捷克Jack
11-21 08:54
盘后的结果是没一个猜对，看后两天盘中怎么走了
@期权小班长：
英伟达Q3财报期权大单合集
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data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a></p><p>周三盘后英伟达即将公布Q3财报，根据彭博分析师预期，英伟达三季度营收为331.25亿美元，调整后净利润为184.93亿美元，调整后EPS为0.739美元。</p><p>周三盘后能否大涨取决于营收能否继续超20亿，以及下季度营收展望能否再超预期。</p><p>根据期权未平仓数据，大单押注偏向使用看涨期权，150或为本次财报突破分水岭。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e55ea0a0ed9961b4ca9a8890ab5b996\" tg-width=\"782\" tg-height=\"868\"></p><p>受股价回调影响，财报大单都比较保守。下面整理这几天期权大单，方便大家参考。</p><p>可能有人想选一种策略是亏的少，赚的多，还能覆盖更多方向。我看过了，没有，条件只能三选二。</p><h4 id=\"id_4183207552\">一号选手：重仓看涨</h4><p>买入12月20日到期180call，卖出12月20日到期190call：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>买<a title=\"$NVDA 20241220 180.0 CALL$ \" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241220 180.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 180.0 CALL$ </a></p></li><li><p>卖<a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241220 190.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241220%20190.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 190.0 CALL$</a></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d600af1986a49c077ef8b232a20112c3\" tg-width=\"2420\" tg-height=\"782\"></p><p>有多重仓呢，从10月17日起开始买入180/190看涨价差组合，约开仓十几万手。减去190对冲，实际成本大约是180call价格的三分之一，粗略估算需要花费大约1000多万。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bcf7b2862e153174304b8c2ae3cb9da\" tg-width=\"1968\" tg-height=\"1436\"></p><p>因为190对冲了波动率跟时间价值，所以这单不需要涨到180就可以赚钱，理论上需要股价达到8%以上涨幅，高开160以上。</p><h4 id=\"id_2401804099\">二号选手：低于150</h4><p>二号选手是每周备兑roll仓的机构，他们认为英伟达本周股价在150以下，对冲区间是150～162.5：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241122 150.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20150.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241122 150.0 CALL$</a>，成交量7.83万</p></li><li><p>买<a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241122 162.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20162.5%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241122 162.5 CALL$</a>，成交量7.83万</p></li></ul><p>朋友问我为什么开仓162.5而不是160。我看了一下未平仓数据，160未平仓7.2万手，万一财报大涨，160爆仓概率更大。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7002d0f936c1237cf873c67a1a02f9\" tg-width=\"2420\" tg-height=\"254\"></p><h4 id=\"id_113161450\">三号选手：140～150</h4><p>三号选手选择悄悄开仓，看涨140以上150以下，周二收盘股价达到147，不确定今晚会不会平仓：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241220 140.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241220%20140.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 140.0 CALL$</a> ，成交2万手</p></li></ul><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241220 150.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241220%20150.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 150.0 CALL$</a> ，成交2万手</p></li></ul><p>140跟150也是未平仓数据名列前茅的两个行权价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9555aa3150db9ba9ab4f0355d8265ed\" tg-width=\"2038\" tg-height=\"1442\"></p><h4 id=\"id_985109280\">四号选手：不花钱看涨155</h4><p>做多155同时sell put130对冲看涨成本：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241206 130.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241206%20130.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20241206 130.0 PUT$</a> ，成交量5000手</p></li><li><p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241206 155.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241206%20155.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241206 155.0 CALL$</a> ，成交量5000手</p></li></ul><p>这单妙在sell put刚好抵消buy call成本，如果英伟达涨超155大赚，没涨到155不亏，没跌破130也不亏，跌破130需要接盘。</p><p>精准1:1对冲成本的策略说明交易者信心不足。</p><h4 id=\"id_2639832770\">五号选手：看涨155以上</h4><p>远期做多155，卖120put以及175call对冲看涨成本：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250321 120.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250321%20120.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20250321 120.0 PUT$</a></p></li><li><p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250321 155.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250321%20155.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250321 155.0 CALL$</a></p></li><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250321 175.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250321%20175.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250321 175.0 CALL$</a></p></li></ul><p>比上一位的交易策略更完善，但如果是我175call会选择更近的到期日。