xinde0908的个人主页 - 老虎社区

xinde0908

xinde0908

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IP属地：天津

22关注

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6主题

0勋章

2021-07-02

$维珍银河(SPCE)$盘后搞偷袭，哈哈[开心]

2021-06-17

$维珍银河(SPCE)$这票也存在轧空吗？今天涨的莫名其妙！

2021-06-03

东家这是要拆自己的台吗？

散户概念股盘前急跌，AMC院线等热门股集体跳水

2021-06-02

敢说“不”字？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-01

$亿邦国际(EBON)$老铁666啊！

2021-03-24

接着吹！

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-24

[捂嘴]

马斯克在推特表示，现在可以用比特币购买特斯拉了

2021-03-17

吹牛皮不上税！

Ebang International Completes 6 nm ASIC Chip Designing for Bitcoin Mining Machines

2021-03-03

神助攻[捂脸] [捂脸] [喷血]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-03

$维珍银河(SPCE)$跌这么多，不反弹点儿意思一下吗？

2021-02-26

$维珍银河(SPCE)$可惜没子弹了。。。

2021-02-23

不讲武德，吃个饭的时间，搞偷袭！

2021-02-02

$维珍银河(SPCE)$这么妖？

2021-01-28

$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$出道即巅峰！

2021-01-26

$维珍银河(SPCE)$集体跳水，发生啥大事了么？

2021-01-16

$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$一副好牌打个稀烂！！！！

2020-05-26

听听就得，还当真了！

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-04-29

$吉利德科学(GILD)$限价79可以买进吗？

2020-04-29

$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$截图留个纪念，省得回调后再看不到了！

2020-04-15

$西方石油(OXY)$沙特来救场了！

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b72e067b0936a86544c3539d8acad7\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>周四晚间消息，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>表示，<b>与B.riley证券和花旗集团签订了股权分配协议，将在场内出售至多1155万股股票。</b>净收益用于一般公司目的，其中可能包括偿还、再融资、赎回或回购现有债务、收购剧院资产、营运资本或资本支出及其他投资。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537ad0b0f865a392242e7815952d23bd","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167294938","content_text":"周四盘前，WSB概念股全线急跌，热门股纷纷跳水。截至发稿，高斯电子跌17%，Express跌15%，3B家居跌13%，游戏驿站跌5%。AMC院线盘前迅速跌超10%。抹去此前20%的涨幅。周四晚间消息，AMC院线表示，与B.riley证券和花旗集团签订了股权分配协议，将在场内出售至多1155万股股票。净收益用于一般公司目的，其中可能包括偿还、再融资、赎回或回购现有债务、收购剧院资产、营运资本或资本支出及其他投资。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":113224010,"gmtCreate":1622621488130,"gmtModify":1622621488130,"author":{"id":"292990704763200","authorId":"292990704763200","name":"xinde0908","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3710900e0ae3d8ea7e527c0bd4eab8cf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"敢说“不”字？","listText":"敢说“不”字？","text":"敢说“不”字？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113224010","repostId":"2140138054","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":357241900,"gmtCreate":1617281611100,"gmtModify":1617281611100,"author":{"id":"292990704763200","authorId":"292990704763200","name":"xinde0908","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3710900e0ae3d8ea7e527c0bd4eab8cf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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15:05","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"马斯克在推特表示，现在可以用比特币购买特斯拉了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113003122","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月24日讯，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在推特表示：现在可以用比特币购买特斯拉了。支付给特斯拉的比特币将保留为比特币，而不是转换为法定货币。今年晚些时候美国以外地区将可以使用比特币支付。","content":"<p>3月24日讯，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>CEO埃隆·马斯克在推特表示：现在可以用比特币购买特斯拉了。</p><p>支付给特斯拉的比特币将保留为比特币，而不是转换为法定货币。</p><p>今年晚些时候美国以外地区将可以使用比特币支付。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克在推特表示，现在可以用比特币购买特斯拉了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克在推特表示，现在可以用比特币购买特斯拉了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-24 15:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>3月24日讯，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>CEO埃隆·马斯克在推特表示：现在可以用比特币购买特斯拉了。</p><p>支付给特斯拉的比特币将保留为比特币，而不是转换为法定货币。</p><p>今年晚些时候美国以外地区将可以使用比特币支付。