日常跟踪｜COIN与MSTR

玲儿小盯裆

Image

写在前面：因为文中是tradingview中直接的截图，所以手机观看可能体验不佳，建议电脑查看。

一句话：Crypto主升浪即将来，山寨币需要一点点耐心。mstr短期高估，中期合理，长期低估；coin需要耐心等待主升浪。

About BTC

$CME比特币主连 2411(BTCmain)$ BTC最近一直在6.7-6.9w之间震荡，有点磨人，笔者认为主升浪就在不远，交易来说可以持有部分的底仓，还有部份的仓位突破买入。

Image

Image

Image

About MSTR

$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ MSTR从下面的图上来看，对于6.9w的BTC有一点点贵，但是对于7w5甚至8w的BTC来说完全合理，这个概念有点像股票计价了一年后的业绩所对应的forward PE。所以这个时候MSTR就很容易超涨超跌：涨的多是因为未来的预期很好，那mstr先抢跑，先把估值打上去；跌得多是因为如果BTC出现调整，mstr需要回摆。

Image

那么我想对于MSTR的交易策略就很直接了：这个位置除非BTC直接突破，不然暂时不要买入MSTR，因为现在forward PE带来的安全垫太少了。如果BTC出现调整的话，迟迟没有突破的话，那么mstr也有概率出现调整，只要到达一个合理的估值，完全可以继续大胆买。

Image

About Altseason

山寨季：显然还没有来，下图列举了3个比值。在图片里面，上方是 crypto cap ex BTC / BTC cap，中间是ETH / BTC ，下方是coin / mstr，他们都长期处于ma250以下，所以很明显山寨季还没有来临。逻辑上来说，山寨季和流动性溢出有关系，目前流动性远没有那么到溢出的阶段。

Image

从交易策略看， $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ coin仍然需要控制仓位，尽可能低吸；除非山寨季到来，也就是下图crypto ex-BTC突破旗形整理，或者是BTC的突破，那么coin的主升浪也随之到来，此时应用对待主升浪的方式去交易。

Image

Image

如果你觉得文章不错，或者对crypto有兴趣，欢迎随时私信。

Thanks a lot.

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

好运多多多
10-25
好运多多多
mstr回调到什么位置，您觉得比较合理？现在感觉溢价有点多…
- 玲儿小盯裆:
  这是一个动态的观察，如果btc价格不变，差不多180左右
狂野大香蕉
10-25
狂野大香蕉
学习

