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资以待乏
2022-02-16
那台积电呢,怎么说呢?
观点 | 谁要害宁王?
资以待乏
2021-08-02
$理想汽车(LI)$
$蔚来(NIO)$
首次反超
资以待乏
2021-06-18
修先生,晕
抱歉,原内容已删除
资以待乏
2021-03-23
$理想汽车(LI)$
呵呵
资以待乏
2021-03-23
$理想汽车(LI)$
呵呵
资以待乏
2021-03-13
$汽车之家(ATHM)$
回港股上市,对美股有什么影响吗?
资以待乏
2021-02-10
$理想汽车(LI)$
为啥反而涨了呢?
资以待乏
2021-02-10
$理想汽车(LI)$
$蔚来(NIO)$
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
资以待乏
2021-01-11
$理想汽车(LI)$
比亚迪发布DMI 利好 理想 就这么简单的逻辑
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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元也已跌去近三成。</p><p>即使宁德辟谣属实,宁德时代股价崩盘,背后真正的隐患依然在扩大化——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>汽车厂商多供应商策略、甚至去供应商化已是大趋势。</p><p>汽车产业,以及身处其中的所有巨头,正面临百年未遇之巨变。</p><p>世纪大战硝烟正浓,鹿死谁手未可知。</p><h2>一、整车厂商要将成本中心,变为利润中心</h2><p>智能汽车与传统汽车,有着完全不同的逻辑结构、成本结构,因而对传统汽车产业的打击,是全面摧毁式的。</p><p>今天,汽车的动力、安全、底盘、车身等控制系统以及运行系统,都将进行全盘电动化、智能化,新的计算架构,将会重塑我们对汽车的认知,并且重塑汽车的价值链,对传统汽车的产业链价值是一次深远、全面性的行业性颠覆。</p><p>以前汽车是一个需要不断打磨技术、积累经验的机械系统,是一个封闭的系统,关键技术以及经验,最重要的是利润,都掌握在各家汽车制造商手中。</p><p>到今天,电动车、以及智能汽车的核心部件都已经模块化,从动力电池系统到芯片、智能软件系统,都是核心的成本以及利润中心,如果都掌握在外部供应商手中,整车厂商如果只是将这些拼到一起,就会彻底沦为代工厂,只能赚取非常微薄的代工利润。</p><p>电动汽车最大的成本来自于电池、电机、电控“三电”系统,在电动汽车整体成本中占据了近70%的成本,其中动力电池占到40%,可以说是所有厂商最重的成本,也是要解决的头号成本问题。</p><p>水哥以为,电气化只是未来汽车的第一形态,正在推进的智能化是未来汽车的第二形态,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>、全自动化,将会是未来汽车的主流形态,当然个人交通像飞行器发展才是我们未来个人交通的终极形态。</p><p>电动车还在进一步向智能汽车、自动驾驶进化,未来芯片、智能传感器、算法系统将会是智能汽车赛道新的成本中心以及利润中心。</p><p>未来的汽车就是架在轮子上的计算机。芯片、软件、电池动力系统成为汽车最大的三大利润中心,这三大件都是厂商不可能白白放过的,除非以后真的出现具有关键技术专利壁垒的垄断性供应商,否则,都会下场亲自干。</p><p>同时,这种巨大的变迁决定了智能汽车整车厂商与供应商关系的相互依存与剑拔弩张。</p><p>未来定价权、规则定制权的斗争才刚刚开始。</p><p>因此所有厂商都不会把这种战略要地,放在外部,每个厂商都在深入介入动力电池领域的研发生产以及投资,长期而言一定在分薄宁德电池的份额。同时还有一大堆实力雄厚的电池供应商虎视眈眈。</p><p>宁王称王,显然为时过早。</p><p>整车利润正在向动力电池系统与以AI芯片为主的智能要素转移,如果厂商不想为他人作嫁衣裳,就只能亲自下场,这一点,每个厂商都很清楚,所有有资金以及技术能力的厂商都会将这两条腿牢牢掌握在体内。