金蝉Catherine
2023-02-28
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@期权小班长:
市场大跌,机构站队,意想不到的期权策略!
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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Timiraos在推特上爆料,暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。</p><blockquote>“克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计,(美联储货币政策委员会)FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。”</blockquote><blockquote>“要实现”2.1%的通胀预期,“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。</blockquote><p>面对意外带来的下跌,机构势必会有所动作,不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> 的sell put:</p><p>昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌,拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战,高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感,所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。</p><p>跌加近期中概股颓势,另外美元反弹趋势,似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。</p><p>但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“,开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put,行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元,期权总成交额166万美元。</p><ul><li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT\">$PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT\">$PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$ </a></li></ul><p>这行权价,这到期日,信息量是不是很大?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daac12ea4875aa0fabfa5b0c54e78f6b\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">信息量更大的是,盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020230421%20100.0%20PUT\">$PDD%2020230421%20100.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20230421 100.0 PUT\">$PDD 20230421 100.0 PUT$ </a></p><p>这是张 long put 平仓单,交易者去年12月29日买入想做空PDD,但昨天平仓了:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae19d04ec35bf196b2574c9b9312e011\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">结合上面两张大单可以得出非常难以置信的两点结论:</p><ol><li>6月16日以85买入拼多多是划算的</li><li>这笔资金继续持有4月21日到期行权价为100的put做空拼多多不划算</li></ol><p>先说第二点结论,因为这和我昨天文章的标题不谋而合。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020230421%20100.0%20PUT\">$PDD%2020230421%20100.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20230421 100.0 PUT\">$PDD 20230421 100.0 PUT$ </a>这张大单的平仓价格是18,也就是说拼多多需要在4月21日之前跌到100-18=82,跌到82这张大单才会盈利。但去年12月底拼多多股价最低是80,显然和其他股票相比回调空间不大。所以大单选择在破位的时直接平仓。</p><p>那么推倒到第一点,机构有足够把握拼多多经历回调后能在6月16日之前反弹。</p><p>我觉得对于散户的最大启发是,低于80的拼多多sell put都有利可图。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> 双卖模式</p><p>600万以上趋势向大单不是很常见,昨天我见到了两组,一组是拼多多,另一组就是亚马逊:</p><ul><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020230331%2092.0%20PUT\">$AMZN%2020230331%2092.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN 20230331 92.0 PUT\">$AMZN 20230331 92.0 PUT$ </a> </li><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020230331%2097.0%20CALL\">$AMZN%2020230331%2097.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN 20230331 97.0 CALL\">$AMZN 20230331 97.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46105b56e488c399a77ea726aaff0e9\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">到期日3月31日,如果亚马逊股价介于92~97之间,那么这家机构可以直接收获2170万权利金。</p><p>这是我看到目前为止行权价设置最大胆的机构。从3月6号开始到3月底,每一周,不是非农就是CPI要不就是FOMC,每一周都是血雨腥风,亚马逊为什么能如此风平浪静的横在一个狭窄区间呢?</p><p>理由也很简单,就是亚马逊目前很便宜。从去年10月开始算,应该是FANNG股票里反弹幅度最低的股票,没怎么涨自然也不需要回调。</p><p>对于这张大单我保持敬畏之心,跟奈飞那对一样的敬畏之心,可以当作参考目标价看看,sell put还是建议80。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a> 回归正常价差大单水平:</p><ul><li>买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BA%2020230421%20190.0%20PUT\">$BA%2020230421%20190.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BA 20230421 190.0 PUT\">$BA 20230421 190.0 PUT$ </a> </li><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BA%2020230421%20235.0%20CALL\">$BA%2020230421%20235.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BA 20230421 235.0 CALL\">$BA 20230421 235.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p>参考性很强,sell call & buy put组合,正常看跌。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/337084d803a04fe419e5712ae2698efe\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 日历看空策略:</p><ul><li>买 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020230616%20205.0%20PUT\">$NVDA%2020230616%20205.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20230616 205.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20230616 205.0 PUT$ </a> </li><li>卖 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020230317%20205.0%20PUT\">$NVDA%2020230317%20205.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20230317 205.