Jiukengnidie
2021-03-29
[思考] [思考]
@小虎周报:
港股周策略:中期布局窗口料已出现!关注优质龙头财报
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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[思考]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352760271","repostId":352438259,"repostType":1,"repost":{"magic":2,"id":352438259,"tweetId":"352438259","gmtCreate":1616991888167,"gmtModify":1617246573932,"author":{"id":36979109942400,"idStr":"36979109942400","authorId":36979109942400,"authorIdStr":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","vip":4,"userType":4,"introduction":"老虎股票官方帐号","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":564896,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"2782f14fb4044387bb6c40e93b4eca31","categoryId":"ab3d937a5fd848c08008411a9be702b5","name":"老虎官方出品","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":2782f14fb4044387bb6c40e93b4eca31}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": 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<p>一、指数环境评估:港股调整几乎结束,料重新冲击30000关口。</p> <p>二、陆港通观察:资金仍持续流入消费、金融行业。</p> <p>三、财报季高峰,关注:比亚迪、思摩尔国际、中国恒大、京东健康</p> <p><b>一、恒指调整几乎结束,中期窗口宜积极布局</b></p> <p>恒生指数上周大幅下行(-2.2%),将年初至今的涨幅收窄至4%;从中期的角度看待港股投资的指数环境,我们仍认为这里不需要过分悲观。一方面,从整个基本面上看,逆周期内,国内货币政策进退有序,基本排除超常规的利空,料对指数慢牛起到护航作用;抱团股有业绩支撑,剩下的企业或有业绩,但没有泡沫化;</p> <p>另一方面,港股本身还是受到海外流动性的影响,在目前美联储资产购买规模至少可以保持在明年的基准预期下,海外市场的风险偏好也会获得支撑;对港股来讲,比较偏利空的在于美元、美债收益率抬升,导致资金流出新兴市场,我们认为这部分可能会影响港股后续的空间,不过目前美债收益率上涨斜率已经放缓,未来的悬念还在于美债收益率后续的抬升(比如到2%后),会不会倒逼美联储采取行动。</p> <p>最后,我们从技术性角度观察,可能会更好理解一些,我们看上周无论是上证、还是恒指,均已接近完成各自的调整路径。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/513600\">$恒生指数ETF(513600)$</a></p> <p>比如,港股<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a> 和A股<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a> 的调整,均是回撤趋势线的反向延长线的路径,撑压互换后,在目前并没有显著利空的情况下,我们认为这轮调整几乎结束。从历史回溯看,港股和A股虽然和美债并没有显著的相关性,但近期确实也受到了美债美股的情绪牵动(主要是美元抬升预期)。美债抬升的速度缓和后,也有助于市场情绪修复。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfb2d998cf0a463724787b58e494d103\" tg-width=\"1183\" tg-height=\"652\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c4b5ec88a6b6627e024f665ecab043d\" tg-width=\"1167\" tg-height=\"693\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3981fe5b83c71b97f316d75582d71296\" tg-width=\"1178\" tg-height=\"725\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3ecf82d61ee1da97af66d7d822fc5d5\" tg-width=\"1173\" tg-height=\"693\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c128aaaadb9a8509cb9d03e27dcb66\" tg-width=\"1181\" tg-height=\"694\"><b>三、港股财报关注:比亚迪、思摩尔国际、中国恒大、京东健康</b></p> <p>本周继续聚焦港股财报季,新能源汽车龙头<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">$比亚迪(002594)$</a> 、电子烟龙头<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06969\">$思摩尔国际(06969)$</a> 将公布财报。此外,值得关注的有<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">$中国恒大(03333)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00520\">$呷哺呷哺(00520)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">$京东健康(06618)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00285\">$比亚迪电子(00285)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">$赣锋锂业(002460)$</a> 等。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8707ca38e23ecb904efb1350782c8ee0\" tg-width=\"1175\" tg-height=\"512\"></p> <p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSCEI\">$国企指数(HSCEI)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSCCI\">$红筹指数(HSCCI)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$</a></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>投资要点</b></p> <p>一、指数环境评估:港股调整几乎结束,料重新冲击30000关口。</p> <p>二、陆港通观察:资金仍持续流入消费、金融行业。</p> <p>三、财报季高峰,关注:比亚迪、思摩尔国际、中国恒大、京东健康</p> <p><b>一、恒指调整几乎结束,中期窗口宜积极布局</b></p> <p>恒生指数上周大幅下行(-2.2%),将年初至今的涨幅收窄至4%;从中期的角度看待港股投资的指数环境,我们仍认为这里不需要过分悲观。