Ken_HONG
2023-08-17
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@51b63fa8:
上周新能车销量分析,市场底还需要时间
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<p><strong><span>声明:</span></strong></p>\n <p><span><strong><span>1)<span>股市有风险,投资需谨慎。文章里提到的所有上市公司,仅作为分析之用,不作为交易参考</span>!</span></strong></span></p>\n <p><span><strong><span>2)<span>本公众号不荐股、不诊股。文章内容和观点仅仅是个人对公司的分析看法,不做估值,仅供阅读,不构成任何投资建议!</span></span></strong></span></p>\n <p><strong><span>一、市场下跌的过程中中药板块企稳</span></strong></p>\n <p><span>这两天大盘持续调整,在寻找市场底的过程中,这个过程会比较难熬,是典型的熊市模态,要耐心等待。</span></p>\n <p><span>这波下跌过程中,新能源已经是狗不理了,但是有个利空消息就会进一步放大,晶科要定增大规模扩产,让市场担心光伏内卷,晶科是想大规模过程Topcon,增加产业转型过程中的优势,但是市场认为会产能过剩,随之光伏产业升级,从P型到Topcon等N型,P型肯定会过剩的,组件的价格还会下降,确实对行业整体利润不好。光伏一直有周期性,这种周期性也很难把握。</span></p>\n <p><span>中药指数虽然不断的有波动,但是有企稳的迹象,在大盘持续调整的时候,中药短期企稳,<span>算是<span>今年最有持续性的板块,虽然调整,但还算技术性调整,不是A型调整</span></span><span>。</span></span></p>\n <p><span><strong><span>大道中药指数</span></strong>为<strong><span>1251,涨1.03%,</span></strong></span><span>中药指数右侧迹象越来越明显,不过,还要看大盘,如果大盘持续调整,估计中药也很难独善其身。</span></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3899c7bc32814b3da527ef803dd0219c\"></p>\n <p><span><span></span></span><span><strong><span>大道指数</span></strong>为<strong><span>697,跌1.42%,</span></strong></span><span>大道指数最近跌跌不休。</span><span>。</span></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d096443e633448668e742723ee94bf4e\"></p>\n <p><span>我们来看看</span><strong><span><span>新能源15股指数</span>为</span></strong><span>1936,跌1.9<strong>%</strong></span><strong><span><strong><span><strong><span>。新能源指数今天被光伏带下来了,光伏是受到晶科的惊吓。</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea6aa710c147456e89d273e8a57a6f5d\"></p>\n <p><strong><span>二、上周新能车销量分析,继续向头部集中</span></strong></p>\n <p><span>今天出了上周的上险量</span></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd40aacdfbab41f785656e07937b2e0a\"></p>\n <p><span>有些要点值得解读:</span></p>\n <p><span>1、理想继续是新势力第一,而且最关键,理想是和上周持平的,但是蔚来和小鹏环比上周是下降的。</span></p>\n <p><span>2、在市场增长不大的情况下,<span>上险量在往头部车企集中</span>,</span></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8c4bdb4574426896438bdb2b74c206\"></p>\n <p><span>比亚迪是环比略微增长,从4.43到4.44万</span></p>\n <p><span>特斯拉也是环比增长,从1.28到1.4万</span></p>\n <p><span>挨安也环比增长,从0.85到0.99</span></p>\n <p><span>理想持平</span></p>\n <p><span>其他除了深蓝,都是环比下降的。</span></p>\n <p><span>说明,销量在往头部车企集中,这种集中以后会越来越明显。</span></p>\n <p><span>3、为啥理想是环比持平。</span><span></span></p>\n <p><span>按照李想微博的说法,<strong><span>基本是满产满销,已经达到产能瓶颈</span></strong>,大概是月均3.4万的产能瓶颈,同时平行出口的越来越多,这些是没有反应在上险量上的。</span></p>\n <p><span>所以,我完全相信厂长的说法。按月产3.4万的话,日产不到1100,所以是符合预期的。</span></p>\n <p>0.72万的话,可能有大几百平行出口,实际销量估计在0.8万左右。</p>\n</div></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><div>\n <p><strong><span>声明:</span></strong></p>\n <p><span><strong><span>1)<span>股市有风险,投资需谨慎。文章里提到的所有上市公司,仅作为分析之用,不作为交易参考</span>!</span></strong></span></p>\n <p><span><strong><span>2)<span>本公众号不荐股、不诊股。文章内容和观点仅仅是个人对公司的分析看法,不做估值,仅供阅读,不构成任何投资建议!</span></span></strong></span></p>\n <p><strong><span>一、市场下跌的过程中中药板块企稳</span></strong></p>\n <p><span>这两天大盘持续调整,在寻找市场底的过程中,这个过程会比较难熬,是典型的熊市模态,要耐心等待。</span></p>\n <p><span>这波下跌过程中,新能源已经是狗不理了,但是有个利空消息就会进一步放大,晶科要定增大规模扩产,让市场担心光伏内卷,晶科是想大规模过程Topcon,增加产业转型过程中的优势,但是市场认为会产能过剩,随之光伏产业升级,从P型到Topcon等N型,P型肯定会过剩的,组件的价格还会下降,确实对行业整体利润不好。