+关注
杨定
暂无个人介绍
IP属地:湖南
13
关注
1
粉丝
0
主题
0
勋章
主贴
热门
杨定
2021-08-02
大部分观点还是比较认可,但也有几个问题值得一说。首先碳酸锂价格2017年最高超过17万而不是14万。第二,赣锋锂业在碳酸锂价格未创新高股价就创新高的原因很多,比如产量产能大幅提升,原材料自给率提升等,结果就是今年二季度单季利润已经接近历史最高全年利润,且后续有继续提高可能,加上资本市场在疫情期间给予锂电行业超常估值,简单来说就是量价齐升,外加戴维斯双击。第四,锂资源总量是否能满足未来电动化需求,包括目前业内专业人士存在较大分歧,并没有一致结论,但包括马斯克在内的主流意见认为无需担忧,这也是前些年锂价大幅下跌至成本线附近甚至以下的一个重要原因。最后,钠离子电池的未来前景还很难说,就宁德时代目前已经公开的内容来看,能量密度160属于实验室水平,并非量产水平,如果同以实验室水平对比,仅相当于锂电池的一半,且考虑到锂电池产业链完善,由实验室进入量产阶段很快,也就是说当前实验室钠电池必须与未来1到3年的实验室锂电池相比有综合竞争力(包括性能,成本等)才有机会在赛道有一席之地。
抱歉,原内容已删除
杨定
2021-08-12
我作为一个坚定的锂电行业长期投资者,也不能完全认同作者的观点。我认为锂电比大多数人的认知要重要的多,比如那些广受吹捧氢能、钠电池之类的方案,都很可能无法真正替代锂电。成熟可靠的量产技术逐年小幅改进的可能性,远比突破性新技术形成替代的可能性大的多,比如当年的液晶和等离子电视。其次,现在之所以出现这么多锂电方面的负面观点,我认为与板块整体的过度涨幅有关,这又有点类似于2000年的互联网泡沫。行业里面充斥着不少垃圾公司也能暴力上涨,让踏空者嫉妒无语,这是很正常的,但是行业本身确实是十分有价值的。因此泡沫破灭虽然使几乎所有公司都十分痛苦,但真正的优质的企业将穿越牛熊,更加高速的成长,比如苹果、谷歌、微软、亚马逊。但是即使如此,我觉得锂电也无法上升到国家博弈本质的程度上来,最多可以认为是国家博弈中的一个核心点而已。
抱歉,原内容已删除
杨定
2021-09-01
好像没谈和20年前的互联网有什么关联。
抱歉,原内容已删除
杨定
2022-11-08
这是不是一个月前说碳酸锂不会超过50万的秘书长?
抱歉,原内容已删除
杨定
2022-04-06
可是按市值算,特斯拉一年多以前就已经是老大了。
抱歉,原内容已删除
杨定
2022-01-19
作为锂电方向的长期投资者觉得深受启发,当年也曾眼见苹果产业链的起落,但自己当时太年轻,没有长期投资的准备,不仅错过,连过程都所知很少。所以有个不情之请是否能够实现?那就是希望作者能写一篇当年苹果产业链的详细复盘座位接下来投资锂电行业的重要参考依据。
抱歉,原内容已删除
杨定
2021-09-12
最近老虎上看到很多跑题文章,说了半天也没说几点为何落后。
抱歉,原内容已删除
杨定
2021-08-12
前无古人可以说,后无来者不能乱说,说不定锂电板块马上刷新记录。
抱歉,原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"300359662539952","uuid":"300359662539952","gmtCreate":1466901553496,"gmtModify":1468054054351,"name":"杨定","pinyin":"ydyangding","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":13,"tweetSize":8,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖(非转发)","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":89,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.04.29","exceedPercentage":"60.90%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.17","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001}],"userBadgeCount":3,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"湖南","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":664894082,"gmtCreate":1667907803947,"gmtModify":1667907806567,"author":{"id":"300359662539952","authorId":"300359662539952","name":"杨定","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"300359662539952","authorIdStr":"300359662539952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这是不是一个月前说碳酸锂不会超过50万的秘书长?","listText":"这是不是一个月前说碳酸锂不会超过50万的秘书长?","text":"这是不是一个月前说碳酸锂不会超过50万的秘书长?