买入，皆因我相信所有行业都有周期，周而复始。投龙头必须是经历过行业周期存活超越行业增长，赚过10亿大钱的企业，这类企业未来赚50 亿，100亿机会更大些。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>我在晶科能源里熬了三年，现在谈谈感受</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n我在晶科能源里熬了三年，现在谈谈感受\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a522d48c5b404f518e0e60bb2a7f1ed7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">腾讯 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-10-15 12:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>编者按：这是一篇写于3年前（2017年7月）的文章，当时<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">晶科能源</a>的股价大约在21美元附近，而截至10月13日美股收盘，晶科能源股价为62.65美元，三年收益大概三倍（不计分红）。</p><p>当年投资人国老对于晶科的买入规模一度达到举牌，当时备受争议，如今三年的坚守收获颇丰，现在回头看来当年国老的文章，对于产业格局和发展方向的分析颇具洞察力。</p><p>下面的文字节选自当年的分析文章，算是事后对当初逻辑的一个验证和复盘，对于普通投资者来说，亦可学习到当时国老的分析思路。</p><p><b>01 光伏行业这十年</b></p><p>我见证过光伏行业十年间的大起大落，这个行业在争议一直在快速发展，不论是技术或新装机量，都远远超出行业最乐观者的预测。</p><p>这里曾经在十年内诞生过施正荣、彭小峰和李河君等3位中国首富，光速崛起，然后又迅速破产抑或深陷造假漩涡。</p><p>下面我从光伏行业发展的三个阶段来分析近12年来光伏行业的变迁。</p><p>光伏发电发展经历了三个阶段：</p><p>一、全球的最早商业化应用是 2001年始在德国，西班牙等欧洲发达国家，一直到 08 年全球经济危机前，欧洲光伏需求占全球90%份额，生产光伏所需硅料和主要生产设备也主要是欧洲厂家。</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201015121223797d246d76ii8q3qte\" tg-width=\"120\" tg-height=\"120\"></p><p>当时光伏发电成本折合5元人民币，可以说是能源中的奢侈品，欧洲人当年为何掏那么多钱补贴光伏？</p><p>我想主要有二点，一是经济好了对环境健康更为重视，在能源结构中更多采用光伏，风电等清洁能源，二是决策者们相信光伏这个行业会从奢侈品进化到廉价能源与火电有竟争力，通过前期补贴让更多企业参与进来在欧洲扶持光伏产业，但很不幸是最后让中国人摘了果子。</p><p>二、2008年美国次贷引发全球经济危机后欧洲各国减少或停止对光伏补贴，美国为走出经济低谷，大印钞票，美国接力欧洲也大规模发展光伏，这时的光伏度电成本应降至2块人民币。</p><p>三、2012 年欧美共同针对中国光伏企业双反，当年的光伏市场90%在欧美，这对中国光伏企业来说真是毁灭性打击，导致尚德，赛维等光伏企业倒闭。</p><p>但他们的倒闭根源并不是在光伏业务本身，应该是说他们死在<b>做硅料期货和投资上</b>，在硅料高位时签了硅料大量长单和投资硅料生产，<b>通俗地形容就是做硅料期货爆仓了。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201015121229985d246khal2ro3i3n\" tg-width=\"120\" tg-height=\"120\"></p><p>目前中国企业生产了全球 80%光伏组件，不论是技术还是生产效率都是全球最强的，也是新兴行业中国在全球最具竟争力的行业。