</p><h4 id=\"id_1103601459\">六号选手：跨式偏向看跌135以下125以上</h4><p>做多波动率买入跨式，但看跌为主，股价大概率跌到135以下125以上：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241122 125.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20125.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20241122 125.0 PUT$</a></p></li><li><p>买 <a title=\"$NVDA 20241122 135.0 PUT$ \" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241122 135.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20241122 135.0 PUT$ </a></p></li><li><p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241122 155.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20155.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241122 155.0 CALL$</a></p></li></ul><p>本周到期期权策略中，平价期权价值最高，权重会更高一级，所以综合评价此策略偏向看跌。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae94d0851b35ea5b506ec4c6f24602b\" tg-width=\"2420\" tg-height=\"200\"></p><h4 id=\"id_988745957\">七号选手：跨式看涨150以上</h4><p>第四位交易者，看涨股价到150以上，同时预防意外暴跌：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖 <a title=\"$NVDA 20241122 105.0 PUT$ \" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241122 105.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20241122 105.0 PUT$ </a></p></li><li><p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241122 125.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20125.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20241122 125.0 PUT$</a></p></li><li><p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241220 150.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241220%20150.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 150.0 CALL$</a></p></li><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250117 180.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250117%20180.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250117 180.0 CALL$</a></p></li></ul><p>看跌期权到期日都是本周到期，行权价选择价外，说明交易者认为暴跌是小概率事件，策略还是偏向看涨。</p><h4 id=\"id_2431586450\">八号选手：跨式策略160以上124以下</h4><p>真正的赌命选手，到期日选择本周，小技巧call行权价选择价内，put行权价选择价外，小涨小跌能保住一条腿，另一条腿亏完，只有暴涨暴跌才能赚：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241122 140.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20140.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241122 140.0 CALL$</a></p></li><li><p><a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241122 142.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20142.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20241122 142.0 PUT$</a> x2</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47ee2f0e344b5067d27e832c9a7813d9\" tg-width=\"2412\" tg-height=\"142\"></p><p>顺带一提，110sell put<a title=\"$NVDA 20241220 110.0 PUT$ \" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241220 110.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20241220 110.0 PUT$ </a>选手提前平仓，不参与财报。</p><h4 id=\"id_158603541\">roll仓选手：</h4><p>这次财报前有很多看涨大单roll仓，说明并不是强烈看好这次财报，所以roll仓延缓时间衰减。这种拿不准的态度也是一种信号。</p><p>不过大单统一倾向长期看涨160。</p><p>第一组场内交易，平仓165-216call，开仓160-190call：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>平仓 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250321 215.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250321%20215.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250321 215.0 CALL$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250321 165.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250321%20165.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250321 165.0 CALL$</a></p></li><li><p>开仓 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250117 160.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250117%20160.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250117 160.0 CALL$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241220 190.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241220%20190.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 190.0 CALL$</a></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ea50eed29845ed0074c5d8801730ccb\" tg-width=\"2418\" tg-height=\"258\"></p><p>第二组：看涨160</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>平仓 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250321 134.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250321%20134.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250321 134.0 CALL$</a></p></li></ul><ul style=\"\"><li><p>roll开仓 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251219 168.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251219%20168.