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664894082","repostId":"1184151461","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619618056,"gmtCreate":1649231904173,"gmtModify":1649231904173,"author":{"id":"300359662539952","authorId":"300359662539952","name":"杨定","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"300359662539952","authorIdStr":"300359662539952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可是按市值算,特斯拉一年多以前就已经是老大了。","listText":"可是按市值算,特斯拉一年多以前就已经是老大了。","text":"可是按市值算,特斯拉一年多以前就已经是老大了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619618056","repostId":"1186631814","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":697737616,"gmtCreate":1642589028463,"gmtModify":1642589028463,"author":{"id":"300359662539952","authorId":"300359662539952","name":"杨定","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"300359662539952","authorIdStr":"300359662539952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"作为锂电方向的长期投资者觉得深受启发,当年也曾眼见苹果产业链的起落,但自己当时太年轻,没有长期投资的准备,不仅错过,连过程都所知很少。所以有个不情之请是否能够实现?那就是希望作者能写一篇当年苹果产业链的详细复盘座位接下来投资锂电行业的重要参考依据。","listText":"作为锂电方向的长期投资者觉得深受启发,当年也曾眼见苹果产业链的起落,但自己当时太年轻,没有长期投资的准备,不仅错过,连过程都所知很少。所以有个不情之请是否能够实现?那就是希望作者能写一篇当年苹果产业链的详细复盘座位接下来投资锂电行业的重要参考依据。","text":"作为锂电方向的长期投资者觉得深受启发,当年也曾眼见苹果产业链的起落,但自己当时太年轻,没有长期投资的准备,不仅错过,连过程都所知很少。所以有个不情之请是否能够实现?那就是希望作者能写一篇当年苹果产业链的详细复盘座位接下来投资锂电行业的重要参考依据。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697737616","repostId":"1148563608","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":888102592,"gmtCreate":1631450251116,"gmtModify":1631450251116,"author":{"id":"300359662539952","authorId":"300359662539952","name":"杨定","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"300359662539952","authorIdStr":"300359662539952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最近老虎上看到很多跑题文章,说了半天也没说几点为何落后。","listText":"最近老虎上看到很多跑题文章,说了半天也没说几点为何落后。","text":"最近老虎上看到很多跑题文章,说了半天也没说几点为何落后。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888102592","repostId":"1111026066","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":816590254,"gmtCreate":1630506162778,"gmtModify":1630506162778,"author":{"id":"300359662539952","authorId":"300359662539952","name":"杨定","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"300359662539952","authorIdStr":"300359662539952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好像没谈和20年前的互联网有什么关联。","listText":"好像没谈和20年前的互联网有什么关联。","text":"好像没谈和20年前的互联网有什么关联。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816590254","repostId":"1133375898","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":894094030,"gmtCreate":1628776896320,"gmtModify":1628778968375,"author":{"id":"300359662539952","authorId":"300359662539952","name":"杨定","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"300359662539952","authorIdStr":"300359662539952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我作为一个坚定的锂电行业长期投资者,也不能完全认同作者的观点。我认为锂电比大多数人的认知要重要的多,比如那些广受吹捧氢能、钠电池之类的方案,都很可能无法真正替代锂电。成熟可靠的量产技术逐年小幅改进的可能性,远比突破性新技术形成替代的可能性大的多,比如当年的液晶和等离子电视。其次,现在之所以出现这么多锂电方面的负面观点,我认为与板块整体的过度涨幅有关,这又有点类似于2000年的互联网泡沫。行业里面充斥着不少垃圾公司也能暴力上涨,让踏空者嫉妒无语,这是很正常的,但是行业本身确实是十分有价值的。