</p><h2>二、一度被LG新能源逼至悬崖边上</h2><p>2020年12月,LG化学也分拆出LG新能源,启动了韩国有史以来规模最大的一次IPO,开盘后一路上涨,已经进入韩国市场的前二大市值公司,仅次于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>。</p><p>LG新能源在2019年成为国产特斯拉电池供应商,2020年借着国产特斯拉销量猛增的东风,上半年全球份额曾一度超越宁德时代,登顶全球第一。</p><p>LG新能源的产能遍布中国、美国、波兰、德国、澳大利亚等国,现代、特斯拉、大众等欧美韩主流车企几乎都是LG新能源的客户。</p><p>市场研究机构SNE Research发布了2020年全球动力电池装机量排行榜,LG新能源动力电池装机量市场占有率一度上升至了23.4%,与宁德时代只有差不多一个百分点的差距。</p><p>但是去年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HYUD.UK\">现代汽车</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>因为LG新能源电池问题频频起火,而进行了大规模的召回,LG新能源承担将近180亿元的召回成本,品牌形象插水,才让宁德时代有了喘息之机。纵是如此,LG新能源,2021年的市场占有率依然高达20.3%。</p><p>这是LG新能源用生命补贴厂商换来的市场空间。</p><p>宁德时代毛利率常年保持在27%以上,其中净利润保持在10%。而LG新能源净利润率一直非常低,一直徘徊在盈亏线上下,2019年其未剥离上市前的母公司利润率受其拖累亏损率达百分之二十几。</p><p>难怪虽然安全问题频发,厂商们依然用脚给LG新能投票,在自己能下场干之前,扶植更多的供应商才符合厂商们的核心利益。</p><p>LG新能源方面拟到2023年规划电池产能扩大到300GWh、2025年到430GWh。</p><p>得益于在海外市场大肆扩张,今年1月份LG新能源方面表示,考虑到电池订单积压,预计该公司在全球市场的份额将很快超过宁德时代。</p><p>比如2021年5月份,SNE Research的单月战报中,在“小型乘用车”项目,LG新能源其实就曾经短暂超越过宁德时代,但是并没有将宁德时代比较强势的卡车、巴士算入其中。</p><p>但是无论如何,厂商、资本以及竞争对手的合谋,已经削减了宁德的利润,降低了自己的成本。</p><p>宁德时代动力电池系统产品毛利率从2018年上半年的32.67%,滑落到了2021年上半年的23%,宁王也在被迫让利整车厂商。</p><p>更不用说,LG新能源血亏补贴厂商的大规模流血上市,对于智能汽车整车厂商就是成本的转嫁。</p><p>财报显示,2017-2020年,宁德时代动力电池系统的毛利率分别为35.25%、34.1%、28.45%、26.56%。但是很多车企的毛利率只有个位数。据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>财务副总裁 Dennis 表示,小鹏汽车IPO之后,毛利率常年徘徊在10%附近。</p><p>据其透露,若切换成本更低的电池,预计能为毛利率提升带来 1%-2%的贡献。</p><p>金杯共汝饮,白刃不相饶。这种纯粹的利润分布的商战还会继续。</p><h2>三、整车厂商、资本与竞争对手的合谋</h2><p>坊间传闻,宁德时代董事长曾毓群曾为引入中创新航一事与何小鹏大吵一架。中创新航还取代宁德时代成为了广汽新能源的第一供应商。特斯拉、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、大众似乎也都搭上了比亚迪。</p><p>在整车厂商、资本以及竞争对手的共同发力围剿下,宁德时代先发的产能优势已经被大幅削减。</p><p>大规模野心勃勃的资本,正在这个方兴未艾的赛道寻找机会,兴风作浪。</p><p>动力电池这种建设周期长、投资重的制造业,在技术差异不大的情况下,市场份额,很大程度上是由产能决定的。</p><p>去年以来,多家供应商都在储备粮草,公布了惊人的扩产计划,产能正大幅扩张。