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e4ab3e53452f4e5554d2f59e6f6d9b","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113003122","content_text":"3月24日讯，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在推特表示：现在可以用比特币购买特斯拉了。支付给特斯拉的比特币将保留为比特币，而不是转换为法定货币。今年晚些时候美国以外地区将可以使用比特币支付。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":917,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324628731,"gmtCreate":1615990434123,"gmtModify":1703496060097,"author":{"id":"292990704763200","authorId":"292990704763200","name":"xinde0908","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3710900e0ae3d8ea7e527c0bd4eab8cf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"吹牛皮不上税！","listText":"吹牛皮不上税！","text":"吹牛皮不上税！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324628731","repostId":"2120818961","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2120818961","pubTimestamp":1615984200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2120818961?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ebang International Completes 6 nm ASIC Chip Designing for Bitcoin Mining Machines","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120818961","media":"GlobeNewswire","summary":"HANGZHOU, China, March 17, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Ebang International Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: EBON,","content":"<html><body><p>HANGZHOU, China, March 17, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Ebang International Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: EBON, the “Company,” “we” or “our”), a blockchain technology company in the global market, today announced that it has completed a 6 nm ASIC chip designed for Bitcoin mining machines, which is expected to have a competitive edge in the market in terms of performance. The Company plans to begin volume production of its 6 nm chip when it determines market conditions become suitable.<br/></p>\n<p>Mr. Dong Hu, Chairman and CEO of the Company, commented, “The completion of our 6 nm ASIC chip is a significant milestone of our constant R&amp;D efforts in recent years. We have devoted a lot of resources in building our R&amp;D team and product innovation and iteration. Looking forward, we plan to continue developing ASIC chips designed for more mainstream cryptocurrency machines, which we believe will increase our revenue in the digital currency business and optimize our product offering structure along the blockchain industry value chain.”</p>\n<p>There is no guarantee that the Company will be able to commercialize its 6 nm ASIC chip design as planned or at all, or that such commercialization will improve the Company’s financial performance or results of operations. Shareholders are cautioned not to place undue reliance on this press release or the forward-looking statements contained herein.</p>\n<p><strong>About Ebang International Holdings Inc.</strong><br/></p>\n<p>Ebang International Holdings Inc. is a blockchain technology company with strong application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) chip design capability. With years of industry experience and expertise in ASIC chip design, it has become a leading bitcoin mining machine producer in the global market with steady access to wafer foundry capacity. With its licensed or registered entities in various jurisdictions, the Company seeks to launch a professional, convenient and innovative digital asset financial service platform to expand into the upstream and the downstream of blockchain and cryptocurrency industry value chain. For more information, please visit <strong>https://ir.ebang.com.cn/</strong>.