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20230317 205.0 PUT$ </a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e96eea80c86460475a4d051fae12db\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/W\">$Wayfair(W)$</a> 大单做空的贼多,不知道是财报不好还是回调。</p><ul><li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/W%2020230616%2045.0%20PUT\">$W%2020230616%2045.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/W 20230616 45.0 PUT\">$W 20230616 45.0 PUT$ </a></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17db3608d152d5e19c4fcfe935ff312c\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p>苹果和特斯拉期权昨天也看了,还是平仓单比较多,没看到新开的put大单。其实特斯拉应该不用我分享,我写出来就滞后了,盘中直接看异动榜就行了。特斯拉put大单很喜欢买到期日为下周或者下下周的近期期权,成交额50万以上或者100万以上,一般当天或者第二天就会瀑布式下跌。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>不知道你们年初听没听过一种说法是,美股今年就算跌也不会跌太多,大约10%的震荡幅度。先开始我对这句话半信半疑,不过看了两个月的期权异动后感觉传闻不是空穴来风,从策略来看机构操作确实很保守,哪怕是昨晚大跌后。</p><p>昨晚大跌原因,市场传闻是资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在推特上爆料,暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。</p><blockquote>“克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计,(美联储货币政策委员会)FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。”</blockquote><blockquote>“要实现”2.1%的通胀预期,“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。</blockquote><p>面对意外带来的下跌,机构势必会有所动作,不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> 的sell put:</p><p>昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌,拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战,高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感,所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。</p><p>跌加近期中概股颓势,另外美元反弹趋势,似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。</p><p>但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“,开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put,行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元,期权总成交额166万美元。</p><ul><li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT\">$PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT\">$PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$ </a></li></ul><p>这行权价,这到期日,信息量是不是很大?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daac12ea4875aa0fabfa5b0c54e78f6b\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">信息量更大的是,盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020230421%20100.0%20PUT\">$PDD%2020230421%20100.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20230421 100.0 PUT\">$PDD 20230421 100.0 PUT$ </a></p><p>这是张 long put 平仓单,交易者去年12月29日买入想做空PDD,但昨天平仓了:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae19d04ec35bf196b2574c9b9312e011\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">结合上面两张大单可以得出非常难以置信的两点结论:</p><ol><li>6月16日以85买入拼多多是划算的</li><li>这笔资金继续持有4月21日到期行权价为100的put做空拼多多不划算</li></ol><p>先说第二点结论,因为这和我昨天文章的标题不谋而合。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020230421%20100.0%20PUT\">$PDD%2020230421%20100.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20230421 100.0 PUT\">$PDD 20230421 100.0 PUT$ </a>这张大单的平仓价格是18,也就是说拼多多需要在4月21日之前跌到100-18=82,跌到82这张大单才会盈利。但去年12月底拼多多股价最低是80,显然和其他股票相比回调空间不大。所以大单选择在破位的时直接平仓。</p><p>那么推倒到第一点,机构有足够把握拼多多经历回调后能在6月16日之前反弹。</p><p>我觉得对于散户的最大启发是,低于80的拼多多sell put都有利可图。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> 双卖模式</p><p>600万以上趋势向大单不是很常见,昨天我见到了两组,一组是拼多多,另一组就是亚马逊:</p><ul><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020230331%2092.0%20PUT\">$AMZN%2020230331%2092.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN 20230331 92.0 PUT\">$AMZN 20230331 92.0 PUT$ </a> </li><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020230331%2097.0%20CALL\">$AMZN%2020230331%2097.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN 20230331 97.0 CALL\">$AMZN 20230331 97.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46105b56e488c399a77ea726aaff0e9\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">到期日3月31日,如果亚马逊股价介于92~97之间,那么这家机构可以直接收获2170万权利金。</p><p>这是我看到目前为止行权价设置最大胆的机构。从3月6号开始到3月底,每一周,不是非农就是CPI要不就是FOMC,每一周都是血雨腥风,亚马逊为什么能如此风平浪静的横在一个狭窄区间呢?</p><p>理由也很简单,就是亚马逊目前很便宜。从去年10月开始算,应该是FANNG股票里反弹幅度最低的股票,没怎么涨自然也不需要回调。</p><p>对于这张大单我保持敬畏之心,跟奈飞那对一样的敬畏之心,可以当作参考目标价看看,sell put还是建议80。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a> 回归正常价差大单水平:</p><ul><li>买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BA%2020230421%20190.0%20PUT\">$BA%2020230421%20190.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BA 20230421 190.0 PUT\">$BA 20230421 190.0 PUT$ </a> </li><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BA%2020230421%20235.0%20CALL\">$BA%2020230421%20235.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BA 20230421 235.0 CALL\">$BA 20230421 235.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p>参考性很强,sell call & buy put组合,正常看跌。