老虎置顶的这些帖子，_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

大大大空头

老虎置顶的这些帖子，真的是反指，包括之前原油又可能再次负数，白银到了抄底的时候… $FUT:WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ $FUT:白银主连(SImain)$

@vision：抄底银行股？小心接飞刀

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

几米one
2020-05-27
几米one
别信这些，就是恶心人的，还故意给你推荐
- 大大大空头回复雪怀观察:
  无脑喷子，那你今年没超过200%？你比无脑还不如哦，那得叫什么呢？
- 大大大空头回复雪怀观察:
  哎呀，今年，因为观察这些你们这些傻子，赚了200%了，你呢？亏多少了，扎心了老铁
- 雪怀观察回复大大大空头:
  哦，这又从反指变马后炮了是吧，你把个马后炮当反指来做不也得亏死？就烦你们这些无脑喷子，社区氛围都被搞坏了
- 大大大空头回复雪怀观察:
  笑死了，两个月前来跟我说抄底我服，涨起来了，各种马后炮
- 雪怀观察回复大大大空头:
  他们置顶是他们的事，而且我记得文章跟抄底半毛钱关系没有，只是探讨是不是到了抄底时候，看好白银，一句话没读看了标题就说恶心，还说反指，不是喷子是啥，有那功夫也来点有营养的帖子，让人给你置顶不也挺好[笑哭]
额哦
2020-05-27
额哦
我也发现这点了
- 大大大空头:
  不知道是蠢还是坏啊
戒赌治疗期的赌徒
2020-05-27
戒赌治疗期的赌徒
也不错
tricky
2020-05-27
tricky
直接拉黑

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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/575ac83a9970332b1f3414abdac1683d\" tg-width=\"225\" tg-height=\"225\">昨天银行股又遭受一波血洗，大大小小的银行股基本上都下跌了，说到原因吗？当然也与巴菲特对银行的消极观点有关，不过更关键的还是跟银行股目前所处的形势息息相关。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/590dfbc835a96902b4180a74fdb571da\" tg-width=\"1394\" tg-height=\"882\"><b>让我们重新回顾一下1季度的财报</b></p> <p>1季度的财报要说亮点，那一定就是净利，如果跟同期相比，主要银行的净利下滑了30%-60%，这个数据真的是差到爆表。可能你会问为啥银行股财报这么差呢？<b>其实这就要说一个词贷款损失拨备</b>，如果我们不算拨备的话，大部分银行的净利润都实现了同比增长。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91817ec55d0905a9eb65781203d599ea\" tg-width=\"1361\" tg-height=\"714\"></p> <p><b>那么你可能好奇到底什么是拨备呢？为啥算上拨备以后，银行净利就缩窄了？</b></p> <p><b>拨备，是对银行贷款损失减值准备的俗称，有时还包括银行的非信贷资产的减值准备。</b>简单讲，就是银行对其发放的贷款（比如100元），在其真的发生不良之前，会预估一个损失率（比如2%），然后在贷款总额上先把这个预估的损失（2元）提取出来，剩下“贷款净额”（98元），然后把这个98元的“贷款净额”计入资产负债表科目。</p> <p>所提取的2元预估损失，会先“存放”着（即拨备余额，即拨备的存量），等着将来发生真实损失时，用来核销。当期预估的2元损失，会在利润表中形成“资产减值损失”，是一种成本费用。</p> <p><b>虽然分析师已经预估到银行股拨备金会提高，但是万万没想到会高到这种程度</b>，具体来看：</p> <p>摩根大通贷款损失减值拨备增加近五倍的影响，净利润同比降三分之二；美国银行贷款损失减值准备同比增加四倍，净利润几乎腰斩；富国银行受营收下降和贷款减值准备增加双重打击，净利同比降近九成。花旗集团营收逆势增长一成，飙升的贷款减值准备使盈利下降近五成。<b>摩根大通，美国银行和富国银行贷款损失拨备更是已经达到了金融危机以来最高水平。</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5e1884f12198e191e6e0f5451f9197\" tg-width=\"1331\" tg-height=\"809\"><b>贷款损失减值拨备为什么这么高？</b></p> <p>本轮创纪录的贷款损失减值拨备，主要是受到疫情引发的连锁反应，投资者担忧疫情本身带来的不确定性以及担心受到疫情影响会出现大批量贷款违约，此外低油价也增加了能源公司违约的可能性。