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水云间
2022-03-14
标题党,高瓴一点都不慌,巴菲特的很多持仓也经历过很多下行周期,不断新高,别拿一时的下跌乱喷
抱歉,原内容已删除
水云间
2018-11-21
$Keysight Technologies Inc(KEYS)$恭喜keysight加入标普500指数
水云间
2018-10-07
$辉盛研究系统(FDS)$全球顶级数据提供公司factset,老虎证券这名字要改一下
水云间
2018-09-15
$罗氏控股(RHHBY)$市值不对吧,罗氏制药不可能是200多亿美金 开玩笑吧
水云间
2018-08-03
精准医疗基因检测
$Genomic Health(GHDX)$美国精准医疗基因检测公司
精准医疗基因检测
水云间
2018-07-25
营收增长超预期,eps miss
$博实乐教育(BEDU)$ eps miss 2018 Third Fiscal Quarter Financial Highlights
营收增长超预期,eps miss
水云间
2018-07-24
双beat
谷歌双beat
双beat
水云间
2018-07-15
要月亮不要星星全球垄断三年一倍asml
$阿斯麦(ASML)$ 先说一下结论:准备小幅度买入ASML,安全边际价格在170美金,和152美金,只买三层。投资收益预期:持有三年正常情况下可以收益百分之50到百分之80、 具体分析过程: 1.ASML强大的护城河:ASML在行业中基本处于绝对垄断的地位。这具体可以分成四点来说。一个是ASML已经掌握EUV光刻机的核心技术(注意:已经量产,投资者不需要承担EUV研发失败的风险,咱们享受未来不断复制出货的这部分增长带来的利润),这已经把其他对手更是远远地甩在了后面,未来有且只有ASML能够为厂商们供应EUV光刻机。二个是EUV光刻机的研发费用非常的高,这足以让其他厂商望而却步,研发成功EUV光刻机,需要至少投入200亿美金。三个是台积电、三星和英特尔等芯片制造巨头都和ASML有着十分紧密的合伙关系。四个是ASML和卡尔蔡是亲密的战略同盟,卡尔蔡司在自己所属的领域,是“寻遍天下无敌手”,即便是有另外的厂商要研发EUV光刻机,也几乎没可能绕开卡尔蔡司的光学系统技术,ASML现在拥有蔡司 24.9%的股权。换种说法是,只要ASML始终保持着健康且稳健的运营,不犯下致命的错误,将来恐怕是再无其他厂商能打败ASML。 2. 优秀的商业模式:垄断销售新产品(拥有定价权) 后续维护高额稳定的服务收入 3. 稳健的财务数据: 1. 资产负债率 百分之38 2. 近三年 复合营收增长率百分之20多 3.17年净资产收益率达到百分之20.67. 4. 毛利率近三年稳定在百分之45以上,净利润率达到百分之25以上,每年稳健提升。 4. 2017年营收分布:主营总收入90.53亿欧元(其中设备收入63.74亿欧元,设备售后服务收入26亿欧元),设备销售包括 11台EUV系统,每台1.1亿欧 共11亿欧元,非EUV设备共282台,共52亿欧元。 未来大批量的生产设备都会被EUV替代。同时服务收入也
要月亮不要星星全球垄断三年一倍asml
水云间
2018-06-09
低调低调
$TapImmune Inc(TPIV)$低调低调
低调低调
水云间
2018-05-26
对聚美优品投资逻辑的思考
$聚美优品(JMEI)$$聚美优品(JMEI)$ 聚美优品的情况我谈一下,第一,投资烟蒂股的祖师爷是施洛斯,他是怎么做烟蒂股的,买一堆烟蒂股,用概率取胜,不能重仓,并且有严格的买入卖出标准。没有发这次财报之前,按照烟蒂股的严格买入标准,聚美优品的买入合适点是2美金,发了财报之后,公司基本面改变,估值中枢下移到1.5美金左右,并且聚美优品基本面恶化一个财务指标是经营性现金流开始流出4亿美金,这个基本动摇了烟蒂股的投资逻辑。
对聚美优品投资逻辑的思考
水云间
2018-05-23
wind 的爱奇艺数据
$爱奇艺(IQ)$ ttm pe 47
wind 的爱奇艺数据
水云间
2018-05-18
烂财报博实乐必破12美金
$博实乐教育(BEDU)$博实乐的入学人数在每年9月份就确定了,今年的入学人数很少,财报很差,短期上涨没有量,持有这个股票的投资者抓紧卖出。
烂财报博实乐必破12美金
水云间
2018-04-26
bedu不用割了,如果仓位不重
$博实乐教育(BEDU)$今天跌的越深,明天飞的越高
bedu不用割了,如果仓位不重
水云间
2018-04-02
博实乐估值高增长慢市场期望过高
$博实乐教育(BEDU)$博实乐这个学校并没有异地开发复制的能力,除了广东一家国际学校之外,其他几所国际学校毛利率很低 原因就是招不来学生,原因不仅仅是学校成熟问题,有一所已经开始招生6年了,入学率不到百分之40,博实乐的管理效率低,管理费用相比枫叶教育也比较高,建议10美金以下再考虑。
博实乐估值高增长慢市场期望过高
水云间
2018-03-31
博实乐毛利率很低建议观望
$博实乐教育(BEDU)$博实乐毛利率很低建议观望,底部在12美金左右。
博实乐毛利率很低建议观望
水云间
2018-03-22
fedu的入学人数同比增长只有百分之5
$四季教育(FEDU)$ 教育股的特点是学生人数乘以学费就是收入,现在的营收增长支撑不了现在的估值
fedu的入学人数同比增长只有百分之5
水云间
2018-03-20
好行业但这个公司护城河不强只能按烟蒂股标
$多尼斯(DOGZ)$ 宠物行业好行业,但是这个公司主营收入依赖几个大客户 ,并且产品一般,不能按常规的成长股投,要有更高的安全边际。按格雷厄姆的烟蒂股方法做
好行业但这个公司护城河不强只能按烟蒂股标
水云间
2018-03-20
博实乐四大利空
$博实乐教育(BEDU)$$好未来(TAL)$ $新东方(EDU)$ 博实乐4大利空,1.前期估值透支厉害,营收增速和估值不匹配 2. 上市半年新股解禁期,不少员工都在卖股 3.最近增发股份,稀释股东权益。 4.国家禁止补课受龙头股学而思tal抛压大。内部消息,tal这个季度释放利润可能是增发股份。