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/337084d803a04fe419e5712ae2698efe\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 日历看空策略:</p><ul><li>买 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020230616%20205.0%20PUT\">$NVDA%2020230616%20205.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20230616 205.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20230616 205.0 PUT$ </a> </li><li>卖 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020230317%20205.0%20PUT\">$NVDA%2020230317%20205.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20230317 205.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20230317 205.0 PUT$ </a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e96eea80c86460475a4d051fae12db\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/W\">$Wayfair(W)$</a> 大单做空的贼多,不知道是财报不好还是回调。</p><ul><li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/W%2020230616%2045.0%20PUT\">$W%2020230616%2045.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/W 20230616 45.0 PUT\">$W 20230616 45.0 PUT$ </a></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17db3608d152d5e19c4fcfe935ff312c\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p>苹果和特斯拉期权昨天也看了,还是平仓单比较多,没看到新开的put大单。其实特斯拉应该不用我分享,我写出来就滞后了,盘中直接看异动榜就行了。特斯拉put大单很喜欢买到期日为下周或者下下周的近期期权,成交额50万以上或者100万以上,一般当天或者第二天就会瀑布式下跌。</p></body></html>","text":"不知道你们年初听没听过一种说法是,美股今年就算跌也不会跌太多,大约10%的震荡幅度。先开始我对这句话半信半疑,不过看了两个月的期权异动后感觉传闻不是空穴来风,从策略来看机构操作确实很保守,哪怕是昨晚大跌后。 昨晚大跌原因,市场传闻是资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在推特上爆料,暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。 “克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计,(美联储货币政策委员会)FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。” “要实现”2.1%的通胀预期,“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。 面对意外带来的下跌,机构势必会有所动作,不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料 $拼多多(PDD)$ 的sell put: 昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌,拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战,高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感,所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。 跌加近期中概股颓势,另外美元反弹趋势,似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。 但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“,开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put,行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元,期权总成交额166万美元。 $PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ $PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$ 这行权价,这到期日,信息量是不是很大?信息量更大的是,盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单: $PDD%2020230421%20100.0%20PUT$ $PDD 20230421 100.0 PUT$ 这是张 long put 平仓单,交易者去年12月29日买入想做空PDD,但昨天平仓了:结合上面两张大单可以得出非常难以置信的两点结论: 6月16日以85买入拼多多是划算的 这笔资金继续持有4月21日到期行权价为100的put做空拼多多不划算 先说第二点结论,因为这和我昨天文章的标题不谋而合。$PDD%2020230421%20100.0%20PUT$ $PDD 20230421 100.0 PUT$ 这张大单的平仓价格是18,也就是说拼多多需要在4月21日之前跌到100-18=82,跌到82这张大单才会盈利。但去年12月底拼多多股价最低是80,显然和其他股票相比回调空间不大。所以大单选择在破位的时直接平仓。 那么推倒到第一点,机构有足够把握拼多多经历回调后能在6月16日之前反弹。 我觉得对于散户的最大启发是,低于80的拼多多sell put都有利可图。 $亚马逊(AMZN)$ 双卖模式 600万以上趋势向大单不是很常见,昨天我见到了两组,一组是拼多多,另一组就是亚马逊: 卖$AMZN%2020230331%2092.0%20PUT$ $AMZN 20230331 92.0 PUT$ 卖$AMZN%2020230331%2097.0%20CALL$ $AMZN 20230331 97.0 CALL$ 到期日3月31日,如果亚马逊股价介于92~97之间,那么这家机构可以直接收获2170万权利金。 这是我看到目前为止行权价设置最大胆的机构。从3月6号开始到3月底,每一周,不是非农就是CPI要不就是FOMC,每一周都是血雨腥风,亚马逊为什么能如此风平浪静的横在一个狭窄区间呢? 理由也很简单,就是亚马逊目前很便宜。从去年10月开始算,应该是FANNG股票里反弹幅度最低的股票,没怎么涨自然也不需要回调。 对于这张大单我保持敬畏之心,跟奈飞那对一样的敬畏之心,可以当作参考目标价看看,sell put还是建议80。 $波音(BA)$ 回归正常价差大单水平: 买$BA%2020230421%20190.0%20PUT$ $BA 20230421 190.0 PUT$ 卖$BA%2020230421%20235.0%20CALL$ $BA 20230421 235.0 CALL$ 参考性很强,sell call & buy put组合,正常看跌。 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 日历看空策略: 买 $NVDA%2020230616%20205.0%20PUT$ $NVDA 20230616 205.0 PUT$ 卖 $NVDA%2020230317%20205.0%20PUT$ $NVDA 20230317 205.0 PUT$ $Wayfair(W)$ 大单做空的贼多,不知道是财报不好还是回调。 $W%2020230616%2045.0%20PUT$ $W 20230616 45.0 PUT$ 苹果和特斯拉期权昨天也看了,还是平仓单比较多,没看到新开的put大单。其实特斯拉应该不用我分享,我写出来就滞后了,盘中直接看异动榜就行了。特斯拉put大单很喜欢买到期日为下周或者下下周的近期期权,成交额50万以上或者100万以上,一般当天或者第二天就会瀑布式下跌。","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624384760","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT","AMZN","NVDA%2020230317%20205.0%20PUT","W%2020230616%2045.0%20PUT","NVDA%2020230616%20205.0%20PUT","PDD","AMZN%2020230331%2092.0%20PUT","W","AMZN%2020230331%2097.0%20CALL","BA%2020230421%20190.0%20PUT","BA%2020230421%20235.0%20CALL","PDD%2020230421%20100.0%20PUT","BA"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2988,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":732,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/624579920"}
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