发表看法

3

6

2

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":363807233081536,"tweetId":"363807233081536","gmtCreate":1729830255966,"gmtModify":1729831175388,"author":{"id":3499558656285424,"idStr":"3499558656285424","authorId":3499558656285424,"authorIdStr":"3499558656285424","name":"玲儿小盯裆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4330b0751860ddfac38a8829d26c110","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.04.01","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"社区优质创作者：发表过3篇及以上精华帖，且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.27","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"}}],"fanSize":143,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d7f35e1866bc9562ea1fe2740bec86","width":"626","height":"626"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b92f30fe88cd09be4f73082d4ac90b9","width":"1080","height":"477"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab4c0164e8526044e818bcaba490567d","width":"1080","height":"477"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8565176f978d9c340718f10b8819898","width":"1080","height":"477"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4275a3463bcdb2385a88fed00891b2a3","width":"1080","height":"512"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a59559aa5b89d6053ffc0814d85a47ad","width":"1080","height":"437"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/982c4fa40c0fbff3c436094c72e235ce","width":"1080","height":"477"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4250f78899b57b644468716f6afd1e19","width":"1080","height":"477"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cafeb613e481d7d9aba2cc0d22c82767","width":"1080","height":"477"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d7f35e1866bc9562ea1fe2740bec86","width":"626","height":"626"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b92f30fe88cd09be4f73082d4ac90b9","width":"1080","height":"477"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab4c0164e8526044e818bcaba490567d","width":"1080","height":"477"}],"title":"日常跟踪｜COIN与MSTR","html":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d7f35e1866bc9562ea1fe2740bec86\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"626\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">写在前面：因为文中是tradingview中直接的截图，所以手机观看可能体验不佳，<strong><em>建议电脑查看</em></strong>。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一句话：Crypto主升浪即将来，山寨币需要一点点耐心。mstr短期高估，中期合理，长期低估；coin需要耐心等待主升浪。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>About BTC</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/BTCmain\">$CME比特币主连 2411(BTCmain)$</a> BTC最近一直在6.7-6.9w之间震荡，有点磨人，笔者认为主升浪就在不远，交易来说可以持有部分的底仓，还有部份的仓位突破买入。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b92f30fe88cd09be4f73082d4ac90b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"477\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab4c0164e8526044e818bcaba490567d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"477\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8565176f978d9c340718f10b8819898\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"477\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>About MSTR</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$</a> MSTR从下面的图上来看，对于6.9w的BTC有一点点贵，但是对于7w5甚至8w的BTC来说完全合理，这个概念有点像<strong><em>股票计价了一年后的业绩所对应的forward PE</em></strong>。所以这个时候MSTR就很容易超涨超跌：<strong><em>涨的多是因为未来的预期很好，那mstr先抢跑，先把估值打上去</em></strong>；跌得多是因为如果BTC出现调整，mstr需要回摆。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4275a3463bcdb2385a88fed00891b2a3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么我想对于MSTR的交易策略就很直接了：这个位置<strong><em>除非BTC直接突破，不然暂时不要买入MSTR</em></strong>，因为现在forward PE带来的安全垫太少了。如果BTC出现调整的话，迟迟没有突破的话，那么mstr也有概率出现调整，<strong><em>只要到达一个合理的估值，完全可以继续大胆买</em></strong>。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a59559aa5b89d6053ffc0814d85a47ad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>About Altseason</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">山寨季：显然还没有来，下图列举了3个比值。在图片里面，上方是 crypto cap ex BTC /&nbsp;BTC cap，中间是ETH / BTC ，下方是coin / mstr，他们都长期处于ma250以下，所以很明显山寨季还没有来临。逻辑上来说，山寨季和流动性溢出有关系，目前流动性远没有那么到溢出的阶段。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/982c4fa40c0fbff3c436094c72e235ce\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"477\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p>从交易策略看， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a> coin仍然需要控制仓位，尽可能低吸；除非山寨季到来，也就是<strong><em>下图crypto ex-BTC突破旗形整理，或者是BTC的突破，那么coin的主升浪也随之到来</em></strong>，此时应用对待主升浪的方式去交易。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4250f78899b57b644468716f6afd1e19\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"477\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cafeb613e481d7d9aba2cc0d22c82767\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"477\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果你觉得文章不错，或者对crypto有兴趣，欢迎随时私信。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Thanks a lot.</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d7f35e1866bc9562ea1fe2740bec86\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"626\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">写在前面：因为文中是tradingview中直接的截图，所以手机观看可能体验不佳，<strong><em>建议电脑查看</em></strong>。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一句话：Crypto主升浪即将来，山寨币需要一点点耐心。mstr短期高估，中期合理，长期低估；coin需要耐心等待主升浪。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>About BTC</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/BTCmain\">$CME比特币主连 2411(BTCmain)$</a> BTC最近一直在6.7-6.9w之间震荡，有点磨人，笔者认为主升浪就在不远，交易来说可以持有部分的底仓，还有部份的仓位突破买入。