</p><p>打仗需要弹药。</p><p>2021年8月,宁德时代公告称,现有资金无法完全满足未来业务发展需要,拟募资不超过582亿元。在宁德时代已公布的扩产规划中,其2025年产能将达到600~700GWh;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002074\">国轩高科</a>2025年产能规划目标为300GWh;中创新航已量产及在建的电池产能超过100GWh,到2025年规划产能将超过500GWh。</p><p>2021年12月,中国证监会国际部披露了中创新航提交的港股上市申请材料,而且它仅2021年就完成了120亿元股权融资,投后估值达600亿元。比亚迪旗下的弗迪电池下一步也将分拆上市,独立融资。</p><p>今年1月13日,蜂巢能源已与相关机构签署了上市辅导协议,计划在今年3月前完成蜂巢能源上市申请文件的准备工作。2021年,蜂巢能源先后完成了A轮(35亿元)和B轮(102.8亿)融资,关于2025年产能目标也从200GWh提升至600GWh。</p><p>还有更凶猛的群狼尾随而来:宝马签约<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300014\">亿纬锂能</a>,蔚来同卫蓝新能源达成合作,奔驰、吉利等老客户纷纷自建动力电池工厂。大众、福特、长城、通用、吉利<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601238\">广汽集团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">上汽集团</a>都有着着自己的电池研发以及投资计划。</p><p>车企自建电池厂已经潮流滚滚。</p><p>当然,宁王在过去多年在动力电池的技术积累以及经验积累,特别是安全性,还有在上游锂矿的布局,都让它今天有了单挑群雄的资本,厂商们的阳谋,未必就能得逞。</p><p>更为致命的,可能是竞争对手在技术路线上的釜底抽薪。</p><h2>四、下一代技术路线呼之欲出</h2><p>与此同时新的技术路线也层出不穷,所有整车厂商都已经摩拳擦掌,布局自己的电池生产。</p><p>今年二月,松下电器首席财务官Hirokazu Umeda表示,预计在4月开始的财年初在日本试生产4680电动汽车电池,将率先满足特斯拉的需求。</p><p>特斯拉在2021年9月正式公布了4680电芯,号称单体能量提高5倍,整车续航里程增加16%,还能节省86%的成本。</p><p>近期,美国德雷塞尔大学的工程师们也取得了一项突破性进展,给锂硫电池带来显著的性能提升,其存储能量的潜力是目前锂离子电池的几倍。经过一年的测试和4000次充放电循环,阴极保持稳定,科学家说,这相当于10年的常规使用。该团队用这种负极制作的电池原型,可以提供标准锂离子电池三倍的容量。</p><p>此外,相比传统锂电池,固态锂电池的安全性更好,能量密度更高,可以大幅提高续航能力,后面经济性能如果能够超越液态电池,将会成为动力电池新的统治者。</p><p>去年12月份,由大众和比尔·盖茨支持的初创公司Quantum Scape公布最新的固态电池性能数据,数据显示,这种固态电池能将电动汽车的续航里程提高80%,并在15分钟内充满80%的电量,正常使用寿命能高达12年。</p><p>根据相关机构预测,全球固态锂电池的需求量在2025年、2030年分别有望达到44.2GWh、494.9GWh,2030年全球固态电池市场空间有望达到1500亿元以上。</p><p>这将是下一代电池技术的热门选手,但是对中国局势并不友好。</p><p>日本的固态电池专利高达916件,几乎占了半壁江山,中国位居第二,专利有362件。可在全固态电池方面,日本是657件,占比75%,中国128件,韩国37件,美国只有29件。</p><p>但是这条技术路线还处在探索阶段,我们也并没有完全放弃。</p><p>2021年,蔚来就宣布将在2022年发布一款单体能量密度达360Wh/kg的固态电池包产品,国内几家固态电池企业像辉能科技、清陶能源、卫蓝新能源都有近期量产固态电池的计划。