</p><p>相较全球目前光伏发电占比 1%，最早应用光伏的德国也只有7%发电来自光伏，如今非洲，中东和印度日照时间长光伏发电已低于火电直接跳过火电上光伏了。</p><p>下一个五年，光伏将从新能源转变为主要能源，借用比尔盖茨说过的一句话：人们总是高估一个新技术出来的前5年，却低估了这个技术后5年的发展。</p><p><b>02 光伏行业现状和技术进步</b></p><p>上游硅料相当于挖矿炼铜的，硅料技术有迭代较快且投资巨大，中游是发电机组，这块业务的技术是由整个产业链共同推进的，不可能哪家技术垄断，成本控制得好，品牌和渠道有优势的公司如晶科（JKS.US）未来空间更大。</p><p>中游就像是做中央空调的，品牌作用应很重要，毕竟装了后要发电25-30 年，EPC 或电站业主肯定要选有实力厂家和质量售后有保证的产品；下游是发电厂下游是公用事业回报率，收益好比高息债，稳定但要爆发增长也很难。</p><p>目前光伏行业的利润都集中在上游的设备，辅料，硅料和单晶硅片等厂家，做组件的厂家毛利最低最苦，我分析过上游这些厂家近二年的扩产计划，他们的好日子快到头了，硅料40%毛利，单晶硅片35%毛利是不可持续的。</p><p><b>组件行业快苦尽甘来了，光伏组件行业再经过 2-3 年血拼后行业集中度提升龙头晶科毛利应会恢复到 20%+，而纯利应有 10%左右。</b></p><p>国内光伏公司去年将美德日光伏巨头干到破产或减产亏损，光伏产业链现从上游硅料生产效率和成本，光伏组件转化等技术已全面超过海外同行技术方面，近年来光伏电池转化效率每年以1至1.5个百分点的速度提高，目前已经达到 20%以上；成本方面，全球的光伏发电成本在过去的5年下降75%。</p><p>任何行业都在竟争，但竟争最后会形成2-3个龙头才能赚大钱，其它赚小钱或生存艰难地维持着。</p><p>竞争是好事，促进行业快速发展，优胜劣汰，<b>而光伏是个完全市场化充分竟争的行业，中国光伏行业是全球竞争力最强的。</b></p><p>未来单晶多晶会并存， 就像安卓和 iOS，这二种组件晶科都有。</p><p>这二年光伏行业技术进步突破成本下降较快，国产化设备替代原昂贵进口设备，高效多晶金刚线切割+黑硅+PERC 下半年也要出货了，未来 2-3 年组件可能降至 2 块，光伏正在转变为普通消费品。</p><p><b>03 光伏行业投资机会及未来发展变化</b></p><p>光伏这个行业太惨了，过去十年不管是产业还是投资者，都是白骨累累。</p><p>基金对光伏都有心理阴影了，看每个光伏公司都感觉像尚德。难道互联网不是这样吗，现电商龙头都知是阿里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>，当年可是8848啊，让IDG投资损失最大的一笔投资。</p><p>一个成功的投资者，最重要的素质之一就是：打破思维惯性。</p><p>2015 年 SUNE 从 100 亿跌到现在 1500 万跌了 98%，老美不敢碰光伏股是有原因的，绿光资本的 David Einhorn 曾经持有2484万股的 SunEdison，先锋基金（Vanguard）曾经持有2035万股，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">黑石</a> （BlackRock）曾经持有 2062 万股，这些大基金在 SunEdison 上面，亏损超过 20 亿美金，美国基金已经对光伏有心理阴影了。</p><p>尚德赛维不是做业务破产，是做期货。硅料高价签了很多长单和设备很贵时高负债搞多晶硅生产。</p><p><b>剩下光伏公司都经历了十年二次洗牌从死人堆里爬出来的，晶科从全球11 名干到全球第一，都是靠能力打下来的。</b></p><p>京东亏了多少年今年才赚钱？现在少赚钱是为了以后赚大钱，在行业高速增长时抢份额比赚钱更重要。</p><p>很多人说光伏要补贴不看好，但我告诉你，<b>光伏要从全球产业和市场角度看，</b>不能只看中国市场，现海外很多国家已平价上网了，而电动汽车现火爆也属于发展阶段也需要补贴。</p><p><b>残酷的洗牌对优秀企业是好事，淘汰落后产能行业集中度提升组件龙头更能有更合理的毛利。