</p>\n<p><strong><em>Safe Harbor Statement</em></strong><br/></p>\n<p><em>This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and as defined in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements include, without limitation, the Company’s development plans and business outlook, which can be identified by terminology such as “may,” “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “aims,” “potential,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates,” “continue,” “likely to” and other similar expressions. Such statements are not historical facts, and are based upon the Company’s current beliefs, plans and expectations, and the current market and operating conditions. Forward-looking statements involve inherent known or unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, all of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond the Company’s control, which may cause the Company’s actual results, performance and achievements to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Further information regarding these and other risks, uncertainties or factors is included in the Company's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking statements are made only as of the date indicated, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise the information contained in any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required under applicable law.</em></p>\n<p><strong>Investor Relations Contact<br/></strong>For investor and media inquiries, please contact:<br/>Ebang International Holdings Inc.<br/>Email: <strong>ir@ebang.com.cn</strong><strong> </strong></p>\n<p>Ascent Investor Relations LLC<br/>Ms. Tina Xiao<br/>Tel: (917) 609-0333<br/>Email: <strong>tina.xiao@ascent-ir.com</strong><strong> </strong></p>\n<br/>\n<img height=\"1\" src=\"https://ml.globenewswire.com/release/track/234cb4ee-6e85-4fc7-b493-0c9194ada5cd\" width=\"1\"/></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ebang International Completes 6 nm ASIC Chip Designing for Bitcoin Mining Machines</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEbang International Completes 6 nm ASIC Chip Designing for Bitcoin Mining Machines\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 20:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ebang-international-completes-6-nm-123000448.html><strong>GlobeNewswire</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>HANGZHOU, China, March 17, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Ebang International Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: EBON, the “Company,” “we” or “our”), a blockchain technology company in the global market, today ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ebang-international-completes-6-nm-123000448.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/9ztHg8XHZalDHu1jfRnjmg--~B/aD05Njt3PTQ2MDthcHBpZD15dGFjaHlvbg--/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/qfKGf1u3QU4VYUSXciEi5g--~B/aD05Njt3PTQ2MDthcHBpZD15dGFjaHlvbg--/https://media.zenfs.com/en/globenewswire.com/7c52a659a5e4dcf04f1c87df4a06a50a","relate_stocks":{"EBON":"亿邦国际"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ebang-international-completes-6-nm-123000448.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2120818961","content_text":"HANGZHOU, China, March 17, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Ebang International Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: EBON, the “Company,” “we” or “our”), a blockchain technology company in the global market, today announced that it has completed a 6 nm ASIC chip designed for Bitcoin mining machines, which is expected to have a competitive edge in the market in terms of performance. The Company plans to begin volume production of its 6 nm chip when it determines market conditions become suitable.