</p><p>宁德时代也正在投入研发的固态锂金属电池。</p><p>宝马、福特、大众也不例外。</p><p>旧的道路已经挤满了竞争者,新的道路的入门券似乎已经掌握在别人的手里。</p><p>这正是此前盈利预测大涨150.75%-195.52%的宁王,股价连跌百分之三十的基本产业逻辑。</p><p>这是智能汽车厂商的合谋,一方面通过新增电池供应商,减少对比亚迪的依赖,另一方面,通过亲自上阵,将这片战略要地,从成本中心,变成利润中心。</p><p>“它成了灵魂,上汽成了躯体。对于这样的结果,上汽是不能接受的,要把灵魂掌握在自己手中。”</p><p>去年6月,上汽集团董事长陈虹如此回应为何不与华为合作的问题,将智能汽车与供应商之间的难以妥协的利益分歧,摆上了台面。</p><p>比亚迪更是在电池、芯片乃至内饰材料上,均全套生产自研,特斯拉和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>同样进行了芯片及核心技术全栈自研。</p><p>大众收购自动驾驶软件初创公司Argo AI,后者是Alphabet旗下自动驾驶汽车子公司Waymo的竞争对手。</p><p>三位新老巨头,都已经为后来者指出了一条清晰的道路。无论动力电池、芯片、软件系统还是数据,要把核心技术、利润掌握在自己手中,长远而言,选择去供应商化,已经成为智能汽车厂商必然选择。不然只会沦为别人的躯体。</p><p>宁王也别想想着总有人要害朕的,利用自己的先发优势与市场优势,研发下一代电池,建立起更强的技术壁垒,才有明天,有明天才有市值。</p><p>事实上动力电池的竞争已经不只是单个公司的竞争,更是行业性的利润博弈,以及国家实力的碰撞与兴衰的表征。</p><p>这是一个百年产业正在进行的轰轰烈的历史性革命,鹿死谁手,要看谁离鹿更近,眼光更长远,谁的弓箭更强,技术更娴熟。</p></body></html>","source":"qsbt","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>观点 | 谁要害宁王?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n观点 | 谁要害宁王?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-16 10:34 北京时间 <a href=https://36kr.com/p/1615961891016071><strong>秋水笔弹</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要:即使宁德辟谣属实,宁德时代股价崩盘,背后真正的隐患依然在扩大化,实际上,即使是更多的人都在扩产——供应商策略甚至是去供应大趋势。宁王股价崩盘,疆土被肢解,分封。这是整车厂商、资本与电池厂商的合围、共谋的结果。加冕时刻,还远远未到。当然能够被迅速替代,也是因为没有足够的技术壁垒,而且汽车动力电池虽然已经成熟,但是技术以及技术路线都还在非常早期的探索阶段,群雄逐鹿,每个玩家都觉得自己还有希望。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1615961891016071\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983e0432c72ee1117f6c5b8a19ed6e25","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK1539":"汽车股","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4509":"腾讯概念","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","F":"福特汽车","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK1504":"苹果概念","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK1587":"次新股","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK1522":"燃料电池","BK4519":"光伏太阳能","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK1594":"碳中和概念股","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK1582":"深圳本地概念股","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1540":"电池","BK1509":"特斯拉概念股","BK1580":"烟草概念","002594":"比亚迪","00285":"比亚迪电子","NIO":"蔚来","01211":"比亚迪股份","BK1149":"通信设备","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK1607":"新IT概念","BK1589":"北水核心资产","JKS":"晶科能源","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK1515":"抗疫概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1615961891016071","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2211653787","content_text":"摘要:即使宁德辟谣属实,宁德时代股价崩盘,背后真正的隐患依然在扩大化,实际上,即使是更多的人都在扩产——供应商策略甚至是去供应大趋势。宁王股价崩盘,疆土被肢解,分封。这是整车厂商、资本与电池厂商的合围、共谋的结果。加冕时刻,还远远未到。当然能够被迅速替代,也是因为没有足够的技术壁垒,而且汽车动力电池虽然已经成熟,但是技术以及技术路线都还在非常早期的探索阶段,群雄逐鹿,每个玩家都觉得自己还有希望。宁德时代昨日发布声明称,近期网络平台相继出现关于宁德时代被美国制裁、被剔除创业板权重指数、与特斯拉谈崩等一系列恶意谣言,引发市场误解曲解,影响企业声誉。谣言无事生非毫无根据,性质恶劣。为维护企业正当权益,2022年2月12日,贵司已向公安机关正式报案,将对造谣者依法追究法律责任。创业板一哥宁德时代大动肝火的同时,一则传闻在市场发酵。传闻称,比亚迪从宁德时代那边拿走了部分特斯拉的订单,获得了特斯拉20.4 万台/年的电池订单,刀片电池单体型号为 C112F,量产时间为今年 3 月。过去一周,宁德时代股价从 606 元跌至 489.99 元,大跌 17%。较去年最高点 692 元也已跌去近三成。即使宁德辟谣属实,宁德时代股价崩盘,背后真正的隐患依然在扩大化——智能汽车厂商多供应商策略、甚至去供应商化已是大趋势。汽车产业,以及身处其中的所有巨头,正面临百年未遇之巨变。世纪大战硝烟正浓,鹿死谁手未可知。一、整车厂商要将成本中心,变为利润中心智能汽车与传统汽车,有着完全不同的逻辑结构、成本结构,因而对传统汽车产业的打击,是全面摧毁式的。今天,汽车的动力、安全、底盘、车身等控制系统以及运行系统,都将进行全盘电动化、智能化,新的计算架构,将会重塑我们对汽车的认知,并且重塑汽车的价值链,对传统汽车的产业链价值是一次深远、全面性的行业性颠覆。以前汽车是一个需要不断打磨技术、积累经验的机械系统,是一个封闭的系统,关键技术以及经验,最重要的是利润,都掌握在各家汽车制造商手中。到今天,电动车、以及智能汽车的核心部件都已经模块化,从动力电池系统到芯片、智能软件系统,都是核心的成本以及利润中心,如果都掌握在外部供应商手中,整车厂商如果只是将这些拼到一起,就会彻底沦为代工厂,只能赚取非常微薄的代工利润。电动汽车最大的成本来自于电池、电机、电控“三电”系统,在电动汽车整体成本中占据了近70%的成本,其中动力电池占到40%,可以说是所有厂商最重的成本,也是要解决的头号成本问题。