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20251219 168.0 CALL$</a></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf23f101834d5538e42fd0fb1562e6a\" tg-width=\"2420\" tg-height=\"150\"></p><p>第三组：看涨170：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>平仓 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241220 160.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241220%20160.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 160.0 CALL$</a></p></li><li><p>roll买入 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250117 170.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250117%20170.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250117 170.0 CALL$</a></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5517650468cba1cd767b533bf5b982c6\" tg-width=\"2422\" tg-height=\"166\"></p><p>评价比较负面：2亿哥减仓</p><p>2亿哥周四周五分别减仓了2.6万手跟1.75万手135call <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241220 135.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241220%20135.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 135.0 CALL$</a> ，还剩12.4万手左右。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/178cd0043a76b3921a0fb5f988326ec0\" tg-width=\"1988\" tg-height=\"1434\"></p><h4 id=\"id_372849669\">正股保护：</h4><p>周二开仓大单，保护性看跌流：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>正股</p></li><li><p><a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250117 140.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250117%20140.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20250117 140.0 PUT$</a> x1</p></li><li><p><a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250117 98.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250117%2098.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20250117 98.0 PUT$</a> x4</p></li></ul><p>按价格计算不加杠杆对冲可以选120行权价，不过估计交易者非常不想接盘所以选择98。这套对冲方法和领口策略各有优劣。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d1c5d0eba8dce1921a8f6392eaba7c\" tg-width=\"2418\" tg-height=\"148\"></p><p>总结：</p><p>如果选择激进看涨股价，150跟160都是一个坎，需要考虑看涨150以上还是160以上。</p><p>如果选择激进看跌股价，可以考虑125以下，不过目前看跌派还是以温和看跌为主，即股价下跌至130～140区间。</p><p>因为英伟达股价还是长期看涨，所以不用过分看空，即使低开股价大概率也会高走。</p><p>最安全过财报方法肯定是做空波动率，卖delta0.2的价外期权。</p><p>我本人还是多头，选择持股+sell put 120 卖出<a title=\"$NVDA 20241122 120.0 PUT$ \" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20120.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20241122 120.0 PUT$ </a> +sell call 160 卖出<a title=\"$NVDA 20241122 160.0 CALL$ \" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20160.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241122 160.0 CALL$ </a>。</p><p>不过看完未平仓数据感觉sell call行权价选165以上更好，以当前145股价计算，如果盘后股价直接达到10%，开盘股价拉爆是大概率事件。不过已经卖了就没办法了，到时候只能当机立断sell put了。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a></p><p>周三盘后英伟达即将公布Q3财报，根据彭博分析师预期，英伟达三季度营收为331.25亿美元，调整后净利润为184.93亿美元，调整后EPS为0.739美元。</p><p>周三盘后能否大涨取决于营收能否继续超20亿，以及下季度营收展望能否再超预期。</p><p>根据期权未平仓数据，大单押注偏向使用看涨期权，150或为本次财报突破分水岭。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e55ea0a0ed9961b4ca9a8890ab5b996\" tg-width=\"782\" tg-height=\"868\"></p><p>受股价回调影响，财报大单都比较保守。下面整理这几天期权大单，方便大家参考。</p><p>可能有人想选一种策略是亏的少，赚的多，还能覆盖更多方向。我看过了，没有，条件只能三选二。</p><h4 id=\"id_4183207552\">一号选手：重仓看涨</h4><p>买入12月20日到期180call，卖出12月20日到期190call：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>买<a title=\"$NVDA 20241220 180.0 CALL$ \" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241220 180.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 180.0 CALL$ </a></p></li><li><p>卖<a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241220 190.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241220%20190.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 190.0 CALL$</a></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d600af1986a49c077ef8b232a20112c3\" tg-width=\"2420\" tg-height=\"782\"></p><p>有多重仓呢，从10月17日起开始买入180/190看涨价差组合，约开仓十几万手。减去190对冲，实际成本大约是180call价格的三分之一，粗略估算需要花费大约1000多万。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bcf7b2862e153174304b8c2ae3cb9da\" tg-width=\"1968\" tg-height=\"1436\"></p><p>因为190对冲了波动率跟时间价值，所以这单不需要涨到180就可以赚钱，理论上需要股价达到8%以上涨幅，高开160以上。</p><h4 id=\"id_2401804099\">二号选手：低于150</h4><p>二号选手是每周备兑roll仓的机构，他们认为英伟达本周股价在150以下，对冲区间是150～162.5：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241122 150.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20150.