博实乐四大利空
水云间
2018-02-23
被交易所勒令退市
$长岛区块链(LBCC)$ 退市了
被交易所勒令退市
水云间
2017-12-22
百度可能戴维斯双击,阿里可能戴维斯双双杀
$百度(BIDU)$ 百度可能戴维斯双击,阿里可能戴维斯双双杀
百度可能戴维斯双击,阿里可能戴维斯双双杀
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开玩笑吧","listText":"$罗氏控股(RHHBY)$市值不对吧,罗氏制药不可能是200多亿美金 开玩笑吧","text":"$罗氏控股(RHHBY)$市值不对吧,罗氏制药不可能是200多亿美金 开玩笑吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/268814","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":235022,"gmtCreate":1533304502780,"gmtModify":1704898843883,"author":{"id":"2271003572143","authorId":"2271003572143","name":"水云间","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18df4874cb5a62e96c49cf72ed315d35","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"2271003572143","authorIdStr":"2271003572143"},"themes":[],"title":"精准医疗基因检测","htmlText":"$Genomic Health(GHDX)$美国精准医疗基因检测公司","listText":"$Genomic Health(GHDX)$美国精准医疗基因检测公司","text":"$Genomic 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X Lithium ETF(LIT)$ 电动车发展路径不确定,但是锂金属的长期需求会越来越大,,这个etf里面有主要是全球四大锂矿,加全球主要的新能源电池最主要供应商松下和LG化学,还有特斯拉,和比亚迪,管理费用不高,每年百分之0.76左右,今年应该是新能源开始的元年,短期也看不到锂金属被取代的可能。","listText":"$Global X Lithium ETF(LIT)$ 电动车发展路径不确定,但是锂金属的长期需求会越来越大,,这个etf里面有主要是全球四大锂矿,加全球主要的新能源电池最主要供应商松下和LG化学,还有特斯拉,和比亚迪,管理费用不高,每年百分之0.76左右,今年应该是新能源开始的元年,短期也看不到锂金属被取代的可能。","text":"$Global X Lithium ETF(LIT)$ 电动车发展路径不确定,但是锂金属的长期需求会越来越大,,这个etf里面有主要是全球四大锂矿,加全球主要的新能源电池最主要供应商松下和LG化学,还有特斯拉,和比亚迪,管理费用不高,每年百分之0.76左右,今年应该是新能源开始的元年,短期也看不到锂金属被取代的可能。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133059","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":219277,"gmtCreate":1531654285538,"gmtModify":1704896823196,"author":{"id":"2271003572143","authorId":"2271003572143","name":"水云间","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18df4874cb5a62e96c49cf72ed315d35","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"2271003572143","idStr":"2271003572143"},"themes":[],"title":"要月亮不要星星全球垄断三年一倍asml","htmlText":"$阿斯麦(ASML)$ 先说一下结论:准备小幅度买入ASML,安全边际价格在170美金,和152美金,只买三层。投资收益预期:持有三年正常情况下可以收益百分之50到百分之80、 具体分析过程: 1.ASML强大的护城河:ASML在行业中基本处于绝对垄断的地位。这具体可以分成四点来说。一个是ASML已经掌握EUV光刻机的核心技术(注意:已经量产,投资者不需要承担EUV研发失败的风险,咱们享受未来不断复制出货的这部分增长带来的利润),这已经把其他对手更是远远地甩在了后面,未来有且只有ASML能够为厂商们供应EUV光刻机。二个是EUV光刻机的研发费用非常的高,这足以让其他厂商望而却步,研发成功EUV光刻机,需要至少投入200亿美金。三个是台积电、三星和英特尔等芯片制造巨头都和ASML有着十分紧密的合伙关系。四个是ASML和卡尔蔡是亲密的战略同盟,卡尔蔡司在自己所属的领域,是“寻遍天下无敌手”,即便是有另外的厂商要研发EUV光刻机,也几乎没可能绕开卡尔蔡司的光学系统技术,ASML现在拥有蔡司 24.9%的股权。换种说法是,只要ASML始终保持着健康且稳健的运营,不犯下致命的错误,将来恐怕是再无其他厂商能打败ASML。 2. 优秀的商业模式:垄断销售新产品(拥有定价权) 后续维护高额稳定的服务收入 3. 稳健的财务数据: 1. 资产负债率 百分之38 2. 近三年 复合营收增长率百分之20多 3.17年净资产收益率达到百分之20.67. 