跌跌撞撞不放弃
2021-11-16
呜?太好了。今年明显没有去年强,明年看一看怎么样
@价值投资为王:
提价、货币宽松,2022年食品饮料有望迎来戴维斯双击!
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class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c11a21d5385489574a298589bf18e698\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"436\"></p><p>PET价格的变化对农夫山泉盈利能力有极大影响,主要是该原材料在成本构成中占比最高,根据彭博分析师的测算,按2020年PET均价计算,PET成本占收入的10%和销售成本的25%。</p><p>2017-2019年间,PET的价格更高,占成本比重更大,甚至占到了收入的13-15%,销售成本的29-32%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3848780e996304e72f3d229e831a76\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"292\"></p><p>由此预测,彭博分析师认为农夫山泉或将考虑提高售价,以抑制原材料成本上涨带给利润率上的压力。</p><p>从估值上看,农夫山泉在经历股价大涨之后,PE估值大幅回落,目前估值为66PE。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7d3958062f0426fc10d39fcfe1083e7\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"183\"></p><p>如果提价,将大幅改善盈利能力,叠加当前国内经济疲弱,市场预期2022年将放松货币政策,如此,农夫山泉有望迎来戴维斯双击!</p><p>从技术面上看,农夫山泉K线在底部震荡7个月,屡次回踩36.35元而不破,而今日股价大涨7%,突破横盘震荡区间,后市如果有回踩,有望是入场时机:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2aa46163a25ce5d4799a040982b7b0a\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"231\"></p><p>农夫山泉的情况的并不是个例,乳业巨头蒙牛也有望迎来戴维斯双击。</p><p>根据广发证券测算,随着生鲜乳价格进入上行周期,原材料成本提升有望促使龙头提价并减少促销活动,进而带来盈利能力提升。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcace763e6ad112d7fbb218531827839\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"501\"></p><p>调味品方面,颐海国际2021年股价暴跌,主要受需求不振和成本上升及竞争加剧影响,而据市场调研,当前复合调味品竞争有所放缓,预计冬季旺季过后,部分小品牌将退出竞争,格局改善,加上渠道端去库存,2022年仍然值得期待。</p><p>从技术面看,颐海国际底部特征明显,颇具圆弧底形态,有望迎来反转:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c371a96fc62e15f4a48b6ad2c701aa2\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"225\"></p><p>最后附上相关阅读:</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/327336694\" target=\"_blank\"><span>大胆预言,核心资产大底初现!</span></a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/153295095\" target=\"_blank\"><span>颐海国际:即将反转的白马股!</span></a></p><p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">$农夫山泉(09633)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01579\">$颐海国际(01579)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02319\">$蒙牛乳业(02319)$</a> </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>悄然之间,农夫山泉已经走出底部,近日连续反弹近30%!</p><p>从消息面上看,推动农夫山泉股价大涨的原因有两个:</p><p>一个是11月19日盘后,恒生指数将公布第三季度检讨结果,成份股有望迎来调整,而根据几家头部券商预测,农夫山泉成为潜在候选者。</p><p>另外一个是食品饮料迎来涨价潮。</p><p>打出涨价第一枪的是酱油王者海天味业,此后,洽洽食品、安井、涪陵榨菜接连提价,引发市场预期。</p><p>此轮食品饮料涨价,主要来自成本端压力,以农夫山泉为例,制造塑料瓶的原材料聚对苯二甲酸乙二醇酯(PET)成本骤升,目前价格7950元/吨,较2020年年底的5533元上涨了44%!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c11a21d5385489574a298589bf18e698\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"436\"></p><p>PET价格的变化对农夫山泉盈利能力有极大影响,主要是该原材料在成本构成中占比最高,根据彭博分析师的测算,按2020年PET均价计算,PET成本占收入的10%和销售成本的25%。</p><p>2017-2019年间,PET的价格更高,占成本比重更大,甚至占到了收入的13-15%,销售成本的29-32%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3848780e996304e72f3d229e831a76\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"292\"></p><p>由此预测,彭博分析师认为农夫山泉或将考虑提高售价,以抑制原材料成本上涨带给利润率上的压力。