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241122 150.0 CALL$</a>，成交量7.83万</p></li><li><p>买<a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241122 162.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20162.5%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241122 162.5 CALL$</a>，成交量7.83万</p></li></ul><p>朋友问我为什么开仓162.5而不是160。我看了一下未平仓数据，160未平仓7.2万手，万一财报大涨，160爆仓概率更大。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7002d0f936c1237cf873c67a1a02f9\" tg-width=\"2420\" tg-height=\"254\"></p><h4 id=\"id_113161450\">三号选手：140～150</h4><p>三号选手选择悄悄开仓，看涨140以上150以下，周二收盘股价达到147，不确定今晚会不会平仓：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241220 140.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241220%20140.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 140.0 CALL$</a> ，成交2万手</p></li></ul><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241220 150.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241220%20150.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 150.0 CALL$</a> ，成交2万手</p></li></ul><p>140跟150也是未平仓数据名列前茅的两个行权价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9555aa3150db9ba9ab4f0355d8265ed\" tg-width=\"2038\" tg-height=\"1442\"></p><h4 id=\"id_985109280\">四号选手：不花钱看涨155</h4><p>做多155同时sell put130对冲看涨成本：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241206 130.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241206%20130.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20241206 130.0 PUT$</a> ，成交量5000手</p></li><li><p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241206 155.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241206%20155.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241206 155.0 CALL$</a> ，成交量5000手</p></li></ul><p>这单妙在sell put刚好抵消buy call成本，如果英伟达涨超155大赚，没涨到155不亏，没跌破130也不亏，跌破130需要接盘。</p><p>精准1:1对冲成本的策略说明交易者信心不足。</p><h4 id=\"id_2639832770\">五号选手：看涨155以上</h4><p>远期做多155，卖120put以及175call对冲看涨成本：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250321 120.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250321%20120.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20250321 120.0 PUT$</a></p></li><li><p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250321 155.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250321%20155.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250321 155.0 CALL$</a></p></li><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250321 175.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250321%20175.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250321 175.0 CALL$</a></p></li></ul><p>比上一位的交易策略更完善，但如果是我175call会选择更近的到期日。</p><h4 id=\"id_1103601459\">六号选手：跨式偏向看跌135以下125以上</h4><p>做多波动率买入跨式，但看跌为主，股价大概率跌到135以下125以上：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241122 125.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20125.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20241122 125.0 PUT$</a></p></li><li><p>买 <a title=\"$NVDA 20241122 135.0 PUT$ \" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241122 135.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20241122 135.0 PUT$ </a></p></li><li><p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241122 155.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20155.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241122 155.0 CALL$</a></p></li></ul><p>本周到期期权策略中，平价期权价值最高，权重会更高一级，所以综合评价此策略偏向看跌。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae94d0851b35ea5b506ec4c6f24602b\" tg-width=\"2420\" tg-height=\"200\"></p><h4 id=\"id_988745957\">七号选手：跨式看涨150以上</h4><p>第四位交易者，看涨股价到150以上，同时预防意外暴跌：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖 <a title=\"$NVDA 20241122 105.0 PUT$ \" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241122 105.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20241122 105.0 PUT$ </a></p></li><li><p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241122 125.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20125.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20241122 125.0 PUT$</a></p></li><li><p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241220 150.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241220%20150.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 150.0 CALL$</a></p></li><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250117 180.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250117%20180.