4. 毛利率近三年稳定在百分之45以上,净利润率达到百分之25以上,每年稳健提升。 4. 2017年营收分布:主营总收入90.53亿欧元(其中设备收入63.74亿欧元,设备售后服务收入26亿欧元),设备销售包括 11台EUV系统,每台1.1亿欧 共11亿欧元,非EUV设备共282台,共52亿欧元。 未来大批量的生产设备都会被EUV替代。同时服务收入也","listText":"$阿斯麦(ASML)$ 先说一下结论:准备小幅度买入ASML,安全边际价格在170美金,和152美金,只买三层。投资收益预期:持有三年正常情况下可以收益百分之50到百分之80、 具体分析过程: 1.ASML强大的护城河:ASML在行业中基本处于绝对垄断的地位。这具体可以分成四点来说。一个是ASML已经掌握EUV光刻机的核心技术(注意:已经量产,投资者不需要承担EUV研发失败的风险,咱们享受未来不断复制出货的这部分增长带来的利润),这已经把其他对手更是远远地甩在了后面,未来有且只有ASML能够为厂商们供应EUV光刻机。二个是EUV光刻机的研发费用非常的高,这足以让其他厂商望而却步,研发成功EUV光刻机,需要至少投入200亿美金。三个是台积电、三星和英特尔等芯片制造巨头都和ASML有着十分紧密的合伙关系。四个是ASML和卡尔蔡是亲密的战略同盟,卡尔蔡司在自己所属的领域,是“寻遍天下无敌手”,即便是有另外的厂商要研发EUV光刻机,也几乎没可能绕开卡尔蔡司的光学系统技术,ASML现在拥有蔡司 24.9%的股权。换种说法是,只要ASML始终保持着健康且稳健的运营,不犯下致命的错误,将来恐怕是再无其他厂商能打败ASML。 2. 优秀的商业模式:垄断销售新产品(拥有定价权) 后续维护高额稳定的服务收入 3. 稳健的财务数据: 1. 资产负债率 百分之38 2. 近三年 复合营收增长率百分之20多 3.17年净资产收益率达到百分之20.67. 4. 毛利率近三年稳定在百分之45以上,净利润率达到百分之25以上,每年稳健提升。 4. 2017年营收分布:主营总收入90.53亿欧元(其中设备收入63.74亿欧元,设备售后服务收入26亿欧元),设备销售包括 11台EUV系统,每台1.1亿欧 共11亿欧元,非EUV设备共282台,共52亿欧元。 未来大批量的生产设备都会被EUV替代。同时服务收入也","text":"$阿斯麦(ASML)$ 先说一下结论:准备小幅度买入ASML,安全边际价格在170美金,和152美金,只买三层。投资收益预期:持有三年正常情况下可以收益百分之50到百分之80、 具体分析过程: 1.ASML强大的护城河:ASML在行业中基本处于绝对垄断的地位。这具体可以分成四点来说。一个是ASML已经掌握EUV光刻机的核心技术(注意:已经量产,投资者不需要承担EUV研发失败的风险,咱们享受未来不断复制出货的这部分增长带来的利润),这已经把其他对手更是远远地甩在了后面,未来有且只有ASML能够为厂商们供应EUV光刻机。二个是EUV光刻机的研发费用非常的高,这足以让其他厂商望而却步,研发成功EUV光刻机,需要至少投入200亿美金。三个是台积电、三星和英特尔等芯片制造巨头都和ASML有着十分紧密的合伙关系。四个是ASML和卡尔蔡是亲密的战略同盟,卡尔蔡司在自己所属的领域,是“寻遍天下无敌手”,即便是有另外的厂商要研发EUV光刻机,也几乎没可能绕开卡尔蔡司的光学系统技术,ASML现在拥有蔡司 24.9%的股权。换种说法是,只要ASML始终保持着健康且稳健的运营,不犯下致命的错误,将来恐怕是再无其他厂商能打败ASML。 2. 优秀的商业模式:垄断销售新产品(拥有定价权) 后续维护高额稳定的服务收入 3. 稳健的财务数据: 1. 资产负债率 百分之38 2. 近三年 复合营收增长率百分之20多 3.17年净资产收益率达到百分之20.67. 4. 毛利率近三年稳定在百分之45以上,净利润率达到百分之25以上,每年稳健提升。 4. 2017年营收分布:主营总收入90.53亿欧元(其中设备收入63.74亿欧元,设备售后服务收入26亿欧元),设备销售包括 11台EUV系统,每台1.1亿欧 共11亿欧元,非EUV设备共282台,共52亿欧元。 未来大批量的生产设备都会被EUV替代。同时服务收入也","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/219277","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479691393028980","authorId":"3479691393028980","name":"大地瓜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24da2bc7a0bdbdbdf2042ef25dfb3221","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3479691393028980","idStr":"3479691393028980"},"content":"问题是什么时候能跌到150-170啊...","text":"问题是什么时候能跌到150-170啊...","html":"问题是什么时候能跌到150-170啊..."