宁静的星星lifetol
03-12
//
@船长每日观察
:美国利率-核心cpi＞0，是美联储停止加息的量化前瞻指标。至于美联储降息的量化前瞻指标，则是美国利率—核心CPI＝1.7%。前瞻时间约为3个月左右。
@船长每日观察：
预计今晚美国通胀名义CPI从3.1%反弹至3.2%，核心CPI从3.9%降至3.8%，实际利率保持在之前预判的1.7%（5.5%-3.8%）$美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ 这个实际利率是走钢丝的极端平衡点，既不利好降息，也不利好加息，只能等待继续煎熬经济$黄金2404(GC2404)$ 假如今晚滞胀继续验证，乐观降息预期暴击，日本加息预期推迟，黄金/股市/债市又要迎来暴跌再暴涨的绞肉机。希望黄金能给一个1950美元/盎司之下的机会$美元/日元(USDJPY.FOREX)$
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