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250117 180.0 CALL$</a></p></li></ul><p>看跌期权到期日都是本周到期，行权价选择价外，说明交易者认为暴跌是小概率事件，策略还是偏向看涨。</p><h4 id=\"id_2431586450\">八号选手：跨式策略160以上124以下</h4><p>真正的赌命选手，到期日选择本周，小技巧call行权价选择价内，put行权价选择价外，小涨小跌能保住一条腿，另一条腿亏完，只有暴涨暴跌才能赚：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241122 140.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20140.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241122 140.0 CALL$</a></p></li><li><p><a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241122 142.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20142.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20241122 142.0 PUT$</a> x2</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47ee2f0e344b5067d27e832c9a7813d9\" tg-width=\"2412\" tg-height=\"142\"></p><p>顺带一提，110sell put<a title=\"$NVDA 20241220 110.0 PUT$ \" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241220 110.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20241220 110.0 PUT$ </a>选手提前平仓，不参与财报。</p><h4 id=\"id_158603541\">roll仓选手：</h4><p>这次财报前有很多看涨大单roll仓，说明并不是强烈看好这次财报，所以roll仓延缓时间衰减。这种拿不准的态度也是一种信号。</p><p>不过大单统一倾向长期看涨160。</p><p>第一组场内交易，平仓165-216call，开仓160-190call：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>平仓 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250321 215.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250321%20215.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250321 215.0 CALL$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250321 165.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250321%20165.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250321 165.0 CALL$</a></p></li><li><p>开仓 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250117 160.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250117%20160.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250117 160.0 CALL$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241220 190.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241220%20190.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 190.0 CALL$</a></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ea50eed29845ed0074c5d8801730ccb\" tg-width=\"2418\" tg-height=\"258\"></p><p>第二组：看涨160</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>平仓 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250321 134.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250321%20134.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250321 134.0 CALL$</a></p></li></ul><ul style=\"\"><li><p>roll开仓 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251219 168.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251219%20168.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20251219 168.0 CALL$</a></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf23f101834d5538e42fd0fb1562e6a\" tg-width=\"2420\" tg-height=\"150\"></p><p>第三组：看涨170：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>平仓 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241220 160.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241220%20160.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 160.0 CALL$</a></p></li><li><p>roll买入 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250117 170.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250117%20170.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20250117 170.0 CALL$</a></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5517650468cba1cd767b533bf5b982c6\" tg-width=\"2422\" tg-height=\"166\"></p><p>评价比较负面：2亿哥减仓</p><p>2亿哥周四周五分别减仓了2.6万手跟1.75万手135call <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20241220 135.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241220%20135.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 135.0 CALL$</a> ，还剩12.4万手左右。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/178cd0043a76b3921a0fb5f988326ec0\" tg-width=\"1988\" tg-height=\"1434\"></p><h4 id=\"id_372849669\">正股保护：</h4><p>周二开仓大单，保护性看跌流：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>正股</p></li><li><p><a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250117 140.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250117%20140.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20250117 140.0 PUT$</a> x1</p></li><li><p><a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250117 98.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250117%2098.