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":107760,"gmtCreate":1509356523662,"gmtModify":1704882848750,"author":{"id":"2271003572143","authorId":"2271003572143","name":"水云间","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18df4874cb5a62e96c49cf72ed315d35","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"2271003572143","idStr":"2271003572143"},"themes":[],"title":"百度不算ai的合理1000亿美金","htmlText":"$百度(BIDU)$ 百度主营业务搜索和信息流一年40亿美金收入,按20pe算是800亿市值,爱奇艺100亿美金市值,携程+去哪儿是60亿美金市值,糯米是40亿美金市值,","listText":"$百度(BIDU)$ 百度主营业务搜索和信息流一年40亿美金收入,按20pe算是800亿市值,爱奇艺100亿美金市值,携程+去哪儿是60亿美金市值,糯米是40亿美金市值,","text":"$百度(BIDU)$ 百度主营业务搜索和信息流一年40亿美金收入,按20pe算是800亿市值,爱奇艺100亿美金市值,携程+去哪儿是60亿美金市值,糯米是40亿美金市值,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3464659690747715","authorId":"3464659690747715","name":"zzzzzq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3464659690747715","idStr":"3464659690747715"},"content":"20pe这季财报没去掉出售外卖额外收益吧,去掉的话只有500亿左右","text":"20pe这季财报没去掉出售外卖额外收益吧,去掉的话只有500亿左右","html":"20pe这季财报没去掉出售外卖额外收益吧,去掉的话只有500亿左右"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":170033,"gmtCreate":1521719941339,"gmtModify":1704890656126,"author":{"id":"2271003572143","authorId":"2271003572143","name":"水云间","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18df4874cb5a62e96c49cf72ed315d35","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"2271003572143","idStr":"2271003572143"},"themes":[],"title":"fedu的入学人数同比增长只有百分之5","htmlText":"$四季教育(FEDU)$ 教育股的特点是学生人数乘以学费就是收入,现在的营收增长支撑不了现在的估值","listText":"$四季教育(FEDU)$ 教育股的特点是学生人数乘以学费就是收入,现在的营收增长支撑不了现在的估值","text":"$四季教育(FEDU)$ 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百度可能戴维斯双击,阿里可能戴维斯双双杀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3471179539841502","authorId":"3471179539841502","name":"高大叔","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3471179539841502","idStr":"3471179539841502"},"content":"双击什么意思?双杀是买多买空都亏的意思吧","text":"双击什么意思?双杀是买多买空都亏的意思吧","html":"双击什么意思?双杀是买多买空都亏的意思吧"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635470167,"gmtCreate":1647232392103,"gmtModify":1647232392103,"author":{"id":"2271003572143","authorId":"2271003572143","name":"水云间","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18df4874cb5a62e96c49cf72ed315d35","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"2271003572143","idStr":"2271003572143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"标题党,高瓴一点都不慌,巴菲特的很多持仓也经历过很多下行周期,不断新高,别拿一时的下跌乱喷","listText":"标题党,高瓴一点都不慌,巴菲特的很多持仓也经历过很多下行周期,不断新高,别拿一时的下跌乱喷","text":"标题党,高瓴一点都不慌,巴菲特的很多持仓也经历过很多下行周期,不断新高,别拿一时的下跌乱喷","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635470167","repostId":"2219229090","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2219229090","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"民间投资共享平台——汇集投资高手,发现投资好点子。