</b>现光伏行业毛利都集中在上游不正常，卖硅料的，卖炉子和金刚切割都有40%以上毛利，组件龙头现才10%左右，1-2 年后中游组件龙头晶科毛利应可恢复到20%+，10 年晶科毛利28%， 纯利18%。</p><p>近二年抢市场份额最为重要，行业集中度提高才有高利润，光伏系统配套的逆变器通过几年血拼前十占了 80%份额，老二是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300274\">阳光电源</a>纯利都10%了。</p><p>光伏组件也会这样演变，行业集中度一定会提升，规律无法阻挡。第2-3名会活得很好，利润很高，第4以后就刷存在感了。光伏拐点已现，是逆向+成长的行业。坚信光伏会平价上网，坚信晶科会戴维斯双击。</p><p>国内市场投资者之前一直只关注地面电站，今年分布式光伏和扶贫光伏都迎来爆发式增长，国内分布式主要是工厂，医院和学校屋顶及农村空地或屋顶，集中式主要在西部沙漠等无人区。</p><p>但未来我更看好在日照好的沙漠这些地方建大型光伏电站，今年前晶科中标沙特全球最大光伏发电站，发电量为 1,177 MW，全球第一大产油国建全球第一大光伏电站，这是什么信号？未来通过特高压非洲各国可轻松用光伏电站发电自用外还可卖给欧洲，光伏正在逐步替代传统能源。</p><p>以前 20 年是信息互联时代，未来中国特高压将会推动能源互联时代，很多不敢投资 JKS 的人担心光伏组件一直在降价，技术推动进步的降价是好事，发电成本更便宜会更多投资建设光伏电站，也加快行业整合，落后产能被淘汰，优秀公司会胜出成为龙头。</p><p>如 20 年前手机刚出时大哥大几万一台按现购买力相当几十万只有极少数人才买得起，这些年价 格大幅下降后人人都用得起。</p><p><b>04 晶科竟争优势</b></p><p>买晶科我就看二个核心问题：一是坚信光伏会平价上网成为平价能源，目前光伏只占用电量 1%，但已比十几年前增长上百倍了；二是再血战二年淘汰落后产能完成行业集中度提升龙头有10%纯利。</p><p>第一个目标 3-5 年 10 倍，第二个目标 5-8 年 30 倍。</p><p>光伏组件厂商今年没有单晶 PERC 的会掉队，明后多晶没上PERC 的又会掉队，未来的玩家越来越少，行业集中度会越来越高，国外光伏厂家去年底开始很多关闭或减产，这部份量又让中国公司吃了，去年全球前五大厂中晶科吃得最多。</p><p>晶科从无名小卒干到全球老大是有大格局和超前视野创始人及能干的国际化团队，晶科有 17 个博士光伏专家组成强大研发团队，晶科成本控制做得非常好，公司管理层超前眼光，很早就在马来西亚建厂和海外建立营销公司布局海外市场，布局几年后如今已开始发力，今年出货量9-10GW会比第二名高出很多。</p><p>晶科主要生产基地在江西上饶，用地成本低，每亩只要6万，其它多数光伏企业在浙江和江苏，土地价格是上饶十倍，还有上饶员工成本也比较低。业务能力超强。毛利一直比天合，阿特斯这些一线大厂高，买龙头晶科的安全边际和上涨空间更大。</p><p>晶科今年Q1出口占65%，在美国市场份额第一，sPower 作为去年也买了晶科 1GW 组件，我更相信专业行家选择。</p><p>晶科上月底签署全球单体最大光伏电站阿布扎比项目，该光伏项目容量 为 1,177 兆瓦(DC)，投资 8.7 亿美元和去年初与美国领先的独立发电公司 sPower 签订上限一吉瓦的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>光伏组件供货条约。</p><p>四年前刚开始研究光伏行业时这类全球最大的电站用的组件都是 FSLR 和 SPWR 的，近二年中国光伏企业用质优价廉的产品赢得了全球越来越多大客户。</p><p>便宜不说，就算是他们愿意买 SPWR 的组件，这笔订单相当他半年产量，怎么交付，<b>光伏这种先进制造业欧美根本没法和中国企业竟争。</b></p><p>除了全球单体最大的光伏电站阿布扎比项目以外，晶科能源此前还成功中标拉美最大的单体光伏项目墨西哥 188MW 电站。</p><p>尚德施振荣做首富当光伏行业老大时晶科刚创业，一共才融4亿美元干到31亿销售全球光伏老大还是全行业利润第一，靠的是真本事。</p><p><b>大牛股都始于在无人关注的行业，优秀公司如熊猫般珍贵，能长期超越行业增长的公司跑出来的机会最高。