因此泡沫破灭虽然使几乎所有公司都十分痛苦,但真正的优质的企业将穿越牛熊,更加高速的成长,比如苹果、谷歌、微软、亚马逊。但是即使如此,我觉得锂电也无法上升到国家博弈本质的程度上来,最多可以认为是国家博弈中的一个核心点而已。","listText":"我作为一个坚定的锂电行业长期投资者,也不能完全认同作者的观点。我认为锂电比大多数人的认知要重要的多,比如那些广受吹捧氢能、钠电池之类的方案,都很可能无法真正替代锂电。成熟可靠的量产技术逐年小幅改进的可能性,远比突破性新技术形成替代的可能性大的多,比如当年的液晶和等离子电视。其次,现在之所以出现这么多锂电方面的负面观点,我认为与板块整体的过度涨幅有关,这又有点类似于2000年的互联网泡沫。行业里面充斥着不少垃圾公司也能暴力上涨,让踏空者嫉妒无语,这是很正常的,但是行业本身确实是十分有价值的。因此泡沫破灭虽然使几乎所有公司都十分痛苦,但真正的优质的企业将穿越牛熊,更加高速的成长,比如苹果、谷歌、微软、亚马逊。但是即使如此,我觉得锂电也无法上升到国家博弈本质的程度上来,最多可以认为是国家博弈中的一个核心点而已。","text":"我作为一个坚定的锂电行业长期投资者,也不能完全认同作者的观点。我认为锂电比大多数人的认知要重要的多,比如那些广受吹捧氢能、钠电池之类的方案,都很可能无法真正替代锂电。成熟可靠的量产技术逐年小幅改进的可能性,远比突破性新技术形成替代的可能性大的多,比如当年的液晶和等离子电视。其次,现在之所以出现这么多锂电方面的负面观点,我认为与板块整体的过度涨幅有关,这又有点类似于2000年的互联网泡沫。行业里面充斥着不少垃圾公司也能暴力上涨,让踏空者嫉妒无语,这是很正常的,但是行业本身确实是十分有价值的。因此泡沫破灭虽然使几乎所有公司都十分痛苦,但真正的优质的企业将穿越牛熊,更加高速的成长,比如苹果、谷歌、微软、亚马逊。但是即使如此,我觉得锂电也无法上升到国家博弈本质的程度上来,最多可以认为是国家博弈中的一个核心点而已。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894094030","repostId":"2158232300","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":895342167,"gmtCreate":1628726412959,"gmtModify":1628726412959,"author":{"id":"300359662539952","authorId":"300359662539952","name":"杨定","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"300359662539952","authorIdStr":"300359662539952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"前无古人可以说,后无来者不能乱说,说不定锂电板块马上刷新记录。","listText":"前无古人可以说,后无来者不能乱说,说不定锂电板块马上刷新记录。","text":"前无古人可以说,后无来者不能乱说,说不定锂电板块马上刷新记录。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895342167","repostId":"2158400606","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":805296707,"gmtCreate":1627881420709,"gmtModify":1627881420709,"author":{"id":"300359662539952","authorId":"300359662539952","name":"杨定","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"300359662539952","authorIdStr":"300359662539952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大部分观点还是比较认可,但也有几个问题值得一说。首先碳酸锂价格2017年最高超过17万而不是14万。第二,赣锋锂业在碳酸锂价格未创新高股价就创新高的原因很多,比如产量产能大幅提升,原材料自给率提升等,结果就是今年二季度单季利润已经接近历史最高全年利润,且后续有继续提高可能,加上资本市场在疫情期间给予锂电行业超常估值,简单来说就是量价齐升,外加戴维斯双击。第四,锂资源总量是否能满足未来电动化需求,包括目前业内专业人士存在较大分歧,并没有一致结论,但包括马斯克在内的主流意见认为无需担忧,这也是前些年锂价大幅下跌至成本线附近甚至以下的一个重要原因。最后,钠离子电池的未来前景还很难说,就宁德时代目前已经公开的内容来看,能量密度160属于实验室水平,并非量产水平,如果同以实验室水平对比,仅相当于锂电池的一半,且考虑到锂电池产业链完善,由实验室进入量产阶段很快,也就是说当前实验室钠电池必须与未来1到3年的实验室锂电池相比有综合竞争力(包括性能,成本等)才有机会在赛道有一席之地。","listText":"大部分观点还是比较认可,但也有几个问题值得一说。首先碳酸锂价格2017年最高超过17万而不是14万。第二,赣锋锂业在碳酸锂价格未创新高股价就创新高的原因很多,比如产量产能大幅提升,原材料自给率提升等,结果就是今年二季度单季利润已经接近历史最高全年利润,且后续有继续提高可能,加上资本市场在疫情期间给予锂电行业超常估值,简单来说就是量价齐升,外加戴维斯双击。第四,锂资源总量是否能满足未来电动化需求,包括目前业内专业人士存在较大分歧,并没有一致结论,但包括马斯克在内的主流意见认为无需担忧,这也是前些年锂价大幅下跌至成本线附近甚至以下的一个重要原因。最后,钠离子电池的未来前景还很难说,就宁德时代目前已经公开的内容来看,能量密度160属于实验室水平,并非量产水平,如果同以实验室水平对比,仅相当于锂电池的一半,且考虑到锂电池产业链完善,由实验室进入量产阶段很快,也就是说当前实验室钠电池必须与未来1到3年的实验室锂电池相比有综合竞争力(包括性能,成本等)才有机会在赛道有一席之地。","text":"大部分观点还是比较认可,但也有几个问题值得一说。