小牛电动我赚了3倍清仓了

股价7-8块钱在吧里和交易软件里吼，寂寥无人，现在这么热闹讨论为啥莫名其妙跌？

我25清仓了，成本价8.5。

利好方面：

国内存量换新及新国标落地依然存在较大空间，可以看看两轮车的相关研报；
海外市场（欧洲高毛利，东南亚高规模）和下沉市场天花板很高，但要看接下来企业发展规划。

利空：

行业门槛不高，护城河不明显，渠道为王的$雅迪控股(01585)$、穷追不舍的9号，已经在影响小牛的高增长，且自身的品牌路线和护城河没有明显巩固和提高；
下沉市场带来的销售增长，损失毛利情况明显；
固有高端市场增速不好判断。个人判断总体上增速应该跟不上这么高的PE了，个人选择获利了结。

回到二十左右可能再看看情况，主要是赛道的增速能否保持以及行业竞争情况，决定要不要再接回来点。

分享我的交易策略

交易策略分享，说一说自己在交易中的那些神操作吧，你的idea说不定价值百万！

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

Sunkay
2020-10-23
Sunkay
我只想说，你根本不懂，废话连篇
- Alien回复中财股神:
  每个人都有权利凭借自己判断发表观点，既没有道德问题也没触犯法律，凭什么说人家废话连篇，可以发表不同观点，侮辱别人就不对了！继续加油！散户怎么了，散户人家也靠自己的思考赚了三倍，祝你以后继续发财！
- 6c360f8d回复大家都是读书人20313:
  你就给我说哪个股票没庄？！天天见🐶庄，被封的也就是我们这种，，🐶庄的我也就呵呵
- 大家都是读书人20313回复Sunkay:
  知道在美股坐庄是什么后果吗？交易账户会被封的。不排除做市值管理，因为小牛确实有庄。小牛这个b的庄我观察过，12块-22块那波涨幅是消息面铺路，有分析公司给了一个目标价22然后开始拉升的。但坐庄太明显是会成为靶子的，机构盯着中概股这几块肥肉，你怎么保证人家不做空你？所以脱离基本面全用庄股思维来分析，才是不理智的
- Sunkay回复中财股神:
  呵呵 😄 破散户以为赌场庄家是你这样想的？
- 中财股神:
  闭你y的gang吧，还会讨论问题呢？先学会好好跟人说话。
中财股神
2020-10-23
中财股神
Po一下去年股价煎熬时候的在pyq聊的天，小牛车我卖了两台，深入了解产品；草根调研做足功课；价值投资体系下，财务指标筛选；有幸和ceo和cfo面对面交流过企业规划。对小牛的品牌调性的执着成就了一年以上的坚守，目前股价确实有点贵了，等回归合理区间会持续关注。
阿里王
2020-10-23
阿里王
现在的PE的确过高，个人观点会在25-30调整一阵子。不过后疫情的海外业务（零售/共享电单车代工）可以期待一下，说不定是成长的另一个发力点
- 中财股神回复阿里王:
  您成本价还是比较合理的，长线的增长预期下持股没毛病，国内两轮车存量换新的市场容量我十分认同，所以赛道没问题。我建议关注一下小牛营收结构的变化，以及利润实际增速，他发力下沉市场之后毛利显然保不住，只要以及高端市场份额别失速，吸引力依旧。高端市场的前置指标我认为应该是一线和新一线城市新国标落地的力度，以及开店的速度。海外市场是彩蛋，看到效果以后再入手也不迟，现在变数太多。
- 阿里王回复中财股神:
  你比较有远见。我是六月才开始关注小牛股票的，后面仔细看了一下公司几个电话会议的内容和财务数据，9月初18.8建仓，主要还是被小牛的高毛利高增长、品牌影响和管理层资质吸引了，如果基本面不出问题会长期持有。今天学到了很多，多谢分析
- 中财股神回复阿里王:
  国内两轮车存量换新的天花板还很高，现在的情况我会选择渠道为王的 $雅迪控股(01585)$ ，大于目前估值的小牛。如果要是看好小牛的高毛利和品牌调性，为什么10块以下不建仓呢，对吧。现在持有显得比较蠢
- 中财股神:
  补充，且共享批量订单损失毛利比G系列打国内下沉市场严重的多。其实我并不能说死小牛利润增速一定下滑严重，但高端市场在各大城市的容量和增速难估，而且两轮车是不存在复购的，而其他增长引擎暂时撑不起利润增速。因此我会考虑如果给我一个相对好的安全边际，我才考虑继续持有，半年内18左右我才会考虑。
- 阿里王回复中财股神:
  同意你的分析。上季度的earnings call有解释海外营收的一个“关键驱动”是给共享运营商提供电池和零部件，还有提到欧洲共享电车订单的事情，所以我上面就提了下，但这部分业务真的看不太懂
赚到100万
2020-10-24
赚到100万
你得感谢今年疫情后很多人困难，外卖大军多了很多人，带动了电瓶车销量
- 中财股神:
  确实应该感谢疫情催化了两轮车出行的需求，但外卖小哥是不买小牛的，甚至买不起雅迪。
稳之道
2020-10-25
稳之道
有赚十倍多的呢 [害羞]
JTS
2020-11-24
JTS
之前看中小牛独特的外表，我6块5买过一点，已经卖了，目前的品牌电动车比如雅迪小牛九号，外形配置大同小异

发表看法

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01585\"> $雅迪控股(01585)$</a> ，大于目前估值的小牛。如果要是看好小牛的高毛利和品牌调性，为什么10块以下不建仓呢，对吧。现在持有显得比较蠢","text":"国内两轮车存量换新的天花板还很高，现在的情况我会选择渠道为王的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01585\"> $雅迪控股(01585)$</a> ，大于目前估值的小牛。如果要是看好小牛的高毛利和品牌调性，为什么10块以下不建仓呢，对吧。现在持有显得比较蠢","html":"国内两轮车存量换新的天花板还很高，现在的情况我会选择渠道为王的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01585\"> $雅迪控股(01585)$</a> 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[害羞]","text":"有赚十倍多的呢 [害羞]","html":"有赚十倍多的呢 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小牛电动我赚了3倍 清仓了

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小牛电动我赚了3倍清仓了