<b>应该说如果后续经济环境好转了，这些担忧解除了，银行股应该会触底反弹，然而从最近的形势来看，银行股的日子变得更难了。</b></p> <p></p> <p><b>银行的日子更难了</b></p> <p><b>低利率缩窄银行的利润空间</b></p> <p>由于过去十年美联储推行宽松的货币政策，全世界迎来低利率时代，而美国长达10年的牛市可以说离不开低利率，低利率意味着企业融资成本降低，对于企业的发展是一个利好，然而，对于银行业来说却恰恰相反。</p> <p><b>银行业务的基石是净利息收入</b>,即其平均贷款利率与平均存款支付利率之差。当基准利率下降,最直接的影响是债券收益率下降，特别是长期债券收益率下降，通常会损害银行股利润率。对于银行来说，当短期存款成本和长期贷款利率之间存在较大差异时，银行股的利润率才往往会扩大。而受到宏观经济下行叠加疫情的影响，美联储已多次宣布降息，目前已是零利率时代，最近更是一度传出可能要出现负利率，可以预见到这会对银行利润带来怎样的伤害。</p> <p><b>失业率攀升影响消费</b></p> <p>在降息预期之下，支撑银行财报超预期的主要还是消费，美国是典型的消费驱动型经济，消费对美国经济的贡献率近80%，而根据美国劳工部的数据，4月26日至5月2日美国首次申领失业救济人数为316.9万，在过去七周内，美国全国失业人数已增至约3300万人。高盛更是预测美国的失业率或从今年4月的14.7%飙升至25%。超过三分之一的美国工人可能失业。</p> <p>失业率的飙升将对以零售业务为主的美国四大银行带来较大的冲击，消费者金融业务的违约率必将上升，同时停工导致企业贷款违约率也将上升。而从最近的形势来看，四大银行受贷款坏账困扰，利润在一季度下滑超过40%的情况仍将持续恶化。</p> <p><b><span>页岩油危机或将开始显现</span></b></p> <p>最后一点是美国页岩油危机或将开始显现，大家买原油股的话，可能会注意到最近1-2个月，美国已经有几家页岩油公司陆续宣布破产保护了，多数华尔街对冲基金认为全球油价只有回升至40美元/桶左右，才能令美国页岩油企业实现盈亏平衡，拥有足够收入支付逾9300亿美元债券本息。</p> <p>其实一直以来，页岩油公司的负债率都是极高的，而且他们发的债券很多都是高息垃圾债，美国大型银行多有涉及这种债券投资。而由于原油低位震荡的背景下，美国页岩油公司高达数千亿美元的债券评级下滑可能对银行盈利造成负面影响。</p> <p>短期来说，银行利润仍存在较大不稳定性，从目前的形势来看，现在抄底银行股，犹如在接一个下落的飞刀，一不小心就头破血流。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$美国银行(BAC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USB\">$美国合众银行(USB)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$摩根大通(JPM)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">$富国银行(WFC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$高盛(GS)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">$摩根士丹利(MS)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">$花旗(C)$</a></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>继割肉航空之后，巴菲特又减持了美国合众银行，银行股是否也会成为下一个航空股？现在抄底银行股好不好？这篇就与大家来探讨一下。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/575ac83a9970332b1f3414abdac1683d\" tg-width=\"225\" tg-height=\"225\">昨天银行股又遭受一波血洗，大大小小的银行股基本上都下跌了，说到原因吗？当然也与巴菲特对银行的消极观点有关，不过更关键的还是跟银行股目前所处的形势息息相关。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/590dfbc835a96902b4180a74fdb571da\" tg-width=\"1394\" tg-height=\"882\"><b>让我们重新回顾一下1季度的财报</b></p> <p>1季度的财报要说亮点，那一定就是净利，如果跟同期相比，主要银行的净利下滑了30%-60%，这个数据真的是差到爆表。可能你会问为啥银行股财报这么差呢？<b>其实这就要说一个词贷款损失拨备</b>，如果我们不算拨备的话，大部分银行的净利润都实现了同比增长。