\nMr. Dong Hu, Chairman and CEO of the Company, commented, “The completion of our 6 nm ASIC chip is a significant milestone of our constant R&D efforts in recent years. We have devoted a lot of resources in building our R&D team and product innovation and iteration. Looking forward, we plan to continue developing ASIC chips designed for more mainstream cryptocurrency machines, which we believe will increase our revenue in the digital currency business and optimize our product offering structure along the blockchain industry value chain.”\nThere is no guarantee that the Company will be able to commercialize its 6 nm ASIC chip design as planned or at all, or that such commercialization will improve the Company’s financial performance or results of operations. Shareholders are cautioned not to place undue reliance on this press release or the forward-looking statements contained herein.\nAbout Ebang International Holdings Inc.\nEbang International Holdings Inc. is a blockchain technology company with strong application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) chip design capability. With years of industry experience and expertise in ASIC chip design, it has become a leading bitcoin mining machine producer in the global market with steady access to wafer foundry capacity. With its licensed or registered entities in various jurisdictions, the Company seeks to launch a professional, convenient and innovative digital asset financial service platform to expand into the upstream and the downstream of blockchain and cryptocurrency industry value chain. For more information, please visit https://ir.ebang.com.cn/.\nSafe Harbor Statement\nThis press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and as defined in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements include, without limitation, the Company’s development plans and business outlook, which can be identified by terminology such as “may,” “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “aims,” “potential,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates,” “continue,” “likely to” and other similar expressions. Such statements are not historical facts, and are based upon the Company’s current beliefs, plans and expectations, and the current market and operating conditions. Forward-looking statements involve inherent known or unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, all of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond the Company’s control, which may cause the Company’s actual results, performance and achievements to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Further information regarding these and other risks, uncertainties or factors is included in the Company's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. 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21:52","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"刘煜辉：脱钩+滞胀的时代，我们该如何投资","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130930476","media":"天风研究","summary":"天风证券首席经济学家刘煜辉于天风总量策略会上的主旨发言。","content":"<p><i>本文为中国社会科学院教授，天风证券首席经济学家刘煜辉于2020年5月23日在天风总量策略会上所作的《留得青山，赢得未来——宏观经济与市场前瞻》主旨发言。</i></p><p>大家好，我就开门见山谈谈观点。</p><p>昨天大家也看到了总理的政府工作报告，跟预期相比，整体感觉是个收敛的基调。</p><p>我们可以大致盘算一下，今年财政扩张的增量实际上明确的也就是2.6万亿，其中1万亿是特别国债，还有1.6万亿是新增的专项债。如果按照2020年财政赤字率目标3.6%算，今年财政赤字的规模大概比去年扩大了1万亿，但是我们也应该看到赤字扩大主要来自于财政收入的减少，财政支出并没有增加多少。在中国流转税制的情况下，这反映的不是经济扩张效应，而是经济收缩的结果，疫情冲击企业停工停产，没有经济收入，没有经济流量，所以它带来税收的显著减少。</p><p>所以财政扩张的真正主体是前面讲的1万亿的特别国债和新增1.6万亿的专项债。我们看到政府工作报告特别强调，这1万亿特别国债与我们原先预期的投入方向有所不同，将以特殊转移支付，全部用于地方，它不是对应项目的扩张，更多的是解决因为疫情的冲击，很多地方政府的财政困境，吃饭都有问题了，所以具有很强的维稳性质。</p><p>真正对经济有财政扩张效应的就是1.6万亿专项债，配套银行的信用带动一些新建的基建项目，这是财政扩张的效果。</p><p>其他对经济的支持措施更多来自于银行的债务系统扩张。我们看到4月社会融资存量增速为12%，较去年底10.7%提升了1.3%，昨天两会的政府工作报告中提到要保持信用、贷款和社会融资增速显著高于去年。大家都知道银行投放是有规律的，主要投放是在一季度，之后逐级递减的，因为早投放早受益，项目的储备实际上都压在年尾，如果项目成熟了，过会了，最好是来年一季度全部打出去。所以我个人认为从目前看，下半年社融存量增速可能维持在12%的水平就不错了。</p><p>因为从信用业务的角度来讲，银行目前面临严重的资产荒，资金成本又降不下去，这是个宏观的问题，现在银行每做一笔业务边际上都是亏的，负债端的边际不能被资产端的收益率覆盖。前期大家也知道，经济脸着地以后，实体经济根本不能产生足额收益的资产，收益率极低。