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Valeriechan

Valeriechan

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2022-02-22

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2022-02-21

回复 @Valeriechan:h//@Valeriechan:6

@小镇做T家:牛市的内在条件已成熟

2022-02-20

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2022-02-18

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2022-02-16

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2022-02-15

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2022-02-14

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2022-02-12

回复 @Valeriechan:h//@Valeriechan:h

@vyaya:$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$My good friend is working in Facebook, all Going well inside their office

if not afraid - buy

2022-02-10

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2022-02-10

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2022-02-05

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2022-02-03

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2022-02-03

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2022-02-01

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2022-01-31

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2022-01-28

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2022-01-27

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2022-01-25

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为什么这么说？因为1月份的货币供应量显示【年度流动性大底】已悄然而至，再加上1月份已经出现的【年度情绪大底】，这两个最重要的市场风向标均已迎来七年一度的底部。 那么剩下的，就是【年度行情】的兑现了。 何为年度流动性大底？ 长期流动性的核心指标，就是【M1-M2增速差】。 先简单介绍一下基本概念：M1、M2都是货币供应量（即流动性）指标，再加上一个M0，构成了货币供应量三兄弟，它们三个是包含与被包含的关系。M3因为不常用所以我们略过不讲。 M0、M1、M2是根据流动性(变现能力)来划分的。 M0最小，它特指流通中的现金，所以流动性最大。 M1=M0 ＋ 可开支票进行支付的单位活期存款。单位活期存款也是能够随时变现的，所以流动性虽不及M0，但要大于M2。 M2=M1 ＋ 居民储蓄存款 ＋ 单位定期存款 ＋ 单位其他存款 ＋ 证券公司客户保证金。（M2不都是随时可以提取出来的，代表的是未来潜在的购买力） 概念介绍完毕，进入正题： 如果M1增速大于M2增速，说明流动性较强的部分比如活期存款增速更快，意味着企业的活期存款增速大于定期存款增速，企业和居民交易活跃，微观主体盈利能力较强，经济景气度上升，投资意愿强，比如企业和个人愿意将流动资金用于买股票。 相反，如果M1增速小于M2增速，说明表明企业和居民选择将资金以定期的形式存在银行，微观个体盈利能力下降，未来可选择的投资机会有限，钱不愿意进入实体循环中，都堆积在金融体系内，活期存款大量转变为较高利息的定期存款。也就是不愿意投资了，选择躺平吃银行利息。 所以我们可以发现：【M1-M2增速差】和股市走势密切相关。在【M1-M2增速差】上涨期间，股市往往是上行趋势；在【M1-M2增速差】下跌期间，股市往往是下行趋势。 尤其是当【M1-M2增速差】负值","listText":"这是「小镇做T家」的第 114 篇原创内容。 1月份的货币供应量数据一出，牛市已隐约可见。 为什么这么说？因为1月份的货币供应量显示【年度流动性大底】已悄然而至，再加上1月份已经出现的【年度情绪大底】，这两个最重要的市场风向标均已迎来七年一度的底部。 那么剩下的，就是【年度行情】的兑现了。 何为年度流动性大底？ 长期流动性的核心指标，就是【M1-M2增速差】。 先简单介绍一下基本概念：M1、M2都是货币供应量（即流动性）指标，再加上一个M0，构成了货币供应量三兄弟，它们三个是包含与被包含的关系。M3因为不常用所以我们略过不讲。 M0、M1、M2是根据流动性(变现能力)来划分的。 M0最小，它特指流通中的现金，所以流动性最大。 M1=M0 ＋ 可开支票进行支付的单位活期存款。单位活期存款也是能够随时变现的，所以流动性虽不及M0，但要大于M2。 M2=M1 ＋ 居民储蓄存款 ＋ 单位定期存款 ＋ 单位其他存款 ＋ 证券公司客户保证金。（M2不都是随时可以提取出来的，代表的是未来潜在的购买力） 概念介绍完毕，进入正题： 如果M1增速大于M2增速，说明流动性较强的部分比如活期存款增速更快，意味着企业的活期存款增速大于定期存款增速，企业和居民交易活跃，微观主体盈利能力较强，经济景气度上升，投资意愿强，比如企业和个人愿意将流动资金用于买股票。 相反，如果M1增速小于M2增速，说明表明企业和居民选择将资金以定期的形式存在银行，微观个体盈利能力下降，未来可选择的投资机会有限，钱不愿意进入实体循环中，都堆积在金融体系内，活期存款大量转变为较高利息的定期存款。也就是不愿意投资了，选择躺平吃银行利息。 所以我们可以发现：【M1-M2增速差】和股市走势密切相关。在【M1-M2增速差】上涨期间，股市往往是上行趋势；在【M1-M2增速差】下跌期间，股市往往是下行趋势。 尤其是当【M1-M2增速差】负值","text":"这是「小镇做T家」的第 114 篇原创内容。 1月份的货币供应量数据一出，牛市已隐约可见。 为什么这么说？因为1月份的货币供应量显示【年度流动性大底】已悄然而至，再加上1月份已经出现的【年度情绪大底】，这两个最重要的市场风向标均已迎来七年一度的底部。 那么剩下的，就是【年度行情】的兑现了。 何为年度流动性大底？ 长期流动性的核心指标，就是【M1-M2增速差】。 先简单介绍一下基本概念：M1、M2都是货币供应量（即流动性）指标，再加上一个M0，构成了货币供应量三兄弟，它们三个是包含与被包含的关系。M3因为不常用所以我们略过不讲。 M0、M1、M2是根据流动性(变现能力)来划分的。 M0最小，它特指流通中的现金，所以流动性最大。 M1=M0 ＋ 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