</b>成功的交易需要对行业和公司未来发展的分析判断，更需要信心和勇气。</p><p>所有行业都是周期性的，12年初我买360时15元也是没人看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>（00700.HK）股价当时也跌了一半，关键这个行业未来有巨大间在行业低谷时买龙头才可赚大钱。</p><p>晶科今年出货量有 10GW，那和第二名差距拉开较大了，我预测晶科5年内可做到500亿销售额，50亿纯利。</p><p>5 月中去调研回来，今年出货 10GW 增长50%占全球份额 13%，工厂 24 小时二班倒赶货，生意火爆堪比茅台，但现利润薄如塑料花。</p><p><b>现阶段我最看重市占率。</b>晶科2016年 216 亿收入，18.6 亿纯利，比A股港股一些千亿市值公司业绩和利润都更高。而作为全球龙头晶科在3-5年后有机会能成为一家千亿市值的公司。</p><p>投资这个行当门栏最低，但要持续做好很难。<b>要么消失，要么更强，没有平庸。</b>好公司也要有合理价格才会买，现很多优秀公司股价已反映未来二年的利润预期了。</p><p>在投资这个行当经历了足够多后，对人人都看好的热门股我是不关注了，大部份股票投资亏损并非买错股，而是股价涨了很多甚至透支时追高。</p><p>去留意那些曾经辉煌过但如今被冷落的行业，选出龙头买入，皆因我相信所有行业都有周期，周而复始。投龙头必须是经历过行业周期存活超越行业增长，赚过10亿大钱的企业，这类企业未来赚50 亿，100亿机会更大些。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c13588f559343a96ce06d72d3cf4d5","relate_stocks":{"JKS":"晶科能源"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2075391879","content_text":"编者按：这是一篇写于3年前（2017年7月）的文章，当时晶科能源的股价大约在21美元附近，而截至10月13日美股收盘，晶科能源股价为62.65美元，三年收益大概三倍（不计分红）。当年投资人国老对于晶科的买入规模一度达到举牌，当时备受争议，如今三年的坚守收获颇丰，现在回头看来当年国老的文章，对于产业格局和发展方向的分析颇具洞察力。下面的文字节选自当年的分析文章，算是事后对当初逻辑的一个验证和复盘，对于普通投资者来说，亦可学习到当时国老的分析思路。01 光伏行业这十年我见证过光伏行业十年间的大起大落，这个行业在争议一直在快速发展，不论是技术或新装机量，都远远超出行业最乐观者的预测。这里曾经在十年内诞生过施正荣、彭小峰和李河君等3位中国首富，光速崛起，然后又迅速破产抑或深陷造假漩涡。下面我从光伏行业发展的三个阶段来分析近12年来光伏行业的变迁。光伏发电发展经历了三个阶段：一、全球的最早商业化应用是 2001年始在德国，西班牙等欧洲发达国家，一直到 08 年全球经济危机前，欧洲光伏需求占全球90%份额，生产光伏所需硅料和主要生产设备也主要是欧洲厂家。当时光伏发电成本折合5元人民币，可以说是能源中的奢侈品，欧洲人当年为何掏那么多钱补贴光伏？我想主要有二点，一是经济好了对环境健康更为重视，在能源结构中更多采用光伏，风电等清洁能源，二是决策者们相信光伏这个行业会从奢侈品进化到廉价能源与火电有竟争力，通过前期补贴让更多企业参与进来在欧洲扶持光伏产业，但很不幸是最后让中国人摘了果子。二、2008年美国次贷引发全球经济危机后欧洲各国减少或停止对光伏补贴，美国为走出经济低谷，大印钞票，美国接力欧洲也大规模发展光伏，这时的光伏度电成本应降至2块人民币。三、2012 年欧美共同针对中国光伏企业双反，当年的光伏市场90%在欧美，这对中国光伏企业来说真是毁灭性打击，导致尚德，赛维等光伏企业倒闭。但他们的倒闭根源并不是在光伏业务本身，应该是说他们死在做硅料期货和投资上，在硅料高位时签了硅料大量长单和投资硅料生产，通俗地形容就是做硅料期货爆仓了。目前中国企业生产了全球 80%光伏组件，不论是技术还是生产效率都是全球最强的，也是新兴行业中国在全球最具竟争力的行业。