首先碳酸锂价格2017年最高超过17万而不是14万。第二,赣锋锂业在碳酸锂价格未创新高股价就创新高的原因很多,比如产量产能大幅提升,原材料自给率提升等,结果就是今年二季度单季利润已经接近历史最高全年利润,且后续有继续提高可能,加上资本市场在疫情期间给予锂电行业超常估值,简单来说就是量价齐升,外加戴维斯双击。第四,锂资源总量是否能满足未来电动化需求,包括目前业内专业人士存在较大分歧,并没有一致结论,但包括马斯克在内的主流意见认为无需担忧,这也是前些年锂价大幅下跌至成本线附近甚至以下的一个重要原因。最后,钠离子电池的未来前景还很难说,就宁德时代目前已经公开的内容来看,能量密度160属于实验室水平,并非量产水平,如果同以实验室水平对比,仅相当于锂电池的一半,且考虑到锂电池产业链完善,由实验室进入量产阶段很快,也就是说当前实验室钠电池必须与未来1到3年的实验室锂电池相比有综合竞争力(包括性能,成本等)才有机会在赛道有一席之地。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805296707","repostId":"2156167579","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000217","authorId":"9000000000000217","name":"花儿对我笑0","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/709638153318cdfce2439b29cba43798","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000217","authorIdStr":"9000000000000217"},"content":"赣锋锂业在碳酸锂价格未创新高股价就创新高的原因我认为还和最近的板块热度也有一定的关系。","text":"赣锋锂业在碳酸锂价格未创新高股价就创新高的原因我认为还和最近的板块热度也有一定的关系。","html":"赣锋锂业在碳酸锂价格未创新高股价就创新高的原因我认为还和最近的板块热度也有一定的关系。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":805296707,"gmtCreate":1627881420709,"gmtModify":1627881420709,"author":{"id":"300359662539952","authorId":"300359662539952","name":"杨定","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"300359662539952","idStr":"300359662539952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大部分观点还是比较认可,但也有几个问题值得一说。首先碳酸锂价格2017年最高超过17万而不是14万。第二,赣锋锂业在碳酸锂价格未创新高股价就创新高的原因很多,比如产量产能大幅提升,原材料自给率提升等,结果就是今年二季度单季利润已经接近历史最高全年利润,且后续有继续提高可能,加上资本市场在疫情期间给予锂电行业超常估值,简单来说就是量价齐升,外加戴维斯双击。第四,锂资源总量是否能满足未来电动化需求,包括目前业内专业人士存在较大分歧,并没有一致结论,但包括马斯克在内的主流意见认为无需担忧,这也是前些年锂价大幅下跌至成本线附近甚至以下的一个重要原因。最后,钠离子电池的未来前景还很难说,就宁德时代目前已经公开的内容来看,能量密度160属于实验室水平,并非量产水平,如果同以实验室水平对比,仅相当于锂电池的一半,且考虑到锂电池产业链完善,由实验室进入量产阶段很快,也就是说当前实验室钠电池必须与未来1到3年的实验室锂电池相比有综合竞争力(包括性能,成本等)才有机会在赛道有一席之地。","listText":"大部分观点还是比较认可,但也有几个问题值得一说。首先碳酸锂价格2017年最高超过17万而不是14万。第二,赣锋锂业在碳酸锂价格未创新高股价就创新高的原因很多,比如产量产能大幅提升,原材料自给率提升等,结果就是今年二季度单季利润已经接近历史最高全年利润,且后续有继续提高可能,加上资本市场在疫情期间给予锂电行业超常估值,简单来说就是量价齐升,外加戴维斯双击。第四,锂资源总量是否能满足未来电动化需求,包括目前业内专业人士存在较大分歧,并没有一致结论,但包括马斯克在内的主流意见认为无需担忧,这也是前些年锂价大幅下跌至成本线附近甚至以下的一个重要原因。最后,钠离子电池的未来前景还很难说,就宁德时代目前已经公开的内容来看,能量密度160属于实验室水平,并非量产水平,如果同以实验室水平对比,仅相当于锂电池的一半,且考虑到锂电池产业链完善,由实验室进入量产阶段很快,也就是说当前实验室钠电池必须与未来1到3年的实验室锂电池相比有综合竞争力(包括性能,成本等)才有机会在赛道有一席之地。","text":"大部分观点还是比较认可,但也有几个问题值得一说。首先碳酸锂价格2017年最高超过17万而不是14万。第二,赣锋锂业在碳酸锂价格未创新高股价就创新高的原因很多,比如产量产能大幅提升,原材料自给率提升等,结果就是今年二季度单季利润已经接近历史最高全年利润,且后续有继续提高可能,加上资本市场在疫情期间给予锂电行业超常估值,简单来说就是量价齐升,外加戴维斯双击。第四,锂资源总量是否能满足未来电动化需求,包括目前业内专业人士存在较大分歧,并没有一致结论,但包括马斯克在内的主流意见认为无需担忧,这也是前些年锂价大幅下跌至成本线附近甚至以下的一个重要原因。最后,钠离子电池的未来前景还很难说,就宁德时代目前已经公开的内容来看,能量密度160属于实验室水平,并非量产水平,如果同以实验室水平对比,仅相当于锂电池的一半,且考虑到锂电池产业链完善,由实验室进入量产阶段很快,也就是说当前实验室钠电池必须与未来1到3年的实验室锂电池相比有综合竞争力(包括性能,成本等)才有机会在赛道有一席之地。