$蔚来(NIO)$ _老虎社区_美港股上老虎

做一个粗略而简单的测算，假设蔚来年销量突破10万，收入达800亿rmb，净利率达到 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 最近一个Q的1%，给100倍PE，市值就是800亿rmb，大概114亿美金，低于但接近目前的市值。关键的就是你认为蔚来几年内能达到10万销量，2019年2万，2020Q1将近4k，而特斯拉2019整体销量已经36万，理想ONE从2019推出至今销量1万+，宝马X3的2019销量12万+。

个人的认为蔚来和 $理想汽车(LI)$ 的销量攀升，超预期是大概率事件，很可能远超想象，只有规模上来才可能单用户降低服务成本，很可能也就2-3年，就能达到。

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

美股零零七
2020-07-16
美股零零七
请帮忙做个简单估算，NKLA市值200亿美金，但是一辆车都没有，按你的模型，那么该值多少钱？
- 涛涛涛:
  梦想有多大就值多少钱
我的番茄
2020-07-16
我的番茄
大哥，理想one是增程式，蔚来是纯电动，这俩都不是一种车
- 美股零零七回复你的名字_2414:
  因为你智商理解不了
- 你的名字_2414回复美股零零七:
  你是那个工地的这么能抬杠
- 1000斤顶回复美股零零七:
  这个没关系我们讨论的是混动和增程的区别路上不停加油就相当于一直都有个发电机给电池充电实现了长续航
- 美股零零七回复1000斤顶:
  手机的充电宝随时可以取下来，理想的油箱可以取下来吗？
- 1000斤顶回复美股零零七:
  相当于给电车背了个充电宝这样理解最合适
甜甜的芝麻汤圆
2020-07-16
甜甜的芝麻汤圆
年销售10万辆车，按照单车售价30万，销售额300亿，如果开始盈利，利润率按照5%计算，就是15亿盈利，PE按照100倍，市值为1500亿人民币。今年销量3.5万，明年6万，后年8-10万
- 甜甜的芝麻汤圆:
  今年销量应该4万以上
仓又加倍
2020-07-18
仓又加倍
特斯拉不大跌，nio就没问题，你按照特斯拉中国业务的占比估算nio未来的盘子就可以了
Buythedip999
2020-07-16
Buythedip999
现在市场不在乎基本面的，都是散户在炒，短线赚一波就跑吧
顺盈
2020-07-18
顺盈
持有特斯拉是对的，持有蔚来就是赌，有人说腾讯等等，腾讯亏1000万，对于他而言，就是毛毛雨，蔚来如果退市，你赌的起？

发表看法

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