水哥以为,电气化只是未来汽车的第一形态,正在推进的智能化是未来汽车的第二形态,机器人、全自动化,将会是未来汽车的主流形态,当然个人交通像飞行器发展才是我们未来个人交通的终极形态。电动车还在进一步向智能汽车、自动驾驶进化,未来芯片、智能传感器、算法系统将会是智能汽车赛道新的成本中心以及利润中心。未来的汽车就是架在轮子上的计算机。芯片、软件、电池动力系统成为汽车最大的三大利润中心,这三大件都是厂商不可能白白放过的,除非以后真的出现具有关键技术专利壁垒的垄断性供应商,否则,都会下场亲自干。同时,这种巨大的变迁决定了智能汽车整车厂商与供应商关系的相互依存与剑拔弩张。未来定价权、规则定制权的斗争才刚刚开始。因此所有厂商都不会把这种战略要地,放在外部,每个厂商都在深入介入动力电池领域的研发生产以及投资,长期而言一定在分薄宁德电池的份额。同时还有一大堆实力雄厚的电池供应商虎视眈眈。宁王称王,显然为时过早。整车利润正在向动力电池系统与以AI芯片为主的智能要素转移,如果厂商不想为他人作嫁衣裳,就只能亲自下场,这一点,每个厂商都很清楚,所有有资金以及技术能力的厂商都会将这两条腿牢牢掌握在体内。二、一度被LG新能源逼至悬崖边上2020年12月,LG化学也分拆出LG新能源,启动了韩国有史以来规模最大的一次IPO,开盘后一路上涨,已经进入韩国市场的前二大市值公司,仅次于三星电子。LG新能源在2019年成为国产特斯拉电池供应商,2020年借着国产特斯拉销量猛增的东风,上半年全球份额曾一度超越宁德时代,登顶全球第一。LG新能源的产能遍布中国、美国、波兰、德国、澳大利亚等国,现代、特斯拉、大众等欧美韩主流车企几乎都是LG新能源的客户。市场研究机构SNE Research发布了2020年全球动力电池装机量排行榜,LG新能源动力电池装机量市场占有率一度上升至了23.4%,与宁德时代只有差不多一个百分点的差距。但是去年现代汽车与通用汽车因为LG新能源电池问题频频起火,而进行了大规模的召回,LG新能源承担将近180亿元的召回成本,品牌形象插水,才让宁德时代有了喘息之机。纵是如此,LG新能源,2021年的市场占有率依然高达20.3%。这是LG新能源用生命补贴厂商换来的市场空间。宁德时代毛利率常年保持在27%以上,其中净利润保持在10%。而LG新能源净利润率一直非常低,一直徘徊在盈亏线上下,2019年其未剥离上市前的母公司利润率受其拖累亏损率达百分之二十几。难怪虽然安全问题频发,厂商们依然用脚给LG新能投票,在自己能下场干之前,扶植更多的供应商才符合厂商们的核心利益。LG新能源方面拟到2023年规划电池产能扩大到300GWh、2025年到430GWh。得益于在海外市场大肆扩张,今年1月份LG新能源方面表示,考虑到电池订单积压,预计该公司在全球市场的份额将很快超过宁德时代。比如2021年5月份,SNE Research的单月战报中,在“小型乘用车”项目,LG新能源其实就曾经短暂超越过宁德时代,但是并没有将宁德时代比较强势的卡车、巴士算入其中。但是无论如何,厂商、资本以及竞争对手的合谋,已经削减了宁德的利润,降低了自己的成本。宁德时代动力电池系统产品毛利率从2018年上半年的32.67%,滑落到了2021年上半年的23%,宁王也在被迫让利整车厂商。更不用说,LG新能源血亏补贴厂商的大规模流血上市,对于智能汽车整车厂商就是成本的转嫁。财报显示,2017-2020年,宁德时代动力电池系统的毛利率分别为35.25%、34.1%、28.45%、26.56%。但是很多车企的毛利率只有个位数。据小鹏汽车财务副总裁 Dennis 表示,小鹏汽车IPO之后,毛利率常年徘徊在10%附近。据其透露,若切换成本更低的电池,预计能为毛利率提升带来 1%-2%的贡献。金杯共汝饮,白刃不相饶。这种纯粹的利润分布的商战还会继续。三、整车厂商、资本与竞争对手的合谋坊间传闻,宁德时代董事长曾毓群曾为引入中创新航一事与何小鹏大吵一架。中创新航还取代宁德时代成为了广汽新能源的第一供应商。特斯拉、蔚来、大众似乎也都搭上了比亚迪。在整车厂商、资本以及竞争对手的共同发力围剿下,宁德时代先发的产能优势已经被大幅削减。大规模野心勃勃的资本,正在这个方兴未艾的赛道寻找机会,兴风作浪。动力电池这种建设周期长、投资重的制造业,在技术差异不大的情况下,市场份额,很大程度上是由产能决定的。去年以来,多家供应商都在储备粮草,公布了惊人的扩产计划,产能正大幅扩张。