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805296707","repostId":"2156167579","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000217","authorId":"9000000000000217","name":"花儿对我笑0","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/709638153318cdfce2439b29cba43798","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000217","idStr":"9000000000000217"},"content":"赣锋锂业在碳酸锂价格未创新高股价就创新高的原因我认为还和最近的板块热度也有一定的关系。","text":"赣锋锂业在碳酸锂价格未创新高股价就创新高的原因我认为还和最近的板块热度也有一定的关系。","html":"赣锋锂业在碳酸锂价格未创新高股价就创新高的原因我认为还和最近的板块热度也有一定的关系。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":894094030,"gmtCreate":1628776896320,"gmtModify":1628778968375,"author":{"id":"300359662539952","authorId":"300359662539952","name":"杨定","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"300359662539952","idStr":"300359662539952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我作为一个坚定的锂电行业长期投资者,也不能完全认同作者的观点。我认为锂电比大多数人的认知要重要的多,比如那些广受吹捧氢能、钠电池之类的方案,都很可能无法真正替代锂电。成熟可靠的量产技术逐年小幅改进的可能性,远比突破性新技术形成替代的可能性大的多,比如当年的液晶和等离子电视。其次,现在之所以出现这么多锂电方面的负面观点,我认为与板块整体的过度涨幅有关,这又有点类似于2000年的互联网泡沫。行业里面充斥着不少垃圾公司也能暴力上涨,让踏空者嫉妒无语,这是很正常的,但是行业本身确实是十分有价值的。因此泡沫破灭虽然使几乎所有公司都十分痛苦,但真正的优质的企业将穿越牛熊,更加高速的成长,比如苹果、谷歌、微软、亚马逊。但是即使如此,我觉得锂电也无法上升到国家博弈本质的程度上来,最多可以认为是国家博弈中的一个核心点而已。","listText":"我作为一个坚定的锂电行业长期投资者,也不能完全认同作者的观点。我认为锂电比大多数人的认知要重要的多,比如那些广受吹捧氢能、钠电池之类的方案,都很可能无法真正替代锂电。成熟可靠的量产技术逐年小幅改进的可能性,远比突破性新技术形成替代的可能性大的多,比如当年的液晶和等离子电视。其次,现在之所以出现这么多锂电方面的负面观点,我认为与板块整体的过度涨幅有关,这又有点类似于2000年的互联网泡沫。行业里面充斥着不少垃圾公司也能暴力上涨,让踏空者嫉妒无语,这是很正常的,但是行业本身确实是十分有价值的。因此泡沫破灭虽然使几乎所有公司都十分痛苦,但真正的优质的企业将穿越牛熊,更加高速的成长,比如苹果、谷歌、微软、亚马逊。但是即使如此,我觉得锂电也无法上升到国家博弈本质的程度上来,最多可以认为是国家博弈中的一个核心点而已。","text":"我作为一个坚定的锂电行业长期投资者,也不能完全认同作者的观点。我认为锂电比大多数人的认知要重要的多,比如那些广受吹捧氢能、钠电池之类的方案,都很可能无法真正替代锂电。成熟可靠的量产技术逐年小幅改进的可能性,远比突破性新技术形成替代的可能性大的多,比如当年的液晶和等离子电视。其次,现在之所以出现这么多锂电方面的负面观点,我认为与板块整体的过度涨幅有关,这又有点类似于2000年的互联网泡沫。行业里面充斥着不少垃圾公司也能暴力上涨,让踏空者嫉妒无语,这是很正常的,但是行业本身确实是十分有价值的。因此泡沫破灭虽然使几乎所有公司都十分痛苦,但真正的优质的企业将穿越牛熊,更加高速的成长,比如苹果、谷歌、微软、亚马逊。但是即使如此,我觉得锂电也无法上升到国家博弈本质的程度上来,最多可以认为是国家博弈中的一个核心点而已。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894094030","repostId":"2158232300","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":816590254,"gmtCreate":1630506162778,"gmtModify":1630506162778,"author":{"id":"300359662539952","authorId":"300359662539952","name":"杨定","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"300359662539952","idStr":"300359662539952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好像没谈和20年前的互联网有什么关联。","listText":"好像没谈和20年前的互联网有什么关联。","text":"好像没谈和20年前的互联网有什么关联。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816590254","repostId":"1133375898","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":664894082,"gmtCreate":1667907803947,"gmtModify":1667907806567,"author":{"id":"300359662539952","authorId":"300359662539952","name":"杨定","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"300359662539952","idStr":"300359662539952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这是不是一个月前说碳酸锂不会超过50万的秘书长?","listText":"这是不是一个月前说碳酸锂不会超过50万的秘书长?","text":"这是不是一个月前说碳酸锂不会超过50万的秘书长?