相较全球目前光伏发电占比 1%，最早应用光伏的德国也只有7%发电来自光伏，如今非洲，中东和印度日照时间长光伏发电已低于火电直接跳过火电上光伏了。下一个五年，光伏将从新能源转变为主要能源，借用比尔盖茨说过的一句话：人们总是高估一个新技术出来的前5年，却低估了这个技术后5年的发展。02 光伏行业现状和技术进步上游硅料相当于挖矿炼铜的，硅料技术有迭代较快且投资巨大，中游是发电机组，这块业务的技术是由整个产业链共同推进的，不可能哪家技术垄断，成本控制得好，品牌和渠道有优势的公司如晶科（JKS.US）未来空间更大。中游就像是做中央空调的，品牌作用应很重要，毕竟装了后要发电25-30 年，EPC 或电站业主肯定要选有实力厂家和质量售后有保证的产品；下游是发电厂下游是公用事业回报率，收益好比高息债，稳定但要爆发增长也很难。目前光伏行业的利润都集中在上游的设备，辅料，硅料和单晶硅片等厂家，做组件的厂家毛利最低最苦，我分析过上游这些厂家近二年的扩产计划，他们的好日子快到头了，硅料40%毛利，单晶硅片35%毛利是不可持续的。组件行业快苦尽甘来了，光伏组件行业再经过 2-3 年血拼后行业集中度提升龙头晶科毛利应会恢复到 20%+，而纯利应有 10%左右。国内光伏公司去年将美德日光伏巨头干到破产或减产亏损，光伏产业链现从上游硅料生产效率和成本，光伏组件转化等技术已全面超过海外同行技术方面，近年来光伏电池转化效率每年以1至1.5个百分点的速度提高，目前已经达到 20%以上；成本方面，全球的光伏发电成本在过去的5年下降75%。任何行业都在竟争，但竟争最后会形成2-3个龙头才能赚大钱，其它赚小钱或生存艰难地维持着。竞争是好事，促进行业快速发展，优胜劣汰，而光伏是个完全市场化充分竟争的行业，中国光伏行业是全球竞争力最强的。未来单晶多晶会并存， 就像安卓和 iOS，这二种组件晶科都有。这二年光伏行业技术进步突破成本下降较快，国产化设备替代原昂贵进口设备，高效多晶金刚线切割+黑硅+PERC 下半年也要出货了，未来 2-3 年组件可能降至 2 块，光伏正在转变为普通消费品。03 光伏行业投资机会及未来发展变化光伏这个行业太惨了，过去十年不管是产业还是投资者，都是白骨累累。基金对光伏都有心理阴影了，看每个光伏公司都感觉像尚德。难道互联网不是这样吗，现电商龙头都知是阿里京东，当年可是8848啊，让IDG投资损失最大的一笔投资。一个成功的投资者，最重要的素质之一就是：打破思维惯性。2015 年 SUNE 从 100 亿跌到现在 1500 万跌了 98%，老美不敢碰光伏股是有原因的，绿光资本的 David Einhorn 曾经持有2484万股的 SunEdison，先锋基金（Vanguard）曾经持有2035万股，黑石 （BlackRock）曾经持有 2062 万股，这些大基金在 SunEdison 上面，亏损超过 20 亿美金，美国基金已经对光伏有心理阴影了。尚德赛维不是做业务破产，是做期货。硅料高价签了很多长单和设备很贵时高负债搞多晶硅生产。剩下光伏公司都经历了十年二次洗牌从死人堆里爬出来的，晶科从全球11 名干到全球第一，都是靠能力打下来的。京东亏了多少年今年才赚钱？现在少赚钱是为了以后赚大钱，在行业高速增长时抢份额比赚钱更重要。很多人说光伏要补贴不看好，但我告诉你，光伏要从全球产业和市场角度看，不能只看中国市场，现海外很多国家已平价上网了，而电动汽车现火爆也属于发展阶段也需要补贴。残酷的洗牌对优秀企业是好事，淘汰落后产能行业集中度提升组件龙头更能有更合理的毛利。现光伏行业毛利都集中在上游不正常，卖硅料的，卖炉子和金刚切割都有40%以上毛利，组件龙头现才10%左右，1-2 年后中游组件龙头晶科毛利应可恢复到20%+，10 年晶科毛利28%， 纯利18%。近二年抢市场份额最为重要，行业集中度提高才有高利润，光伏系统配套的逆变器通过几年血拼前十占了 80%份额，老二是阳光电源纯利都10%了。光伏组件也会这样演变，行业集中度一定会提升，规律无法阻挡。第2-3名会活得很好，利润很高，第4以后就刷存在感了。光伏拐点已现，是逆向+成长的行业。坚信光伏会平价上网，坚信晶科会戴维斯双击。国内市场投资者之前一直只关注地面电站，今年分布式光伏和扶贫光伏都迎来爆发式增长，国内分布式主要是工厂，医院和学校屋顶及农村空地或屋顶，集中式主要在西部沙漠等无人区。