czheak6400
2021-02-01
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@小虎周报:
美股周策略:美股见顶了吗?核心的参考因素是什么?
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2021-02-01
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<p><b> 一、市场上涨动能有所减弱</b></p> <p>我们注意到,近期反映市场内在力量的广度指标(我们以标普成分股中站上50日均线的成分股比例作为参考),近期已经先于指数走弱(顶部出现背离),反映虽然财报季带动了指标股走强,但大部分股票已经先行走弱。</p> <p>我们看,整个指标过去在抵达一个标准差区域后,也基本很难有长时间的持续性,属于市场上涨动能减弱的前瞻指标,未来该指标何时出现底背离值得关注(指数续弱,广度指标走强)。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b947a7247b8ff983e809dd0915a85e34\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"606\"><b>二、宽松立场和疫苗加速仍然在给市场支撑</b></p> <p>从整个Q1来看,新一轮财政刺激和疫苗接种加速有望给与市场支撑。就目前而言,至少鲍威尔还不认为是讨论退出宽松政策的时候,现阶段我们仍然看好Q1美股整体的表现,对应<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 4000点的位置。</p> <p>往前看,对于Q2来讲,通胀则是不能忽略的因素(例如,疫苗进展快,财政刺激到位,复工复产超预期,通胀跃升至2%,这种情形可能会加速QE边际拐点,或者拐点预期的来临);不过如果疫苗进展缓慢,又或复苏不及预期,也可能会淡化通胀风险。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0e175a2487f0d3d08a6f0d59a20085\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"641\">路径上,理想情景下(宽松预期延续,vs图3 ),<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>可能复刻去年9月调整时期的路径,回撤撑压区域后,继续创出新高(图4)。参考:<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/972041075\" target=\"_blank\"><i>《美股周策略:小心纳斯达克最后一波下跌》20200913</i></a><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a2183b80e28052297ca0cf40918d810\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"603\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df0f705c07639e3f048788c025b3c583\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"578\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指ETF(QQQ)$</a></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>上周美股三大指数创出去年10月以来最大周跌幅,同时,周内散户“逼空”机构的案例,也引发广泛关注。市场转而比较关心,美股整体是否在非理性上涨氛围中,出现了方向性改变。我们认为这个问题还是要锚定流动性,无论是估值还是情绪,更多还是由流动性影响。</p> <p><b> 一、市场上涨动能有所减弱</b></p> <p>我们注意到,近期反映市场内在力量的广度指标(我们以标普成分股中站上50日均线的成分股比例作为参考),近期已经先于指数走弱(顶部出现背离),反映虽然财报季带动了指标股走强,但大部分股票已经先行走弱。</p> <p>我们看,整个指标过去在抵达一个标准差区域后,也基本很难有长时间的持续性,属于市场上涨动能减弱的前瞻指标,未来该指标何时出现底背离值得关注(指数续弱,广度指标走强)。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b947a7247b8ff983e809dd0915a85e34\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"606\"><b>二、宽松立场和疫苗加速仍然在给市场支撑</b></p> <p>从整个Q1来看,新一轮财政刺激和疫苗接种加速有望给与市场支撑。就目前而言,至少鲍威尔还不认为是讨论退出宽松政策的时候,现阶段我们仍然看好Q1美股整体的表现,对应<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 4000点的位置。</p> <p>往前看,对于Q2来讲,通胀则是不能忽略的因素(例如,疫苗进展快,财政刺激到位,复工复产超预期,通胀跃升至2%,这种情形可能会加速QE边际拐点,或者拐点预期的来临);不过如果疫苗进展缓慢,又或复苏不及预期,也可能会淡化通胀风险。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0e175a2487f0d3d08a6f0d59a20085\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"641\">路径上,理想情景下(宽松预期延续,vs图3 ),<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>可能复刻去年9月调整时期的路径,回撤撑压区域后,继续创出新高(图4)。参考:<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/972041075\" target=\"_blank\"><i>《美股周策略:小心纳斯达克最后一波下跌》20200913</i></a><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a2183b80e28052297ca0cf40918d810\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"603\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df0f705c07639e3f048788c025b3c583\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"578\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指ETF(QQQ)$</a></p></body></html>","text":"上周美股三大指数创出去年10月以来最大周跌幅,同时,周内散户“逼空”机构的案例,也引发广泛关注。市场转而比较关心,美股整体是否在非理性上涨氛围中,出现了方向性改变。我们认为这个问题还是要锚定流动性,无论是估值还是情绪,更多还是由流动性影响。 一、市场上涨动能有所减弱 我们注意到,近期反映市场内在力量的广度指标(我们以标普成分股中站上50日均线的成分股比例作为参考),近期已经先于指数走弱(顶部出现背离),反映虽然财报季带动了指标股走强,但大部分股票已经先行走弱。 我们看,整个指标过去在抵达一个标准差区域后,也基本很难有长时间的持续性,属于市场上涨动能减弱的前瞻指标,未来该指标何时出现底背离值得关注(指数续弱,广度指标走强)。二、宽松立场和疫苗加速仍然在给市场支撑 从整个Q1来看,新一轮财政刺激和疫苗接种加速有望给与市场支撑。就目前而言,至少鲍威尔还不认为是讨论退出宽松政策的时候,现阶段我们仍然看好Q1美股整体的表现,对应$标普500(.SPX)$ 4000点的位置。 往前看,对于Q2来讲,通胀则是不能忽略的因素(例如,疫苗进展快,财政刺激到位,复工复产超预期,通胀跃升至2%,这种情形可能会加速QE边际拐点,或者拐点预期的来临);不过如果疫苗进展缓慢,又或复苏不及预期,也可能会淡化通胀风险。路径上,理想情景下(宽松预期延续,vs图3 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