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664894082","repostId":"1184151461","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619618056,"gmtCreate":1649231904173,"gmtModify":1649231904173,"author":{"id":"300359662539952","authorId":"300359662539952","name":"杨定","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"300359662539952","idStr":"300359662539952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可是按市值算,特斯拉一年多以前就已经是老大了。","listText":"可是按市值算,特斯拉一年多以前就已经是老大了。","text":"可是按市值算,特斯拉一年多以前就已经是老大了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619618056","repostId":"1186631814","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":697737616,"gmtCreate":1642589028463,"gmtModify":1642589028463,"author":{"id":"300359662539952","authorId":"300359662539952","name":"杨定","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"300359662539952","idStr":"300359662539952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"作为锂电方向的长期投资者觉得深受启发,当年也曾眼见苹果产业链的起落,但自己当时太年轻,没有长期投资的准备,不仅错过,连过程都所知很少。所以有个不情之请是否能够实现?那就是希望作者能写一篇当年苹果产业链的详细复盘座位接下来投资锂电行业的重要参考依据。","listText":"作为锂电方向的长期投资者觉得深受启发,当年也曾眼见苹果产业链的起落,但自己当时太年轻,没有长期投资的准备,不仅错过,连过程都所知很少。所以有个不情之请是否能够实现?那就是希望作者能写一篇当年苹果产业链的详细复盘座位接下来投资锂电行业的重要参考依据。","text":"作为锂电方向的长期投资者觉得深受启发,当年也曾眼见苹果产业链的起落,但自己当时太年轻,没有长期投资的准备,不仅错过,连过程都所知很少。所以有个不情之请是否能够实现?那就是希望作者能写一篇当年苹果产业链的详细复盘座位接下来投资锂电行业的重要参考依据。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697737616","repostId":"1148563608","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":888102592,"gmtCreate":1631450251116,"gmtModify":1631450251116,"author":{"id":"300359662539952","authorId":"300359662539952","name":"杨定","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"300359662539952","idStr":"300359662539952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最近老虎上看到很多跑题文章,说了半天也没说几点为何落后。","listText":"最近老虎上看到很多跑题文章,说了半天也没说几点为何落后。","text":"最近老虎上看到很多跑题文章,说了半天也没说几点为何落后。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888102592","repostId":"1111026066","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":895342167,"gmtCreate":1628726412959,"gmtModify":1628726412959,"author":{"id":"300359662539952","authorId":"300359662539952","name":"杨定","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"300359662539952","idStr":"300359662539952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"前无古人可以说,后无来者不能乱说,说不定锂电板块马上刷新记录。","listText":"前无古人可以说,后无来者不能乱说,说不定锂电板块马上刷新记录。","text":"前无古人可以说,后无来者不能乱说,说不定锂电板块马上刷新记录。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895342167","repostId":"2158400606","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}