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"阿尔法工场研究院","id":"1026500124","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df70e92a2d64be896797ea06b5e676a"},"pubTimestamp":1647222164,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2219229090?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-14 09:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"高瓴,时间的朋友开始瑟瑟发抖?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2219229090","media":"阿尔法工场研究院","summary":"借新还旧,再次向3家银行申请贷款208亿元,偿还此前买股权的208亿元贷款,其所持格力的股份随之全部解除质押。这次倒腾之后,高瓴腾出了格力电器总股本3%、大约市值超过100亿元的流通股份。根据这次公告,截至2021年9月23日,高瓴及其一致行动人董明珠已累计质押格力电器股份825,756,418股。如此推测,对高瓴和珠海明骏而言,新一轮的补充质押,可能已经在路上。张磊和他的高瓴,也许已经在瑟瑟发抖之中。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>除了投资格力的“惨败”,高瓴在A股、港股、美股对其它所谓赛道股、明星股的投资,现在很多也已经巨额浮亏。不管是普通散户还是所谓的机构大佬,在暴跌面前,时间不是玫瑰,而是一把悬在头上的达摩克利斯之剑。</blockquote><p>今天就说说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">中国资本</a>市场最著名的机构大佬 —— 高瓴和他最大的一笔投资,入股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">格力电器</a>的惨事儿。</p><p>截至3月9日收盘,格力电器股价跌到了33.34元,这与2019年高瓴透过珠海明骏入股格力电器的价格 —— 46.17元已经相去甚远。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b300cfed2a4b1084459bb81f45d94f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2019年高瓴入股格力电器15%股权的这笔交易,耗资总额大约418亿元,是高瓴最大的一笔投资,几乎可以说是押上了张磊的身家性命。而这其中,大概有一半资金是高瓴从银行获得的贷款。</p><p>2019 年 12 月,珠海明骏与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">招商银行</a>等七家银行签订贷款协议,贷款总额约为 208亿元,融资系用于珠海明骏受让格力集团所持格力电器 15% 的股份。</p><p>同时珠海明骏将其所持格力电器股票也质押给贷款银行,作为贷款的主要条件之一。</p><p>2021年4月28日,在格力电器股价位于55元附近的时候,高瓴将这笔贷款做了一次倒腾。借新还旧,再次向3家银行申请贷款208亿元,偿还此前买股权的208亿元贷款,其所持格力的股份随之全部解除质押。</p><p>那个时候,格力电器股价涨至55元附近,高于其入股格力的成本价46.17元 。因此, 这次只需要质押其持有格力总股本12%的股份,大概7.22亿股就可以拿到208亿元的贷款。</p><p>这次倒腾之后,高瓴腾出了格力电器总股本3%、大约市值超过100亿元的流通股份。 当时有说,如果以50%的质押率计算,通过这次倒腾,高瓴获得了大约60亿元的资金。</p><p>不得不说,这次倒腾,高瓴赚了。不仅获得了一笔大约60亿元的资金,而且还大概率节省了不少贷款利息成本。</p><p>2020年初疫情大爆发后,很多商业银行对企业贷款的年利率降到了3.6%左右 ,而在2019 年12月高瓴第一次贷款时, 贷款年利率大概会明显高于3.6%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91f7d36a26f24d07bbce97d975396ab0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>有人按照2019年底时商业银行公允的年贷款利率6%算了一笔账,取200亿整数计算的话:</p><p>200亿*6%*5=60亿的利息支出,自有资金218亿,如果存银行3年,按照3%利息率,大概有218*3%*3=20亿的利息收入。</p><p>因此高瓴第一次入股格力电器的真实成本大概是:418亿+60亿+20亿=500亿 ,而非表面看到的418亿。</p><p>这500亿对应418亿是119%的溢价,由此算出:2019年12月高瓴入股格力电器的真实成本价大概是46.17*119%=55元,远远高于对外公布的46.17元。</p><p>尽管2021年4月的这次贷款倒腾,高瓴占了一点小便宜,然而张磊仍然只是猜中了开头,没能猜中结尾。随着格力电器股价的持续下跌,张磊的噩梦接踵而至。</p><p>先是2021年9月,格力电器发布公告,珠海明骏新增加大约9000万股质押给了中国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601288\">农业银行</a>珠海分行。</p><p>当时,格力电器的股价已经跌到了37-38元一线 ,距离2021年4月28日格力电器股价55元附近已经跌去了 30%以上。</p><p>无路可走,高瓴就只能继续增加股份质押了。</p><p>根据这次公告,截至2021年9月23日,高瓴及其一致行动人董明珠已累计质押格力电器股份825,756,418股。