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20250117 98.0 PUT$</a> x4</p></li></ul><p>按价格计算不加杠杆对冲可以选120行权价，不过估计交易者非常不想接盘所以选择98。这套对冲方法和领口策略各有优劣。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d1c5d0eba8dce1921a8f6392eaba7c\" tg-width=\"2418\" tg-height=\"148\"></p><p>总结：</p><p>如果选择激进看涨股价，150跟160都是一个坎，需要考虑看涨150以上还是160以上。</p><p>如果选择激进看跌股价，可以考虑125以下，不过目前看跌派还是以温和看跌为主，即股价下跌至130～140区间。</p><p>因为英伟达股价还是长期看涨，所以不用过分看空，即使低开股价大概率也会高走。</p><p>最安全过财报方法肯定是做空波动率，卖delta0.2的价外期权。</p><p>我本人还是多头，选择持股+sell put 120 卖出<a title=\"$NVDA 20241122 120.0 PUT$ \" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20120.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20241122 120.0 PUT$ </a> +sell call 160 卖出<a title=\"$NVDA 20241122 160.0 CALL$ \" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020241122%20160.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20241122 160.0 CALL$ </a>。</p><p>不过看完未平仓数据感觉sell call行权价选165以上更好，以当前145股价计算，如果盘后股价直接达到10%，开盘股价拉爆是大概率事件。不过已经卖了就没办法了，到时候只能当机立断sell put了。</p></body></html>","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 周三盘后英伟达即将公布Q3财报，根据彭博分析师预期，英伟达三季度营收为331.25亿美元，调整后净利润为184.93亿美元，调整后EPS为0.739美元。 周三盘后能否大涨取决于营收能否继续超20亿，以及下季度营收展望能否再超预期。 根据期权未平仓数据，大单押注偏向使用看涨期权，150或为本次财报突破分水岭。 受股价回调影响，财报大单都比较保守。下面整理这几天期权大单，方便大家参考。 可能有人想选一种策略是亏的少，赚的多，还能覆盖更多方向。我看过了，没有，条件只能三选二。 一号选手：重仓看涨 买入12月20日到期180call，卖出12月20日到期190call： 买$NVDA 20241220 180.0 CALL$ 卖$NVDA 20241220 190.0 CALL$ 有多重仓呢，从10月17日起开始买入180/190看涨价差组合，约开仓十几万手。减去190对冲，实际成本大约是180call价格的三分之一，粗略估算需要花费大约1000多万。 因为190对冲了波动率跟时间价值，所以这单不需要涨到180就可以赚钱，理论上需要股价达到8%以上涨幅，高开160以上。 二号选手：低于150 二号选手是每周备兑roll仓的机构，他们认为英伟达本周股价在150以下，对冲区间是150～162.5： 卖 $NVDA 20241122 150.0 CALL$，成交量7.83万 买$NVDA 20241122 162.5 CALL$，成交量7.83万 朋友问我为什么开仓162.5而不是160。我看了一下未平仓数据，160未平仓7.2万手，万一财报大涨，160爆仓概率更大。 三号选手：140～150 三号选手选择悄悄开仓，看涨140以上150以下，周二收盘股价达到147，不确定今晚会不会平仓： 买 $NVDA 20241220 140.0 CALL$ ，成交2万手 卖 $NVDA 20241220 150.0 CALL$ ，成交2万手 140跟150也是未平仓数据名列前茅的两个行权价。 四号选手：不花钱看涨155 做多155同时sell put130对冲看涨成本： 卖 $NVDA 20241206 130.0 PUT$ ，成交量5000手 买 $NVDA 20241206 155.0 CALL$ ，成交量5000手 这单妙在sell put刚好抵消buy call成本，如果英伟达涨超155大赚，没涨到155不亏，没跌破130也不亏，跌破130需要接盘。 精准1:1对冲成本的策略说明交易者信心不足。 五号选手：看涨155以上 远期做多155，卖120put以及175call对冲看涨成本： 卖 $NVDA 20250321 120.0 PUT$ 买 $NVDA 20250321 155.0 CALL$ 卖 $NVDA 20250321 175.0 CALL$ 比上一位的交易策略更完善，但如果是我175call会选择更近的到期日。 六号选手：跨式偏向看跌135以下125以上 做多波动率买入跨式，但看跌为主，股价大概率跌到135以下125以上： 卖 $NVDA 20241122 125.0 PUT$ 买 $NVDA 20241122 135.0 PUT$ 买 $NVDA 20241122 155.0 CALL$ 本周到期期权策略中，平价期权价值最高，权重会更高一级，所以综合评价此策略偏向看跌。 七号选手：跨式看涨150以上 第四位交易者，看涨股价到150以上，同时预防意外暴跌： 卖 $NVDA 20241122 105.0 PUT$ 买 $NVDA 20241122 125.0 PUT$ 买 $NVDA 20241220 150.0 CALL$ 卖 $NVDA 20250117 180.0 CALL$ 看跌期权到期日都是本周到期，行权价选择价外，说明交易者认为暴跌是小概率事件，策略还是偏向看涨。 八号选手：跨式策略160以上124以下 真正的赌命选手，到期日选择本周，小技巧call行权价选择价内，put行权价选择价外，小涨小跌能保住一条腿，另一条腿亏完，只有暴涨暴跌才能赚： $NVDA 20241122 140.0 CALL$ $NVDA 20241122 142.0 PUT$ x2 顺带一提，110sell put$NVDA 20241220 110.0 PUT$ 选手提前平仓，不参与财报。 roll仓选手： 这次财报前有很多看涨大单roll仓，说明并不是强烈看好这次财报，所以roll仓延缓时间衰减。这种拿不准的态度也是一种信号。 不过大单统一倾向长期看涨160。 第一组场内交易，平仓165-216call，开仓160-190call： 平仓 $NVDA 20250321 215.0 CALL$ $NVDA 20250321 165.0 CALL$ 开仓 $NVDA 20250117 160.0 CALL$ $NVDA 20241220 190.0 CALL$ 第二组：看涨160 平仓 $NVDA 20250321 134.0 CALL$ roll开仓 $NVDA 20251219 168.0 CALL$ 第三组：看涨170： 平仓 $NVDA 20241220 160.0 CALL$ roll买入 $NVDA 20250117 170.0 CALL$ 评价比较负面：2亿哥减仓 2亿哥周四周五分别减仓了2.6万手跟1.75万手135call $NVDA 20241220 135.0 CALL$ ，还剩12.4万手左右。 正股保护： 周二开仓大单，保护性看跌流： 正股 $NVDA 20250117 140.0 PUT$ x1 $NVDA 20250117 98.0 PUT$ x4 按价格计算不加杠杆对冲可以选120行权价，不过估计交易者非常不想接盘所以选择98。这套对冲方法和领口策略各有优劣。 总结： 如果选择激进看涨股价，150跟160都是一个坎，需要考虑看涨150以上还是160以上。 如果选择激进看跌股价，可以考虑125以下，不过目前看跌派还是以温和看跌为主，即股价下跌至130～140区间。 因为英伟达股价还是长期看涨，所以不用过分看空，即使低开股价大概率也会高走。 最安全过财报方法肯定是做空波动率，卖delta0.2的价外期权。 我本人还是多头，选择持股+sell put 120 卖出$NVDA 20241122 120.0 PUT$ +sell call 160 卖出$NVDA 20241122 160.0 CALL$ 。 不过看完未平仓数据感觉sell call行权价选165以上更好，以当前145股价计算，如果盘后股价直接达到10%，开盘股价拉爆是大概率事件。不过已经卖了就没办法了，到时候只能当机立断sell put了。","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373124483231752","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","NVDA 20241220 135.0 CALL","NVDA 20241220 160.0 CALL","NVDA 20241220 180.0 CALL","NVDA 20241220 150.0 CALL","NVDA 20250321 175.0 CALL","NVDA 20241206 130.0 PUT","NVDA 20250321 165.0 CALL","NVDA 20250321 215.0 CALL","NVDA 20241122 142.0 PUT","NVDA 20241122 105.0 PUT","NVDA 20241220 140.0 CALL","NVDA 20241122 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