在这个情况下，除非银行受到很强的行政干预才能提升增速，否则的话按照目前的态势来看，接下来保持12%的增速，对银行来讲都需要付出很大的努力。过去三四年财经决策的领导们一直在为中国调结构去杠杆，保持中国的宏观杠杆率，降低中国的宏观风险而努力，从两会的基调和基础的想法来看，如果不出意外的话是不太可能发生强力的政治督导，一定要银行硬着头皮制造烂资产。如果保持12%的社融存量增速，那么今年新增的信用不会超过4万亿。</p><p>按照中国目前的债务驱动型体制，信用的边际产出效率很低，2019年社融新增24万亿，才生产了7万亿的GDP增量，简单讲，24万亿信用砸进去以后，边际产出仅7万亿的GDP增量。所以按照这个信用的产出效益，他们计划提供的这6.6万亿子弹大约也就是填补一季度GDP的亏空，一季度损失的GDP约1.4万亿，砸了一个坑，如果算机会损失的话，正常的GDP名义增速是7%左右，对应的经济损失可能是3万亿。所以决策层领导可能是算过大账的，大概就是填一填坑的感觉。因为在这个基础上再加码，那么会使宏观杠杆率搞得非常丑陋，现在已经很丑陋了。总理报告中有句话「留得青山，赢得未来」。所以今年什么经济指标都不提了。</p><p>心知肚明的事。</p><p><b>脱钩与滞胀</b></p><p>关于当前形势的判断，我个人认为非常的清爽。其实就是两个主题词：一个叫脱钩，一个叫滞胀，宏观的运行状态基本上围绕这两个主题词。</p><p><b>一、脱钩</b></p><p>这次面临的是已经延续了半个世纪的全球化浪潮，在它的最高峰出现了一个断崖式的下坠，这个状态是我们从来没见到过的，我们看它对应的是西方在新冠疫情之后已经形成了某种非常强化的政治正确的方向，这个方向就是反中。尤其是美国特别明显，新冠疫情造成全球金融市场的剧烈动荡以后，美国的反应异常的坚决和高效率。</p><p>我们看到它在理论上准备良久的MMT实践之后非常果决，短短的一个多月，美联储的资产负债表规模从三月初4万亿现在扩张到7万亿，财政赤字翻了近一倍。令我们感到惊讶的是什么呢？</p><p>整个执行的过程竟然没有发生一丝一毫的政治党争，没有发生党派之间的激烈争吵，众议院过了马上参议院就过，而且各个党派的议员只要提出牵涉到我们的议题，参众两院基本上全票非常快的通过，所以我们能够感觉到在西方它的政治生态中间已经形成了一个非常强的政治正确方向。</p><p>这就不难理解为什么美股砸出一个深坑以后，居然能发生如此强势的修复，经济虽然还趴在地板上，但是股市已经发生了V型的修复，这不仅仅是一个印钱的效果，我们知道进入股票市场的钱、风险资产的头寸的上升，它背后的支撑来自于系统风险偏好的上升，并不是中央银行MMT把钱放出去以后，大幅扩张以后就能够自动流到股票市场，流到风险资产头寸的增加，这中间一定要形成风险偏好上升的逻辑。所以我们讲到这个逻辑对应的就是美国这个系统，甚至西方这个系统，通过这次新冠疫情已经形成了某种非常强化的政治正确，客观上显著地降低了西方、美国整个系统的交易成本。映射到投资市场，就是风险偏好的上升。这是我们感到压力的地方。</p><p>大家也知道中国过去40年实现了伟大的经济崛起和巨大的物质繁荣，背后支撑的因素无非来自于两碗「基本面」：改革开放和全球化。我们抓住了历史机遇，也就是国运，获得了全球化浪潮最丰厚的红利，今天我们看到的就是延续半个世纪的全球化浪潮在高峰发生了断崖式下跌。</p><p>今天中国工厂的地位不是浪得虚名，我们已经通过20年不懈努力融入了全球化浪潮，建立了以中国为枢纽的全球产业链、供应链甚至价值链。然而现在西方政治正确的方向就是全方位向这个链条发起清算，虽然疫情还没有结束，但从民间到庙堂之高的决策，都可以感觉到这种情绪愈发浓烈。所以不能再沉浸在所谓中国「枢纽」的宏大叙事中了，对于跨国资本来讲，它的决策逻辑因为模型中相应的变量都会发生巨大的改变。在巨大的历史变迁和宏大叙事转换的潮头，不仅会算经济商业账，同时更要考虑政治和安全成本。一旦西方形成了某种政治方向，那么资本在进行全球布局时，一定会把政治不正确成本和风险计入到模型，这就是今天我们的压力。</p><p>所以面对严峻的外部条件，我想是决策层应该经过深思熟虑做出的决定。往前追溯的话，4月8号的中共中央政治局会其实可能就已经下了这个决心，「做好较长时间应对外部环境变化的思想准备和工作准备」，这是那次会议的总基调，我个人理解就是个防御的基调，备战备荒，深挖洞、广积粮，就是为应对未来巨大的不确定性，至少是过去五十年未有之变局，是历史潮流的翻转，做长期的思想准备和工作准备。具体到这次的两会政府工作报告，实际上是这样一个精神的延续和落实，或者是具像化。因此昨天我看到政府工作报告没有特别大的惊愕和反差，跟我过去的感觉比较一致。</p><p>之前很多人也问过我两会快开了，会怎么样？我的感觉是个「三没有」的状态。</p><p>第一是没有什么大的刺激。目前看来，中国计划拿出来的子弹就这么多，是一个比较收敛的基调。</p><p>第二，之前一些经济学家比如小年教授和我很早就提过救民企、救民生的想法，积极地推动资源要素配置方向的转移。我甚至提出来直升机撒钱，直接把钱撒向经济破损的部门比如困难的民企和家庭，大规模发消费券等等。但是从报告中没有提到这个意思，因为说实在话这些方向从政治学角度讲都属于短期效应，属于纯消耗性的财政活动，现在要保的是财政，保的是钱粮，保的是核心价值。「广积粮、深挖洞、多攒钱、多攒力气、少花钱」。</p><p>第三是在外部环境非常恶劣和极不友好的条件下，无论是从政治学还是历史学的角度去认知的话，内部改革的压力和困难巨大。我们常常看到市场中产生一些人讲所谓形势比人强，压力倒逼改革这样一些说法，这更多是体现在股票市场的阶段性预期方面。回到现实中间来讲，真正政治行为的决策还是由国家的历史和政治的属性来决定的。系统的目标函数指向是「执政安全」。不展开。</p><p>这是我讲的第一个主题词「脱钩」，演绎出来我们政策的选择，对于我们来讲就是防御，备战备荒，广积粮、深挖洞，外面形成了某种政治正确，清算我们体制的力量，对于我们而言肯定是防御，我们选择这个「三没有」也是非常理性的，两个大个子现在要对决，对手比我们更强大，我们相对弱小，力量还不足，从正常的生活常识来讲，作为弱的一方肯定是蹲下、蹲下，甚至蜷缩，尽量减少自家的身体暴露，保护好自己的头部和关键部位，减少身体的能量消耗&nbsp;，节约财政资源，节约子弹。这是在与一个与强者打架过程中非常理性的选择。</p><p>如果你还昂首挺胸，门户大开，加杠杆大干快上，暴露风险，这不是送给对方揍吗？这是生活常识。</p><p><b>二、滞胀</b></p><p>自然的推演到第二个主题词，滞胀的状态。这里牵扯到我们的经济「体质」，即便在没有什么刺激的情况下，也无法克服当前经济下落过程中所产生的通货膨胀。其实滞胀不是一个时点的问题，而是「体质」，这个「体质」已经延续很多年时间了。最近几年非常明显，这次疫情是给中国经济「体质」做了一次最好的实证研究，过去几年经济学家之间经常发生的那种形势判断的争吵都可以休了。因为这一次非常明显，一季度经济增速-6.8%，砸出个大坑，但中国经济没有发生一丝一毫的通货紧缩，经济停摆一个多月时间，居然没有发生一丝一毫的价格下降？</p><p>从黑色金属到房地产，再到背后的土地财政，中国经济的主线异常得坚韧和顽强。从中国自己决定的工业周期品到民生消费品再到社会服务都未出现降价。物价那么高，有的是老百姓对钞票发毛的预期非常浓烈，所以深圳楼市的异常的火爆，各地地王频现。</p><p>当下失业和通货膨胀别扭的共生状态，说明这根本不是熟悉的「凯恩斯经济世界」。这是经济下行周期的通胀：菲利普斯曲线（凯恩斯的经济世界）失灵，所以问题在于供给侧，供给侧受到某种力量的不断打击而下坠（长期增长动能受损），而需求被顽强的既得利益所顶住，从而向下撕裂出越来越大的缺口，形成难以遏制的顽固的通胀预期。各种争论源自逻辑源头的分歧在于中国经济的潜在增长还稳态吗？我的结论是：中国的潜在增长目前甚至更早已经进入非稳态的状态，因为我们观察得到一些要素供给和要素质量其实早带着加速度在变化中。</p><p>在疫情冲击下，我们肉眼能够看到的是总需求（三驾马车）「脸着地」，但我们肉眼看不到的，潜在增长是不是也有可能进入「脸着地」的状态。完全可能，那么一个至关重要的问题无法回避，政策的重心会摆在哪一头：需求侧还是供给侧。</p><p>决定中国经济潜在增长的就是我前面讲的两碗基本面，改革开放和全球化，今天这两碗基本面已经找不回妈妈以前的那个味道了。这个故事的剧本就是要突破内在的心魔，现在它不是靠红头文件做几个PPT就能够解决问题的，唯有靠改革。但是今天这个时点，改革不再是做PPT，画个圈圈绘蓝图那么简单了。</p><p>所谓改革就是做减法，就是利益的革命。它要改变今天利益、机会、资源配置的方向。改变这个分配的结构，这个就是减法的问题。减法能突破吗？</p><p>总书记昨天强调了要让市场在资源配置中发挥决定性作用，不能再回到计划经济模式，很受鼓舞。</p><p>我们讲改革为什么难？