</p><p>而根据2019年12月时的入股协议可知,当时高瓴耗资近418亿元,总共也才获得了格力电器9.02亿股的股份。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11ef12b8cf7a413c87caaf28dbeed662\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>就算加上董明珠,珠海明骏和董明珠合计也只持有格力电器9.46亿股 。由此推测,在2021年9月23日这次新增质押后, 珠海明骏手里可能已经没剩多少股份可供新增质押的了。</p><p>一旦珠海明骏可供质押的股份趋于枯竭,引发连锁反应,这将是一件危险的事情。</p><p>而且,当时有网友算过,以60%的质押率计算,就算珠海明骏把所有持有的9.02亿股格力全都拿来抵押,大概最后可以支持格力电器的股价极限为31.92元 。</p><p>而2022年3月9日盘中,格力电器股价已经一度跌破31.92元, 最低跌到了31.69元 。</p><p>如此推测,对高瓴和珠海明骏而言,新一轮的补充质押,可能已经在路上。张磊和他的高瓴,也许已经在瑟瑟发抖之中。</p><p>从2019年12月至今短短两年多时间,从46.17元到今天的33.34元,再加上巨额的利息成本,高瓴已经巨额浮亏。</p><p>更可怕的是,由于这是一笔高杠杆的投资 (高瓴自有资金只有一半,而且股票质押率最高只有60% ),如今格力电器股价的持续下跌,时间带给张磊的不是玫瑰,也许是需要不断追加补充质押的噩梦。</p><p>除了投资格力的惨败,张磊和他的高瓴在A股、港股、美股对其它所谓赛道股、明星股的投资,现在很多也已经巨额浮亏。</p><p>以下是网友整理的截至2022年3月6日高瓴在A股、港股和美股市场的部分投资盈亏情况:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383af0fcae5c4f81a002e383d442a175\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d46af513c0f94f0aaadbfff6aaf230e3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e65aca0566b144c88a1f654ad4aa0a4e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>由上图可知:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603658\">安图生物</a>,2020年9月以95元买入278万股 , 如今股价跌至44.30元,腰斩有余;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">恒瑞医药</a>,2021年6月以70元买入1800多万股 ,如今股价跌至36.04元,近乎腰斩;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300676\">华大基因</a>,2021年2月, 定增价 145元 买入346万股, 如今76.99元,近乎腰斩;</p><p>只是目前,尚不清楚这些巨额浮亏的投资,高瓴有没有用杠杆,以及杠杆率有多高。如果也像格力电器那样,那么2022年,对张磊这位中国的巴菲特而言,可能将有不祥之兆。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高瓴,时间的朋友开始瑟瑟发抖?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高瓴,时间的朋友开始瑟瑟发抖?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1026500124\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df70e92a2d64be896797ea06b5e676a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">阿尔法工场研究院 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-14 09:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>除了投资格力的“惨败”,高瓴在A股、港股、美股对其它所谓赛道股、明星股的投资,现在很多也已经巨额浮亏。不管是普通散户还是所谓的机构大佬,在暴跌面前,时间不是玫瑰,而是一把悬在头上的达摩克利斯之剑。</blockquote><p>今天就说说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">中国资本</a>市场最著名的机构大佬 —— 高瓴和他最大的一笔投资,入股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">格力电器</a>的惨事儿。</p><p>截至3月9日收盘,格力电器股价跌到了33.34元,这与2019年高瓴透过珠海明骏入股格力电器的价格 —— 46.17元已经相去甚远。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b300cfed2a4b1084459bb81f45d94f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2019年高瓴入股格力电器15%股权的这笔交易,耗资总额大约418亿元,是高瓴最大的一笔投资,几乎可以说是押上了张磊的身家性命。而这其中,大概有一半资金是高瓴从银行获得的贷款。