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b92f30fe88cd09be4f73082d4ac90b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"477\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab4c0164e8526044e818bcaba490567d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"477\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8565176f978d9c340718f10b8819898\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"477\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>About MSTR</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$</a> MSTR从下面的图上来看，对于6.9w的BTC有一点点贵，但是对于7w5甚至8w的BTC来说完全合理，这个概念有点像<strong><em>股票计价了一年后的业绩所对应的forward PE</em></strong>。所以这个时候MSTR就很容易超涨超跌：<strong><em>涨的多是因为未来的预期很好，那mstr先抢跑，先把估值打上去</em></strong>；跌得多是因为如果BTC出现调整，mstr需要回摆。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4275a3463bcdb2385a88fed00891b2a3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么我想对于MSTR的交易策略就很直接了：这个位置<strong><em>除非BTC直接突破，不然暂时不要买入MSTR</em></strong>，因为现在forward PE带来的安全垫太少了。如果BTC出现调整的话，迟迟没有突破的话，那么mstr也有概率出现调整，<strong><em>只要到达一个合理的估值，完全可以继续大胆买</em></strong>。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a59559aa5b89d6053ffc0814d85a47ad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>About Altseason</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">山寨季：显然还没有来，下图列举了3个比值。在图片里面，上方是 crypto cap ex BTC /&nbsp;BTC cap，中间是ETH / BTC ，下方是coin / mstr，他们都长期处于ma250以下，所以很明显山寨季还没有来临。逻辑上来说，山寨季和流动性溢出有关系，目前流动性远没有那么到溢出的阶段。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/982c4fa40c0fbff3c436094c72e235ce\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"477\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p>从交易策略看， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a> coin仍然需要控制仓位，尽可能低吸；除非山寨季到来，也就是<strong><em>下图crypto ex-BTC突破旗形整理，或者是BTC的突破，那么coin的主升浪也随之到来</em></strong>，此时应用对待主升浪的方式去交易。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4250f78899b57b644468716f6afd1e19\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"477\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cafeb613e481d7d9aba2cc0d22c82767\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"477\"><span>Image</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果你觉得文章不错，或者对crypto有兴趣，欢迎随时私信。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Thanks a lot.</p></body></html>","text":"Image 写在前面：因为文中是tradingview中直接的截图，所以手机观看可能体验不佳，建议电脑查看。 一句话：Crypto主升浪即将来，山寨币需要一点点耐心。mstr短期高估，中期合理，长期低估；coin需要耐心等待主升浪。 About BTC $CME比特币主连 2411(BTCmain)$ BTC最近一直在6.7-6.9w之间震荡，有点磨人，笔者认为主升浪就在不远，交易来说可以持有部分的底仓，还有部份的仓位突破买入。 Image Image Image About MSTR $MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ MSTR从下面的图上来看，对于6.9w的BTC有一点点贵，但是对于7w5甚至8w的BTC来说完全合理，这个概念有点像股票计价了一年后的业绩所对应的forward PE。所以这个时候MSTR就很容易超涨超跌：涨的多是因为未来的预期很好，那mstr先抢跑，先把估值打上去；跌得多是因为如果BTC出现调整，mstr需要回摆。 Image 那么我想对于MSTR的交易策略就很直接了：这个位置除非BTC直接突破，不然暂时不要买入MSTR，因为现在forward PE带来的安全垫太少了。如果BTC出现调整的话，迟迟没有突破的话，那么mstr也有概率出现调整，只要到达一个合理的估值，完全可以继续大胆买。 Image About Altseason 山寨季：显然还没有来，下图列举了3个比值。在图片里面，上方是 crypto cap ex BTC / BTC cap，中间是ETH / BTC ，下方是coin / mstr，他们都长期处于ma250以下，所以很明显山寨季还没有来临。逻辑上来说，山寨季和流动性溢出有关系，目前流动性远没有那么到溢出的阶段。 Image 从交易策略看， $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ coin仍然需要控制仓位，尽可能低吸；除非山寨季到来，也就是下图crypto ex-BTC突破旗形整理，或者是BTC的突破，那么coin的主升浪也随之到来，此时应用对待主升浪的方式去交易。 Image Image 如果你觉得文章不错，或者对crypto有兴趣，欢迎随时私信。 Thanks a lot.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363807233081536","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["MSTR","COIN","BTCmain"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1401,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":363941444772136,"commentId":"363941444772136","gmtCreate":1729863066493,"gmtModify":1729863070195,"authorId":3488276598659051,"author":{"id":3488276598659051,"idStr":"3488276598659051","authorId":3488276598659051,"name":"好运多多多","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4bc728b33332d42cf7e5660a4609fa6","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":363807233081536,"objectIdStr":"363807233081536","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"mstr回调到什么位置，您觉得比较合理？现在感觉溢价有点多…","text":"mstr回调到什么位置，您觉得比较合理？现在感觉溢价有点多…","html":"mstr回调到什么位置，您觉得比较合理？现在感觉溢价有点多…","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":364145876832496,"commentId":"364145876832496","gmtCreate":1729912821578,"gmtModify":1729912825520,"authorId":3499558656285424,"author":{"id":3499558656285424,"idStr":"3499558656285424","authorId":3499558656285424,"name":"玲儿小盯裆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4330b0751860ddfac38a8829d26c110","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.04.01","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"社区优质创作者：发表过3篇及以上精华帖，且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.27","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"},"individualDisplaySort":1,"categoryType":2007}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":363807233081536,"objectIdStr":"363807233081536","type":1,"supId":363941444772136,"supIdStr":"363941444772136","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"这是一个动态的观察，如果btc价格不变，差不多180左右","text":"这是一个动态的观察，如果btc价格不变，差不多180左右","html":"这是一个动态的观察，如果btc价格不变，差不多180左右"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"hot","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":363856746217536,"commentId":"363856746217536","gmtCreate":1729842231244,"gmtModify":1729842234783,"authorId":4129357041877310,"author":{"id":4129357041877310,"idStr":"4129357041877310","authorId":4129357041877310,"name":"狂野大香蕉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9577fedbf93610dbddefd04e758042da","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":363807233081536,"objectIdStr":"363807233081536","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"<p>学习</p>","text":"<p>学习</p>","html":"<p>学习</p>","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/363807233081536"}