光伏一直有周期性,这种周期性也很难把握。</span></p>\n <p><span>中药指数虽然不断的有波动,但是有企稳的迹象,在大盘持续调整的时候,中药短期企稳,<span>算是<span>今年最有持续性的板块,虽然调整,但还算技术性调整,不是A型调整</span></span><span>。</span></span></p>\n <p><span><strong><span>大道中药指数</span></strong>为<strong><span>1251,涨1.03%,</span></strong></span><span>中药指数右侧迹象越来越明显,不过,还要看大盘,如果大盘持续调整,估计中药也很难独善其身。</span></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3899c7bc32814b3da527ef803dd0219c\"></p>\n <p><span><span></span></span><span><strong><span>大道指数</span></strong>为<strong><span>697,跌1.42%,</span></strong></span><span>大道指数最近跌跌不休。</span><span>。</span></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d096443e633448668e742723ee94bf4e\"></p>\n <p><span>我们来看看</span><strong><span><span>新能源15股指数</span>为</span></strong><span>1936,跌1.9<strong>%</strong></span><strong><span><strong><span><strong><span>。新能源指数今天被光伏带下来了,光伏是受到晶科的惊吓。</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea6aa710c147456e89d273e8a57a6f5d\"></p>\n <p><strong><span>二、上周新能车销量分析,继续向头部集中</span></strong></p>\n <p><span>今天出了上周的上险量</span></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd40aacdfbab41f785656e07937b2e0a\"></p>\n <p><span>有些要点值得解读:</span></p>\n <p><span>1、理想继续是新势力第一,而且最关键,理想是和上周持平的,但是蔚来和小鹏环比上周是下降的。</span></p>\n <p><span>2、在市场增长不大的情况下,<span>上险量在往头部车企集中</span>,</span></p>\n <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8c4bdb4574426896438bdb2b74c206\"></p>\n <p><span>比亚迪是环比略微增长,从4.43到4.44万</span></p>\n <p><span>特斯拉也是环比增长,从1.28到1.4万</span></p>\n <p><span>挨安也环比增长,从0.85到0.99</span></p>\n <p><span>理想持平</span></p>\n <p><span>其他除了深蓝,都是环比下降的。</span></p>\n <p><span>说明,销量在往头部车企集中,这种集中以后会越来越明显。</span></p>\n <p><span>3、为啥理想是环比持平。</span><span></span></p>\n <p><span>按照李想微博的说法,<strong><span>基本是满产满销,已经达到产能瓶颈</span></strong>,大概是月均3.4万的产能瓶颈,同时平行出口的越来越多,这些是没有反应在上险量上的。</span></p>\n <p><span>所以,我完全相信厂长的说法。按月产3.4万的话,日产不到1100,所以是符合预期的。</span></p>\n <p>0.72万的话,可能有大几百平行出口,实际销量估计在0.8万左右。</p>\n</div></body></html>","text":"声明: 1)股市有风险,投资需谨慎。文章里提到的所有上市公司,仅作为分析之用,不作为交易参考! 2)本公众号不荐股、不诊股。文章内容和观点仅仅是个人对公司的分析看法,不做估值,仅供阅读,不构成任何投资建议! 一、市场下跌的过程中中药板块企稳 这两天大盘持续调整,在寻找市场底的过程中,这个过程会比较难熬,是典型的熊市模态,要耐心等待。 这波下跌过程中,新能源已经是狗不理了,但是有个利空消息就会进一步放大,晶科要定增大规模扩产,让市场担心光伏内卷,晶科是想大规模过程Topcon,增加产业转型过程中的优势,但是市场认为会产能过剩,随之光伏产业升级,从P型到Topcon等N型,P型肯定会过剩的,组件的价格还会下降,确实对行业整体利润不好。光伏一直有周期性,这种周期性也很难把握。 中药指数虽然不断的有波动,但是有企稳的迹象,在大盘持续调整的时候,中药短期企稳,算是今年最有持续性的板块,虽然调整,但还算技术性调整,不是A型调整。 大道中药指数为1251,涨1.03%,中药指数右侧迹象越来越明显,不过,还要看大盘,如果大盘持续调整,估计中药也很难独善其身。 大道指数为697,跌1.42%,大道指数最近跌跌不休。。 我们来看看新能源15股指数为1936,跌1.9%。新能源指数今天被光伏带下来了,光伏是受到晶科的惊吓。 二、上周新能车销量分析,继续向头部集中 今天出了上周的上险量 有些要点值得解读: 1、理想继续是新势力第一,而且最关键,理想是和上周持平的,但是蔚来和小鹏环比上周是下降的。 2、在市场增长不大的情况下,上险量在往头部车企集中, 比亚迪是环比略微增长,从4.43到4.44万 特斯拉也是环比增长,从1.28到1.4万 挨安也环比增长,从0.85到0.99 理想持平 其他除了深蓝,都是环比下降的。 说明,销量在往头部车企集中,这种集中以后会越来越明显。 3、为啥理想是环比持平。 按照李想微博的说法,基本是满产满销,已经达到产能瓶颈,大概是月均3.4万的产能瓶颈,同时平行出口的越来越多,这些是没有反应在上险量上的。 所以,我完全相信厂长的说法。按月产3.4万的话,日产不到1100,所以是符合预期的。 0.72万的话,可能有大几百平行出口,实际销量估计在0.8万左右。","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/209317984546840","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["LU1794554557.SGD","02015","LI","LU1720050803.USD"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1659,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/209834377613376"}
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