因为是个动奶酪的问题。但今天又只能通过这种做减法的改革才有可能提振潜在增长，才有可能把中国带出目前这样一个滞胀的状态。</p><p>所以我讲今天判断中国的形势很简单，就是两个主题词，一个是脱钩，第二个是滞胀。</p><p><b>股票和债券</b></p><p>近几个月股票市场反映的就是一个滞胀的时钟，在今年这么一个「活久见」的大环境中间，股票市场最近的结构和交易在所有大类资产中算表现好的。如果你选对了结构，今年损失不大，甚至小有斩获。</p><p>表现最好的那几个指数反映的就是滞胀的时钟。如食品饮料、柴米油盐等生活必选消费；如医药；如代表国家政治意志的关键科技攻关的新型举国体制的方向，军工、自主科创等短板产业。我们不去管它未来的成效，但是你可以看到明显的举国体制所对应的方向，国家基金不断往这几个方向注资，所以那些股票对应的实际上是意志的资本化，和现实的财务已经没有多大的关系。</p><p>如果配到这些方向，今年不但回避了后面下跌的损失，甚至还有比较明显的一个收益。<b>我觉得后面基本上还是围绕着消费（偏重于在柴米油盐等必选消费）、医药、农业、泛军工（包括硬核科技、关键科技攻关的新型举国体制）这几个方向，可能发生阶段性调整，但在滞胀背景下，资金不太可能系统性地转移到其他方向。</b></p><p>结构之外的其他方向就乏善可陈了，我的感觉是压力很大的。下半年脱钩之后，如果G2从对抗走向决裂的过程不断地升级的话，我对资本市场的整体情绪，股票估值的分母存在一丝隐忧，相对比较谨慎的。</p><p>首先在目前这种三没有的防御备战备荒的气场中，激励股票分母也就是风险偏好昂扬向上的逻辑形成是有难度的。股票市场从来就不缺钱，它真正要的是风险偏好。</p><p>在这样一个严峻的外部条件冲击下，是不是会重现类似2018年比较消极的分母状态，市场逐渐累积和增加负向的情绪，到某个时点突然出现急速下坠，我觉得大家还是要担心这样一个风险。老鼠打洞，这是我个人的一点隐忧。</p><p>当然从目前的状态来看，结构上我觉得是没有问题的。只是倾巢之下安有完卵？股票市场交易者还是要担心分母可能出现的阶段性整体的塌陷所造成的风险。</p><p>债券方面，我个人观察十年期国债利率还是在2.5%形成了平衡。如果中国房地产和土地财政这个链条的韧性不发生实质性变软，我个人认为短期内可能很难看到形成一个不断下行的利率通道，基本上是围绕2.5%这个平衡的位置。因为疫情冲击以后大水漫灌，把垃圾债的风险溢价冲得极低，某种程度就是用流动性溢价替代信用溢价的过程，大家赚这个交易的钱，这个过程时间也不长，先人一步的同志就把钱赚到口袋了，后面进去的同志运气好的话喝口汤，运气不好的话汤都喝不着，大概是这么一个情况。</p><p>我简单先讲到这里，谢谢大家。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n刘煜辉：脱钩+滞胀的时代，我们该如何投资\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1076160342\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/456c40c524344b48b29fd979bf624d0a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">天风研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-05-25 21:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>本文为中国社会科学院教授，天风证券首席经济学家刘煜辉于2020年5月23日在天风总量策略会上所作的《留得青山，赢得未来——宏观经济与市场前瞻》主旨发言。</i></p><p>大家好，我就开门见山谈谈观点。</p><p>昨天大家也看到了总理的政府工作报告，跟预期相比，整体感觉是个收敛的基调。</p><p>我们可以大致盘算一下，今年财政扩张的增量实际上明确的也就是2.6万亿，其中1万亿是特别国债，还有1.6万亿是新增的专项债。如果按照2020年财政赤字率目标3.6%算，今年财政赤字的规模大概比去年扩大了1万亿，但是我们也应该看到赤字扩大主要来自于财政收入的减少，财政支出并没有增加多少。在中国流转税制的情况下，这反映的不是经济扩张效应，而是经济收缩的结果，疫情冲击企业停工停产，没有经济收入，没有经济流量，所以它带来税收的显著减少。</p><p>所以财政扩张的真正主体是前面讲的1万亿的特别国债和新增1.6万亿的专项债。我们看到政府工作报告特别强调，这1万亿特别国债与我们原先预期的投入方向有所不同，将以特殊转移支付，全部用于地方，它不是对应项目的扩张，更多的是解决因为疫情的冲击，很多地方政府的财政困境，吃饭都有问题了，所以具有很强的维稳性质。</p><p>真正对经济有财政扩张效应的就是1.6万亿专项债，配套银行的信用带动一些新建的基建项目，这是财政扩张的效果。</p><p>其他对经济的支持措施更多来自于银行的债务系统扩张。我们看到4月社会融资存量增速为12%，较去年底10.7%提升了1.3%，昨天两会的政府工作报告中提到要保持信用、贷款和社会融资增速显著高于去年。大家都知道银行投放是有规律的，主要投放是在一季度，之后逐级递减的，因为早投放早受益，项目的储备实际上都压在年尾，如果项目成熟了，过会了，最好是来年一季度全部打出去。所以我个人认为从目前看，下半年社融存量增速可能维持在12%的水平就不错了。</p><p>因为从信用业务的角度来讲，银行目前面临严重的资产荒，资金成本又降不下去，这是个宏观的问题，现在银行每做一笔业务边际上都是亏的，负债端的边际不能被资产端的收益率覆盖。前期大家也知道，经济脸着地以后，实体经济根本不能产生足额收益的资产，收益率极低。在这个情况下，除非银行受到很强的行政干预才能提升增速，否则的话按照目前的态势来看，接下来保持12%的增速，对银行来讲都需要付出很大的努力。过去三四年财经决策的领导们一直在为中国调结构去杠杆，保持中国的宏观杠杆率，降低中国的宏观风险而努力，从两会的基调和基础的想法来看，如果不出意外的话是不太可能发生强力的政治督导，一定要银行硬着头皮制造烂资产。如果保持12%的社融存量增速，那么今年新增的信用不会超过4万亿。</p><p>按照中国目前的债务驱动型体制，信用的边际产出效率很低，2019年社融新增24万亿，才生产了7万亿的GDP增量，简单讲，24万亿信用砸进去以后，边际产出仅7万亿的GDP增量。所以按照这个信用的产出效益，他们计划提供的这6.6万亿子弹大约也就是填补一季度GDP的亏空，一季度损失的GDP约1.4万亿，砸了一个坑，如果算机会损失的话，正常的GDP名义增速是7%左右，对应的经济损失可能是3万亿。所以决策层领导可能是算过大账的，大概就是填一填坑的感觉。因为在这个基础上再加码，那么会使宏观杠杆率搞得非常丑陋，现在已经很丑陋了。总理报告中有句话「留得青山，赢得未来」。所以今年什么经济指标都不提了。</p><p>心知肚明的事。</p><p><b>脱钩与滞胀</b></p><p>关于当前形势的判断，我个人认为非常的清爽。其实就是两个主题词：一个叫脱钩，一个叫滞胀，宏观的运行状态基本上围绕这两个主题词。</p><p><b>一、脱钩</b></p><p>这次面临的是已经延续了半个世纪的全球化浪潮，在它的最高峰出现了一个断崖式的下坠，这个状态是我们从来没见到过的，我们看它对应的是西方在新冠疫情之后已经形成了某种非常强化的政治正确的方向，这个方向就是反中。尤其是美国特别明显，新冠疫情造成全球金融市场的剧烈动荡以后，美国的反应异常的坚决和高效率。</p><p>我们看到它在理论上准备良久的MMT实践之后非常果决，短短的一个多月，美联储的资产负债表规模从三月初4万亿现在扩张到7万亿，财政赤字翻了近一倍。令我们感到惊讶的是什么呢？</p><p>整个执行的过程竟然没有发生一丝一毫的政治党争，没有发生党派之间的激烈争吵，众议院过了马上参议院就过，而且各个党派的议员只要提出牵涉到我们的议题，参众两院基本上全票非常快的通过，所以我们能够感觉到在西方它的政治生态中间已经形成了一个非常强的政治正确方向。</p><p>这就不难理解为什么美股砸出一个深坑以后，居然能发生如此强势的修复，经济虽然还趴在地板上，但是股市已经发生了V型的修复，这不仅仅是一个印钱的效果，我们知道进入股票市场的钱、风险资产的头寸的上升，它背后的支撑来自于系统风险偏好的上升，并不是中央银行MMT把钱放出去以后，大幅扩张以后就能够自动流到股票市场，流到风险资产头寸的增加，这中间一定要形成风险偏好上升的逻辑。所以我们讲到这个逻辑对应的就是美国这个系统，甚至西方这个系统，通过这次新冠疫情已经形成了某种非常强化的政治正确，客观上显著地降低了西方、美国整个系统的交易成本。映射到投资市场，就是风险偏好的上升。这是我们感到压力的地方。