打仗需要弹药。2021年8月,宁德时代公告称,现有资金无法完全满足未来业务发展需要,拟募资不超过582亿元。在宁德时代已公布的扩产规划中,其2025年产能将达到600~700GWh;国轩高科2025年产能规划目标为300GWh;中创新航已量产及在建的电池产能超过100GWh,到2025年规划产能将超过500GWh。2021年12月,中国证监会国际部披露了中创新航提交的港股上市申请材料,而且它仅2021年就完成了120亿元股权融资,投后估值达600亿元。比亚迪旗下的弗迪电池下一步也将分拆上市,独立融资。今年1月13日,蜂巢能源已与相关机构签署了上市辅导协议,计划在今年3月前完成蜂巢能源上市申请文件的准备工作。2021年,蜂巢能源先后完成了A轮(35亿元)和B轮(102.8亿)融资,关于2025年产能目标也从200GWh提升至600GWh。还有更凶猛的群狼尾随而来:宝马签约亿纬锂能,蔚来同卫蓝新能源达成合作,奔驰、吉利等老客户纷纷自建动力电池工厂。大众、福特、长城、通用、吉利广汽集团、上汽集团都有着着自己的电池研发以及投资计划。车企自建电池厂已经潮流滚滚。当然,宁王在过去多年在动力电池的技术积累以及经验积累,特别是安全性,还有在上游锂矿的布局,都让它今天有了单挑群雄的资本,厂商们的阳谋,未必就能得逞。更为致命的,可能是竞争对手在技术路线上的釜底抽薪。四、下一代技术路线呼之欲出与此同时新的技术路线也层出不穷,所有整车厂商都已经摩拳擦掌,布局自己的电池生产。今年二月,松下电器首席财务官Hirokazu Umeda表示,预计在4月开始的财年初在日本试生产4680电动汽车电池,将率先满足特斯拉的需求。特斯拉在2021年9月正式公布了4680电芯,号称单体能量提高5倍,整车续航里程增加16%,还能节省86%的成本。近期,美国德雷塞尔大学的工程师们也取得了一项突破性进展,给锂硫电池带来显著的性能提升,其存储能量的潜力是目前锂离子电池的几倍。经过一年的测试和4000次充放电循环,阴极保持稳定,科学家说,这相当于10年的常规使用。该团队用这种负极制作的电池原型,可以提供标准锂离子电池三倍的容量。此外,相比传统锂电池,固态锂电池的安全性更好,能量密度更高,可以大幅提高续航能力,后面经济性能如果能够超越液态电池,将会成为动力电池新的统治者。去年12月份,由大众和比尔·盖茨支持的初创公司Quantum Scape公布最新的固态电池性能数据,数据显示,这种固态电池能将电动汽车的续航里程提高80%,并在15分钟内充满80%的电量,正常使用寿命能高达12年。根据相关机构预测,全球固态锂电池的需求量在2025年、2030年分别有望达到44.2GWh、494.9GWh,2030年全球固态电池市场空间有望达到1500亿元以上。这将是下一代电池技术的热门选手,但是对中国局势并不友好。日本的固态电池专利高达916件,几乎占了半壁江山,中国位居第二,专利有362件。可在全固态电池方面,日本是657件,占比75%,中国128件,韩国37件,美国只有29件。但是这条技术路线还处在探索阶段,我们也并没有完全放弃。2021年,蔚来就宣布将在2022年发布一款单体能量密度达360Wh/kg的固态电池包产品,国内几家固态电池企业像辉能科技、清陶能源、卫蓝新能源都有近期量产固态电池的计划。宁德时代也正在投入研发的固态锂金属电池。宝马、福特、大众也不例外。旧的道路已经挤满了竞争者,新的道路的入门券似乎已经掌握在别人的手里。这正是此前盈利预测大涨150.75%-195.52%的宁王,股价连跌百分之三十的基本产业逻辑。这是智能汽车厂商的合谋,一方面通过新增电池供应商,减少对比亚迪的依赖,另一方面,通过亲自上阵,将这片战略要地,从成本中心,变成利润中心。“它成了灵魂,上汽成了躯体。对于这样的结果,上汽是不能接受的,要把灵魂掌握在自己手中。”去年6月,上汽集团董事长陈虹如此回应为何不与华为合作的问题,将智能汽车与供应商之间的难以妥协的利益分歧,摆上了台面。比亚迪更是在电池、芯片乃至内饰材料上,均全套生产自研,特斯拉和苹果同样进行了芯片及核心技术全栈自研。大众收购自动驾驶软件初创公司Argo 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