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91817ec55d0905a9eb65781203d599ea\" tg-width=\"1361\" tg-height=\"714\"></p> <p><b>那么你可能好奇到底什么是拨备呢？为啥算上拨备以后，银行净利就缩窄了？</b></p> <p><b>拨备，是对银行贷款损失减值准备的俗称，有时还包括银行的非信贷资产的减值准备。</b>简单讲，就是银行对其发放的贷款（比如100元），在其真的发生不良之前，会预估一个损失率（比如2%），然后在贷款总额上先把这个预估的损失（2元）提取出来，剩下“贷款净额”（98元），然后把这个98元的“贷款净额”计入资产负债表科目。</p> <p>所提取的2元预估损失，会先“存放”着（即拨备余额，即拨备的存量），等着将来发生真实损失时，用来核销。当期预估的2元损失，会在利润表中形成“资产减值损失”，是一种成本费用。</p> <p><b>虽然分析师已经预估到银行股拨备金会提高，但是万万没想到会高到这种程度</b>，具体来看：</p> <p>摩根大通贷款损失减值拨备增加近五倍的影响，净利润同比降三分之二；美国银行贷款损失减值准备同比增加四倍，净利润几乎腰斩；富国银行受营收下降和贷款减值准备增加双重打击，净利同比降近九成。花旗集团营收逆势增长一成，飙升的贷款减值准备使盈利下降近五成。<b>摩根大通，美国银行和富国银行贷款损失拨备更是已经达到了金融危机以来最高水平。</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5e1884f12198e191e6e0f5451f9197\" tg-width=\"1331\" tg-height=\"809\"><b>贷款损失减值拨备为什么这么高？</b></p> <p>本轮创纪录的贷款损失减值拨备，主要是受到疫情引发的连锁反应，投资者担忧疫情本身带来的不确定性以及担心受到疫情影响会出现大批量贷款违约，此外低油价也增加了能源公司违约的可能性。<b>应该说如果后续经济环境好转了，这些担忧解除了，银行股应该会触底反弹，然而从最近的形势来看，银行股的日子变得更难了。</b></p> <p></p> <p><b>银行的日子更难了</b></p> <p><b>低利率缩窄银行的利润空间</b></p> <p>由于过去十年美联储推行宽松的货币政策，全世界迎来低利率时代，而美国长达10年的牛市可以说离不开低利率，低利率意味着企业融资成本降低，对于企业的发展是一个利好，然而，对于银行业来说却恰恰相反。</p> <p><b>银行业务的基石是净利息收入</b>,即其平均贷款利率与平均存款支付利率之差。当基准利率下降,最直接的影响是债券收益率下降，特别是长期债券收益率下降，通常会损害银行股利润率。对于银行来说，当短期存款成本和长期贷款利率之间存在较大差异时，银行股的利润率才往往会扩大。而受到宏观经济下行叠加疫情的影响，美联储已多次宣布降息，目前已是零利率时代，最近更是一度传出可能要出现负利率，可以预见到这会对银行利润带来怎样的伤害。</p> <p><b>失业率攀升影响消费</b></p> <p>在降息预期之下，支撑银行财报超预期的主要还是消费，美国是典型的消费驱动型经济，消费对美国经济的贡献率近80%，而根据美国劳工部的数据，4月26日至5月2日美国首次申领失业救济人数为316.9万，在过去七周内，美国全国失业人数已增至约3300万人。高盛更是预测美国的失业率或从今年4月的14.7%飙升至25%。超过三分之一的美国工人可能失业。</p> <p>失业率的飙升将对以零售业务为主的美国四大银行带来较大的冲击，消费者金融业务的违约率必将上升，同时停工导致企业贷款违约率也将上升。而从最近的形势来看，四大银行受贷款坏账困扰，利润在一季度下滑超过40%的情况仍将持续恶化。</p> <p><b><span>页岩油危机或将开始显现</span></b></p> <p>最后一点是美国页岩油危机或将开始显现，大家买原油股的话，可能会注意到最近1-2个月，美国已经有几家页岩油公司陆续宣布破产保护了，多数华尔街对冲基金认为全球油价只有回升至40美元/桶左右，才能令美国页岩油企业实现盈亏平衡，拥有足够收入支付逾9300亿美元债券本息。</p> <p>其实一直以来，页岩油公司的负债率都是极高的，而且他们发的债券很多都是高息垃圾债，美国大型银行多有涉及这种债券投资。而由于原油低位震荡的背景下，美国页岩油公司高达数千亿美元的债券评级下滑可能对银行盈利造成负面影响。</p> <p>短期来说，银行利润仍存在较大不稳定性，从目前的形势来看，现在抄底银行股，犹如在接一个下落的飞刀，一不小心就头破血流。