叶鸣波
2021-04-13
[微笑]
@小虎周报:
港股周策略:中期布局窗口料已开启
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target=\"_blank\"><i>《美债世纪难题,带来哪些投资变化》20210308</i></a><i>;</i></p> <p><b> 二、陆港通观察:指数探底触发科技回归,现金流、抗通胀体现大消费方向配置价值</b></p> <p>延续一季度时期的风格,陆港通净流入仍然是以金融、大消费为主。净流入居前的主要有<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">$中国平安(601318)$</a>、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">$招商银行(600036)$</a>、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001\">$平安银行(000001)$</a>。</p> <p>在另一个投资主线上,由于抗通胀行业本身也集中在大消费方向上,也加大了陆港通资金净流入大消费领域的持续性,包括外资也会更喜欢这类现金流更健康透明的企业。科技股延续强劲,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a>,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>继续维持净流入Top10,这些也都是具备业绩支撑的龙头企业;<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99fddb7a697c6fe208597a62559a770\" tg-width=\"1416\" tg-height=\"813\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2edc5f2d2953b1b2eb0b262ae44bd9e\" tg-width=\"1374\" tg-height=\"824\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSCEI\">$国企指数(HSCEI)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSCCI\">$红筹指数(HSCCI)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/159920\">$恒生ETF(159920)$</a></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>一、中期窗口宜积极布局</b></p> <p>上周假期期间,港股市场行情清淡,我们仍然是从政策前景来观察市场。</p> <p>这里值得注意的是,国务院副总理刘鹤上周提到关注大宗商品走势,这意味着通胀预期将会是市场比较关注的话题,因为通常投资者看通胀除了观察CPI、PPI之外也会观察大宗。根本逻辑在于,通胀问题本身也会扰动货币政策前景。不过我们认为逆周期的调控,不太可能出现突然收紧的情形(货币政策明显的拐点),导致估值过渡收紧,换言之,可能像美国一样,对通胀的容忍度也会上升。</p> <p> 路径上,我们维持对于恒指调整几乎结束,国内货币政策进退有序,中期窗口宜积极布局的判断。当然,这里面也计入了,我们对于前期恒指和纳指对10年期美债收益率过度反应后可能出现修正的乐观预期,因为目前美债收益率目前并非绝对高位,从历史股债相关性看,也很难对海外市场构成逆转。<a href=\"https://r.tigerbbs.com/lrib\" target=\"_blank\"><i>《美债世纪难题,带来哪些投资变化》20210308</i></a><i>;</i></p> <p><b> 二、陆港通观察:指数探底触发科技回归,现金流、抗通胀体现大消费方向配置价值</b></p> <p>延续一季度时期的风格,陆港通净流入仍然是以金融、大消费为主。净流入居前的主要有<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">$中国平安(601318)$</a>、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">$招商银行(600036)$</a>、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001\">$平安银行(000001)$</a>。</p> <p>在另一个投资主线上,由于抗通胀行业本身也集中在大消费方向上,也加大了陆港通资金净流入大消费领域的持续性,包括外资也会更喜欢这类现金流更健康透明的企业。科技股延续强劲,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a>,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>继续维持净流入Top10,这些也都是具备业绩支撑的龙头企业;<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99fddb7a697c6fe208597a62559a770\" tg-width=\"1416\" tg-height=\"813\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2edc5f2d2953b1b2eb0b262ae44bd9e\" tg-width=\"1374\" tg-height=\"824\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSCEI\">$国企指数(HSCEI)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSCCI\">$红筹指数(HSCCI)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/159920\">$恒生ETF(159920)$</a></p></body></html>","text":"一、中期窗口宜积极布局 上周假期期间,港股市场行情清淡,我们仍然是从政策前景来观察市场。 这里值得注意的是,国务院副总理刘鹤上周提到关注大宗商品走势,这意味着通胀预期将会是市场比较关注的话题,因为通常投资者看通胀除了观察CPI、PPI之外也会观察大宗。根本逻辑在于,通胀问题本身也会扰动货币政策前景。不过我们认为逆周期的调控,不太可能出现突然收紧的情形(货币政策明显的拐点),导致估值过渡收紧,换言之,可能像美国一样,对通胀的容忍度也会上升。 路径上,我们维持对于恒指调整几乎结束,国内货币政策进退有序,中期窗口宜积极布局的判断。当然,这里面也计入了,我们对于前期恒指和纳指对10年期美债收益率过度反应后可能出现修正的乐观预期,因为目前美债收益率目前并非绝对高位,从历史股债相关性看,也很难对海外市场构成逆转。《美债世纪难题,带来哪些投资变化》20210308; 二、陆港通观察:指数探底触发科技回归,现金流、抗通胀体现大消费方向配置价值 延续一季度时期的风格,陆港通净流入仍然是以金融、大消费为主。净流入居前的主要有$中国平安(601318)$、$招商银行(600036)$、$平安银行(000001)$。 在另一个投资主线上,由于抗通胀行业本身也集中在大消费方向上,也加大了陆港通资金净流入大消费领域的持续性,包括外资也会更喜欢这类现金流更健康透明的企业。科技股延续强劲,$腾讯控股(00700)$、$美团-W(03690)$,$小米集团-W(01810)$继续维持净流入Top10,这些也都是具备业绩支撑的龙头企业;$恒生指数(HSI)$ $国企指数(HSCEI)$ $红筹指数(HSCCI)$$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$$恒生ETF(159920)$","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342695972","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["HSCCI","HSI","HSCEI"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1264,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1488,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/345979504"}
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