</p><p>大家也知道中国过去40年实现了伟大的经济崛起和巨大的物质繁荣，背后支撑的因素无非来自于两碗「基本面」：改革开放和全球化。我们抓住了历史机遇，也就是国运，获得了全球化浪潮最丰厚的红利，今天我们看到的就是延续半个世纪的全球化浪潮在高峰发生了断崖式下跌。</p><p>今天中国工厂的地位不是浪得虚名，我们已经通过20年不懈努力融入了全球化浪潮，建立了以中国为枢纽的全球产业链、供应链甚至价值链。然而现在西方政治正确的方向就是全方位向这个链条发起清算，虽然疫情还没有结束，但从民间到庙堂之高的决策，都可以感觉到这种情绪愈发浓烈。所以不能再沉浸在所谓中国「枢纽」的宏大叙事中了，对于跨国资本来讲，它的决策逻辑因为模型中相应的变量都会发生巨大的改变。在巨大的历史变迁和宏大叙事转换的潮头，不仅会算经济商业账，同时更要考虑政治和安全成本。一旦西方形成了某种政治方向，那么资本在进行全球布局时，一定会把政治不正确成本和风险计入到模型，这就是今天我们的压力。</p><p>所以面对严峻的外部条件，我想是决策层应该经过深思熟虑做出的决定。往前追溯的话，4月8号的中共中央政治局会其实可能就已经下了这个决心，「做好较长时间应对外部环境变化的思想准备和工作准备」，这是那次会议的总基调，我个人理解就是个防御的基调，备战备荒，深挖洞、广积粮，就是为应对未来巨大的不确定性，至少是过去五十年未有之变局，是历史潮流的翻转，做长期的思想准备和工作准备。具体到这次的两会政府工作报告，实际上是这样一个精神的延续和落实，或者是具像化。因此昨天我看到政府工作报告没有特别大的惊愕和反差，跟我过去的感觉比较一致。</p><p>之前很多人也问过我两会快开了，会怎么样？我的感觉是个「三没有」的状态。</p><p>第一是没有什么大的刺激。目前看来，中国计划拿出来的子弹就这么多，是一个比较收敛的基调。</p><p>第二，之前一些经济学家比如小年教授和我很早就提过救民企、救民生的想法，积极地推动资源要素配置方向的转移。我甚至提出来直升机撒钱，直接把钱撒向经济破损的部门比如困难的民企和家庭，大规模发消费券等等。但是从报告中没有提到这个意思，因为说实在话这些方向从政治学角度讲都属于短期效应，属于纯消耗性的财政活动，现在要保的是财政，保的是钱粮，保的是核心价值。「广积粮、深挖洞、多攒钱、多攒力气、少花钱」。</p><p>第三是在外部环境非常恶劣和极不友好的条件下，无论是从政治学还是历史学的角度去认知的话，内部改革的压力和困难巨大。我们常常看到市场中产生一些人讲所谓形势比人强，压力倒逼改革这样一些说法，这更多是体现在股票市场的阶段性预期方面。回到现实中间来讲，真正政治行为的决策还是由国家的历史和政治的属性来决定的。系统的目标函数指向是「执政安全」。不展开。</p><p>这是我讲的第一个主题词「脱钩」，演绎出来我们政策的选择，对于我们来讲就是防御，备战备荒，广积粮、深挖洞，外面形成了某种政治正确，清算我们体制的力量，对于我们而言肯定是防御，我们选择这个「三没有」也是非常理性的，两个大个子现在要对决，对手比我们更强大，我们相对弱小，力量还不足，从正常的生活常识来讲，作为弱的一方肯定是蹲下、蹲下，甚至蜷缩，尽量减少自家的身体暴露，保护好自己的头部和关键部位，减少身体的能量消耗&nbsp;，节约财政资源，节约子弹。这是在与一个与强者打架过程中非常理性的选择。</p><p>如果你还昂首挺胸，门户大开，加杠杆大干快上，暴露风险，这不是送给对方揍吗？这是生活常识。</p><p><b>二、滞胀</b></p><p>自然的推演到第二个主题词，滞胀的状态。这里牵扯到我们的经济「体质」，即便在没有什么刺激的情况下，也无法克服当前经济下落过程中所产生的通货膨胀。其实滞胀不是一个时点的问题，而是「体质」，这个「体质」已经延续很多年时间了。最近几年非常明显，这次疫情是给中国经济「体质」做了一次最好的实证研究，过去几年经济学家之间经常发生的那种形势判断的争吵都可以休了。因为这一次非常明显，一季度经济增速-6.8%，砸出个大坑，但中国经济没有发生一丝一毫的通货紧缩，经济停摆一个多月时间，居然没有发生一丝一毫的价格下降？</p><p>从黑色金属到房地产，再到背后的土地财政，中国经济的主线异常得坚韧和顽强。从中国自己决定的工业周期品到民生消费品再到社会服务都未出现降价。物价那么高，有的是老百姓对钞票发毛的预期非常浓烈，所以深圳楼市的异常的火爆，各地地王频现。</p><p>当下失业和通货膨胀别扭的共生状态，说明这根本不是熟悉的「凯恩斯经济世界」。这是经济下行周期的通胀：菲利普斯曲线（凯恩斯的经济世界）失灵，所以问题在于供给侧，供给侧受到某种力量的不断打击而下坠（长期增长动能受损），而需求被顽强的既得利益所顶住，从而向下撕裂出越来越大的缺口，形成难以遏制的顽固的通胀预期。各种争论源自逻辑源头的分歧在于中国经济的潜在增长还稳态吗？我的结论是：中国的潜在增长目前甚至更早已经进入非稳态的状态，因为我们观察得到一些要素供给和要素质量其实早带着加速度在变化中。</p><p>在疫情冲击下，我们肉眼能够看到的是总需求（三驾马车）「脸着地」，但我们肉眼看不到的，潜在增长是不是也有可能进入「脸着地」的状态。完全可能，那么一个至关重要的问题无法回避，政策的重心会摆在哪一头：需求侧还是供给侧。</p><p>决定中国经济潜在增长的就是我前面讲的两碗基本面，改革开放和全球化，今天这两碗基本面已经找不回妈妈以前的那个味道了。这个故事的剧本就是要突破内在的心魔，现在它不是靠红头文件做几个PPT就能够解决问题的，唯有靠改革。但是今天这个时点，改革不再是做PPT，画个圈圈绘蓝图那么简单了。</p><p>所谓改革就是做减法，就是利益的革命。它要改变今天利益、机会、资源配置的方向。改变这个分配的结构，这个就是减法的问题。减法能突破吗？</p><p>总书记昨天强调了要让市场在资源配置中发挥决定性作用，不能再回到计划经济模式，很受鼓舞。</p><p>我们讲改革为什么难？因为是个动奶酪的问题。但今天又只能通过这种做减法的改革才有可能提振潜在增长，才有可能把中国带出目前这样一个滞胀的状态。</p><p>所以我讲今天判断中国的形势很简单，就是两个主题词，一个是脱钩，第二个是滞胀。</p><p><b>股票和债券</b></p><p>近几个月股票市场反映的就是一个滞胀的时钟，在今年这么一个「活久见」的大环境中间，股票市场最近的结构和交易在所有大类资产中算表现好的。如果你选对了结构，今年损失不大，甚至小有斩获。</p><p>表现最好的那几个指数反映的就是滞胀的时钟。如食品饮料、柴米油盐等生活必选消费；如医药；如代表国家政治意志的关键科技攻关的新型举国体制的方向，军工、自主科创等短板产业。我们不去管它未来的成效，但是你可以看到明显的举国体制所对应的方向，国家基金不断往这几个方向注资，所以那些股票对应的实际上是意志的资本化，和现实的财务已经没有多大的关系。</p><p>如果配到这些方向，今年不但回避了后面下跌的损失，甚至还有比较明显的一个收益。<b>我觉得后面基本上还是围绕着消费（偏重于在柴米油盐等必选消费）、医药、农业、泛军工（包括硬核科技、关键科技攻关的新型举国体制）这几个方向，可能发生阶段性调整，但在滞胀背景下，资金不太可能系统性地转移到其他方向。</b></p><p>结构之外的其他方向就乏善可陈了，我的感觉是压力很大的。下半年脱钩之后，如果G2从对抗走向决裂的过程不断地升级的话，我对资本市场的整体情绪，股票估值的分母存在一丝隐忧，相对比较谨慎的。</p><p>首先在目前这种三没有的防御备战备荒的气场中，激励股票分母也就是风险偏好昂扬向上的逻辑形成是有难度的。股票市场从来就不缺钱，它真正要的是风险偏好。</p><p>在这样一个严峻的外部条件冲击下，是不是会重现类似2018年比较消极的分母状态，市场逐渐累积和增加负向的情绪，到某个时点突然出现急速下坠，我觉得大家还是要担心这样一个风险。老鼠打洞，这是我个人的一点隐忧。</p><p>当然从目前的状态来看，结构上我觉得是没有问题的。只是倾巢之下安有完卵？股票市场交易者还是要担心分母可能出现的阶段性整体的塌陷所造成的风险。</p><p>债券方面，我个人观察十年期国债利率还是在2.5%形成了平衡。如果中国房地产和土地财政这个链条的韧性不发生实质性变软，我个人认为短期内可能很难看到形成一个不断下行的利率通道，基本上是围绕2.5%这个平衡的位置。因为疫情冲击以后大水漫灌，把垃圾债的风险溢价冲得极低，某种程度就是用流动性溢价替代信用溢价的过程，大家赚这个交易的钱，这个过程时间也不长，先人一步的同志就把钱赚到口袋了，后面进去的同志运气好的话喝口汤，运气不好的话汤都喝不着，大概是这么一个情况。</p><p>我简单先讲到这里，谢谢大家。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7636297d7cead6d8f27354ab46d8637e","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130930476","content_text":"本文为中国社会科学院教授，天风证券首席经济学家刘煜辉于2020年5月23日在天风总量策略会上所作的《留得青山，赢得未来——宏观经济与市场前瞻》主旨发言。