</p><p>2019 年 12 月,珠海明骏与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">招商银行</a>等七家银行签订贷款协议,贷款总额约为 208亿元,融资系用于珠海明骏受让格力集团所持格力电器 15% 的股份。</p><p>同时珠海明骏将其所持格力电器股票也质押给贷款银行,作为贷款的主要条件之一。</p><p>2021年4月28日,在格力电器股价位于55元附近的时候,高瓴将这笔贷款做了一次倒腾。借新还旧,再次向3家银行申请贷款208亿元,偿还此前买股权的208亿元贷款,其所持格力的股份随之全部解除质押。</p><p>那个时候,格力电器股价涨至55元附近,高于其入股格力的成本价46.17元 。因此, 这次只需要质押其持有格力总股本12%的股份,大概7.22亿股就可以拿到208亿元的贷款。</p><p>这次倒腾之后,高瓴腾出了格力电器总股本3%、大约市值超过100亿元的流通股份。 当时有说,如果以50%的质押率计算,通过这次倒腾,高瓴获得了大约60亿元的资金。</p><p>不得不说,这次倒腾,高瓴赚了。不仅获得了一笔大约60亿元的资金,而且还大概率节省了不少贷款利息成本。</p><p>2020年初疫情大爆发后,很多商业银行对企业贷款的年利率降到了3.6%左右 ,而在2019 年12月高瓴第一次贷款时, 贷款年利率大概会明显高于3.6%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91f7d36a26f24d07bbce97d975396ab0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>有人按照2019年底时商业银行公允的年贷款利率6%算了一笔账,取200亿整数计算的话:</p><p>200亿*6%*5=60亿的利息支出,自有资金218亿,如果存银行3年,按照3%利息率,大概有218*3%*3=20亿的利息收入。</p><p>因此高瓴第一次入股格力电器的真实成本大概是:418亿+60亿+20亿=500亿 ,而非表面看到的418亿。</p><p>这500亿对应418亿是119%的溢价,由此算出:2019年12月高瓴入股格力电器的真实成本价大概是46.17*119%=55元,远远高于对外公布的46.17元。</p><p>尽管2021年4月的这次贷款倒腾,高瓴占了一点小便宜,然而张磊仍然只是猜中了开头,没能猜中结尾。随着格力电器股价的持续下跌,张磊的噩梦接踵而至。</p><p>先是2021年9月,格力电器发布公告,珠海明骏新增加大约9000万股质押给了中国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601288\">农业银行</a>珠海分行。</p><p>当时,格力电器的股价已经跌到了37-38元一线 ,距离2021年4月28日格力电器股价55元附近已经跌去了 30%以上。</p><p>无路可走,高瓴就只能继续增加股份质押了。</p><p>根据这次公告,截至2021年9月23日,高瓴及其一致行动人董明珠已累计质押格力电器股份825,756,418股。</p><p>而根据2019年12月时的入股协议可知,当时高瓴耗资近418亿元,总共也才获得了格力电器9.02亿股的股份。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11ef12b8cf7a413c87caaf28dbeed662\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>就算加上董明珠,珠海明骏和董明珠合计也只持有格力电器9.46亿股 。由此推测,在2021年9月23日这次新增质押后, 珠海明骏手里可能已经没剩多少股份可供新增质押的了。</p><p>一旦珠海明骏可供质押的股份趋于枯竭,引发连锁反应,这将是一件危险的事情。</p><p>而且,当时有网友算过,以60%的质押率计算,就算珠海明骏把所有持有的9.02亿股格力全都拿来抵押,大概最后可以支持格力电器的股价极限为31.92元 。</p><p>而2022年3月9日盘中,格力电器股价已经一度跌破31.92元, 最低跌到了31.69元 。</p><p>如此推测,对高瓴和珠海明骏而言,新一轮的补充质押,可能已经在路上。张磊和他的高瓴,也许已经在瑟瑟发抖之中。</p><p>从2019年12月至今短短两年多时间,从46.17元到今天的33.34元,再加上巨额的利息成本,高瓴已经巨额浮亏。</p><p>更可怕的是,由于这是一笔高杠杆的投资 (高瓴自有资金只有一半,而且股票质押率最高只有60% ),如今格力电器股价的持续下跌,时间带给张磊的不是玫瑰,也许是需要不断追加补充质押的噩梦。</p><p>除了投资格力的惨败,张磊和他的高瓴在A股、港股、美股对其它所谓赛道股、明星股的投资,现在很多也已经巨额浮亏。</p><p>以下是网友整理的截至2022年3月6日高瓴在A股、港股和美股市场的部分投资盈亏情况:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383af0fcae5c4f81a002e383d442a175\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d46af513c0f94f0aaadbfff6aaf230e3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e65aca0566b144c88a1f654ad4aa0a4e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>由上图可知:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603658\">安图生物</a>,2020年9月以95元买入278万股 , 如今股价跌至44.30元,腰斩有余;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">恒瑞医药</a>,2021年6月以70元买入1800多万股 ,如今股价跌至36.04元,近乎腰斩;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300676\">华大基因</a>,2021年2月, 定增价 145元 买入346万股, 如今76.99元,近乎腰斩;</p><p>只是目前,尚不清楚这些巨额浮亏的投资,高瓴有没有用杠杆,以及杠杆率有多高。