一方面,从整个基本面上看,逆周期内,国内货币政策进退有序,基本排除超常规的利空,料对指数慢牛起到护航作用;抱团股有业绩支撑,剩下的企业或有业绩,但没有泡沫化;</p> <p>另一方面,港股本身还是受到海外流动性的影响,在目前美联储资产购买规模至少可以保持在明年的基准预期下,海外市场的风险偏好也会获得支撑;对港股来讲,比较偏利空的在于美元、美债收益率抬升,导致资金流出新兴市场,我们认为这部分可能会影响港股后续的空间,不过目前美债收益率上涨斜率已经放缓,未来的悬念还在于美债收益率后续的抬升(比如到2%后),会不会倒逼美联储采取行动。</p> <p>最后,我们从技术性角度观察,可能会更好理解一些,我们看上周无论是上证、还是恒指,均已接近完成各自的调整路径。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/513600\">$恒生指数ETF(513600)$</a></p> <p>比如,港股<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a> 和A股<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a> 的调整,均是回撤趋势线的反向延长线的路径,撑压互换后,在目前并没有显著利空的情况下,我们认为这轮调整几乎结束。从历史回溯看,港股和A股虽然和美债并没有显著的相关性,但近期确实也受到了美债美股的情绪牵动(主要是美元抬升预期)。美债抬升的速度缓和后,也有助于市场情绪修复。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfb2d998cf0a463724787b58e494d103\" tg-width=\"1183\" tg-height=\"652\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c4b5ec88a6b6627e024f665ecab043d\" tg-width=\"1167\" tg-height=\"693\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3981fe5b83c71b97f316d75582d71296\" tg-width=\"1178\" tg-height=\"725\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3ecf82d61ee1da97af66d7d822fc5d5\" tg-width=\"1173\" tg-height=\"693\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c128aaaadb9a8509cb9d03e27dcb66\" tg-width=\"1181\" tg-height=\"694\"><b>三、港股财报关注:比亚迪、思摩尔国际、中国恒大、京东健康</b></p> <p>本周继续聚焦港股财报季,新能源汽车龙头<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">$比亚迪(002594)$</a> 、电子烟龙头<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06969\">$思摩尔国际(06969)$</a> 将公布财报。此外,值得关注的有<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">$中国恒大(03333)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00520\">$呷哺呷哺(00520)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">$京东健康(06618)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00285\">$比亚迪电子(00285)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">$赣锋锂业(002460)$</a> 等。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8707ca38e23ecb904efb1350782c8ee0\" tg-width=\"1175\" tg-height=\"512\"></p> <p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSCEI\">$国企指数(HSCEI)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSCCI\">$红筹指数(HSCCI)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$</a></p></body></html>","text":"投资要点 一、指数环境评估:港股调整几乎结束,料重新冲击30000关口。 二、陆港通观察:资金仍持续流入消费、金融行业。 三、财报季高峰,关注:比亚迪、思摩尔国际、中国恒大、京东健康 一、恒指调整几乎结束,中期窗口宜积极布局 恒生指数上周大幅下行(-2.2%),将年初至今的涨幅收窄至4%;从中期的角度看待港股投资的指数环境,我们仍认为这里不需要过分悲观。一方面,从整个基本面上看,逆周期内,国内货币政策进退有序,基本排除超常规的利空,料对指数慢牛起到护航作用;抱团股有业绩支撑,剩下的企业或有业绩,但没有泡沫化; 另一方面,港股本身还是受到海外流动性的影响,在目前美联储资产购买规模至少可以保持在明年的基准预期下,海外市场的风险偏好也会获得支撑;对港股来讲,比较偏利空的在于美元、美债收益率抬升,导致资金流出新兴市场,我们认为这部分可能会影响港股后续的空间,不过目前美债收益率上涨斜率已经放缓,未来的悬念还在于美债收益率后续的抬升(比如到2%后),会不会倒逼美联储采取行动。 最后,我们从技术性角度观察,可能会更好理解一些,我们看上周无论是上证、还是恒指,均已接近完成各自的调整路径。$恒生指数ETF(513600)$ 比如,港股$恒生指数(HSI)$ 和A股$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 的调整,均是回撤趋势线的反向延长线的路径,撑压互换后,在目前并没有显著利空的情况下,我们认为这轮调整几乎结束。从历史回溯看,港股和A股虽然和美债并没有显著的相关性,但近期确实也受到了美债美股的情绪牵动(主要是美元抬升预期)。美债抬升的速度缓和后,也有助于市场情绪修复。三、港股财报关注:比亚迪、思摩尔国际、中国恒大、京东健康 本周继续聚焦港股财报季,新能源汽车龙头$比亚迪(002594)$ 、电子烟龙头$思摩尔国际(06969)$ 将公布财报。此外,值得关注的有$中国恒大(03333)$ 、$呷哺呷哺(00520)$ 、$京东健康(06618)$ 、$比亚迪电子(00285)$ 、$赣锋锂业(002460)$ 等。 $恒生指数(HSI)$ $国企指数(HSCEI)$ $红筹指数(HSCCI)$ $恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352438259","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["HSCCI","513600","HSCEI","06969","00520","06618","03333","00285","HSTECH","002594","HSI","000001.SH","002460"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1561,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1534,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/352760271"}
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