大家好，我就开门见山谈谈观点。昨天大家也看到了总理的政府工作报告，跟预期相比，整体感觉是个收敛的基调。我们可以大致盘算一下，今年财政扩张的增量实际上明确的也就是2.6万亿，其中1万亿是特别国债，还有1.6万亿是新增的专项债。如果按照2020年财政赤字率目标3.6%算，今年财政赤字的规模大概比去年扩大了1万亿，但是我们也应该看到赤字扩大主要来自于财政收入的减少，财政支出并没有增加多少。在中国流转税制的情况下，这反映的不是经济扩张效应，而是经济收缩的结果，疫情冲击企业停工停产，没有经济收入，没有经济流量，所以它带来税收的显著减少。所以财政扩张的真正主体是前面讲的1万亿的特别国债和新增1.6万亿的专项债。我们看到政府工作报告特别强调，这1万亿特别国债与我们原先预期的投入方向有所不同，将以特殊转移支付，全部用于地方，它不是对应项目的扩张，更多的是解决因为疫情的冲击，很多地方政府的财政困境，吃饭都有问题了，所以具有很强的维稳性质。真正对经济有财政扩张效应的就是1.6万亿专项债，配套银行的信用带动一些新建的基建项目，这是财政扩张的效果。其他对经济的支持措施更多来自于银行的债务系统扩张。我们看到4月社会融资存量增速为12%，较去年底10.7%提升了1.3%，昨天两会的政府工作报告中提到要保持信用、贷款和社会融资增速显著高于去年。大家都知道银行投放是有规律的，主要投放是在一季度，之后逐级递减的，因为早投放早受益，项目的储备实际上都压在年尾，如果项目成熟了，过会了，最好是来年一季度全部打出去。所以我个人认为从目前看，下半年社融存量增速可能维持在12%的水平就不错了。因为从信用业务的角度来讲，银行目前面临严重的资产荒，资金成本又降不下去，这是个宏观的问题，现在银行每做一笔业务边际上都是亏的，负债端的边际不能被资产端的收益率覆盖。前期大家也知道，经济脸着地以后，实体经济根本不能产生足额收益的资产，收益率极低。在这个情况下，除非银行受到很强的行政干预才能提升增速，否则的话按照目前的态势来看，接下来保持12%的增速，对银行来讲都需要付出很大的努力。过去三四年财经决策的领导们一直在为中国调结构去杠杆，保持中国的宏观杠杆率，降低中国的宏观风险而努力，从两会的基调和基础的想法来看，如果不出意外的话是不太可能发生强力的政治督导，一定要银行硬着头皮制造烂资产。如果保持12%的社融存量增速，那么今年新增的信用不会超过4万亿。按照中国目前的债务驱动型体制，信用的边际产出效率很低，2019年社融新增24万亿，才生产了7万亿的GDP增量，简单讲，24万亿信用砸进去以后，边际产出仅7万亿的GDP增量。所以按照这个信用的产出效益，他们计划提供的这6.6万亿子弹大约也就是填补一季度GDP的亏空，一季度损失的GDP约1.4万亿，砸了一个坑，如果算机会损失的话，正常的GDP名义增速是7%左右，对应的经济损失可能是3万亿。所以决策层领导可能是算过大账的，大概就是填一填坑的感觉。因为在这个基础上再加码，那么会使宏观杠杆率搞得非常丑陋，现在已经很丑陋了。总理报告中有句话「留得青山，赢得未来」。所以今年什么经济指标都不提了。心知肚明的事。脱钩与滞胀关于当前形势的判断，我个人认为非常的清爽。其实就是两个主题词：一个叫脱钩，一个叫滞胀，宏观的运行状态基本上围绕这两个主题词。一、脱钩这次面临的是已经延续了半个世纪的全球化浪潮，在它的最高峰出现了一个断崖式的下坠，这个状态是我们从来没见到过的，我们看它对应的是西方在新冠疫情之后已经形成了某种非常强化的政治正确的方向，这个方向就是反中。尤其是美国特别明显，新冠疫情造成全球金融市场的剧烈动荡以后，美国的反应异常的坚决和高效率。我们看到它在理论上准备良久的MMT实践之后非常果决，短短的一个多月，美联储的资产负债表规模从三月初4万亿现在扩张到7万亿，财政赤字翻了近一倍。令我们感到惊讶的是什么呢？整个执行的过程竟然没有发生一丝一毫的政治党争，没有发生党派之间的激烈争吵，众议院过了马上参议院就过，而且各个党派的议员只要提出牵涉到我们的议题，参众两院基本上全票非常快的通过，所以我们能够感觉到在西方它的政治生态中间已经形成了一个非常强的政治正确方向。这就不难理解为什么美股砸出一个深坑以后，居然能发生如此强势的修复，经济虽然还趴在地板上，但是股市已经发生了V型的修复，这不仅仅是一个印钱的效果，我们知道进入股票市场的钱、风险资产的头寸的上升，它背后的支撑来自于系统风险偏好的上升，并不是中央银行MMT把钱放出去以后，大幅扩张以后就能够自动流到股票市场，流到风险资产头寸的增加，这中间一定要形成风险偏好上升的逻辑。所以我们讲到这个逻辑对应的就是美国这个系统，甚至西方这个系统，通过这次新冠疫情已经形成了某种非常强化的政治正确，客观上显著地降低了西方、美国整个系统的交易成本。映射到投资市场，就是风险偏好的上升。这是我们感到压力的地方。大家也知道中国过去40年实现了伟大的经济崛起和巨大的物质繁荣，背后支撑的因素无非来自于两碗「基本面」：改革开放和全球化。我们抓住了历史机遇，也就是国运，获得了全球化浪潮最丰厚的红利，今天我们看到的就是延续半个世纪的全球化浪潮在高峰发生了断崖式下跌。今天中国工厂的地位不是浪得虚名，我们已经通过20年不懈努力融入了全球化浪潮，建立了以中国为枢纽的全球产业链、供应链甚至价值链。然而现在西方政治正确的方向就是全方位向这个链条发起清算，虽然疫情还没有结束，但从民间到庙堂之高的决策，都可以感觉到这种情绪愈发浓烈。所以不能再沉浸在所谓中国「枢纽」的宏大叙事中了，对于跨国资本来讲，它的决策逻辑因为模型中相应的变量都会发生巨大的改变。在巨大的历史变迁和宏大叙事转换的潮头，不仅会算经济商业账，同时更要考虑政治和安全成本。一旦西方形成了某种政治方向，那么资本在进行全球布局时，一定会把政治不正确成本和风险计入到模型，这就是今天我们的压力。所以面对严峻的外部条件，我想是决策层应该经过深思熟虑做出的决定。往前追溯的话，4月8号的中共中央政治局会其实可能就已经下了这个决心，「做好较长时间应对外部环境变化的思想准备和工作准备」，这是那次会议的总基调，我个人理解就是个防御的基调，备战备荒，深挖洞、广积粮，就是为应对未来巨大的不确定性，至少是过去五十年未有之变局，是历史潮流的翻转，做长期的思想准备和工作准备。具体到这次的两会政府工作报告，实际上是这样一个精神的延续和落实，或者是具像化。因此昨天我看到政府工作报告没有特别大的惊愕和反差，跟我过去的感觉比较一致。之前很多人也问过我两会快开了，会怎么样？我的感觉是个「三没有」的状态。第一是没有什么大的刺激。目前看来，中国计划拿出来的子弹就这么多，是一个比较收敛的基调。第二，之前一些经济学家比如小年教授和我很早就提过救民企、救民生的想法，积极地推动资源要素配置方向的转移。我甚至提出来直升机撒钱，直接把钱撒向经济破损的部门比如困难的民企和家庭，大规模发消费券等等。但是从报告中没有提到这个意思，因为说实在话这些方向从政治学角度讲都属于短期效应，属于纯消耗性的财政活动，现在要保的是财政，保的是钱粮，保的是核心价值。「广积粮、深挖洞、多攒钱、多攒力气、少花钱」。第三是在外部环境非常恶劣和极不友好的条件下，无论是从政治学还是历史学的角度去认知的话，内部改革的压力和困难巨大。我们常常看到市场中产生一些人讲所谓形势比人强，压力倒逼改革这样一些说法，这更多是体现在股票市场的阶段性预期方面。回到现实中间来讲，真正政治行为的决策还是由国家的历史和政治的属性来决定的。系统的目标函数指向是「执政安全」。不展开。这是我讲的第一个主题词「脱钩」，演绎出来我们政策的选择，对于我们来讲就是防御，备战备荒，广积粮、深挖洞，外面形成了某种政治正确，清算我们体制的力量，对于我们而言肯定是防御，我们选择这个「三没有」也是非常理性的，两个大个子现在要对决，对手比我们更强大，我们相对弱小，力量还不足，从正常的生活常识来讲，作为弱的一方肯定是蹲下、蹲下，甚至蜷缩，尽量减少自家的身体暴露，保护好自己的头部和关键部位，减少身体的能量消耗 ，节约财政资源，节约子弹。这是在与一个与强者打架过程中非常理性的选择。如果你还昂首挺胸，门户大开，加杠杆大干快上，暴露风险，这不是送给对方揍吗？这是生活常识。二、滞胀自然的推演到第二个主题词，滞胀的状态。这里牵扯到我们的经济「体质」，即便在没有什么刺激的情况下，也无法克服当前经济下落过程中所产生的通货膨胀。其实滞胀不是一个时点的问题，而是「体质」，这个「体质」已经延续很多年时间了。最近几年非常明显，这次疫情是给中国经济「体质」做了一次最好的实证研究，过去几年经济学家之间经常发生的那种形势判断的争吵都可以休了。因为这一次非常明显，一季度经济增速-6.8%，砸出个大坑，但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