如果也像格力电器那样,那么2022年,对张磊这位中国的巴菲特而言,可能将有不祥之兆。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/890dd2dfb205aa8aa1d140672304b3c8","relate_stocks":{"000651":"格力电器"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2219229090","content_text":"除了投资格力的“惨败”,高瓴在A股、港股、美股对其它所谓赛道股、明星股的投资,现在很多也已经巨额浮亏。不管是普通散户还是所谓的机构大佬,在暴跌面前,时间不是玫瑰,而是一把悬在头上的达摩克利斯之剑。今天就说说中国资本市场最著名的机构大佬 —— 高瓴和他最大的一笔投资,入股格力电器的惨事儿。截至3月9日收盘,格力电器股价跌到了33.34元,这与2019年高瓴透过珠海明骏入股格力电器的价格 —— 46.17元已经相去甚远。2019年高瓴入股格力电器15%股权的这笔交易,耗资总额大约418亿元,是高瓴最大的一笔投资,几乎可以说是押上了张磊的身家性命。而这其中,大概有一半资金是高瓴从银行获得的贷款。2019 年 12 月,珠海明骏与招商银行等七家银行签订贷款协议,贷款总额约为 208亿元,融资系用于珠海明骏受让格力集团所持格力电器 15% 的股份。同时珠海明骏将其所持格力电器股票也质押给贷款银行,作为贷款的主要条件之一。2021年4月28日,在格力电器股价位于55元附近的时候,高瓴将这笔贷款做了一次倒腾。借新还旧,再次向3家银行申请贷款208亿元,偿还此前买股权的208亿元贷款,其所持格力的股份随之全部解除质押。那个时候,格力电器股价涨至55元附近,高于其入股格力的成本价46.17元 。因此, 这次只需要质押其持有格力总股本12%的股份,大概7.22亿股就可以拿到208亿元的贷款。这次倒腾之后,高瓴腾出了格力电器总股本3%、大约市值超过100亿元的流通股份。 当时有说,如果以50%的质押率计算,通过这次倒腾,高瓴获得了大约60亿元的资金。不得不说,这次倒腾,高瓴赚了。不仅获得了一笔大约60亿元的资金,而且还大概率节省了不少贷款利息成本。2020年初疫情大爆发后,很多商业银行对企业贷款的年利率降到了3.6%左右 ,而在2019 年12月高瓴第一次贷款时, 贷款年利率大概会明显高于3.6%。有人按照2019年底时商业银行公允的年贷款利率6%算了一笔账,取200亿整数计算的话:200亿*6%*5=60亿的利息支出,自有资金218亿,如果存银行3年,按照3%利息率,大概有218*3%*3=20亿的利息收入。因此高瓴第一次入股格力电器的真实成本大概是:418亿+60亿+20亿=500亿 ,而非表面看到的418亿。这500亿对应418亿是119%的溢价,由此算出:2019年12月高瓴入股格力电器的真实成本价大概是46.17*119%=55元,远远高于对外公布的46.17元。尽管2021年4月的这次贷款倒腾,高瓴占了一点小便宜,然而张磊仍然只是猜中了开头,没能猜中结尾。随着格力电器股价的持续下跌,张磊的噩梦接踵而至。先是2021年9月,格力电器发布公告,珠海明骏新增加大约9000万股质押给了中国农业银行珠海分行。当时,格力电器的股价已经跌到了37-38元一线 ,距离2021年4月28日格力电器股价55元附近已经跌去了 30%以上。无路可走,高瓴就只能继续增加股份质押了。根据这次公告,截至2021年9月23日,高瓴及其一致行动人董明珠已累计质押格力电器股份825,756,418股。而根据2019年12月时的入股协议可知,当时高瓴耗资近418亿元,总共也才获得了格力电器9.02亿股的股份。就算加上董明珠,珠海明骏和董明珠合计也只持有格力电器9.46亿股 。由此推测,在2021年9月23日这次新增质押后, 珠海明骏手里可能已经没剩多少股份可供新增质押的了。一旦珠海明骏可供质押的股份趋于枯竭,引发连锁反应,这将是一件危险的事情。而且,当时有网友算过,以60%的质押率计算,就算珠海明骏把所有持有的9.02亿股格力全都拿来抵押,大概最后可以支持格力电器的股价极限为31.92元 。而2022年3月9日盘中,格力电器股价已经一度跌破31.92元, 最低跌到了31.69元 。如此推测,对高瓴和珠海明骏而言,新一轮的补充质押,可能已经在路上。张磊和他的高瓴,也许已经在瑟瑟发抖之中。从2019年12月至今短短两年多时间,从46.17元到今天的33.34元,再加上巨额的利息成本,高瓴已经巨额浮亏。更可怕的是,由于这是一笔高杠杆的投资 (高瓴自有资金只有一半,而且股票质押率最高只有60% ),如今格力电器股价的持续下跌,时间带给张磊的不是玫瑰,也许是需要不断追加补充质押的噩梦。除了投资格力的惨败,张磊和他的高瓴在A股、港股、美股对其它所谓赛道股、明星股的投资,现在很多也已经巨额浮亏。以下是网友整理的截至2022年3月6日高瓴在A股、港股和美股市场的部分投资盈亏情况:由上图可知:安图生物,2020年9月以95元买入278万股 , 如今股价跌至44.30元,腰斩有余;恒瑞医药,2021年6月以70元买入1800多万股 ,如今股价跌至36.04元,近乎腰斩;华大基因,2021年2月, 定增价 145元 买入346万股, 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