但未来我更看好在日照好的沙漠这些地方建大型光伏电站，今年前晶科中标沙特全球最大光伏发电站，发电量为 1,177 MW，全球第一大产油国建全球第一大光伏电站，这是什么信号？未来通过特高压非洲各国可轻松用光伏电站发电自用外还可卖给欧洲，光伏正在逐步替代传统能源。以前 20 年是信息互联时代，未来中国特高压将会推动能源互联时代，很多不敢投资 JKS 的人担心光伏组件一直在降价，技术推动进步的降价是好事，发电成本更便宜会更多投资建设光伏电站，也加快行业整合，落后产能被淘汰，优秀公司会胜出成为龙头。如 20 年前手机刚出时大哥大几万一台按现购买力相当几十万只有极少数人才买得起，这些年价 格大幅下降后人人都用得起。04 晶科竟争优势买晶科我就看二个核心问题：一是坚信光伏会平价上网成为平价能源，目前光伏只占用电量 1%，但已比十几年前增长上百倍了；二是再血战二年淘汰落后产能完成行业集中度提升龙头有10%纯利。第一个目标 3-5 年 10 倍，第二个目标 5-8 年 30 倍。光伏组件厂商今年没有单晶 PERC 的会掉队，明后多晶没上PERC 的又会掉队，未来的玩家越来越少，行业集中度会越来越高，国外光伏厂家去年底开始很多关闭或减产，这部份量又让中国公司吃了，去年全球前五大厂中晶科吃得最多。晶科从无名小卒干到全球老大是有大格局和超前视野创始人及能干的国际化团队，晶科有 17 个博士光伏专家组成强大研发团队，晶科成本控制做得非常好，公司管理层超前眼光，很早就在马来西亚建厂和海外建立营销公司布局海外市场，布局几年后如今已开始发力，今年出货量9-10GW会比第二名高出很多。晶科主要生产基地在江西上饶，用地成本低，每亩只要6万，其它多数光伏企业在浙江和江苏，土地价格是上饶十倍，还有上饶员工成本也比较低。业务能力超强。毛利一直比天合，阿特斯这些一线大厂高，买龙头晶科的安全边际和上涨空间更大。晶科今年Q1出口占65%，在美国市场份额第一，sPower 作为去年也买了晶科 1GW 组件，我更相信专业行家选择。晶科上月底签署全球单体最大光伏电站阿布扎比项目，该光伏项目容量 为 1,177 兆瓦(DC)，投资 8.7 亿美元和去年初与美国领先的独立发电公司 sPower 签订上限一吉瓦的太阳能光伏组件供货条约。四年前刚开始研究光伏行业时这类全球最大的电站用的组件都是 FSLR 和 SPWR 的，近二年中国光伏企业用质优价廉的产品赢得了全球越来越多大客户。便宜不说，就算是他们愿意买 SPWR 的组件，这笔订单相当他半年产量，怎么交付，光伏这种先进制造业欧美根本没法和中国企业竟争。除了全球单体最大的光伏电站阿布扎比项目以外，晶科能源此前还成功中标拉美最大的单体光伏项目墨西哥 188MW 电站。尚德施振荣做首富当光伏行业老大时晶科刚创业，一共才融4亿美元干到31亿销售全球光伏老大还是全行业利润第一，靠的是真本事。大牛股都始于在无人关注的行业，优秀公司如熊猫般珍贵，能长期超越行业增长的公司跑出来的机会最高。成功的交易需要对行业和公司未来发展的分析判断，更需要信心和勇气。所有行业都是周期性的，12年初我买360时15元也是没人看，腾讯（00700.HK）股价当时也跌了一半，关键这个行业未来有巨大间在行业低谷时买龙头才可赚大钱。晶科今年出货量有 10GW，那和第二名差距拉开较大了，我预测晶科5年内可做到500亿销售额，50亿纯利。5 月中去调研回来，今年出货 10GW 增长50%占全球份额 13%，工厂 24 小时二班倒赶货，生意火爆堪比茅台，但现利润薄如塑料花。现阶段我最看重市占率。晶科2016年 216 亿收入，18.6 亿纯利，比A股港股一些千亿市值公司业绩和利润都更高。而作为全球龙头晶科在3-5年后有机会能成为一家千亿市值的公司。投资这个行当门栏最低，但要持续做好很难。要么消失，要么更强，没有平庸。好公司也要有合理价格才会买，现很多优秀公司股价已反映未来二年的利润预期了。在投资这个行当经历了足够多后，对人人都看好的热门股我是不关注了，大部份股票投资亏损并非买错股，而是股价涨了很多甚至透支时追高。去留意那些曾经辉煌过但如今被冷落的行业，选出龙头买入，皆因我相信所有行业都有周期，周而复始。投龙头必须是经历过行业周期存活超越行业增长，赚过10亿大钱的企业，这类企业未来赚50 亿，100亿机会更大些。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}