</p><p>从估值上看,农夫山泉在经历股价大涨之后,PE估值大幅回落,目前估值为66PE。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7d3958062f0426fc10d39fcfe1083e7\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"183\"></p><p>如果提价,将大幅改善盈利能力,叠加当前国内经济疲弱,市场预期2022年将放松货币政策,如此,农夫山泉有望迎来戴维斯双击!</p><p>从技术面上看,农夫山泉K线在底部震荡7个月,屡次回踩36.35元而不破,而今日股价大涨7%,突破横盘震荡区间,后市如果有回踩,有望是入场时机:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2aa46163a25ce5d4799a040982b7b0a\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"231\"></p><p>农夫山泉的情况的并不是个例,乳业巨头蒙牛也有望迎来戴维斯双击。</p><p>根据广发证券测算,随着生鲜乳价格进入上行周期,原材料成本提升有望促使龙头提价并减少促销活动,进而带来盈利能力提升。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcace763e6ad112d7fbb218531827839\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"501\"></p><p>调味品方面,颐海国际2021年股价暴跌,主要受需求不振和成本上升及竞争加剧影响,而据市场调研,当前复合调味品竞争有所放缓,预计冬季旺季过后,部分小品牌将退出竞争,格局改善,加上渠道端去库存,2022年仍然值得期待。</p><p>从技术面看,颐海国际底部特征明显,颇具圆弧底形态,有望迎来反转:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c371a96fc62e15f4a48b6ad2c701aa2\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"225\"></p><p>最后附上相关阅读:</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/327336694\" target=\"_blank\"><span>大胆预言,核心资产大底初现!</span></a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/153295095\" target=\"_blank\"><span>颐海国际:即将反转的白马股!</span></a></p><p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">$农夫山泉(09633)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01579\">$颐海国际(01579)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02319\">$蒙牛乳业(02319)$</a> </p></body></html>","text":"悄然之间,农夫山泉已经走出底部,近日连续反弹近30%! 从消息面上看,推动农夫山泉股价大涨的原因有两个: 一个是11月19日盘后,恒生指数将公布第三季度检讨结果,成份股有望迎来调整,而根据几家头部券商预测,农夫山泉成为潜在候选者。 另外一个是食品饮料迎来涨价潮。 打出涨价第一枪的是酱油王者海天味业,此后,洽洽食品、安井、涪陵榨菜接连提价,引发市场预期。 此轮食品饮料涨价,主要来自成本端压力,以农夫山泉为例,制造塑料瓶的原材料聚对苯二甲酸乙二醇酯(PET)成本骤升,目前价格7950元/吨,较2020年年底的5533元上涨了44%! PET价格的变化对农夫山泉盈利能力有极大影响,主要是该原材料在成本构成中占比最高,根据彭博分析师的测算,按2020年PET均价计算,PET成本占收入的10%和销售成本的25%。 2017-2019年间,PET的价格更高,占成本比重更大,甚至占到了收入的13-15%,销售成本的29-32%。 由此预测,彭博分析师认为农夫山泉或将考虑提高售价,以抑制原材料成本上涨带给利润率上的压力。 从估值上看,农夫山泉在经历股价大涨之后,PE估值大幅回落,目前估值为66PE。 如果提价,将大幅改善盈利能力,叠加当前国内经济疲弱,市场预期2022年将放松货币政策,如此,农夫山泉有望迎来戴维斯双击! 从技术面上看,农夫山泉K线在底部震荡7个月,屡次回踩36.35元而不破,而今日股价大涨7%,突破横盘震荡区间,后市如果有回踩,有望是入场时机: 农夫山泉的情况的并不是个例,乳业巨头蒙牛也有望迎来戴维斯双击。 根据广发证券测算,随着生鲜乳价格进入上行周期,原材料成本提升有望促使龙头提价并减少促销活动,进而带来盈利能力提升。 调味品方面,颐海国际2021年股价暴跌,主要受需求不振和成本上升及竞争加剧影响,而据市场调研,当前复合调味品竞争有所放缓,预计冬季旺季过后,部分小品牌将退出竞争,格局改善,加上渠道端去库存,2022年仍然值得期待。 从技术面看,颐海国际底部特征明显,颇具圆弧底形态,有望迎来反转: 最后附上相关阅读: 大胆预言,核心资产大底初现! 颐海国际:即将反转的白马股! $农夫山泉(09633)$ $颐海国际(01579)$ $蒙牛乳业(02319)$","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871818133","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["01579","02319","09633"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1645,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":45,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/871887265"}
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