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$美国银行(BAC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USB\">$美国合众银行(USB)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$摩根大通(JPM)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">$富国银行(WFC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$高盛(GS)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">$摩根士丹利(MS)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">$花旗(C)$</a></p></body></html>","text":"继割肉航空之后，巴菲特又减持了美国合众银行，银行股是否也会成为下一个航空股？现在抄底银行股好不好？这篇就与大家来探讨一下。昨天银行股又遭受一波血洗，大大小小的银行股基本上都下跌了，说到原因吗？当然也与巴菲特对银行的消极观点有关，不过更关键的还是跟银行股目前所处的形势息息相关。让我们重新回顾一下1季度的财报 1季度的财报要说亮点，那一定就是净利，如果跟同期相比，主要银行的净利下滑了30%-60%，这个数据真的是差到爆表。可能你会问为啥银行股财报这么差呢？其实这就要说一个词贷款损失拨备，如果我们不算拨备的话，大部分银行的净利润都实现了同比增长。 那么你可能好奇到底什么是拨备呢？为啥算上拨备以后，银行净利就缩窄了？ 拨备，是对银行贷款损失减值准备的俗称，有时还包括银行的非信贷资产的减值准备。简单讲，就是银行对其发放的贷款（比如100元），在其真的发生不良之前，会预估一个损失率（比如2%），然后在贷款总额上先把这个预估的损失（2元）提取出来，剩下“贷款净额”（98元），然后把这个98元的“贷款净额”计入资产负债表科目。 所提取的2元预估损失，会先“存放”着（即拨备余额，即拨备的存量），等着将来发生真实损失时，用来核销。当期预估的2元损失，会在利润表中形成“资产减值损失”，是一种成本费用。 虽然分析师已经预估到银行股拨备金会提高，但是万万没想到会高到这种程度，具体来看： 摩根大通贷款损失减值拨备增加近五倍的影响，净利润同比降三分之二；美国银行贷款损失减值准备同比增加四倍，净利润几乎腰斩；富国银行受营收下降和贷款减值准备增加双重打击，净利同比降近九成。花旗集团营收逆势增长一成，飙升的贷款减值准备使盈利下降近五成。摩根大通，美国银行和富国银行贷款损失拨备更是已经达到了金融危机以来最高水平。贷款损失减值拨备为什么这么高？ 本轮创纪录的贷款损失减值拨备，主要是受到疫情引发的连锁反应，投资者担忧疫情本身带来的不确定性以及担心受到疫情影响会出现大批量贷款违约，此外低油价也增加了能源公司违约的可能性。应该说如果后续经济环境好转了，这些担忧解除了，银行股应该会触底反弹，然而从最近的形势来看，银行股的日子变得更难了。 银行的日子更难了 低利率缩窄银行的利润空间 由于过去十年美联储推行宽松的货币政策，全世界迎来低利率时代，而美国长达10年的牛市可以说离不开低利率，低利率意味着企业融资成本降低，对于企业的发展是一个利好，然而，对于银行业来说却恰恰相反。 银行业务的基石是净利息收入,即其平均贷款利率与平均存款支付利率之差。当基准利率下降,最直接的影响是债券收益率下降，特别是长期债券收益率下降，通常会损害银行股利润率。对于银行来说，当短期存款成本和长期贷款利率之间存在较大差异时，银行股的利润率才往往会扩大。而受到宏观经济下行叠加疫情的影响，美联储已多次宣布降息，目前已是零利率时代，最近更是一度传出可能要出现负利率，可以预见到这会对银行利润带来怎样的伤害。 失业率攀升影响消费 在降息预期之下，支撑银行财报超预期的主要还是消费，美国是典型的消费驱动型经济，消费对美国经济的贡献率近80%，而根据美国劳工部的数据，4月26日至5月2日美国首次申领失业救济人数为316.9万，在过去七周内，美国全国失业人数已增至约3300万人。高盛更是预测美国的失业率或从今年4月的14.7%飙升至25%。超过三分之一的美国工人可能失业。 失业率的飙升将对以零售业务为主的美国四大银行带来较大的冲击，消费者金融业务的违约率必将上升，同时停工导致企业贷款违约率也将上升。而从最近的形势来看，四大银行受贷款坏账困扰，利润在一季度下滑超过40%的情况仍将持续恶化。 页岩油危机或将开始显现 最后一点是美国页岩油危机或将开始显现，大家买原油股的话，可能会注意到最近1-2个月，美国已经有几家页岩油公司陆续宣布破产保护了，多数华尔街对冲基金认为全球油价只有回升至40美元/桶左右，才能令美国页岩油企业实现盈亏平衡，拥有足够收入支付逾9300亿美元债券本息。 其实一直以来，页岩油公司的负债率都是极高的，而且他们发的债券很多都是高息垃圾债，美国大型银行多有涉及这种债券投资。而由于原油低位震荡的背景下，美国页岩油公司高达数千亿美元的债券评级下滑可能对银行盈利造成负面影响。 短期来说，银行利润仍存在较大不稳定性，从目前的形势来看，现在抄底银行股，犹如在接一个下落的飞刀，一不小心就头破血流。$美国银行(BAC)$ $美国合众银行(USB)$ $摩根大通(JPM)$ $富国银行(WFC)$ $高盛(GS)$ $摩根士丹利(MS)$ 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