美股将回调？答YES的除了大摩，更有看跌40%的经济学家

智通财经2020-12-04

近日，美国股市各大指数屡创新高，纷纷引起各大机构的注意，但是，这样的上涨，也引起了一些分析师和经济学家的担心。摩根士丹利分析师Michael Wilson在近期警告，美国股市近期飙升之后已经超买，恐将面临回调风险。这位分析师在过去一年不断以不可思议的精准度把握了市场的拐点：在3月份危机最严重的时候，当大多数同行都认为美股目前处于末日般的境地时，该分析师开始看涨美股。而当他警告“为未来五周非常...

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精彩评论

伟_3911
2020-12-05
伟_3911
疫情都没打趴下的美股。坚挺着呢
花喵喵
2020-12-05
花喵喵
等着你呢[得意]
今日资本
2020-12-05
今日资本
等你回调
贝哥_6707
2020-12-04
贝哥_6707
赶紧回调我好上车
猛逃
2020-12-04
猛逃
呵呵[抠鼻]
敏敏猪__
2020-12-04
敏敏猪__
天天都说泡沫…

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In addition to Damo, YES also has economists who are 40% bearish.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/162ed68466de4d1488706a20d8891fb0","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"近日，美国股市各大指数屡创新高，纷纷引起各大机构的注意，但是，这样的上涨，也引起了一些分析师和经济学家的担心。\n摩根士丹利分析师Michael Wilson在近期警告，美国股市近期飙升之后已经超买，恐将面临回调风险。\n这位分析师在过去一年不断以不可思议的精准度把握了市场的拐点：在3月份危机最严重的时候，当大多数同行都认为美股目前处于末日般的境地时，该分析师开始看涨美股。\n而当他警告“为未来五周非常困难的交易环境做好准备”时（9月初科技股大跌之后），两周后，他再次正确预测美国股市将迎来数月来的第二次10%的调整：“投资者对于围绕美国大选结果的不确定性有点过于自满，我认为大选结果出炉和出现第二波卫生事件之前美国不太可能通过的财政刺激方案“。随后，标准普尔500指数下跌了9%，纳斯达克指数和罗素2000指数分别下跌了10%和7%。\n之后，在11月初，该分析师改变了看跌的观点，并表示预期的调整目前已经基本结束，建议在股市进一步走弱时逐步加大投资。自那以后，标普指数和纳斯达克指数相继上涨了13.5%和10.8%，纷纷创下历史新高，罗素指数随后也暴涨了16%。\n此外，在一个月前，Wilson表示，尽管标普指数已突破3150至3550的价格区间，但他仍然坚称美股目前仍处于牛市，显然，大多数与疫苗相关的“好消息”都已经被逐步消化。但这并没有阻止股市继续上涨，因为市场注意力已经从疫苗逐渐转移到了国会有关财政刺激方案的辩论上。\n然而，Wilson对此不以为然，他警告称，在2020年剩下的几个星期里，他看到了股市再次下跌的风险，这将是自9月份以来的第三次接近10%的调整。市场也意识到“随着病例数和死亡人数的增加，疫苗在未来3-4个月内将无法进行大规模分发”这一“坏消息”将促进这一趋势的发展。不过，Wilson指出，如果在12月的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上，美联储将延长购买TSY国债的期限，这甚至可能引发美联储进一步的宽松政策，从12个月的角度来看，将仍然看涨美国股市。\n因此，可以看到，Wilson认为重要的是，下跌风险并不是因为股市出现了大幅的上涨，而是10年期美债收益率的上升将冲击科技股和其他创下新高的股票，同时支撑着周期股和价值股。\n\n该分析师表示：“鉴于经济学家预测明年美国名义GDP增长率为7.5%，从12个月的角度来看，1%的10年期美国国债的定价似乎并不是那么合理。这对股票估值将产生一定影响，尤其是像纳斯达克和标准普尔500指数长期股票的估值。相反，较短期限的周期性股票应该会从更好的增长和更高的利率中得到提振。因此，在过去几个月里，随着市场考虑全面重开经济，我们可以看到市场关注点逐渐从纳斯达克转移到了小盘股罗素2000。我们认为，如果我们对经济和利率的判断是正确的，这种转换将持续下去。”\n花旗策略师Robert Buckland也指出，预期美债的抛售将进一步推动成长股的涨势轮动到价值股，投资人将淡化不利的基本面因素，更关注明年的经济复苏，并预期美债收益率将走高。\n自那以后，10年期美债利率继续上涨，并在近期短暂触及到了11月以来的最高点0.96%。\n\n近日，Wilson再次警告称，美股股市已处于超买状态，并在近期飙升后将面临回调风险。\n正如Wilson在一个月前所表示，大多数人都忽视的一个关键风险是，美国国债收益率正继续走高，这可能引发市场不安，进而推低股市。\nWilson在接受采访时指出，“市场已经超买，而且坦率地说，市场估值可能有点过高，因为利率现在终于开始迎头赶上。市场当前面临的风险是，随着10年期美债收益率开始追赶上来，作为长期资产的股票，尤其是美国股票市场，估值将被重置。”\n而对于美股股市走向，各大机构近期也表达了各自的看法。三菱日联分析师Jonathan Butler表示，年末到来，美股继续高涨，市场会变得更倾向于风险，但市场面临着投资者获利了结的风险，并且美股非常依赖于疫苗的表现，实际利率和其它宏观环境则都是利好黄金的。\n著名的经济学家哈里.邓特认为，美国股市是一个巨大的泡沫，未来的一个月，美国股市可能从高点暴跌40%。\n摩根大通首席股票策略师Mislav 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